In a similar vein, the sharp deterioration of the fiscal positions of many governments has also led to a re-assessment of sovereign risks. About 10 years ago, investors were concerned that the strong budget surplus of the US Federal Government might lead to a severe reduction in the supply of US Treasuries. Today, bond vigilantes are focusing attention on not just the short term fiscal health of governments, but on the impact of demographic changes, large entitlement benefits and unfunded pension liabilities on the longer-term fiscal health of these governments. 7. My third observation is the speed of structural changes in emerging economies and transformation in the patterns of global trade and investment. As these are superimposed on cyclical changes, it is often difficult to disentangle the two. Emerging markets, especially Asia, have weathered the crisis relatively well, and recovered quickly. This year, the IMF expects emerging Asia to grow by nearly 7%, almost double the rate forecast for the global economy as a whole. Many analysts expect the differential in growth rate to persist in the coming decade. The global economy went through stagflation in the 1970s, disinflation in the 1980s, and a roaring decade in the 1990s. In 2000s, we had the dotcom bubble, and a severe financial crisis. How the coming decade will turn out, especially for emerging economies, will change many of the risks and return assumptions on a wide range of asset classes. Dealing with the implications 8.
Several years ago, most major investors were investing in Asia but based thousands of miles away. Today, many investors are realising that a ground presence in this time zone is necessary. The rapid structural changes of economies in Asia, the differences in the stages of economic development, in political systems, regulatory regimes and corporate governance standards mean that investors must not only understand the differences within Asia, but they have to be able to respond to swift changes in outlook, and to take into account ongoing structural changes in their assessments. In short, the ability to distinguish noise from trend is essential. Having the right risk mindset 14. Apart from responding to policy reforms and initiatives, investors and financial institutions will do well to continuously rethink and challenge the fundamental tenets of their investment and risk management tools and methodologies. To do so, it is imperative for investors to have the right risk mindset. 15. We should put once-neglected risks, such as counterparty credit risk, model risk, liquidity risk and technology risks, at the forefront of risk considerations. We have to be  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  mindful that falling back on historical experience may not necessarily provide the guidance especially when developments are unprecedented. In this regard, boards of financial institutions play a vital role in driving the level of risk consciousness in their institutions and exercising effective risk management oversight.