The second review of the economic programme with the IMF, and the disbursement of the second tranche of the loan facility, was delayed because of the Icesave dispute. The capital controls had sequestered an overhang of offshore krónur amounting to some 40% of GDP, and it was not yet known how big a balance of payments problem lurked in the failed banks’ estates, as the split between the new and old banks had not been completed. The new banks had not yet been capitalised sufficiently, and non-performing loans represented a major problem. As a result, it was highly uncertain how the new banks would fare. Would efforts to put public sector finances on a sustainable footing be successful? In short, all three of the key objectives of the IMF programme were still up in the air: exchange rate stability, fiscal sustainability, and financial system reconstruction. We know now that the turnaround was just around the corner. The economic contraction, of course, was a consequence of the financial crisis, but it also stemmed from the inevitable adjustment of unsustainable economic imbalances and from the contraction of bloated sectors such as construction and financial services. The adjustment showed most clearly in the current account balance, which flipped from a double-digit deficit before the crisis to a sizeable surplus as early as 2009. Such a swift and sizeable turnaround is a rarity in international context and has drawn considerable attention.
The drop in the real exchange rate by 45% from the pre-crisis peak played a role in this adjustment, although it overshot, initially causing severe side effects because of the large stock of foreign-denominated debt owed by resident borrowers without any natural hedging in the form of foreign income or assets. As a result, strong emphasis was placed on halting the collapse of the króna. This was achieved in H2/2009. Closing loopholes for capital outflows and adopting measures that allowed the capital controls to work as intended made a big difference in this regard. The economic recovery began once the exchange rate had been stabilised and the inevitable adjustment of domestic demand to a new economic reality was more or less complete. The economy gained resilience through the underlying strength of the sectors that had not been part of the bubble economy — conventional export sectors in particular. Firms in the tradable sector took advantage of the low real exchange rate. The economic upswing began in Q2/2010, when GDP began to grow once again. GDP has grown more or less without interruption since, and in terms of GDP per capita this is Iceland’s longest economic upswing since the end of World War 2  II. Early on, growth was weak in comparison with previous upswings, as it was driven mainly by closing the slack in the economy, as investment was relatively weak at the outset. That changed in 2015, when tourism began to grow at an unprecedented pace, terms of trade improved, and investment picked up.