In regard to inflation, after a period in which inflation was below the levels the Fed judges to be most consistent with its statutory objectives, on a year-over-year basis, headline CPI (consumer price index) has increased more than 3 percent, which is somewhat above this desired level. The rise in commodity prices over the past year probably will push up headline  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  inflation further in the next few months. It is noteworthy, however, that even with the sharp rise in oil and food prices over the past year (and notwithstanding the more recent drops), there has been limited pass-through into the prices of other goods and services. In fact, most measures of underlying inflation trends – such as core inflation (which excludes volatile food and energy prices) – remain below levels consistent with our mandate for price stability. Going forward, futures markets do not signal that investors expect rapid ongoing increases in commodity prices from current levels. Provided these prices stabilize (or indeed retreat further), I would expect headline inflation to move back to a more mandate-consistent rate. While this process plays out, however, it is critical that we ensure that inflation expectations do not become unmoored. It is much harder to keep inflation in check if people begin to raise their expectations of inflation. At this point, measures of inflation expectations overall remain stable. Economists at the New York Fed have examined inflation expectations using a unique survey that we sponsor.
However, they have reached an affluent status today through their various actions and initiatives. Obviously therefore, as in the case of any successful outcome, we could learn from those case  BIS Review 83/2006  1  studies. In fact, we in Sri Lanka felt that we should do so professionally and objectively. We began by examining the economic and political environments in which many of the highly successful countries operated. We studied the external and internal conditions that prevailed during the early days of growth of those countries. We also attempted to analyze the factors which enabled those countries to break the shackles and reach a stable platform from where they launched themselves to the next level of development. In that exercise, one of our key findings was that, in the journey to reach developed and industrialized country status, many of those countries had immense space and flexibility to grow in an uninhibited environment. Further, when the present day rich countries were growing, (from per capita income of US dollars 1,000 to US dollars 10,000), they faced very few obstacles in the movement of capital and labour. They did not have to be overly concerned about human or labour rights. They were free to impose trade quotas and grant very visible and obvious subsidies to their local entrepreneurs and farmers. They were not subjected to stringent global standards for copyrights. They were not desperately worried about safeguarding the ozone layer or the environment.