Some of the results of these analyses have been presented today at this conference. We also plan to regularly update these results to take into account the changing economic environment and outlook. In this regard, let me also stress the relevance of firm surveys as a very useful tool for monitoring real time developments in the corporate sector, especially bearing in mind the long time lags of hard data at the micro level. In this regard, last November the Banco de España launched a new Business Activity Survey to compile first-hand information on a quarterly basis about companies’ activity in the current quarter and about the immediate outlook. The survey compiles qualitative information about firms’ perceptions as to the course of turnover, employment and prices. Given the current economic environment, additional questions were included on the impact of the pandemic, the use of different policy measures and the strategies that businesses intend to adopt in the near term. This new survey is a valuable source of information on how business activity evolves by sector and on other corporate characteristics that will help outline short-term economic developments, but also identify more long-term patterns. As an example, initial results show that the impact of the COVID-19 shock was larger for small, young and less productive firms located in urban areas. Moreover, these firms resorted relatively more to public-guaranteed loans, tax deferrals and ERTEs (furlough schemes).
Fiscal support to preserve real incomes in a supply-constrained economy during a global pandemic must be subsequently followed by timely withdrawal of stimulus and  monetary tightening in the recovery phase to anticipate subsequent inflationary consequences. 7 Researchers can add value to the policy discourse by supplying clearly articulated frameworks that map optimal policy responses to specific shocks and provide guidance on their coordination. Flexibility must also be accorded for individual policy responses across countries reflecting their unique circumstances. 8 The third strand of issues stresses the labour market considerations that have emerged, through the prism of both the micro and macro perspective. During the COVID19 shock, preventing scarring in the labour market was the key concern, inducing policymakers to experiment with innovative policy designs to preserve existing job matches while facilitating some necessary sectoral reallocation over time. Fast forward to today, supply shocks from the Russia-Ukraine crisis can interact with tight labour markets to amplify inflationary pressures. So,” Whither the flat Phillips Curve?” Has the near-term inflation unemployment trade off worsened and will wages and prices start to drive each other higher in a recursive loop. 9 Given the key role of the labour market in recent shocks, the ability to track labour market outcomes in real-time is of substantial value. At the height of the pandemic, Steve Davis, Nick Bloom, and Raj Chetty among others constructed valuable new survey-based frameworks to make labour market data available at higher frequency, and more promptly than official sources.