The brief examines the relationship between trend inflation and commodity price increases and finds that evidence from recent decades supports the notion that commodity price changes do not affect the long-run inflation rate. Evidence from earlier decades suggests that effects on inflation expectations and wages played a key role in whether commodity price movements altered trend inflation. 2  Readers may be interested in “Oil and the Macroeconomy in a Changing World,” the proceedings of a 2010 symposium held at the Boston Fed to explore the interactions between energy prices, growth, and inflation – the determinants of oil prices and about the effect that oil prices have on the world economy. The proceedings are available at http://www.bostonfed.org/economic/conf/oil2010/index.htm  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The impact of recent supply shocks Now that you know my basic take on this key – and current – economic debate, allow me to flesh out my perspective with the supporting data and analysis. The full impact of the recent shocks to supply that I mentioned at the outset will likely emerge over time. But clearly there have been significant increases in a variety of food and energy prices. As Figure 1 illustrates, the recent turmoil in the Middle East has contributed to a significant increase in oil prices, which have risen to over $ a barrel.
The question that arises today is: which systems could become more efficient or offer greater possibilities as a result of technical decentralisation? In the field of regulation and supervision conducted by the ACPR, we applied the same principles. Take the case of Artificial Intelligence (AI). How do we concretely define the conditions for a controlled development of artificial intelligence and define the principles of its control? It is in this spirit that we designed our IA workshops: the ACPR FinTech experts and the Banque de France data scientists met established players to understand their perception of these technologies and assess their level of maturity. In the areas of AML-CFT, internal models and consumer protection, the lessons learned from these meetings and tests under production conditions will provide us with crucial information for building a future framework conducive to controlling the development of Artificial Intelligence. (iii) Aware of the importance of the issues and clairvoyant as to their complexity, ready to change our regulation and the exercise of our missions, we must also be bold, that is to say, innovative. To conclude this speech, I would like to stress two important elements. First, European financial sovereignty does not depend solely on the authorities of its Member States or on the regulations drawn up by the European Commission; it depends first and foremost on the vitality of the European ecosystem and on the innovation effort of all players, be they established or new.