And it proves that the concept of Europe is popular as long as it stops being abstract and takes the form of concrete projects. 2/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  However, during the past 20 years, the euro area has essentially forged ahead through crises, with the creation of the European Stability Mechanism – located in Luxembourg – to help Member States following the Greek crisis in 2012 or the Banking Union in 2014 in response to the Spanish or Irish crises. As it appears that a financial crisis is increasingly distant, general European interest has now waned. This is a serious problem: until now, we have not been able to properly take advantage of the more favourable economic climate in order to prevent a new crisis. And this takes me to our challenges for 2019. II. Our challenges in the face of 2019’s uncertainties A - A slowdown rather than a downturn, in a more fragile environment A word first on the economic environment. At both the global and European level, activity is decelerating, but we are still a long way from experiencing a downturn. In 2019, global growth should at best be in line with 2018’s level – 3.7% according to the IMF – subject to a downside risk. In the euro area,5 according to our latest projections, growth should come out at 1.7% compared with 1.9% in 2018. Although revised downwards, our baseline scenario remains relatively favourable. That said, at the start of 2019, we face three challenges: uncertainty, impatience and isolationism.
1 See Article 127 of The Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. 2 Jean-Claude Trichet, 2014: “Central Banking in the Crisis: Conceptual Convergence and Open Questions on  Unconventional Monetary Policy” Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan; National Association for Business Economics, Vol. 49(2), pp. 74–84, April. www.perjacobsson.org/lectures/101213.pdf 3 Kydland, F. and E. Prescott (1977) “Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans”, Journal of  Political Economy, 85(3), pp. 473–92. 4 Alesina, A. and L. Summers (1993) “Central bank independence and macroeconomic performance: Some  comparative evidence”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 25(2), pp. 151–162. 5 December 2018 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. 6 OECD Economic Outlook, November 2018. 7 Bank for International Settlements: Credit to non-financial corporations from all sectors at market value –  Percentage of GDP. March 2006 – June 2018 (unconsolidated data). 8 “The cost of deficiencies in euro-area economic policy coordination” Quarterly Selection of Articles No. 46,  Banque de France, summer 2017. 9 Address given by Pierre Werner, Luxembourg Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, on 30 September 1965 to the  Belgian Chamber of Commerce in New York. 6/6  BIS central bankers' speeches