4/4  BIS - Central bankers' speeches
Growth in real wages has been negative for all bar three of the past 74 months. The cumulative fall in real wages since their pre-recession peak is around 10%. As best we can tell, the length and depth of this fall is unprecedented since at least the mid-1800s (Table 1). •  Productivity – GDP per hour worked – was broadly unchanged in the year to 2014 Q2, leaving it around 15% below its pre-crisis trend level. The level of productivity is no higher than it was six years ago. This is the so-called “productivity puzzle”. 1  House prices are measured using the average of the Halifax and Nationwide indices. 2  Okun’s original misery index, which was also referred to as the “discomfort factor”, comprised unemployment and inflation. 3  Adding real wealth and/or real borrowing costs to the index does not alter the underlying trends. 4  The value for 2014 is an estimate based on projections consistent with the August 2014 Inflation Report. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Productivity has not flat-lined for that long in any period since the 1880s, other than following demobilisation after the World Wars. •  Annual real interest rates – for example, rates earned by households on time deposits adjusted for consumer price inflation – are around zero. They have been near-zero for close to four years. Real deposit rates have not been that low since the 1970s, when inflation was in double digits.