According to the Commission, less than 2 per cent of EU nationals are resident in another EU member state. The mobility, on an annual basis, of EU nationals within the EU is less than 0.4 per cent of the resident population (about 1.5 million persons). In 1998, migration between states in the USA was approximately 2.4 per cent of the population. The low levels of mobility reflect various institutional differences (such as, for example, professional recognition of qualifications) as well as cultural and linguistic differences between the EU 8 member states. A common perception in Sweden is that the mobility of the labour force will not play any major role - at least within the near future - in stabilising fluctuations in production and employment that arise from country-specific shocks within the EMU area. Let me finally conclude by stating that wage formation is central to the development of the Swedish economy. The Riksbank’s primary task is to uphold the inflation target. The Riksbank shall also, pursuant to the background to the Sveriges Riksbank Act, safeguard growth and employment if this can be attained without neglecting the price stability objective. The challenge of maintaining price stability and a good development in employment will remain if and when Sweden takes part in the Third Stage of EMU. It is therefore important that, for instance, regulatory systems, traditions and labour market policy should lay the foundation for sustainable growth, a high level of employment and a low inflation rate.
A central factor in determining aggregate growth in the economy is the labour supply. The growth rate in the number of hours worked slackened from 2.5 per cent in 1999 to approximately 0.5 per cent in 2001, while employment rose by approximately 2 per cent each year. The weak development in the number of hours worked during the period 1999 to 2001 is mainly connected to an increase in absence due to illness and a decline in the average working hours. The growth in sick leave has brought down the number of hours worked over several years. The number of persons absent due to their own illness increased by an average of 13.6 per cent per year during the period 1999 to 2001. There has also been an increase at the beginning of this year. During the first quarter, the number of persons absent due to illness rose by an average of 2.8 per cent. The rate of increase has thus declined. The question is whether the increase in sick leave is due to cyclical or structural factors. Historically, sick leave has increased, with some time lag, when the Swedish economy has been operating at high pressure (see diagram 1). If the upswing in the number of absences is due to economic reasons, it is possible that the current high level is a repercussion of the economic boom during 1999-2000. In other words, we could expect the absences due to illness to fall when the economic slowdown makes its mark on the labour market.