There is a risk that the shortages we see in the labour market, and which clearly motivate wage increases for certain professional groups, lead to an inflationary rate of wage increase. It is therefore important for the Riksbank to analyse the supply side of the labour market. So far there is mainly a shortage of persons with certain healthcare training and of teachers in science and technical subjects. In the longer term, however, a lower supply of labour is expected and an increase in demand. The population increase that Sweden has experienced during the 1990s will gradually decline and with 13 effect from 2010 growth in the working population will be negative. The large population growth among the younger and older age categories risks reducing labour force participation, as these age groups generally have a lower participation than average. In addition, there is a proposal for shorter working hours with effect from 2004, which risks reducing the labour supply measured in hours even further. Wage development during the forecast period  Over the past year employment has developed at a surprisingly strong rate, despite the subdued demand in the economy. The labour force reserve should be regarded as small, if one uses the registered labour force as a measure. The percentage of unemployed and persons in labour market policy programmes amounted to 6.7 per cent in September.
There were also considerable unused resources following the crisis at the beginning of the 1990s, which could be put into use when the economy recovered. Between the years 1991 and 1994 approximately 500 000 jobs disappeared; many of those who lost their jobs left the labour force but have returned as economic activity has picked up. Even today we have not returned to the employment levels prevailing before the crisis in 1991. When demand in the economy slackened in connection with the international downturn in economic activity last year, many companies chose to retain personnel because unemployment was at a low level and it would be difficult to obtain new labour. As a result, productivity developed weakly during 2001. Compared with earlier economic downturns, the decline in productivity was modest. Now that companies have begun to utilise more effectively the labour they had retained, we can see that productivity has increased by 2.6 per cent during the first half of this year, compared with the equivalent period last year. The fact that a large part of the increase in productivity in the 1990s can be attributed to certain industrial sectors, such as the IT and telecommunications sector, whose relative significance has declined, indicates that productivity will grow at a more modest rate in future. However, a continued macroeconomic stability that facilitates long-term decision-making, a higher level of education during the 1990s and certain improvements in competitive pressure indicate that 6 productivity growth can be higher in future than during the 1970s and 1980s.