We do not know yet how the initiative will be implemented and what effect it will have on our relationship to the EU. Consequently, the economic impact of the popular decision cannot really be properly quantified at the moment, and this is why it has not been included in our forecast. For 2014, we continue to expect economic growth of around 2%. Inflation in Switzerland and the SNB’s monetary policy The greater economic momentum which we are forecasting will gradually lead to a better utilisation of production capacity. The underutilisation which still prevails continues to restrain consumer prices in Switzerland. Declining inflation abroad and the slightly stronger Swiss franc are having a similar impact by dampening imported inflation. Thus the SNB’s inflation forecast shows that there is no risk of inflation in the foreseeable future. In 2014, inflation in Switzerland is likely to amount to only 0%. In addition, the international environment is still giving rise to high levels of uncertainty. Consequently, the danger that the Swiss franc, as a safe haven, might suddenly be subject to further upward pressure has not been averted. Short-term interest rates are practically zero. For this reason, the minimum exchange rate is the right tool to avoid an undesirable tightening of monetary conditions, since an appreciation of the Swiss franc would lead to a further decline in import prices and a renewed threat of deflation. Given this situation, the SNB is maintaining the minimum exchange rate of CHF 1.20 per euro.
The scepticism was clearly expressed by Kåre Willoch, who was prime minister when the new Act came into effect in 1985: “[Nicolai Rygg] was held primarily responsible – and  15  In 1926, Minister of Finance Holmboe, of the centrist-liberal party Venstre, said: “It is however a well known fact that wherever governments have assumed authority over the national bank, the outcome has been unfavourable because vested interests have been so considerable and the temptation so strong that it was impossible to resist, and the government has helped itself to the national bank’s cash…”. In Francis Sejersted (1973): Ideal, teori og virkelighet. Nicolai Rygg og pengepolitikken i 1920-årene. [Ideals, theory and reality. Nicolai Rygg and monetary policy in the 1920s]. J. W. Cappelens forlag. 16  In Francis Sejersted (1973). 17  Berge Furre (Norwegian historian, theologian and politician for the Socialist Left Party), (1999): “Norsk historie 1905–2000: Industrisamfunnet – frå vokstervisse til framtidstvil” [History of Norway 1905–2000: from confidence in growth to doubts about the future], Det Norske Samlaget. 18  For a lively description of the personalities governing the large central banks in the 1920s, see Liaquat Ahamed (2009): The Lords of Finance. The bankers who broke the world. Penguin Books.