Normally, this will lead to an appreciation of the krone, with a further reduction in earnings and employment. Manufacturing will, therefore, feel the effects of excessively high wage growth to an even greater extent than earlier. At present, the labour market is relatively tight, which is reflected in high wage growth. In other countries, the situation is different, with sluggish economic development and declining inflation. As a result, interest rates are higher in Norway than in other countries. According to the guideline for fiscal policy, the use of petroleum revenues will increase every year for a number of years ahead. This will sustain the demand for labour. The service industries will need more resources. The contest for labour resources will intensify. To contain inflation, monetary policy must probably be fairly tight in the years ahead. Since 1997, labour costs have increased by between 5 and 7 per cent per year. Nevertheless, the increase in consumer prices has been about 2½ per cent the last couple of years. The krone exchange rate has appreciated since the summer of 2000 as a result of a wider interest rate differential between Norway and other countries. Combined with low growth abroad and increased trade with low-cost countries such as China, this has led to a slower rise in import prices. A higher rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services reflects an increase in labour costs in Norway. As the world economy recovers, import price inflation will probably edge up.
Peter Pang: Managing capital flows – the search for a framework Welcoming address by Mr Peter Pang, Deputy Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, at the Asian Development Bank Institute and Bank for International Settlements Joint Seminar for the book launch on “Managing Capital Flows: the Search for a Framework”, Hong Kong, 21 April 2011. *  *  *  Good morning, Ladies and Gentlemen. 1. Let me thank Mr Kawai for inviting me to this event. It’s my honour to welcome you to this joint seminar by the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to mark the launch of the new book, “Managing Capital Flows: the Search for a Framework”. This is a topical issue right at the centre of attention of policymakers in this region. And as the title suggests, it is also a subject that we are still in search for an answer. 2. There is an old Chinese proverb saying that “water can keep a boat afloat but it can also capsize the vessel”. This suitably characterises the nature of international capital flows – it brings both benefits and risks to the development process in Asia. Capital inflows have been playing a key role in the economic development of the region – funding investments and bringing along technology and skill transfers. These were conducive to the emergence of the “four Asian Tigers” in the 1980s, and the rapid modernisation process of China, India and other Asian economies.