Looking ahead, the baseline scenario predicts that the economy will continue to improve, that mobility restrictions will not return to mid2020 levels, and that the fiscal and monetary momentum will continue, with positive annual growth figures showing more consistently in 2021 starting in the second quarter. Even so, the erosion caused by the deep fall in activity and the use of public and private buffers—which was very necessary to navigate the first months of the pandemic—increases our vulnerability to risk scenarios and poses significant challenges in order for growth to advance towards its trend rate. Let me now share with you our evaluation of the economic scenario and related risks. Page 1 of 19  II. The macroeconomic scenario  Global activity has continued to recover from the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, in a context of increased mobility and continued fighting of the disease. This has also been the case in Chile, although the pace of normalization has been slower than in other countries, slowing down the expected economic recovery (Figure 1). In recent weeks, there have been major outbreaks in the United States and Europe, which has led to the reinstatement of some restrictions. However, as opposed to developments early in the pandemic, these measures have been more focused and not as severe, so mobility has not been reduced as much.
Cooperation has, in fact, always been the ECB’s preferred approach to the oversight of financial market infrastructures (FMIs). This cooperation should rely on two elements, as agreed at the international level: first, effective cooperative oversight arrangements and, second, crisis management groups to allow for mutual consultation in recovery and resolution planning. Unfortunately, for several global CCPs, these arrangements do not yet exist, or do not involve all relevant authorities, despite international commitments. These delays are a source of concern, not least as seven years have passed since the adoption of the PFMIs5, and almost five years since international standards were adopted for both the recovery6 and resolution7 of FMIs. I urge all parties involved to accelerate progress in this area. 2/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  The Eurosystem needs to be able to conduct effective oversight Cooperation is also indispensable for the second topic of today’s conference, namely CCP liquidity and the role of the central bank of issue. In Europe, cooperation ensures that the ECB and the Eurosystem can conduct effective oversight of euro-denominated clearing activities, wherever they may be established. In 2017 the ECB recommended an amendment to its Statute to clarify its competence over CCPs for the purpose of carrying out its monetary functions.8 The ensuing debate among legislators and policymakers in the EU and beyond was marred by some misunderstandings, however, which I would like to dispel today. As you all know, some central banks are CCP supervisors. The ECB is not, 9 and has no intention of becoming one.