Notwithstanding this 25bp increase, Bank Rate remains close to its lowest rate its 323 year history (Slide 2). 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  I wasn’t in that majority. That was not because I disagree with the overall framework for setting monetary policy in this exceptional period, but rather because I have a somewhat different assessment of the economy. By way of framing my own decision, let me give a few comparisons to how things might have turned out in the absence of Brexit, for which I will use the MPC’s May 2016 forecast as a proxy (Slide 3). GDP growth in the year to 2017 Q2 (the latest quarter for which we have a full set of both expenditure and labour market data and the latest data available at the time of the November MPC decision) was 0.8pp weaker than the MPC’s May 2016 forecast, within which business investment growth was a full 5.2pp lower. Despite the weakness in output, employment and hours have actually been stronger than expected, meaning productivity growth per hour was been 2.2pp weaker in the year to 2017Q2. Nominal wage growth was 1.5pp weaker than in the pre-Brexit forecast, which, coupled with the effects of the depreciation on inflation, meant real wage growth was 2.6pp weaker. So, how does this nexus of data fit into my assessment of the economy? Let me start with demand, which is arguably the most straightforward to explain.
But effective delivery extends well beyond mechanically changing parameters within our systems. The Bank’s operations in money, gilt, corporate bond and foreign exchange markets, its operation of the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) system, all supported by its comprehensive financial and operational risk 8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  8  management framework, afford it a unique insight into the workings of the financial system. Markets and Banking staff are thus able to advise members of the MPC, FPC and PRC about key developments in monetary and financial conditions. Our operations also leave us well placed to assess the resilience and effectiveness of markets and the infrastructure that underpin them. The Bank has always stood ready to use its convening powers or, where necessary, intervene directly in order to help ensure the smooth functioning of core sterling markets. But this has been given new impetus in recent years as initiatives such as the Open Forum and the Fair and Effective Markets Review made clear that the Bank considers scanning the horizon for emerging vulnerabilities as important as stepping in when risks have crystallised. Working to monitor and improve resilience and effectiveness is something I consider to be a core part of delivering not only monetary, but also financial stability. And I believe the Bank’s work in this area will play an important role in ensuring the UK has a resilient, effective and innovative financial system as it leaves the EU.