I’ll also go into some detail about the outlook for inflation. Finally, I’ll discuss what this means for monetary policy and the road ahead. Before I continue, I need to give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System. Economic Outlook I’ll start by saying that the headline of our economic story is good news: the recovery continues to show solid momentum. But the subheading is that we’ll need to be patient. Even with the strong pace of growth we experienced much of this year, a full recovery from the pandemic will take time to complete. The adjustment to rapidly changing circumstances, along with a resurgence in COVID-19 cases, is affecting consumer spending and jobs, sustaining supply bottlenecks in sectors such as autos, and delaying a full reopening of the service sector. So, to continue with the news analogy, here’s the lede: I expect gross domestic product, or GDP, to increase around 5 ½ to 6 percent this year. My current forecast accounts for strong growth in the first half of 2021, but also balances some slowing of growth in the remainder of the year relative to the first half. Now I’ll turn to employment, something I know many of you as business leaders watch closely. Job gains by and large have been strong in recent months.
John C Williams: Business more like usual Remarks (via videoconference) by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the Economic Club of New York, 27 September 2021. * * * As prepared for delivery Thank you for that kind introduction. It’s a great honor for me to be addressing members of the Economic Club of New York today, the first time I’m doing so since becoming the Club’s Chair. Today’s event was scheduled to take place in person, and we were really looking forward to the opportunity to come together. But predicting the future is nearly impossible, and here we are meeting virtually. I say it’s “nearly” impossible to predict the future because I plan to share my outlook for the U.S. economy with you all over the next few minutes! We’re not the only ones that expected business to be “more like usual” at this point in time. But the direct and indirect effects of the virus continue to shape the way we live our lives, do our work, and come together with others. On top of that, signs of the Delta variant’s impact are showing up in the incoming data, contributing to more uncertainty about the future. Business, in fact, is unusual in many ways, and continues to reflect the extraordinary nature of the pandemic. In my remarks today I’ll share more about how these effects relate to the economic outlook for the nation and right here in New York.