The Germans have recognised these structural weaknesses and are taking steps to rectify them. However, one major obstacle to German banks divesting their industrial holdings has been the prohibitive capital gains tax. Now a Social Democrat government has proposed tax reforms that will remove this obstacle, and pave the way for banking and industrial conglomerates to untangle their web of cross shareholdings. In Asia, both South Korea and Japan relied on close association between banking and commerce in the earlier stages of their industrialisation. South Korean chaebols, and the banks that lent to them, are now facing painful reforms. Poor lending practices by Korean banks disguised the deteriorating finances of the chaebols, and eventually nearly brought the whole system down in the Asian crisis. In Japan, the pre-war zaibatsu system became the post-war keiretsu system. Each major keiretsu or industrial group consists of companies linked together through a web of cross-shareholdings, including a main bank. Keiretsu members support one another financially and in terms of direct business. The bank in the keiretsu plays a pivotal role, facilitating the financial transactions of the group. While the keiretsu system helped Japan to rebuild and industrialise its economy after the war, many of the problems of corporate governance and unsound banks that now plague Japan are rooted in this structure. The prolonged crisis of the Japanese economy since 1990 has forced a fundamental rethink. The Japanese are now gradually starting to make basic structural changes.
Legislators and other policymakers made substantial changes to the financial system to hold firms, and their managers and shareholders, more accountable. A great many of those changes have put both firms and the public sector in a better place. Today, regulators and supervisors expect systemically important financial institutions to be more resilient. They must be prepared for unanticipated losses and shocks to the financial system, including through rigorous (if not always popular) capital and liquidity standards. Supervised firms are also required to have a much greater understanding of the governance and controls supporting their critical operations. This includes, for example, governance frameworks, management information systems, and IT resiliency. This last point is particularly notable because, as many of you are now painfully aware from the data breaches at Equifax and Yahoo (and those are just the most recent ones), cybersecurity risk has increased dramatically in the last several years. Resilience goes a long way. It prepares firms to be ready to fight not only the last war, but also the unanticipated stresses of the next one. It prepares them not to rely on past performance as a guaranty of future performance. But, increased preparedness should not be cause for overconfidence. Supervision and regulation should not and cannot drive all risk from the financial system, and the probability of a systemically important institution’s failure will never be zero.