One of the first means of paying tribute to him that occurred to us was to publish a book with a broad selection of these texts. On reading it you will see how many of the subjects he tackled over the course of his term of office, from 1992 to 2000, remain fully valid in today’s economic debate. Along with the publication of this book we decided to hold this Conference as a tribute, structuring it around a discussion of the pivotal areas of Ángel Rojo’s economic thought. We are joined by a select group of speakers whose common denominator, in addition to their professional standing, is to have shared concerns and experiences with him at different times in his life and in his various fields of academic, institutional, domestic and international activity. The Conference comprises four sessions that turn on subjects which largely reflect the main areas in which he developed his body of academic work and his best economic policy contributions. The first session addresses monetary and fiscal policy; the second, the challenges of European integration; and the third and fourth, the Spanish economy and the role Ángel Rojo played in the design of Spain’s economic policy. Ángel Rojo’s main achievement as Governor was his contribution to Spain joining the euro as a founding member.
A substantial portion of the capital inflows that finance our current account deficit has come from foreign central banks—which have been accumulating dollar reserves to preserve exchange rate arrangements that are unlikely to be sustainable and are already in the process of change. The impact of a reduction in the scale of official accumulation of dollar assets could be fully offset by increases in purchases by private investors. But even in the context of a continued high degree of confidence in the relative return on claims on the United States, it is hard to know with confidence how the preferences of private savers might respond to the process of gradual evolution in their nation’s exchange rate regimes now underway. And most importantly, perhaps, these imbalances matter because at some point they will have to reverse. Market forces will at some point induce an adjustment. And that inevitable process of adjustment will bring with it the risk of large movements in relative prices, greater volatility in asset prices and slower growth in the United States and in the rest of the world. The magnitude of this risk is difficult to measure with any confidence. Past episodes of external adjustment offer some reassurance, but the present circumstances seem sufficiently different from historical precedent that history may not be a particularly useful guide.