The deepest red, for example, means the indicator is beyond the 90th percentile of its historic distribution. Chart 4 Selected indicators of underlying vulnerabilities  Series and sources: 12-month mortgage credit growth (Bank of England); share of households with mortgage LTIs above 4.5 (UK Finance); corporate debt growth (annual) – Bank staff measure (Bank of England, Association of British Insurers, Cass Commercial Real Estate Lending Survey, Datastream from Refinitiv, Deals Business Intelligence from Refinitiv, Deloitte, LCD, an offering of S&P Global Market Intelligence, London Stock Exchange, ONS, Preqin and Bank calculations); UK current account balance (% GDP) (ONS and Bank calculations). Notes: Each data series included in the heatmap has been rescaled into a percentile by using a kernel density estimate of its cumulative distribution function using all available data back to 1987. The Bank staff estimate for corporate debt adjusts the official ONS measure by adding sources of market-based finance not captured by the ONS and by removing other sources of market-based finance that have been misallocated to corporate debt. The net effect of these adjustments is predominantly to decrease the level of debt pre-crisis. Stocks of PNFC debt at 2018 Q3 split: 43% bank loans, 39% corporate bonds, with residual being money market instruments and other forms of non-bank finance. The temperature overall doesn’t look elevated. The only warm colour on this heat map stems from the UK’s continued reliance on the kindness of strangers – its persistent current account deficit, running currently at 4.4% of annual GDP (Chart 3).
In the UK at least, macroprudential policy has become an operational reality. Now, with the help of research and the latest techniques, we’re looking to the future. That work will help us stay disciplined and agile in keeping up with changes in the economy. It’s guiding us to what needs to be monitored closely in the non-bank system and where new standards of resilience might be needed to keep up as the financial system changes shape. Keep up we must. It’s no use waiting for the tremors. When the economic ground shakes, whenever that may be, we will all want the financial system to be resilient. 20  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  20