Figure 12 Activity gap (1) (2)  Current account: Savings and investment (3)  (level, percentage points)  (percent of annual GDP)  8 Jun.22 MP Report  Sep.22 MP Report  4  32  0  24  -4  16  -8  8  -12  0  -16  -8 19  20  21  22  23  24  External savings Private savings Investment  13  15  Government savings National savings Current account  17  19  21  23(f)  (1) Dotted lines represent forecasts. (2) Projection uses structural parameters updated in June 2021 MP Report (trend) with methodological revision of potential GDP. (3) The government savings component takes as effective data up until 2021 the general government balance sheet; for 2022 to 2024, government savings in the central government balance sheet is used as a projection. (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.
In the local financial market, the exchange rate, interest rates, and the risk premium have shown greater volatility than is observed in other economies. Worth noting is the peso/dollar parity, which by mid-July experienced unusually high swings, with a marked divergence from its external determinants, causing distortions in the functioning of the markets and leading the Central Bank to announce an intervention program (box I.2). Upon said announcement tensions in the price formation process in the foreign exchange market eased, with a decrease in volatility and in the exchange rate. Compared to the statistical close of the June Report, the peso depreciated in both nominal and real terms (figure 10). Projections The central scenario does not consider a specific effect of the plebiscite outcome on the economy. It does assume that uncertainty will gradually subside in the coming quarters, in the midst of a process where institutional changes continue, allowing institutions and the economy to function properly. 4  In the central scenario, headline inflation is estimated to be near its peak for this cycle, which it is still expected to occur in the third quarter of this year. In the coming months, prices will begin to slow down the pace of increases compared to previous months, so that annual inflation will begin to gradually decline. Inflation projection for the end of 2022 and all throughout 2023 is revised upwards with respect to our last Report, due to the additional depreciation of the peso and more persistent inflation.