The fixed game rules in banking, the economy and policy arising from the fixed exchange rate and the currency board notably contributed to smothering excessive euphoria already prior to the global crisis. Third of all, the fixed exchange rate is the pillar of our financial system as well. As a result of all this, the vulnerabilities of the Estonian economy have decreased significantly. This will enable us to concentrate on measures supporting economic growth once the crisis is over. I would like to stress once again that in a small and open economy like Estonia, the fixed exchange rate based policy is the best way to ensure the stability of money for both enterprises and households. Confidence in our own money is one of the most important factors in defeating the crisis. Thus, joining the euro area will be a logical continuation to our current monetary policy and accelerate exiting the crisis. It is clear the adoption of the euro will offset the risks that have been overly amplified in the current market situation. Moreover, the changeover will reinforce the credibility of Estonia's financial system and the banks operating here. To sum up, Estonia's accession to the euro area is the country's short-term economic policy priority, which increases confidence in Estonia's economy. 4  BIS Review 89/2009  Like we have said before, Estonia has all the possibilities for meeting the Maastricht criteria already at the end of 2009.
According to the current outlooks, the economy should stabilise in the second half of this year and it may start growing again either at the end of 2009 or at the beginning of 2010. However, all forecasts continue to be insecure. If our main trading partners' growth recovered faster, it would also give impetus to Estonia's economic activity, whereas a protracted global economic downswing would put a drag on rekindling growth here. Recent days' messages from the world have been slightly more optimistic after several months of bad news. It is thought the large support packages have finally started to render results. This requires even more urgently that countries be ready to take stapes to ensure long-term growth potential. It has happened before in the world that economic crises have been defeated by creating assumptions for a new crisis. Thank you for your attention! BIS Review 89/2009  5