12  10  10  8  8  6  1 6 -6 4 y rs . 6  4  4  2  2  0  0  76  77  78  79  80  81  82  83  84  85  86  87  88  89  90  91  92  93  94  95  96  S o u rce : S ta tis tics S w e d e n  approximately the same magnitude as the unemployment rate.1 Sweden’s increase in unemployment can in this way be estimated to cost around 10 per cent of GDP a year, which is equivalent to SKr 150 billion. Considering the sensitivity of general government finance to variations in unemployment and production, the cost to the public sector, in the form of lower  1  Assuming that changes in the capital stock roughly parallel employment and that average productivity is constant. BIS Review 38/1997  -4-  tax revenue and increased expenditure on unemployment support, for example, may actually be as high as 9 per cent of GDP or SKr 135 billion.2 Conversely, an appreciable reduction of unemployment implies decreased social tensions as well as substantial economic gains.
In this way, we can assess the relevance of vulnerabilities on the mortgage and real estate markets for financial stability, and decide on any need for action. Of course, we are continuously developing our risk monitoring. Thus, we regularly review the range of indicators and the stress tests we use, taking into account new research findings as 6  7  Cf. Aldasoro, I., C. Borio and M. Drehmann (2018): Early warning indicators of banking crises: expanding the family, BIS Quarterly Report, March 2018. With a focus on Switzerland, cf. also Jokipii, T., R. Nyffeler and S. Riederer (2020): Exploring BIS credit-to-GDP gap critiques: the Swiss case, SNB Working Papers, 19/2020. Cf. emi.snb.ch/en/emi/HYPO (consulted on 30 August 2021). Page 5/12  well as experiences gained in other countries. Significant progress has been made in recent years in terms of the data available in Switzerland, particularly with the aforementioned Hypo_B survey on newly granted mortgage loans. However, there are still no corresponding data in Switzerland on outstanding mortgage loans. Please allow me to appeal to the researchers among you here: As of this year, Hypo_B survey data in aggregate form are also available to the general public. With this step, we would also like to make a contribution to new research in the field of financial stability – and we look forward to the results.