A strong increase in the population has expanded the growth capacity of the Norwegian economy without a comparable increase in wages. In particular, the supply of foreign labour has increased sharply after EU enlargement in 2004. Over the past two years, these labour inflows have accounted for over 30 per cent of growth in the labour force in Norway. At the same time, this has enabled Norwegian companies to be bolder in accepting new assignments and investing knowing that they can procure labour throughout Europe. In addition to increased labour inflows from Poland, Lithuania and other central European countries, we have long benefited from inflows of labour from Sweden. Many workers are on temporary assignment and their consumption is primarily concentrated in their home country. The Norwegian economy has seen a net capacity increase. Third, the Norwegian business sector has been quick to integrate new technology. This applies both to companies competing on international markets and those supplying goods and services to the domestic market. In comparison with other countries, it is particularly productivity gains in banks and other service sectors that stand out. Examples are automated processes and swifter payments in the financial industry and improved inventory and management systems in commerce and transport. This results in lower production costs.
Academic research also has a large part to play in this process, in both identifying the issues and proposing or evaluating policy responses. A lot of discussion is taking place around disentangling different forms of complexity in the market place. For example, regulators are promoting more transparency around funding and legal entity structure within complex financial institutions. And there is also a growing body of work that is exploring clearing houses and exchanges as important structural vehicles to mitigate the increased inter-connectedness driven by the growth of derivatives1. The approach taken in this paper is to look at some of the details of how risk-taking is executed and the underlying market structures. These micro-foundations can have a profound impact on systemic stability beyond the normal consideration of formal regulations. In particular, we focus on one aspect of market structure: contracts where, because of a failure to take into account how the financial system as a whole operates, the true value of the contract is different from what it was intended to be – by at least one of the counterparties who struck the contract. This can arise either because in states of the world in which a particular contract is designed to have value there is high correlation with other events or where, in that state of the world, full adherence to the legal structure would cause large unintended consequences in terms of signalling or reputational damage.