The inherent flexibility of a managed float regime such as the one pursued by the NBR does, however, have its clear limitations, which should not be overlooked – this does not imply, by any means, that the central bank acts in a discretionary manner, taking the exchange rate wherever it wants. The abuse of flexibility can be as harmful to the proper functioning of the economy as the abuse of rigidity. In fact, the inflation-targeting regime implemented by the NBR is a mix of rules and discretion with the aim of formulating a coherent and effective monetary policy. As regards the current differences in the countries’ approaches to euro adoption, for some it might seem odd that Bulgaria, which lags behind in terms of real convergence, is considering joining the euro area sooner than Romania. It is only natural for our neighbour to contemplate euro adoption as the only sound exit from the present currency board. By contrast, in Romania, as well as in other countries pursuing a floating exchange rate regime, the approach is different, since euro adoption is more complex. This is by no means to say that Romania does not envisage joining the euro area, but merely that a comprehensive preparation is of the essence to cope with the related challenges. The Latin dictum festina lente is, in my opinion, quite suitable in the case of euro adoption as well. With respect to real convergence, many have been asking themselves “How fast is fast enough?”.
Poland and Hungary stand at around 67 percent (both posting values of no more than 45 percent in 2000), Czechia at 86 percent (from 61 percent in 2000) and Bulgaria at 47 percent (against 24 percent in 2000). As a matter of fact, Romania boasts the fastest growth rate in the group of peer countries with similar trends. Can we, therefore, say that this is proof of a successful catching-up in real terms? Furthermore, can we claim that having a flexible policy framework (including a managed floating exchange rate) helped us in this respect? Allow me to assert that more time is needed in order for these questions to be appropriately answered. However, a general remark can be made: the EU and NATO anchors helped us all make progress as concerns real convergence. The second lesson derives from the answer to the following question: did the strategic decisions on the exchange rate regime and monetary policy framework matter? It is known that some countries in the region (Romania, Poland, Czechia, Hungary) opted for flexible exchange rate arrangements and adopted inflation targeting, while others (Bulgaria and the Baltic states) resorted to a fixed exchange rate regime under a currency board. At first sight, it seems that the latter group of countries are better prepared in terms of euro adoption (the Baltic states have already taken this step but they, being much smaller and more open economies, are a special case), given the fiscal discipline pursued and the nominal convergence stage in those economies.