BIS Review 47/2001  5  There is substantial uncertainty associated with developments in Japan. Industrial output and exports have declined. The financial sector is struggling in the face of large losses and poor performance, and the general price level is falling. In the euro area the picture is mixed. Growth is solid in countries like France, Finland and Ireland. Germany has a large internationally exposed industrial sector, which is feeling the effects of the 1 slowdown in growth in the US and Asia. In a survey , growth forecasts for Germany have been revised downwards this year from 3 per cent a few months ago to a good 2 per cent. Economic growth prospects for Sweden and the UK are also weaker than a few months ago. However, the easing of monetary and fiscal policy in many countries should contribute to a pick-up in growth and reduce the risk of a pronounced international downturn. The Norwegian economy will be particularly hard hit by an international downturn if this translates into a sharp fall in oil prices and other commodity prices that are important for Norwegian exports. This would lead to lower export revenues and slower growth. Employment would also be affected. An international downturn would also lead to lower prices for imported goods and services and thereby reduce domestic inflation. If other Nordic countries are negatively affected, this will have an impact on the supply of labour in Norway since the Nordic labour market has become increasingly integrated.
The world needs transition finance – to provide the funding support for businesses and sectors that are not so green, to adopt cleaner technologies, increase energy efficiency, and become greener over time. Inclusive transition is about decarbonising without compromising social and economic development. Hundreds of millions of people across Asia, Africa, and Latin America still do not have access to electricity, modern sanitation, and drinking water. Economic development will drive demand for fossil fuels, which is still the cheapest way to generate electricity and power mobility in many parts of the world. The switch to cleaner energy cannot be made in one leap. We need to shift the energy mix progressively, first to relatively less emissions-intensive fuels like natural gas, and then to renewables. Finance can be a powerful enabler for such a transition. Second, Asia – this is where the battle against climate change will be won or lost. Asia accounts for half of the world's greenhouse gas emissions and is home to about 60% of the global population. The issues of transition are most acute in Asia, with growing affluence and rapid urbanisation alongside the urgent needs of poverty alleviation. About 85% of the energy consumed in Asia comes from fossil fuels and Asia's demand for energy is projected to double in 2030. Asia is also most vulnerable to climate change, with large populations living close to locations prone to drought, floods, and rising sea levels.