On the one hand, the latest available version of the CBC’s survey of large-scale investment projects shows little change in the number and volume of projects committed for the next five years and a low inflow of new projects by historical standards, a trend that has been maintained for some quarters now. On the other hand, although imports of capital goods increased significantly in the first part of the year, the evolution of the stock market suggests a less optimistic outlook for the tradable component of investment going forward (Figure 15). Page 4 of 27  A core element in these projections is fiscal policy, which this year will add a significantly stronger impulse than we contemplated in March, considering the announcements already materialized and the additional spending that will trigger, among other measures, the recently approved household support initiatives. For 2022 and 2023, it is assumed that a massive fiscal impulse such as this one will not be maintained, giving way to policies focused on the most lagging segments and the stabilization of public finances. Thus, after reaching record expansiveness in 2021, the central scenario assumes that fiscal accounts will enter a path of convergence to structural targets and towards a sustainable public debt-to-GDP ratio, in line with the recommendations of the Autonomous Fiscal Council. This could be reinforced through permanent increases in tax revenues stemming from the reforms that have been recently announced by the Government.
This should be coupled with easier access to credit for productive enterprises - especially micro, small and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) – and reforms to foster technological change and productive diversification in line with the changing structure of the global economy. In the above recognition and its continued quest to contribute to unleashing the potential of local MSMEs, the Bank of Zambia hosted a strategic forum on the role of finance in this area, in June this year. As a follow-up, the Government is working closely with stakeholders and the cooperating partners in improving availability of financial resources to MSMEs. Further, some provision has been included in the 2013 Budget. Distinguished participants MSMEs could play an important role in creating employment and spurring growth. However, their competitiveness is undermined by inadequate infrastructure, limited access to financial and business services. Stakeholders can help small firms to integrate in, and reap more benefits from local and international value chains, by facilitating the provision of business services, among which continuous skills development is paramount. An important policy question is how to address the constraints which affect the capacity to grow and generate earnings of MSMEs, very often informal that operate in traditional sectors and account for the bulk of jobs in our country. This feat, ladies and gentlemen, can only be achieved gradually, as the drivers of informality are usually multiple and deeply rooted in long-standing development gaps and weaknesses.