Let us have a step-by-step look at these channels of influence of globalisation on the monetary policy. Re 1) The growing share of international trade in the global output as well as the increasing international capital flows cause a situation, where the growth rate of a national economy depends increasingly on the developments of the global economy. To illustrate the impact of globalisation on the economic prospects, attention should be drawn to the hot topic in the macroeconomic policy, namely the problem of global imbalances. To give you some facts, the US current account deficit had been growing gradually over the past years to exceed USD 800 billion, i.e. 6.5% of the U.S. GDP, last year. This deficit, which represents import of savings from the rest of the world to the USA, is financed by the Asian central banks, for example the Peoples Bank of China, and by oil-exporting countries. The available forecasts show that the deficit will continue to grow. An animated debate is currently underway to determine whether this is a steady situation that simply reflects the new principles in the global economy 5 , or whether this trend is bound to stop and reverse sooner or later, which may entail a significant increase in the US long-term interest rates, a strong depreciation of the US dollar and a serious slowdown in the global economic growth. The majority of empirical and theoretical studies indicates a growing probability of the latter scenario, especially if no due steps are taken in many countries.
To recapitulate this train of thought, Kohn was very sceptical whether the three above-mentioned conditions can be sufficiently met; however, he did not preclude that in the future, the understanding of economic processes will improve as much as to enable running the extra action policy where reasonable. Numerous statements following the presentation have indicated that the proper supervision is much better a response to the asset bubbles and many people have stressed that this is why the financial markets supervision should be independent of politicians, as it may be necessary to take actions aimed to restrict the speed of the speculative bubbles build-up , when this does not suit certain politicians due to the elections cycle. The majority of lectures which are delivered over the series of seminars by the Centre for European Regional and Local Studies and the UNESCO Chair at Warsaw University apply to the issues vital for local communities. The title of today’s seminar might suggest that we have discussed problems vital for the global economy and not for a local community, a city, a region or a university/higher education institution. This is not the case, however, as in the years to come the globalisation of manufacturing, services, investments, finances, the labour market and knowledge will progress, irrespective of the scale of national protectionism. The globalisation results will be thus felt by all: countries, regions, local communities and individuals. If we want to succeed, both as a country and as each and every one of us, we must be well prepared for globalisation.