In 2015, the last year for which full information is available, the external sector posted a positive balance of 2.4% of GDP, a figure that might improve in 2016, despite the lower growth recorded in 2016 in world trade. The competitive gains have spurred firms’ investment and hiring decisions, which have also been boosted by the decline in borrowing costs since mid-2012, to which both the efforts to clean up and restructure our banking system and the ECB’s monetary policy have contributed. Job creation, observable since the onset of this expansionary phase, has been conducive to a pick-up in household confidence and income levels which, in turn, has driven the recovery in consumption spending. As a result, private domestic demand has become the main engine of the recovery, underpinned also by certain transitory factors, such as lower oil prices and the marginally expansionary stance of budgetary policy in the two-year period spanning 2015 and 2016. The fallout from the crisis and the challenges outstanding Yet it should be stressed that, after more than three years of growth, some of the main scars of the crisis remain present. The high unemployment and public debt levels and the heavy dependence on external financing are areas of vulnerability for our economy that should not be underestimated. For the euro area as a whole, the current environment remains one of moderate and fragile growth. In the current circumstances, the sustained recovery in activity, investment and employment in the euro area requires that other economic policies should complement monetary policy measures.
But I believe that today the risks are high because political repudiation – attributable in part to the crisis, but not only to the crisis – is on the agenda, and this was non-existent or insubstantial only a decade ago. For the first time since the signing of the European Union Treaty in 1992, political currents and popular movements have arisen in the EU openly contrary to the integration so far achieved and, of course, to potential further steps towards greater integration; contrary to European institutions and their current remits; and contrary to the continuity of the single currency. The announced departure by the United Kingdom, whatever its final form, is going to encourage these movements. In this situation, national governments, European Union authorities and legislators all have a responsibility to come up with the appropriate response and to pursue the reforms that may first contain misgivings and then restore support, relatively seamlessly, for the grand European Union project. To conclude, allow me to return to monetary policy and central bank action. As we approach the twentieth anniversary of the launching of the euro, we can have no doubts about the crucial importance of preserving and strengthening the Monetary Union and the single currency in order to sustain and give continuity to the European Union project. Many thanks, once more, to Fomento de Trabajo Nacional for this celebratory event and to all of you for your attention. . 7/7