About our external scenario, incoming data show improved performance of exports across sectors (figure 9). Still, examining numbers of the first half, we foresee that the export volumes will contract during the year. However, by 2018 they should recover thanks to improvements in the world economy, which coupled with better prices increase our estimated 5  trade balance for next year. The low comparison base due to the Escondida mine strike downtime early this year will also result in higher mining exports in 2018. Thus, in 2018, the current account deficit should be lower than we expected in September, close to 1% of GDP, similar to our 2017 projection. At trend prices, the current account deficit remains at 2.6% on average in 2017-2018 (table 1). Aside from the scenario I have just described for domestic activity and spending, the convergence of inflation to the target also considers a mild depreciation of the real exchange rate that will cause it to converge from where it was at the closing of this Report to its longterm equilibrium within the projection horizon. The baseline scenario also contemplates that the prices of foods, particularly fresh fruits and vegetables, will return to their normal patterns, so their annual inflation will be rising over the course of 2018. About monetary policy, the Board estimates that in the baseline scenario the surprises that have pulled inflation down below expectations do not compromise the convergence of inflation to the target.
This has prompted several emerging economies to restructure their fuel subsidies in an effort to create more efficient economies and to achieve more sustainable fiscal positions. This has been followed by the consequent adjustments in consumer prices as the gap between international market prices and domestic prices narrow. In Malaysia , petrol prices were adjusted by  BIS Review 90/2008  1  40.6% while diesel prices by 63.3%. This adjustment would be reflected in the consumer price inflation in June, which is expected to exceed 6%. Beginning 1 July, electricity tariffs have also been raised by up to 18% for households and an average of 26% for some commercial and industry users. While domestic inflation is expected to remain elevated for the remaining part of this year and early next year, it is expected to moderate in the second half of 2009. In the current international environment, the policy response needs to be contextualised to the conditions prevailing in each individual economy. In those economies that are experiencing overheating and strong demand conditions, there is greater clarity in terms of the need for policy to rein in demand. However, for economies that are experiencing moderating growth, the risks to growth and inflation need to be carefully evaluated. In addition, consideration needs to be given to the deflationary impact of the fuel price increases on consumption.