20  These percentages should be considered as the lower bound of the total impact of the interest rate rise, as this would also reduce agents’ income, through its negative impact on economic activity, and would curb the accumulation of wealth on account of the higher net interest burden. 13  As far as general government is concerned, the steep rise in the public debt-to-GDP ratio seen since 2007 also means that public finances are more sensitive to interest rate movements. However, the fall in interest rates of recent years has led to a continuous decline in the interest burden as a percentage of GDP, while at the same time, longer average debt maturities (currently standing at more than eight years) limit the short-term impact of higher issuance costs. Specifically, incorporating the current market expectations for rising interest rates into the Banco de España’s latest macroeconomic projections, the public debt burden would increase from 2.2% of GDP at end-2021 to 2.5% in 2024. Under this updated scenario, an additional 100 bp increase in short and long-term interest rates, with all other variables remaining constant, will further drive up interest payments by around 0.4 pp of GDP by 2024. 14  As regards the impact of rising energy prices, variations similar to those observed between the Banco de España’s December 2021 and March 2022 projections21 would have moderate average effects on the degree of financial vulnerability of firms, albeit with notable crosssector heterogeneity.
The growing interest for attending the Conference confirms once again the significant contribution of the Conference to the enrichment of the knowledge and exchange of experience of the representatives of the central banks in regional and international frames. Nevertheless, the Conference would not be a unique treasure of knowledge and experience, if it did not include the representatives of the domestic financial system and the payment service providers, which by their continuous active participation and involvement in the panel discussion, contribute to the thematic comprehensiveness of the Conference. The Conference will cover the latest developments in payment and securities settlement systems, as well as payment services on global, European and national level. In the global context, Mr Klaus Löber, the esteemed expert from the European Central Bank, will elaborate on the new developments in the area of implementation of the PFMIs, work on retail payments, cyber security, digital innovations and correspondent banking. These are very important issues for central banks given that we also promote the safety and efficiency of payment, clearing and settlement, thereby supporting financial stability and the wider economy. In addition, the developments in the compliance area regarding the prevention of money laundering, financing of terrorism, insider dealing, fraud, corruption and other criminal offences are in the focus of the Conference, as well. In this context, we appreciate the contribution of Mr Oliver Schufmann, the representative of Commerzbank, who will present their experience regarding the compliance activities.