Both the Riksbank and the market have often made substantial overestimates of the repo rate in their forecasts (see Figure 5). 12 Although the market's forecasts were better than the Riksbank's during the period 2011–2013, the pattern is essentially the same – substantial overestimates and inaccurate forecasts. A brief remark is in order here. Sometimes one gets the impression from the debate that it is only the Riksbank that has produced inaccurate repo rate forecasts, while most analysts, including the market, have been quite successful. Apparently, this is not the case. One may perhaps object that the market may not produce forecasts of its own, but merely assumes that the Riksbank will follow its reporate path. But the experiences of the period 2011–2013 indicate that this is not really the case. I think this is a useful picture to bear in mind. If one wants to implement a makeup strategy in a situation where the repo rate is at the lower bound, it is probably necessary to use a more convincing approach than Delphic forward guidance. The alternative to Delphic forward guidance is called Odyssean forward guidance. This name is also taken from Greek mythology and refers to Odysseus, who had his men tie him to the mast so he would not be tempted by the song of the Sirens and steer his ship towards the cliffs.
It may not be so much a question of purely economic aspects, but rather what is feasible according to social conventions and possible to create understanding for. During the period we have had a negative repo rate, individuals have not faced negative interest rates and thus not needed to pay for having money in the bank. 6 I assume here that –0.5 per cent, that is, the lowest level to which the Riksbank has ever cut the repo rate, is a  lower bound for how much the rate can be cut. This assumption can of course be discussed, and I shall return to this shortly. 4 [24]  But if the repo rate becomes sufficiently negative, this may happen. On a theoretical level, one can argue that the policy would then be more powerful and have a greater effect on the economy – that the so-called monetary policy transmission mechanism would function better. But this also risks leading to various types of problem. As I see it, the biggest problem is not the economic arguments usually raised, such as the general public wanting to empty their bank accounts and hold cash instead. Holding savings in cash is, when it comes down to it, troublesome and costly and given that most people in Sweden are getting used to living without cash it would not be a natural thing to do. The threshold would probably be relatively high here. The main problem, as I see it, is another one.