At the same time, our increasing dependence on oil and gas increases the vulnerability of the Norwegian economy. We know that neither of these sources will spring eternal. The theme of my speech this evening is how to enhance the resilience of the Norwegian economy. Continued weak growth prospects, but less fear When the financial crisis washed over the Norwegian banking sector in autumn 2008, we were reminded of how dependent we are on the world around us. Nonetheless, the Norwegian economy weathered the crisis well. After about a year, the downturn in Norway was over. Chart 1: Emerging economies are driving oil demand One of the main reasons is that there is strong demand for Norwegian goods in countries where economic growth remains robust. The centre of gravity in the world economy is shifting. In the course of the next few decades, China will most likely be the largest economy in the world. Emerging economies – with China at the forefront – are the main driving force behind the increase in demand for crude oil and other commodities. As a result, prices for Norwegian export goods have remained high, even in the context of declining growth among our traditional trading partners. Chart 2: Strong improvement in terms of trade  1  From Johan Borgen’s novel “De mørke kilder” [The Dark Springs], first published in 1956, Gyldendal Norsk Forlag. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  The emergence of newly industrialised economies has also led to lower import prices in Norway.
Percentage change from previous year 8  8  7 6 5  7  GDP Mainland Norway Employment  6  Average 1990-2001 = 2.8%  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001  Source: Statistics Norway SG 240802  Correlation with world index.