Other matters of interest  To wrap up this presentation, I would like to comment on three issues related to the Bank’s work in monitoring the economy and exercising its powers. These are: (a) the impact of the economic crisis on women in Chile; (b) the distinction between uncertainty and risk in the behavior of economic agents; and (c) the transparency of the CBC in the formulation and execution of its policy decisions. Impact of the economic crisis on Chilean women The first topic, Madam President, will no doubt be familiar to you, as it was raised by yourself during the presentation of the March Report, a little over two months ago. The impact of the Covid-19 crisis on women is of great relevance not only to understand the concrete experience of the social, sanitary, and economic crisis on the population, but also to identify one of the main challenges for the very process of recovery in which we are engaged today. To this effect, we have included in this Report a box (Box III.1) specifically dedicated to this topic, in the preparation of which we have tried to go beyond traditional economic statistics and which we hope will be the starting point of a longer agenda for the generation of data and analysis by the CBC on this subject. This Box has four main messages: a.
Even so, it is estimated that, in the central scenario, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) will stay below its neutral level throughout the policy horizon, underpinning a recovery process that will continue to be met with significant challenges. I will now describe our assessment of the economic outlook and related risks. II. The macroeconomic scenario  So far into this year, the Chilean economy has outperformed expectations, notably because the impact of the quarantines on activity was significantly milder than we anticipated. In fact, although activity declined during March and April, the effect of the increased sanitary restrictions was about one fifth of what we saw at the onset of the pandemic. Several factors have contributed to this result: the greater adaptation of businesses to the social  Page 1 of 27  distancing requirements; the support of favorable financial conditions; adjustments to the Step-by-Step Plan; and the boost to demand by public policies (Figure 1). Pension fund withdrawals and massive fiscal transfers have been fundamental determinants of the dynamism of private consumption, which has spearheaded the economic upswing. In the first quarter, private consumption had already grown by almost 5 percent annually, with a nearly 50 percent increase in spending on durables, most notably to purchase technological items and automobiles. Information from retail trade, supermarket sales, and electronic billing shows that consumption of goods remained dynamic through April and May. Spending on services, despite recovering part of last year’s decline, continues to show negative annual variation rates, reflecting the persistence of supply-side constraints.