Forecasts for Annual Growth 2009  2010  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  World  -1,3  -1,4  1,9  2,5  Developed Countries  -3,8  -3,8  0,0  0,6  USA  -2,8  -2,6  0,0  0,8  Eurozone  -4,2  -4,8  -0,4  -0,3  Developing Countries 1,6  1,5  4,0  4,7  IMF  OECD All OECD Members  -4,3  -4,1  -0,1  0,7  USA  -4,0  -2,8  0,0  0,9  Eurozone  -4,1  -4,8  -0,3  0,0  World  -2,1  -2,6  1,9  2,1  USA  -2,7  -2,6  1,8  2,1  Eurozone  -3,4  -4,4  0,3  0,4  Consensus Forecasts *  Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April and IMF World Economic Outlook Update, July. OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report, March and OECD Economic Outlook, 2009/I, June. *Consensus Forecasts, April and Consensus Forecasts, July. In sum, assessing domestic and external demand developments together, revised forecasts for medium-term inflation are based on a framework where aggregate demand conditions would support disinflation for a long period of time. Distinguished Guests, Despite the realization that recovery in the global economy will be slow, increasing perceptions regarding the worst part of the crisis being over caused a rebound in commodity prices.
Figure 24: Composition Unemployment  of  the  Change  in  Non-Agricultural  (Seasonally adjusted, Quarterly Difference, Thousand People) Participation to Labor Market Change in Employment Net Change in Unemployment  500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 -300 1  2  3 2007  4  1  2  3 2008  4  1 2009  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Recent data include signs of partial recovery in domestic demand conditions and economic activity in line with the policy rate cut cycle, accompanied by the financial measures (Figure 25). However, the negative effects of uncertainties in aggregate demand and low capacity utilization rates on investments and employment are expected to last in the upcoming period as well. Besides, high levels of unemployment are expected to restrict private consumption expenditures. In addition to these, considering the ongoing partial tightness in financial conditions, the Central Bank considers that the uncertainties pertaining to the strength and endurance of the recent partial revival in demand may not yet have come to an end.