The costs of digitalisation – in investment – are mostly fixed; its gains increase in proportion to size. This brings me to the third challenge, that of the consolidation of banking institutions in the euro area. Because of a still incomplete Banking Union, the European banking sector remains too fragmented compared to the US market: the market share of the five main European banks stands at 20% against more than 40% in the United States. In this regard, I would like to applaud the open approach of the Federal Minister of Finance Olaf Scholz. Beyond the debate on deposit guarantees, which in my opinion calls for a pragmatic compromise rather than a political confrontation, his merits are threefold: first, advocating European financial sovereignty after Brexit; this requires adding a stronger Banking Union and a Capital Markets Union. Second, proposing a common bank liquidation procedure, in order to deal more rapidly and effectively with failing banks. Finally, overcoming the blockages of “host countries” of subsidiaries, in order to facilitate the constitution of European cross-border banking groups, including when the parent company is German. Of course, many things still need to be negotiated, notably the necessary reduction of risks. But the Scholz proposals are putting back in motion this key issue for the solidity of the euro area and the smooth financing of investment. Of course, there exists a diverse range of consolidation models across Europe, and in this movement, small banks must not relinquish their values.
German inflation has been lower under the aegis of the ECB in the past 20 years than in the two preceding decades: 2.9% on average from 1979 to 1998 compared with 1.4% since 1999. The permanent stability of exchange rates between our economies is an undeniable advantage for German exporters: in 2018, 36% of German exports were to euro area countries. The low level of interest rates is itself partly a reflection of Germany’s large savings surplus. And Switzerland, another country that is in surplus but that is not part of the euro area, has to apply interest rates that are even more negative! Let us be in no doubt: the euro is an asset and not a burden for Germany. This brings me finally to the fourth cliché: the ECB’s monetary policy has betrayed its mandate. This idea was propagated in a recent “memorandum” by a number of former central bankers. I have every respect for them as people,  Page 4 sur 7 but I disagree with their argument. They unfortunately chose to ignore the positive results of non-standard monetary policies. Jean-Claude Trichet himself, who can hardly be accused of laxity, underlined these benefits, and I would just like to remind you of them: estimates of the effectiveness of the ECB’s policies put the impact on growth at around 2.5 percentage points and the impact on inflation at between 1 and 1.5 percentage point for the period 2014-18. What is more, since 2013 the euro area has created 11 million jobs.