ACT is dedicated to promoting awareness of how bias and complexity impede a central bank's ability to achieve its objectives, and to establishing alternative mindsets and methods to confront these challenges. One of ACT's key initiatives, inspired by the learnings in Superforecasting, is implementing a tournament at the New York Fed with the goal of giving Bank staff the opportunity to assess their use of the practices for which Tetlock advocates. In conclusion, models and quantitative tools, like the ones we are discussing, can take us a long way. But they are designed to answer specific questions that are at best strong building blocks to the broader questions that policymakers grapple with. Being rigorous in our evaluation of these building blocks is critical, as is openness to other forms of information and approaches. The insights from Superforecasting are relevant for both the evaluation of specific tools and asking questions not addressed by these tools. Tetlock ends the book with Ten Commandments for good forecasting. However, in the spirit of being humble around forecasting problems, he adds an eleventh commandment: "Don't treat commandments as commandments." A version of this I would like to leave you with is to not treat any particular model or quantitative tool as the whole truth; no matter how sophisticated the underlying technical details may be, keep questioning assumptions about how the economy works and be always open to contradictory information, not just confirming evidence.
•  More specifically: o  structural policies in the Member States are supposed to seek to create flexible and efficient structures in product and labour markets with a view to fostering the growth potential of euro area economies and improving the adjustment mechanisms in EMU;  o  fiscal policies are supposed to ensure the sustainability of public finances, effectively limiting government deficit and debt ratios, thereby also ensuring that automatic fiscal stabilisers work effectively as an adjustment mechanism in the currency union; and  BIS Review 31/2008  1  o  wage policies should be compatible with trend developments in productivity in order to foster full employment and should take into account the overriding importance of wage flexibility as an equilibrating adjustment mechanism in the EMU. •  Within the Lisbon strategy, as refocused and reaffirmed by the European Council in 2005, Member States aim to gear national policies towards micro-economic flexibility and macro-economic stability. This would strengthen the capability of the euro area economy to swiftly re-allocate economic resources in view of exogenous economic shocks and improve its long-term growth prospects. The Lisbon Strategy and the peer surveillance of its implementation at the national level have raised the awareness among governments in European countries that structural reforms are decisive for remaining competitive in an increasingly global economic environment and to fully realising the economic potential of the EMU.