Economic growth has been just as high, if not higher, since inflation came down to a low level, compared with the years when inflation was high and at times at double-digit levels. Chart: Monetary policy model requirements For the model to be relevant it should build on long-term relationships that we believe to be valid and it should be consistent with data. For example, the model’s relationships should describe how the interest rate works, in line with relevant empirical observations of the Norwegian economy. It is also of considerable importance to us that the economic mechanisms in the model should be understandable and easy to communicate. The model apparatus is to function as a useful tool, both in the internal process ahead of the monetary policy meetings and in Norges Bank’s external communication. Chart: Quote George Box A model will never be able to provide an exhaustive description of reality. In 1979, the British statistician George Box stated: “Essentially, all models are wrong, but some are useful”. Models can help to identify key driving forces, ensure a valid line of reasoning and consistency over time. This will enable the model to play an important role in the analytical basis for interest rate setting. At the same time, we must use common sense and experience when evaluating the model-based results and supplement these results with our own professional judgement. In this respect, the Bank has a pragmatic attitude regarding the use of models.
Hence, the keel has been laid for a single market for retail payments. And not just the single market for the euro area, but for Europe as a whole. SEPA and also the Payment Services Directive (PSD) are standardising retail payments across the EU-27. So what does that mean for the UK market? The UK banking market is highly interconnected with the euro area. We also see that several UK banks are actively involved in the SEPA process. They have recognised that the implications of SEPA extend to their UK business too. Ladies and Gentlemen, SEPA is not just about cross-border payments in euro and in continental Europe, it is about changing the retail payments infrastructure throughout the whole of Europe, including the UK, about bringing it up to a higher level of efficiency, quality and security. For example, the European PSD will significantly reduce transaction times to a maximum of three days and requires full transparency on the currency conversion. This will bring significant benefits to all bank customers – consumers and corporates, also in the UK. Let me in the following give you three major achievements of the SEPA process and outline briefly the way forward of the SEPA project. What has been achieved so far, and what are the next steps? The SDD launch has been the greatest SEPA achievement this year, and perhaps even of the entire project. The preparations for the launch of SEPA Direct Debit have taken up a lot of the banking industry’s time and energy.