I would like to remind you that as far back as this summer the oil price exceeded $ Therefore the baseline scenario is built on the basis of the average annual oil price in 2015, which will be slightly below the average price in 2014. Further on, we project a gradual downward  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  adjustment of the average annual oil price. If necessary, we shall review the base assumptions of oil price before submitting the final draft of the document to the State Duma. Another difference of the forecast prepared by the Ministry of Economic Development is in the fact that its projected 2015 inflation is 5.0–6.0%, which is higher than the forecast of the Bank of Russia. In our assumptions we expect the exhaustion of the factors that have caused the rise in inflation this year, and in the baseline scenario, we assume that the inflation will reach 4–4.5%. According to our estimates, the difference between the key parameters of the federal budget, calculated on the basis of the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development (this is the way the draft budget is calculated) and the one calculated on the basis of the Bank of Russia forecast, is also insignificant. The federal budget deficit in 2015–2017 will remain low.
Thus, even in an economic boom, employers can hold back wage increases without the risk of losing valuable labour. Of course, these changes in wage formation may vary considerably in different economies. But they interact with each other due to the global 2 Read more at: https://www.riksbank.se/sv/finansiell-stabilitet/det-finansiella-systemet/betalningar/  3 The risk of unemployment is one of many factors behind wage expectations. The experience of unpleasant mac-  roeconomic events characterises the behaviour of different age categories, as discussed, for example, by Malmendier and Nagel in “Depression babies: Do macroeconomic experiences affect risk taking?” (The Quarterly Journal of Economics 2011)  3 [5]  market for goods and to a growing part of the service sector also being traded globally. The increase in the number of self-employed people, the many part-time positions and the changed wage composition are factors that tend to crop up as explanations for low wage growth in other economies but which I consider to be less important for understanding wage formation in Sweden. On the other hand, what is special for Sweden is that we have become many more on the labour market. The number of persons between 15 and 74 in the labour force increased by just over half a million between 2006 and 2016. This increase is largely due to high immigration but the labour force is also growing due to changed rules and reforms on the labour market and to tax, benefits and pension rules.