The clearest outcome of a financial crisis is a loss of output – in other words, a severe and long-lasting recession. Using the same dataset they used to identify crises, Laeven and Valencia found that in advanced-economy nations, the median cumulative decline in output accompanying a financial crisis was 33 percent of annual gross domestic product, or one-third of an economy’s output for a year. In addition, the median growth in government debt was 21 percent of GDP, and the median fiscal cost of the crisis-related spending was 3.8 percent of GDP. Other studies confirm these grim statistics. Reinhart and Rogoff (2009) point out that recoveries from financial crises are weaker and slower than recoveries from recessions that don’t accompany a financial crisis. Employment growth is slower during recoveries from financial crises, and the associated higher unemployment can have long-lasting effects on a whole generation of young workers who sustain long spells of joblessness. There are many other maladies that come along with financial crises. Ingredients Several economic researchers agree that one crucial ingredient in creating the vulnerabilities that can foster a financial crisis is a buildup of debt.5 In particular, a “credit boom,” that is, a high and fast-growing ratio of credit to GDP, is one of the precursors to a financial crisis. Other, somewhat less reliable precursors include a prior financial liberalization or deregulation, housing price booms, and external imbalances (in practice, large inflows of capital from outside the country).
On the former, key principles guiding the policy approach should include clear global rule beyond 2012, the need for clear incentive structure by the government at the country level, reliance on market mechanism to innovate and grow the response, and financial regulation that is neutral on the issue. Under such policy setting, there will be ample opportunities for the financial system, especially in supporting green technology and carbon trading market. Lastly, for emerging markets that are starting up on the issue, five actions along the following lines could be useful. They are (1) establish the country’s overall strategy on carbon trading; (2) reduce search cost in matching buyers and sellers through a centralized system; (3) create awareness and educate all market players; (4) provide the needed tax incentive to build up the market, and (5) provide a clear legal framework. Actions in these five areas will go a long way in avoiding many of the problems that some countries are now encountering. Thank you. 4  BIS Review 97/2008