According to various statistical methods, there has been no clear trend for the real exchange rate since the mid1990s (see Figure 7), which may indicate that the long-term value of the krona is close to the average during this period. 20 The period with large current account surpluses can thus not be associated with any tendency towards a real strengthening of the krona. 20  10  Lagerwall and Nessén, 2009. BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 7 Real and nominal exchange rate, TCW index Index, 18 November 1992=100 24  24  22  22  20  20  18  18  16  16  14  14 Sweden - total Sweden -excluding housing  12  12  EU -total EU -excluding housing  10  10 80  82  84  86  88  90  92  94  96  98  00  02  04  06  08  Source: The Riksbank  In this context it is worth noting that Sweden, despite so many years with a large current account surplus, is estimated to have a negative net external position. 21 In other words, the value of Swedish assets abroad is lower than the total value of Swedish liabilities abroad. Last year, Swedish liabilities abroad were 2.5 times greater than GDP. The fact that stocks on both the asset and liability sides are large means that variations in the value of these stocks are important to the development of the external position.
This evening I have tried to present a general account of my preliminary view of some aspects of assessments of the future path of inflation. I look forward to the continued discussion of these matters with my Riksbank colleagues. Our decision about interest rate policy is due at the meeting next Tuesday, 4 December. The result of our discussions will be published the following day, 5 December, as will the fourth Inflation Report of 2001. 4  BIS Review 98/2001