Saving is high both in oil-producing countries, China and other Asian countries. Long-term interest rates in Norway largely shadow external interest rates because like other countries Norway is keeping inflation in check. Norwegian households primarily finance house purchases by means of floating-rate loans. Long-term interest rates are still of considerable importance because  BIS Review 15/2007  9  they provide information about the future path of short-term interest rates that borrowers can expect over time. Unusually low short-term interest rates have probably also boosted the rate of increase in house prices in recent years, but this particular effect will be reversed when the interest rate is raised to a more normal level. Developments in short-term interest rates have influenced the path for house prices over the past 15 years, but periods of low interest rates are followed by periods of higher interest rates. Norges Bank’s policy rate is therefore of limited importance for house price inflation over a period of 15 to 20 years. The housing stock in Norway, which numbers a good 2.2 million dwellings, shows little change from one year to the next. As a result, higher demand for housing will primarily translate into higher prices in the short term. In the 1990s, housing starts in Norway were fairly low in relation to growth in the number of households. Moreover, population growth has been higher in recent years, largely reflecting a high level of immigration.
A survey of more than 31 European countries also shows that there is a high degree of job satisfaction among Norwegians.17 Demographic developments will have a dampening impact on demand for public services and social security disbursements over the coming years. The number of elderly among pensioners, i.e. 80 years and older, will not grow and the post-war generation will only start drawing on social security in the next decade. There will still be pressures for higher public spending. Demand for services we have chosen to let the government provide, for example health services, increases markedly when revenues rise at the pace they are rising today. Growth in government revenues – among others the return on the Government Pension Fund which is rising rapidly – also raises our expectations. At the same time, this is also a period of strong growth in demand for labour in the business sector. With the exception of part-time employees who want to work more, there are now few idle resources in the labour force. We cannot expect a substantial increase in the supply of foreign labour. Workers from other countries, such as Sweden and Poland with families and the largest share of consumption in their home country, have increased production capacity in Norway, but it now appears that the supply of foreign labour is starting to become more limited. Other inward labour migration does not generate higher value added per capita. Immigrants that become permanent residents make the same contribution to increasing demand as to increasing production.