8  Figure 1 Accumulated inflation, February - December 2018  Evolution of CPI and CPIEFE inflation (1) (2)  (percent)  (annual change, percent)  CPI  2.5  CPIEFE  2.5  2.0  2.0  1.5  1.5  4.5  4.0  4.0  3.5  1.0  1.0  4.5  3.0  3.0  2.5  2.5  2.0  2.0  1.5 0.5  0.5 0.0  Basket Basket 2013 2018  Basket 2013  Basket 2018  1.5  CPIEFE  1.0  0.0  3.5  CPI  1.0  0.5  0.5  0.0  0.0 18  Abr. Jul. Oct.  19  (1) As from January 2019 the lines use the new indexes with annual base 2018=100, so they are not strictly comparable with earler figures. (2) Blue (red) diamonds show the annual CPI (CPIEFE) variation using the 2013=100 basket. As from February 2018, they show the annual change that is obtained by splicing the 2013=100 basket series with the monthly variations in the 2018=100 basket. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE). Source: National Statistics Institute (INE). Figure 2 Exchange rate and goods EFE (annual change, percent)  6  30  5  25  4  20 TCN (right axis)  3  goods EFE (*)  2  15 10  1  5  0  0  -1  -5  -2  -10  -3  -15 16  16 Jul.
For the medium term, our projections are consistent with the MPR reaching its neutral level towards the end of the policy horizon. The Board has estimated for some time that the neutral MPR is between 4% and 4.5%. This parameter that will also be revised in the June Report. V.4. Risk scenarios  The base scenario that I have just presented reflects the events most likely to occur with the information at hand at the close of this Report. There are risks, however, that, if materialized, may reshape the macroeconomic outlook and the course of monetary policy. On the external front, despite having steadily input lower growth prospects, the risk balance continues to be biased downward. The main risk remains that of an abrupt reversal of financial conditions facing emerging economies, which could be triggered by various reasons, including a more abrupt and widespread slowdown in world growth or the negative evolution of the various geopolitical tensions that have persisted in the recent past. Although in such a scenario the main central banks would probably expand their monetary policies, a lower appetite for risk and declines in commodity prices are also possible, more than offsetting these lower interest rates. At home, it is estimated that the risk balance for both activity and inflation is unbiased. First, the massive immigration of recent years may have a greater impact on growth and inflation.