The 12-month rate of change of the harmonised index of consumer prices (HICP) fell by 0.8% in September, and underlying inflation, which excludes energy and food prices, stood at 1%. In fact, since 2013, average euro area inflation has also been 1%, less than half the rate observed during the first 10 years of EMU (2.1%). This absence of inflationary pressures and the weakness of demand, along with the deteriorating global environment, led to a further downward revision to the Eurosystem inflation projections, to 1.2% in 2019 and 1% in 2020. In 2021, inflation is forecast to stand at 1.5%, clearly below the monetary policy objective. In turn, the long-term inflation expectations derived from financial markets are at historic lows. In short, the euro area macroeconomic setting is characterised, first, by a downward revision to growth forecasts that were already relatively weak and remain subject to downside risks, owing to the persistence of trade tensions and other geopolitical uncertainties, such as those relating to the final Brexit outcome, and which in some countries of the area, such as Germany, even point to a risk of imminent recession; and, second, by medium-term inflation projections that have also been revised downwards and are well below levels that could be considered compatible with the ECB’s price stability mandate. This is the background to the measures adopted by the Governing Council of the ECB at its September meeting.
The disadvantageous levels of human capital compared with those in other developed economies are apparent in both workers and employers. On Eurostat data, in Spain 40.5% of the self-employed, 35.1% of employers and 32.6% of employees have a low educational level, compared with much smaller percentages (24.8%, 20.1% and 19.8%, respectively) in the euro area as a whole. 6  See, for example, D. Acemoglu and P. Restrepo (2018), “The Race between Man and Machine: Implications of Technology for Growth, Factor Shares, and Employment”, American Economic Review, vol. 108, pp. 1488-1542. 12/18  Spain also has a shortfall in terms of the proportion of the population with profiles related in some way to disciplines such as engineering or mathematics. For example, 9% of university graduates in Spain have qualifications in mathematics, science or IT, compared with 14% in Germany or 11% in the European Union as a whole. It is also foreseeable that the massive eruption of new technologies will result in greater importance being afforded to non-cognitive skills (such as a desire to innovate, self-control, ability to concentrate, or adaptability to a changing environment),7 in which Spain also performs poorly in the international comparison. It therefore seems advisable to rethink the institutional design of the educational system, the content of the curriculum and the learning system itself. In this respect, it is crucial to treat this project of improving human capital as a collective task.