They argue that there has been little evidence, over the long term, of technological unemployment. After all, average employment and unemployment rates today th  are similar to those in the 18 century. 5  The First Industrial Revolution (1760 – 1840) saw the mechanisation of (mainly the textile) industry with the introduction of steam power, moving people from home-based to factory-based production in urban areas. The Second Industrial Revolution (1860 – 1914) was driven by the introduction of electricity to manufacturing, extending mechanised, assembly-line mass production to broader industries. The Third Industrial Revolution (1970 – 2000) was defined by the move from mechanical/analogue to digital, with widespread adoption of electronics from both the home and work environment. The Fourth Industrial Revolution (2000 – current) anticipates the dawn of true Artificial Intelligence in light of advances in robotics, nanotechnology and quantum computing. 6 In the UK, intangible investment rose above tangible investment in the early 2000s, and stood at 11% as a share of output in 2014 compared with 10% for tangible investment. Investment in intangibles also exceeded that in tangibles in the US, Sweden and Finland [on average over 1999-2003], but not in other European countries including German, Italy and Spain. See Haskel, J and Westlake, W (2017), ‘Capitalism Without Capital: The Rise of the Intangible Economy’, Princeton University Press; and Goodridge, P R, Haskel, J and Wallis, G (2016), ‘Accounting for the UK Productivity Puzzle: A Decomposition and Predictions’, Economica, Vol. 85, Issue 339.
Thus, after a decade of persistently low inflation and difficulties of central banks in reaching inflation targets, last year this trend reversed and we have been witnessing a return of inflation across almost all economies. About half of the emerging economies have inflation higher than 7%, which is the highest share in the last two decades. In North Macedonia, as a highly open and import dependent economy, inflation has reached 8.8%. Although supply shocks tend to be temporary and usually limited to price changes of a limited number of consumption items, the recent data points that price shock may be more persistent and more broadly based than initially anticipated. For example, in emerging economies, more than half of the items of the consumption basket have high inflation, including services that tend to have more persistent effect. More persistent and broad-based price changes may lead to "backward-looking" inflationary expectations, as was the case before 1990, affecting the wage-setting process. In fact, the latest Consumer Survey of the EC indicates that inflation expectations in most of the CESEE economies have already picked up. So, how temporary and how strong the effects can be? According to the latest IMF forecast, the current crisis may result in higher global inflation by 3.6 p.p. with stronger effect in emerging economies, where it is estimated to average close to 9%. In a regional context, expectations go up to 8.0%.