In addition, we reduced the annual commission rate of 0.02 basis points that had been applied since 1 February 2015 on euro-denominated accounts of banks and financing companies at the CBRT to a yearly 0.005 basis points as of 1 July 2015, and abolished it as of 27 July 2015 due to the recent developments in the euro area. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Thanks to the tight monetary policy stance and the macroprudential measures, loan growth continues to stay at reasonable levels. Adjusted for exchange rate changes, loans provided to the non-financial sector increased modestly by 18.1 percent year-on-year in the second quarter of 2015. A comparison of consumer and commercial loans shows that commercial loans continue to grow more at a higher rate than consumer loans, partly due to BRSA regulations. The annualized growth rate of commercial loans dropped to 15.1 percent at the end of the second quarter of 2015, whereas this rate was 21.6 percent for exchange rateadjusted commercial loans. Likewise, comparing their growth trend to averages in past years, commercial loans are close to the average whereas consumer loans are significantly below the average (Charts 10 and 11). Due to the moderate economic activity and the recent tightening in financial conditions, loan growth is likely to slow somewhat in the forthcoming period. 2. Macroeconomic developments and main assumptions  Now, I will talk about the macroeconomic outlook and our assumptions on which our forecasts are based.
My current estimate for r-star is 0.5 percent, so when you adjust for inflation that’s near 2 percent, the current federal funds rate of 2.4 percent puts us right at neutral. What Does the Future Hold? So what does the future hold? With a strong labor market, moderate growth, and no sign of any significant inflationary pressures, the baseline outlook is quite favorable, as I’ve said. Of course, there are a number of different scenarios that could play out over the year ahead. Geopolitical uncertainty and other factors holding back growth may recede, and the U.S. economy could resume the robust trajectory of last year. Or GDP growth could continue closer to trend, which is my own forecast. Finally, there’s always a chance that downside risks could knock GDP growth off course. What will the response of the Fed be? My short answer: It depends! I promised talk of interest rates, and here it is. I’ve said it before, and no doubt, I’ll say it as long as I work for a central bank. But in the current conditions the phrase takes on even more importance. Our response will always be “data dependent.” When growth is well above trend, raising interest rates to keep the economy on a sustainable path is the right decision. Equally, when faced with a crisis like the Great Recession, it’s incumbent upon policy makers to use every tool at their disposal to get the economy back on course.