All in all, it appears that GDP growth abroad will continue to be high this year, albeit somewhat lower than last year. In coming years, too, the prospects for continued high global growth are bright. The fast productivity growth in Asia seems able to continue and thereby give added fuel to world trade. A number of countries are conducting expansionary economic policy, which also will contribute to a rise in resource utilisation. This is essentially the same assessment of international economic activity that we made in June. We may need to take account of the fact that the effects of the hurricanes in the Mexican Gulf will dampen growth in the United States somewhat in the near term. When the rebuilding process gets going, however, it should contribute to somewhat higher growth. It is of course difficult to estimate the economic effects of such a catastrophe, but most indications are nevertheless that the effects on the US economy will not last that long. Uncertainty surrounding the oil price and its effects One factor that has not developed in line with our assessment in June is the oil price. In June, we estimated that the oil price would have fallen back to under 50 dollars per barrel in August. Instead, it rose to new record highs during the summer. It is true that it has dropped somewhat recently but it is still above our previous forecast. Even the expected future oil prices, the forward rates, have risen.
However, we have not yet been able to see any marked increase in employment since average working hours have risen. When there is an upturn in the economy existing staff are initially used more intensively, and only at a later stage do firms add to their workforces. Labour market indicators, however, are pointing to a gradual pick-up in employment. For instance, the number of redundancy notices is dropping and the number of new job vacancies is increasing. Relatively strong growth in domestic demand in the period ahead, in combination with the fact that it should become increasingly difficult for companies to boost output without also adding to their workforces, means that we foresee a rise in the demand for labour in the coming years. The Government’s recently announced labour market policy programmes for next year can be expected to entail that total employment will increase considerably more than regular employment. But there should also be a rise in the number of regular jobs, among other things in construction, the public sector and the private services sector. It is, as always, difficult to assess how total capacity pressures in the economy will develop in coming years, and thereby what inflation impulses we may expect from wage formation and companies' price-setting behaviour. Cost pressures have recently been low, which is partly due to the relatively high productivity growth. However, the reasons behind this are not entirely clear, which makes the assessment of future productivity growth more difficult.