Going forward, it is assumed that fiscal spending will follow a path of consolidation. On the expenditure side, as I just said, some salient characteristics of recent quarters have been improved consumption and weaker investment, which have led to revisions to our baseline forecasts. In private consumption, the better numbers so far, especially the dynamism of durable consumption, translate into higher figures for this year and next. On the investment side, there is a clear difference between the behavior of the machinery and equipment and the construction and works components. The former, with a more favorable evolution, has responded to the necessary inventory replenishment after several years stagnant, and has benefited from the exchange rate appreciation and low credit costs. The latter has continued to contract beyond expectations, primarily because of reduced spending on building and engineering works, amplifying the drop in gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) estimated in September for this year. In addition, we estimate that this expenditure component will take somewhat longer to recover. Towards 2018, it is still assumed that the adjustment cycle of mining investment will come to an end and that it will very gradually begin to reflect the effects of the copper price rise. Meanwhile, non-mining investment is slightly revised down, mainly reflecting that the downsloping trend of housing investment has been longer than we thought before. With this, as a percentage of GDP, in 2018 the GFCF will reach 21.1% and 21.4% in real and nominal terms, respectively, compared with averages of 23% to 24% in 2013-2017.
In fact findings show that the implications of this in the long term for the ability of households and businesses to get a loan are relatively modest – although there is considerable uncertainty around this result. As such, while other risks may arise during a transitionary phase, the most significant risk arises from the potential for stablecoins in particular to undermine confidence in money and payments, and hence in the wider financial system. As we discussed a few minutes ago, the risk of a loss of confidence in the credibility and stability of private money is not theoretical. Loss of confidence in private money can be a major threat to financial stability. But it is equally true that private money can be made acceptable as a widespread means of payment – indeed, as I covered earlier, the vast majority of money held for transactions in the United Kingdom is already private. So, with the right regulation, a stablecoin could potentially be made safe for wide-scale use. Our existing regulatory framework seeks to ensure that the public is able to trust the reliability and stability of the money it uses every day. Banks are subject to extensive rules and requirements to ensure that consumers can use privately-issued money with confidence and interchangeably with cash. These core rules and requirements were developed over time – in many cases via trial and error, with new rules introduced following financial crises.