The MPC’s central estimate that QE had a total peak impact on GDP of around 2.5% in 2013 implies that adjusted Bank Rate fell below 0.5% during the depths of the crisis. In the May 2014 Inflation Report the MPC judged that maintaining the stock of asset purchases at £ would provide continued, albeit declining support to activity implying that adjusted Bank Rate is still currently below 0.5%. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  natural rate of interest will not rise to pre-crisis levels which is why we believe increases in Bank rate will be both gradual and limited. Moves in financial markets may also be signalling nervousness in the slow healing story. Financial markets drifted down in the second half of 2015 and they fell quite sharply in the first months of this year. Some of these moves have recovered a bit in the last week or so. But nevertheless current market signals seem to be suggesting a structurally weaker economic picture. UK 10-year real yields are negative. And yield curves are flat as far as the eye can see – the 5-year point on the UK forward market interest rate curve has fallen by around 0.8 percentage points to 1% in the last month.8 It is difficult to identify any really major economic news in 2016 that might underlie this. Rather it may be that markets are shifting to a new perception of the world economy and risks, and of policy-makers’ ability to respond to future challenges.
They have maintained, and in many cases increased, their strength during a prolonged period of financial crisis, at a time of far-reaching change to the banking industry worldwide and important regulatory reforms at home. A large part of this programme of reform has aimed at enabling our banking system to build further on its strengths and to channel them more efficiently. An important theme in the reform programme is the removal of barriers to competition with the aim of driving efficiency and energy in the banking sector. One of the outcomes has been the considerable progress made recently towards the consolidation of banks into institutions of a size and scope that can make them more capable of deploying their strengths in an increasingly globalised environment. The complementary theme in the reform programme is improving and expanding safety measures, not with the aim of sustaining weak institutions, but in order to prevent systemic contagion should a bank run into difficulties and to provide a greater measure of protection to the small depositor. In 1999 we clarified our role as lender of last resort, a measure of some importance in times of economic or financial uncertainty. We have made progress in implementing our risk-based supervisory approach, which is intended to produce a more focused and accurate assessment of the areas of greatest risk to individual institutions - and to take pre-emptive actions.