Increases in productivity especially in the agricultural sector are of vital importance and thus call for prompt action for the developing countries that are witnessing a shift in employment from agriculture to nonagriculture sectors. In a similar sense, measures for achieving more effective use of energy by companies and households, and for increasing the use alternative energy sources, especially renewable energy, should be the another issue among the priorities on the part of both advanced and developing countries, dependent on imported energy inputs. Esteemed Participants, A comprehensive literature has been guiding central bankers as to the type of monetary policy responses to be given to commodity price changes. The central banks following to the widely accepted advice put forth by this literature endeavor to contain the second-round effects of the commodity price increases, rather than the first-round effects. It is inevitable for commodity price increases to be reflected directly on prices, because of the high weight of goods linked to energy and other commodities in consumer price indices. That is why the first-round effects cause fluctuations in inflation. Nevertheless, temporary movements in commodity prices, unless they affect the general pricing behavior, do not affect the mediumterm outlook, but just remain as relative price changes. That is why those central banks pursuing monetary policy with a medium-term perspective prefer to refrain from sharp policy responses to the abovementioned first-round effects. Understanding the sources of the price fluctuations prior to making decisions is a prerequisite for policy makers.
On the fiscal front, cuts in wage and corporate income taxes differentiated across regions have been put in place last week to support the economy that is already growing at a moderate pace. 1  On March 15, 2009 Special Consumption Tax (SCT) rates were decreased on vehicles to %18 from %37, and on durable goods and other electrical household appliances to %0 from %6.7. These rates were increased on vehicles to %28, on durable goods to %2 and on other electrical household appliances to %6.7 on 16 June, 2009. By October 1, 2009, SCT rates were brought back to the levels before March 2009. Similarly, Value Added Tax (VAT) rates on furniture and IT products were slashed to %8 on March 30, 2009, before being raised back to the initial rate of %18 on October 1, 2009. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Dear Participants, So far I have touched on the impacts of movements in commodity prices on inflation and economic growth. Now I will talk about the impact of fluctuations in commodity prices on foreign trade balances. The dependency of the Turkish economy on energy imports makes the current accounts balance more sensitive to changes in commodity prices. Uncertainties regarding the global economy in recent years and the exceptionally loose monetary policies adopted by advanced economies, such as the United States, Japan and the Euro Area, foreshadow the high probability of continued excess volatility in commodity prices.