This is dictated by the need to strengthen growth potential. Achieving the non-hydrocarbon growth potential will rely on productive investment, notably in the private sector, in a context of continued public investment programme implementation at  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  an appropriate pace, given the constraints imposed by the acuity and persistence of the external shock. The development and dissemination of economic information for the benefit of economic agents, particularly SMEs, is key to better investment orientation. In particular, appropriate ministerial departments should focus on promoting advisory structures to improve the provision of accurate information on investment sectors and markets. Sustained improvement in the business environment is crucial to boost the private sector’s contribution to high and inclusive non-hydrocarbon growth. In this regard, improving investment effectiveness and increasing its impact on employment should be a strategic objective. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5
Until the beginning of 2012, the path of the SNB’s conditional inflation forecast lies above that of the previous quarter’s forecast. This is attributable to the assumption of higher oil prices compared to the previous quarter and somewhat higher import prices. Assuming an unchanged three-month Libor of 0.25% over the forecast horizon, the SNB expects average inflation rates of 0.9% for 2011, 1.0% for 2012 and 1.7% for 2013. Over the course of 2012, the path of the new forecast is lower than that of March because of the latest appreciation of the Swiss franc and the slightly slower development of international growth. Towards the end of the forecast period, inflation rises briskly and exceeds the upper bound of 2%. This shows that the current expansionary monetary policy cannot be maintained over the entire forecast horizon without compromising price stability in the long term. Due to the risks mentioned previously, the conditional inflation forecast is, however, associated with a high level of uncertainty. Global economic outlook Economic growth continued worldwide in the first quarter, although there were considerable regional differences. As in the previous quarters, the emerging economies recorded the highest growth rates. In the euro area, particularly Germany, the recovery was supported by strong export and investment activity. In the US, by contrast, high energy prices weighed on sentiment and held back growth. In addition, the persistent crisis on the real estate market is hampering the economic recovery. In Japan, there was a significant decline in GDP as a result of the earthquake.