The black line shows that the average 5th percentile GDP draw in the UK historically is 0% growth. Estimates of GDP-at-risk for any time period t utilise the full series of data available (and not just the data that would have been available had it been estimated at t). 11 See Aikman, D, Bridges, J, Burgess, S, Galletly, R, Levina, I, O’Neill, C, and Varadi, A, (2018) ‘Measuring risks to UK  financial stability’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 738; and Bridges, J, Jackson, C, and McGregor, D, (2017) ‘Down in the slumps: the role of credit in five decades of recessions’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 659. 12 See Aikman, D, Bridges, J, Hacioglu Hoke, S, O’Neill, C, Raja, A, (2019) ‘Credit, capital and crises: a GDP-at-Risk approach’, Bank of England Staff Working Paper No. 824. 13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  13  Chart 5 estimates the whole forecast distribution of GDP in t+3 years’ time, conditional on the financial risk environment. The red area shows the steady growth in GDP-at-risk from 1997 to the crisis. Chart 5: Risks grew during the Great Moderation but are now standard  [Chart 5 shows the expected distribution of the cumulative change in the level of GDP in t+3 years’ time, given the macro-financial risk environment at time t. Historical distributions are estimated using the full sample of data.]
Even though many countries including Thailand have been affected by financial crises and regulatory reforms, we are currently in the stage of revival with high potential growth among ASEAN countries. According to the IDC Financial Insights’ observation on key structural shifts, trends of financial institution sector are: expansion of banking industry, particularly, in South Asia and Southeast Asia due to an escalation of financial inclusion and new-entry of financial players; technology refresh to serve with more sophisticated financial products and services; and regional integration (AEC) and the growth of Asian insurance business. These are paths to higher competition among banks, in which, IT innovation is a key to distinguish each brand. Undoubtedly, banks and related parties invest more in IT projects to advance their services responding to digital era. To be more specific, we have to admit that we live in the world of digitization with an escalation of Internet users and Y generation. Consequently, this group of people becomes a new targeted customer group for banks. Interests in higher conveniences of services which result from high integral digital environment and multi-task lifestyle of the people prompt banks to respond with “Virtual Banking Concept” – any interaction with a bank happens online instead of face-to-face meet up at a branch. To illustrate, the numbers of Internet and mobile banking users have grown up recently as well as volume and value of transactions via such systems.