Christian Noyer: Demographic shifts – threats or opportunities? Opening remarks by Mr Christian Noyer, Governor of the Bank of France and Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Bank for International Settlements, at the Montreal conference: “Demographic shifts – threats or opportunities?”, Montreal, 11 June 2012. *  *  *  Ladies and gentlemen, It is a real pleasure for me to open this session of the Montreal conference on demographic shifts. I am no demographics expert, you know, but I will try to give my opinion of central banker on this extremely important matter. There is no major uncertainty as to the demographic shifts that are in progress. We already have a clear idea of the likely demographic trends for the coming decades and, even more importantly, of their age and geographical breakdowns. We must capitalise on this knowledge to analyse the potential impacts of these shifts and determine how they could contribute to decision-making. In that regard, I would like to raise a few points that are relevant to central bankers. I will focus on the case of developed countries and more particularly on Europe, where demographic developments are mainly driven by the combination of longer life expectancy and a low fertility rate. As regards the latter, it is comforting to note that this rate in France and Canada is less problematic than those in most economies of the same group. When considering demographic developments, much attention is paid, legitimately, to public debt issues.
Dear bank executives, More than three years on from the crisis start, global economy’s perspective to leave this crisis behind remains unclear. Nonetheless, this is about a gradual and long process. Overall, financial institutions, in Europe and beyond, continue to face with the following:   High uncertainties as regards exposure value in sovereign debt securities;    Difficulties to ensure liquidity in wholesale markets;    Reduction of crediting volume and tightening of its terms to fund the domestic economy;    Higher capital requirements arising mainly from new regulatory rules by supervisory authorities. The need to reduce investment risk in sovereign debt is accompanied by huge efforts on fiscal consolidation in many countries, especially in Europe. Hence, EU economic growth expectations, including those for countries that had, insofar, posted above-average economic growth, were markedly down. It appears that the best solution for this situation will come only as a result of various countries’ ability to undertake, at this point, vital social and economic reforms as well as to provide financial support so that, on the one hand, financial stability is maintained and, on the other hand, private enterprises are provided with some relief, thus affecting their future economic development expectations. Albania’s economy maintained its positive growth rates during this period, to absorb external shocks. This flexibility is a precious characteristic that will continue to support the country’s economic development and buffer effects from various shocks, even in the future.