It is still too high but is going in the right direction. For France, after 1.2% of GDP growth in 2015, we are likely to see a growth rate above that range for 2016 and 2017. In the short term, we expect growth at 0.4% in the last quarter of 2016. The Banque de France will publish its new growth and inflation projections for France on 9 December. Inflation developments 1/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  [Slide 3] Inflation, which was nil in the euro area in 2015, rose steadily in 2016: it should reach 0.6% in November. Monetary policy has helped and will continue to support a move toward the Eurosystem objective of an inflation rate below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. In addition, oil prices have bottomed out since the beginning of this year and this should directly help inflation to increase beyond 1% in the first months of 2017. [Slide 4] The comprehensive package of measures adopted on 10 March 2016 made euro area monetary policy more accommodative. One of its distinctive features is that it targets the financing of the real economy. The second series of targeted refinancing operations (dubbed “TLTRO 2”), for an amount of EUR 444.6 bn allotted so far, should continue to improve medium-term funding conditions for banks and foster bank lending to companies and households. 2/ Structural policies Progress has also been made regarding structural reforms. Several European countries, including Germany and Spain, are showing the way forward to Europe.
The scale of the systemic changeover is tremendous, roughly on a par with our earlier change to driving on the right-hand side of the road. A fundamental principle for the work is that, as far as possible, all those concerned are to find their own solutions to the problems posed by EMU. The Riksbank is responsible for the changeover in the financial sector. To this end we have set up a body called SIFS (the Swedish acronym for Consultation and Information to the Financial Sector). One result to date is a report, published a few days ago, on the situation as regards the euro in Sweden’s financial sector. Good progress has been made in the preparatory work. Timetables and suitable solutions have been established in a number of fields. The Riksbank considers that the financial BIS Review 14/1997  -5-  sector can manage a changeover to the euro on 1st January 1999. Participation from a later date can facilitate the preparatory work in certain respects and complicate it in others. The worst alternative is a long period of uncertainty; that would entail a costly duplication of systems in many fields. I should like to end with some examples of changes that will occur and be of importance for the financial markets. 1. Monetary policy A single currency presupposes a single monetary policy. In EMU this will be implemented by the ECB. In this context the national central banks will function as “operative arms”, acting on instructions from the ECB.