Those with long memories know we have achieved low inflation and steady growth before - though never for so long - only to see them slip away. They ask: what’s to prevent that happening again? A lot has changed in the past fifteen years. We now have an approach to setting interest rates which provides much better incentives for policy makers to take the right decisions. This - and the strong track record built up over the past decade - has stabilised expectations, with the result that it takes more to throw inflation off course. This is crucial insurance against the risks of a more turbulent decade ahead. A trickier issue - and one on which I want to spend some time tonight - is the vexed question of information. Statisticians get an even worse press than economists. But they are indispensable. Just as well run businesses need good management information, so successful monetary policy depends on having good information about the economy. The statistical fog surrounding the true state of the economy has proved a particularly potent breeding ground for policy errors in the past. Are we yet in sight of a clearer view? The policy framework But let me start first with the policy framework: what grounds are there for being confident that it provides the right incentives for policy makers to take good decisions?
Or as Joseph Schumpeter put it in 1934: “He (the banker) stands between those who wish to form new combinations and the possessors of productive means… He is the ephor (the overseer) of the exchange economy.”10 In fact, all the elements that have been identified in the finance and economics literature as the key functions of the financial sector are eventually directed towards the support of the real economy:   providing information about investment projects and allocating capital;    monitoring investments and exerting corporate governance after providing finance;    facilitating trading, diversification and management of risk;    and mobilizing and pooling savings.11  In providing these services, the financial industry plays its role to contribute to sustainable economic growth. I would argue that, during the recent years, the financial sector has lost focus in playing this role. In a period characterized   by search-for-yield with inadequate risk assessment and pricing,    by weak underwriting standards,    by inadequate risk management practices,    by fragile short-term funding of long-term assets,    by a proliferation of opaque financial products,    and by excessive leverage,  the financial sector has become to some extent self-referential. Rather than helping with a proper diversification and management of risk, the financial sector itself created a huge tail risk for the rest of the economy.