And that, of course, is exactly what we do in fact do - using the vast array of official economic statistics and financial market data, all the publicly available and some private surveys and commentaries, as well as a wealth of anecdotal and structured survey evidence that we collect BIS Review 71/1998  -3-  ourselves, through our 16 non-executive directors, through the frequent visits which MPC members make around the country, and through meetings in London, and through our network of 12 regional, information-gathering and disseminating, agencies with their 7000 industrial contacts throughout the United Kingdom. And we openly display the facts as they are available to us, as well as our analysis and our conclusions, regularly through the publication of the minutes of our monthly meeting and in the quarterly Inflation Report. So when people say to me that the economy is headed for recession, I’m interested in comparing the evidence on which they base their views with our own evidence, and I want to know whether or not they are also saying that they expect us to undershoot the Government’s inflation target. Let’s just for a moment turn down the noise and look at some of the relevant facts as they relate to the economy as a whole. Since the economy started to recover from recession in the spring of 1992 - some 6½ years ago - overall output has grown at an average rate of about 3%.
That can be influenced by the whole raft of Government policies, ranging from education and health to taxation and social security, and it depends ultimately on the ingenuity, the productivity, and the flexibility, of the economy. Employers and employees, working together, clearly have a crucial role to play in this context, and I recognise the constructive and forward-looking role that many of you are now playing to improve the supply-side capacity of the economy. Monetary policy operates on the demand side. And the best help that we can give is to keep overall demand consistently in line with that supply-side capacity - not letting it run above capacity but not letting it fall below capacity either - as reflected in consistently low inflation. That way we can moderate rather than aggravate the unavoidable ups and downs of the business cycle, enabling steadier growth, high levels of employment and rising living standards to be sustained into the medium and longer-term. And if we can do that, then we will contribute indirectly to the supply side by creating an environment which encourages more rational, longer-term, decision-making throughout the economy. I would hope, Chairman, that on this basis we could all agree at least on what it is we are trying to do. The debate is not about the ends it is about the means. We are every bit as concerned with growth and employment as you are - as anyone in their right mind must be.