For a while, modern macroeconomics tried to get around this more or less intractable situation by picking just one out of a wide set of stories, often treating it as if it were immutable in time and space. And when reality deviated from that story for an extended period, it opportunistically explained it away as bad luck in the form of a series of unpredictable adverse shocks. A persistent challenge for inflation-targeting central banks is the phenomenon of inflation itself. We recognise that the CPI or some similar inflation measure, which lies at the heart of this monetary policy framework, may not be an ideal representation of what is meant by inflation in traditional monetary theory. Personally, I still adhere to the monetarist definition that inflation means a steady and continuous rise in the price level, that is, a situation where different price categories and nominal variables generally show a similar trend. CPI inflation does not quite fit this definition, and it is not always desirable to regard its short-term fluctuations as genuine inflation or deflation. This is partly because CPI inflation tends to change quite frequently as a result of shocks of a non-macroeconomic and non-monetary nature. If the central bank were to try to slavishly keep CPI inflation at a certain target level at all times, it would have to change interest rates or other instruments frequently and significantly, and would probably not be successful in doing so.
For the next year, we are more optimistic, and in our projections we expect credit growth of up to 9 percent. In July, the National Bank of the Republic of Macedonia made changes in the reserve requirement and also reduced the key interest rate to 3.25 percent, which is the historically lowest level. When do you expect the effects? We made some changes, so that we reduced the reserve requirement ratio for denar deposits and we increased that for the foreign currency deposits. Our goal is to stimulate denar saving at the expense of the saving in foreign currency, which in this way will become more expensive, while saving in denars will become cheaper. Shortly after that, we reduced the key interest rate to 3.25 percent, thus sending a signal to the banks that there is room for greater lending activity. Even that small amount of loans does not go to the companies, but mainly to the citizens. Why is that so and when will it change? In 2009, soon after the outbreak of the global economic crisis, banks here immediately stopped lending to households, while they continued to lend to companies. It allowed banks to clean the loan portfolio of the households, i.e. to eliminate the bad loans in the meantime. Therefore, now they have room to re-start lending to the households, and they are doing it. The process of cleaning the credit portfolios of the companies, however, was left out at that point, so it began more intensively last year, and continued this year.