Much of this credit was used to buy houses and property prices began to soar. …because of overly expansionary monetary policy? There is a debate as to the role of monetary policy in creating this situation. The debate has mainly concerned claims that the US central bank had held interest rates too low for a number of years prior to the crisis. But other central banks, such as the European Central Bank, also held interest rates low during this period. It is not entirely clear what role monetary policy played – and plays in general – for the development of property prices and for risk propensity among economic agents. This is a subject that will probably continue to be discussed. However, on the basis of the information available at the time, there was no obvious reason for conducting another monetary policy than the one that was actually conducted. In the United States, for example, there was justified concern that the country might suffer the same deflation problems as Japan, and many other countries also perceived the threat of deflation as something to be taken very seriously. …as a result of a global savings glut? But there was also another and probably more important factor contributing to the low interest rates. Since the end of the 1990s the emerging economies in Asia, particularly China, and in the Middle East had experienced large current account surpluses, particularly in relation to the United States, but also to other western countries.
Growth in the first quarter has been subdued as domestic spending, both private consumption and investment is weaker-than-expected. Part of this pullback may have been a natural reversion to a more normal pace of growth after an unusually strong expansion last  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  year. At the same time, on the external side, a drag on the overall Thailand’s trading partners’ growth continues to weigh on Thai exports. Going forward, however, many of the supporting factors remain in place. High level of employment and strong private sector confidence should provide an enabling environment for growth. Fiscal stimulus related to large-scale infrastructure investment should also begin to phase in from the latter part of this year. This would potentially generate a positive crowding-in effects on private spending. For this, I would expect the economy to return to its normal path in the third and fourth quarter of this year. Apart from slower growth, a potential threat to financial stability has increased, stemming from development in household indebtedness. Currently, household debt is rising to over 70 percent of GDP. International evidence suggests that a prolonged period of rapid credit growth could lead to a build-up of financial imbalances, worsen households’ debt servicing ability and loan quality, as well as sow a seed for asset price bubbles. The need for long-term focus Ladies and gentlemen, Having said all of the above, I may seem to paint the picture that the Thai economy is slowing down recently, largely as a result of weaker global growth.