In the present scenario, pressures on the current account are being reinforced by the steady upward trend in international oil prices. Markets often view wide current account deficits as a sign of vulnerability, thereby fuelling volatility in capital flows. So far, a number of NMS with a flexible currency arrangement have managed such volatility through exchange rate flexibility, a tool which might, however, be progressively lost in the run-up to the adoption of the euro. Developments in financial intermediation may also pose significant challenges in this regard. Thus far there has been a tendency for credit to be relatively low compared to economic activity in NMS, as banks, which are largely foreign-owned in a number of these countries, have been generally averse to advancing a significant amount of credit to enterprises, although tending to step up lending to households. 7 This implies the possibility that with a further internationalisation of the financial sector on account of the introduction of the euro, there could be a more rapid credit expansion through bank borrowing from abroad, with the attendant dangers of overheating and the formation of asset price bubbles. 4  Schadler et al (2005)  5  Begg et al (2003)  6  For example Cipriani (2000), Kovacs (2002) and Mihaljek and Klau (2003)  7  Schadler et al (2005)  2  BIS Review 53/2006  These considerations have important implications for the maintenance of financial stability in the NMS.
In this regard, the challenge would seem to be to strike a balance between, on the one hand, ensuring transparency and a level playing field and, on the other, giving due weight to the track record of economic policy and performance in the NMS, as well as to the implications for these  8  Schadler et al (2005)  BIS Review 53/2006  3  countries, and indeed for the euro-area as a whole, of an unduly rigid interpretation of the provisions of the Treaty. The application of the Maastricht criteria In making this point I am clearly not suggesting, as some academics have done, that the Maastricht criteria are “neither necessary, nor sufficient”. On the other hand, there are some aspects of the criteria that could legitimately be the subject of reflection. The calculation of the reference value of the inflation criterion is a case in point. Over the past few years there has been a debate about how one should define “best performance” in relation to inflation and also about the term “outlier”. And even about why countries outside the euro area should be included among the best performing countries. This debate appears to have resurfaced again during the preparatory phase of the current ECB Convergence Report. Another, and currently very topical aspect that also has ‘level playing field’ connotations is the impact of the ongoing spike in the international oil price.