For this broad and interesting work we need a broad set of interesting, and interested, people. So this is where you come in, as talented potential policymakers of the future. Page 10  As I just described, the Bank has a broad remit, to pursue monetary and financial stability acting for the good of the people of the country as a whole. This means we need staff from a diverse range of backgrounds. Those that understand economics to analyse and forecast the economy. Those that understand financial markets to draw insights into their complex interactions and potential to propagate shocks. And those that understand financial institutions to ensure they are resilient and serving the UK economy. All technically strong to do these critically important jobs. We need diversity more broadly too. Indeed the Bank has become much more diverse and inclusive since I first joined, partly evidenced by my own presence as a female leader – one of many now, compared with a very small number when I joined. But we have further to go, and part of our strategy is to increase our physical presence across the UK. That includes here in Leeds – where we currently have a small pilot office, with plans to expand that in coming years reflecting the breadth of skills and backgrounds here. As we pursue monetary and financial stability, we need a wide range of people from a wide range of disciplines from all across the UK to help us do that.
We thus will need to see more data to determine the extent to which the March data represent a transitory weather-related setback. Regardless of the importance of the mild winter in distorting the recent economic data, real economic activity has yet to be strong enough on a sustained basis to make a big dent in the overall amount of slack in the U.S. economy. While growth was stronger in the fourth quarter, most of it was due to inventory accumulation. Growth of final sales remained quite weak. Historically, quarters in which inventory investment makes significant growth contributions are typically followed by quarters in which that growth contribution is modest or even negative. That appears to be what is shaping up for the first quarter of this year. Based on available data, our current expectations are that real GDP will expand at around a 2 ¼ percent annual rate during the first quarter of 2012. Even with the robust increase of light vehicle sales, overall consumer spending in the first quarter appears to be rising at a similar moderate rate. At the same time, real disposable income has been flat over the past three months, and the large increase of gasoline prices is likely further sapping consumers’ real purchasing power. And growth of business investment spending, which softened in the fourth quarter of 2011, may have been even a little softer in the first quarter of this year.