Charles Bean: Measuring recession and recovery – an economic perspective Speech by Mr Charles Bean, Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy at the Bank of England, at the Royal Statistical Society (RSS) Statistics User Forum Conference, London, 27 October 2010. *  *  *  Good morning! It is a great pleasure to open this conference dedicated to exploring the way statistics are used in the study and control of the business cycle and, in particular, the issues thrown up by the Great Contraction of 2008–9. Before I turn to that topic, however, it might be useful if I start by saying a few words about the sort of information that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) relies on when it sets the level of Bank Rate (or the amount of asset purchases) each month. First, and most obviously, there is the wealth of official statistics on the economy generated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and other national statistical agencies, covering such variables as output, employment, pay and prices. That is the absolute bedrock on which our analysis and policy rests, and without it we would struggle to do our job. But the picture they provide is rarely perfect. Series often do not quite correspond to the appropriate economic concept, either because they are conceptually difficult to measure or else because only imperfect proxies are available. As an example, take output.
But it is testimony to the strong credentials that Carney brought to these jobs: •  a solid academic grounding – with a PhD in Economics from Oxford University;  •  extensive experience in the private sector – having spent more than a decade at Goldman Sachs;  •  a background in public policy – working on a variety of economic issues at the Canadian Department of Finance; and  •  most important, a commitment to serve the larger good of society. •  Carney’s topic today is The Future of Financial Reform. He is uniquely well placed to talk about this, having lived and breathed financial reforms in the aftermath of the Crisis, especially as the Chairman of the Financial Stability Board. •  Under Carney’s leadership, the FSB has worked intensely to correct the fault lines that led to the Global Financial Crisis. •  The FSB, in partnership with various standard setting bodies, has presided over perhaps one of the boldest and most far-reaching set of regulatory reforms in recent memory. •  We look forward to hearing from Carney the progress and implications of that work, the new risks emerging on the financial horizon, and the forward agenda of the FSB. I have had the pleasure and privilege of working with Mark at many international meetings over the last three-and-a-half years, at the BIS, the FSB, and the IMF. There are many smart central bankers on the international circuit. There are also many sharp financial regulators.