This can lead to some households borrowing so much that they will experience difficulty in meeting interest and amortisation payments in the future. To avoid this, which would make it more difficult to attain price stability and stable resource utilisation, the interest rate needs to be raised relatively soon. Conclusions Forecasts are always uncertain and both the Riksbank and other analysts make forecasting errors. However, forecasts are a necessary part of the monetary policy conducted in Sweden. This is because monetary policy’s effects on the economy come with a time lag and it is therefore necessary to look ahead to attain the inflation target. Moreover, the forecasts show how the Executive Board was thinking when the monetary policy decision was made, which is an important part of our communication with the general public. One can also note that the forecast evaluations show that thorough forecasts are better than just assuming that developments follow the indications given by an auto-regressive model. The Riksbank uses both models and expert assessments in its forecasting work. The models are necessary if one wants to analyse the effects of different policy alternatives. They also help us to quantify different types of risk scenario. It is sometimes very difficult to formulate a risk scenario so that it can be fed into a model. An example of this is the risk of a financial crisis. Nevertheless, we should have the ambition to quantify the risks that are considered relevant to our monetary policy decisions.
I wish therefore, to commend BancABC for sponsoring the CASE Handbook, which I am sure will provide valuable information to active and potential players on the Stock Market in Zambia. With these remarks, I wish to declare the CASE handbook officially launched. I thank you for your attention. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches