Elvira Nabiullina: Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy in 2015 and for 2016 and 2017. Presentation by Ms Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Bank of Russia, at a meeting of the Committee on the Budget and Taxes of the State Duma of the Russian Federation, Moscow, 13 October 2014. *  *  *  Accompanying slides can be found on the Bank Russia’s website: Slides (PDF). Dear colleagues, good afternoon! Today we present for discussion the draft Guidelines for the Single State Monetary Policy in 2015 and for 2016 and 2017. This document was prepared in rather difficult conditions. The first factor is a slowdown in economic growth. The second is the volatility and tension in the foreign exchange and financial markets. And the third is a leap of inflation, which occurred recently. This all creates a rather complicated environment for developing the strategy of the guidelines for the monetary policy. We have prepared three scenarios. I suggest starting with the baseline scenario in slide 2. The baseline scenario is based on the assumptions of a steady recovery of the global economic growth, a slight decrease in oil prices, a gradual resolution of geopolitical problems and lifting during 2015 of most of the imposed mutual sanctions and restrictions. Nevertheless, in the first half of 2015, in our view, factors limiting investment activity will remain, and investment activity is one of the key elements that can affect the trends in economic growth.
Foreign banks have continued to expand their operations here, and many have made Singapore a regional or even global platform for important banking services. The local banks have strengthened their capabilities and expanded their range of business activities. They have built up their management teams, and made significant infrastructural investments to enhance their operational effectiveness. Fees and commissions have risen as a proportion of operating income. Banks are offering new business services, while continuing to provide affordable banking facilities to the average Singaporean. They have held their own despite the increased competition. For instance, their market share of resident non-bank deposits (both ACU and DBU) has declined only marginally from 62% to 59% over the last five years. The local banks have also improved their business and risk management capabilities. The recent change in MAS’ capital adequacy requirements is in recognition of local banks’ efforts to upgrade their risk management capabilities, and should allow them to manage their capital more flexibly. With greater financial strength from the mergers and increased competition at home, local banks have begun to venture abroad and develop a regional footprint through overseas acquisitions. Banking liberalisation When MAS embarked on the liberalisation measures, we sought to anticipate changes and trends that we were convinced were already underway. Events since then showed that we moved none too soon. Technological advances have continued unabated. The Internet for instance has proven to be an efficient and widely used alternative distribution and marketing channel, and has helped create new business models.