Real GDP  percent  10  percentage change  8  -2  6 -4 4 -6  2  -8  0  -10  –2 –4  -12 –6 -14  –8  -16  *) including reinvested profit  2011*  2010*  2009*  2008  2007  Source: National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis  4. Real exchange rate  3. Inflation rate (Dec./Dec.) percent  2006  *) forecast  **) forecast  Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis  12  2005  2004  2011**  2010**  2009**  2008  2007  2006  2005  2004  – 10  lei/EUR; real percentage change, percent 25 based on CPI  *) forecast Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics  16  2009*  2008  -5 2007  0  2006  0  2005  2  based on PPI  2004  5  2010*  4  2009*  10  2008  6  2007  15  2006  8  2005  20  2004  10  *) forecast (-) appreciation / (+) depreciation Source: National Bank of Romania, National Institute of Statistics, National Commission of Prognosis  BIS Review 5/2010  References Backé, Peter, Égert, Balasz, and Zumer, Tina: “Credit Growth in Central an Eastern Europe: New Overshooting Stars?”, ECB Working Papers, No. 687, 2006.
Banking integration In banking, the key achievement is the establishment of the ASEAN Banking Integration Framework (ABIF). •  ABIF provides a platform for Qualified ASEAN Banks to enjoy greater market access and operational flexibility. •  Banking liberalisation under the ABIF can be done on a bilateral basis and customised accordingly. •  Two ASEAN countries can agree on specific areas to be liberalised based on the Qualified ASEAN Banks’ commercial interests. ABIF will complement the broader economic integration of ASEAN. •  As ASEAN economies develop further, their corporates will expand their operations into the region. •  The banks who have been servicing these corporates in their home markets are well placed to follow their customers and support them as they regionalise. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  •  ABIF will provide them an enhanced vehicle to do so. More importantly, ABIF will be a vehicle to help grow a group of strong pan-ASEAN regional banks with the scale and the capability to compete alongside the global banks. As ASEAN becomes an economic powerhouse, so must our ASEAN banks. Looking ahead, a key priority for banking integration will be to help banking groups with operations in several ASEAN countries to share and transmit information across borders. •  For banks with pan-ASEAN operations, the segregation of data and systems in multiple countries due to data on-shoring requirements may hinder effective group risk management and raise data security concerns.