Countries with a ceiling for inflation have the ceiling as a mark. The broken column for Sweden refers to the CPIF (the CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate). Sources: The OECD and each country’s central bank  Figure 5. KIX-weighted nominal exchange rate Index, 18 November 1992 = 100  Note. Outcomes are daily rates and forecasts refer to quarterly averages. KIX is an aggregate of the countries that are important to Sweden’s international transactions. Source: The Riksbank  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Figure 6. The Riksbank’s and markets’ short-term forecasts for inflation Annual percentage change 1,4  1,4  1,2  1,2  1,0  1,0  0,8  0,8  0,6  0,6  0,4  0,4 Outcome  0,2  0,2  Market expectations (mean excluding the Riksbank) The Riksbank  0,0  0,0  -0,2 Jan-13  -0,2 Apr-13  Jul-13  Jan-14  Oct-13  Apr-14  Note. The Riksbank’s forecasts according to the most recently-published assessment and market expectations, compared with outcomes. The Riksbank’s figures are not entirely comparable with market participants’ expectations, as the Riksbank’s forecasts are often older. Sources: Bloomberg, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Figure 7.
We will return with this information on 4 September, when we present our next repo-rate decision. Concluding thoughts The Riksbank has two main tasks: price stability and financial stability. On this basis, it is worrying that inflation is too low and below our target, at the same time as household indebtedness is very high, which creates risks for developments in the long run. In my speech today I have discussed how we can manage this challenge. It was necessary to cut the repo rate in July to attain the inflation target, but at the same time it is even more essential to take macroprudential policy measures to deal with household indebtedness. So far the new framework for macroprudential policy has mainly resulted in sharper capital adequacy requirements for the banks, which increase the resilience of the banking system. As I see it, one important piece of the puzzle still remains, however; namely measures aimed at directly limiting household indebtedness. However, to create a development that is sustainable in the long run, it may also be necessary to take measure in other policy areas, such as a review of tax deductions for interest paid and measures to increase housing construction. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figures Figure 1. Inflation in various countries and regions Annual percentage change  Note. KIX is an aggregate of the countries that are important to Sweden’s international transactions. When calculating KIX-weighted inflation, the HICP is used for the euro area and the CPI for other countries.