Almost half the increase is attributable to a lower interest rate level. Debt burdens are still high, but the stabilisation of employment at a relatively low level has contributed to reducing uncertainty. The interest rate level remains low. In addition, house prices have increased. The saving ratio is therefore expected to fall, and growth in private consumption is projected at 5 per cent in 2010. Reports from Norges Bank’s regional network in February suggested that output growth will remain relatively weak in the coming quarters, but with wide variations across industries. Suppliers to the offshore sector expect activity to continue to shrink. The building and construction industry also expects a further fall in output, while reports from household suppliers and exporters suggest and increase in output ahead. There are still few regional network enterprises reporting that capacity constraints will make it difficult to accommodate higher demand. Since autumn 2009, it seems that capacity utilisation has increase somewhat in coastal regions from the southwest to the north. Many of the industries that are faring well are located in these regions, such as fish farming, fisheries, parts of the metal industry and suppliers of operating services to the oil sector. Employment stopped falling in the fourth quarter of 2009. Total mainland employment had then declined by about 30 000 since autumn 2008. The fall in employment has been smaller than the decline in output might imply. Productivity has fallen markedly. During the downturn, the number of hours worked has decreased somewhat more than the number employed.
I would first like to accentuate the widespread and laborious work carried out for many years, on both a national and international basis, to promote stability and prevent crises from arising, but without impairing the functioning of the markets. Experience shows that a necessary condition for avoiding crises is to pursue a fiscal and monetary policy that is aimed at creating stability and that inspires confidence. The common denominator for countries that have experienced financial crises is that the problems were based on mistakes in economic policy and deficiencies in regulatory frameworks. The financial market is often merely the messenger illustrating the fundamental problems. It is important that the choice of exchange rate regime is in line with the economic policy pursued and with the capacity of the economy to adapt. Countries that have experienced currency crises during the 1990s have had fixed, but adjustable, exchange rates. Today, therefore, an increasing number of countries choose to have either floating exchange rates with inflation targets, or completely fixed exchange rate regimes, such as currency boards. Experience also shows that it is necessary to have a general regulatory framework that is applied properly, and that contains norms and institutions, in order for both national and international financial markets to function well. Countries therefore cooperate in international organisations, such as the BIS, the central banks' organisation in Basel, to work together on producing norms for suitable regulations and norms in various fields important to financial stability.