In a similar vein, on the whole, research does better at identifying these “credit channel” mechanisms in the context of particular stressed episodes than in longer-run averages. 11 Be that as it may, it is beyond doubt that there has recently been an adverse shock to bank balance sheets – involving capital, liquidity, and a potent “asymmetric” information mechanism affecting a wide range of banks. I will pick out four elements in the story, involving liquidity, counterparty-credit risk and capital. First, near closure of the capital markets for leveraged loans, conduit and SIV commercial paper, and RMBS has left banks whose business model is “originate and distribute” unexpectedly holding on to loans and, in addition, facing the prospect of having to take assets back on to their balance sheets. The consequent reintermediation is a hit to both capital ratios and liquidity, as the banks have bigger books to fund. For these reasons alone, big picture, banks responded from August onwards by tightening loan terms and hoarding liquidity. But the story does not end there. The second element is that access to resources (uninsured deposits) from outside the banking sector has become more restricted since the summer. While the new risk-transfer instruments have plainly dispersed risks, lack of ex ante disclosure left market participants highly uncertain about the scale and distribution of losses across the banking sector itself. On top of that, open-ended investment vehicles that have (or may have) themselves invested in structured-finance paper have felt compelled to preserve liquidity, to guard against redemption risk.
By reducing reliance on retail deposits, it reduced barriers to entry. Lenders’ margins fell (Chart 16), and credit conditions in the UK mortgage market eased. Conversely, the painful reminder that undiversified funding and income sources may leave a bank unusually vulnerable will probably bring about another shock to the structure of the market. The persistent tightening in mortgage credit that that would bring was a factor in the MPC’s November projections. In the near term, the extent to which the big or more diversified banks fill the gap will depend on the extent to which they too preserve capital and liquidity in the face of the harsh environment I have described. Money, or bank intermediation So far I have focused entirely on credit. Where does this leave money (or Money), the starting point for much traditional monetary analysis? Well, much that I have said about banks – their capacity, in the short run, to lever up their balance sheets and expand credit at will; their role in providing liquidity insurance to investment vehicles and corporates – turns precisely on their liabilities being money. And for this reason, banks are after all decisively different from other intermediaries. As transactions balances and so the means of exchange in our payments system, the moneyness of bank deposits lies at the core of credit intermediation.