52 For example, Dauth, Findeisen, Südekum and Woßner (2017). 53 IMF (2017). 49  13  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  13  technology than their positive longer-term effects on pay, productivity and the demand for new goods and jobs. It is the balance of these two effects, each large in gross terms, which will ultimately determine where unemployment will settle. 54  No one could say with confidence today the long-run net effect will be. What can be said with confidence is that the scale of gross displacement may be larger than ever-previously. This means that, if technological unemployment is to be avoided, positive effects on productivity, goods and jobs will also have to be commensurately larger. That has led some to argue that technological unemployment is more likely this time around. 55  Even if it is avoided, the societal costs of transition could well be larger, in terms of rising wage inequality, a falling labour share and damage to social cohesion. And if that recessionary impact of technological change on individuals and societies is sufficiently large, it could well call into question the merits of having pursued the creative course in the first place. Or that, at least, is the lesson of history. What experience since the Industrial Revolution has taught us is that this risk can be mitigated by an appropriate institutional response.
Since at th  least the middle of the 19 century, the Bank of England has become one of the key institutional safeguards against recession risk and financial crisis. 41  Indeed, today, those roles are defined in statute. Non-state institutions have also played an important role in protecting those facing the adverse side-effects of economic change. This included many religious, philanthropic and charitable organisations and citizen th  movements that emerged from the 18 century onwards, often as a direct response to hardship brought about by technological change. These institutions offered, and many continue to offer, a combination of financial, housing, training and emotional support to those in need. 39  Clark (2009). Figures refer to government command of output as a percentage of GNP in England. Other 19th century legal changes that supported individuals from adverse side-effects of economic change included recognition of limited liability companies and constraints on the ability of courts to sentence debtors to prison. 41 Anson et al (2017), for example, discuss the emergence of the Bank of England as lender of last resort. 40  11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  11  To mention one, the Young Men’s Christian Association (YMCA) was founded in 1844, at around the time of Engels’ pause. It was established explicitly to meet the housing and social needs of young men who had moved from rural towns and villages to find work in factories in the cities.