A single currency in the euro zone would remove the foreign exchange risk in around half of Sweden's foreign trade, while the other half would in this case continue with a floating exchange rate, as the euro floats against other currencies. A single currency thus provides less risk and thereby lower costs, which are most important to small companies and private persons. The larger corporations have greater capacity to manage foreign exchange risk, although they would also benefit from a lower foreign exchange risk. What role all of these economic arguments play in the final consideration of whether Sweden should join the EMU or not depends on the weight one attaches to the economic arguments. The EMU question contains so many different dimensions that are more than the purely economic dimensions I have taken up here. A central bank can have an opinion on the economic issues, but should, in my opinion, keep a low profile in the final decision-making. It is clear in any case that Sweden has succeeded in recreating confidence in economic policy after the mistakes of the 1970s and 1980s. It is also clear that we, like other countries, need to continue to pursue an economic policy aimed at macroeconomic policy regardless of whether or not we participate fully in the third stage of EMU. It is good to be prepared for action with regard to unforeseen events – what is known as asymmetric shocks – whether we are inside the EMU or on the outside.
After that there was an attempt to "bridge over" the international economic downturn that followed in the wake of the oil crisis. The cost problem was checked by devaluation. The idea was to keep demand up until international economic activity showed an upturn. Another example is the beginning of the 1980s, when activity in the economy once more came out of synch. Sweden came out of the decline faster than other European countries by means of two aggressive devaluations, but the cost was that inflation became stuck at a high level. The General Council also expressed scepticism, in its comments on the commission's report, of the statement that it would be possible to pursue an individual economic policy in the case of remaining outside EMU. With hindsight, one can perhaps conclude that this scepticism was a little exaggerated in that the steering interest rate has been both higher and lower than in the euro area in recent years and the krona has fluctuated substantially. Given that a country has systems for both fiscal policy and monetary policy that inspire confidence, there appears to be somewhat better scope for action within the framework of an economic policy aiming at macroeconomic stability than was earlier assumed. 1  Sweden and the EMU, SOU 1996:158.