These may lead to significant changes in trade relations between countries in the coming years. On the other hand, the uneven impact of the crisis across different sectors, types of business and population groups is becoming visible in this phase. As the crisis continues, some of the damage may become permanent. In this respect, despite the wide range of measures adopted, there has already been a very significant drop in the number of firms 15  registered for Social Security. Specifically, almost 84,000 fewer firms were registered for Social Security at the end of September, compared with the end of February, a year-onyear decline of 6.1% in September.4 It is very likely that Q3 data will also show an increase in long-term unemployment. And, as I have already mentioned, the crisis is affecting workers on low wages and with more fragile finances more severely, which may increase inequality. We can also expect the public sector and part of the private sector to emerge from this crisis with significantly higher levels of debt. It is crucial that these changes and this structural damage are identified promptly and that their implications for the economy as a whole, as well as for specific sectors, firms and segments of the population are understood. Economic policy cannot indefinitely sustain a sector that is set to undergo a structural reduction in its level of activity.
In annual average terms, the unemployment rate is expected to rise significantly this year (to 17.1% of the labour force under the first scenario and to 18.6% under the second) and also in 2021, before starting to descend in 2022 (when, in annual average terms, it would stand at 18.2% and 20.2% under the respective scenarios). Both scenarios forecast inflation to hold at a moderate pace over the projection horizon. Core inflation has slowed notably in recent months as a result of the weakness of demand stemming from the pandemic. Looking ahead, the persistence of a high degree of cyclical slack will mean inflation in non-energy industrial goods and in services will continue to run at relatively low - though growing - rates until end-2022. The risks underlying the scenarios for economic activity published by the Bank remain tilted to the downside. And more unfavourable developments than those contained in the second scenario, i.e. the harsher of the two considered, cannot be ruled out. In particular, in light of the recent course of the pandemic, we cannot preclude the resort to more severe lockdown measures than those envisaged in the scenarios. Moreover, there is much uncertainty over how long will be needed before we have an effective medical treatment, and there are some risks that it will be delayed beyond mid-2021. Lastly, uncertainty remains on the external front, especially concerning the possibility of the Brexit negotiations concluding without an agreement at the end of the transition period or of US-China trade tensions worsening.