The biggest impact from war developments is expected to be shown in the data of the fourth quarter of 2022 and the first half of 2023. This outlook is reflected in the latest ECB projections for economic growth, which have been revised down markedly for the remainder of the current year and for 2023. The euro area economy is now expected to grow by 3.1 percent in 2022, 0.9 percent in 2023 and 1.9 percent in 2024, compared to the December 2021 projections of 4,2 percent, 2,9 percent and 1,6 percent respectively. Harmonized inflation rose to a high of 9.1 percent in August, up from 8.9 percent in July, indicating a continuing rising trend. For the period January-August as a whole, inflation stood at 7,6 percent. Compared with the June 2022 Eurosystem staff Broad Macroeconomic Projection Exercise, headline inflation has been substantially revised up in September by 1,3 percentage points to 8,1 percent for 2022, by 2 percentage points to 5,5 percent for 2023 and by 0,2 percentage points to 2,3 percent for 2024. Energy price inflation remained extremely elevated, (at 38.3 per cent), and it continues  1/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  to be the dominant component of overall inflation. Market-based indicators suggest that, in the near term, oil prices are likely to moderate, while wholesale gas prices will stay extraordinarily high. The relatively high import share of gas needed for the EU27 energy consumption, will create extensive challenges in the coming winter months, especially, in countries with gas-intensive industrial sectors.
Andrew G Haldane: The Sneetches Speech by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at the Scottish Business Friends dinner in aid of BBC Children in Need, Edinburgh, 12 May 2016. * * * Accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech. I would like to thank Kiran Bance, Venetia Bell, Stephen Brown, Gurmaj Dhillon, Will Dowson, Jeremy Franklin, Richard Galletly, Cat Hines, Charlotte Hogg, Tom Mann, Matthew Manning, Alex Mitchell, Ben Nelson, Raakhi Odedra, Charlotte Pope-Williams, Alice Pugh, Amandeep Rehlon, May Rostom, Emma Sinclair, Anne Wetherilt and Richard Wyatt for their comments and contributions. I would also like to thank Professors Philip Bond and Heidi Johansen-Berg and Alan Milburn and Emma Hardaker-Jones for their insights. In 1953, Dr Seuss published The Sneetches. 1 It tells the tale of an imaginary creature of which there are two types: those with and those without stars on their bellies (Figure 1). Star-bellied Sneetches are perceived in Sneetch society to be superior to those without. Until, that is, those without discover a machine for adding stars to their bellies. At that point the original star-bellied Sneetches, no longer distinctive, begin removing their stars to regain their special status. And so it goes on in a merry-go-round, until the Sneetches collectively realise they are better off treating equally those with and those without. The Sneetches is a parody of status and discrimination.