14  These failures underlined the importance of experts being subject to challenge and having rigorous processes for differentiating good experts from bad ones. Historically, some of the best challenge has come from the process of scientific discovery and from other experts through peer review. Karl Popper argued that in a world of uncertainty and complexity, we cannot know the truth, we can only make increasingly better guesses by weeding out falsehoods. 15  Scientific progress occurs as evidence is accumulated through better  and better guesses – hence the importance of putting in place processes for challenge to avoid the tyranny of misguided ideologies. In academic life this process is based on principles like the need for researchers to be “disinterested” and have no material stake in the outcome, subject themselves to peer review, and (in 16  many disciplines) make their data available to enable replication of their results . The changing landscape of information, opinion and trust Today, however, experts are facing a new challenge in the form of the dilution of their monopoly over authoritative opinion. Technology has changed the amount of information people have access to, the way they get it and how they form their opinions. According to a report by the Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism here at Oxford University, half of people with online access use social media as a news source (the number having doubled in the US since just 2013).
The good news is that since the crisis broke, banks in the UK and elsewhere have made significant progress in rebuilding capital. Evidence to support this is that at its last meeting in June, the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee decided to close its recommendation of March last year that the largest UK banks and building societies should meet a minimum 7% Common Equity Tier One ratio on the socalled end-point (ie full implementation) basis set out in the EU rules to implement Basel III, after taking into account adjustments for expected loss on more vulnerable loan portfolios, the impact of future conduct of business costs, and prudent use of risk weights. Since then the actions taken by a number of major UK banks and building societies have put them on course or ahead of the planned actions to meet the FPC’s test. In a few cases, there are more actions to be undertaken in their plans, but overall this is a welcome story of action taken to strengthen capital positions. I do however accept that there remains a perception in some quarters that higher capital standards are bad for lending and thus for a sustained economic recovery. I agree with those who argue that banks have a lot more to do to demonstrate that they support lending to small businesses. Interestingly, in recent weeks the messages I have seen from the Bank of  4  Bank calculations based on supervisory data.