As of late June, the annual decline in actual registrations is estimated to have eased, such that the level of actual registrations was 11.4% down on the figure a year earlier. Should the epidemiological situation not change significantly, the recovery observed in Q2 will continue over the summer and give rise to high quarter-on-quarter growth in Q3. Nonetheless, interpreting this growth calls for caution, since we should not lose sight of the fact that the level of activity will continue to be significantly below that observed prior to the pandemic breaking, such that the process of recovery will be far from complete. We can thus talk of an incomplete recovery, using the first of the three adjectives I referred to at the start of my address. The conditioning factors I mention for the short-term outlook to materialise - the absence of any material changes in the course of the pandemic in Spain - are no minor matter. Indeed, economic developments would be adversely affected in the coming months, perhaps severely so, if the outbreaks seen in recent weeks in different territories after the easing of the restrictions on movement could not be controlled with local-level and temporary measures. Accordingly, health-related uncertainties will persist for some time until effective treatment for the illness or widespread access to a vaccine against the virus are achieved. Moreover, the doubts over economic developments in the coming quarters are not confined to the health area.
While these developments are likely to further reinforce the strong intra-regional trade and investment linkages that are already in place, a key aspect of the increased financial integration in Asia is the need for more efficient intermediation of funds within the region. This includes the mobilizing and channeling of some part of the sizeable savings in Asia to productive investments. The average savings rate in Asia is 35% of GDP and Asia as a group has a total of about USD5 trillion in foreign reserves. Even if we invest 1% of this amount, the impact would be significant. With further liberalisation of the financial sector and the capital account, and the increased linkages of the national payment systems in Asia, financial flows within the region is envisaged to increase. This trend is reinforced by the increased presence of regional institutions in the individual countries’ domestic financial systems and Asia’ s favourable economic prospects and the increasingly more developed and sophisticated financial markets. This region has already experienced an increase in intra-Asian financial flows. One should expect that given the uneven growth paths across economies in the next few years, issuances out of the emerging economies, in particular Asia, will also likely assume greater importance as an asset class. The greater variety of asset classes would contribute to the stability of the international financial system. It will also provide a wider range of options for investors and borrowers and thus, contribute to a more efficient allocation of financial resources across borders.