As a result, the increase in nominal GDP would be around 4%. At end-2015 the overall general government deficit target (4.2% of GDP) is expected to be met. For 2016, a deficit of 2.8% of GDP is targeted, which would involve attaining – for the first time since 2007 – a figure close to the 3% ceiling established in the Stability and Growth Pact. In turn, the public debt/GDP ratio would stand at 98.2% in 2016, having posted a figure of 98.7% at end-2015, which would mean a decline in this ratio for the first time since 2007. The macroeconomic scenario used to devise the Draft Budget is, as I earlier stated, and with slight upward differences, similar in terms of rates and composition to that I described when referring to the Banco de España forecasts and, more generally, to the consensus of analysts. It is reasonable to expect the improved cyclical position and the reduction in public debt yields to have a positive direct effect on public finances. In this respect, the upward revision of the Spanish economy’s growth prospects means that the budgetary drive required to further the fiscal consolidation process, measured by the change in the primary structural balance, will be very limited, in line with the latest Updated Stability Programme, which anticipated that the fiscal policy stance would be essentially neutral in the 2015–2018 period. Naturally, any slippage in growth or rise in financing costs would hamper fiscal consolidation, making the process more demanding.
While growth in both the Asian and Latin American emerging economies remains below par, the latest indicators show that the United States and the United Kingdom appear to have picked up speed, following the weak first-quarter results this year. Economic recovery is also holding up in the euro area. GDP grew by 0.4% in the first quarter of this year and, on the latest preliminary estimate released last Friday, by 0.3% in the second quarter. For the year as a whole, projections envisage figures of around 1.5%, considerably up on end-2014 estimates. Private consumption continues to be the driving force here, while the contribution of private investment remains moderate. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Turning to inflation, both actual and projected euro area rates have now turned around from the declining trajectory marking their path throughout 2014, but inflation is still some way off the ECB’s reference level of 2% for the euro area. The favourable performance of euro area economic activity and prices is underpinned by certain external factors, such as the pick-up in the global economy and lower oil prices, but also by other factors whose origin lies in the economic policy decisions adopted by the national governments and the European authorities. These include most notably the reforms undertaken in different countries and the more neutral stance of fiscal policies.