Headline inflation – which was negative as recently as December 2020 – has risen by 9.4 percentage points from its trough during the pandemic to its peak last month. Core inflation has risen by 4.1 percentage points. In the recent past, elastic global supply has meant that shocks to production or energy have dissipated eventually. Following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in the 1990s, for example, oil prices fell below their pre-war level after around five months. And following the Japanese earthquake and nuclear disaster in 2011, production is estimated to have returned to normal after only seven months for Japanese firms. [4]  But the shocks triggered by the pandemic and the war have also created what I have previously called a “new global map” of economic relationships. [5] The economic turning points on this new global map imply that supply constraints are likely to last longer than in the past. And this means, in turn, that it is taking longer for the inflationary effects of those shocks to fade out. Two issues are worth considering here. First, geopolitics have shaken up European energy markets. The cut in gas supplies owing to the Russian invasion has become a major structural change which will have ramifications for several years. For example, following the two oil shocks of the 1970s – the OPEC embargo and the Iranian revolution – the effect on oil prices was still persistent after three years.
Boehm, C.E., Flaaen, A. and Pandalai-Nayar, N. (2019), “Input Linkages and the Transmission of Shocks: Firm-Level Evidence from the 2011 Tōhoku Earthquake”, The Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 101, No 1, MIT Press, March, pp. 60-75. 5. Lagarde, C. (2022), “A new global map: European resilience in a changing world”, keynote speech at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, D.C., 22 April. 6. Hamilton, J.D. (2011), “Historical Oil Shocks”, NBER Working Paper Series, No 16790, National Bureau of Economic Research, February. 7. Bachmann, R. et al. (2022), “How it can be done”, ECONtribute Policy Brief, No 34. 8. Kuik, F., Morris, R. and Sun, Y. (2022), “The impact of climate change on activity and prices – insights from a survey of leading firms”, Economic Bulletin, Issue 4, ECB. 9. McKinsey (2021), “How COVID-19 is reshaping supply chains”, 23 November. 10. During US recessions from the 1950s to the 1980s, inventory investment accounted for 1.4 percentage points of the average 2% peak-to-trough decline in real GDP. See Piger, J.M. (2005), “Is the Business Cycle Still an Inventory Cycle?”, Economic Synopses, No 2, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. 11. Lagarde, C. (2022), “Monetary policy normalisation in the euro area”, The ECB Blog, 23 May. 12. The Governing Council has (i) decided to flexibly reinvest maturing securities under the pandemic emergency purchase programme, and (ii) launched a new transmission protection instrument. 13. These are the median figures across recessions. 14.