TCW index and expected growth difference against other countries 1.5 1.0  140 Sweden - TCW countries difference expectations/growth  135  TCW index  0.5  130  0.0  125  -0.5  120  -1.0  115  -1.5 110 Mar-96 Nov-96 Jul-97 Mar-98 Nov-98 Jul-99 Mar-00 Nov-00 Jul-01 Sources: Consensus Forecast and The Riksbank  In the more recent discussion in the media and on the markets, attention has focused on more specific flows. This discussion is not always completely accurate. One reason for this is that it is not the individual flows, but rather the complete picture including all of the flows, various currency strategies, etc. that determines developments. We have little knowledge of the extent to which the players in the economy take exchange rate positions when they buy and sell various types of securities. We know from financial theory that large fluctuations in financial prices can often occur without any connection to large flows. Concern about the government finances can hardly have been a crucial factor in the latter 1990s. Neither is it probable that the short-term interest rate differential played a sizeable part, though an effect at times cannot be ruled out. In the more recent discussion, attention has focused on more specific flows. There were periods last year, for example, when the paths of the Stockholm stock exchange and the Swedish krona were rather closely related. It looks as if the krona tended to fall when foreign investors quit the market.
One possibility I consider worth testing would be to wait for some months before the Board evaluates the measures comprehensively and publishes more detailed minutes. This, in any event, is a matter to which the Board intends to return later this autumn with the aim of establishing a procedure for preparing these matters and providing information about them in ways that are appropriate to the current exchange rate regime. At the same time, it should be underscored that the arrangements we lay down will not be set in concrete. There must be some latitude for unforeseen circumstances. It is worth mentioning that when the Executive Board came into being in January 1999 and chose to work with public minutes, the interval before they were published was comparatively long, 6 to 8 weeks. Since then it has proved possible to reduce the lag to only a fortnight without giving rise to serious detrimental effects. Conclusion The main message in my address today has been that in the current monetary policy regime the exchange rate ought to be regarded mainly as one of a number of forecast variables. The problem here is that, like other currencies, the Swedish krona is difficult to forecast in the time perspective that is relevant for monetary policy, namely a couple of years ahead. The situation is complicated, moreover, in that the exchange rate is a variable that in certain situations monetary policy can conceivably affect directly. We try to use all the available information in order to arrive at our forecast.