Thus, in an OECD comparison, Chile is in the lower part of this ratio’s distribution (figure 16). Although the current capital levels are sufficient to absorb a possible severe stress scenario, gaps have narrowed. While every bank’s CAR exceeds the 8-percent regulatory minimum in the stress scenario, the share of banks having a CAR above 10 percent in such a scenario has dropped in recent years, to less than half the system’s assets in the latest test (figure 17). Let me conclude with some final thoughts. Concluding thoughts In the past several months the macroeconomic scenario has brought no big surprises, but that does not mean that challenges have been absent. Inflation has dropped in line with expectations, but remains above the tolerance range. Our projections indicate that in a few more months it will return to that range to then decline towards the 3-percent target. If this is so, we will have ended quite a long period during which inflation was at or above 4 percent and monetary policy-making has been particularly complex, as we have had to deal with a significant depreciation of our currency and the ensuing rise in prices, aside from the economic slowdown. Still we have been able to keep inflation expectations over the projection horizon well anchored to the 3-percent target. In the short term, there are obvious inflationary risks, which could again push back this convergence.
Consistently with the volatility we have been seeing and the risks inherent to the international economy, our baseline scenario assumes that in the coming quarters international financial conditions will be, on average, less favorable than they were in the past two months. Our growth outlook for the world economy and our trading partners changes little from March: 3.2 and 3.0 percent, respectively, for the 2016–2017 average. Still, there is a significant revision to expected US growth: 1.9 percent in 2016 (2.3 percent in March). This estimate inputs the low output figure of the first quarter, which has to do both with the drop in energy investment and the weak external sector. In any case, aside from one-time data, services and labor indicators show a recovering trend and the baseline scenario foresees the economy resuming higher growth in 2017. It also estimates that the Chinese economy will be able to carry on with its adjustment process without seriously compromising its growth rates. But this process will not be free of difficulties. The terms of trade will drop again in 2016, although not as sharply as we assumed in the last Report, owing mainly to the evolution of non-copper export prices. Considering its trajectory of the past few months, the baseline scenario assumes that the copper price will average $ and $ per pound in 2016 and 2017, respectively. For oil, our forecast for the same two years is raised to $ and $ per barrel the Brent-WTI average (table 2).