In real terms, this rate of growth is in line with that estimated in our September projections under scenario 1 (7.3%). In nominal terms it is somewhat higher than the Banco de España’s projection, as it assumes a GDP deflator that is 0.2 pp higher. In any event, as I have already indicated, all these growth projections, including those underpinning the Draft Budget, are subject to considerable downside risk. This risk is still difficult to quantify, considering the course the pandemic has taken in recent weeks and the new social distancing measures introduced to contain it, in Spain and in our main European trading partners. This will foreseeably have a negative impact on economic momentum in Spain in the coming months. In addition, we cannot rule out the possibility either that, in the near future, it may be necessary to adopt more stringent lockdown measures than those that are currently in place. It is important to note that although the Banco de España’s September projections did not include many of the other measures contained in the Draft Budget not directly linked to the NGEU programme – given that these measures had not been specified at that date – the 15  upside risks to growth in 2021 arising from their inclusion would be relatively small. This is because the expansionary tone of this Draft Budget derives almost exclusively from the funds available under the NGEU programme.
He does this difficult job with immense grace and diplomatic skill. He is also the "sports captain", among central bankers, and organises the annual Governor’s Cup at a very fine golf course close to the Franco-Swiss border. In addition, Andrew doubles up as our gastronomic and oenological consultant at the informal social events that are an important part of any international gathering. Andrew has been a staunch supporter of Hong Kong and the HKMA for a very long time – indeed, formerly as an Executive Director of the Bank of England, he played an instrumental role in the conception of the HKMA. Since he became General Manager of the BIS in 1994, the HKMA’s ties with the BIS have gone from strength to strength. We joined the BIS as a shareholder in 1996. In 1998, Hong Kong became the location of the BIS’s first overseas office – an office which has become extremely active in this region, with its most recent event being the organisation in Hong Kong of a major BIS Governors’ meeting, held just this last weekend. In 1999, Hong Kong was invited, as one of the four non-G10 economies, to join the Financial Stability Forum, which Andrew chairs: this forum has the job of proposing reforms to the international financial architecture, and it is making good progress in this herculean task.