It may take time for a weakening to spill over to output and employment, but when the turnaround first occurs it takes place rapidly and on a large scale. Primary industries, in contrast, are scaled back gradually. These developments will take place in addition to the effects associated with the increased spending of petroleum revenues. All in all, employment in manufacturing and agriculture may fall by 2 - 5 per cent of total employment in the period to 2010. Employment in manufacturing may drop towards 10 per cent of the total. Agriculture may employ less than 2 per cent of total employment. BIS Review 20/2002  7  Changes in industry structure, with an increase in the number employed in services and a decrease in manufacturing, will probably reduce the role of pay increases in manufacturing as a benchmark for wage determination. Among many of Norway’s trading partners, similar developments have occurred. However, the share of employment in manufacturing and agriculture in Norway is already relatively low. Pensions While high oil prices have resulted in sizeable revenues and surpluses on the current account and government budgets, growth in mainland output has been low over the last three years, at only 1 ¼ per cent per year. The sluggish growth rate may be attributed to the supply side of the Norwegian economy. Extensive labour reforms have limited the supply of labour. Measured by person-hours, employment has fallen by 0.4 per cent annually in this period.
The current evaluation of our public pension system must focus on the incentives to work and the effects on the average retirement age. A fund-based system may be an appropriate approach and at the same time make pension savings transparent for each individual. This may in itself provide an incentive to increase working hours. Thank you for your attention. BIS Review 20/2002  11