This, together with the difficulties of the latest round of budget and debt‐limit negotiations, shifted the consensus to postpone the expected date of the beginning of tapering. Recent figures indicating a recovery of employment in October stronger than expected have led some to bring forward again their forecasted date of tapering. Developments in coming weeks will be crucial to assess whether recent data mark a change in tendency or a temporary phenomenon. The question of how the reversal will occur is the hardest to answer. If everything goes as planned, the withdrawal of the monetary stimulus would be gradual and related to improved economic conditions in the US. But, the significant reaction of markets to the announcement  4  A few papers trying to quantify the impact of various macroprudential policies include Lim et al. (2011) and Tovar et al. (2012). 5  See for instance the article by Rey (2013) and the presentation by Smets (2013) at Jackson Hole. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  of the possibility of reducing the speed of purchases, gives us some reason to worry about the ability of authorities to guarantee a smooth transition to a scenario of normal monetary conditions. Financial markets are large, and even the Federal Reserve may have some transitory trouble taming them.
In Switzerland, this means that as long as the economic recovery remains on track, we should not postpone for too long the process of normalising monetary conditions. Otherwise, we would put medium term price stability at risk. 1/1