This is not surprising because other countries’ currencies also fluctuate. The krone exchange rate is the price of our currency measured in a foreign currency. Developments in other countries are just as important for the krone as developments in the Norwegian economy. Capital flows freely and flows can change rapidly. This can spill over to exchange rates and interest rates as well as output and employment. The chart shows the effective exchange rate for Norway and a number of other small countries with inflation targeting. Exchange rate fluctuations are approximately the same for Norway, Sweden and Canada, whereas the krone exchange rate fluctuates less than the exchange rate for Australia and New Zealand. Therefore, the krone does not stand out as particularly unstable compared with other countries’ currencies. The forward exchange and options markets have expanded in recent years. A deeper market reduces transaction costs and it is easier to find counterparties. This has provided companies with greater scope for hedging against foreign exchange risk. Instruments that reduce the risks associated with a floating krone are increasingly being used, also in Norway. Hedging against fluctuations in the krone involves costs for businesses. A krone that is stable - but too strong - also entails costs to the economy in the form of low activity. Similarly, a krone that is stable but weak - is a source of high inflation. Petroleum revenues generally provide substantial, but uneven currency inflows into Norway.
The outlook for fortification of the foreign exchange reserves is far less uncertain than before. As a result, there is good reason to re-think the sequencing in the liberalisation strategy with an eye to changed circumstances and market developments, as the Monetary Policy Committee indicated in its August statement. One possibility might be to change the order of events and adopt measures to release pressure from owners of frozen deposits and glacier bonds before lifting controls on long-term obligations. The August 2009 strategy assumed that this particular step would not be taken until after restrictions on long-term obligations had been lifted, at least to some degree. The presence of unstable short-term capital creates a certain risk, however, when the first steps are taken. Another possibility is to hold auctions where non-residents with ISK holdings can exchange them for foreign-denominated bonds that can be traded without restrictions earlier in the timeline than was previously assumed. Still another possibility is the imposition of a gradually declining exit tax, either concurrently or later. One way of releasing frozen ISK assets is to direct them towards domestic long-term investments. Unfortunately, it is difficult at this stage to say with assurance whether, when, how, and in what order these solutions will be adopted. That will be determined in part by the results of the preparatory work currently underway. Foreign owners of frozen short-term assets are not the only parties that must be considered when the capital controls are lifted.