However, it should be noted that the slowdown in inflation was aided significantly by one-off factors such as the strengthening of the ruble thanks to higher oil prices and last year’s good harvests. Through the concerted efforts of OPEC and other oil producers, the oil market has become more stable in recent months and oil prices have increased. Oil prices have gained a firm foothold over a relatively broad range. This provides more stability in understanding long-term trends. Nevertheless, the range of scenarios that could evolve in the near future remains quite wide. As you will doubtless be aware, the baseline scenario adopted by the Bank of Russia assumes that oil prices will adjust to a level of $ per barrel in the short or medium term. However, the alternative scenario we have forecasted assumes a gradual increase in the price of oil, and this too seems entirely possible. Under highly volatile conditions in the terms of trade it is very important to have a budget that is not susceptible to external fluctuations, including those arising from the commodity supercycle. Last year we adopted a programme of fiscal consolidation to aid in the stabilisation of budget 1/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  expenditures. Beginning this year an interim fiscal rule has taken effect, under which oil and gas revenues resulting from the higher than expected cost of base-level oil are directed to the Reserve Fund.
Today we will summarise our intermediate results and progress we have made so far. From the beginning of 2016 to March of this year, outstanding foreign currency loans went down by almost $ billion. This was partly offset by an increase in outstanding ruble loans, which grew to 514 billion rubles. We can also see a decrease in foreign currency lending, mainly in those industries where companies lack so-called natural hedging. Once again this refers to businesses in the construction and real estate industries, as well as wholesale and retail trade. For exporter companies the situation remains unchanged, and banks continue to make foreign currency loans to them. In 2014–2015, exporters’ external debt presented a significant potential risk to financial stability. The high number of maturing loans was a cause for concern, and we were carefully monitoring the schedule for upcoming repayments. This spike in external debt repayments has since passed. In the first quarter of 2017, the 27 largest companies repaid a combined total of $ 3/6  BIS central bankers' speeches  billion in external debt. They will repay a further $ billion by the end of 2017 (April – December), which is 22% less than the payments made in the same period of the previous year $ billion). Now, given the recovery in economic activity in the world and in Russia, as well as the increase in attractiveness of Russian borrowers, there is the potential risk that these borrowers will accumulate excess foreign currency debt.