However difficult the  consequences might be for the economy, the MPC must stay the course and set monetary policy to return inflation to achieve the 2% target sustainably in the medium term, consistent with the remit given to us. With thanks to Rupal Patel for her assistance in preparing these remarks, and to my fellow MPC members and numerous Bank colleagues, including Callum Ashworth, Fabrizio Cadamagnani, Alan Castle, Grace Greer, Thomas Jennings, Josh Martin, Maggie Illingworth, Harry Rigg, Andrea Rosen, May Rostom, Martin Seneca, Bradley Speigner, Boromeus Wanengkirtyo for their many helpful contributions. 1. There is a huge literature on techniques for and applications of the identification of shocks. Different categorisations have been used for a variety of policy purposes. For example whether shocks are common or idiosyncratic was a key consideration for HM Treasury’s 2003 Five Tests assessment of whether the UK should join the Euro. Other common categorisations include are they exogenous or endogenous, are they temporary or permanent and are they positive or negative. 2. I am grateful to my MPC colleague Jonathan Haskel for this international comparison. 3. The latest of a series of puzzles about the structural behaviour of the UK economy. The most well-known is the productivity puzzle which has spawned a huge literature including my own contribution, see The UK’s productivity growth challenge - speech by Dave Ramsden (bankofengland.co.uk). 4.
Prospects for ASEAN economies ASEAN is currently one of the most dynamic and fastest-growing regions in the world economy. The region’s GDP is expected to triple to USD3 trillion by 2017 relative to a decade ago. Economic expansion is expected to be sustained at a rate of 5.8% in the next five years, significantly outpacing global growth. In tandem with this, is the notable rise of the middle class population. The Asian Development Bank estimates that the share of ASEAN’s middle class population is expected to increase to 65% by 2030, consequently contributing to altering the global consumer landscape. With a sizeable population of 600 million people, this underscores the evolving role of ASEAN as a significant consumer market base with distinct needs and increasing purchasing power. Given that the share of the working population in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  ASEAN is estimated to reach 58% by 2050, ASEAN will benefit from its demographic dividend and abundant workforce. An accompanying trend is the rise of entrepreneurship in the region. The emergence of home-grown businesses with prospects of becoming large national and multinational corporations has generated attention and priority to be accorded to supporting the development of small and medium scale enterprises (SMEs). Currently, SMEs account for 50%–85% of domestic employment in ASEAN economies and 30–50% to GDP. Given the substantial contribution to income and employment generated by this sector, its development will be vital in creating employment and sustainable long-term growth in the ASEAN economies.