It will then return gradually to 3% by the second half of 2013, to stay in the neighborhood until the end of the projection horizon, this time the third quarter of 2014. The CPIEFE will converge to 3% later than foreseen in June (figure vi). This trajectory assumes that wages will be adjusted according to productivity and the inflation target. A methodological assumption is that the RER will remain around its recent figures during the forecast horizon. Finally, the baseline scenario uses as a working assumption that the MPR will remain stable over the short term. The baseline scenario reflects the developments that the Board believes to be the most likely to occur with the information at hand at the statistical closing of the Report. However, there are risk scenarios that, if materialized, might change – significantly, in some cases – the macroeconomic outlook and, therefore, the course of monetary policy. On this occasion, after evaluating the alternative scenarios, the Board estimates that the risk balance for output and inflation is unbiased. Abroad, the risks described during the past several quarters have not changed significantly. The situation of the Eurozone is complex. The materialization of the announcements will not be easy and the passing of time will bring more problems to the economies of peripheral Europe, so a severe aggravation of the financial crisis in the Eurozone or even more extreme scenarios with systemic implications cannot be ruled out.
It cannot therefore be argued with great conviction that it is possible to identify one particular interest rate forecast that provides the indisputably “best” trade-off in monetary policy. More often than not, there will be a number of possible interest rate paths that might be said to provide a reasonable balance in view of the uncertainty involved. The results of this trade-off are presented in the Monetary Policy Report in the form of a chart that presents central projections for the interest rate, inflation and capacity utilisation in the economy. The formulation of a precise inflation target, our projection for the interest rate 3-4 years ahead and our desire to achieve a balance between output and inflation stability may perhaps give an impression of excessive optimism with respect to managing the economy and invite a repeat of earlier attempts to fine-tune the economy. But it is important to bear in mind the lessons drawn from the 1970s and 1980s, i.e. high stabilisation policy ambitions may lead to wide fluctuations in the economy, with high and variable inflation. In our conduct of monetary policy, we must not underestimate the uncertainty surrounding the decisions taken. Even if Norges Bank publishes an interest rate forecast, this does not mean that the interest rate will follow this precise path throughout the projection period. Forecasts of inflation, output, the interest rate and other variables are based on an assessment of the current situation and a perception of how the economy functions.