A rational domestic demand and import policies will be required (with a 5.3% rise in imports, given the oil price growth), in order to keep the current account deficit at about 6.5% of GDP (EUR 3 billion), the same as in the current year. Of course, this implies a continuation of heavy dependence on foreign sources of financing in 2010. (2)  Given stagnation in direct and portfolio investments (EUR 2.1 billion in 2009 vs. EUR 2.3 billion in 2010), this would mean that: −  the current account deficit will have to be financed by foreign borrowing;  −  the external debt-to-GDP ratio will increase from 83% last year and about 93% in 2009, to about 100%, which is feasible, but will certainly not improve the country’s credit rating, and the question is to what extent the global downward trend in interest rates can carry over to this country. This is all too important, as we know that in 2010:  (3)  −  total debt repayments (EUR 8.3 billion in principal and EUR 1.4 billion in interest) will amount to EUR 9.6 billion (EUR 10.8 billion in 2009); and  −  total utilisation of foreign sources of financing will stand at EUR 12.6 billion (13.5 billion in 2009). The anticipated fiscal deficit reduction, in terms of consolidated general government (including HAC), from HRK 15 billion to HRK 12.1 billion, i.e.
(X) “A million dollar question” has been asked at Forbes, about whether exchange rate stability can be maintained under such circumstances. The answer is: yes, given the current modalities, it can be maintained as long as we manage to repay our debts and as long as we can obtain new loans from abroad. In this respect, the current world situation is favourable, because free liquidity grows again and waits to be placed, credit supply goes up and buyers are sought for this money. A continuation of EU accession negotiations improves the political perception of Croatia as a debtor. Therefore, I have no doubts that the current search for a billion dollars, or euros or whatever, will be successful. This is a relief, but it also poses the most serious dangers to this country: the danger of inactivity, the danger of believing that we can go on functioning by following the established routine and the danger that we neither have learned, nor will learn enough from the crisis. It is often repeated that our problems are of a structural nature and that it takes time to carry out the necessary reforms. This statement is not unfounded. However, an old Chinese wisdom says: “Even the longest way starts with the first step.” The truth is that the first step is often the most difficult, and we have been putting it off for a long time. BIS Review 2/2010  3