There are also rigidities in the economy that mean that it will take time before a sharp fall in exports can be replaced by an increase of exports or by an increase of domestic demand that fully compensates for this decline. I actually think it is more reasonable to concentrate the negative effect on potential GDP to the period immediately after the start of the financial crisis, rather than to spread it out over a larger number of years before and after the financial crisis in the way that both the HP trend and the PF approach do. This would mean that the GDP gap would not appear so high in 2008 and perhaps not so low in 2009 either. But this is unimportant for the assessment of resource utilisation this year. Resource utilisation is largely normal My assessment is thus that resource utilisation is largely normal. The measures of resource utilisation that I showed earlier in Figures 8 and 9 indicated this. But it is also supported by other measures of resource utilisation, based on questions to individuals and companies. An additional advantage of measures of this type is that they can be seen directly in the statistics, thus avoiding the problems associated with HP trends and PF approaches. Figure 11 shows such a measure, capacity utilisation in the manufacturing sector from Statistics Sweden (SCB). It is now more or less on the average level for the period 1996–2008.
And when the repo rate is comparatively far from a more neutral monetary stance, monetary policy can be adjusted in larger steps than when the rate is closer. Thus, there are various ways of making up for the fact that economic forecasts beyond the short term not infrequently miss the mark and still allow for the circumstance that it takes a comparatively long time for the full effect of monetary measures to materialise. Conclusion I should like to conclude by saying that while we all know that the Riksbank’s main concern is the future path of inflation in the Swedish economy, our deliberations about how to hold inflation at a BIS Review 13/2000  4  stable level around the 2% target can just as well be seen as the Riksbank’s endeavour, by means of the repo rate, to contribute to a continuation of the Swedish economy’s favourable trend. In many situations our statutory duty - the maintenance of price stability - is fully commensurate with the requirement that the Riksbank helps to make the development of production and employment in the Swedish economy as stable as possible. 5  BIS Review 13/2000