Chart 13: The near-term indicators of house price growth have weakened  Chart 14: Interest cost of mortgages will probably remain below average for a while  Balance 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 2000  Per cent 12  Per cent 8 6 4 2  8  0  6  -2 -4 -6 2005 2010 2015 RICS price expectations balance (LHS) House price growth (RHS)  Sources: Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) Residential Market Survey, ONS, Land Registry and Bank calculations. RICS price expectations are three month ahead net balances. 10  4 2  Average 1993-2007Q2  0 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 Sources: ONS, Thomas and Dimsdale (2017) sheet M12, Bank of England, Barclays Live and Bank calculations. The fan is calculated using probability distributions implied by options on sterling interest rate swaps. For further information on how option-implied distributions are derived, see Clews, Panigirtzoglou and Proudman (2000). I can now (finally) get to the point I wanted to make about interest payments. Even if low bond yields don’t presage rapid growth of house prices, one thing they do suggest is that interest payments on mortgage debt will also remain relatively low. Chart 14 plots those payments over the past, as a share of household income. It also includes a range for the future. This assumes that mortgage debt continues to grow in line with household income (whatever that turns out to be).
For this reason, the SNB welcomes the Federal Department of Finance’s decision to set up a commission of experts to draw up proposals on macroprudential oversight and to determine the associated institutional responsibilities. 1  SNB’s comment on the recommendations made by the business audit commission of the National Council and the Council of States. 2  IMF Country Report No. 11/115 within the framework of the Article IV Consultation of May 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3