The savings ratio increased in the United States at the same time as domestic demand increased more rapidly in China as a result of a fiscal policy stimulation package. The substantial fall in oil prices also played a role. The question is, however, whether the underlying causes of the imbalances have been corrected. The IMF believes that the imbalances will remain in place in the period ahead (see Figure 2). The oil price has also increased considerably during the last six months, which also indicates that the imbalances will remain. This is because this boosts net exports in oil-exporting countries, which tend to have current account surpluses, but increases costs for oil importers, who tend to have current account deficits. The G20 has pointed to the global imbalances as being an important factor for development in the global economy. One aspect that has been discussed is whether to adjust the nominal exchange rates in order to reduce the imbalances. If China, for example, maintains a fixed exchange rate against the dollar, this will make it possible to adjust the real exchange rate if China has a higher rate of inflation than the United States. However, this entails either a high rate of inflation in China, which the Chinese authorities are not likely to want, or to deflation in the United States, which the US authorities definitely do not want.
It appeared probable that the dollar would depreciate as it was difficult to believe that the United States would be able to maintain its deficit indefinitely, 2 and the real exchange rate normally weakens when a current account deficit needs to be corrected. And the dollar’s status as a reserve currency throughout the world made the entire global economy sensitive to rapid changes in the dollar rate. Although a dollar crisis did not occur, the analysis was reasonable. Substantial and persistent current account surpluses or deficits may be a sign of an underlying weakness or imbalance in the economy. Even though global imbalances have subsequently declined, this is due more to cyclical factors than to structural factors. They have also increased again recently in pace with the recovery of the global economy. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues to monitor the development of global imbalances and says that an adjustment of these imbalances is necessary if the recovery is to rest on stable foundations. 3 The association of developed countries and emerging economies that goes under the name G20 has therefore decided to perform thorough analyses when surpluses or deficits become substantial, in order to determine whether the country concerned should take measures. In the risk survey conducted by the Riksbank in May this year, in which participants on the Swedish fixed-income and foreign-exchange markets were asked to assess the risks to the Swedish financial system, global imbalances were seen as the greatest risk.