Excluding the purchase of non-regular transport machinery, this component of investment has improved in recent months. 9. In our baseline scenario, gross fixed capital formation should experience a slightly positive growth in 2017, after three consecutive years of contraction. A key factor in the negative figures of the last few years is the ending of the mining investment cycle, which reached its peak in 2012. More recently the deterioration of housing construction has added, as the boom triggered by tax incentives finished and a modification of loan-to-value norms reduced home sales. Going forward, our forecasts rely on an increase in non-mining and nonresidential investment (mainly machinery and equipment). While mining investment will eventually return to positive territory during 2018, the gradual adjustment in residential investment is expected to continue during the following quarters (Figure 5). Figure 5 Real annual contribution to GFCF (*) (percentage points)  16  16  12  12 Other  8  8 Non-mining  4 0  4 0  -4  -4  Housing  -8  -8  Mining  -12  -12  -16  -16 09  10  11  12  13  14  15  16  17  18  (*) For sectoral GFCF, variations of the 2008 Benchmark Compilation are used. Since total GFCF is expressed using the 2013 Benchmark Compilation, annual variation of other GFCF is adjusted for consistency purposes.
Estimations for 2015 and 2016 based on available information from listed companies (FECU), Capital Goods corporation surveys, Chilean Chamber of Construction and National Accounts by institutional sector. For 2017 and 2018, Central Bank projection models and sectoral sources are used, including investment plans and Capital Goods Corporation surveys. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 4  10. The labor market continues to gradually adjust and runs the risk of becoming a drag on consumption. Wage employment declined by 2% annually in the moving quarter ending February, and annual wage growth moderated. In addition, working hours declined due to demand rather than supply reasons. Yet this has not translated into an increase in open unemployment, due to flexibility in the Chilean labor market: the unemployment rate is still low from an historic perspective. In fact, despite being more precarious, self-employment has acted as a significant buffer to the loss of dynamism in wage employment (Figure 6).