The baht has been depreciating since late April, reducing the year-to-date appreciation against the dollar to about 3 percent. The correction is also evidence that under flexible exchange rate regime, unwarranted overshooting inevitably will be corrected by market forces. The fact is that although the exchange rate is not the BOT’s main policy tool, or an intermediate policy target, it is an integral part of our macroeconomic analysis and policy deliberation. Beyond aggregate statistics, it is also recognized that sharp exchange rate volatility can have significant impact on small businesses with less capacity to adjust. Thus, while exchange rate is allowed to play an active automatic stabilizing role under current framework, the MPC constantly monitors the impact of baht movements on the overall economy. To supplement this baseline analysis, the BOT staff also conducts projections under different degrees of baht appreciation. In a recent joint forecast exercise with the Ministry of Finance and the Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), the BOT’s estimate of growth impact of baht appreciation in fact proved to be the largest among the three, testifying to our conservatism. In broad terms, however, the three agencies’ analyses agree that baht appreciation alone should not derail the underlying momentum of the economy. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  The MPC continues to be prudent, and vigilant about the potential adverse impact of extreme exchange rate volatility.
The committee recognizes that, in the current environment where growth prospects differ wildly across regions and monetary policy in advanced economies remains ultra-loose, pressure from capital inflows may persist in the medium term. All available policy options are therefore open to considerations. Substantial preparation work has been ongoing to ensure that the right measures can be readily implemented should the situation warrant. Investors seeking long-term presence in Thailand should be reassured that productive capital inflows are still highly valued, and any introduction of measures will be carefully designed to minimize unintended consequences. After all, the goals of these measures are to preserve the financial and economic integrity, the very reason that attracts investors to Thailand in the first place. Structural Impediments Ladies and gentlemen, Macroeconomic stabilization and demand management policy can only get us so far. The ultimate determinants of long-term growth are tied to the supply side of the economy, namely the deployment of effective capital and labour inputs. It is a pity that the supply-side issues are often overlooked in policy discussion, and action is often limited to structural ‘reform’ that comes too late. By addressing the structural issues early and preemptively, the long-run growth benefits are likely to be more substantial. So let me venture out of my familiar territory, and devote the rest of my talk to discuss one key structural issue facing the Thai economy – the labour shortage. Unemployment is persistently low in Thailand, and is not very sensitive to the business cycles.