Moreover, new estimates of the public finances indicate that public consumption this year may be somewhat weaker than assumed in December. This is mainly due to the financial situation of municipalities. The municipal sector as a whole is running a deficit, which must be redressed in the years ahead. One issue that has been debated recently is the effects on the Swedish economy of the weaker dollar. It is true that the dollar’s performance has been weak, but this is not the whole picture. In tradeweighted terms (TCW), the krona has not strengthened recently. This is mainly because the krona quite contrary to what many had expected - rather has weakened slightly against the euro. So for foreign trade as a whole, the currency developments should not constitute any great problem. Another issue of course is if the weaker dollar, primarily in relation to the euro, could jeopardise the revival in the world economy. Neither does this appear likely as long as the adjustment is fairly orderly. As I mentioned earlier, it is probable that growth in Europe will be slowed down somewhat, but on the other hand it is likely to be more robust in the US. Moreover, the most recent data for the National Accounts and foreign trade indicate that we so far rather have been slightly too pessimistic about Swedish exports. The most palpable concern is the labour market, where growth has been weaker than expected particularly towards the end of 2003.
This must be taken in the light of all the information that is available at the time. For my part, I will also look forward with great interest to what my colleagues have to say. Thank you. BIS Review 6/2004  5