As I have already said, a significant part of the responsibility for the low growth potential of the Spanish economy lies with the limited use of labour. In my opinion, this is closely related to the structural shortcomings that have, for decades, hampered the operation of the Spanish labour market. These shortcomings not only result in insufficient use of this productive resource, but also give rise to a further factor that limits the growth of productivity in Spain relative to other European countries. The Spanish labour market displays two undesirable stylised facts. First, it is characterised by the persistence of significantly higher unemployment rates than in other European countries, even in upswings. Combating high unemployment and, in particular, its long-term component requires the appropriate instruments, in the form of active labour market policies, in order to increase the employability of persons who have lost their jobs, so as to avoid a permanent deterioration in their human capital and in the growth potential of the economy overall. 9  See P. Cuadrado et al. (2020), A sectoral anatomy of the Spanish productivity puzzle, Occasional Paper No 2006, Banco de España. 20  Second, the unemployment rate fluctuates sharply, which means that inequality also increases substantially during crises. These sharp cyclical fluctuations in unemployment are explained by the high rate of temporary employment and the low protection of workers with temporary contracts compared to those with permanent ones, which means that employment adjustment in recessions falls on temporary workers.
Thus, for instance, only 77% of the hotel establishments that had opened in August 2019 did so in the same month in 2020, and only slightly over 40% of hotel rooms offered were taken up. On the information available, it is even possible that tourist activity may have worsened in September, given the high level of cancellations of prior reservations, the step-up in the year-on-year decline in air traffic and the downturn in spending using cards issued by non-residents. And, evidently, the latest pandemic-related developments in Spain do not contribute to brightening the outlook for these sectors of activity in the coming months. 2  Beyond the short term, the outlook for the Spanish economy, as for other countries, is shrouded in uncertainty, linked to how the pandemic evolves. This is why the Banco de España opted, in its publication dated 16 September,2 to present more than one scenario in relation to the possible course of the economy over the next two years, as it had already done last April and June. In this case, two scenarios were released. They share a common assumption about an effective medical solution being found and widely distributed among the population as from the second half of 2021. That is in line with the time horizon which, despite the high uncertainty, epidemiologists appear to be tentatively viewing as most realistic. The difference between the two scenarios lies in the assumptions made about the course of the epidemiological situation in the coming quarters.