Table 3 Household debt  (real annual change, percent) 20022008 2007 (1) IV  2009 IV  2010 I  II  III  2011 I  IV  Contribution to growth (2)  Share in debt  Mortgage Bank Non-bank (3)  14.1 15.3 8.2  12.9 13.1 11.7  7.3 8.6 -0.5  7.7 9.2 -1.6  8.6 10.0 -1.0  9.0 10.4 -0.5  7.0 9.0 -6.0  7.6 9.3 -4.3  4.2 4.5 -0.3  55.8 49.3 6.3  Consumer Bank Non-bank Retail stores CCAF (4) Cooperatives Other (5)  17.9 16.0 20.7 27.6 19.9 25.2 13.5  3.9 -0.3 9.1 9.3 9.6 11.6 7.6  1.8 2.2 1.4 -7.9 8.3 5.6 6.7  2.3 2.7 1.9 -6.4 7.5 3.3 7.6  4.7 5.1 4.3 -1.2 6.9 9.5 6.8  5.8 7.5 3.8 3.6 1.3 5.2 5.2  8.1 8.6 7.6 11.9 2.9 1.9 8.8  9.5 11.8 6.8 10.4 6.2 0.8 6.1  4.2 2.8 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.4  44.5 24.3 20.2 7.0 4.4 2.6 6.3  Total  15.8  8.7  4.8  5.3  6.8  7.6  7.5  8.4  8.4  100.0  (1) Average. (2) Percentage points. (3) Includes securitized mortgage debt. (4) Clearance houses (family). (5) Includes new car loans, college debt and insurance companies. Sources: Central Bank of Chile based on information from SBIF, SuSeSo and SVS.
The third lesson is that equity market returns have been high despite periods of substantial equity market declines. Estimates of the future return on the GPFG are highly uncertain, but a lower equity allocation would have pulled down the fund’s expected return. The Ministry of Finance estimates an expected real rate of return on the GPFG of 3 percent. Underlying the decision to allocate 70 percent of the GPFG to equities is an acceptance of expected fluctuations in the fund’s return, in the short and longer term. The investment strategy has enjoyed broad support since the fund’s inception. By adhering to the strategy through turbulent periods, the GPFG achieved a return equivalent to NOK 4 300 billion at the end of the third quarter. Historical developments since 1900 and since the GPFG’s inception underpin the expectation of higher returns in equity markets than in fixed income markets over time. Broad diversification to reduce risk is a key element in the overall investment strategy. At the 3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  beginning of 2018, the GPFG was invested in more than 9000 companies in 72 countries. An important insight from financial theory is that the expected return on an investment is not determined by the risk associated with the investment in isolation, but by that investment’s contribution to systematic risk in a portfolio. An investor cannot be expected to be paid for the extra risk of pursuing a narrow investment strategy.