Since summer 2005, the key policy rate has gradually been raised again to a more normal level in order to prevent inflation from becoming too high. As mentioned, external interest rates are again moving down and the interest rate differential against other countries has widened recently. This may lead to a stronger krone, but there are also opposing forces in the foreign exchange market. In the long run, the krone exchange rate is determined by changes in the terms of trade and permanent differences between domestic and external inflation and productivity. But the krone exchange rate also shows monthly and yearly fluctuations. The krone was strong towards the end of the previous cyclical expansion, but depreciated when interest rates declined in 2003. Thereafter, the krone appreciated again as growth in the Norwegian economy recovered. Over the past two years, the krone has appreciated by close to 5 per cent. Inflation has nevertheless picked up and is now fairly close to 2½ per cent. 3  3  Norges Bank uses different measures of underlying inflation. In January, the twelve-month rise in the CPI-ATE was 1.9 per cent, a weighted median showed a rise of 2.4 per cent and a trimmed mean 2.9 per cent. The twelve-month rise in the CPI was 3.7 per cent following a sharp increase in energy prices. 4  BIS Review 18/2008  The sizeable basic balance deficit may result in a renewed depreciation of the krone.
Overall, given the acceptance of countercyclical approaches to macroprudential policy, I am sure that the panel discussion tomorrow on the Spanish countercyclical provisions experience will offer not just an interesting study in history, but also some lessons for the future. Without further ado, I am pleased to open this first Conference on Financial Stability giving the floor now to Rafael Repullo, director of CEMFI, who will chair the first session. Thank you for your attention. 5/5