Over time, this variable has provided substantial impetus to productivity growth. But as the chart shows, a lower contribution from TFP is also the main factor behind the decline in productivity growth in recent decades. In the first decades after the war, Norway was able to make use of many of the solutions that had already been developed in other countries. Today, we have caught up with the technological front line in many areas. However, the front line is now advancing more slowly, which will make it harder to grow at the same rate as before. The future growth path for Norway and other advanced economies will to a large extent be determined by technological advances, structural changes and international exchange and cooperation. In some areas, such as meteorology, we have been pioneers. Modern weather forecasting is largely based on the principles laid down by Vilhelm Bjerknes over a century ago. But the results achieved by the “Bergen School” and other meteorologists since then would not have been possible without other innovations. Weather balloons, aircraft and now satellites have helped make it possible to measure atmospheric conditions ever more accurately. And modern computer technology has given us almost instant access to up-to-date weather forecasts. As more and more countries join the technological front line, technological advances may take off again. Good ideas are not confined by national borders, and the conditions for efficient knowledge sharing have never been better.
While the transport sector faces a carbon tax of more than NOK 400 per tonne of CO2 emissions, other sectors are exempt from all or part of this tax. When it comes to agriculture, domestic shipping and manufacturing, business policy and climate policy are pulling in different directions. In order to promote eco-friendly technology, it may be necessary to reinforce climate policy with funding for basic research and for the development and deployment of climate-friendly processes and products. At the same time, we should be on our guard against attempts to abuse the “green” epithet to qualify for public subsidies. The climate challenge will not be 6/9  BIS central bankers' speeches  resolved by having the authorities designate the “winners” in the transition to green technology. Regulations and subsidies in areas subject to emissions trading or carbon taxes often entail a waste of energy and money. The efforts to reduce global warming will provide a seedbed for new production methods, new businesses and new jobs. Some of these will be in Norway. But it is difficult to see how we have an advantage over other countries in this area. The transition to a low-carbon society is necessary but is unlikely to take over as a new engine of growth. Oil revenue spending needs to be reined in It may give cause for reflection that Norway, as a nation, has gained so much from a resource that is an important source of global warming.