Thereafter, references fell off a bit until rising sharply again recently. Clearly, the recent financial crisis has underscored the importance of financial conditions. Today’s paper makes clear the importance of financial conditions. The paper’s analysis of the many financial conditions indexes that have been constructed as proxies for overall financial conditions finds that many of these indexes have done better than the fed funds rate or other single-variable financial indicators as predictors of real economic activity. However, as the paper also makes very clear, the indexes that have been developed are still very rudimentary. In particular, most financial conditions indexes are ad hoc and incomplete. In their review of the existing financial condition indexes, the authors find considerable differences across the indexes in the way that they are constructed and in terms of the variables included. In addition, there is another difficulty. As the financial system changes over time, both in terms of structure and in terms of financial products, the financial variables that we might determine to be important are also changing. For example, in the wake of the recent financial crisis, the variables that the paper’s authors call “neoclassical” – such as the yield curve and stock market prices – appear to have become less important relative to the variables that the authors term “non-neoclassical” – such as quantity and survey measures of credit availability. Variables that would work best 10 years ago as forecasting tools may no longer be very useful.
The progressive easing of underwriting standards that was needed to support housing demand could only persist as long as housing prices were rising rapidly. But for home prices to rise rapidly, underwriting standards had to be progressively relaxed in order to generate more buyers. When home prices began to slip beginning in 2006, the dynamic swung into reverse. The collateral values supporting borrowing and spending began to fall. As banks’ and other financial intermediaries’ credit losses began to mount, credit availability became impaired and this exacerbated the downward pressure on home prices and on borrowing and spending. Not only did households that had overextended themselves have to cut back; others also retrenched because they were also affected by declines in wealth and heightened uncertainty about the economic outlook and their job prospects. It is not surprising that the workout from the excesses of this type of boom would take a long time. Just as it took several years for the boom to begin and run its course, so it would take years, not months, for households and financial intermediaries to adjust their balance sheets and behavior to the new environment. Households had to raise their saving rates in order to rebuild their balance sheets. Financial intermediaries had to replenish their capital to replace losses via loan charge-offs and other credit impairments. Both adjustments would need to occur before the economy could grow rapidly.