Statistical data is used in various negotiations. There are many examples. Wage bargaining is strongly affected by the evolution of prices. So-called “inflation clauses” form part of many agreements, for example rental contracts. Statistical data also serve as a basis for the decisions of various authorities. Central banks are a specific category. They significantly affect the economic environment. To be able to perform their duties properly, central banks need high-quality statistical information. “Nothing is more important for monetary policy than good statistics”. This is how Alexander Lamfalussy, the former President of the European Monetary Institute, the predecessor of the European Central Bank, characterised the importance of statistics for successful monetary policymaking. This year marks the fifteenth anniversary on the path of transformation from a centrally controlled economy to a market economy. All areas of our life underwent dramatic changes, statistics being no exception. In the early 1990s, the Czech National Bank worked in close co-operation with the International Monetary Fund. Individual missions visited us several times a year. Statistics was one of the first areas in which such co-operation was established. This is entirely logical, since without the creation of a basic statistical framework it would not have been possible to communicate on monetary policy matters. Among the most important outcomes was a creation of monetary survey. This survey made it possible to compile monetary and credit aggregates. One of the preconditions for influencing the money supply was to establish what is known as the “monetary base”.
What I believe most people understand by this concept is a return to the standard operating mode of monetary policy, i.e. the withdrawal of the unconventional policy tools deployed during the crisis, which would entail a gradual increase in short-term interest rates and a gradual unwinding of bloated central bank balance sheets. The latter is by far the most challenging process, as the impact on global asset prices is a delicate issue, which not only requires good planning and favorable macroeconomic conditions, but is also bound to be lengthy. As regards the other element of policy normalisation – the increase in short-term interest rates –, while less controversial, it is by no means problem-free, considering its implications for financial stability. To quote the BIS Annual Report 2017, “policy normalisation presents unprecedented challenges, given the current high debt levels and unusual uncertainty”. The increase in short-term interest rates is an element of normalisation that also applies to the central banks that did not step out of the conventional framework – and this is the case in most Central, Eastern and South-Eastern European countries. Personally, I see normalisation as amounting ultimately to a return to real positive interest rates. I doubt, however, that this will be a swift process. In the case of Romania, the steps taken so far along the road to policy normalisation, were facilitated by two favourable developments in the banking sector.