This is associated with oil price trends and external demand. The financial account balance of the private sector will shrink to about 1% of GDP in 2020–2022. As usual, making our decisions, we also factored in risks. We are currently talking a lot about disinflationary factors, and they do prevail for the moment. However, there are also proinflationary risks over the forecast horizon. First, such risks are associated with external factors, which include the world economy and global financial markets. Second, it is hard to exactly assess the extent to which the inflation slowdown in the food market is caused by temporary factors, the timing and the likelihood of the turnaround in their dynamics and the intensity of balancing changes in food prices given the current low base. Third, as we have noted, the aggregate effect of five earlier key rate cuts will be gradual and its estimation will take time. As for the fiscal policy, the situation seems more balanced in terms of its effect on inflation in 2020, given that budget spending, including into the national projects, will be distributed over time. Let me remind you that the next policy meeting of the Board of Directors will also be a core one, same as today. This is associated with the changes in the schedule of the Board of Directors’ policy meetings. We are going to sum up the results of 2019 at our next meeting.
EU level harmonisation often applies to high level principles and minimum requirements, while implementation, additional requirements and enforcement is left to the member states. In practice, this becomes a barrier to integration. An EU bank will be subject to as many different reporting requirements and regulatory relationships as it has countries of operation. For a banking group involved in life insurance and securities trading this number should be multiplied by three. For instance, ABN Amro is rumoured to be dealing with 47 different regulators only in the EU. Second, today’s banking regulation was originally designed to protect the soundness and stability of the national banking system and sometimes even to politically control it. Thus, supervisors as well as central banks have national mandates and responsibilities vis-à-vis their politicians and citizens. This was all fine in the so called good old days of closed national markets. Now, however, it may sometimes be in conflict with the ultimate goal of a single market in financial services. Some of the work needed in these areas has already been started. The Brouwer reports to the Ecofin well describe some of the difficulties. The BSC Task Force on Crisis Management has taken the first steps towards a more structured approach to crisis management of cross-border banking groups, through the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding. CEBS (Committee of European Bank Supervisors) is also trying to take on some of these issues, in particular regarding the convergence of supervisory practices.