Although the international economic outlook is somewhat less favourable than in March, the upswing in the global economy is likely to be maintained in the months ahead. In the US, in particular, the latest production and labour market indicators have been disappointing. Due to the high commodity prices and the production losses in Japan, the SNB has revised its 2011 growth forecast for the advanced economies downwards to some extent. Moreover, numerous countries are planning to undertake additional cost-cutting measures in the year  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  ahead. The rise in commodity prices since autumn of last year is expected to result in significantly higher inflation worldwide in 2011. Swiss economic outlook According to the SECO estimate, the growth of real GDP in Switzerland slowed in the first quarter, mainly because of the muted advance in private consumption and equipment investment. By contrast, exports recorded a marked gain as a result of robust international demand, particularly from Germany and Asia, despite the strength of the Swiss franc. The strong momentum in construction also supported growth. Utilisation of technical capacity continued to pick up and was above the long-term average in manufacturing; in the construction sector it actually attained a record high level. The recovery on the labour market also continued. After a massive increase during the crisis, measures introducing short-term work have largely been retracted. In May, the seasonally-adjusted unemployment ratio decreased to 3.0% and companies are reporting more difficulties in recruiting qualified employees.
On all new measures, there has always been a lot of prior discussion, after which we have always managed to make a decision. The debate is not only about whether we should do it at all but also about when we should do it. Some believe that should have started buying bonds months ago, others think that we should do it maybe later or that we should do it straightaway. There are not two opposing camps; it is much more complex than that. And many of us have held certain views but have changed their minds over time, wondering whether quantitative easing was the only way to maintain price stability. Whatever we do, it  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  must be a common Eurosystem programme, in which all national central banks take part, with clear rules and coordinated by the Governing Council. No one should be excluded, no one should be allowed to purchase more than others. We have had negative inflation figures last week. Isn’t that an argument to start now? C.N. This is not about negative inflation figures at a point in time, but rather about the risk of having either negative of very low inflation for a too long period of time. Expectations could then change, resulting in less consumption and less investment. The credibility of the ability of the ECB to keep price stability must not be jeopardised. Should the ECB limit its purchases to highly-rated bonds? C.N. It is too early to answer your question.