Caleb M Fundanga: Promoting financial inclusiveness Opening remarks by Dr Caleb M Fundanga, Governor of the Bank of Zambia, to the second AFRACA Central Banks’ Forum, Livingstone, 23-25 September 2008. * • • • • • • • • • • • • •  *  *  The Guest of honour; Honourable Ng’andu P. Magande, MP Minister of Finance and National Planning; Your Worship the Mayor, Mrs Grace Shafik; Provincial Minister, Hon Daniel Munkombwe; Permanent Secretary, Southern Province, Mr Darius Hakayobe; Deputy Governor-Operations, Dr Denny Kalyalya; Chairperson; The Secretary General of the African Rural and Agricultural Credit Association (AFRACA), Mrs Mary Nandazi; Co-operating partners; Distinguished invited guests from Central Banks; Resource Persons; Chief Executive Officers of Banks and Non bank financial institutions; Distinguished invited guests; Ladies and gentlemen;  On behalf of the Bank of Zambia and indeed on my own behalf, I would like to extend a very warm welcome to you all to this important African Rural and Agricultural Credit Association (AFRACA) Conference. To our colleagues from outside Zambia, I wish to extend a special welcome to you to Zambia, in particular to Livingstone, our tourist capital. Like the rest of Zambia, Livingstone is a city of tranquility with an easy-going African charm. The city is not short of interesting sites and places to visit. It hosts the Victoria Falls, also known among the locals as “Mosi-o-Tunya, the Smoke that Thunders” and is one of the world’s seven natural wonders!
But our approach to those forecasts has evolved as we have gradually oriented ourselves in the new economic territory we have found ourselves in. In our first Monetary Policy Report (MPR) following the outbreak of the pandemic, published in May 2020 (shown in orange), the impact of Covid was still so uncertain that we felt unable to publish a single central forecast. Instead what we published was a “plausible illustrative economic scenario”, together with estimates of the sensitivity of the economy to some key variables. The scenario and accompanying estimates were nothing like our usual detailed map of the outlook. But they served as an initial outline of what a future map might look like. As time passed, and as Figure 1 illustrates, we began to fill in the picture. By August 2020 (shown in grey) we felt able to publish a forecast once more; but it was a forecast that came with a higher-than-usual degree of uncertainty and a larger-than-usual downside skew, as captured in our published fan charts. By November (yellow) some of those downside risks had crystallised, in the form of a new rise in Covid cases and an associated increase in restrictions. And while by February 2021 (dark blue) the vaccination programme had begun, it was too early to be certain about how successful it would be, and the risks remained to the downside.