Erdem Başçi: Latest economic outlook and macroeconomic developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Erdem Başçi, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the January 2012 Inflation Report press conference, Istanbul, 31 January 2012. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests, Welcome to the press conference held to convey the main messages of the January 2012 Inflation Report. As required by our new communications policy, we will hold two of the four inflation report press conferences in Istanbul, all of which used to be held in Ankara before. I will now present an overview of the first inflation report of 2012, which will be published on our web-site shortly. The Report summarizes the economic outlook underlying monetary policy decisions, shares our evaluations on macroeconomic developments and presents our medium-term inflation forecasts which have been revised in view of the developments in the last quarter, along with our monetary policy stance. Moreover, the Report includes eleven boxes which entail interesting and up-to-date analyses on various topics. For instance, there is an analysis on the functioning of our recent liquidity management policy and its effects on financial markets. There is also a box exploring the sources of changes in inflation forecasts in the previous year, which is a topic included in the first inflation report every year. Another box examines the base effects that will play a major role in the course of inflation in 2012.
There may still be loan losses that may damage trust and confidence in the market when they come to light. This applies to both the United States and Europe. Figure 1. House prices Annual percentage change  35  35  25  25  15  15  5  5  -5  -5  -15  -15 95  96  97  98  99  00  Danmark  4  01  02  Irland  03  04  Spanien  05  06  07  08  USA  BIS Review 60/2008  Figure 2. Property price index (FPI) and CPI in Sweden Index 1995=100  280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100  280 260 240 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec- dec94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 FPI  KPI  Figure 3. Household debt and interest ratios Per cent  200  20 Skuldkvot (höger skala) Räntekvot (vänster skala)  16  160  12  120  8  80  4  40  0  0 1982  BIS Review 60/2008  1986  1990  1994  1998  2002  2006  2010  5  Figure 4.