The experience of previous periods of wide variations in commodity prices indicate that rising prices gradually lead to increased supply and reduced demand. This in turn leads to a fall in prices. Lower futures prices than spot prices for several industrial metals indicate expectations of a price fall. High oil prices over a longer period have boosted petroleum investment. Increased investment activity on the Norwegian continental shelf has accounted for a large share of growth in domestic activity in recent years. There is substantial uncertainty associated with future petroleum investment. The emergence of new, smaller companies will probably contribute to a steady level of investment in a number of small and medium-sized projects in the period ahead. Petroleum investment is expected to remain at a high level in the years ahead, but growth is expected to be more moderate. According to the fiscal rule, the spending of petroleum revenues over time shall be in line with developments in the expected real return on the capital in the Government Pension Fund – Global, estimated at 4 per cent. In the National Budget for 2007, it is estimated that the real return on the Government Pension Fund – Global, measured in NOK, will increase sharply in the years ahead. Oil futures prices are higher than assumed in the National Budget. On the other hand, new forecasts from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate show that petroleum production in the next few years may be significantly lower than assumed in the National Budget.
2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  In the exercise of their supervisory mandate, central banks can contribute to this by reconciling the need for openness and support for innovation, which is inherent to an economy integrated into world trade for the benefit of consumers, with their fundamental mission as guarantors and promoters of sound risk management. But they can also contribute through their two other traditional channels, namely as a catalyst and a provider of settlement services in central bank money. A- I believe that this catalyst role is important in the field of retail payments. Commercial bank money is the predominant settlement asset in France, even though the use of banknotes and coins remains significant in this country, as in most of the European Union. This variety of means of payment, based on settlement assets that can be exchanged at any time at par, is an advantage that I believe should be preserved for several reasons: on the one hand, because of the financial inclusion responsibility, since the most vulnerable populations are also the least banked; but also with a view to diversifying risks, in the event of a widespread failure of electronic payment systems. However, it is commonly believed that in Europe there is a risk of a fragmentation of cashless means of payment and a dependence on dominant foreign players that benefit from the effects of global networks.