In Norges Bank’s assessment, the outlook for the internationally exposed sector is brighter today than a year ago because the rise in costs has slowed markedly. As mentioned earlier, the decrease in wage growth has been of great importance in enabling us to reduce the key rate towards an international level. We expect inflation to pick up in the first half of 2004. Output and employment will probably grow somewhat more than trend. Again, thank you for giving me the opportunity to deliver this statement. 6  BIS Review 53/2003
Output Gap estimates Moving 4-quarter average, per cent 4  4  2  2 W-H  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4 PF  -6  -6 UC  -8 1981  -8 1983  1985  1987  1989  1991  1993  1995  1997  1999  Source: The Riksbank  BIS Review 111/1999  8  Figure 4. Money market agents’ inflation expectations Per cent  3  3  Feb’96 May’99*  Feb’97  Sept.’99  2  2 Aug.’99 April ’99  Feb.’98  1  CPI  1  Nov.’98*  Mar.’99  0  0  -1  -1  1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  2002  2003  2004  * From Statistics Sweden (otherwise Prospera) Sources: Prospera Reserarch AB and Statistics Sweden  Figure 5. UNDIX with Uncertainty Interval Percentage 12-month changes  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1 1995  -1 1996  1997  1998  1999  2000  2001  Sources: Statistics Sweden and The Riksbank  9  BIS Review 111/1999