Trade was roughly in balance. The oil price has rebounded somewhat recently, but is not expected to reach the levels we saw a few years ago. Thus, the high Norwegian current account surpluses may belong to the past. Given the uncertainties related to petroleum wealth, a spending rule more cautious than the permanent income rule seems to be a reasonable strategy. Political feasibility Allow me to round off this discussion with some reflections concerning practical policy. My point is that fiscal guidelines must be politically acceptable and understandable to the wider public. Simplicity and robustness are important concerns. Rules that are not adopted by policymakers carry little value. The Norwegian fiscal rule was introduced in 2001, exactly 30 years after the first oil was extracted from the Norwegian continental shelf. This illustrates that it was not straightforward to arrive at a strategy for how our natural resource wealth was going to be spent. The need to decouple current spending from current revenues was underscored early on, and potential mechanisms were discussed, but these concerns were not reflected in actual policy. In periods, all the oil and gas revenues and more were spent. The fund mechanism was established in 1990, during Norway’s deepest recession in the postwar period. At the time, it was not obvious that the fund would gain much value. The government ran budget deficits in the following years. A first deposit was made in 1996, reflecting a net fiscal surplus. From then on, the value of the fund started to increase quite rapidly.
Øystein Olsen: Does Norway save too much? Speech by Mr Øystein Olsen, Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, 22 March 2018. * * * Accompanying slides of the speech. INTRODUCTION First, let me thank you for the opportunity to speak to you today. I am very happy to visit the Peterson Institute. Norway is a small, open economy which was transformed by the discovery of oil on our continental shelf almost 50 years ago. Back in 1970, the year after the first discovery, income levels were relatively low compared with other western countries. That picture has changed completely. Lower oil prices in recent years have reduced the relative income level somewhat, but measured by GDP per capita, Norway still ranks among the richest countries in the world. Graph: GDP per capita Natural resource discoveries have been identified as a curse for some countries. For Norway, it has been a blessing. We have managed to transform oil and gas resources into real and financial assets. Luck has been supplemented with what I dare claim is a sensible handling of the resources. At an early stage, it was concluded that the resources belong to the Norwegian people. Large savings in recent years means that also future generations will benefit from the revenues. Graph: The petroleum fund mechanism Direct government participation in the industry and an extraordinary tax rate for oil companies, currently at 78 percent, ensure that most of the resource rents flow into government coffers.