It is quite simply impossible to make any reliable forecasts for two and three years ahead. My opinion is that it is normally fairly meaningless to have a firm opinion of what will happen in two and three years’ time. But there are exceptions, particularly in situations where resource utilisation is very low. During 2008–2009 we assessed that the repo rate would be at an exceptionally low level for one year and we backed this up by lending around SEK 300 billion to the banks at this low interest rate for one year. We should continue to report a main scenario for economic developments and the repo rate over the coming three years, a scenario where inflation approaches 2 per cent and resource utilisation approaches a normal level. But we should regard this merely as a potential scenario. It is important that monetary policy follows a predictable pattern. We endeavour to avoid surprising the market. This means that we normally change the repo rate and the reporate path in gradual small steps, where the steps are due to new information received since the most recent monetary policy meeting, and that we react in roughly the same way to the same type of changes in the new information. Such stability means that we can avoid causing problems on the financial markets, and that we can have a greater impact on the markets when an unexpected event occurs. We should also continue to analyse the consequences of various sequences of events.
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  Figure 11. Lending to households and companies Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted 20  20  Lending to households Lending to companies  15  15  Total  10  10  5  5  0  0  -5  -5  -10  -10 99  00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  Source: The Riksbank  Figure 12. Market surprise at repo-rate decision Basis points 50  50  0  0  -50  -50  -100  -100  -150  -150 Change in the repo rate  Feb 07 Mar 07 May 07 Jun 07 Sep 07 Oct 07 Dec 07 Feb 08 Apr 08 Jul 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 Feb 09 Apr 09 Jul 09 Sep 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10 Jul 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Dec 10 Feb 11 Apr 11 Jul 11 Sep 11 Oct 11  Market surprise  -200  -200  Note. The market surprise is measured on the basis of the change in the interest rate for a 1-month STINA swap in connection with the publication of the repo-rate decision. Sources: Reuters and the Riksbank  16  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 13.