This highly uncertain setting is also reflected in the dispersion among experts in the oneyear economic outlook for the euro area. This dispersion is very high in the case of GDP – close to the levels observed in the 2008 financial crisis – and stands at an all-time high in the case of the one-year inflation outlook. 3. The role of economic policy In response to the inflationary episode, the ECB has accelerated the process of normalising its monetary policy The sharp rise in inflation prompted the ECB to respond by embarking on a process of monetary policy normalisation in late 2021. In March we discontinued net purchases under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP). On 1 July, once the conditions set out in our forward guidance had been met, we brought an end to the net purchases under 7  the asset purchase programme (APP). In late June, we raised interest rates by 50 basis points (bp), thereby exiting negative territory for the first time since 2014. September saw a further increase of 75 bp, the biggest hike in the history of the euro. In July we also approved a new instrument, the “Transmission Protection Instrument” (TPI). Subject to fulfilling the criteria established, under the TPI we will be able to make secondary market purchases of securities issued in jurisdictions experiencing a deterioration in financing conditions not warranted by the economic fundamentals, to counter risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism to the extent necessary.
The circumstance that some households are willing to put off the payment of capital gains tax until the future could be a sign that the ongoing level of taxation is too low in comparison to the level of taxation from a sale. All of this makes it important to make structural reforms in housing and tax policy. Our politicians urgently need to address the problems that have arisen and take a long-term socio-economic view of the housing market. 21  0.75 per cent of the tax value with a ceiling of 7,812 kronor. 22 22 per cent. 7 [13]  The macroprudential policy measures have had the intended effect I support the measures taken by Finansinspektionen to manage the risks inherent in household indebtedness. Amortising mortgages is not unusual internationally. After all, a mortgage is a loan and should therefore be repaid. Sweden has previously stood out in international comparisons concerning amortisation culture and the high proportion of interest-only loans. 23 It is therefore reasonable that Finansinspektionen has introduced amortisation requirements. The amortisation requirements have, however, come in for some criticism. One of the arguments is that first-time buyers without high incomes and wealth are excluded from the market, which ultimately also affects new construction and the construction sector. Naturally, it is correct that the macroprudential policy measures affect the borrowing potential of mortgage borrowers. But this is also part of the actual point of the measures. All other factors being equal, amortisation requirements must also have a restraining effect on the development of prices.