It is possible for a month’s activity data to show a steep drop that does not necessarily respond to economic factors and that are later offset in subsequent months, without either being construed as a change in the mediumterm trajectory of the economy. On the domestic expenditure side, a development of the third quarter most worth noting was the strengthening of investment which made up for a mild slowdown in consumption. By investment components, special mention deserves gross formation of fixed capital in machinery and equipment, as its rates of change in annual terms have remained high throughout the year (Figure 3). Our 2018-2020 growth forecast Turning to our projections, after growing 2.8% in the third quarter, we estimate growth for the full year at 4%. This projection—which considers October data up to the statistical closing of the Monteray Policy Report—is in the lower bound of the range estimated in September (4%-4.5%), mainly due to the deterioration of mining activity. However, compared with what we foresaw before September, the growth in 2018 is in the upper bound of the range (Figure 4). For the next two years, we still estimate that the economy will grow around potential, gradually approaching trend growth. 2  Thus, the projection ranges considered in September are maintained: 3.25% to 4.25% in 2019; 2.75% to 3.75% in 2020. For spending, we anticipate a change in composition, to higher growth in investment and some slowdown in consumption.
The main stylized facts revealed by this analysis (Table 3) of Chile’s labor force show an increase in the participation of women and a reduction in that of the youth, which is consistent with the increased coverage of college education for the new generations. Also, human capital has grown significantly, but lags behind developed countries in terms of coverage and especially quality. The return on the  7  working experience of Chilean workers is low by international standards, with marked differences across individuals with different levels of education. About the characteristics of the labor market, we observe that although informal work has decreased in Chile it is still high (around 30% of total employment), well above the standards of developed countries. At the same time, our labor market is very dynamic, with a high turnover relative to other countries and with a significant incidence of fixed-term jobs. Meanwhile, salaried employment is increasingly concentrated in big companies. Real wages have grown strongly for all income levels, but high dispersion persists. The wage differences are correlated with differences in the duration of employment (turnover). Finally, the aggregate unemployment rate shows a downward trend, partly due to the fall in the relative participation of younger workers, and the hours worked have fallen systematically during the last twenty years. Regarding female employment, the data confirm that women receive a lower pay for the work than men, even controlling for such characteristics like education, specific occupation and expertise.