Figure 7 A time-varying capital requirement Tier 1 Capital  Countercyclical capital requirements  M inimum requirements  Upturn  10  Downturn  time  BIS Review 68/2010  When economic activity is strong, the capital requirement is high, and vice versa. This timevarying capital requirement has two functions. The first is to build up the bank’s capital buffer when times are good and then let this buffer decrease during less favourable periods. The second function is to dampen credit growth when times are good by increasing the capital requirement and thereby the bank’s lending costs. This increase in the bank’s lending costs in turn implies an increase in the interest rate margin – and thus the lending rate. In light of the discussion of “just the right level of regulation”, a time-varying capital requirement and other regulations varying across time may have certain advantages. Their more apparent connection with risk build-up may make them less costly than the alternative of introducing a constant higher “minimum requirement”. One objective of varying regulations across time is to affect credit growth through the interest rate margin. This creates an additional source of variation in the interest rate margin, which can be illustrated in the lending rate equation by adding an additional time index for the regulations:  itlending  it   t ( zt ) . An interest rate margin with time-varying regulations also implies another dynamic for the transmission mechanism and is more complicated than a one-off shift.
This was formalised in guidelines set out in the Exchange Rate Regulation laid down by Royal Decree of 6 May 1994. If stabilisation policy is to have the intended effect, all components of policy must function effectively. This has not been the case in the last three years. For several years, average annual growth rates and employment growth have been markedly higher in Norway than the average for the rest of Europe. In part fuelled by the sharp expansion  BIS Review /1998  –2–  in petroleum investment, pressures built up in the economy, accompanied by growing labour shortages. Following the currency crisis in autumn 1992, Norwegian interest rates rapidly fell to European levels. The interest rate level in Europe fell after the turmoil early in the 1990s. As growth gradually picked up in Norway, the economy was stabilised by tightening fiscal policy. In order to stabilise the krone exchange rate, Norges Bank reduced its key rates at the beginning of 1997 after the krone had appreciated markedly over a period. Fiscal policy is an important instrument for smoothing fluctuations in the economy. However, it has proved difficult to prevent fiscal policy from being influenced by mood shifts that occur when the economy approaches a peak and memories of earlier recessions fade. Monetary policy shall provide a nominal anchor for economic developments. With exchange rate stability as the anchor, monetary policy may be pro-cyclical in periods.