Repo rate forecasts, per cent, quarterly averages 7  7 90% 75% 50% Outcome Forecast  6 5  Greater effects of support measures Confidence strengthened more quickly  6 5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  Phasing out of support measures Higher productivity  -2  -2 04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  Source: The Riksbank  We are currently expecting to hold the repo rate unchanged at a low level for a further period to come, until autumn 2010. This is necessary to contribute to a stable recovery and to attain the inflation target of 2 per cent. Moreover, we Executive Board members decided at the most recent monetary policy meeting that further measures were necessary to contribute to interest rates on loans to companies and households remaining low. We therefore decided to offer the banks the opportunity to borrow from the Riksbank at a fixed interest rate and a maturity of around 11 months. The loan auction was held on Monday this week and the final amount lent was SEK 95.3 billion. We expect the loans to the banks to complement the repo rate tool in a way that enables monetary policy to have the desired effect. Once economic activity has recovered, we are intending to raise the repo rate to more normal levels.
Second, since foreign banks are active in more than one market they usually hold a more geographically diversified credit portfolio. Therefore they are less likely to be affected by stress in the local market. Third, as affiliates of foreign-owned banks generally have better access to international funding they contribute to less volatile lending over the local business cycle. For this reason they can serve as a countervailing force to the local business cycle. Finally, as I have already touched upon, foreign bank entry can have a positive impact on the host country authorities, which in turn may induce stricter regulation and improved financial supervision. For all these reasons foreign banks have the potential to contribute to the overall soundness of local banking systems. Having said this, I am of course aware that there are also problems associated with cross-border banking. First of all, as has become evident during this crisis, the increasing globalisation of financial markets can create strong contagion effects across markets. Problems in one country tend to spill over to other countries very fast, generating a snowball effect where problems grow along with the costs of handling them. Furthermore, it has become clear that it can be extremely difficult and costly to deal with distressed banks in a cross-border setting. The reason for this is that there are many stakeholders involved and that the resolution of failing institutions is even more poorly defined at the international level than at the national level.