There is a painful paradox: the 2008 financial crisis started in the United States and the 2020 pandemic crisis started in China and yet, each time, it has been Europe that has suffered the most. In 2020, US GDP fell by 3.5%, while euro area GDP fell by 6.6%, almost twice as much. In the face of a similar health shock, the number of cases and deaths, relative to the total population, is higher in the United States than in the euro area, even than in France, Spain or Italy. However, recovery paths are clearly diverging:  Page 4 sur 14  Excluding containment measures, two main direct factors could explain this phenomenon: the euro area’s higher dependency on tourism; the digital advance of the United States. Incidentally, the negative impact has been highest in the United Kingdom, whose GDP fell dramatically last year, by almost 10%. The OECD forecasts a modest recovery this year (+5.1%), relative to the plunge. II. Three potential explanations and three cures After the diagnosis, I will now move to potential explanations and cures. For that, let us call to mind two of our most famous economists of the 20th century: Keynes and Schumpeter, who are viewed as opposed in terms of policy prescription. John Maynard Keynes emphasised the importance of both macroeconomic active policies and the welfare state for citizens. Joseph Aloïs Schumpeter focused on what causes dynamism and innovation in market economies.
x European Commission, 2030 Digital Compass: the European way for the Digital Decade, March 2021 xi For a discussion in the European context, see Andersen S., Petersen O., Moving from flexicurity to ‘mobication’, February 2012 xii Bloom N., Sadun R., Van Reenen J., “Can European firms close their ‘management gap’ with the US? ”, VOXEU, 2017 xiii For an illustration in the US case, see Gilbert R., Innovation Matters: Competition Policy for the High-Technology Economy, July 2020 xiv Gossé J-B., Hermet E., Mourjane A., Dufouleur M., “Developing the Capital Markets Union to mobilise savings and stimulate investment in Europe”, Banque de France Bulletin, September – October 2020 xv European Commission, Capital markets union 2020 action plan: A capital markets union for people and businesses. xvi BVA, Win, Le Point, International barometer of Trust in the future in 57 countries, February 2018 xvii Nye J., Bound To Lead: The Changing Nature Of American Power, August 1991