About the monetary policy rate, at the statistical cutoff of this Report market expectations showed differences in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  the expected path for 2015. The surveys indicated that the MPR would remain in 3 percent throughout this year, to rise during 2016. Meanwhile, the prices of financial assets suggested that it should be raised during the second half of 2015. As a working assumption, the MPR is assumed to follow a trajectory that is somewhat above what is implicit in the surveys (figure 10). As is usual in our projections, the baseline scenario reflects those events estimated to be the most likely to occur with the information at hand at the close of this Report. There are risks, however that, if materialized, may reshape the macroeconomic scenario and, therefore, may alter the course of monetary policy. Abroad, there are several elements that might trigger new episodes of volatility in world financial markets, with significant effects on credit costs, currency parities and the short-term inflation outlook. On one hand, important surprises regarding the timing and the speed with which the Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark rate may cause significant volatility in global financial markets, pushing interest rates up and further appreciating the dollar. In such a scenario, one cannot rule out that, additionally, we observe an abrupt portfolio rebalancing, given the low level of long-term interest rates and the high stock prices in the United States.
Distinguished Guests, Another major risk to the inflation outlook is a sharper than expected slowdown in global economic activity, which, in turn, could lead to further volatility in financial markets. The eventual impact of financial turmoil on global economic activity triggered by mortgage loans in the US economy is yet to be seen. These uncertainties have been dampening the risk appetite and thus slowing capital flows to emerging economies. The CBT will not react to temporary fluctuations in financial markets. Yet, we will not hesitate to tighten monetary policy in case of a significant worsening in the overall pricing behavior. Under current liquidity conditions, I believe it is useful to note that the Central Bank has the resilience to implement a strong monetary tightening within a short time. The recent cuts in the amount of foreign exchange auctions, reduced FX borrowing of the Treasury and the increase in demand for money has led to a decline in the withdrawal of excess liquidity in the overnight market. The said tendency is expected to persist in the upcoming period, which will thus lead to relatively tighter monetary conditions. This framework not only allows the Central Bank to perform more resilient and efficient liquidity management but also to adopt tighter monetary policy without the need for a Monetary Policy Committee Meeting.