Governments need to stand ready to implement further consolidation measures, notably on the expenditure side, if risks regarding the attainment of the current fiscal targets materialise. Countries that enjoy better than expected economic and fiscal developments should make full use of this room for manoeuvre for faster deficit and debt reduction. All euro area governments need to demonstrate their inflexible determination to fully honour their own individual sovereign signature, which is a decisive element in ensuring financial stability in the euro area as a whole. Fiscal consolidation and structural reforms must go hand in hand to strengthen confidence, growth prospects and job creation. The Governing Council therefore urges all euro area governments to decisively and swiftly implement substantial and comprehensive structural reforms. This will help these countries to strengthen competitiveness, increase the flexibility of their economies and enhance their longer-term growth potential. In this respect, labour market reforms are key, with a focus on the removal of rigidities and the implementation of measures which enhance wage flexibility. In particular, we should see the elimination of automatic wage indexation clauses and a strengthening of firm-level agreements so that wages and working conditions can be tailored to firms’ specific needs. These measures should be accompanied by structural reforms that increase competition in product markets, particularly in services – including the liberalisation of closed professions – and, where appropriate, the privatisation of services currently provided by the public sector, thereby facilitating productivity growth and supporting competitiveness. We are now at your disposal for questions.
Looking ahead, inflation rates are likely to stay clearly above 2% over the coming months. Thereafter, on the basis of the path implied by futures markets for oil prices, inflation rates should fall below 2% in 2012. This pattern reflects the expectation of relatively stable wage growth developments in the context of moderate economic growth. The September 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area embody these considerations and foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 2.5% and 2.7% for 2011 and between 1.2% and 2.2% for 2012. In comparison with the June 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections, the range for HICP inflation in 2011 remains unchanged, while the range for 2012 is slightly narrower. It is necessary to recall that the staff projections are conditional on a number of purely technical assumptions. The Governing Council views the risks to the medium-term outlook for price developments as being broadly balanced. On the upside, the main risks relate to the possibility of higher than assumed increases in oil and non-oil commodity prices as well as increases in indirect taxes and administered prices, owing to the need for fiscal consolidation in the coming years. The main downside risks relate to the impact of weaker than expected growth in the euro area and globally. Turning to the monetary analysis, the annual growth rate of M3 was 2.0% in July 2011, after 1.9% in June. The annual growth rate of loans to the private sector was 2.4% in July, after 2.5% in June.