This figure was in contrast to the rise of almost 160,000 in Social Security registrations in the same period in 2019. In any event, the Social Security figures provide a partial view of the consequences of the current crisis on the labour market. An even larger contingent of employees, some 3.4 million, have availed themselves of temporary lay-off arrangements (known as ERTE by their Spanish name). As you are aware, ERTEs entail the formal maintenance of the contractual relationship, pending the resumption of activity, although there is no actual employment benefit. Moreover, 1.3 million self-employed workers have applied for the benefit for the cessation of activity. 7  No indicators (other than some qualitative ones) are available yet for Q2, meaning it would be premature to project the decline in GDP in this quarter. In any event, given that the number of weeks affected by the lockdown is much greater than in Q1, a significant acceleration in the fall in GDP is to be expected.1 Beyond the short term, estimates of the duration and depth of the effects of the shock on the economy are still subject to much uncertainty. In principle, if these uncertainties clear over the coming months, a rebound in activity into the second half of the year might be expected. But that will depend broadly on two types of factors. The first relates to the future course of the illness.
Reforming and adapting financial regulation remains an urgent priority. G20 Leaders have agreed on detailed principles and a roadmap. The newly formed Financial Stability Board has the difficult task of steering regulatory reform. We are very fortunate that the FSB, as well as the Basel Committee, has been enlarged and become a true reflection of the world economy. As you may know, the European Union is moving towards the creation of a new European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB) which will be responsible for macro-financial supervision and will draw extensively on the resources and expertise of the Eurosystem. In France, the Government has decided to create a single authority responsible both for banking and insurance supervision, with very close links to the Central Bank. This will enable us to look at the state of and developments in the financial system from a truly systemic perspective. Much remains to be done. Let me outline the main objectives. In the current circumstances we should (1) try and keep up the momentum in the pursuit of reforms, (2) achieve balance in the implementation of the agenda; and, (3) ensure consistency between our regulatory actions and macroeconomic policy. Keeping up the momentum Over the last few weeks, major international banks have announced impressive quarterly profits. It is striking that these performances were achieved only a few months after some of those same institutions came very close to failure. This might give the impression that the financial sector has recovered its balance and that no further reforms are necessary.