In a scenario when we see oil prices slump from the current relatively high levels, both business and household expectations are set to be negatively affected for a time. However, we expect no reversal in the current positive economic trend. We cannot rule out a certain slowdown in the paces of growth between late this year and early next year; yet subsequently, the economic 2 / 14  BIS central bankers' speeches  trends of today will prevail. Businesses will be gradually building up investment as they capitalise on their profits accumulated in prior years. The real sector’s ability to borrow will also improve over time. Alongside with softer monetary conditions, this will give extra impetus to growth in investment. Consumer demand will recover gradually on the back of growing revenues and improving expectations. This process is expected to be smooth and create no inflation risks. The recent strengthening in the ruble is set to bring about increased demand for imports in the first half of 2017. Moving forward, however, this growth is on course to become slower; in this way, exports are set to grow at moderate paces. In 2017–2018, economic growth will total about 1-1.5%, with acceleration to 1.5-2% envisaged as early as 2019. Still, potential economic growth will be invariably constrained by structural factors. Following this recovery period, paces of GDP growth are expected to be equal or less than 1.52%. The current account balance is expected to rise in 2017, prompted by higher oil prices.
QUESTION from Reuters: Your press release allows for a gradual downgrade in the key rate. Is this to say that a 25 basis point reduction in future is the new normalcy? ELVIRA NABIULLINA: Thank you very much. It is true that we have decided on this magnitude of reduction – 25 percentage points after long time. A short while ago, I floated the idea of a smaller step as we transition progressively to a single-digit rate. This is understood to be standard practice when the key rate is below 10%. Yet, this is not to say that each policy meeting will decide in favour of a 25 bp reduction. I leave open the possibility of a further 0.5 bp reduction provided that the right conditions are in place; however, I envisage that a 0.25 reduction is likely to be more acceptable in the near future. QUESTION from Interfax: Two questions, please. First. Last autumn, the Central Bank issued a public statement that it was crafting guidance for civil servants, in an effort to mitigate the volatility of the exchange rate. Can you please update us on the status of this guidance? For which civil servants is this intended? Does this initiative remain current in light of recent statements that suggest a general over-strengthening in the ruble and that they weigh in on the exchange rate? And another question, if I may. Recently, we have heard heavy criticism against Rosstat. What is the Bank of Russia’s view of Rosstat statistics?