Beijing is concerned that in the run-up to the Taiwan Presidential Election in March next year, President Chen Shui Bian may make one last throw of the dice which may compel China to act. How the US handles this issue will be crucial in maintaining stability across the strait. Third, Myanmar cannot return to the status quo ante after the government’s crackdown on monk-led protests. Instability in Myanmar can affect its immediate neighbours and hurt the reputation of ASEAN. National reconciliation and an agreement on phased changes and  BIS Review 124/2007  1  power sharing is the only way to prevent another widespread protest, which may end up in a bloody uprising to bring about change. Therefore, ASEAN and Singapore, and so too China and India, fully support the mission by the UN Secretary General’s Special Advisor, Mr Ibrahim Gambari, to help the various parties in Myanmar work towards genuine dialogue and compromise. However, this compromise is not so easy to achieve. Myanmar’s military rulers, the many ethnic groups and the political players deeply distrust one another. The rulers are also highly suspicious of the outside world. This psyche of distrust was borne out of the violent and divisive history of Myanmar after World War II, its complex national make-up of many diverse ethnic groups and, until the recent agreements on ceasefire, the fighting with insurgents. There is no quick and easy solution. Negotiations will be long and complicated.
4  BIS Review 124/2007