Indeed, the current crisis may be the most severe seen since the 1930s. However, caution is warranted when interpreting these developments. Not only are deviations from average historical regularities observed, but the full impact of the recent severe crisis is still uncertain. Third, it is clear that both supply and demand factors have driven credit developments in the euro area so far, as confirmed by the evidence provided by the bank lending survey. Overall, our assessment is that credit developments have thus far been affected more strongly by factors associated with weak macroeconomic conditions, such as lower credit demand and a decrease in the average level of creditworthiness of potential borrowers. However, supplyside factors have also played a role and should not be underestimated. SMEs’ access to finance I will now turn to some more direct evidence on SMEs’ access to finance in the euro area provided by a recent ECB survey. This survey, which was conducted for the first time in June-July 2009, asks firms across the European Union about their financing conditions over the previous six months, meaning broadly the first half of 2009 in this case. This survey should help over time to fill the gap regarding information on the financing conditions of SMEs in the euro area, since quantitative statistics provide very little evidence on the actual situation.
This behaviour is in sharp contrast to the intense accumulation of financial assets observed previously and reflects the adjustment of banks’ balance sheets in the context of the general deleveraging process. The decline in the annual growth rates of assets has been most visible in short-term loans and deposits as well as in liquid assets, such as equities and mutual fund shares. The sharp contraction in interbank deposits has mainly reflected the freezing of the interbank market following the onset of the financial turmoil, in the context of which euro area monetary financial institutions (MFIs) withdrew their short-term deposits placed at banks. In addition, euro area banks have scaled down their deposits with other counterparts outside the euro area. As well as downsizing their external assets, banks initially scaled down their investment in marketable assets. By contrast, partly related to “relationship banking”, the growth rates of long-term loans have held up. Banks’ investment in long-term debt securities even accelerated in early 2009; indeed, MFIs stepped up their purchases of government debt securities, reflecting the generous liquidity situation in an environment of heightened risk aversion. While the slowdown in the growth rate of assets in principle limits the earning capacity of banks, other factors contributed in the first half of 2009 to a marked improvement in the profitability of large banking groups in the euro area. Net interest income was the main factor behind this improvement, owing to the positive slope of the yield curve and wider operating margins.