Productivity growth (GDP per hour worked) 1981-2003, per cent 4  4  Productivity growth 3  Long-term development  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  81-90: 1.2%  91-94: 2.1%  95-00: 2.4%  01-03: 2.2%  -1  1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Figure 3. Change in number of hours worked 1981-2003, per cent 3  3  Change in hours worked Long-term development  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2  -3  -3 -4  -4 -5  81-90: 1.0%  91-94: -2.1%  95-00: 0.9%  01-03: -0.7%  -5  1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  BIS Review 64/2004  9  Figure 4. Population growth and change in age group 20-64 years in the population 1981-2020 (forecast 2004-2020), per cent 1.0  1.0  0.5  0.5  0.0  0.0  Population growth Growth in age group 20-64 years 2019  2017  2015  2013  2011  2009  2007  2005  2003  2001  1999  1997  1995  1993  1991  1989  1987  1985  1983  -0.5 1981  -0.5  Source: Statistics Sweden  Figure 5.
Other factors could also have an impact during the course of 2008, for instance, via a decline in the total wage bill paid by the sector. Against this backdrop, Swiss GDP growth is likely to settle at around 2% in 2008. This easing-off should allow for a reduction in the level of capacity utilisation. In a moment I will outline the risks attached to our baseline scenario. BIS Review 150/2007  1  Developments in monetary and financial conditions Since the onset of the sub-prime credit crisis in August, yields on long-term Swiss Confederation bonds have remained almost unchanged. For 10-year maturities, the rate has fluctuated around 3%. For shorter maturity bonds, however, the search for quality investments has resulted in a drop in rates. Yields on two-year maturities, for instance, have fallen from 3.0% to 2.0%. However, this decline has been partly offset or even fully neutralised by an increase in risk premiums, in particular in the case of issuers with poor ratings. Since September, the depreciation in the US dollar has accelerated. The Swiss franc has also strengthened a little against the euro, although the movements were more volatile in nature. Monetary and financial conditions can also be analysed in terms of volumes. Special attention should be given to commercial lending, since a shortage of credit in the current circumstances would be equivalent to a tightening in monetary conditions. However, no effect of this kind can be identified in Switzerland, not even in the most recent statistics.