9  As described, there is more to do in some of these areas. But increasingly the emphasis is on implementation and, with it, assurance – how we supervise firms against these regulatory requirements and hold them to account that identified barriers to resolvability are removed and stay removed. In describing the progress towards end-state resolvability, I want to pick out three areas that will be a focus in the period ahead. (a) Internal MREL The first is internal MREL. One lesson that the crisis brought home is that the distribution of resources within groups matters. While in life, firms might want to run themselves by business lines on a consolidated basis, failure and resolution occurs at legal entity level. It is understandable then that since the crisis that there has been a discernible tendency for host authorities to hold onto more resources, capital and liquidity, or to force activity in branches into subsidiaries. The aim at FSB level with TLAC was to lean against this tendency towards fragmentation of international groups by providing comfort to authorities cross-border, not only that groups would have sufficient external TLAC to be resolvable but also that resources would be prepositioned as internal TLAC in material subsidiaries in host jurisdictions. Previous international regulation of financial resources in groups has, like the Basel Accord, typically focussed more on the consolidated level. Now applying TLAC regulation at legal entity level has brought with it challenges.
With a flexible exchange rate regime, there is nothing new about some depreciation in connection with a cyclical downturn. Numerous examples can be cited from all over the world. Basically, in a small, open economy the exchange rate often functions as a sort of shock-absorber. The problem today is that the krona’s depreciation has occurred from a level that was already weak. This amounts to a further appreciable lowering of Swedish manufacturing’s relative costs and thus an increased profit share. Our experience from the 1970s and 1980s has shown that a weak exchange rate can generate inflationary tendencies. Let us not forget what happened in recent years. When the krona weakened in connection with the crises in Mexico, Asia and Russia, Swedish exports recovered quickly and strongly. During the autumn of 1998 exports dropped, order inflows were weak and forecasts where quickly revised downwards; but just a few quarters later production for export was booming again. So it is reasonable to expect that sooner or later, although just when is not clear, Swedish exports will pick up this time as well. But the terrorist attacks have probably postponed the recovery and perhaps even accentuated the slowdown in the short run. It is important to keep an eye on the exchange rate as well as economic activity. On the domestic scene there are some bright spots. Household disposable income, for instance, looks like rising strongly next year.