In the emerging economies, performance remained uneven, while growth continued to cool in China. The global economy is expected to gather pace again, reinforced by expansionary monetary policy around the world and ongoing low oil prices. For instance, after a disappointing first  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  quarter, the two large economies, the US and China, are starting to show signs of improvement. Nonetheless, uncertainty about the future development of the global economy remains high. Various risks – first and foremost the difficult financial situation in Greece and geopolitical tensions – could jeopardise the recovery. Swiss economic outlook According to initial estimates, Switzerland’s real GDP declined slightly in the first quarter. As expected, goods exports suffered from the strong Swiss franc appreciation, but also from a downturn in global trade. Domestic demand, by contrast, developed robustly. Having said this, the situation varies considerably from one industry to another. Profit margins are under significant pressure in several sectors, and this is forcing companies to take steps to reduce production costs and raise efficiency. Against this backdrop, unemployment has increased slightly on a seasonally adjusted basis. Over the coming months, the global economic recovery is likely to lead to a gradual upturn in demand for Swiss products; this will cushion the impact of the exchange rate shock somewhat. As the global economy gathers momentum, we expect Switzerland to return to positive growth in the second half of the year. The SNB continues to anticipate growth of just under 1% for 2015 as a whole.
Inflation will reach its low point in the third quarter of 2015, at –1.2%. For the subsequent period, the new inflation forecast is slightly higher than in March due to the rise in oil prices. The short and medium-term forecast is up slightly, by 0.1 percentage points to –1.0% for 2015 and to –0.4% for 2016. The forecast continues to indicate that inflation will move back into positive territory at the beginning of 2017; there will be a slight slowdown in the rate of increase as the year progresses. The inflation forecast for 2017 is down by 0.1 percentage points, to 0.3%. The conditional forecast assumes that the three-month Libor will remain at –0.75% over the entire forecast horizon, and that the Swiss franc will weaken. Global economic outlook As our inflation forecast is heavily influenced by economic developments abroad, let me now present our assessment of the global economy. Global economic growth was weaker than expected in the first quarter of 2015, and this development had a detrimental impact on world trade. In the US, GDP declined slightly, partly due to special factors. Moreover, the strong US dollar weighed on exports. In the euro area, however, the economy continued to pick up, supported by persistent euro weakness and improved lending conditions. In contrast to the previous quarter, all of the large member states contributed to growth. Italy reported GDP growth for the first time since entering a multi-year recession. In Japan, too, the economy gained momentum.