27  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  27  Annex  Chart 1: Advanced economy volatility of growth and inflation Standard deviation of inflation 3.5 3.0 1980 - 1998 2.5 2.0 1.5 2009 - 2018  1.0  1999 - 2008  0.5 0.0 0.5  1.0  1.5  2.0  Standard deviation of GDP growth Sources: IMF and Bank calculations. Notes: Calculations use April 2018 IMF World Economic Outlook, with data at annual frequency. 2018 assumed to be data. Figure 1: Word cloud for terms associated with ‘uncertainty’ in Agents’ reports  Sources: Bank of England Notes: Refers to Agents’ reports compiled between 1 January and late-August 2018. 28  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  28  Chart 2: Frequency of ‘uncertainty’ and ‘Brexit’ appearing in Agents’ reports Share of paragraphs in Agency visit write-ups referencing term (per cent)  10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Uncertainty  Brexit/referendum  Sources: Bank of England. Chart 3: Inflation forecast errors of different groups since 2008 (RMSE) pp 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0  1yr  2yr  3yr**  Sources: Bank of England/TNS Inflation Attitudes Survey, Barclays Basix, YouGov/CitiGroup, HMT, CBI and Bank calculations. Notes: Forecast errors since 2008Q2. Some measures start a few quarters later than 2008Q2, or have missing observations. Individual measures are included when there are no more than three missing observations.
How do you ensure as wide, diverse and representative a set of citizens as possible? How do you engage citizens who might not understand or trust the Bank? How much time needs to be set aside to enable the deliberative process to be fruitful? And how many people should you engage to get the balance right between diversity and deliberation? We are working with a range of partners, including the RSA, to come up with answers. The plan would be to set up one citizen panel for each of the Bank’s 12 regional agencies. With roughly 25 citizens per panel, this would give us a non-expert panel of around 300 people. This is edging up towards the mid-point of the Wagner/Vinaimont range and just shy of the Athenian boule. By using digital technology, we would aim to connect these citizen panels to allow national, as well as regional, deliberation. This is deliberative democracy in practice. As with the judicial system, it will involve a blend of expert and non-experts. As with juries and judges, there will be a structured process for deliberation. As in the legal system, the role of the non-experts (citizen panels) is to help establish the facts and of the experts (MPC) to set policy. What’s good enough for decisions on incarceration is good enough for decisions on inflation. Conclusion  Central banks, like all public institutions, were created by the public to serve the public.