BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 3:  Chart 4:  Bank estimates of the level of GDP(c)  Output per head in the UK energy extraction industry  Index: 2008 Q1=100 104 Data  Fitted trend  Labour productivity, index 2008=100 180  102 160  100  140 120  98  100  96  80  94 Latest ONS data  60 40  92  20  90 2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  0  2011  1987  1991  1995  1999  2003  2007  2011  Source: ONS and Bank calculations. Source: ONS (including the Labour Force Survey) and Bank calculations. (c) Chained-volume measures. The fan chart depicts an estimated probability distribution for GDP over the past. It can be interpreted in the same way as the fan charts in Section 5 of the August 2011 Inflation Report. (a) Calculated using Workforce Jobs sectoral employment splits scaled to match total LFS employment levels. (b) Trends are calculated over the periods 1987 Q1 to 2005 Q4 and 2006 Q1 to 2011 Q2  Chart 5:  Chart 6:  Measured productivity and an estimate of trend underlying productivity, based on the BCC survey of space capacity within firms in private services (ex. finance). Measured productivity and an estimate of trend underlying productivity, based on the BCC survey of space capacity within firms in manufacturing.
The credit for this goes mainly to the Ministry of Finance. We, as a Central Bank, try to contribute to this process in the best possible way. The formal launch is a matter of decision by the government. I see no reason why this should not happen within the current month. Preconditions The third topic that I will touch on is: What are the conditions for the tasks I talked about to be successfully completed and thus to successfully complete the entire process of joining the euro area? The short answer to these conditions is contained, in my opinion, in one word: "consolidation" with three important dimensions – political, institutional and fiscal. 3/5  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  Political consolidation means a functioning parliament and a regular government with clearly defined and consistently implemented priorities, and joining the euro area must definitely be one of these priorities. Institutional consolidation means ambitious reforms to address the still serious institutional deficits in the country and achieve the much-needed institutional convergence. Perhaps biased, but I will give an example with the BNB. In 2014-2015, the Central Bank, and the banking sector as a whole, were the subject of sharp political attacks and heated political discussions. Among other things, one of the main reasons was precisely the institutional deficits in the banking sector. It was about both the state of banking supervision and the lack of an institutional framework for solving problems in the banking sector.