Two sources of potential stress should, however, be mentioned. First, a slowdown in the economy which, though unlikely, is still conceivable - could have negative repercussions on the quality of loan portfolios and on stockmarket prices. Second, in the more likely event of a sustained economic upswing, a sharper-than-expected rise in interest rates could also worsen the quality of loan portfolios by increasing the interest burden on households and companies more than expected. Analysis of the various scenarios suggests that sufficient capital is available in the Swiss banking sector to withstand even a substantial deterioration in the economic or stockmarket climate or a sharp rise in interest rates. Nevertheless, some banks have announced that they now have an increased appetite for risk. A general rise in risk acceptance would render the banking sector more sensitive to deteriorations in the macroeconomic or stockmarket environment. System oversight At the media conference in December last year, I reported in detail on the background to system oversight, i.e. the oversight of payment and securities settlement systems. Today I am limiting myself given the recent publication of the Financial Stability Report - to a briefing on the current situation. The day on which the new National Bank Act took effect - 1 May 2004 - also saw the entry into force of the new National Bank Ordinance. Among other things, the Ordinance contains the implementation provisions for system oversight.
This task complements those performed by the Swiss Federal Banking Commission (SFBC), which oversees the individual banks (microprudential oversight). The Financial Stability Report takes account of this division of tasks. The National Bank limits its evaluation of the Swiss banking sector’s stability by focusing on trends observable at the levels of the banking system, the financial markets and the macroeconomic environment. It only focuses on individual banks when this is necessary in order to make an overall assessment. The main purpose of the Financial Stability Report is to allow the National Bank to highlight any stresses or imbalances that could pose an immediate or longer-term threat to system stability. We evaluate the stability of the banking sector in two steps. First we analyse the development of the risk factors in the macroeconomic environment and on the financial markets. Then we evaluate the banking system’s robustness in the face of these risk factors. To do this, we consider profitability, the risks entered into and the capital adequacy of the banking sector. To complete our analysis, we use newly developed models that quantify both the stress to which the banking sector is subjected and its correlation with the macroeconomic environment. The main characteristics and conclusions drawn from these models are published for the first time today. The models will be presented in detail in a series of SNB publications. The analysis presented in the Financial Stability Report indicates that the banking sector is stable.