Loan growth in July increased to 11.8 percent while deposits including bill of exchange grew by 1.9 percent. Liquidity in the system remains adequate, with loan/deposit ratio excluding interbank transactions at 90.1 percent in July. On asset quality, gross NPL ratio edged downward to 6.4 percent in June. These numbers show that the performance of the Thai banking sector is quite robust, and is well positioned to support the economy. Fourth, a more difficult picture to assess is the impact of the turmoil on the economy and how this would translate into the impact on the banking sector. So far, notwithstanding the less helpful global environment, the Thai economy has performed relatively well, with growth averaging 5.7 percent in the first half of this year. But going forward, market participants expect the economy to become more affected by the slowing global economy. Our own forecast also sees growth to be less buoyant in the second half of the year, reflecting a more adverse impact on exports. But overall, the momentum of growth should not be too adversely affected given the support that growth could gain from domestic demand which is being supported by high farm income, continued credit availability, and supportive fiscal policy. Moreover, lower oil prices and monetary policy that focuses on inflation should provide a stable price environment conducive to domestic demand and to export competitiveness. Also, continued current account surpluses, lower external indebtedness, and high domestic savings have made the economy’s financial conditions more stable, by reducing its dependency on capital flows.
At the same time, economists are increasingly being given the opportunity to help governments design new policies and regulations2. And, in this respect, we should bear in mind that carefully designed scientific experiments have been an engine of economic, technological, and social progress. Social experiments have become crucial to ensure that governments implement policies with a proven record of success3, that are based on evidence and not on prejudice or intuition. We are now in a position to create a virtuous circle that begins with the allocation of resources to the compilation of data and the provision of access to them, continues with the evaluation of public policies, and ends with the application of the findings to the design of policies. However, unlike medical trials, social experiments – large-scale, publicly funded randomised controlled trials – have not become the gold standard for the evaluation of public policy interventions. 1  Einar, L. y Levin, J. (2014) "The data revolution and Economic Analysis", Working Paper 19035 National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) 2  Duflo, E (2017)"The Economist as Plumber" Richard T. Ely Lecture, American Economic review: Papers and Proceedings 2017, 107(5):1-26 3  Heffetz, O y List, J (2021) "Who's afraid of evidence-based Policymaking?" Artefactual Field Experiments 00739, The Field Experiments Website 1  In many cases, critics argue that such experiments are inherently unfair. Ironically, this resistance to experimentation could eventually lead to less progress and even less fairness.