Memo to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,  December 14, 2000. 5 The first instance was the May 2001 Bluebook. 6 Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams. Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest. Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Finance and Economics Discussion  Paper Number 2001-56. November 2001. 7 Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams. "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest," Review of Economics and Statistics 85, no.4 (November 2003): 1063-70. 8 Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams, "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest Redux," Business Economics 51, no. 2 (April 2016): pp. 57-67. 9 Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach, and John C. Williams, "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants," Journal of International  Economics 108 (May 2017): S59-S75. 10 These issues are discussed in detail in "Adapting the Laubach and Williams and Holston, Laubach, and Williams Models to the COVID-19 Pandemic," and "Measuring the  Natural Rate of Interest After COVID-19," by Kathryn Holston, Thomas Laubach, and John C. Williams. 11 Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest. 12 Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford. 13 Note that we no longer produce HLW estimates for the United Kingdom because the model does not provide a good fit for the data. The estimates for the UK were highly  imprecise even before the pandemic and the subsequent data has exacerbated this problem. 14 Thomas Laubach and John C. Williams.
This requires many steps, including systemic risk oversight and solving the so-called too-big-to-fail problem. In this respect, we need to think hard about what we can do to prevent the type of speculative bubbles that occurred from causing so much damage in the future. In particular, are there macro prudential tools that the Federal Reserve and other regulators can use to limit leverage and speculation and thus prevent the type of asset price booms and busts that have proved so troublesome? Second, we need viable exit strategies from this recent period of monetary and fiscal policy stimulus. On the monetary policy side, we have been working hard to ensure that we have the tools in place so that we can be effective in tightening monetary policy when the time is right, even with an enlarged balance sheet. Third, we need a rebalancing of global economic growth. That means a smaller share of consumption relative to GDP in the United States and offsetting shifts in Asia. Circumstances have improved considerably from what they were a year ago. But job creation is still much too slow and we have much to do on the regulatory side to make our financial system more resilient and robust. Thank you very much for your kind attention. I would be happy to take a few questions. 5  Financial Market Turmoil: The Federal Reserve and the Challenges Ahead, William C. Dudley. Federal Reserve Bank of New York, March 6, 2010.