But based on the rapid pace of developments since we published our May forecasts and the shift in the balance of risks I can envisage those conditions for considering tightening being met somewhat sooner than I had previously expected. That reflects my current assessment that on balance I put more weight on my inflationary than my disinflationary scenario. But there should no presumption that the recent strength in demand and inflation will be sustained, and while I do currently put less weight on my disinflationary scenario, it is too early to rule it out. Along with the rest of the MPC I will continue to watch the data and newsflow closely. As and when conditions for considering tightening are met there is also the question of how we might tighten policy. The monetary policy toolbox has come a long way since the days when it contained a single tool, the  13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  13  Bank Rate.6 As the terrain has got more complicated to navigate, the tools have become broader in range and more complex, including Bank Rate, forward guidance and asset purchases. Indeed as things stand we have an asset purchase programme in progress which is not due to complete until the end of the year.
Starting with my first consideration, whether recent strength proves persistent or temporary. Even absent a further impact from Covid, it is unlikely that the current pace of GDP growth can be sustained for much longer. Indeed if current strength represents a bringing-forward of the recovery that we had expected later in the year, then subsequent growth might if anything be expected to be weaker rather than stronger. The very latest indicators suggest the pace of underlying demand growth may indeed be slightly moderating, though as I mentioned previously the read from the latest GDP data itself is clouded by supply constraints. But there are certainly upside risks to household spending, if consumer confidence continues to rise or if households run down their accumulated aggregate savings faster than we have assumed. The current strength in the housing market is suggestive in this regard, both as a potential indicator of household confidence and due to the consumption of things like durable goods that goes alongside housing transactions. One of the early legacies of the pandemic appears to be an increase in the number of people taking advantage of the ability to work more remotely and moving house for lifestyle reasons, a trend which I think could be sustained for some time; like many of the long-term effects of Covid, that is likely to have differential impacts within regions and in different parts of the country.