For instance, a report that received considerable attention recently warned that every second job in Sweden would disappear within 20 years. 4 At the same time, there is another ongoing debate about demographic developments, with an increasing ageing population and several people therefore saying that we need an increase in labour immigration and better integration to maintain welfare at the current levels. 1 I would like to thank Magnus Jonsson for his help with writing the speech and Emelie Theobald for her help  with data and figures. I would also like to thank Mattias Erlandsson, Jesper Hansson, Goran Katinic, Åsa OlliSegendorf, Cecilia Roos-Isaksson, Marianne Sterner, Ulf Söderström and Anders Vredin for valuable comments and Elizabeth Nilsson for helping to translate the speech into English. 2 See Keynes (1930). 3 See Leontief (1952). 4 See “Vartannat jobb automatiseras inom 20 år – utmaningar för Sverige” (Every second job will be automated in 20 years – challenges for Sweden), Swedish Foundation for Strategic Research. 1 [24]  Changes in trends are difficult to predict, as they are not visible until a certain amount of time has passed, as illustrated by the predictions of Keynes and Leontief. I will therefore not make any attempt to predict developments in the labour market today, but instead look back at what has happened. There are many indications that there have been several trend changes in the labour market in the period following the financial crisis 2008-2009.
Figure 1a shows how labour force participation has increased steadily from around 71 per cent just after the financial crisis to more than 73 per cent today. This positive development can probably be explained in several ways. The high population growth, which is to some extent due to a high level of migration, could be one factor. A large proportion of the immigrants who have come to Sweden in recent years have been in the age range 25 to 54 years of age, which is a group with a high labour force participation rate. Another factor could be various economic policy reforms that have increased incentives to participate in the labour force. 4 [24]  Another less positive development is the deterioration in matching efficiency. This could be a sign that companies’ requirements and the job seekers’ abilities do not match – for instance because of structural change or deficiencies in the educational system – or because the search and recruitment processes have declined in quality. It therefore becomes more time-consuming and costly for companies to recruit staff. Matching efficiency fell heavily in connection with the financial crisis, see Figure 1b. 8 This need not necessarily be a problem. During economic downturns, some types of competence become outdated at the same time as other and new competences are in demand. For the individual, this can mean that some form of further education becomes necessary. The problem is that matching efficiency appears to have become entrenched at around the same levels as in 2010.