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Annex:  Chart 1: Probability density estimates  Chart 2: Probability density estimates  for UK GDP Growth  for UK RPI Whole sample (1857-2007) Golden Decade' (1998-2007)  Density 0.60  Whole sample (1857-2007) Golden Decade' (1998-2007)  Density 0.60  0.50  0.50  0.40  0.40  0.30  0.30  0.20  0.20  0.10  0.10  0.00 -15  -10  -5  0 5 10 Annual GDP Growth (%)  15  0.00 -40  -20  0 20 Annual RPI (%)  40  Chart 3: Probability density estimates  Chart 4: Probability density estimates  for UK Unemployment  for Annual Earnings Growth  Whole sample (1857-2007) Golden Decade' (1998-2007)  Whole sample (1857-2007) Golden Decade' (1998-2007)  Density 0.80  Density 0.80  0.70  0.70  0.60  0.60  0.50  0.50  0.40  0.40  0.30  0.30  0.20  0.20  0.10  0.10 0.00  0.00 -5  0  BIS Review 18/2009  5 10 15 Unemployment (%)  20  -40  -20  0  20  40  -0.10  Annual Earnings Growth (%)  11  Chart 5: Probability density estimates  Chart 6: Probability density estimates  for UK Base rate  for UK House Price Inflation  Whole sample (1857-2007) Golden Decade' (1998-2007)  Whole sample (1954-1997) Golden Decade' (1998-2007)  Density 0.40  Density 0.08  0.35  0.07  0.30  0.06  0.25  0.05  0.20  0.04  0.15  0.03  0.10  0.02  0.05  0.01  0.00 -5  0  5 10 Base rate (%)  15  20  0.00 -20  0 20 40 House Price Inflation (%)  60  -0.01  Chart 7: Probability density estimate for  Chart 8: Probability density estimate for  FTSE All-Share Index  UK 2.5% coupon consol yield Density  Whole sample (Jul 1700 - Nov 2008)  Whole sample (Jan 1693 - Nov 2008)  'Golden Decade' (Jun 97 - Jun 07)  0.24  'Golden Decade' (Jun 97 - Jun 07)  Density 0.10 0.09 0.08  0.20  0.07 0.16  0.06 0.05  0.12  (a) (b) (c) (d)  (c)(d) 0.08 (a)  (b)  0.04 0.03  (e)  0.02  0.04  0.01 0.00 -80  -60  -40  -20 0 20 40 Price return (%)  60  80  Sources: Global Financial Data and Bank calculations.