As we were making the key rate decision in February, the Finance Ministry was then yet to launch its forex operations as part of the budget rule. It was difficult to gauge the envisaged impact of such operations. The Finance Ministry-conducted purchases of foreign currency could have fomented a short-term deterioration in exchange rate and inflation expectations. Given a number of risks including these, we toughened our rhetoric at the time. To date we see that the foreign currency market has remained steady. The impact of these operations on the ruble exchange rate was immaterial if its strengthening factors prevailed. Fourth, the updates to the outlook are mainly related to 2017, with the mid-term prospects for economic development unchanged. A conservative approach to the baseline scenario assumes oil prices to drop to $ a barrel by the end of 2017. In this case, the average annual oil price will hold near $ in 2017, that is, well above the previous scenario’s assumptions. It would be difficult at this point to make a definitive forecast as regards the potential extension, in the middle of the year, of oil producers’ output cut deal. This is indeed an uncertainty factor. Oil prices may also be under downward pressure coming from rising outputs of shale oil, as well as a potentially stronger dollar on the back of the US Fed rate rise.
Despite the consensus among policy-makers on the importance of financial stability, the economic literature lacks adequate theoretical and empirical studies on the details of the transmission mechanism from financial stability to macroeconomic stability. At this point, academia is expected to do their share in this respect. The two-day conference will stage parallel sessions, panel discussions and presentations on these issues. Banking sector dynamics, macroprudential measures and their impact on macroeconomic stability, systemic risk issue and sovereign debt dynamics are among the topics that will be addressed at the conference. Two of our distinguished guests, Mr. Ricardo Caballero and Mr. Franklin Allen, will be delivering speeches. Mr. Caballero will be presenting a speech on the first day of the conference and Mr. Allen’s presentation is scheduled for the second day. On the second day of the conference, the panel discussion titled “How did the crisis challenge the Central Banking as we knew it? What should (not) change?” will be held, at which senior central bankers will be sharing their country experiences. I think this panel discussion will be very interesting and beneficial for all the participants. The studies that will be presented throughout the conference will contribute to better understanding of the factors threatening financial and macroeconomic stability and developing policies to achieve these two objectives simultaneously. I believe that the conference will also serve as a forum for the participants for exchanging views.