The fan chart is designed to strike the right balance between these two hazards, by giving a broad brush articulation of the distribution that the Committee judges appropriate. But there is always room for improvement. So we turn to some of the ideas we have considered for providing additional information on particular aspects of the distribution, to help deal with some of these difficulties. For example, the next chart shows how the distribution has changed since the previous forecast by placing the two distributions side by side, as in [Slide 15]. This chart shows that the most likely outcome in the dark red band has shifted down compared with the earlier forecast. But that change in the most likely outcome is not reflected to the same degree in the rest of the fan chart – and that is because there has been an offsetting upwards shift in the balance of risks. This is most clearly seen by noting how the dark line is flatter than the light one on the right hand side of the chart, and steeper than it is on the left. As we discussed earlier, the aim of MPC communication is to convey useful information about the broad distribution, without being driven to spurious accuracy. There are many ways we can do this. One idea that we are investigating is to show charts of the MPC’s view of the probability that inflation will be above the 2% target at a particular point in time. This is shown in [Slide 16].
I am sure, ladies and gentlemen, that you are going to enjoy and benefit from the quality, both in substance and in form, of the address that Governor Noyer is about to give. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1