One fundamental factor is that households endeavour to make realistic calculations of how much interest expenditure and amortisation they can manage in the long run, not only when interest rates are as low as they are now. Something that can be said to be the flip side of the same coin is that the banks make responsible credit assessments when lending money. If these two basic components are in place, there is a good chance of avoiding an out-ofcontrol situation further ahead, although as I said before there are many other factors that may be important. Finansinspektionen (the Swedish Financial Supervisory Authority) carries  4  BIS Review 138/2009  out very important work here in that they monitor developments in the banks and credit institutions and are prepared to take action if they consider it necessary. Underlying inflation stable around target of 2 per cent The impact of monetary policy on households’ living costs is something that creates large fluctuations in CPI inflation during the forecast period (Figure 5). The fact that the repo rate has been cut heavily over the past year has contributed to a rapid fall in CPI inflation, as changes in households’ mortgage expenditure are included in this index. With effect from autumn 2010, however, the repo rate is expected to rise relatively quickly, which will correspondingly mean that CPI inflation will be close to 4 per cent at the beginning of 2012.
The mechanism is largely the same for the loans in Swedish kronor at longer maturities, which are offered at the repo rate plus a certain premium. By regulating the premium the Riksbank determines how attractive the loans will be compared to the conditions prevailing in the market. The diagnosis that a measure is no longer needed may be difficult to make. Although, for instance, the demand for a particular type of loan may have disappeared, the fact that there is still a possibility to borrow may have a stabilising effect. We will not be in too much of a hurry. And there are at least two items we need to be able to cross off the list before we begin phasing out the measures. We must be able to say with a good degree of certainty that the situation in the financial sector is stable and that it can function normally without support. We must also be in a situation where we expect to be able to attain the inflation target and stimulate the economy sufficiently without the unconventional measures. 8  BIS Review 138/2009  There are other measures that require more active decisions by the Riksbank to be phased out. For instance, the number of counterparties allowed to participate in fine-tuning operations and the list of securities accepted as eligible collateral for credit from the Riksbank. However, it is not self-evident that these measures will actually be phased out.