nov.14 Nov.  88 92 96 00 04 08 12  Monedas emergentes (1)  RER  Chilean peso  1994-2013 average  Multilateral dollar (2)  1999-2013 average  (1) An increase denotes depreciation against US dollar. Index is based on weighted average of currencies  of Brazil, Colombia, Hungary, Rep. Korea, Czech Rep., Indonesia and Poland. WEO weights as of October 2014. (2) Dollar index. (3) December 2014 figure includes information up to 11 December. Sources: Central Bank of Chile, Bloomberg and the IMF. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 9  CPI inflation (*) (annual change, percent)  CPIEFE inflation (*) (annual change, percent)  10  10 10  10  8  8  8  8  6  6  6  6  4  4  4  4  2  2  2  2  0  0  0  0  -2  -2 -2  -2  -4  -4 -4  -4 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16  07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Sep.2014 Report  Dec.2014 Report  (*) Gray area, as from the fourth quarter of 2014, shows forecast. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE).
Oil prices have increased sevenfold since 1999; industrial metals have increased threefold since 2001. Similarly, the extraordinary gold bull market at the end of the seventies occurred in the context of rising oil and commodity prices. This parallelism, however, is not perfect. The average correlation between weekly price changes of gold and oil throughout the last 20 years is a mere 0.1. For metals, the correlation with gold is slightly higher but remains below 0.2. Both correlations have varied heavily within the period; currently, they are clearly on the high side (Graph 1). Graph 1: Correlation between gold, metals and oil prices Gold - Metals (GSCI)  Gold - Oil (Brent)  0.8  0.6  0.4  0.2  0  -0.2 Correlation of weekly price changes over a 1-year period -0.4 01.01.1983  01.01.1988  01.01.1993  01.01.1998  01.01.2003  Despite similarities in price movements, the gold market has a number of distinct features relative to other commodity markets. Arguably, the most important distinction is the fact that the ratio of available supply to annual production is much higher for gold than for other commodities. A significant proportion of the estimated 160,000 tonnes of all gold worldwide available in the form of jewellery, bars, coins, etc. (sixty times the annual mine production) could be brought to market at relatively low cost.