Given the prevailing wage moderation, this acceleration in activity has been particularly propitious for job creation: the euro-area unemployment rate has declined by one percentage point since October 1999 and stood at 8.9% in October 2000. Surging oil prices and the depreciation in the euro’s effective exchange rate have fuelled a marked rise in inflationary pressure since the autumn of 1999. Inflation as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) thus rose above the 2% threshold in the twelve months to February 2000. In November 2000, the year-on-year increase amounted to 2.9%. There have also been increasing signs of pressure on the productive system, with the appearance of production bottlenecks and rising capacity utilisation rates throughout the euro area. The latter work out to 84.7% for the fourth quarter of 2000, i.e. almost three points above their long-term average of 81.8%. In addition, the value of imports rose substantially under the combined impact of buoyant economic activity, an almost two-fold increase in oil prices and the euro’s depreciation. As a result, the current account, which had shown a surplus, shrank to a slight deficit. Robust growth for the French economy Following the trend initiated in 1999, the French economy enjoyed robust growth. Although the growth rate levelled off somewhat in the third quarter, it should remain sustained given the renewed confidence expressed by households and the business prospects of the industrial sector, where our surveys indicate that order books are well-filled.
This document will be available by tomorrow on the Bank's web site at www.banque-France.fr, and it will be constantly updated. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 115/2000  6