BIS Review 28/2007  7  The experience of previous business cycles has shown that wage and price inflation may increase markedly in a late phase of the upturn. Higher interest rates will counter such a development. However, we must also prevent inflation from becoming entrenched well below 2.5 per cent. We will therefore be mindful of the effects of higher interest rates on the krone exchange rate when inflation is low. Positive supply-side conditions that have held down inflation so far suggest a gradual approach, so that we can assess the effects of interest rate increases and other new information on economic developments. At the meeting on 15 March, Norges Bank’s Executive Board presented the interest rate path shown in the chart. The Board decided that the key policy rate should lie in the interval 4-5 per cent in the period to the publication of the next Monetary Policy Report on 27 June, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with projections. Furthermore, the key policy rate is expected to move up to about 5 per cent around the end of 2007. Economic developments are uncertain. The uncertainty surrounding the interest rate ahead is illustrated by the shaded area in the chart, which is intended to capture the outcome with a 70 per cent probability. Long-term interest rates, income growth and house prices Favourable economic developments in Norway have had an impact on developments in our property markets. House prices have risen sharply over the past 14 years.
20  These percentages should be considered as the lower bound of the total impact of the interest rate rise, as this would also reduce agents’ income, through its negative impact on economic activity, and would curb the accumulation of wealth on account of the higher net interest burden. 13  As far as general government is concerned, the steep rise in the public debt-to-GDP ratio seen since 2007 also means that public finances are more sensitive to interest rate movements. However, the fall in interest rates of recent years has led to a continuous decline in the interest burden as a percentage of GDP, while at the same time, longer average debt maturities (currently standing at more than eight years) limit the short-term impact of higher issuance costs. Specifically, incorporating the current market expectations for rising interest rates into the Banco de España’s latest macroeconomic projections, the public debt burden would increase from 2.2% of GDP at end-2021 to 2.5% in 2024. Under this updated scenario, an additional 100 bp increase in short and long-term interest rates, with all other variables remaining constant, will further drive up interest payments by around 0.4 pp of GDP by 2024. 14  As regards the impact of rising energy prices, variations similar to those observed between the Banco de España’s December 2021 and March 2022 projections21 would have moderate average effects on the degree of financial vulnerability of firms, albeit with notable crosssector heterogeneity.