Figure 15 Nominal exchange rate  Copper price (*)  (index, 01/02/2006=100)  (dollars per pound)  140  140  130  130  120  120  110  110  100  100  90  90  80  06 OER  07  08 MER  09  80  10 11 Multilateral dollar  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  06  07  08  09  10  11  11(f) 12 12(f) 13  1  (*) Red dots indicate average copper price forecast for 2011 and 2012 in December 2010's Monetary Policy Report; green dots indicate the same in March 2011's Report. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and Bloomberg. 14  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 16 Change in nominal exchange rate with respect to 2008 average (*) (percent) 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10  Turkey  U.K.  Poland  Russia  Mexico  Hungary  Eurozone  Czech Republic  Norway  South Korea  Israel  Philippines  Peru  Colombia  Chile  N.Zealand  Canada  Thailand  Brazil  Malaysia  Indonesia  Switzerland  South Africa  Japan  -20  Australia  -15  (*) Above zero value indicates an appreciation of the local currency against the U.S. dollar. Source: Bloomberg.
Likewise, business and consumer confidence surveys show increased concerns about inflation. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  As usual, there are various risks that could shape a different macroeconomic scenario. On this occasion, the Board believes the risk balance for both inflation and output is biased upward. The main risk to inflation has to do with the size, persistence and propagation of the shock to commodity prices, especially oil. Internationally, as I said, the baseline scenario assumes that the oil price will be high and fairly stable. However, it may happen that the political tensions in some oil-exporting countries continue or intensify, resulting in a steeper upward trend. The global effects of such a setting are clearly inflationary in the immediate future, while further down the line its combined effects on world demand and interest rates may moderate world economic activity (table 3). In the case of foodstuff prices, current aggregate indexes are above their peak of 2007–2008, although the composition of products showing the bigger increases differs. In any case, the velocity of these hikes has been greater than that of the last episode (figure 12). Both futures prices and analysts’ projections assume that the prices of these products will not increase further but will rather tend to normalize. Still, it cannot be ruled out that if supply-side problems in the agricultural sector persist within a context of strong growth in emerging economies, pressures on the prices of foodstuffs may be intensified.