Nevertheless, even though these rules are not currently binding, any deviations that are not caused by a poor economic performance should be avoided, to minimise the possible negative repercussions for budget outturn credibility. Regarding the unemployment rate, the macroeconomic forecast contained in the Draft Budget expects it to reach 17.1% of the labour force in 2020 overall. This forecast, which is at the lower limit of the range defined in the Banco de España’s two scenarios published in September – between 17.1% and 18.6% – would, in my view, be subject to certain upside risks. Nevertheless, the most significant difference between the two sets of projections relates to the unemployment rate in 2021. Thus, while the macroeconomic forecast contained in the Draft Budget expects the unemployment rate to fall by 0.8 pp to 16.3%, under both the Banco de España’s projection scenarios it is expected to increase, by 2.3 pp under scenario 1 and 3.5 pp under scenario 2. It is important to note that these quite considerable differences cannot be explained solely by the fact that the Banco de España’s scenarios do not include the effects of the NGEU programme, because taking the Government’s estimates as reference, the implementation of that programme would entail a drop in the unemployment rate of 0.6 pp between 2020 and 2021. I will return to this question later.
The latter are primarily aimed at ensuring the maintenance of systemically important functions and the orderly resolution of the residual bank, and are therefore important in a “gone concern” perspective. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Increasing the credibility of model-based risk-weighted assets Increasing the credibility of risk-weighted assets (RWA) based on banks’ internal models remains an important goal. As discussed in the 2013 Financial Stability Report, model-based RWA are being called into question by market participants, analysts and authorities worldwide. This is particularly significant as RWA are at the heart of the capital regulations for banks. It is widely accepted that a bank’s risks can, in principle, be more accurately quantified using the model-based approach than using the standardised approach. Yet banks’ internal models are highly complex and can vary widely between institutions, thus making it difficult to accurately assess a bank’s resilience and compare one bank with another. The SNB welcomes the efforts by the Swiss big banks to increase transparency with regard to their risks. For example, both institutions recently started to disclose changes in their RWA, broken down by cause. Of particular interest is the proportion of the reduction in RWA which is attributable to model adjustments. In addition, Credit Suisse has been publishing a statistical measure of total loss potential for some time now, and UBS recently started to publish a statistical measure of loss potential by business division and a scenario-based post-stress capital ratio. The SNB encourages the big banks to further increase transparency with regard to their risks.