13  Figure 3  Inflationary surprises by components (1) (percentage points)  2.0 2,0  Volatiles  Core  Total  1.5 1,5 1.0 1,0 0.5 0,5 0.0 0,0 -0.5 -0,5 Sep.21  Dec.21  Mar.22  Jun.22  Sep.22  Dec.22  Mar.23  (1) Cumulative surprises in respective MP reports. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute. Figure 4  Private consumption (*)  (index, 2018=100, original real series)  120  Current  Previous  Private consumption of goods and services (index, 2018=100, seasonally adjusted)  175  Private consumption Durable goods  115  150  Non-durable goods  110  Services 125  105 100  100  95 75  90 85  50 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22  18  19  20  21  22  (*) For the fourth quarter of 2022 of the previous series, the annual change in the current series is used. Source: Central Bank of Chile.
12  Figure 2  Real exchange rate (RER) (1)(2) (average, 1986 average=100) RER 15-year average 122  250  115  200  108  Commodity prices (3) (index, 2010-2023 average=100) Metal index (5) Wheat (6) Oil (4) Copper  150  101  100  94  50  87 80 10  12  14  16  18  20  0  22  Transportation costs and supply chains  20  21  22  23  Cyclical component of aggregate margins  (st. deviation of historical average, monthly; percent of GDP, (percent, moving 3-month average) quarterly) Global supply chain pressure index (8) 4 Transportation cost (7)  0  4 2 0 3 -2 2 -4 1 -6  -2  0 -8  6 4 2  18  19  20  21  22  23  11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22  (1) March 2023 data is preliminary average of the month. (2) Average of the last 15 years. Corresponds to the period Mar.08-Feb.23 (3) Dashed vertical line marks statistical cutoff of December 2022 MP Report. (4) WTI-Brent average. (5) S&P GSCI industrial metals. (6) One-month futures price. (7) Calculated as difference between CIF and FOB imports. (8) For details, see Global Supply Chain Pressure Index by Fed NY. Sources: Central Bank of Chile, Barrero et al. (2023), Acevedo et al. (2023), and New York Federal Reserve.