But it is a fair bet that, if we had, then we would have put the chances of a contraction as large as the ONS’s current estimate of 6% as being virtually negligible. It is worth stressing that we were not alone in thinking a very severe contraction in activity was unlikely. Almost all forecasters were in the same boat. For instance, when we prepare our projections each quarter, we also canvass the views of outside forecasting bodies. Their assessment of the probabilities of various ranges of possible outcomes was very similar to 1 ours. Chart 2 illustrates the same point, but puts it into a broader context. The blue line shows the actual path of four-quarter GDP growth over the period since the creation of the MPC, while the pink line shows the Committee’s central (mean) projection from a year earlier. The green bars show the range of end-year forecasts for the following year produced by about 25 other organisations, together with their corresponding average (the green diamonds). The striking feature is the close proximity of the MPC’s projections and the average of the outside forecasts throughout the sample. For most of the period – one in which, it should be said, growth was unusually stable – those forecasts are close to the subsequent outturns.
Since joining the EU and until 2018, Romania had accessed more than 21 billion EUR as EU funds that contributed to development and bridged the gap of convergence with developed economies in the EU. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  NBR’s recent research on the impact of EU funds on Romanian economy shows that an increase by 1 percentage point of GDP in structural and cohesion funds has a short term eﬀect of up to 0.7 percentage points on economic growth and a medium-term effect of up to 3 percentage points1. Thus, significant efforts should be made to guarantee that Romania improves the efficiency of EU funds absorption. In order to achieve that, Romania needs sound policies oriented towards macroeconomic balance and safeguarding financial stability. Foreign direct investments are also essential for economic growth. The picture here is mixed. During the second half of the year 2018 and in 2019, persistent pressures on global economic growth and subsequent downward revisions of expected growth rate impacted the investments and the reallocation of capital. Constant trade tensions, terrorism and geopolitical uncertainties are causing a slowdown in economies across the world. At the same time, new technologies have disrupted global value chains and the classic employment model, while new climate change related risks have emerged in the financial sector. On the other part, investing in companies with strong environmental, social and governance (ESG) policies, in green bonds and in new technologies supporting the digital economy, will contribute to achieving the Paris Agreement objectives and a sustainable development.