The unequivocal and certain conclusion based on very detailed data, studies and stress tests is that the housing market and credit granting do not at present entail any problem for financial stability. If such problems were to arise at some point in the future, Finansinspektionen has suitable instruments, in the form of regulations regarding leverage, amortisation and housing cost calculations. However, the repo rate is a very blunt and thus less suitable instrument for affecting potential risks of this sort. Consequently, there does not seem to be any reason to allow house prices and credit granting to affect the repo rate decision now. At the monetary policy meeting, a number of members of the Executive Board stated that a possible future fall in house prices may have a negative impact on consumption in the future. This would lead to a fall in aggregate demand, with negative consequences for future resource utilisation and inflation. However, if one believes this, it should also be considered in the assessment of the influence of alternative repo rate paths on the forecasts for inflation and resource utilisation, and it should only be allowed to affect monetary policy in such a case. These forecasts are mean forecasts, and some probability of a negative outcome has a negative impact on the mean. In this sense, the forecasts are “risk-adjusted”. As usual, it is necessary to filter all information through the forecasts to determine whether or not it should affect monetary policy.
It is therefore reasonable to calculate the alternative forecasts for inflation and the real economy on the basis of expected deviations from the main scenario. The effects of expected deviations are somewhat greater than the effects of unexpected deviations. Figures 2.13–2.15 in the Monetary Policy Report are calculated using unexpected deviations. 6  The effects of anticipated and unanticipated deviations are calculated using the methods presented in Laséen and Svensson (2009) and Leeper and Zha (2003), respectively. BIS Review 22/2010  5  Figure 3 The effects of expected and unexpected deviations from the repo rate path of 0.25 percentage points over four quarters.