Secondly, it is important that the authority that is given responsibility for macroprudential policy is also equipped with the right tools, that is, given the possibility to intervene at an early stage when risks that could lead to negative effects on the Swedish economy have been identified. Sweden’s place in the global financial system and our domestic conditions mean that we cannot delay any longer in designing a framework for financial stability and macroprudential policy; we need to get this in place as soon as possible. ...and we need an even better analytical base However, to be able to make the best possible analyses and thus design effective tools to counteract the risks of high indebtedness, we also need to have better statistics on household borrowing. This has also been pointed out by both the IMF and the European Commission in their assessments of the Swedish economy.5 As a preliminary step towards improving the analytical base we at the Riksbank have asked the Swedish banks to provide us with data on households’ loans. The data collected by the Riksbank will be used to analyse how vulnerable the Swedish households are and how potential risks are distributed among the population. Finansinspektionen already makes good  5  “Sweden – 2013 Article IV Consultation: Concluding Statement of the Mission”, IMF, 31 May, 2013. “Council Recommendation (COM(2013) 377 final)”, European Commission, 29 May, 2013. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  analyses and have on several occasions gathered random samples among newly-granted loans.
On the downside, concerns remain relating to renewed tensions in some financial market segments and related confidence effects. In addition, a stronger or more protracted than expected negative feedback loop between the real economy and the financial sector, renewed increases in oil and other commodity prices, and protectionist pressures, as well as the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances, may weigh on the downside. With regard to price developments, euro area annual HICP inflation was 1.6% in May 2010, according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, after 1.5% in April. The rise in inflation over recent months mostly reflects higher energy prices. During the second half of this year some further slight increases in HICP inflation cannot be excluded. Looking further ahead, inflation rates should overall remain moderate. Upward pressures on commodity prices may persist, while euro area domestic price pressures are expected to remain low. Inflation expectations over the medium to longer term continue to be firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of keeping inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This assessment is also reflected in the June 2010 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual HICP inflation in a range between 1.4% and 1.6% for 2010 and between 1.0% and 2.2% for 2011. Compared with the ECB staff projections of March 2010, the ranges have been adjusted somewhat upwards, mainly reflecting higher euro prices for commodities. Available forecasts from international organisations provide a broadly similar picture.