GDP per capita and labour productivity in Sweden and abroad 1(a ) GDP per capi ta  1(b) La bour productivi ty  110  110  105  105  100  100  95  95  90  90  85  85  80  80  00  02  04  06  08  10  12  14  16  00  02  04  06  08  10  12  14  16  Note. Index, 2007 = 100. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Consensus Bureau, Conference Board, Eurostat, Japanese Ca bi net Office, Ja panese Statistics Bureau, Office for National Statistics, Statistics Sweden and Sta ti stics Ca nada  The long recovery after the crisis is also reflected in the fact interest rates in many countries are still very low. Central banks reacted quickly when the crisis broke out and cut policy rates to close to zero to avoid a further deepening of the crisis (see Figure 2(a)). Inflation also fell sharply in many countries (see Figure 2(b)). This was partly because the price of oil fell heavily and inflation recovered relatively quickly to begin with. But since then, it has remained at levels some way below many central bank targets. Figure 2.
But one can often nevertheless have some suspicion of what might happen, even if it may be difficult to quantify. My impression is that there are risks on the domestic side that are not conspicuous or visible yet but may build up. Although resource utilisation is low and unemployment is high at present, the labour market is constantly improving and we have had to revise our forecast for employment up several times. The shortage figures are also rising. The levels may not be alarming, but an upward trend is clear. And there is a clear risk that labour shortages may arise further ahead. During the previous economic upturn a labour shortage arose fairly early, despite relatively high unemployment, and it is easy to forget that the major theme before the crisis was the severe problems in obtaining skilled labour. Although structural reforms have been made, it is difficult to say how great an effect they will have, and at what range. If monetary policy is too expansionary for too long, and the wheels are allowed to spin too fast, this could create problems with bottlenecks, if not during the forecast period then immediately thereafter. Household borrowing is also a risk factor, and perhaps an even larger one, in the slightly longer run. A lower repo rate means there is a risk that the debt ratio will continue to build up from already high levels.