Add to this the persistence of the expansionary impulse from monetary policy, as can be seen by simple observation of the interest rates of consumer, commercial or mortgage loans, which are all at or very near their all-time lows. Moreover, different qualitative measures produced by the Bank, such as the Banking Credit Survey or the Business Perceptions Report, coincide in their favorable evaluation of the cost of credit, considering its low interest rate. Another way to measure the expansionary nature of monetary policy is to review how far or near the MPR is from its estimated neutral level, which we place between 4% and 4.5%. Therefore, a 2.5% MPR is clearly expansionary and, in our baseline scenario, we assume that we will come near the neutral level only by 2020. Furthermore, beyond the comparison with market rates or their neutral levels, Chile's monetary policy rate is among the lowest when compared to its Latin American peers or with other commodity-exporting countries with a similar macroeconomic framework (figure 3). The better prospects for 2018 growth also rely on the recovery of non-mining investment, including construction and other works, whose decline seems to be ending after one and a half years, which combines with a moderate growth in consumption (figure 4). All this is backed by improved consumer and business confidence indicators, which becomes all the more evident when referring to expectations about the future. These factors are not necessarily independent of each other, so it is difficult to quantify the importance of each one precisely.
Joseph Yam: Asia’s ability to cope with the continuing challenges of globalisation Statement by Mr Joseph Yam, Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority and Alternate Governor on the Board of Directors of the Asian Development Bank, at the 37th Asian Development Bank Annual Meeting, Jeju Island, Korea, 15-17 May 2004. *  *  *  Mr President, I join other Governors in: first, thanking the Government and the people of the Republic of Korea for their warm hospitality in hosting this year’s Annual Meeting; secondly, thanking the Bank’s management and staff for the excellent arrangements made; and thirdly, welcoming our two new members - Luxembourg and Palau. Mr President, on the governance of the Bank, I would like to commend the Bank for adopting a number of reform initiatives in the past year to enhance accountability and efficacy of operations. Greater transparency and accountability in all aspects of the Bank’s operation is to be welcomed. Measuring, monitoring and managing development results are essential. The creation of the independent Operations Evaluation Department will enhance the credibility of the Bank’s achievements. These initiatives will put the Bank in a stronger position in meeting the many tasks ahead. On the region, Mr President, I would like to focus just on the continuing challenges arising from globalisation and the ability, or rather the lack of ability, of Asia in coping with them. The Asian financial turmoil of 1997-98 demonstrated this vehemently.