However, activity is expected to continue to be dampened somewhat by the process of balance sheet adjustment in various sectors. This assessment is also reflected in the June 2011 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, which foresee annual real GDP growth in a range between 1.5% and 2.3 % in 2011 and between 0.6% and 2.8% in 2012. Compared with the March 2011 ECB staff macroeconomic projections, the range for 2011 has been revised upwards, while the range for 2012 remains broadly unchanged. The June 2011 Eurosystem staff projections are broadly in line with recent forecasts by international organisations. In the Governing Council’s assessment, the risks to this economic outlook remain broadly balanced in an environment of elevated uncertainty. On the one hand, favourable business confidence could provide more support to domestic economic activity in the euro area than currently expected and higher foreign demand could also contribute more strongly to growth than expected. On the other hand, downside risks relate to the ongoing tensions in some segments of the financial markets that may potentially spill over to the euro area real economy. Downside risks also relate to further increases in energy prices, protectionist pressures and the possibility of a disorderly correction of global imbalances. With regard to price developments, euro area annual HICP inflation was 2.7% in May according to Eurostat’s flash estimate, after 2.8% in April. The relatively high inflation rates seen over the past few months largely reflect higher energy and commodity prices.
Furthermore, the most recent data confirm the positive underlying momentum of economic activity in the euro area, while uncertainty remains elevated. Overall, our monetary policy stance remains accommodative, lending support to economic activity. On balance, risks to the outlook for price stability are on the upside. Accordingly, strong vigilance is warranted. On the basis of our assessment, we will act in a firm and timely manner. We will do all that is needed to prevent recent price developments giving rise to broad-based inflationary pressures. We remain strongly determined to secure a firm anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area in line with our aim of maintaining inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. This is a prerequisite for monetary policy to make an ongoing contribution towards supporting growth and job creation in the euro area. Turning to fiscal policies, all parties involved in the preparation of the 2012 national budgets must ensure that they are fully in line with the requirement to support confidence in fiscal policies. A comparison between the latest economic forecasts by the European Commission and the fiscal plans embodied in the stability programmes points to the need for many countries to underpin their budget targets with concrete consolidation measures in order to correct their excessive deficits by the commonly agreed deadlines. The implementation of credible fiscal adjustment strategies is crucial in view of ongoing financial market pressures.