The level of investment is assumed to remain high next year, before declining somewhat the following year when Ormen Lange and Snøhvit are scheduled for completion. No plans have so far been adopted for new projects of a similar size, but continued high oil prices are expected to contribute to high investment both in exploration and in fields in operation in the years ahead. There are prospects of strong growth in the Government Pension Fund-Global. Given our assumption for oil price developments ahead (oil futures), spending in line with the expected real return on the Fund implies that the structural, non-oil deficit may increase by close to NOK 15 billion at 2006 prices in both 2008 and 2009. With a period of strong expansion in the Norwegian economy, somewhat lower petroleum revenue spending will be in line with the fiscal rule. Our projections are based on the assumption that fiscal policy will generate some stimulus to total demand and output in 2008 and 2009, but somewhat less than the expected return on the Fund would imply. Economic growth in Sweden, the UK and the euro area is high. Economic developments in China and India remain strong. GDP growth in the US and Japan has slowed. Consumer price inflation among a number of our trading partners is high as a result of rising energy prices, but the increase in prices for other goods and services remains moderate. Continued solid growth among our trading partners is in prospect.
As global capacity utilisation increases to a more normal level, demand for Norwegian exports might remain buoyant. A growing number of export enterprises are facing capacity constraints, particularly in the production of metals and refined petroleum products. Export growth in the years ahead will probably occur in industries such as the engineering and shipbuilding industries. Production growth is now high in these sectors, and employment is rising after declining for several years. High growth in the global economy has also pushed up prices for non-oil commodities. Rising commodity prices and buoyant activity in markets that are important for Norway have generated growth impulses to the Norwegian economy. Since May this year, commodity prices have varied  BIS Review 80/2006  3  widely, but on the whole edged up since end-June. International equity markets have stabilised since the turbulence in May, and have edged up since the previous monetary policy meeting. The benchmark index on the Oslo Stock Exchange is now about 15 per cent higher than at the beginning of the year. Interest rates are still low among many of our trading partners, in spite of the increases in several countries as a result of rising energy prices and higher consumer price inflation. In the US, there are now expectations that the rate tightening cycle is nearing an end, and that the policy rate will be lowered in the course of next summer. A rise in key rates is expected over the next year in the euro area, Sweden, the UK, Australia, Japan and Switzerland.