Trade was roughly in balance. The oil price has rebounded somewhat recently, but is not expected to reach the levels we saw a few years ago. Thus, the high Norwegian current account surpluses may belong to the past. Given the uncertainties related to petroleum wealth, a spending rule more cautious than the permanent income rule seems to be a reasonable strategy. Political feasibility Allow me to round off this discussion with some reflections concerning practical policy. My point is that fiscal guidelines must be politically acceptable and understandable to the wider public. Simplicity and robustness are important concerns. Rules that are not adopted by policymakers carry little value. The Norwegian fiscal rule was introduced in 2001, exactly 30 years after the first oil was extracted from the Norwegian continental shelf. This illustrates that it was not straightforward to arrive at a strategy for how our natural resource wealth was going to be spent. The need to decouple current spending from current revenues was underscored early on, and potential mechanisms were discussed, but these concerns were not reflected in actual policy. In periods, all the oil and gas revenues and more were spent. The fund mechanism was established in 1990, during Norway’s deepest recession in the postwar period. At the time, it was not obvious that the fund would gain much value. The government ran budget deficits in the following years. A first deposit was made in 1996, reflecting a net fiscal surplus. From then on, the value of the fund started to increase quite rapidly.
Against this background of low profitability, banks have already made significant efforts to reduce their operating expenses, by adjusting their productive capacity. The number of banking groups has been reduced by 44% since 2007. And, from their peak levels in 2008, 3/7  the number of offices and employees in the banking industry have been reduced by 37% and by 31%, respectively. Orderly correction of the excess capacity in the Spanish banking industry has raised its level of efficiency relative to the banking systems of other European countries. However there is still room for further improvement. 2 New technologies - FinTech The second challenge facing traditional banking activity arises from the development of new technologies and entry into the banking market of so-called FinTech companies. Banks are sometimes presented as rigid, inefficient institutions, in contrast to new agile unregulated businesses, which seek to offer a better service to customers through a broad range of innovations. An extreme view is that these businesses could actually displace credit institutions from the provision of traditional financial services. In my opinion this is a simplistic, distorted view of a much more complex reality. Certainly we are facing a major technological transformation of banking activity. Permanent connectivity and the sheer number of mobile devices affect the way in which financial services are provided and used. Users increasingly demand the ability to access their current accounts and to initiate transactions at all times and in all places.