On that assumption, around two-thirds of the net job losses from the Covid crisis have already occurred, with a further 500,000 losses expected in the remainder of the year. That unemployment projection, while necessarily very uncertain, flowed from an assumption that UK output would be around 7% below pre-Covid levels by year-end. With an Okun coefficient of around 0.6, that translated into a rise of unemployment of 3-3.5 percentage points. In the August projections, this took unemployment from its pre-Covid level of 4% to around 7-7.5% at its year-end peak. 11  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches and @BoE_PressOffice  11  Since then, there have been three significant pieces of news about the jobs outlook. First, output has continued to recover faster than expected. By the end of Q3, output is now expected to be only around 3-4% below its pre-Covid level. Other things equal, this lowers risks to the MPC’s unemployment projections. Second, acting in the opposite direction, there are downside risks to this output projection as we move into the fourth quarter due to the new lockdown measures and any future measures. The third piece of significant news is the announcement of the Government’s new JSS last week, which provides wage subsidies to workers returning on reduced hours for a six month period. With details still to be finalised, it is too early to reach quantitative conclusions on the impact of the JSS.
Since this is the first time that a President of the European Central Bank has retired, I have no way of knowing if this is just standard protocol, or if it is something more. I hope it is not just that you are eager, as you  BIS Review 47/2003  1  said in your invitation, to “facilitate my departure”. I prefer to think that it reflects the warm relationship that has been built up among us during the past few years. I remember when it was first proposed to establish a Eurogroup, or “Euro-X” as it was then called. And I remember that some people said that such a group would be a threat to the ECB and its independence. Frankly speaking, I also had some doubts. I was proved wrong. As I have since said in public on various occasions, the Eurogroup meetings represent a “golden opportunity”; a golden opportunity for dialogue; a golden opportunity to be open, to be frank, to be honest, to criticise, and to listen. If you liken EMU to a house, then we are its family, and the Eurogroup is the dinner table. It is where the family members get together to tell each other what they are doing, to listen to each others advice, and learn to live together, as they must do, responsibly. Each member who joined this family did so on the understanding that his new house would be built on two stable pillars; not just a sound monetary policy, but also sound economic policies.