Brad Delong has speculated that, just as “peak horse” was reached in the early part of the 20th century, perhaps “peak human” could be reached during this century (Delong (2014)). In the words of Marc Andresen, in future there could be two types of worker – those who own the robots and those who work for them. If these visions were to be realised, however futuristic this sounds, the labour market patterns of the past three centuries would shift to warp speed. If the option of skilling-up is no longer available, this increases the risk of large scale un- or under-employment. The wage premium for those occupying skilled positions could explode, further widening wage differentials. And labour’s share of the pie could fall even more dramatically than in the past. On this view, the tree could become hollowed-out to the point that it may no longer be able to support itself. This too may sound like science fiction. Yet in a survey of almost 2,000 (admittedly selfselecting) technologists and economists in 2014, the Pew Research Center found that almost half thought AI and robots would cause a significant and persistent displacement of labour in future (Pew Research Center (2014)). Maybe Ricardo and the Luddites had a point after all, albeit two hundred years too early. Public policy implications If one of these scenarios were to play out, its implications for the economy and society, for industries and individuals, would be massive.
•  Five of the top 10 primary growth markets will be in the Asia-Pacific; this includes China, India, and Indonesia. There are three structural factors driving demand for insurance in Emerging Asia. First, Asia is getting richer. Projections by the IMF show that Emerging Asia will remain the fastest growing region in the world over the next decade. As incomes rise in Asia, governments, corporates, and individuals will increasingly seek insurance to protect their growing economic assets. •  Burgeoning urbanisation, infrastructure development, and cross-border trade will drive demand for commercial and specialty insurance. •  A growing middle class and rising affluence will underpin a steady increase in life and health insurance penetration rates. Second, Asia is getting older. Asia is facing declining fertility rates, increasing life expectancy, and a rapidly ageing population. •  The United Nations projects that, by 2030, Asia’s old age dependency ratio will be 16%, up from today’s 11%. •  Against this demographic backdrop, public retirement and pension systems in Asia remain inadequate. The retirement gap between savings and retirement needs can be as high as 13 years. •  This will spur greater demand for private health insurance, annuity and other retirement security products. Third, Asia is becoming more aware of catastrophic risk. •  Over the last 30 years, Asia has borne the brunt of natural catastrophe losses, accounting for almost half of the world’s estimated economic losses from natural disasters. Yet less than 5% of the losses were insured, compared to 40% in advanced economies.