Page 11 of 18  18  19  20  21  Figure 5 Working-age population forecasts 19  19  2018  18  18  17  17  16  16  15  Millares  (million persons, 2002-2050)  15 2014  14  14  13  13  12  12  11  11 02  05  08  11  14  17  20  23  26  29  32  35  38  41  44  47  50  Source: National Statistics Institute (INE). Table 1 Trend GDP growth forecast (percent) Trend growth (*)  Contribution to non-mining GDP growth  Total GDP  Non-mining GDP  Mining GDP  TFP  Labor  Capital  3.4  3.5  2.0  1.0  0.9  1.7  2019-2028  (*) Weighted mining is 11.9% of total GDP. VAT and import duties are assumed to grow a the same rate than non-mining GDP. Source: Central Bank of Chile.
Although each case is, in some sense, unique, and international experiences are not easily transferable, its analysis provides some useful background to understand the Chilean case. The first is to confirm the exceptional nature of the Chilean experience, due to its size and speed. In addition, given the factors that motivate migration— particularly from Venezuela—one can think that it will not be reversed any time soon. Secondly, recent immigration is characterized by an average population that is more qualified, younger and with a greater labor participation than the Chilean population. Third, relative to other countries, Chile poses fewer legal impediments to enter the labor market, and unlike other migratory cases, shares the language and other cultural aspects with a majority fraction of the immigrant population. To update our trend growth estimate, we use the population projections for the period 1992-2050, published by the National Statistics Institute (INE) at the end of 2018. These reflect the significant immigration flow observed since 2015, which is expected to continue to be important in the coming years (Figure 5). This affects the projection of the labor factor and, through it, the growth capacity of the economy. The other forecasting assumptions do not undergo major changes with respect to the fiscal year of 2017, except for the updating of the Quarterly National Accounts figures and an explicit modeling of the way in which capital and total factor productivity respond to the immigration-related increase in the labor factor.