A subset of those digital assets, known as stablecoins, could over time be used by consumers and businesses as money, if they serve as a safe means of payment, a store of value, and a unit of account.2 Some jurisdictions are considering bringing these kinds of instruments into the regulatory framework by requiring their issuers to become banks or other licensed entities.3 This could enhance the ability to safely integrate them into the payments system. It could also expand access to central bank accounts and services to new entrants, allowing the stablecoins to be backed by the most liquid and stable of assets: central bank reserves. Traditional commercial banks are also forming consortiums and partnering with digital innovation firms to increase their offerings of liabilities associated with digital activities, which might entail offering deposits to stablecoin issuers or even direct issuance of stablecoins. Many are also investing in distributed ledger activities that could transform their businesses. Preliminary analysis of the May 2022 Senior Financial Officer Survey suggests that most U.S. Global Systemically Important Banks (GSIBs) expect growth and development in these areas to be a medium or high priority over the next couple of years, and banks continue to explore these areas to see how they fit into their business strategies.4 Central banks are also innovating. Many are implementing new forms of payments or experimenting with central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) to prepare for the future.
Exports continue to grow, deflation has moderated, and unemployment appears to have peaked. Less easy to quantify is the change in mood, although it is, as I have said, shown to some extent in the activities in the markets, as well as in consumer spending. What is, I think, clear to every observer, however cynical, is that there has been, among all sectors of the community, a marked and quite sudden turnaround, from pessimism bordering on despair to a cheerful if cautious optimism. This comes as a huge relief after the gloom and despondency of the second quarter. Important initiatives, such as CEPA and the relaxation of restrictions on individual travellers from the Mainland, have undoubtedly helped to stimulate confidence. So too have the general - though by no means conclusive - signals that the world economy is also in better shape. It is also very likely that the recent surge in markets and the gradual growth in economic activity are part of a longer-term trend, going on for at least a year now, in which there have been underlying improvements in the Hong Kong economy. Deflation, under the discipline of the Link, has made Hong Kong more competitive: it is now a less expensive city in which to do business or take a holiday. The real effective exchange rate for the Hong Kong dollar - which is a true measure of the competitiveness of an economy - has declined by 24% over the past five years.