If interest rates are kept at a low level over a longer period, price and cost inflation will eventually pick up and longterm interest rates will rise. Rising wage and price inflation reduces the real value of assets and debt. In isolation, this will naturally benefit individuals and enterprises that have a high debt, while others will see a decline in the value of their savings. At the same time, low interest rates could lead to a rise in property prices and other asset prices. A sharp rise in house prices and advances in stock markets imply a substantial shift in favour of those who are already well positioned in these markets. Many young people will find that the price of entering the housing market is too high. 5  Income less net interest expenditure. 9  BIS Review 92/2000  Cyclical fluctuations, income developments and asset prices will show greater volatility in an economy without a nominal anchor. The policy of devaluation and low interest rates in the 1970s and the beginning of the 1980s contributed to pronounced cyclical fluctuations and sharp variations in property prices. The winners and losers as a result of such instability are to some extent arbitrary. Some will always manage to come out ahead; those who take their profits in boom periods will also be able to secure and withdraw from exposed positions in time. Others - who do not use resources for these activities to the same extent - are often the losers.
After the interest rate increase has been reversed, GDP growth will pick up again. After a period, GDP will approach the level that would have been achieved with an unchanged interest rate throughout the period. The 2 results of analyses in the Bank of England are similar, but the uncertainty, of course, is considerable. The key interest rate is set on the basis of an overall assessment of the inflation outlook two years ahead. Our inflation projections and our views on the balance of risks associated with these projections provide a summary of these assessments. Due to a number of factors, there is considerable uncertainty surrounding the inflation projections. Our knowledge of the functioning of the economy is far from perfect. We base our projections on simulations using the macroeconomic model RIMIMI. As the model is not an exact replica of reality, a forecast error arises. In addition, the different economic mechanisms change. Normally, this occurs gradually, but in some cases the changes may occur quickly. Moreover, it may be difficult to assess the current situation in the light of the information available at any one time. The information is often deficient, both because statistics are published with a lag and data contain measurement errors. We must also make assumptions about a number of factors when working on the projections. The economy will occasionally be exposed to events that cannot be anticipated. The terrorist attacks in the US on 11 September represent such an extreme event.