We are now getting close to the end of that reservoir of spare labour supply. It is very difficult to say how close; measuring spare capacity in the economy with great precision – to single decimal points – is not really possible. But for the economy to grow robustly and sustainably over the next few years’ productivity growth will need to begin to pick up. This does not need to happen overnight. But it does need to happen. The MPC’s economic forecast I am pleased to be able to say that this is the central scenario in the MPC’s latest forecast. Our forecast is for the economy to grow robustly at around 2.5% a year over the next three years. That is a bit slower than the average annual growth rate of nearly 3% in the seven years before the crisis. But it’s a great deal better than the roughly 0.5% annual average over the seven years that followed. In our forecast, growth continues to be driven by private domestic demand – essentially, household consumption and business investment, both of these have been growing strongly since the middle of 2013. Of course, given our history any forecast of sustained robust consumption growth in the UK automatically raises eyebrows; the suspicion of a debt fuelled spending boom is never far away. But our forecast of strong consumption growth over the next three years does not depend on an increase in household debt.
It is for this reason, for example, that the Bank of Zambia has supported the work of journalists in understanding economic issues and supported their associations in improving the standard of journalism in Zambia. Further, the Bank of Zambia publishes its own inhouse magazine “THE ZAMBANKER” as well as more technical economic articles mainly written by staff on topical issues in the Zambian economy in “THE BoZ READER”. Although most of the articles have been written by staff in the Bank, we have always encouraged the public to contribute articles on issues relating to the Zambian economy. In this regard, I wish to once more extend an invitation to you all to contribute articles for publication in the ZAMBANKER or indeed the BoZ READER. BIS Review 74/2008  1  Distinguished Guests, In order to effectively address the issue of how to secure a sustainable economic future, the first point of call must surely be to address the issue of illiteracy in Zambia. A good number of our citizens especially those living in the rural areas are not able to read both in English or local languages. This is a major hindrance to sustainable economic development, as it makes it very difficult to transfer new technologies and skills to the rural populace – skills that are critical in improving health and education outcomes and harnessing the tremendous potential that this country possesses. The scenario in the urban areas, though slightly better than the rural areas, still leaves much to be desired.