The weak euro affects us at the macroeconomic level in two ways: it has a dampening effect on our price level; and it reduces net external demand on our economy. To offset these influences - to prevent overall demand growth falling short of underlying capacity growth, causing inflation to fall significantly below our 2½% target - and I remind you it is a symmetrical target - we have had to keep interest rates lower than would otherwise have been necessary, in effect encouraging stronger domestic demand growth, to keep the economy as a whole on track. The risk in this approach, of course, is that we could find it difficult to moderate the pace of domestic demand growth to a sustainable rate as and when the euro recovers. But that’s a bridge we will need to cross when we get there. Now some of you involved in those sectors that are suffering most from the weakness of the euro would - from your own perspective - like us to go further and try more actively to drive the exchange rate down. As I say, if I were in your shoes, I’d be tempted to argue that myself. Euphemistically it is suggested that we should “pay more attention to the exchange rate” - than, as I’ve explained, we do already.
We are among the most transparent central banks anywhere in the world. Our debate is informed by a huge input from our very able professional staff both in London and in our Agencies throughout the UK, and I’d frankly be surprised if you were able to identify any relevant issue that we have not considered in one way or another. Indeed I would very much hope that you would let me know if you did. I don’t plead ignorance; I plead intrinsic uncertainty. Monetary policy operates with a lag, having its full effects only after about a couple of years. Unlike some outside commentators apparently we know we don’t have a crystal ball. Our judgements are necessarily based upon a very careful assessment of the balance of risks at the time, continuously updated in the light of the constant flow of information of all kinds relevant to that assessment. That’s the nature of the process. Given that, I would not expect, and you would not reasonably expect me, to be able to demonstrate to you that we have precisely the “right” answer at any particular time. But I can promise that if the evidence changes in either direction so too will our assessments. You can of course question our processes, our interpretation of the data or the quality of our analysis - it’s there for all to see. But ultimately the proof of the pudding is in the eating, and it is only on average and over time that our policy decisions can sensibly be judged.