On the other hand, the uncertainty stemming from the war in Ukraine as well as the coronavirus lockdowns in China are curbing the development of the global economy. That said, unemployment has continued to decline in many countries. In the advanced economies, it is now back around the low levels seen prior to the pandemic. Since March, there has been a further considerable and broad-based increase in inflation in many countries. The war in Ukraine has been a significant factor here, too, in that the prices of many commodities have risen as a result. In addition, persisting supply bottlenecks have led to further price increases for various goods. In our baseline scenario for the global economy, we assume that energy prices will remain high for the time being, but that there will not be an acute energy shortage in the major economic areas. The positive development of the economy should thus continue overall. Owing to the increased prices for energy and food, coupled with the supply bottlenecks, inflation is likely to remain high for some time. However, the importance of these factors should diminish over the medium term. With monetary policy also becoming increasingly tighter in many countries, inflation is likely to gradually return to more moderate levels. Our scenario for the global economy is subject to significant risks. For example, inflation could rise further and thus weigh even more heavily on real incomes and consumer demand.
The Governing Council welcomes the ongoing work and urges further specific and decisive steps to complete the banking union and the capital markets union. We are now at your disposal for questions. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches