At its recent meeting, the FOMC decided to continue its accommodative policy stance. It reaffirmed its expectation that the current low range for the federal funds rate target will be appropriate at least as long as the unemployment rate remains above 6.5 percent, so long as inflation and inflation expectations remain well-behaved. It is important to remember that these conditions are thresholds, not triggers. The FOMC also maintained its purchases of $ billion per month in agency MBS and $ billion per month in Treasury securities, with a stated goal of promoting a substantial improvement in the labor market outlook in a context of price stability. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  In its statement, the FOMC said that it may vary the pace of purchases as economic conditions evolve. As Chairman Bernanke stated in his press conference following the FOMC meeting, if the economic data over the next year turn out to be broadly consistent with the outlooks that the FOMC sees as most likely, which are roughly similar to the outlook I have already laid out, the FOMC anticipates that it would be appropriate to begin to moderate the pace of purchases later this year. Under such a scenario, subsequent reductions might occur in measured steps through the first half of next year, and an end to purchases around mid-2014.
From a medium-term perspective, and even when conditions are established that will free up the flow of credit from the banking sector to the  4  BIS Review 52/2009  real economy, it cannot be expected that rates of expansion will rise again to the heights of recent years. The de-leveraging process underway in the banking sector, and in the economy in general, is not a passing fad, but rather a means of achieving lower and more sustainable debt positions. One way of making up for the lower rates of credit expansion, and thus countering the foreseeable narrowing of net interest margins, would be to diversify banking activity into new business segments. In principle, diversification is a positive thing, but it must be undertaken with caution. Experience shows that both in Spain and internationally, only on limited occasions can an institution's sound knowledge of its core business be directly transferred to activities that lie further afield. Accordingly, those in charge of institutions should show prudence and avoid what can be termed contrived diversification processes and carefully assess their entry into unfamiliar market segments in which they lack experience. Second, in the short term bad debts will keep rising and so the pressure on loan loss provisions will continue to be high. It is true that the reduction in interest rates will bring relief for households and firms and help to limit the impact of the rise in bad debts, but the contractionary phase of the cycle will foreseeably last some quarters.