In the case of private consumption, there is also a reduction in durable goods consumption due to the peso depreciation and slower growth in real wages associated to the upward revision to the inflation forecast. As for investment, there is the downward correction of the survey from the Capital Goods Corporation on investment plans for 2015. Thus, measured in real terms, gross fixed capital formation should be 23.7 percent of GDP this year. In this projection, gross national savings rises to 21.5 percent of GDP in 2015, reflecting an increase in private saving in the past few quarters. This greater national saving has driven a further reduction in the current account. Accordingly, we estimate that this year it will be near 0 percent of GDP (table 1). On the external front, this projection assumes that our trading partners will grow more in the two-year period 2015–2016 than in previous years. The terms of trade should improve, helped by the drop in oil prices, whose impact will partly outdo the downward adjustment of the copper price. The baseline scenario assumes that copper will trade at an average of 280 dollar cents per pound in 2015–2016. In the same period, Brent oil should average 62 dollars per barrel and WTI oil, 55 dollars per barrel (table 2). Another element contributing to domestic output and demand resuming greater growth is that monetary policy continues to add significant boost to the economy, helping to keep mediumand long-term interest rates at or near record lows (figure 8).
And this takes considerably more time than addressing or doing away immediately with problems by injecting public funds. Yet this requirement to promote private solutions does not fully explain the enormous workload that has fallen on the supervisor over recent years. Insofar as it was decided at first to retain without major changes the singular legal arrangements for savings banks, and particularly their governance, this made it necessary to pursue most complex negotiations with the parties involved, namely trade unions, managers, regional governments, etc., each with very different interests from those that prevail in any mercantile company, where market discipline leads owners to worry about minimising losses and increasing shareholder value, and not about maintaining power, or the total amount devoted to early retirements, or about where headquarters should be established. In merger operations, processes such as determining shares of interest are reasonably easy to agree upon, since it suffices to make a proper valuation and to assign to each party what corresponds to it. But those who have followed the news in recent years will have witnessed the long drawn-out discussions, on a flimsy economic basis, that have been necessary to determine the power apportioned to each player in savings bank integrations. Before their transformation into banks, observance of the legal structure of savings banks meant that their restructuring could only move forward very gradually, step by step and with great prudence.