Several antecedents point to investment significantly outperforming our September estimate, including important upward revisions in the Corporation of Capital Goods’ (CBC) Project Survey, the behavior of capital goods imports, the evolution of more expansionary conditions of credit supply and demand (Bank Credit Survey) and qualitative information from our Business Perceptions Report (IPN). Thus, for 2019, our gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) growth forecast rises to 6% (4.5% in September), and for 2020 the near 4% figures are maintained. The case of mining investment is analyzed in detail in Box III.2 of the Report. According to the latest survey of the CBC—released in mid-October—for the period 2018-2021 investment expenditure of the mining projects it covers went from about 5.40 billion dollars to 10.60 billion. The greatest differences are concentrated in the years 2019 and 2020, when the surveyed investment is about 3.5 billion dollars higher than previously expected. This leap is the result of including a small number of projects that have advanced in their realization, but whose scope causes ripple effects in the baseline scenario. For 2018, where the incremental effect of the new survey is more limited, it is expected that Mining GFCF will increase 18% annually (just over 3 percentage points more than projected in September). For 2019, its annual expansion rate is revised from 7% in the September Report to 16% in our current estimate.
I will not name the bank here, because the HKMA is currently a tenant in a building that bears its name. To avoid giving the impression that the HKMA is a subsidiary of that bank, we have always tried to pretend that the building is called something else, by refraining from mentioning the name on our stationery, or to deliverymen or taxi-drivers, or to anyone else. It is sufficient to say that the bank in question is this year celebrating its 100th anniversary in Hong Kong. Steve has gone to the opposite end of the two-corner solution by entering the floating world of academics and consultants. Since leaving the Reserve Bank of Australia six months ago, he has taken up an appointment as Adjunct Professor at the National Centre for Development Studies at the Australian National University. He also works as an economic consultant, mainly, I understand, on Asia-related topics. Whatever corner Stan and Steve have chosen, the important thing is that they will continue to give their expertise to the region through organisations which, though very different, have an important presence in Asia. They are also here to share that expertise with us today. So without further delay, let me welcome them both and call first upon our speaker, Dr Stanley Fischer, to deliver the Fifth HKMA Distinguished Lecture. Dr Fischer, please. 2  BIS Review 33/2002