In any case, 2021 will not be able to make up for all of the downturn in 2020. I think the shape of the recovery will be somewhere between a V and a U, but we have to remember that everything will depend on the length of the economic shutdown imposed by the fight against the pandemic. Governments are implementing active fiscal policies to stop the crisis getting worse. In Spain, business associations are complaining that the tax payment schedule has remained the same, which could lead to liquidity problems. They are calling for tax deferrals and even exemptions. What is your opinion? First of all, it’s important to remember that the basis for the recovery will depend on successfully protecting the economy’s productive capacity. If this is achieved, economic activity will rebound more strongly. To answer your question: first you have to consider that firms will see a drastic fall in their revenue, so it’s essential that they receive relief from their tax burden. The State’s tax receipts will also fall dramatically. It’s important to come up with temporary plans to help firms, as has been done in the area of employment with the temporary layoffs [in Spanish: expedientes de regulación temporal, or ERTEs]. What is your opinion on the public loan guarantee programmes to enable the banking sector to finance firms with credit lines and loans? They are very important, of course. All countries have put in place loan guarantees for firms. This is a good thing.
Some are also calling for a government of national unity… I am simply suggesting that joint action by consensus would be the best approach to take for the Spanish economy. It is up to the elected representatives to decide on whether or not the best approach, within a framework of understanding, is to make an explicit pact or establish a certain type of government. What conditions are required to reach an understanding of this nature? I think the important thing is to establish a framework of mutual trust and loyalty between the government and the opposition; and that is a two-way street. Banks are in a difficult position: at a time when they still have not restored their business models after years of low interest rates, the current scenario has again been prolonged indefinitely. How do you think this will affect the sector? 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  The banking sector is facing this situation from a much more robust position than ten years ago. It is true that it has profitability issues and the deep recession will affect its bottom line. But there are no solvency problems. The financial markets experienced some problems during the initial days of this crisis, but they were not caused by the banking sector. The situation has to a certain extent returned to normal, although not completely, while prices have partially recovered and volatility has eased.