Rotemberg, J., and M. Woodford, (1997), “An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy”, NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Vol. 12, pp. 297–346. Shirakawa, M., (2010) “Revisiting the Philosophy behind Central Bank Policy”, Speech at the Economic Club of New York, April 22 2010. Taleb, N., (2012), “Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder” Forthcoming from Random House (US) & Penguin (UK). Woodford, M., (2003), “Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy,” Princeton University Press: Princeton, NJ. BIS central bankers’ speeches  19
Have they been transformed into new puzzles and uncertainties? And what does it all mean for policy going forward? The good news is that the recovery has remained strong. Indeed, after the revisions to the past data in this year’s blue book we now know the economy passed its pre-crisis size in the third quarter of 2013. We can talk now of an expansion rather than a recovery. On the latest data, growth in the four quarters to September now stands at 3% – a little stronger than expected back last November. Growth was particularly strong in the first half of the year and the business surveys suggest that may well be revised upwards. In the latest quarter of this year, growth is reported to have fallen back to 0.7%. The burst of pent up demand that propelled the initial recovery was a little stronger and lasted a little longer than we had been expecting last November. But it does now seem to be fading. Moreover, growth has become more broadly based due to the marked pick up in business investment. The shift of the balance of growth towards business investment that the surveys were pointing to last November, has I am pleased to say come through more strongly than expected. Business investment now looks to have driven around a third of the increase in GDP we have seen over the past year. That has made the recovery more broadly based and more sustainable.