Whilst these may appear to be self-indulgent memories, the comparison of the economy then and now does provide a thoughtful backdrop for what I want to discuss with you this evening. Compared with the economy in the 70s, maybe things aren’t as bad now as we sometimes like to believe! The first topic I want to cover will be what central banks can do to help achieve the holy grail of low inflation, stable growth and full employment. In particular I will take a monetary approach to explaining the issues. Second, I want to talk about the monetary policy decisions facing us right now and explain my own recent voting position. Third, I want to give an update on our latest initiative, the “Funding for Lending Scheme”. Money and the balance sheet of the central bank In the Acknowledgements to his 1988 classic “A Brief History of Time”, Stephen Hawking notes that he was told that each equation he included in the book would halve its sales. He only included one.1 You may be relieved to hear that there are no equations in this talk tonight. But I mention this because I am going to refer regularly to something which has been empirically proven to send some journalists to sleep faster than counting sheep. The Bank of England’s balance sheet. I hope you are all still awake? Good, because the Bank’s balance sheet is actually where all the action is.
I will say more on the causes of deflationary forces a bit later, but this analysis partly explains why the Bank of England has also been engaged on special operations to support the liquidity, funding and capital positions of the banks through,  8  See for example, FR Glahe, (1977) “Macroeconomics Theory and Policy”, 2nd edition, publ: Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. 9  The definition of M4 can be found here: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/Pages/iadb/notesiadb/ m4.aspx  4  BIS central bankers’ speeches  respectively, the Special Liquidity Scheme, the Funding for Lending Scheme and the capital recommendations by the FPC. What of our ability to influence credit markets directly? I want to argue that it largely reflects how we go about changing the supply of money. On the one hand, to increase the quantity of money in scale, quickly and safely, it is quite clear that gilts are the best instrument to buy: there is a large market and there is no resultant private sector credit risk taken by the public sector. Many financial instruments tend to be priced by reference to the interest rates on sovereign debt and so changing gilt yields will have effects across sterling markets. In addition to buying gilts to inject money, we can consider two other ways to affect credit markets. First we can buy financial instruments outright. If particular markets have become dysfunctional so that general monetary expansion doesn’t help, relatively small amounts of direct purchases may unblock the relevant markets.