All these phenomena push the borders of informality further and reduce the monetary policy efficiency. It is the financial system’s duty and responsibility to make all its efforts in co-operation with the Bank of Albania and other Government authorities to find the solution to these problems. In conclusion I would like to say that as a result of the reforms undertaken, the Albanian banking system, being the most dynamic part of the financial system, has made significant progress during the last years. This progress results from the clear visions and seriousness shown by the Albanian authorities in reforming the banking sector, the fruitful co-operation these authorities have had with the international financial institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank for designing medium-term strategies and developing this sector further. This progress is also a result of the numerous challenges the Albanian banking system has been faced with over the recent years. It may be concluded that the Albanian banking system is presented safe, sound, under a constant reformation and consolidation process. It is going through a new stage, which will provide to the business and the banking clients modern banking services, aiming to reach the western banks’ standards. ¨ With regard to the aspirations of the Albanian economy and strategies to be employed for its further opening to foreign investors, we believe that these undertakings will have a positive impact on the country’s macroeconomic, technological and institutional area.
In the past few decades, international estimates of the neutral real interest rate have fallen and are now at 1 percent or below in many countries (see Rachel et al (2015), Laubach et al (2015), Hamilton et al (2015), Constâncio (2016) and Zhu (2016)). Obviously, international interest rate developments affect Norwegian interest rate setting, particularly through the exchange rate channel. And Norges Bank’s estimate of the neutral interest rate has been gradually revised down in pace with international developments. The Bank’s forecasts are now based on the assumption that a neutral nominal money market rate in Norway will be between 2½ percent and 3½ percent in the coming years. The associated neutral nominal key policy rate is somewhat lower.1 The low level of the neutral interest rate raises a number of issues. Today, I would like to focus on two aspects that have been given weight in recent years in Norges Bank’s assessment of a robust interest rate path. The first is that the effect of changes in the policy rate tends to be more uncertain when the rate is very low. The second relates to the challenge persistently low interest rates pose to financial stability. GREATER UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE EFFECT OF THE POLICY RATE Monetary policy decisions are made under uncertainty. Central banks operate in an environment of uncertainty regarding the current situation, the driving forces in the economy and the functioning of the economy. Much of this uncertainty is associated with conditions beyond the influence of monetary policy.