‘MPC two years on,’ speech given at Queen’s University Belfast, 17 May. Levin, A.T., V. Wieland, and J.C. Williams (1999). ‘Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty,’ in J.B. Taylor (ed.) Monetary policy rules, Chicago University Press, pp. 263–299. Levin, A.T. and J.C. Williams (2003). ‘Robust monetary policy with competing reference models,’ Journal of Monetary Economics 50(5), pp. 945-975. McCallum, B.T. (1988). ‘Robustness properties of a rule for monetary policy,’ Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 29, pp. 173–203. Mian, A., L. Straub and A. Sufi (2021). ‘Indebted demand,’ Quarterly Journal of Economics 136(4), pp. 2243– 2307. Onatski, A. and J.H. Stock (2002). ‘Robust monetary policy under model uncertainty in a small model of the US economy,’ Macroeconomic Dynamics 6(1), pp. 85-110. Orphanides, A. (2002). ‘Monetary policy rules and the Great Inflation,’ American Economic Review 92(2), pp. 115-120. Orphanides, A. and S. van Norden (2002). ‘The unreliability of output gap estimates in real time,’ Review of Economics and Statistics 84(4), pp. 569-583. Pill, H. (2010). ‘Monetary policy in a low interest rate environment: A checklist,’ NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 6(1), pp. 335-345. 15  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  15  Rotemberg, J.J. and M. Woodford (1997). ‘An optimization-based econometric framework for the evaluation of monetary policy,’ NBER Macroeconomics Annual 12, pp. 297-346. Sargent, T.J. (1987). Macroeconomic theory, 2nd ed., Academic Press. Svensson, L.E.O. (1999). ‘Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule,’ Journal of Monetary Economics 43(3), pp. 607-654.
Economic activity is therefore expected to remain sluggish and uneven in 2010, with GDP expanding by less than 1.0% in both the euro area and the United Kingdom. 4 Mirroring these expected trends abroad, the Central Bank of Malta’s projections point to a modest GDP growth rate of around 1.0% in 2010. Net exports are likely to contribute negatively to growth, so that the main growth impulse is expected to come from domestic demand, driven by higher investment outlays on infrastructure projects and, to a lesser extent, by a moderate expansion in private consumption. Labour market conditions are unlikely to improve this year, with the unemployment rate remaining above 7%. This subdued growth outlook, together with the expectation that inflation will remain more elevated than in the euro area, will exert downward pressure on disposable income. Overall, therefore, the economic environment facing small businesses in the foreseeable future, both domestically and in our main trading partners, will be less favourable than that which prevailed before the onset of the financial crisis in 2007. 4  2  European Commission Interim Forecasts, February 2010. BIS Review 50/2010  Small businesses access to finance Since SMEs and micro enterprises are typically more dependent on bank financing than larger firms, the ongoing deleveraging of bank balance sheets in many EU countries represents a potential threat. The prospect of a prolonged period of restricted access to both working and investment capital at a time of subdued demand could result in the closure of many enterprises.