The Turkish accession today would imply an increase of more than 17 percent in the EU population. Indeed, between 1990-2003, the average population growth rate and the birth rate Turkey have been 1.8 percent and 2.3 percent per annum respectively.15 The Turkish population is expected to stay young in the foreseeable future. Whereas in the 2000 s, the EU-15 has 0.3 percent of population growth rate and 1.1 percent of birth rate on average at highly decreasing trends.16 According to certain estimations, in the year 2020, the average age in the EU-15 will be 43, while it will be 33 in Turkey17. This means that in the future, Europe will probably be experiencing labour shortages rather than the unemployment problems of today18. What this argument implies that Turkey s young and expanding population will reduce the negative impact of the EU s aging and diminishing work force in the coming 15-20 years. Turkey with a young population would be an important asset in the long-term in competing with countries such as China, India and the US. As another variable in the equation, we observe an advantageous position for Turkey regarding the dependency ratio. As a result of a young and growing population, the dependency ratio of the Turkish population is in a decreasing trend. As of the year 2000, the share of the age group of 55 and above in total population is 29 percent in the EU-15 while that of Turkey is a mere 11 percent19.
First of all, although the unemployment rate in the Turkish economy is quite high compared to the EU members, we observe that the total increase in employment throughout the year 2004 was much higher than that of the EU members and acceding countries. Another notable issue about the structure of our labour market is that Turkey s economy is moving from a labour intensive structure toward a capital intensive one. And it is a natural consequence that during this period some sectors are expanding while others are contracting. What this implies is that the structure of employment has also been changing. In fact, even though it is still  15  Under-Secretariat of State Planning Organization. 16  http://www.europa.eu.int/comm/eurostat. 17  International Labour Organization. 18  Böttcher, B. (2004). "Turkish Accession to the EU- The Way is the Goal". Deutche Bank Research. 19  International Labour Organization. 20  www.un.org. 6/8  high compared to the EU members, the share of the agricultural sector in total employment has been falling while that of services sector has been on the rise. And I believe that Turkey s young and dynamic demographic structure supports easier transfers between sectors and facilitates improvement in the sectoral dispersion of employment. Having mentioned all these demographic and labour market conditions of the EU and Turkey, I need to emphasize the importance of making further progress on educational reforms in Turkey.