Much progress has been made in making the U.S. financial system safer and less prone to 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  panics. Still, there is more to do before we can say that we have ended “too big to fail.” This is work that we absolutely must complete. In particular, U.S. bank holding companies must do more to make their organizations resolvable under either Title I bankruptcy or Title II resolution. This requires having clean parent holding company structures, less corporate complexity, and essential service and support operations that are able to continue to operate even when the parent company becomes non-viable. Also, while there has been significant progress in terms of developing a workable resolution regime—the Single Point of Entry regime established under Title II of the Dodd-Frank Act—we still have to ensure that this regime can be safely utilized on a cross-border basis. This requires fully implementing the TLAC framework, and defining more explicitly the expectations and responsibilities of the different supervisory and regulatory oversight bodies that would have to work together internationally. In particular, this includes how liquidity would be provided to an insolvent firm during the early stages of resolution, so that the firm’s operations could be wound down in an orderly way without destabilizing the global financial system. Finally, I would like to address the issue of bank culture and conduct. Although there has been considerable effort here, there is still much more to do. Banks must restore their trustworthiness.
Since the end of the Great Recession almost six years ago, U.S. growth has averaged a somewhat disappointing 2.3 percent. But growth has picked up recently, and the latest Blue Chip forecast is for growth to average slightly below 3 percent over the next year. There are good reasons to think that a period of stronger growth can be sustained. •  Household balance sheets are in much improved condition, with total household liabilities well below their 2008 peak, and debt service burdens at the lowest share of disposable income in more than 30 years. Moreover, consumers are benefitting from the positive wealth effect of higher house and equity prices. •  Labor market improvement has picked up pace, with payrolls gains over the last several months the strongest since the mid-1990s. Workers are finally beginning to see at least modest real wage gains. And the U.S. unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest level since mid-2008. •  The recent drop in oil prices is providing a significant boost to household spending power with nearly a percentage point increase to real disposable incomes. •  The housing sector is now in much better balance. The inventory-sales ratio for homes is near, or even slightly below, levels typically considered “normal,” and there has been a significant drop in the fraction of households carrying mortgage balances in excess of the value of their homes. •  The fiscal restraint that has held back growth in recent years has given way to a more neutral posture.