In our case, total productivity – the variable that seeks to approximate the level of efficiency of the economy and which depends, among other factors, on the effects of technological improvements and on the efficiency of the institutions and the regulations in place within an economy – worsened significantly during the years of expansion prior to the crisis, posting slightly negative rates as from 2000. Despite some improvement as from 2008, linked to the disappearance of unproductive firms, Spain continues to post significantly lower productivity growth than the average for the developed economies. There are simplistic analyses that would seek to explain these developments by resorting to singular and even anecdotal macroeconomic aspects; but the factors that appear to lie behind our mediocre productivity performance are varied and complex. Apart from the fact that Spain has significantly lower levels of technological capital than other developed countries, factors are often cited such as the high costs and administrative obstacles facing business start-ups, the low level of competition in certain sectors and the small size of our companies. Low productivity can also be related to some of the labour market aspects I referred to earlier, such as the disconnection between remuneration conditions and the specific situation of each firm, and labour market duality, which hamper the reallocation of resources across companies and human capital accumulation decisions. Conclusions To conclude, allow me first to refer to the situation of the euro area, and then to the Spanish economy, on the road to recovery from the crisis.
The euro area faces a complex macroeconomic scenario, marked by an outlook of moderate growth and very low inflation, recently compounded by uncertainties such as those arising from the assimilation of migrant flows and the referendum on the United Kingdom’s continued membership of the EU. The ECB’s monetary policy is providing considerable stimulus through the easing of financing conditions, but it is necessary for other policies to accompany monetary policy if we wish to anchor the recovery and improve the medium-term outlook. In this respect, the fiscal policy of the member countries and of the EU as a whole should use the room for manoeuvre allowed under the Stability and Growth Pact to promote activity and, in parallel, the structural reforms aimed at improving our economies’ potential should be deepened. Turning to the Spanish economy, it has in the past three years moved back onto a path of economic growth, showing greater dynamism than in most of the EU countries. But it has not managed to overcome the imbalances I talked about earlier to the extent necessary. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Spain still has an unemployment rate of over 20% and a very high proportion of very longterm employment; we have financing maturities arising from our external debt that each year exceed 45% of our GDP; and our long-term demographic outlook threatens the sustainability of our public pension system.