All of this is discussed at a macro forecasting meeting in the Monetary Policy Department. When the overall macroeconomic picture has been established, the economists chisel out the different points of the forecast in more detail. For instance, they make a complete forecast of the components in the balance of resources and in the labour market. Finally they check the overall picture to ensure that the different parts of the forecast hold together and have been added up correctly. In total, the economists forecast around fifty variables. All of these are then compiled into an internal document that summarises the Department’s view of how inflation and economic activity will develop in the future. Another document is also created, explaining how the forecasts are affected by model results and assessments. None of the Executive Board members takes part in this stage. The idea is that the product then reported to us will as far as possible be a civil servants’ product. It should not be influenced by the ideas of the different Executive Board members. The civil servants thus hold a relatively strong position in the process. The Executive Board’s main contribution is not to get involved in all of the details of the forecasts – instead we shall highlight different perspectives and broaden the analysis. The fact that the civil servants produce their own draft forecasts also contributes to strengthening and maintaining the internal competence.
To give the general public insight into the decision-making process and to make it easier to assess our activities, we take minutes at the meeting which the bank then publishes. As of summer 2007, we also write the member’s names in the minutes. The minutes are published around two weeks after the monetary policy meeting. Interest rate decision announced on the day after the monetary policy meeting A press release is published the day after each monetary policy meeting. This contains the most important reasons for and considerations behind the majority decision. The press release also contains the Riksbank’s forecasts for economic activity and inflation and a description of what monetary policy is currently considered to be well balanced. In connection with the publication of the interest rate decision we also hold a press conference where journalists are given the opportunity to ask questions. In connection with three of the monetary policy meetings a Monetary Policy Report is published. On the other occasions a shorter Monetary Policy Update is published instead. This contains a more limited number of forecasts for the central macro variables. That is to say, it is the majority view that is reflected in the press releases and the reports. Any differences of opinion can be seen in the minutes of the monetary policy meetings. There it is stated in detail how each of the members has argued and voted.