We have previously managed to agree on interest rate messages with information on our future intentions when we have commented on the plausibility of the interest rate path given by market expectations. There are also some other problems that have been put forward as arguments against central banks publishing their own interest rate forecasts. One such argument is that it makes communication with the general public more difficult. If the central bank first announces a particular interest rate path and then new information is received, which leads to a policy rate decision that differs from the path published earlier, this could be perceived as a failure on the part of the central bank and it could damage the bank’s credibility. 11 Personally, I do not believe that this will be a major problem. On the contrary, one of the main points of publishing one’s own interest rate path is that it should improve communication with the general public. We have always carefully emphasised that there is considerable uncertainty in the assessments and explained that new information may come in later which could radically change the conditions for our monetary policy assessments. 12 To emphasise this even more strongly, it is important to illustrate the uncertainty in different ways, for instance by calculating the uncertainty interval around the interest rate path. This we intend to do.
carry trade) and instead incentivize them to focus on their core activities. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches