Lars Nyberg: The mortgage market from a Riksbank perspective Speech by Mr Lars Nyberg, Deputy Governor of the Sveriges Riksbank, at The Swedish Bankers’ Association’s Annual Bank Meeting 2004, Stockholm, 11 November 2004. *  *  *  First and foremost, thank you for the invitation to speak at the bank meeting today. The mortgage market is the focus of today’s meeting and I will discuss this market from a Riksbank perspective. But what is that exactly? The Riksbank’s remit is to conduct monetary policy in such a way that leads to stable prices, but also to promote stability and efficiency in the payment system. For both of these tasks, the situation in the mortgage market since the mid-1990s, with increasing household debt and rising housing prices, has been of great interest. Is this development sustainable? And if not, what should be done? Incidentally, we share these issues with a number of other countries in the Western world. I intend to begin with a brief reminder of how we arrived at this situation. Then I will discuss the risks to financial stability. Finally I will give my views on the possible implications for the inflation target and monetary policy. Housing prices and debt Since 1996 house prices have risen by just over 80 per cent in current prices. Swedish household debt has increased by 85 per cent over the same period (Figure 1).
Priority actions should, therefore, focus on addressing the underlying issues, and efforts at further expanding the already established toolkit come next. This would require bold steps at both the EU and national levels to regain confidence in the future of EU integration. At the EU level, there are institutional issues to be addressed concerning the future of the integration process. The five scenarios recently proposed by Commission President JeanClaude Juncker shed light on the possible patterns of integration between the EU members. However, there remains a potential conflict between the prospects of “multiple-speed” developments and advancing real convergence between the euro area and the rest of the EU. The EU needs to move promptly on this issue, in order to address uncertainties. The national authorities, at their end, should promote financial stability and fiscal solvency, and address structural weaknesses and bottlenecks. The experience of Bulgaria may be indicative of what can be done by an EU member state that is not yet member of the euro area. From the central bank perspective this involves: (i) a sound banking sector; (ii) fiscal consolidation; and (iii) structural reforms. Good progress has been made in Bulgaria with regard to the first two areas. A comprehensive asset quality review in 2016 helped restore confidence in the banking sector. Bank lending is recovering, the overall profit is near historical highs and a process of market-based consolidation in the sector is underway, including a recent deal with a strategic investor from the euro area.