It is important to note that, as from this MP Report, for the purposes of the conjunctural analysis of activity and the measurement of the gap, the concepts of “natural resources GDP” and “other GDP” have been replaced by “mining GDP” and “non-mining GDP”. A box in the Report explains the reasons behind this change. There we note that the sectors that we discounted from GDP until now (i.e. mining, fishery, and electricity, gas and water) are actually more volatile and less persistent. It is also shown that, in general, its relationship with the rest of the economy is limited. However, in line with the change that I have just commented, it is concluded that only the exclusion of mining activity has significant effects in the analysis of the dynamics of the aggregate economy, because of its important effects on the variance of growth. In such circumstances, and considering that broad measures are better to work with than narrow ones, 3  we adopted the distinction between mining and non-mining GDP to substitute for natural resources GDP and other GDP. Moreover, this change allows the analysis in the MP Report to be aligned with the publication of the mining and non-mining Imacec2 that we introduced a few months ago. Returning to the recent evolution of activity and demand, the sectoral composition of nonmining GDP shows better figures for sectors linked to consumption than those related to investment, particularly construction.
About our external scenario, incoming data show improved performance of exports across sectors (figure 9). Still, examining numbers of the first half, we foresee that the export volumes will contract during the year. However, by 2018 they should recover thanks to improvements in the world economy, which coupled with better prices increase our estimated 5  trade balance for next year. The low comparison base due to the Escondida mine strike downtime early this year will also result in higher mining exports in 2018. Thus, in 2018, the current account deficit should be lower than we expected in September, close to 1% of GDP, similar to our 2017 projection. At trend prices, the current account deficit remains at 2.6% on average in 2017-2018 (table 1). Aside from the scenario I have just described for domestic activity and spending, the convergence of inflation to the target also considers a mild depreciation of the real exchange rate that will cause it to converge from where it was at the closing of this Report to its longterm equilibrium within the projection horizon. The baseline scenario also contemplates that the prices of foods, particularly fresh fruits and vegetables, will return to their normal patterns, so their annual inflation will be rising over the course of 2018. About monetary policy, the Board estimates that in the baseline scenario the surprises that have pulled inflation down below expectations do not compromise the convergence of inflation to the target.