True, as the recovery gains momentum, and provided this translates into a sustained adjustment by inflation towards its target, the need for monetary policy to support the economy will tend to diminish. The US Federal Reserve has already begun to reduce its balance sheet at a gradual and predictable pace, and the ECB has slowed the pace of increase of its own balance sheet. This reduction in stimuli will extend the monetary policy headroom for acting effectively in the face of possible future crises. The monetary policy normalisation strategy can but be slow and will tend to be applied predictably, with close scrutiny of its impact both on economic growth and inflation and on financial stability. It is worth recalling that, in 2013, the markets rather hastily interpreted some statements by the Federal Reserve, the clarification or correction of which gave rise to a bout of turbulence, owing to the different forecasts as to the speed at which expansionary monetary policy would be abandoned or softened. That episode provided a lesson for all central banks that have applied unconventional policies, in two respects: monetary policy should be corrected very slowly, and the correction should be predictable to the markets. In sum, predictability and a clear communication strategy will be important in preventing adverse market reactions. Financial regulation and supervision The second area I would like to mention concerns the challenges in financial regulation and supervision.
The withdrawal of pension savings will have a significant effect on consumption and trade-related activities next year. The fiscal stimulus will continue to be positive, in accordance with the approved budget. The Chilean economy will receive a slightly greater external boost than previously considered, with our trading partners growing by an average of 4.9% in the years 2021 and 2022, with an average copper price of USD 3.15 per pound in the same years. With this, we project that after falling between 6.25% and 5.75% this year, the Chilean economy will grow between 5.5% and 6.5% in 2021 and between 3% and 4% in 2022 (Table 1). With respect to monetary policy, our assessment of the macroeconomic scenario and its outlook leads us to anticipate that the monetary stimulus will remain high for an extended period of time, so as to ensure the consolidation of the economic recovery and the achievement of the Bank’s objectives. In particular, we foresee the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) remaining at its minimum level for much of the 24-month monetary policy horizon. As for the unconventional measures, they will remain in place. This considers that the total stock of bank bonds acquired by the CBC under different programs—around USD 8 billion—will be maintained for the next six months, reinvesting the coupons as they mature. This excludes the purchases made under the Cash Purchase and Term Sale (CC-VP) program, which have a different objective. With respect to the FCIC, the Board has made no changes to the total amount of resources available.