So it is particularly important at present to ensure that the current low levels of interest rates do not mask the likely cost of mortgages and so create more headroom for prices to rise. It is possible that affordability constraints, reinforced by lenders’ underwriting standards, will increasingly act as a brake on the speed at which house prices are growing and as a brake on mortgage debt. In that case, having recovered much of their fall following the crisis, we will see house price growth slow to match the pace of earnings growth – a soft landing. This is not without precedent. In 2004, having risen at an average rate of almost 20% over the previous 2 years, house price growth began to slow with the annual growth rate falling to just 2% by the middle of 2005. The 125bps increase in Bank Rate in the 13 months to September 2004 was no doubt part of the story. It proved, however, to be short lived episode. Amid a period of easing credit conditions, the pace of house price growth began to rise again through 2006, reaching double-digit rates by 2007. But it is probably an example of how affordability can brake the market. However, there is another way the story can play out – a major overshoot in prices and build up in debt followed by a sharp correction with negative equity and an overhang of debt for many households.
Legal systems and competitiveness of financial centres  Fundamentally, the legal system should ensure that contract and property rights are sufficiently clear and predictable; if there is a dispute, participants in the contract do not feel  1  I wish to thank L. Stracca, M. Svoboda, S. Kerjean, F. Recine and C. Zilioli for their contribution. 2  Mishkin (2005). 3  Precisely through its negative impact on the quality of institutions and law enforcement. BIS Review 122/2007  1  the need to take legal action unless as a last resort. Moreover, if there is litigation, the court is independent and able to resolve the claim effectively and in a reasonable time. Furthermore, the judgment, once delivered, has to be quickly enforced. To underline the importance of this aspect let me give the example my own country. There is a growing literature suggesting that one of the reasons for the relatively slow pace of financial development in Italy is the slowness of the civil courts, with the result that, for example, mortgage debt is still a fraction of what it is typically in other advanced countries. 4 At this point it should be clear that an efficient legal system is a key ingredient of competitiveness among financial centres. One of the reasons of the traditional lead of US financial markets over Europe (and the rest of the world) is greater standardisation of legal norms and systems, while the European financial system is still characterised by considerable fragmentation of legislation, regulation and enforcement.