We have assumed in our forecasts that the euro crisis will be resolved in an orderly manner so we can avoid the abrupt downturn that came in the wake of the Lehman Brothers crash in autumn 2008. Personally, I am not prepared to entirely abandon this assumption. Monetary policy must be based on forecasts, and basing these on disaster scenarios is not reasonable. We must continue in the same way as before, making forecasts that are based on incoming statistics and giving consideration to the risks of a poorer development in the euro area. Our forecasts for the Swedish economy and monetary policy need to be gradually adjusted to this. If there is a sharp downturn in the economy we are prepared to act quickly and forcefully. We demonstrated this during the crisis period 2008–2009. There is currently considerable focus on the euro crisis, but there is reason to point out that there are other risks, albeit less dramatic, to take into account. I will come back to these. There are also possibilities that growth in the world around us will be better in the slightly longer run than we are now envisaging. We are currently experience a confidence crisis with political overtones. This also means that if the political measures gradually gain credibility, confidence may return quickly and the economy may recover more strongly than we are predicting. This has happened before.
A change of culture is possible and as the England Cricket team has demonstrated to our great enjoyment, a lot can be achieved in a short space of time where there is commitment. Thank you  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3