Whether we choose to bolster the tools for CCP resilience, CCP recovery or CCP resolution, we will need to be aware of potential trade-offs in the way losses are allocated, and remember that there may be no ideal approach. I have provided an overview of the pros and cons of these various approaches. It will be crucial not to lose sight of the systemic view when discussing CCP loss absorption, and to pay close attention to the interconnections between CCP exposures and bank exposures, and to the impact of CCP risk-management on pro-cyclicality in the global financial system. I look forward to learning from our discussions today and I hope they will shed new light on some of the trade-offs I have identified. Thank you for your attention. 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches
BIS Review 40/2007  5  instance, the members may disagree as to how quickly inflation should be returned to target after a shock. This type of situation may be complicated. But after all, we have managed to agree earlier on interest rate messages that have contained information on our future intentions. Other arguments have also been put forward against publishing one’s own forecast for the development of the policy rate. One is that it could damage our credibility and make communication with the general public and the financial markets more difficult. Let us assume that the central bank first notifies a particular interest rate path but that new information is received afterwards, which leads to a policy rate decision that differs from the path published earlier. According to this argument, the deviation could be perceived as a failure by the central bank and could impair the bank’s credibility 7 . However, I am fairly convinced that it is the other way around – that communication will now be clearer and more efficient. I believe that there is currently widespread understanding among households, companies and market participants that monetary policy must be adjusted when the prevailing conditions change. A forecast is by nature uncertain and this applies even more the further ahead it stretches. We have also been clear on this point. Our assessment of the development of the repo rate, as presented in the Monetary Policy Report, is a forecast. It is not a promise!