History has taught us that Malthus and its intellectual descendants have always been proven wrong. The whole process of economic growth was borne out of the ability of mankind to overcome scarcity through human inventiveness and technical progress. It won’t be different this time. I am also very optimistic in the long run on the fundamental rebalancing of the world economy. Income per capita levels in the emerging world will progressively converge to those of the advanced economies and this will present gigantic market opportunities for producers in those countries. At the same time, tensions and insecurity created by differences in income and productivity levels will abate and disappear. The transition process, however, may be bumpy. Unavoidably, advanced economies, especially in Europe, will have to adjust to the permanent shift in world comparative advantages. They will have to increase flexibility and, above all, develop and preserve their most precious resource – human capital – through education and excellence in research. Emerging economies will have to face the dual challenge of aging and reducing inequalities. During that transition period, which may last several decades, it is important that the whole process is not derailed by shocks and crisis borne out of imbalances in the world economy. This is where the twin questions – (1) of the level and distribution of global demand and (2) the level and allocation of world savings – may matter most. Inside the G20, there is broad agreement on the need to rebalance aggregate demand.
The future of the Spanish economy hinges greatly on these policies, not only in the long run but also in the more immediate term. The priority of these reforms should be to generate a rapid and deep-seated change in the prevailing labour market trends. That requires altering a good number of the institutions that currently regulate this market. In particular, innovative hiring arrangements are needed to facilitate job creation and to overcome the marked segmentation currently in place which has adverse consequences for employee training, job stability and for efficiency and equality in the economy. In turn, collective bargaining should be reformed so that internal organisation and labour costs are better tailored to the specific situation of each company and to cyclical developments, but also so as to equip firms with the flexibility they need to increase productivity. But there are other measures we should not rule out, even though their effects may take longer to materialise. This is the case, firstly, with education. Undoubtedly, improving education is the most important issue pending for economic growth in Spain. True, we have made progress in some areas; but it is no less true that there are incipient signs that the increase in the level of educational attainment of the workforce observed in the second half of the 20th century is slowing. The reform of the education system, moreover, would complement that of the labour market.