In this trajectory, core inflation – the CPIEFE – will be less than 4 percent towards the fourth quarter, and the more volatile prices not included in the CPIEFE – mainly foodstuffs – should help headline inflation to converge to 3 percent slightly faster than we expected in December. In the latter part of 2015, we raised the monetary policy rate (MPR) twice, bringing it to 3.5 percent. After that, we communicated that additional adjustments were still required, which would be made at a measured pace. Accordingly, we held the MPR unchanged in our meetings of January, February and March. Now let me get in more detail into the macroeconomic scenario we believe to be the most likely for the coming quarters, and associated risks. Macroeconomic scenario The main developments of recent months show that in the latter part of last year the economy grew less than anticipated. A fall in mining activity, which we had already seen in previous quarters, was compounded with slower growth in sectors unrelated with natural resources. In particular, those linked to services. Domestic demand also grew less than estimated and is expected to remain weak. The slowdown in its private consumption and investment components stood out (figure 1). Another important development of recent months came from abroad. Mainly, because the external impulse that the Chilean economy will face in 2016 and 2017 will be lower than we expected in December.
There is a summary of the results of the survey for the participating Spanish banks in Menéndez-Pujadas, Á. and M. Mulino (2020), “October 2020 Bank Lending Survey”, Analytical Articles, Economic Bulletin, 4/2020, Banco de España. 3  Secondly, the comprehensive nature of the monetary policy response has also been very important. It should be borne in mind that the COVID-19 outbreak in the euro area came about against a background of: low inflation and extensive monetary stimulus, with benchmark interest rates at a record low of -0.5%; net asset purchases under the asset purchase programme (APP); and a set timetable for the TLTROs. In this setting, the ECB measures have run along two main axes: the purchase of financial assets and the provision of liquidity to commercial banks, covering the euro area economy’s main financing channels. As regards asset purchases, I have already referred to the approval of the PEPP. The main aim of this programme is to ease financing conditions and ensure the smooth transmission of the common monetary policy to all euro area countries. As to liquidity provision, we should recall that, in the euro area, banks are the main source of financing for households, the self-employed and firms. It was therefore vital to head off a severe contraction in the flow of credit to the real economy.