This is a lot in an historical perspective. Although some mortgage rates have declined slightly following the repo rate cuts, the gap remains. Mortgage rates are to a great extent governed by the banks' possibilities to borrow abroad. The effect of this is that interest costs for households with mortgages fall less than one might have expected. As a result of the financial crisis, the stimulating effect of a repo rate cut is thus less than it would have been otherwise. I would like to emphasise that there is unusually great uncertainty surrounding the assessments and forecasts at present and that it is thus more difficult to judge the effects of our monetary policy. The outcome data and indicators the Riksbank has received since the  6  BIS Review 149/2008  monetary policy meeting in September clearly pointed to a severe deterioration in economic activity, both in Sweden and abroad. Compared with the assessment made in September, the Riksbank revised down its forecast for international growth by almost one percentage point. Growth in 2009 was assumed at the monetary policy meeting held on 22 October to be close to zero in the United States, the euro area and Sweden. There are also signs that the economies in Asia are slowing down. In China, growth has fallen during the first half of the year and is expected to continue to fall. Economic activity in Japan has also slowed down and the most recent GDP figures show that the economy is now in a recession.
Durmuş Yılmaz: Recent economic and financial developments in Turkey Speech by Mr Durmuş Yilmaz, Governor of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, at the press conference for the presentation of the Inflation Report, Ankara, 30 April 2009. *  *  *  Distinguished Guests and Members of the Press, Welcome to the press conference for the presentation of the April 2009 Inflation Report, one of the most important communication tools of the inflation-targeting regime. The report typically elaborates global and domestic macroeconomic developments and presents the medium-term inflation forecasts revised in line with the previous quarter developments. It also presents six boxes examining the recent monetary policy decisions and the relevant economic developments. Now, I would like to give you a short summary of our evaluations and the Central Bank’s revised inflation forecasts in the Inflation Report, which will be posted on the CBT website today. 1. Inflation developments  Distinguished Members of the Press, The world economy has been undergoing a period dominated by dynamics quite unlike to those of previous years. With the loss of confidence resulting from the on-going financial crisis, the global economy entered a significant contraction trend after a long period of time. Impacts of the crisis on real economic activity deepened in the first quarter of 2009. Thus, inflationary pressures, which were perceived as a major concern until the last quarter of 2008, were overtaken by fears of deflation in developed countries in the first quarter of 2009.