Svein Gjedrem: Current monetary policy issues in Norway  Speech by Mr Svein Gjedrem, Governor of Norges Bank, at the General Meeting of ACI Norway, held in Tromsø, on 19 August 2000. *  *  *  Introduction I would like to start by expressing my thanks for being given the opportunity to give this presentation of monetary policy in Norway. I will start my presentation with a brief review of the basis for monetary policy, and will go on to mention some of the considerations and reasoning behind Norges Bank’s recent setting of interest rates. Finally, I will turn to certain structural features of particular importance to developments in the capital account balance which can shed light on the relationship between the setting of interest rates in Norway and international interest rate developments. The basis for monetary policy The chart shows movements in the krone exchange rate between 1980 and the present. There have been three major crossroads since 1986. Chart 1 Krone exchange rate  •  Following the last devaluation in May 1986, the Norwegian authorities decided to introduce a fixed exchange rate system for the krone. The monetary policy authorities bound themselves to the mast. Under this system, the interest rate was to be set solely with the aim of maintaining exchange rate stability within narrow margins. At the same time, the krone was supported through extensive exchange-market interventions. The fixed exchange rate system led to a gradual slowing of price inflation.
The accumulation of capital in the Petroleum Fund serves as a channel for distributing oil revenues among generations and contributes to stable government finances in the long term. The larger the Petroleum Fund is, the less dependent we will be on petroleum revenues in the future. The Petroleum Fund shall also serve as a buffer against short-term fluctuations in oil revenues. As large portions of the revenues from oil activities accrue to the state, fluctuations in oil prices and oil revenues will primarily result in changes in allocations to the Petroleum Fund. Since all of the capital in the Petroleum Fund is invested abroad, such changes will in principle not influence the level of activity in the economy. This makes the Norwegian economy more robust to fluctuations in oil prices and thus less dependent on oil, even in the short run. 11  BIS Review 67/2000  Chart 11 Petroleum activity in 2000  We may say that oil revenues enter the Norwegian economy through an external and internal circular flow. The distinction between the external and internal circular flow is important for exchange rate stability. This means, among other things, that short-term changes in oil prices shall not influence the orientation of economic policy. If the distinction between the two circular flows were to break down, and the use of oil revenues were to fluctuate more in step with oil prices, we would have an unstable economy, and hence an unstable exchange rate.