The direct effect of the global downturn on overall growth in the Norwegian economy has so far been limited. This is partly attributable to high oil prices and the high level of activity in the oil sector. However, as a result of the interest rate differential and the strong krone, the global downturn will have a substantial impact on Norwegian business and industry. The government’s use of petroleum revenues or expectations of increased spending of petroleum revenues may have contributed to sustaining activity and the strong krone. Increased use of petroleum revenues over the central government budget is stimulating demand for goods and services. This will intensify the contest for economic resources and pressures in the business sector. Mainland GDP in 2002 Percentage change. Projections published at different points in time 2.5  2.5  2  2  1.5  1.5  1  1  0.5  0.5  0  0 Nov 00  Mar 01  Jul 01  Nov 01  Mar 02  Jul 02  Nov 02  Source: Norges Bank SG Gausdal 31.01.03  The exchange rate may move more in the short term than is necessary in the long term. One reason may be that the krone has to overshoot its long-term level since market participants will weigh the interest rate differential against the possibility of a future depreciation of the krone.
Many of you will know that similar changes are taking place globally in AML/CFT; technology is providing practical solutions that are being applied in the real world. So what’s holding some of us back? Should we be afraid to experiment, to change the way we are doing AML work? 13. Let me be very clear about one thing: the risk for all of us is being complacent, of carrying on as we have been and not confronting the barriers that may stand between us and progress. We should not be afraid of trying out solutions that we feel will have genuine impact, even if some turn out not to deliver everything they promise. 14. With that in mind, our focus in these two days is to bring banks, regulators, technologists and other important players within our AML/CFT eco-system together to challenge our thinking, tackle pain points and discuss how we can move further ahead. Working collaboratively with like-minded people, we need to be ambitious because this is just as much about the human element, the impact of global financial crime, as it is about compliance with AML/CFT requirements. 15. We want to help enable change in banks because we recognise that, the better banks are able to apply a data driven, technology-enabled approach to AML work, the better we are able to discharge our role and achieve the HKMA’s statutory objectives. 16.