The policy debate – inside and outside the Bank – has recently refocused on the possibility of some other changes in the way our economy functions. Less than 18 months ago, the Bank’s interest rate was just 3.5%, essentially because the MPC wanted to stimulate private sector domestic spending to offset the effects on aggregate demand of weak net trade, given adverse developments in the world economy. As global conditions recovered, and with a pick up in public sector spending, we were able gradually to withdraw much of that stimulus during 2004 in a series of steps which were widely anticipated and understood across the financial and real economy (Chart 2). With the slack in the economy being absorbed, attention shifted to gauging the degree of demand pressures and their implications for the inflation outlook. In particular, on the basis of some simple statistical relationships, a question has been posed about whether there has been some change in the extent to which demand pressures feed through into wages and prices. Most notably, as discussed in the Bank’s February Inflation Report, the steady falls in unemployment over recent years have not been accompanied by a rising rate of earnings growth (Chart 3). These issues obtained some prominence towards the end of last year when, despite apparently buoyant demand, inflation on the CPI measure fell to 1.1%.
Chart 8: Proportion of part-time workers  Percentage of total employed 30 25 20 15 10 1985  1988  1991  1994  1997  2000  2003  Source: ONS and Bank calculations  BIS Review 16/2005  11  Chart 9: Real household disposable income growth and terms of trade  Percentage change on a year earlier 8.0  1990 = 100 112  Real household income growth  6.0 108  4.0 2.0  104  0.0 100  -2.0  Terms of trade  -4.0  96  -6.0 -8.0 1990  92 1992  1994  1996  1998  2000  2002  2004  Chart 10: Margins on personal loans to households  Per cent 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1993  1995  1997  1999  2001  2003  Source: Bank calculat ions.