On the one hand, further integration of labour, product and capital markets can be expected to reduce economic heterogeneity within the euro area. On the other hand, some degree of heterogeneity can be expected to remain and, indeed, it can be considered a natural feature of any monetary union. These propositions raise several important questions, for example: •  What kind of convergence processes has EMU set in motion? •  To what extent has EMU-induced convergence moderated economic heterogeneity within the euro area? •  What are the causes and consequences of sometimes sizeable and in some cases persistent inflation and output growth divergences across different euro area countries, in a macroeconomic environment shaped by the ECB’s monetary policy, which aims to preserve price stability for the euro area as a whole? These questions, which will be addressed in this workshop, relate to diverse but interrelated issues, such as trade integration, business cycle synchronisation, financial integration, structural reforms in product and labour markets, as well as inflation persistence and inflation differentials. I believe that the quality of the papers to be presented and the impressive group of discussants, chairpersons and panellists will contribute to fruitful debates. Looking at the titles of the various sessions of the workshop, I would like to share some thoughts with you on three specific topics. The first relates to the consequences of market integration for trade. The second, “closer to home” for a central banker, concerns inflation and output divergences across euro area countries and their implications for policy.
As elsewhere in Central and Eastern Europe, in Romania too the vulnerabilities exposed by the crisis in the model of centralised fund management at the level of cross-border banking groups led to a new paradigm, which emphasises the local funding of credit activities. The cross-border deleveraging which accompanied this switch, while sizeable, has nevertheless unfolded in an orderly manner. The shift towards the domestic market in terms of financing sources was accompanied by an increase in the relative importance of local currency-denominated loans: after a long time, their share exceeded 45 percent and will possibly overtake foreign currency lending by the end of the year. This is, undoubtedly, a positive development for both debtors, who avoid currency risk exposure, and central banks, due to the increased effectiveness of monetary policy. Looking ahead, the constraints on both credit supply and demand are expected to continue to prevail, as the effects of a balance-sheet crisis, such as the one we have recently encountered, tend to be longer-lasting. In such an environment, the quality of credit allocation appears more important than the volume, although the latter is not at all irrelevant in our case given a still low financial intermediation at 31.7 percent of GDP (not even during the credit boom period did it exceed 40 percent). In order to put the economy onto a self-sustained growth path, I believe it is necessary for banks to channel credit to productive investment, avoiding the overburdening of good debtors with the costs of past misallocations.