Based on the latest microeconomic information available,17 it is estimated that the increase in interest rates since the start of this year (of 1.6 pp for the 12-month EURIBOR,18 the main interest rate to which the stock of mortgages in Spain is linked) will lead to a rise of almost 2 pp in the proportion of households with a high net interest burden.19 This effect would be most pronounced among indebted households between the 20th and 40th percentiles of the income distribution.20  17  This exercise was conducted drawing on information from the 2017 Spanish Survey of Household Finances (EFF by its Spanish abbreviation). The latest Financial Stability Report includes the results of the exercise for various interest rate hike scenarios. It was found that the proportion of households with a high net interest burden would rise by 1.2 pp, 2.3 pp and 3.9 pp, respectively, if interest rates were raised by 100 bp, 200 bp and 300 bp. 18  The 12-month EURIBOR has risen from -0.501% at 31 December 2021 to 1.091% at 20 June 2022. 19  The net interest burden is considered to be high when the ratio of (debt service expenses - interest income from deposits) to household income is over 40%.
2  The General Council of the Riksbank's comments 1997-02-06  BIS Review 9/2002  3  With regard to the labour market, it should be clear that the functioning of the labour market and the high level of unemployment no longer comprise as strong a restriction as they did in the mid-1990s. Unemployment in Sweden has fallen. Several factors have played a role in the decline. One of these is probably the fact that the wage formation system has been changed in a way that contributes to better concordance between productivity and wage growth. Nevertheless, there are clear signs that the labour market still comprises a problem area. A clear majority of the EU member states has now joined the monetary union, which was not evident when the Calmfors Commission made its assessment. The political cost of remaining outside of EMU has thus become greater, and public opinion has become more positive towards membership. I personally think that there are also new arguments that should be considered with regard to the costs of remaining outside the union. For instance, the economists Andrew Rose and Torsten Persson have made in-depth analyses of the effects on trade of a monetary union. There could be reason to believe that the positive effects are slightly greater than was assumed in connection with the Calmfors Commission's report.