We estimate the GDP growth rate that can be sustained without pushing up inflation – potential GDP growth – at between 1.5% and 2%. This is lower than the growth rate we have observed since 2006. Measuring the output gap is tricky, however, because certain favourable factors, such as the influx of skilled labour, the deregulation of certain domestic markets and increased global competition might have pushed up potential GDP growth. Having said this, however, we should not overlook those factors which have the opposite effect. For instance, equipment investment has receded, which has a dampening effect on potential growth. Moreover, even if capacity utilisation as a whole is not excessive, bottlenecks might occur in certain sectors of the economy. And, above all, experience has shown that the output gap is often underestimated during phases of growth. Consequently, the risk of underestimating the output gap may now be greater than that of overestimating it. The third risk is associated with the future development of the Swiss franc. As its exchange rate is determined by the market, it is subject to fluctuations. Movements in the export-weighted Swiss franc index alter the degree of restrictiveness of our monetary policy. Normally, during periods of rising  2  BIS Review 67/2007  interest rates, this index tends to increase, thereby amplifying the effects of monetary policy by mitigating price increases in imported products and slowing the expansion in economic activity. This reaction pattern was not observed during the past two years, which could put pressure on interest rates.
The National Bank started such activities in 2014 when it created foreign investment securities statistics, which was then supplemented with data on domestic securities. In addition, the crisis has shown that the risks can increase largely not only in the banking system, but also in shadow banking. Therefore, there is a need for upgrading the statistics with data not only for depository institutions, but also for all other financial institutions. Following these trends in 2012, we started with the preparation of the statistics of the most important non-bank financial institutions, which enabled us to 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  constantly monitor their activities and the potential risks. We recently fully complied this statistics with the latest IMF’s Guide on monetary and financial statistics. The second segment is the improvement of databases on cross-border financial systems. The consequences of the global crisis have clearly emphasized the risk of international financial integration, in particular the global connection of systemically important institutions. Such a context has had major consequences on the requirements for increasing the volume and structure of statistical data that will give a better picture of these global connections with a special emphasis on international investment position statistics, as well as more detailed portfolio investment and direct investment statistics. The National Bank already prepares all these surveys on a regular basis, although there is room for further improvement in the area of international position.