It was introduced to the economic forecasting literature by Robertson, Tallman, and Whiteman (2005), and used more recently by Altavilla, Giacomini, and Costantini (2014), among others. So, what do the tilted survey distributions look like, and how large are the discrepancies with the original probability distributions? Slide 13 shows the results for year-end 2018 using two survey dates: December, shown in the left panel, and January, in the right. For each panel, the red line shows the probability distribution averaged across respondents. The vertical gold and gray lines show the survey-implied mean and the market-implied value for the policy rate, respectively. The blue line shows the tilted distribution.54 We see that the amount of tilting required for the January survey is very small in comparison to that needed for the December survey. For December, the tilted distributions are very different from the original distributions, with the probabilities in the lowest bin roughly tripling. How do we interpret the difference between the original survey distribution and the tilted distribution? If we assume that the marginal investor and the average survey respondent share the same probability distribution, this difference loosely captures the additional premium or discount associated with future interest rate outcomes. Under this interpretation, the cost of insuring against low policy rate outcomes fell from December to January, because less tilting is required in January than in December, a conclusion consistent with the change in estimated model-based risk premia.
Encik Abu Hassan Alshari Yahaya: Towards a more inclusive financial system Speech by Mr Encik Abu Hassan Alshari Yahaya, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia (Bank Negara Malaysia), at the OKU Awareness Programm “Towards a More Inclusive Financial System”, Kuala Lumpur, 26 May 2015. *  *  *  Bridging the understanding on the needs of OKUs and preparing for the changing landscape due to higher expectation and enhanced legislation As the Malaysian financial sector matures and with the long term vision for an inclusive financial system, today’s program with the objective of enhancing awareness and understanding of the rights and requirements of the community of the OKU and how the financial industry could serve them better, would mark the beginning of this important journey at industry wide level. As mentioned by Yang Berhormat Senator Puan Bathmavathi earlier, currently there are about 338,000 registered OKU in Malaysia or 1.1% of Malaysia’s total population. While the official data may be small, the actual number of Malaysians with disabilities is deemed to be more than what is reported. In addition, this number will increase as more Malaysians may fall into this category with the ageing process, becoming casualties of accidents and those suffering from chronic diseases.