2  Between the three months Dec 2009 to Feb 2010 and the period June to August 2010, total employment increased by 315,000 according to the Labour Force Survey. 2  BIS Review 134/2010  optimistic about their future business prospects. The recent growth of employment has been driven by the private sector and that should also give us encouragement that the private sector can generate job growth that will more than offset the public employment cuts that may be in prospect following the spending review. I will come back to this point later. A second positive feature of the early stages of this recovery is that we have seen some evidence of rebalancing in the UK economy. Manufacturing output is growing much more strongly than the services sector, reversing the pattern of services-led growth that prevailed in the decade before the financial crisis. Over the last year, we have seen the strongest rate of growth of manufacturing output that the UK has experienced in over 15 years – as Chart 3 shows. According to the latest data, manufacturing production is 5% up on a year ago compared with growth of just 1.5% in the services sector over the same period. 3 While some of this rebound in the manufacturing sector may reflect temporary factors – such as the turnaround in the global stock cycle – it also shows that British industry is able to take advantage of the recovery in the global economy with the additional support of a competitive exchange rate.
François Villeroy de Galhau: Five lessons learned for monetary policy from the latest years Remarks by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Paris School of Economics, in discussion with Olivier Blanchard, Paris, 28 June 2023. *** Looking at the last three years, which were rich in unexpected events, I would risk two general lessons, and three more technical ones: 1. The first is that we must remain modest, humble: monetary policy is not omnipotent; it cannot be the only game in town. And we must be nimble, able to react to surprises with agility. 2. That said, monetary policy was efficient in preventing deflation during Covid-while not creating the present inflation. 3. On a more technical note: we certainly should work with less forward guidance. I wouldn't throw it away completely but if we use it again in the future, forward guidance should be (i) state dependent and not calendar based except in the very short term (ii) indicative and not committing. 4. We should keep our inflation target of 2%. It served us well, explaining in part why inflation expectations remain rather well anchored; we shouldn't change it, while keeping in mind that the target is for the medium term. 5. Transmission lags are a key question, and we should dig more into this issue.