Sometimes, inflation has been a bit higher than expected, other times a bit lower. On balance, inflation has been very close to our 2 percent longer-run objective. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Although I have focused on the private forecasting record here, the FOMC participants’ forecasts show a similar pattern. It is on the growth side where there have been chronic, systematic misses. In my view, the primary reason for the poor performance of the U.S. economy over this period has been inadequate aggregate demand. There are several explanations for this. Although some were well-known earlier, others have only become more obvious as the recovery has unfolded. One reason is the nature of economic recoveries following financial crises. On that basis, the poor performance of the U.S. economy is not unusual – historical experience shows clearly that recoveries following financial crises typically are very slow and difficult.1 During the credit boom, finance is available on easy terms and the economy builds up excesses in terms of leverage and risk-taking. When the bust arrives, credit availability drops sharply and financial deleveraging occurs. Wealth falls sharply, precautionary liquidity demands increase, desired leverage drops further. In the U.S. case, there were some idiosyncratic elements, such as subprime lending and collateralized debt obligations. But, in the end, the U.S. experience included the major elements of most booms: Too much leverage, too little understanding of risk, too easy credit terms, and then a very sharp reversal.
Even over the next few years, while there are significant downside risks relating to the fiscal cliff and the eurozone, it is possible that the recovery could turn out stronger than expected. The underlying process of balance sheet repair is considerably advanced, housing is recovering and, as that occurs, our newly recalibrated monetary policy could gain additional traction. Thus, if uncertainties about the U.S. fiscal path and the future of the eurozone were resolved in a constructive manner, growth could pick up more vigorously than anticipated. 5  8  http://www.people-press.org/2011/11/03/section-6-generations-and-entitlements/  BIS central bankers’ speeches  This would be a wonderful outcome. The September FOMC statement noted: the Committee expects “that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy will remain appropriate for a considerable time after the recovery strengthens”. Consistent with this, if we were to see some good news on growth I would not expect us to respond in a hasty manner. Only as we became confident that the recovery was securely established, would I expect our monetary policy stance to evolve to ensure that it remained appropriate to achievement of our objective: maximum sustainable employment in the context of price stability. Thank you for your kind attention. I would welcome a few questions.