We have also faced several challenges at home, which include two episodes of the avian flu and a decline in consumer and investor sentiment linked to the situation in the South. But despite these risks and challenges, the Thai economy has managed quite well under the circumstances. The latest data showed real GDP to have grown by an impressive 6.4 percent for the first half of this year, reflecting the resiliency of our economy, which is still growing at a respectable rate, in spite of many negative external developments. Favourable conditions for the export of goods and services have allowed a continued surplus of our current account. This has been accompanied by corresponding reductions in external debt which fell from the peak of 112 billion US dollars in June 1997 to 50 billion US dollars in June of this year. Meanwhile, international reserves of 44 billion US dollars in August also provide a level of protection that should help the economy comfortably absorb external shocks. It was mainly an account of the strength of this external position that Thailand’s credit rating was upgraded by Standard and Poor’s last month. Ladies and gentlemen, At this time, the high price of oil is probably the most important external risk to the economy. However, this risk poses varying implications for economic growth and stability. Our macroeconomic forecasting model shows that the impact of higher oil price on economic growth is likely to be less pronounced compared to its impact on inflation and economic stability.
8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  8  EMBARGO: not for release before 19:30 on Wednesday 4 October 2017  Further ahead, we hope for a strong, co-operative relationship in which wholesale banks can continue to operate across the UK and EU27 in branches. The fact this happens today is not just thanks to the passport. It is because we have shared in the long road of post-crisis reform, developing and implementing the same high standards. And it is because we have embedded a sophisticated framework of supervisory co-operation, toward the same objectives of safety and soundness. With common interests and a concerted effort, there is every reason to think these will continue into the future. But we must plan, in a proportionate way, for alternative outcomes. Planning for the worst, hoping for the best. Conclusion  In my speech here a year ago, I said that the post-crisis reforms will be treated to revisionist history and the calls of counter-revolution. So it has proved, most obviously in the US. Some still argue that capital requirements are too high, and others that they are too low. Broadly I think we have landed in the right place and I take some comfort from being flanked on both sides of the argument. The next challenge will be striking the right balance of geofinance. How much is enough? Learning the lessons of the past decade, we are embracing geofinance in the domestication of retail banking.