The depreciated global demand, reflected through several channels, with a decrease in the national economy and real decrease in the GDP in the first half of the year of 1.2%. BIS Review 127/2009  3  Also the pressures on the inflation caused by the import prices decreased, which together with the entering into the zone of a negative production gap, resulted in price stabilization. The average annual inflation rate in the first eight months of 2009 is negative and it equals – 0.3%, which is a significant downward movement, compared to the preceding year. Alike the pressures on the foreign exchange market caused by the indirect effect of the global crisis, transmitted through the movements in the balance of payments, no movements typical for the global money markets characteristic for the past two years on the Money Market in the Republic of Macedonia were registered. Namely, on the Money Market, in the segment of the non-collateralized borrowing, increase in the turnover and stable movements of the interest rate in the last two years were registered, proving that the mutual confidence in the banking system of the Republic of Macedonia was not impaired. Thus in 2007 exactly, when the global financial crisis began in August, the turnover registered on the Money Market in the Republic of Macedonia started to increase, with the average monthly turnover reaching the level of Denar 1,712 million and it was higher by twice relative to the average monthly turnover registered in the preceding year.
Add to this the discussion in the United States to prevent fiscal adjustments from being triggered in 2013. If attempts to reach agreements are unsuccessful, this economy’s GDP growth could fall significantly and tensions could increase in financial markets. In the emerging world, the biggest risk is a deepening of signs of economic slowdown. On aggregate, the world growth forecast does not divert from the average of the past 15 to 20 years, but this has been sustained by the expansion of the larger emerging economies. Particularly preoccupying is the performance of China, due to its weight in the world economy and its relevance in the evolution of the prices of copper. Should it post a sharper deceleration, global growth would weaken further, with intensified effects on commodity exporting economies like Chile, which are still growing at high rates. Another possibility is for supply-side factors to intensify recent increases in the prices of some commodities, especially fuels and grains. Locally, medium-term inflationary risks are still present. The recent trajectory of the world prices of fuels and some foodstuffs could rapidly pass through to inflation, all the more so considering the current state of output gaps. In addition, if domestic output and demand remain as dynamic even or more so, they can further intensify the usage of installed capacity pressuring inflation away from the target. At the same time, this could also could result in a widening of the current account deficit that could create vulnerability factors in the economy in a complex global environment.