The initial participants number 11, instead of the 6 to 9 countries that seemed most probable to Calmfors. That by itself means a great deal. It is a matter of simple logic: if you belong to a club in which 6 out of the 15 members make a move, there is no cause to feel an outsider; matters are different when 11 members decide on a course of action and support it whole-heartedly, leaving only 4 on the sidelines. It is perfectly clear that EMU is a major project – perhaps the most important at present – in the process of European integration. A great deal is being invested in it and the EMU process also affects policies in other areas. But let us not exaggerate: experience differs from area to area and Sweden’s voice is naturally not shorn of all its weight just because we are outside the euro area. As regards economic policy – the only area of which I have direct experience – the pattern is clear. It surprised me how quickly the euro countries saw themselves as a single unit and the ways in which this altered the agenda for our committee meetings. In that the finance ministers of the euro countries have formed a separate group, Euro 11, to some extent Sweden is excluded from the interesting discussions. BIS Review 92/1999  4  The Community agenda is being constructed in the light of needs among the eleven members of the euro area.
On the contrary, we must convince the rest of the world that we have not refrained from adopting the euro so as to be able to devalue the krona if the going gets tough. The long-term positive effects of joining the monetary union should not be played down just because they are difficult to measure. The participating countries and markets are drawing closer to each other. This probably affects competition, investment flows and prices to a greater extent than traditional models are able to show. I believe that the costs of staying outside are particularly great at present and in the coming years, for instance as EMU generates far-reaching structural changes in the business sector. To this should be added the political arguments. Sweden has already lost influence in the area I am best able to assess, economic policy. This is particularly serious today as the global financial map is being redrawn and we need to assert our position as a small country in Europe. Others are better placed to pronounce on other areas but it seems logical that our positions there are also being weakened because we are not seen as a fully-fledged participant in EU cooperation. 5  BIS Review 92/1999  Finally it is a matter of weighing all these arguments against each other. The assessments involved, economic as well as political, are naturally difficult.