Similarly, the current unemployment rate of 9 percent is well above most estimates of the nonaccelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) – the lowest rate of unemployment consistent with sustained price stability. In the pre-crisis period, the NAIRU was likely in the region of 4.5 percent to 5 percent. There are several reasons why the NAIRU may now be higher. First, extended unemployment compensation benefits create incentives for prospective workers to keep looking for better jobs rather than accept less attractive positions. Empirical work on this subject suggests that the NAIRU might currently be roughly 1 percentage point higher because of this factor. However, this effect will only persist for as long as the extended benefits are in place. Second, the rise in unemployment has been associated with an increase in the degree of mismatch between unemployed workers’ job skills and available job vacancies. Some cite the upward shift in the Beveridge curve, which illustrates the relationship between unemployment and job vacancies (Chart 22), as evidence of this effect. Third, the longer that people are unemployed, the more their skills tend to atrophy, which makes it harder for them to become employed in the future. For unemployed workers, the median duration of unemployment has climbed and a growing proportion of the unemployed has been jobless for long periods (Chart 23).
At the end of this month, it is planned to approve the restructuring plans of the banks in Group 1 (those controlled by the FROB), and those of Group 2 (the other banks which will require State aid) will foreseeably be approved before year-end. The restructuring plans envisage the transfer of assets to the asset management company, which will become operational in December, and the recapitalisation of banks which need it. Each bank will  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  have a schedule for implementing the measures that it must adopt, and these are expected to be completed in the first quarter of 2013. Conclusions The State Budget for 2013 represents a substantial effort in terms of austerity. The intended fiscal adjustment is certainly very ambitious, given the ongoing recessionary setting for public finances next year. Central government efforts would be insufficient if not accompanied too by the adjustment to which regional and local government have committed. From the macroeconomic standpoint, some data show progress is being made in rebalancing the Spanish economy. The bulk of the correction has already been made by the current account and it is close to balance in 2012 which, foreseeably, will enable it to run a surplus in 2013. Similarly, we can see improvements in the competitiveness of the Spanish economy both with regard to labour cost indicators and productivity. We forecast that in 2014, and measured by unit labour costs, Spain will have recovered practically all of the competitiveness lost between 1998 and 2008.