I have also pointed to a number of risks that could lead to a different development than the one we forecast in the Monetary Policy Update. We try to determine the probability of the risks on the basis of incoming statistics. This gives us a picture of what can be regarded as a main scenario and what can be regarded as an alternative scenario. How should a monetary policymaker weigh up new and often contradictory information about the economy that indicates different paths of development? I shall conclude with a few reflections on this. As an economic forecaster, one is confronted by a constant flow of new statistics that often point in different directions. Let me illustrate this by describing the circumstances of our most recent monetary policy decision in April. Statistics Sweden had scarcely published a GDP figure for the fourth quarter that was weaker than expected, when the National Institute of Economic Research published a very strong Economic Tendency Survey for March. Nor is it unusual for statistics to be revised in a way that changes history and throws new light on the initial situation in the economy. As I mentioned earlier, Statistics Sweden revised up the figures for the number of hours worked in connection with the publication of the GDP statistics for the fourth quarter of 2011. This revision entails lower productivity growth for 2010 and 2011 than was reported earlier, and thus a new outlook on the future productivity growth trend, which has significance for monetary policy.
Although the most recent labour market statistics for April point to weaker growth in jobs, at the same time the statistics on job growth were revised upwards for the previous months. In Japan, fiscal policy investments in rebuilding after the tsunami last year will contribute to growth in Japan being slightly higher than we thought in February. In China, the economy is expected to grow by more than 8 per cent in 2012. The overall picture we saw ahead of us in April looked fairly good. Personally, I emphasised the improved prospects for the United States as a possible reason for feeling slightly greater confidence in our international forecast. Global GDP is expected to grow at a rate that roughly corresponds to the historical average. The statistics received since the repo-rate decision in April have so far not had any dramatic effect on this picture. But the risk of a poorer development remains and at present there is greater nervousness on the financial markets than there was in April. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  International risks Even if the euro crisis does not trigger a total collapse in the international economy, there are a number of risks in the world economy that could lead to poorer economic prospects than we predict in our April Update. The first risk is that the deleveraging in the euro area will take longer than expected, and affect the Swedish export industry through lower demand.