Since the economic expansion began in 1992, annual output growth has averaged just less than 3% while the rate of inflation has averaged just under 2 ½%. The number of people in employment last year(on the LFS measure) continued to rise fairly steadily to an all-time high; the number of unemployed people fell to below one million (on the claimant count measure) for the first time since December 1975, and the rate of unemployment fell to its lowest in more than 25 years in the United Kingdom as a whole, and to its lowest for more than 20 years in every individual region. But, my Lord Mayor, even if – as I at least continue to believe – we are living on an island, that does not make us immune from developments abroad. In particular, we are bound to be affected by current developments in the United States, both directly, and indirectly, through the knock-on effects on third countries, with those effects on the Eurozone particularly important for us. By this time last year it had become clear that, even on the most optimistic view of improving underlying productivity – as the application of new information and communications technologies spread through the American economy – the rate of growth in the US, of over 5%, was unsustainable in the light of increasing domestic and external imbalances. The pace of US domestic demand growth needed to slow – as of course it has.
Long periods of strong growth in debt, asset prices and investment may be a source of subsequent instability and problems in the financial system. We have observed this phenomenon both in Norway and in other countries. When optimism turns to pessimism, the financial system can come under pressure. However, it is not possible to determine with any certainty the value of debt, asset prices and investment that may constitute an unacceptable risk in this context. The pace of growth in household borrowing cannot be sustained over time. It would probably be wise for both borrowers and lenders to acknowledge that the root of subsequent problems, and demanding corrections, is often to be found during such periods. Thank you for your attention. 6/6