Long-run structural economic factors are hard to estimate with precision and it can be even harder to forecast their development. For example, demographics are likely to reverse some of the increase in saving as dependency ratios increase and people in retirement spend their savings. When this will occur will depend on many factors, including how long older people are able to stay  4  The analysis by Bank staff was not the joint estimation of a single, structural model. Instead, it drew on separately estimated impacts of a variety of contributing factors - it’s possible that these might overlap. 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  4  in the workforce. What is, I think, safe to say, is that the trend real rate has gone down over the last few decades, driven by structural factors. To put it in historical context, the 10-year rate of interest in 1976 was 16%, but that has fallen to around 2½% today, reflecting very large structural changes since I left this university. Part of that fall is associated with much lower inflation rates today than were experienced in the 1970s. But also, since the early 1980s, structural factors have put downward pressure on both the expected real rate and term premia. Inflation premia are much lower now accounting for around 2½% and term premia, which are much harder to estimate, are probably around 0%, which leaves a trend rate of around zero.
Some of the world’s biggest banks, asset managers and insurers are already preparing for life after Brexit and steering their European operations away from London to our capital. Paris is already home to four of the eight 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  global systemically important banks in the euro area, in addition to being number one in the region in insurance and asset management. Recent regulatory initiatives have made Paris even more dynamic. Capitalising on the reform of Negotiable European Commercial Paper (NEU CP) in 2016, a number of very innovative projects have been launched: for instance, the French telecoms company Orange and the fintech SETL have jointly set up a new central securities depository (CSD) called ID2S for the NEU CP market, using blockchain technology. Paris is also at the heart of cross-border initiatives, making the European financial market more integrated. The market exchange operator Euronext is continuing to expand its federal model and in November 2017 acquired the Irish Stock Exchange. The CSD Euroclear is also committed to fostering common infrastructures, and is even looking beyond Europe with partnerships in the United States with DTCC or in Asia thanks to Bond Connect. Building on this comprehensive financial ecosystem, Paris has also been one of the principal supporters of the renminbi’s move towards internationalisation. As of today, Paris is indeed the leading continental European centre for deposits and bond issuances in RMB.