The tightening so far in the 1990s has been of roughly the same magnitude. By contrast, we are now looking at a permanent change in the government surplus. This scenario is not entirely improbable. A pause in growth lies ahead for the Norwegian economy, and we must expect some increase in unemployment. This will quickly translate into demands for expanded public sector activity. The government has some room for manoeuvre to address this challenge by boosting public expenditure or cutting taxes. However, our calculations show that in the course of a few years an expansionary fiscal policy could lead to a substantial reduction in the government’s scope for manoeuvre. What I want to demonstrate is that pursuing such a policy now – assuming that the oil price remains low – would have a major impact on the ability of the government to finance the welfare society. As we see, it would not result in any increase in the budget surplus in the next few years. On the contrary, the surplus would gradually be reduced, and in about 10 years the budget would begin to show a deficit. The Petroleum Fund would suffer a sad fate and would be depleted in 18 years. This is just an illustration, however. Developments would compel a shift in fiscal policy long before the Petroleum Fund is depleted. But that in turn would mean that the state would not have the scope for manoeuvre to stimulate total employment.
Available indicators suggest that there has been a gradual recovery since mid-2015, which continued in the second half of 2016. A key factor here is improved business and household sentiment in the euro area and other advanced economies, which in turn creates a more favourable environment for the Swiss export industry. Overall, the signals from the economic indicators are consistent with our previous GDP growth forecast of around 1.5% for 2016 as a whole. Developments on the labour market support this view. Employment statistics show that the number of jobs in Switzerland grew in the third quarter, too. Up until November, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for this year was stable at 3.3%. The outlook for the coming year is cautiously optimistic. Over the course of 2017, export demand looks set to gradually strengthen further. For the export industry, this will mean better capacity utilisation and less pressure on margins. We are also expecting a gradual recovery on the labour market. Various surveys confirm this assessment. Together with our continued expansionary monetary policy, labour market developments should boost domestic demand. Private consumption, too, is likely to once again make a greater contribution to economic growth. Overall, as for 2016, the SNB expects GDP growth for 2017 to be roughly 1.5%. However, the Swiss economy will also face some major challenges in the coming year. Structural change continues to affect several important industries. Retailing is having to contend with changes both to distribution channels and the spending habits of households.