Short-term demand management through monetary policy too often led instead to accelerating inflation, and increasing external deficits, which had eventually to be brought under control through recession – an absolute recipe for short-termism in both financial and business behaviour. Equally, excessive public expenditure – which had ultimately to be financed through higher taxation – imposed burdens on the private sector which weakened its capacity to generate employment and income and wealth. So the emphasis now, more or less everywhere, is on effective price stability as the immediate objective of macro-economic policy – not simply as an end in itself but as a measure of the balance between aggregate demand and underlying supply in the economy as a whole. In effect the aim of monetary policy in particular is to moderate, rather than aggravate, the economic cycle, and so to provide the basis for sustainable growth at around the underlying rate of growth of productive, supplyside, potential. And the emphasis now – again more or less everywhere – in relation to fiscal policy is to limit public sector borrowing, and the outstanding level of public sector debt, to levels that can be sustained into the medium and longer term without the need for increasing tax burdens or the imposition of rising real interest rates on the private sector.
A problem, of course, was the persistent weakness of the Euro in foreign exchange markets, despite strong "fundamentals" in terms of conventional analysis. This was largely the result of an outflow of capital, much of it drawn into the US by the magnetic attraction of prospective corporate earnings growth – and apparently continuing despite the US slowdown. The euro's weakness gave rise to widespread – but in my view unjustified – criticism of the ECB. The task of a central bank operating an independent monetary policy is necessarily a limited task, not least because it effectively has only one instrument – its control over short-term interest rates. Its role – as I said earlier – is essentially, to use that instrument to influence aggregate demand in the economy, with the aim of keeping demand broadly in line with the supply-side capacity of the economy. The measure of its success is consistently low inflation. Against that criterion the ECB has been relatively successful. The Euro area economy has grown, above trend, with core inflation nevertheless remaining within the tolerance range of 0-2%, even though on the headline measure, influenced by rising oil prices and the weaker exchange rate, inflation has for the time being moved above the top of that range. The ECB would have put that internal stability of the Euro area as a whole at risk if it had attempted at the same time to use monetary policy to target the euro's exchange rate.