Growth in the US, however, is likely to pick up as early as 2003. The US economy is not expected to reach its growth potential before the end of 2004, however. Economic activity in Europe will only see modest growth for the time being. We anticipate that a significant acceleration of growth will not set in before the middle of 2004, with potential growth being reached in the course of 2005. We assume that the dollar/euro rate will remain at about the current level and that the oil price will be around $ per barrel. On the assumption that the three-month Libor rate will remain stable at 0.25% during the next three years, average inflation should amount to 0.6% in 2003, drop to 0.4% in 2004 and climb to 1.2% in 2005. It is thus forecast to remain under 1% until mid-2005. In the course of 2005, however, an acceleration will get under way, with forecast inflation reaching the 2.5% mark in the second quarter of 2006. The new forecast is consistently below that of March 2003. The low inflation at the beginning of 2004 is attributable to a basis effect as a result of the development of oil prices. The lower inflation forecast for the period thereafter is due to the delayed economic upswing. According to the new forecast, inflation in 2006 is no longer in the range that the National Bank equates with price stability. It should be noted that these forecasts assume that monetary policy will remain expansive over the next three years.
The Bank of Zambia and the Government are, therefore, most grateful to our cooperating partners for helping us build capacity in our financial sector. Honourable Minister, it is also our view that the FSDP provides a unique opportunity through its structures, operating on the principle of private-public partnership, to take responsibility for overseeing the development of the financial education strategy for Zambia. One of the key issues that this partnership should help address is achieving consensus on resource requirements for implementing financial education programmes and agreeing suitable funding models that can generate a stream of resources to support sustained provision of financial education over the long-term. Ladies and Gentlemen, It is now my pleasure to call upon the Guest of Honour, to give us his key note address and to officially open this workshop. Honourable Minister Sir. 2  BIS Review 139/2010