We should think about how market participants will react to the potential politicization of the monetary policy process. Knowing that a decision to raise interest rates today might be criticized by the GAO six months later, market participants could begin to worry about the Fed’s willingness to make tough choices in terms of tightening monetary policy. If that were the case, inflation expectations could become less well anchored. This, in turn, would make it more difficult to keep inflation under control, even if the fears of market participants about the Fed ultimately turned out to be unwarranted. Our monetary policy decisions are already public and a wide range of Fed officials explain the rationale for our actions. It has been well established around the world that monetary policy independence leads to better outcomes in terms of unemployment and inflation. In my view, any legislation that would cast doubts about the Fed’s independence in the conduct of monetary policy would not be beneficial to this country. Thank you for your kind attention. I would be happy to take a few questions. 8  BIS Review 161/2009
Turning to today’s conference theme of “On the Horizon for Community Banking,” I have a few observations that I’d like to share. These observations, in part, preview the day’s agenda and I look forward to the continued conversation on these important issues. First, our country and the banking industry have benefitted from steady economic growth, modest inflation, and low unemployment in recent years. These are all positive and welcome outcome, but not all regions have benefitted equally here in the Second District. Some portions of upstate New York have benefitted from an influx of technology companies and other industries, while other regions remain challenged due to a lack of population growth. Later today we will hear from two of our economists who will share national and regional economic trends. Also in the spirit of looking forward, I can share some views on what community bankers can expect from the supervisory process. Examiners are keenly focused on emerging trends around funding costs and liquidity risks. Bankers consistently share with us the challenge of raising core deposits to fund loan growth. Community banks compete not only with other community banks for deposits, but also with credit unions and larger institutions. And, these larger counterparts are actively courting customers through direct mailers and offering competitive rates. Data in the Second District show cost across most deposit categories have increased with a slight uptick in the higher cost funding sources such as borrowings. Data for the largest banks exhibit a comparable trend, but they control a larger market share.