We have also made extensive purchases of Swedish government bonds. Although it is difficult to distinguish the effects of different measures on the economy, our assessment is that the impact of monetary policy is essentially functioning as expected. The interest rates charged to households and companies on loans with short maturities have fallen more or less in line with the repo rate. Data from the financial markets also imply that the asset purchases have had the intended effect. Our intention with this expansionary monetary policy has been to increase the rate of inflation so it approaches the target of 2 per cent. As I mentioned earlier, underlying inflation has also shown an upward trend for some time now, at the same time as economic activity has strengthened and the situation on the labour market has gradually improved. But although developments are mainly heading in the right direction, there is still considerable uncertainty. Economic activity became stronger in the euro area, but several countries were still being held back by high indebtedness and as yet unresolved structural problems. The course of events in Greece also entails a tangible risk. If the situation deteriorates, unease may spread to other countries in the monetary union. Uncertainty over how the krona will develop is another risk. The relatively strong fluctuations on the foreign exchange market are making it difficult to assess how the exchange rate will continue to develop. A too strong exchange rate would risk halting the upturn in inflation that has begun.
With regard to the euro area as a whole, optimism among households and companies has been somewhat subdued in recent months, probably as a result of the crisis in Greece. However, the most recent survey in July indicates that optimism among companies is rising again, which may be due to the third loan programme for Greece appearing to be within reach. GDP growth in the euro area in the second quarter, compared with the same quarter last year, was 1.2 per cent according to our forecast. US developments still looking good We see continued signs of good economic growth in the United States. GDP rose by just over two per cent in the second quarter, compared with the same quarter last year, see Figure 7, entirely in line with our forecast. Household consumption remains strong. Exports also rose significantly in the second quarter despite the dollar appreciating for a period of time. The housing market is continuing to recover and this creates an increasing number of jobs. Unemployment fell to its lowest level since 2008. The US Federal Reserve signalled at the end of July that it still has plans to raise its policy rate this year. The labour market is expected to be able to develop better than was previously believed an only a “few” further improvements are needed before monetary policy may need to be tightened. However, although most signs are pointing in the right direction in the US economy, the recent statistics on wage developments have been at relatively low rates of increase.