There is no doubt that this global crisis will affect Chile, and it will do so through various channels. Firstly, regarding the effects from abroad, it will cause a considerable drop in trade flows. This year, the world economy is projected to suffer a recession, combining drops in activity in the developed world with weak expansion in China. In this scenario, it is worth mentioning a contraction in the United States, where 2  preliminary labor market figures point to a major impact on the economy. In the Eurozone, the already low dynamism of its main economies (i.e. Germany, France, and Italy) and an already complex banking system situation, pose major challenges for stimulus policies. China will grow this year by 3%, its lowest since 1990, with important repercussions in the rest of the world, both because of its integration in the value chains and because of its weight in the trade of some countries, including Chile. The impact on trade is compounded by the negative impact on income as a result of falling commodity prices (Figure 4). Especially relevant for Chile is the drop in the copper price, which approached USD 2 per pound during March, and the forecast for this year is an average of USD 2.15 per pound. This negative effect will be largely offset by the lower oil price, which dropped to levels between USD 20 to 30 per barrel in March. Hence, the terms of trade deterioration should be less than 1% in 2020.
22 I am sure that the forum today will be a good occasion to exchange views and to gather new insights. 4/4  BIS central bankers' speeches