Finally, I think it is worth noting that if so-called macro-prudential policies are to be used successfully to improve the resilience of the financial system and to moderate the credit cycle, financial data collection will need to be more flexible in future. Almost certainly the seeds of the next financial crisis will sprout in a different corner of the financial system from this one. Collecting data dedicated to helping fight the last war will not serve, if those emerging risks are to be identified early and dealt with appropriately. Thank you. 6  BIS Review 142/2010
It is already clear however that it will amplify the headwinds to the strong recovery that the euro –area has been experiencing in 2021, and that it will intensify inflation pressures in a context where inflation has already increased significantly and will remain high over the coming months. The general uncertainty that marks the euro-area macroeconomic environment has implications for the conduct of monetary policy. In these conditions, it is important to balance carefully the risks of waiting too long to act as opposed to those of normalizing too soon. In any case, the  commitment of the ECB is clear: the Governing Council will do what is necessary to bring inflation firmly and durably to around two per cent over the medium term. The forward guidance, relying on state contingent criteria and the “sequencing” are instrumental to this goal. Policy normalization will follow a clear order: the ECB will end its asset purchases first, likely in Q3 2022, then raise the key interest rates, eventually reducing its balance sheet in a third step. All along this gradual process of normalization, the Governing Council of the ECB made it clear that it will maintainoptionality; gradualism and flexibility in the conduct of monetary policy. In that context, financial markets are currently considering that the rise in interest rates might start in the near future, with a first 25 bps hike almost fully factored in (90 %) as of next July, followed by two others by the end of this year.