Would two loans of £ each to the same customer represent a higher level of activity than one loan of £ Methods for measuring FISIM at constant prices are based on conventions. In the UK, real FISIM is calculated by applying the base-year interest margins to an appropriate volume indicator of loans and deposits. The latter is estimated by deflating the corresponding stocks of loans and deposits using the GDP deflator. This method means that any volatility in the current price measure of FISIM caused by changes in interest margins does not feed into the real measure. (c)  Refining the measurement of FISIM  While the introduction of FISIM into the national accounts was an important step forward, it is not difficult to construct scenarios where the contribution of the financial sector to the economy could be mis-measured under this approach. A key issue is the extent to which bearing risk should be measured as a productive service provided by the banking system. (i)  Adjusting FISIM for risk  Under current FISIM guidelines, which use risk-free policy rates to measure the reference rate, banks’ compensation for bearing risk constitutes part of their measured nominal output. 2  4  1993 System of National Accounts, paragraph 6.128: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/sna1993/toctop2.asp. BIS Review 95/2010  This can lead to some surprising outcomes. For example, assume there is an economy-wide increase in the expected level of defaults on loans or in liquidity risk, as occurred in October 2008.
All in all, developments in the krona have largely been in line with our forecast in the June Inflation Report. So the appreciation of the krona so far is in line with previous forecasts. Should the krona continue to strengthen - and particularly if there is also reason to believe that the appreciation will last - it will of course have implications for our forecast. However, it is currently too soon to come to any real conclusions for inflation in the near future from the perspective that is significant for monetary policy. What these developments have mainly illustrated so far is perhaps how greatly exchange rates can fluctuate and how unexpectedly quick changes in sentiment can be. Developments in the fixed income market have been less dramatic. However, the long-term yield spread on Germany widened slightly in connection with the referendum. In all probability, the current yield spread is partly due to recently better growth prospects in Sweden than in the euro area. It is also reasonable to expect that we will have to pay a certain premium in the form of a differential between Swedish and German long yields for remaining outside the single currency. We can illustrate this by comparing the yield spread in, for instance, Sweden, Finland and Italy (see Chart 1). Swedish long yields are higher than Finland's, whose situation in terms of growth and government finances has been roughly in line with our own. Our yields are also higher compared with Italy, despite their markedly weaker public finances.