The baseline scenario in our December Monetary Policy Report is still totally valid. Our aforementioned report and the market expect a moderate deceleration of Chile’s growth. Our economy is forecast to grow in the range of 3.75% to 4.75% in 2012, with y-o-y rates for every expenditure component below those of 2011. This would be the response both to a normal, sound convergence of the economy to trend-consistent growth rates, and to the effects of a less favorable external environment. The latest data show our economy gradually adjusting to lower growth rates, at the same time that expenditure indicators are still showing substantial growth. Sure enough, there are differences across sectors. In some branches of manufacturing, especially export-oriented ones, dynamism is milder. In other sectors, such as retail, there is some degree of higher  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  caution in inventory management. By contrast, the consumption of durable and capital goods, which are normally the first to react to a change in the agents’ expectations, remains strong, the same as the construction sector. Meanwhile, various indicators signal a tight labor market. It has been recently reported that in December, the unemployment rate as measured by the Universidad de Chile survey for Greater Santiago dropped to a 15-year low, and that the creation of new jobs has, for the most part, been accounted for by salaried employment.
Jiří Rusnok: The future of monetary policy - what can we see as the dust has settled? Opening remarks by Mr Jiří Rusnok, Governor of the Czech National Bank, at the High-Level Economic Conference, Prague, 16 June 2019. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, dear guests, I wish you a good morning. It is my pleasure to welcome you all to this high-level conference on “The Future of Monetary Policy: What Can We See as the Dust Has Settled?” hosted by the Czech National Bank. This conference is organised as part of this year’s celebrations of the 100th anniversary of the introduction of our national currency – named the koruna – in 1919. Before I give the floor to the distinguished speakers, let me first make a few remarks that will set the stage for the upcoming event. During the past 100 years, our currency and the overall economic situation of our country has enjoyed times of economic prosperity, but also some more difficult periods. This alternation between good and bad times applies elsewhere. Before the outbreak of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008, it seemed that monetary policy had triumphed. Inflation in advanced countries and elsewhere had decreased to low and stable levels. The goal of price stability had been achieved. Central banks were using standard tools with well understood transmission mechanisms. The outbreak of the Great Recession suddenly changed this perspective. The GFC brought significant economic slack and deflationary tendencies to many countries. In response, central banks started using unconventional tools.