It would make much more sense to implement the best possible measures within a suitable time frame, in order to achieve a significant reduction in the risk to our country as early as possible. I consider that the best possible measures are those which take account of the specific characteristics and risks inherent in our banking structure and have a high impact without incurring too high a cost. The package now before Parliament fulfils these criteria. On the one hand, the proposed measures are rigorously based on tried-and-tested approaches and instruments11 which have been in existence in all developed countries for decades and whose effectiveness cannot be doubted. On the other hand, measures with great potential for unintended consequences have been decisively rejected by the committee of experts and the Federal Council, and not included in the package. Conclusion I am now drawing to the end of my remarks. The failure of a big bank would have enormous and incalculable negative implications for Switzerland – not least because a state bail-out would be unavoidable. This risk is no longer acceptable. That is why strenuous efforts have been made over the past eighteen months to find a solution to the “too big to fail” problem. The Federal Council has recently presented a carefully thought out, balanced package of measures for Parliament’s consideration. 11  6  Regulations on capital, liquidity and risk concentration. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Implementing these measures in full will make an effective contribution to significantly reducing the problem in Switzerland.
As global capacity utilisation increases to a more normal level, demand for Norwegian exports might remain buoyant. A growing number of export enterprises are facing capacity constraints, particularly in the production of metals and refined petroleum products. Export growth in the years ahead will probably occur in industries such as the engineering and shipbuilding industries. Production growth is now high in these sectors, and employment is rising after declining for several years. High growth in the global economy has also pushed up prices for non-oil commodities. Rising commodity prices and buoyant activity in markets that are important for Norway have generated growth impulses to the Norwegian economy. Since May this year, commodity prices have varied  BIS Review 80/2006  3  widely, but on the whole edged up since end-June. International equity markets have stabilised since the turbulence in May, and have edged up since the previous monetary policy meeting. The benchmark index on the Oslo Stock Exchange is now about 15 per cent higher than at the beginning of the year. Interest rates are still low among many of our trading partners, in spite of the increases in several countries as a result of rising energy prices and higher consumer price inflation. In the US, there are now expectations that the rate tightening cycle is nearing an end, and that the policy rate will be lowered in the course of next summer. A rise in key rates is expected over the next year in the euro area, Sweden, the UK, Australia, Japan and Switzerland.