Finally, in order to be more flexible against the variability of capital flows, a new method for foreign exchange purchase auctions was designed and put into effect on 4 October 2010. To this end, a total of USD 1.76 billion was purchased in the first three weeks, USD 1.2 billion of which was additional purchase. Within the framework of these developments, while the yield curve has shifted down across all maturities during the third quarter, the decline was more significant for longer-term interest. Although surging capital inflows towards emerging markets have been effective, factors specific to Turkey have also contributed to the downward shift in the yield curve, as I  BIS Review 159/2010  5  mentioned at the beginning of my speech. Lower-than-expected core inflation has contributed to the downside movement in the short term, while the drop in longer-term interest rates mostly reflects perceptions that the improvement in the relative creditworthiness of Turkey would become permanent (Figure 15). Dear Guests, Along with decreasing nominal interest rates, real interest rates have continued to hover at historically low levels during the third quarter. Moreover, Turkey’s real interest rates do not differ significantly from those of other emerging markets (Figure 16). 6  BIS Review 159/2010  Meanwhile, with the removal of extra tightness in financial conditions that emerged during the crisis, the effectiveness of the monetary policy on credit market enhanced; thus, the low level of real market rates were better reflected in credit interest rates (Figure 17).
By contrast, monetary tightening may be implemented at an earlier stage, should the recovery in economic activity turn out to be faster than expected. The weakness in the global economic outlook not only delays recovery in external demand but also leads to continuing expansionary monetary policies across developed economies, which in turn fuel domestic demand through an acceleration of capital inflows to emerging markets. Should capital inflows continue, the divergence in the growth rates between domestic and external demand is likely to intensify in the forthcoming period. Additional policy instruments, other than the short-term policy rates, would be needed to curb risks emanating from this channel. In this respect, should the disparity between domestic demand and external demand continue and be accompanied by rapid credit expansion and deterioration of the current account balance, all to lead to financial stability concerns, it would be necessary to utilize other monetary policy instruments such as reserve requirement ratios and liquidity management facilities more effectively. Food and commodity price inflation has accelerated recently. The aggregate demand is not yet at a level to exert inflationary pressures. Along with this, the strength of the Turkish lira limits the pass-through from food and commodity inflation to core goods and services inflation. However, the potential second-round effects continue to pose a risk, if increases in food and commodity prices persist.