Ultimately, if risks materialise, could one of the options be a further extension of the programme into 2019? As our President, Mario Draghi, said last week, the asset purchase programme is now an integral part of our “toolbox". It is definitely an option, but, last week, we announced our anticipation of the end of net asset purchases, which reflects our confidence that inflation is on course to reach levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Well, are you being vigilant? We are alert to the tail risks that may, for example, stem from protectionism and, potentially, from an associated sharp fall in confidence. Might another option be to increase the monthly pace of purchases for the last three months of the year, to purchase more than € billion, if the situation deteriorates? The asset purchase programme remains an integral part of our “toolbox". This being said, our monetary policy decisions altogether maintain the current ample degree of monetary accommodation that is still needed for inflation to converge towards our aim. This includes, first, our enhanced forward guidance on interest rates, which we expect will remain at their present levels at least through the summer of 2019 and in any case for as long as necessary, and, second, our very large stock of assets for which we intend to reinvest the principal payments from maturing securities. The reinvestment policy plays a very important role, as the amounts are sizeable. How long will the reinvestments last?
The GDP deflator would increase by 0.7%, whereby the rise in nominal GDP would be around 2.6% compared with the potentially meagre end-2014 figure of 1%. Overall, these forecasts coincide with those on which analysts concur, although the latter generally involve a somewhat lesser fiscal effort than envisaged in the Draft Budget. The macroeconomic setting accompanying the Draft Budget is subject to downside risks, owing to the uncertainty surrounding international and, in particular, European economic developments. It is against this macroeconomic and financial background that the Draft State and Social Security Budget for 2015 was unveiled in late September. Before continuing, I should point out that, along with the Draft Budget, the Budgetary Plan for 2015 was presented in October. The Banco de España considers that the preparation and publication of this Plan is a most valuable step forward for the control and transparency of our public finances. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  The Budgetary Plan for 2015 includes information on the budgetary planning of the regional and local governments, and it thus offers a view of overall general government conduct. The Budgetary Plan is important because it fills a substantial information gap: the lack of integrated information relating to all general government activity at a time at which a new budgetary cycle is beginning. Given that its publication marks the main change since my appearance in Parliament in October, I shall now focus on its content. Budgetary programming foresees, firstly, fulfilment of the budget deficit target for 2014, at 5.5% of GDP.