They too cause large losses of income by a large number of people at the same time. In other words, they have all the hallmarks of a dread event, albeit one associated with economic, rather than physical, insecurity. The Great Depression was the most prominent example of an economic dread event in the 20th century. Historical accounts point clearly to it having generated an exaggerated sense of insecurity (Galbraith (1954)). One way this manifest was a surge in demand for safe assets. In Friedman and Schwartz’s words: “Expectations of great instability enhanced the importance attached to accumulating money and other liquid assets”. In the 1930s, this search for safety resulted in a rise in the demand for, and price of, government securities, lowering their yield. The yields on US and UK government bonds fell significantly and persistently during the 1930s (Chart 6). Insecurities revealed themselves in securities. The Great Depression also widened the gap between the return on safe and risky assets such as equities. This wedge – the equity premium – appears to have risen sharply after the Great Depression. It remained elevated for several decades thereafter. In finance circles, this is known as the “equity premium puzzle” (Mehra and Prescott (1985)). Recent academic evidence has argued, persuasively, that this puzzle can be solved by recognising that the Great Depression, and other catastrophic output losses, are dread events which exaggerate and prolong risk perceptions. Catastrophe risk then explains the size and persistence of the equity premium (Cogley and Sargent (2005), Barro (2005)).
The significance of having as our own the world’s second most important currency is not lost upon a central banker. For, beyond its proven economic benefits, the euro signifies the virtual elimination of the potential risk of an exchange rate crisis to which the currencies of small, open economies are exposed on a daily basis in a world characterized by the free movement of capital. We have now traded in this vulnerability for the greater security and credibility afforded by a major international currency. The euro has indeed been a success story in many respects. The disciplines of Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) were intended to promote the creation of a macroeconomic environment in which countries could thrive in an increasingly competitive market place. The euro area’s track record in terms of price stability, trade expansion and employment creation suggest that these expectations have been largely fulfilled. The Central Bank of Malta is, therefore, proud to have become a member of the Eurosystem. From an institution charged with the preservation of price stability in Malta and with safeguarding the integrity of our national currency, the Bank now shares responsibility with the other members of the Eurosystem for shaping monetary policy in the best interest of 320 million people in fifteen countries. This is a task which my colleagues at the Bank and I approach with confidence and enthusiasm. From a national perspective, the challenge now is to maximize the benefits of participation in monetary union by making further progress on the path of reform.