That would, of course, be grounds for us to contemplate further easing in our monetary stance. That follows because our inflation target is, importantly, a symmetrical one: we need to be just as ready to contemplate easing if we see evidence on the downside of the economy underperforming, and hence the likelihood of inflation running over time materially below our 2 1/2% target, as we would be to exercise restraint on the upside. We take this symmetrical nature of our responsibility very seriously and there is undoubtedly a significant risk that the US slowdown could have a material dampening effect on UK activity. Analysts have used a large part of the alphabet to try to describe various views of how the US economy may develop. I am not sure that I find any of these pictograms particularly helpful, not least because people are sometimes pretty vague about vital details like the dimensions of the letter they favour or the angle of its arms: a big V, after all, can feel awfully like a U when you are down the bottom and trying to find your way up again. The short answer is that none of us can pretend to know precisely how the story will develop. It will be important to keep an open mind and be prepared to adapt our assessment in the light of actual events. But in doing so, there are four considerations that I would suggest are particularly germane to this first area of uncertainty.
But it is also a situation in which cost and price pressures can begin to build up. The task of the MPC is to ensure that this does not happen, by keeping inflation in line with our target so that the economy can continue to grow at a sustainable rate. The uncertainties I have described thus lie in both directions: the economy could grow more strongly or less strongly than we currently project, though the risks lie predominantly on the downside. The uncertainties are probably rather greater than normal just at present, but we can take some confidence from the underlying soundness of the economy. So we address the uncertainties from a position of strength. That does not mean that the ride may not be bumpy at times, but it does mean that we have grounds for reasonable optimism that we will come through the present uncertainties in good shape. 4  BIS Review 22/2001