Recent data show core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, running at about 3-1/2 percent, which is well above the Federal Reserve’s longer-term 2 percent goal. Taking a closer look at the data, it’s clear that this spike in inflation largely reflects the transitory effects of the rapid reopening of the economy, which is pushing supply and demand in extreme ways. As the economy gets through these unusual dynamics, I expect inflation to come back down to around 2 percent next year. Given the complexity of this topic, I’ll go into this in more detail. I find it helpful to view recent developments in terms of three categories. The first is related to prices for goods and services that underwent huge declines during the pandemic but are now rebounding as the economy reopens. For example, in the first year of the pandemic, prices for airfare and lodging fell sharply as people cut back on travel. Since then, we’ve seen these rebound toward their pre-pandemic trends, pushing the inflation rate up. One simple way to get a better read of inflation that is not overly influenced by these big swings in prices is to take the average inflation rate from the start of the pandemic. That calculation shows that core inflation has averaged 2-3/4 percent since February of last year. But even that number is heavily influenced by the effects of the pandemic on the second category: used vehicles.
After this year’s spike in inflation related to the effects of the pandemic—and with inflation expectations and other measures of underlying inflation close to our 2 percent longer-run goal—I expect inflation pressures to moderate over time and for the inflation rate to come back to its underlying trend of around 2 percent next year. It goes without saying that there is still a great deal of uncertainty about the inflation outlook, and I will be watching the data closely in the coming months. North Country I’ve spoken at great length about the outlook for the U.S. economy as a whole. While people’s experiences are influenced by the macro outlook, the local economy often plays a very important role in shaping their economic opportunity. At the beginning of this speech, I referred to the Federal Reserve System’s Second District, which is the region the New York Fed is responsible for. This area includes New York State, parts of New Jersey and Connecticut, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. To better understand the state of the economy and economic growth here, I’ve spent a lot of time this week meeting with North Country business leaders, community organizers, and elected officials. Much of what emerged from these conversations reflects the unique aspects of the North Country economy, which suffered outsize job losses at the onset of the pandemic and continues to experience a reduction in tourism owing to border closures. This area, like many across the Second District and around the country, has its challenges.