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Forecasts of UND1X at different times and actual outcome Annual percentage change  4  4  UND1X, outcome Inflation Report 2004:4 Inflation Report 2003:1 Inflation Report 2002:1  3  3  2  2  1  1  0 2000  0 2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  2. Productivity growth in the business sector since 1980 and HP trend Annual percentage change 8  8 Business sector Forecast HP-trend  7 6  7 6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2  -3 -4 1981  1981-1990: 1.7%  1984  1987  1991-1994: 2.8%  1990  1993  1995-2000: 3.2%  1996  1999  -3  2001-2004: 3.0%  2002  -4 2005  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  BIS Review 18/2005  7  3. Forecasts of CPI inflation in 2004 at various times: the Riksbank and an average of other forecasters Annual average  3.0  3.0  Riksbank Average of other forecasters Outcome (0.5) Lowest forecast Highest forecast  2.5  2.5  2.0  2.0  1.5  1.5  1.0  1.0  0.5  0.5  0.0 Dec-02  Jun-03  Dec-03  0.0 Dec-04  Jun-04  Sources: Consensus Inc., Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  4.