As a famous economist once said, monetary policy seems to operate with “long and variable” lags. More significantly, the MPC isn’t concerned solely with inflation. It is also asked to avoid “undesirable volatility in output”. And occasionally – in particular following shocks to costs or supply – there are trade-offs between the two. These can lengthen the optimal time over which to bring inflation back to target. I think this had real relevance at the time I joined the MPC, in mid-2011. At that time, the economy looked a bit like the starting point of these simulations. After a tepid recovery there was still plenty of spare capacity in the economy. Companies said they were operating well below capacity; unemployment was still high. But thanks to a series of cost shocks, including the big depreciation of sterling’s exchange rate 2-3 years earlier, inflation was nonetheless well above target. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  In response, the MPC might have behaved like Committee A, ramming up interest rates to get inflation back to 2% as quickly as possible. But that would almost certainly have pushed the economy back into recession. Instead it took a more balanced approach. As I tried to explain in a speech I gave later that year, the MPC had arguably tolerated the (then) high rate of inflation for longer than it might have done because the real side of the economy was so weak. It signalled this choice more explicitly in early 2013.
It has served the UK well for two decades, and has led the way in many areas of innovation. But similar drivers to those behind the PSF mean it too now needs a thoroughgoing refresh to meet the next wave of challenge. Consultation on our vision recently concluded; and, although we are still processing the results of that exercise, it is already clear 3  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  3  that our proposals to boost access, resilience, interoperability and user functionality have received strong support from old and new market participants alike. So it seems likely that, in the next few years, the UK will have a new payments infrastructure for retail and wholesale payments alike. To have got this far so fast is a real achievement. But in truth the real work for the PSF has only just begun. The challenge now is to translate the high level aspirations in this document into something much more concrete. That means delivering a retail payments design that is technically feasible, secure, and aligned with the Bank of England’s settlement models. It also means identifying who will build, and pay for, the new system: no small challenge at a time when the industry faces many competing demands on its resources. Though the Bank of England has not been a formal member of the PSF, we have been an active observer of proceedings throughout the past year. And we will remain closely involved with the next stage of the Forum’s work too.