Central banks have an additional stake in this game. Cash is one of our main products and an increased supply of services from non-banks is likely to reduce its usage. On the one hand, central bank should embrace the development from an efficiency point of view. On the other, a rapid decrease in the use of cash is not without problems. This is only a few of the aspects that may be debated in the second session. The third topic is the future and we all want to know what it will look like. Will the banks be reduced to mere suppliers of infrastructure and account holding services while other actors, the non-banks, have most of the end-user relation-ship? Or will the banks win by knock-out? Will the non-banks become banks over time as their activity expands? Will payment services be delivered to us by Apple? Google? Facebook? Alibaba? What about Bitcoin and its peers? Will we simply have payment services provided by an anonymous network? In addition to having all these kinds of issue debated among representatives for market actors and authorities, we will also have the pleasure of listening to the academic perspective of Professor Charles M. Kahn from the University of Illinois. I’m really looking forward to learning more about all these topics today. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3
In particular, despite the positive factors I have cited, the growth in manufacturing output has been only moderate, with the  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  overall manufacturing capacity utilization rate still below its pre-recession level. Thus, outside of the energy intensive sectors, there still appears to be little near-term motivation for firms to invest in order to increase their productive capacity. Businesses seem to be waiting for stronger demand before they significantly increase their investment outlays. Thus, we have a second chicken-egg problem. On the trade side, the news is mixed. Although Japanese and European economic activity has picked up recently, the sustainability remains in question. Even as Europe emerges from its recession, growth is likely to be anemic at best over the next year, constrained by continued fiscal consolidation and tight credit conditions as their banks continue to deleverage. In Japan, the consumption tax is scheduled to increase significantly next year, which is likely to constrain domestic demand. Moreover, the recent improvement in Europe and Japan has been offset by slowing in some emerging market economies. In fact, some emerging market economies are under pressure because they are running large current account and trade deficits. Any forced correction among these countries on trade is likely to be a drag on global growth and on U.S. exports over the near term.