But what can be said so far is that we in Sweden have already been in the situation that other countries may be about to enter and have had, for some time, the debate that may be on the horizon there. In this respect, we are, in a sense, ‘ahead of the cycle’, both as regards the development of inflation and the monetary policy debate. It could therefore be worthwhile to summarise our experiences so far. Maybe there will be a few lessons that other countries and central banks may find useful and that have implications for the international debate. So let me start there. When I discuss the lessons that I think we have learned, I would like to divide the period after the global financial crisis into two different sub-periods and discuss them separately: the period of falling inflation 2011–2014 and the period of rising inflation 2015–2017. I would like to emphasise that, as usual, I am expressing my personal opinion. It is possible that my colleagues on the Executive Board have come to the same conclusions as I do here, but it is also conceivable that they have made a different interpretation. See Jansson (2016), where I discuss the criticism of the inflation target in more detail. It should be emphasised that this was one type of criticism that was expressed. In the speech, I also address other types of criticism, with less far-reaching implications. 4 Yellen (2017b). 5 Brainard (2017). 6 Draghi (2017).
It is effects of this type that are referred to in the international debate when arguing that the policy rate is far too blunt an instrument to counter financial imbalances. Sweden's experiences also suggest that the policy rate cannot always be expected to be available for this purpose. Even when a central bank is leaning quite moderately against the wind, such a policy could be in conflict with the task of maintaining confidence in the inflation target. Here too, of course, the question arises of whether it is really so important to maintain confidence in the inflation target. Would it not be possible for monetary 7 [20]  policy instead to just lean against the wind and let inflation develop as it will? Once again, I will return to this shortly. Before continuing, I would like to add that there is a growing amount of research that explicitly attempts to calculate the costs and benefits of using the policy rate to attempt to counteract financial imbalances. The debate is ongoing and the jury is still out. 13 Of course, in this context, the view I present here should only be seen as a country-specific case study. But considering that practical experience of this type of policy is very limited, reflections from someone who has been involved in taking decisions in a country that is ‘ahead in the cycle’ may perhaps be of some value.