This trajectory considers that the transmission to prices of the peso depreciation accumulated in the past year will be in line with its historical patterns; that real wages will be adjusted as a function of productivity; and that output gaps will remain over the projection horizon. For the RER, the methodological assumption used is that, the same as now, it will fluctuate in the upper part of the range believed to be consistent with its long-term fundamentals. As for the MPR, the working assumption is that the gradual withdrawal of the monetary impulse will be similar to what is suggested by surveys over a one-year horizon, meaning that monetary policy should start normalizing by the turn of next year (figure 8). The baseline scenario reflects those events that are believed to be the most likely to occur with the information at hand at the closing of this Report. There are risks, however, which, if materialized, may reshape the macroeconomic outlook and, therefore, may alter the course of monetary policy. Abroad, the main sources of risk remain, only more moderate. The possibility of specific events generating episodes of high volatility in global financial markets persists, affecting funding costs, the exchange rate and the short-term inflation outlook. On the one hand, any surprises regarding the timing or the pace at which the Fed will increase its benchmark rate can cause fluctuations in asset prices.
Turning to our estimates, the baseline scenario foresees that this year GDP will grow between 2.25% and 3.25%, a range that is somewhat lower than estimated in the last Report 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  (table 3). This projection considers that the floods in the north of the country and one-time effects on important mines reduce the mining growth estimate, with a downward incidence on the estimate for annual GDP growth of one tenth of one point compared with the March forecast. Meanwhile, since the partial data of recent months show weaker private expenditure, it is foreseen that the recovery that was expected for the second half will occur at a slower pace than was projected in March. The Business Perceptions Report of last May confirmed bounded expectations regarding the performance of businesses and investments in 2015. Moreover, the CBC’s survey continued to point to a fall in valued projects for this year compared with 2014 (table 1). On the external front, our projection assumes trading partners’ growth to drop by one tenth of a point in 2015 and 2016, to 3.3% and 3.7%, respectively. This adjustment responds largely to the reduced projection for the US. In the Eurozone, prospects remain unchanged because first quarter data brought no surprises other than some differences within the region. Growth is revised down for China and Latin America, because of actual first-quarter data and weaker prospects.