Indeed, an industry has grown up geared to guessing MPC members' personal habits, psychoanalysing our personalities and classifying us into different species of the aviary. But it is important to recognise, I think, that disagreements are evidence of the strength of the system, not its weakness. Economic analysis involves a great deal of peering into the future, so it is not surprising that there should be differences of view. And the opportunity to explore and explain these differences in a rational and open way is an important part of getting to a better answer. The outlook for the economy Let me turn now to an assessment of the economy. The recent debate has, of course, been dominated by discussion of the implications of the terrorist attack on the United States, and the political and military response. The loss of life was grievous. Few of us will forget the sights we saw on our TV sets that day. And for those most closely involved the feelings must still be of the utmost intensity. Standing back, from an economic perspective I would say that the most serious impact has been on sentiment, particularly in the United States. Consumer confidence there has fallen quite sharply. Equity prices dipped in the immediate aftermath of the attack, the sterling price of oil has fallen by some 18% since the start of September, and credit spreads have risen. Of course, equities have since rallied strongly, with the FTSE100 for example now back above its pre-September 11th levels. But substantial uncertainties remain.
Philipp M Hildebrand: Ten theories on the economic relationship Switzerland Europe Summary of a speech by Dr Philipp M Hildebrand, Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, to the Arbeitgeberverband Basel, Basel, 8 September 2004. The complete speech can be found in German on the Swiss National Bank’s website (www.snb.ch). *  *  *  The relationship between Switzerland and the EU is close in so many ways that it appears almost stronger than that among many member states themselves. The debate on a possible integration into the EU as a logical consequence should be as broad-based as possible. Economically speaking, the issue has become more pressing since the introduction of the euro, as Switzerland is now surrounded by a single-currency area. Switzerland’s weaker economic growth is also frequently quoted as an argument in favour of integration, since the necessary domestic structural reforms would then be easier to realise. However, one tends to overlook the fact that the national authorities would continue to be responsible for implementing reforms and that, moreover, the absorption potential of autonomous monetary and fiscal policies would be forfeited. Even with an independent policy, Switzerland is in a position to outperform if it again focuses on its strengths of flexibility and openness. The independent monetary policy has helped to keep inflation in Switzerland at a low level for decades. This and the diversification properties of the Swiss franc make capital cheaper in Switzerland by approximately 1.5 percentage points (interest premium).