13  Figure 8 a) Growth forecast at 2022 (1) (percent)  U.S. Eurozone LatAm China (right axis)  5  4  U.S. 100 Eurozone 6,0 LatAm 80 China (right axis)  7 3,0  6  3  c) Probability of a recession within 12 months in developed countries (percent)  b) Growth forecast at 2023 (1) (percent)  2,5  5,7 60  2,0  5,4  1,5  5,1  1,0  4,8  20  4,5  0  5  2  4  1 3 0,5 Jan.21 Jul.21 Jan.22 Jul.22 Jan.22 Apr.22 Jul.22  40  12 14 16 18 20 22  (1) Latin America considers Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. PPP-weighted growth, shares of each economy according to WEO (IMF). (2) Includes the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, and Japan. Calculated as the average of survey responses for aforementioned countries. Sources: Consensus Forecast, IMF, and Bloomberg. Figure 9 Global supply chain pressure index (1)  Commodity prices  (standard deviations)  (index, 2010-2022 average =100)  5  250  4  200  Oil (2)  Metal index (3)  Wheat (4)  Copper  3 150  2 1  100  0 50  -1 -2  0  10  12  14  16  18  20  22  15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  (1) Standard deviations with respect to historical average.
Nor can it be ruled out that the external scenario will see a reduction in global cost pressures and inflation easing in most 6  economies, including Chile. In this case, the Fed's monetary policy response would be less restrictive than in the central scenario, which would give way to better financial conditions, a less appreciated dollar globally, and lower external inflationary pressures (figure 14). The central scenario projects that the pace of price increases will decrease in the coming months and that annual inflation will begin to decline. However, the risk of a much more persistent inflationary phenomenon is a concern for the Board. If materialized, it could lead to further monetary tightening, outside the upper limit of the MPR corridor. This risk is especially important in a context where inflation has been unexpectedly high for several quarters and inflationary expectations remain above 3% in the two-year horizon. Quickly recovering macroeconomic balances will help reduce this risk, while allowing the Chilean economy to appropriately address a further deterioration of the external scenario. Final remarks Our country is facing many important challenges. One of the most relevant macroeconomically is to reduce inflation, a problem that is putting a heavy burden on all of us. For more than two decades, inflation was not a matter of public concern and there were generations to whom it may have seemed an unknown issue. But in recent quarters it has become a complex issue, which is at the heart of our responsibility as an institution.