But as we have said time and again in the past, we are not and cannot be immune to what happens outside our borders. We can mitigate its effects, but we cannot avoid them altogether. Therefore, the external situation is likely to have repercussions on our economy and, consequently, on our monetary policy conduct. As I just mentioned, at the August meeting the Board withdrew the tightening bias on the MPR it had communicated in previous minutes, which has reflected in the behavior of market interest rates. The baseline scenario I will be presenting in a moment assumes that the world economy will grow less than we anticipated just three months ago. First-half output figures were pretty  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  weak in the developed world. Recent financial turmoil could aggravate in the second half of the year. Developed economies’ households continue to tighten their belts in order to reduce their massive debts, but, in turn, this deleveraging process is restraining growth in domestic demand and employment, prolonging balance sheet vulnerability. In addition, the fiscal position of these economies has deteriorated after several years of fiscal deficit. Remedying this situation will call for substantial adjustments in their public finances. Some of them could be done in the medium term, for instance in the United States, while others need immediate action, as is the case in some emerging European economies. In moments of weak private demand, these adjustments could postpone the much expected recovery even further.
Developed countries must make costly, complex, yet unavoidable adjustments. The experience of the developed world confirms the need to safeguard macroeconomic balances, both public and private, as well as a strong, well regulated financial system. The fragility of financial systems and fiscal accounts of some developed economies have caused a recoiling of living standards and could compromise their growth ability for a long while. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 1 Gross domestic product  (index, IV.2007=100, quarterly series) 115  115  110  110  105  105  100  100  95  95  90  90  IV.07  IV.08 Chile  IV.09 U.S.  Eurozone  IV.10 U.K.  Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg. Figure 2 Real exchange rates around the world (index, July 1994-July 2011 average = 100)  180  160  160  140  140  120  120  100  100  80  80  60  60 Russia Brazil Czech Rep. Australia Hungary Canada Indonesia Switzerland N. Zealand Poland India Philippines Turkey China Chile Thailand South Africa Israel Norway Mexico Peru Malaysia Eurozone Japan South Korea Sweden U.S. U.K.  180  Range (*)  Spot  Average  (*) The range shows peaks and troughs of the local currency during indicated period. The scale has been adjusted to 180. The peak value for this country was 225. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bank for International Settlements (BIS).