However, over the long term,  13  In the absence of empirical experience of conducting macroprudential supervision, theoretical analyses can provide guidance to the consequences that can be expected. However, academic research into this area is still in its infancy and it is therefore difficult to draw any unequivocal conclusions from it at present. Goodhart et al. (2012) is one example of a study investigating the interplay of a number of macroprudential policy instruments, which is to say whether these complement or substitute each other. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  something more than a qualified discussion forum will be needed. To become really effective, macroprudential policy needs to acquire the distinct status of an independent policy area with its own tools for promoting stability in the financial system as a whole and a clear allocation of responsibility. Assessing and demanding responsibility demands a clear allocation of responsibility. Another benefit of establishing a clear and effective framework for macroprudential policy is that this will allow monetary policy to be relieved of taking account of financial stability. In my opinion, this consideration is creating a risk that monetary policy will become unclear and unpredictable. A functioning macroprudential policy will thus let us both reduce the risk of financial crises and give us a monetary policy that can more efficiently stabilise inflation around the inflation target and resource utilisation around a sustainable level. Thank you! References Borio, C., 2010, “Implementing a Macroprudential Framework: Blending Boldness and realism”, Bank of International Settlements.
2 Exactly how these frameworks will look is still somewhat unclear, but a few general principles have crystallised as regards both appropriate institutional structures and which instruments it may be appropriate to use. 3 Finansinspektionen already has instruments at its disposal that are focused on the health and behaviour of individual participants and companies. But one important lesson of the crisis is that this is not enough. Our toolkit needs to be complemented with tools that can focus on the system as a whole. Today, I will discuss what such a Swedish toolbox for macroprudential supervision could include. 1  The speech “Macroprudential policy and clear communication contribute to financial stability” was held at the Swedish Bankers’ Association on 30 March 2012. See www.riksbank.se. 2  For more detailed analyses of macroprudential policy and its ability to counteract systemic risk, see, for example, Borio (2010), Galati and Moessner (2011) and Viñals (2010 and 2011). 3  See, for example Lim, C., et al., (2011),”Macroprudential Policy: What Instruments and How to Use Them? Lessons from Country Experiences”, IMF Working Paper, 11/238. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  Different types of risk… Before I go into the different types of tools that could be used to manage systemic risks, I will explain what is meant by systemic risk. The Riksbank usually defines systemic risk as the risk that a shock will occur in the financial system, leading to substantial costs for society. 4 Such risks can arise for various reasons.