The Bank of Estonia has been at or close to the frontier of this revolution. Today it provides a rich daily diet of reports, forecasts, working papers, speeches and tweets. th  The 20 century may yet be seen by historians as a Golden Age for central banks. Central bank numbers rose from under 20 at the start of the century to over 175 by its close. Those with operational independence for monetary policy rose from fewer than 40 in 1971 to over 150 today. And the numbers of central banks 7  with responsibilities for regulatory policy has risen sharply too, especially since the crisis. 5 6 7  Barro and Gordon (1983). For example, Nelson (2005). Haldane (2017a). 4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  th  The rise in central bank numbers in part reflects the greater numbers of nation states in the 20 century. But this, too, is revealing. Establishing a central bank has increasingly been seen as an essential building block of nation state-building, a crucial element in the fabric of democratic statecraft. Indeed, that was precisely the Estonian experience, as events in this very room a century ago testify. The Age of Innocence  This Golden Age of central banking has persisted for a century. As best we can tell, it has served economies and societies well. Prior to the crisis, the global economy entered a golden period of its own with steady 8  growth and stable inflation, known as the “Great Moderation”.
Currently, it crops up 10 times more often than the word “customer” and almost 7 times more often than the word “staff” in proximity to uncertainty. 24  Chart 2 plots a time-series of the incidence of the words “uncertainty” and “Brexit/referendum” in Agents’ company write-ups. The two, unsurprisingly, are positively correlated after the referendum. Indeed, mentions of Brexit have outnumbered mentions of uncertainty by a factor of around 3 since the referendum. While mentions of Brexit have fallen from their referendum peak, it is notable that they have picked up sharply over the past few months, with measures of uncertainty following suit. This new research strengthens the case for improving public understanding of the economy. An improved understanding could result in better-informed popular narratives, and more stable expectations, among the general. And that, ultimately, would make for a more stable economy and financial system. In practice, there may be structural factors which could be acting in the opposite direction. The great trust shift may mean people are less willing than in the past to trust expert opinion (such as through mainstream media) and more willing to trust non-expert opinion (such as some parts of social media). Around half of those in the EU use social media as a news source and, among those aged 18-24 in the UK, around a quarter use it as their main news source. 25  Yet we know that information from social media sources is typically filtered and personalised. 26  That fits  people’s (personalised, localised) preferences.