One possibility I consider worth testing would be to wait for some months before the Board evaluates the measures comprehensively and publishes more detailed minutes. This, in any event, is a matter to which the Board intends to return later this autumn with the aim of establishing a procedure for preparing these matters and providing information about them in ways that are appropriate to the current exchange rate regime. At the same time, it should be underscored that the arrangements we lay down will not be set in concrete. There must be some latitude for unforeseen circumstances. It is worth mentioning that when the Executive Board came into being in January 1999 and chose to work with public minutes, the interval before they were published was comparatively long, 6 to 8 weeks. Since then it has proved possible to reduce the lag to only a fortnight without giving rise to serious detrimental effects. Conclusion The main message in my address today has been that in the current monetary policy regime the exchange rate ought to be regarded mainly as one of a number of forecast variables. The problem here is that, like other currencies, the Swedish krona is difficult to forecast in the time perspective that is relevant for monetary policy, namely a couple of years ahead. The situation is complicated, moreover, in that the exchange rate is a variable that in certain situations monetary policy can conceivably affect directly. We try to use all the available information in order to arrive at our forecast.
At the same, this conclusion should not be taken too far, so that the tendency is assumed to be permanent. As we have seen, there have been periods when the rate of price increases for imported consumer goods has been held back by other factors than just an altered exchange rate pass-through. In a situation where resource utilisation is high, a weakening of the exchange rate is no longer perceived as transient and favourable one-off effects have ceased to act, the pass-through from exchange rate movements can be larger than what we have observed in recent years. Currency interventions and transparency Before concluding, I would like to say something with reference to the discussion that arose in connection with the Riksbank’s currency interventions in June. First I should underscore that for a number of years now we have taken great pains to be as open and clear about monetary policy as it is possible to be. I have no qualms about claiming that during the past five years we have become one of the world’s most transparent central banks. What we have achieved in this respect is something of a cultural upheaval. The most recent step, in spring 1999, was that we began publishing the minutes of the new Executive Board’s monetary policy meetings. As I have explained in other contexts, transparency and clarity serve several purposes. They can enhance monetary policy’s credibility and legitimacy. They can also make monetary policy more predictable.