28  BIS Review 111/2010  Table 3 A Leaning Against the Wind Policy  Policy Rate (% change from 2003Q1) Base  Real Stock of Credit  Real House Prices  (% change from 2003Q1)  (% change from 2003Q1)  Output (% change from 2003Q1)  LATW Base LATW Base LATW Base LATW scenario scenario scenario scenario  United States 2004Q1  1.0  2.9  5.9  5.3  5.5  4.2  4.1  3.7  2005Q1  2.5  4.9  12.2  10.5  13.8  10.0  7.6  6.3  2006Q1  4.5  6.9  19.3  16.4  21.1  14.0  10.9  8.5  2007Q1  5.3  7.0  28.1  23.9  22.2  12.1  12.5  9.0  2008Q1  3.2  3.0  34.7  30.1  16.2  5.0  14.8  10.8  United Kingdom 2004Q1  3.9  5.6  9.7  9.4  17.5  15.3  3.6  3.4  2005Q1  4.8  7.1  21.1  19.7  26.7  18.3  5.5  4.7  2006Q1  4.5  7.1  38.2  34.3  34.7  15.1  9.1  7.3  2007Q1  5.3  7.4  45.3  39.7  43.0  15.0  11.6  9.0  2008Q1  5.3  6.0  55.4  47.2  41.1  5.8  13.7  10.1  BIS Review 111/2010  29  Chart 1 Deviation of Policy Rates from Taylor Rule  5  Percentage points Euro area  4  UK  3  US 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4  -5 2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  Source: OECD.
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