Observations  14 6 8  χ2 statistic  Average magnitude of rate 'surprise' (bp)  Average of 'surprise' variable (bp) Difference IR months Other months  Reuters measure: 1998-2000 2001-present Difference  30 50  11 7.6 -3.3**  Reuters measure Whole period 1998-2000 2001-present  10.6 12.6 9.5  7.9 10.0 6.6  +2.7* +2.6 +2.8  LIBOR measure: 1997-2000 2001-present Difference  43 50  5.4 3.6 -1.8*  LIBOR measure Whole period 1997-2000 2001-present  5.9 5.5 6.3  3.7 5.3 2.2  +2.3** +0.2 +4.0**  E. Market reactions in Inflation Report months  Average magnitude of 'surprise' / market reaction (bp)  LIBOR measure: Whole period 1997-2000 2001-present Difference  Policy decision  Inflation Report publication  MPC minutes publication  5.9 5.5 6.3 0.7  3.0 3.4 2.7 -0.8  2.8 2.4 3.1 0.7  Difference between Difference between reaction to policy reaction to policy decision and IR decision and MPC publication minutes publication  +2.9** +2.1 +3.6**  +3.1** +3.1** +3.2**  Observations  31 14 17  Notes: Tests are for significance based on t-test for difference between two sample means, except for Panel (A) and (B), which is a test for whether rate changes are distributed 1/3 in IR months and 2/3 in other months. The critical values for Panel (A) and (B) are derived from on Monte Carlo simulations. Excludes the special MPC meeting following 11 September 2001.
χ2 statistic  Expected rate changes IR months non-IR months  4.41** 0.13 7.54***  Whole period 1997-2000 2001-present  8 5 3  9.09*** 2.23 7.68***  D. Are interest rate surprises larger in Inflation Report months? C. Are interest rate surprises getting smaller?