In particular, it considers that the economy posted healthy growth in 2018, driven by investment, an impulse that is expected to continue in 2019. Externally, growth in the main economies has shown a sharper-thanexpected deceleration, which has led its authorities to implement further economic stimulus packages. The main difference with respect to December’s baseline scenario was seen in local inflation. Measured by the benchmark Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculated by the National Statistics Institute (INE) based on the updated basket and new methodology, annual CPI variation is significantly below the forecast. This differential between forecast and actual inflation occurs in a context where activity and demand have behaved as expected, which in this Report is explained by a lower-than-expected peso depreciation pass-through, favorable supply factors in some markets and greater capacity gaps than had been estimated until now. Said gaps do not originate in weaker demand, but in the labor force effects of massive immigration to the country, an issue that the Bank has brought up in its presentations to this Commissions for some quarters now. In this context, our projections yield that the convergence of inflation to the 3% target will take almost a year longer than we estimated in December. This provides room for the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus to proceed at a slower pace than was announced before by the Board. This scenario plays out in a context of greater uncertainty in the world economy, where global financial markets remain very susceptible and more negative scenarios may occur.
8  Figure 1 Accumulated inflation, February - December 2018  Evolution of CPI and CPIEFE inflation (1) (2)  (percent)  (annual change, percent)  CPI  2.5  CPIEFE  2.5  2.0  2.0  1.5  1.5  4.5  4.0  4.0  3.5  1.0  1.0  4.5  3.0  3.0  2.5  2.5  2.0  2.0  1.5 0.5  0.5 0.0  Basket Basket 2013 2018  Basket 2013  Basket 2018  1.5  CPIEFE  1.0  0.0  3.5  CPI  1.0  0.5  0.5  0.0  0.0 18  Abr. Jul. Oct.  19  (1) As from January 2019 the lines use the new indexes with annual base 2018=100, so they are not strictly comparable with earler figures. (2) Blue (red) diamonds show the annual CPI (CPIEFE) variation using the 2013=100 basket. As from February 2018, they show the annual change that is obtained by splicing the 2013=100 basket series with the monthly variations in the 2018=100 basket. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE). Source: National Statistics Institute (INE). Figure 2 Exchange rate and goods EFE (annual change, percent)  6  30  5  25  4  20 TCN (right axis)  3  goods EFE (*)  2  15 10  1  5  0  0  -1  -5  -2  -10  -3  -15 16  16 Jul.