To use real time detailed communication and press conferences in this way was a logical decision, bearing in mind (i) the attention the ECB would receive as a major player in the world financial markets and the global economy, (ii) the necessity to “frontload” the public and the markets with information on the thinking of the new institution and (iii) the interest as regards communication at national level through many different languages of having timely public terms of reference. I do not hesitate to say that this new ECB concept of real time detailed communication has been an important element of the new paradigm in central banking communication. Second, there is the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin, which is always published one week after the press conference. It gives a more detailed explanation of the analysis behind the monetary policy decisions. It regularly reports on information collected by the ECB, such as the bank lending survey. Importantly, it now also includes the ECB staff projections four times a year. An advance copy is published immediately after the Press Conference following the Council meeting. This is another example where the ECB has gone very far in making its policy transparent and communicating its economic assessment in real time. The Monthly Bulletin also contains articles which provide insights into the principles governing our policy. Third, the members of the Governing Council members give interviews and speeches to many different audiences. In them they explain the decisions taken and the ECB’s view on current topics within our sphere of competence.
The level of activity in the Finnish economy is still poor, but will benefit, like the Swedish economy, from the global improvement in economic activity. In Denmark and Norway, private consumption will be stimulated by tax reductions. There are also signs of a turnaround in industrial activity in the UK, while private consumption continues to develop favourably. However, there are also risks for developments in Europe: in the euro area the main cause of uncertainty is wage developments. High wage increases for metalworkers in Germany may spread to other sectors and then to other countries in the euro area. There is thus some possibility that the rate of wage increase and inflation in the euro area will be higher than in the main scenario depicted by the Riksbank. The economic situation in Sweden The Inflation Report that was published at the same time as our interest rate decision paints a mainly bright picture of the Swedish economy in the near future. The assessment is that the downturn in economic activity will be shallow and relatively short-lived. The recovery in global market growth, which for Swedish goods amounts to 2-3 per cent this year, will lead to an increase in Swedish exports. Over the next few years, this increase is expected to become 7-8 per cent a year. At the same time, households’ disposable incomes are improving, which contributes to increased consumption.