For the first time, big techs may now be touching on the limits of their core business models, and might seek further diversification, as financial activities already account for around 11% of their revenuesvi. So the question is: will this breakthrough in finance happen at all? Time will tell, but in my view, disintermediation by big techs remains a plausible scenario. The massive and prosperous tech firms can learn from their difficulties and enter into the space of banking and finance. This raises the question of the conditions under which big techs could broaden their reach. 2/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  II. Maturity and consistency years ahead? In a bildungsroman, the early and learning years are eventually followed by the maturity years, which hopefully coincide with greater consistency. In this particular case, big techs are not the only ones to mature as time and digital innovation proceed: financial institutions and supervisors must also mature and modernize. The regulatory environment has to stay up-to-date and preserve financial stability, without bringing the technological revolution to a halt. While the sound principle "same activity, same risk, same regulatory outcome" remains fully valid, several international institutions – including the BIS and the IMF – have recently called for a "hybrid approach"vii: home supervisors should implement an entity-based approach that would encompass all big tech's activities and risks, and host supervisors should implement an activity-based approach. It opens up interesting perspectives, although it can only be carried out in the medium-term due to the regulatory evolutions it implies.
I very much doubt it given the usual time lags observed in the diffusion of past technologies and the differences in productivity levels between firms. The second type of lag, space-lags, refers to the uneven diffusion of technology across firms. Frontier firms usually enjoy stronger rates of productivity growth than imitators in the same sector. In France, the productivity growth of frontier firms has remained steady – or even increased – throughout the slowdown [slide 7]. This may reflect winner-takes-all phenomena. For example, in the digital economy, due to network externalities, one firm with a marginal comparative advantage can seize the whole market and benefit from the low marginal cost of production of additional units of its product. However, these phenomena may be specific to ICT-producing sectors. Productivity growth in frontier firms mostly reflects the actual pace of technological advance and supports techno-optimists views. I’ve shared with you a few thoughts on these three promising hypotheses. To conclude, let me share with you what I see as priorities in order to exit the low growth trap and prevent the risk of secular stagnation. We must obviously accelerate domestic reforms in order to foster innovation and an entrepreneurial spirit. But at the European level, we need to tackle the persistent “investment crunch” which followed the financial crisis. Thus, we first need a “Financing and Investment Union” in Europe to steer abundant savings into investment and provide adequate financing for innovation.