100 Riksbank NIER Consensus Time series model (AR(1)) 80  60  40  20  0 50  60  70  80  90  Sources: Statistics Sweden, the National Institute of Economic Research, Consensus Forecasts and the Riksbank  12  BIS Review 138/2007  Figure 12. Ranking for the CPI following year per cent Note. The Y-axis shows how large a percentage of times analysts have been better than the percentage of analysts as illustrated in the X-axis. In order to see how large a proportion of times the Riksbank has been better than 50 per cent of other analysts, see 50 on the X-axis, then study the red column on the Y-axis. 100  Riksbank NIER Consensus Time series model (AR(1))  80  60  40  20  0 50  60  70  80  90  Sources: Statistics Sweden, the National Institute of Economic Research, Consensus Forecasts and the Riksbank  Figure 13. The CPIX with uncertainty band Annual percentage change 4  4  90% 75% 50% UND1X  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1 dec-02  -1 dec-03  dec-04  dec-05  dec-06  dec-07  dec-08  dec-09  dec-10  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  BIS Review 138/2007  13  Figure 14.
Forecasting memory, GDP Percentage points 0,5 Riksbank Time series model (AR(1)) Standard deviation 0,4  0,3  0,2  0,1  0,0 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  Kvartal  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  BIS Review 138/2007  9  Figure 6. Forecasting memory, employment Percentage points 0,5  0,4  0,3  0,2 Riksbank Time series model (AR(1)) Standard deviation 0,1  0,0 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  Kvartal  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Figure 7. Forecasting memory, productivity Percentage points 0,7  Riksbank Time series model (AR(1)) Standard deviation  0,6  0,5  0,4  0,3  0,2  0,1  0,0 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  Kvartal  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  10  BIS Review 138/2007  Figure 8. Forecasting memory for the KPIX Percentage points 0,7  0,6  0,5  0,4  0,3  0,2 Riksbank Time series model (AR(1) with seasonal dummies)  0,1  Standard deviation 0,0 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  Kvartal8  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Figure 9.