The truth is that questions of European financial solidarity will mainly come in the post-crisis period, which I shall now address. 2.2 Initial strategic thinking on the post-crisis environment Beyond the present emergency and consensus, we must start to consider “postcrisis”. It raises some very open questions, some of which are premature. Let me begin, very simply, with what we know and what we do not know:  Page 5 of 8  We know that growth will be strongly negative in 2020, then positive in 2021. However, we do not know the numbers involved: they depend on the peak lockdown period – 1.5% of GDP is lost with every two weeks –, our ability to bounce back afterwards, and the chain of events with regard to public health and the economy in the rest of the world.  We now know that despite our initial hopes, we will not suddenly go from the current phase of general lockdown to a final phase of complete freedom of movement. Between, there will be a phase 2 of relative lockdown, which will gradually be wound down, potentially over a long period of time. However, we do not yet know how: this is where the interaction between the battle for public health and the battle for the economy will have to be optimised, and where public debate will have to bring together doctors and economists. Their opinions may converge more easily than we believe.
 Lastly, we know that we will emerge from this crisis with significantly higher levels of debt. This is clearly the case for government debt, with an increase of between ten and several dozen percentage points of GDP. But it is also the case for business debts: the longer the economic hiatus lasts, the more their problems will evolve from simple cash requirements to lasting balance sheet challenges and losses to be covered through capital increases. In financial terms, several businesses will go from facing liquidity constraints to solvency constraints. And the current cash flow problems will become stock problems. Relatively speaking, the economic agents generally least affected by this crisis are households, which experience high levels of “forced saving” during the period. Of course, this does not mean that, on a micro-economic level, some low-income households and financially vulnerable people are not already feeling the effects of lost income; and these households, which struggle to make ends meet, have no precautionary savings. *** This leads us to consider the lessons that history can teach us about recovering from crises, starting with the post-war years. This has become a particular focus of economic research today, even though, fortunately, our situation is less  Page 6 of 8 dramatic: the three "classic" themes – which give rise to so many questions – are the return to growth, debt treatment, and the proper use of monetary policy. 1/ How to support growth?