The third issue is whether the rise in commodity prices will turn out to be persistent and, if so, how this might impact the inflation outlook. Recently, commodity prices have risen sharply. For example, the spot GSCI – a broad measure of commodity prices – has risen more than 35 percent over the past year. This was in train before the upheavals in the Middle East raised market concerns about potential disruption to oil supplies, pushing energy prices – though not other commodity prices – still higher. Commodity price pressures are pushing measures of headline inflation above measures of core inflation, which exclude food and energy prices. How worried should policymakers be about this development? Although there have been commodity price cycles in the past, commodity prices have not consistently increased relative to other prices, and indeed have declined in relative terms over the very long term. Historically, if commodity prices rose sharply in a given year, it has been reasonable to expect that these prices would stabilize or fall within a year or two. This property has been important because it has meant that measures of current “core” inflation, rather than current headline inflation, have been more reliable in predicting future headline inflation rates. In contrast, over the past decade, commodity prices generally have been on an upward trend. For example, as shown in Chart 25, fuel prices have generally been in a rising trend since 1999 and non-fuel prices since 2001 – both trends interrupted temporarily by the financial crisis.
Governor Veerathai’s Statement Your Excellency, Fellow Governors, Ladies and Gentlemen, Members of the press,  A very good afternoon to you all,  It is my great pleasure to welcome our distinguished guests to this special event before the year ends. Let me extend a very warm welcome to Governor Agus and Governor Muhammad Ibrahim who have both travelled to Bangkok specifically for this occasion. The year of 2016, which is coming to the end soon will be remembered by economists and financial professionals as a year of the unexpected, beginning from China's circuit breaker in the very first week of the year, to negative policy rates, to Brexit and the US elections. Greater uncertainties now hang over the global economy. Fortunately, our ASEAN region, with its high potential, is a bright spot in the world. This is therefore 1  time for us to navigate today’s uncertainties through our concerted efforts to bring out the potentials of our ASEAN region. What we are witnessing here today is a renewal of the spirit of regional integration by relying more on collaboration to serve as a key driver for sustainable growth to benefit all of us. The MoUs that we are about to sign will provide flexibilities on foreign exchange regulations for the settlement of trade and investment in local currencies, resulting in greater efficiency and convenience for businesses. Another key merit of this framework is that businesses will be able to better manage exchange rate risks.