Surveys of manufacturing and services firms rebounded significantly in June, following record lows in April and May, and revenues of small businesses in New York have gradually picked up as well.5 In contrast to these positive signs, we are seeing some indications of a slowing in the pace of recovery in states that are currently experiencing large-scale outbreaks. This is a valuable reminder that the economy's fate is inextricably linked to the path of the virus. A strong economic recovery depends on effective and sustained containment of COVID-19. Turning to the question of what the goals for recovery are: one measure of success is a return to the sustained growth and historically low unemployment that we had attained before the pandemic. I know this seems a long way from where we are today and may seem unreachable during these darkest days of the recession. But history teaches us that the economy can get back to full strength, even after deep downturns. Policy Responses The unique nature of this recession and the uncertainty that comes with it mean that the policy responses—public health, fiscal, and by the Fed—need to be designed to reflect the nature of the pandemic and the challenges it poses to the economy. Although I will focus on events in the United States, it is important to stress that this is a global health and economic crisis. Most other countries are facing similar challenges and are likewise engaged in a range of policy actions.
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