A tale of two workers So which of the twin-peaked outcomes facing the economy is most likely? An imminent burst of macro-economic sunshine? Or leaden-grey skies as far as the eye can see? Several factors have been put forward to support the secular stagnation hypothesis. They include rising levels of inequality, worsening levels of educational attainment, a rising debt overhang, lower prices for investment goods, rising levels of youth unemployment and lower levels of innovation (Gordon (2012), VoxEU (2014)). None should be dismissed lightly. But nor do these factors necessarily contradict the possibility of recovery in at least some parts of the economy. It is entirely possible that both poles may be in play – if you like, sunshine with showers – pulling the economy in opposing directions. Those polarising forces are well illustrated by developments in the labour market. Polarisation in the labour market has been a phenomenon since at least the 1980s, with a “hollowing out” of employment across the skill-distribution (Goos and Manning (2007) Goos et al (2009), Autor et al (2003, 2006, 2010), Sissons (2011), McIntosh (2013), Plunkett and Pessoa (2013)). Employment growth has been strongest among the highest and lowestskilled. But the casualty has been the mid-skilled, where employment has fallen. This structural shift is usually attributed to technological displacement of mid-skill jobs – for example, because of the automation and digitisation of certain tasks. For that reason, a “smiley face” employment pattern has been found across a wide number of countries when looked at in skills space.
Those distributional differences have, however, persisted and have if anything widened further. Despite having fallen by almost 10% since the crisis, real wages among the top 10% are still over 20% higher than in 1997. But wages for the bottom 20% have fallen by almost 20% since 2007 and are essentially back to where they were in 1997. These polarising forces in the labour market are also evident across industries (Chart 17). BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Between 2001 and 2007, median annual wage growth across industries was 4% with a standard deviation of 1 percentage point. During 2014, average real wage growth has averaged 1% with a standard deviation of 2.5 percentage points (Chart 18). Wage dispersion has risen markedly. In some sectors wages are growing faster than before the crisis, while in others they are falling in both real and nominal terms. So while strong employment demand has helped sustain wages among the highly-skilled, it has not worked the same magic for the lower skilled. That begs the question – why? The most likely explanation is that rising demand has been more than offset by the rise in the supply of labour for these services. Several factors are likely to have been at play. First, displaced mid-skilled workers may have sought jobs for which they are over-qualified in order to stay in employment. In other words, they have moved down the skill distribution, placing downward pressure on wages. The crisis is likely to have reinforced these trends.