This was around a tenth more than we estimated at the most recent monetary policy meeting. A large part of the decline is due to the fall in mortgage rates and energy prices. Underlying inflation measured as the CPIF, which excludes changes in mortgage rates, amounted to 2.1 per cent in January. This underlying inflation has also fallen in recent months, but not as much as CPI inflation. If one also excludes energy prices, underlying inflation amounted to 2.4 per cent in January. Food prices increased by around 5 per cent in January and are still holding up inflation. We see ahead of us that CPI inflation will continue to fall over the coming six months and that it will become negative for a large part of the year. But the heavy fall is mainly due to our cutting the repo rate, which means that mortgage rates fall. In addition, energy prices will be lower than one year ago, which will also push down inflation. At the beginning of 2010 the rate of increase of the CPI will quickly rise again and be over 3 per cent at the end of 2011. I shall return to this a little later. 6  BIS Review 25/2009  Underlying inflation measured as the CPIF excluding energy is calculated to be close to 2 per cent during the forecast period.
I know of no sure way of predicting what will happen, but my personal view is that the internet is likely to emerge more as a channel to build on existing relationships and to increase the efficiency of basic services than as something which changes the landscape of the banking industry. But perhaps I am guilty of thinking that everyone else possesses the same inertia as I do when it comes to changing one's habits. Concluding remarks I have skimmed over a few issues which can rather loosely be said to fall under the heading of banking and development. There are many experts attending this symposium who will, I am sure, offer much deeper and more provocative insights into the economic outlook in general, and the relationship between financial development and growth in particular. I wish you all a fruitful and enjoyable couple of days. 4  BIS Review 59/2001