Since the summer, the exchange rate has fallen by almost 20%; and oil prices have fallen by around two-thirds, both of which will boost demand. No one can know at what point the impact of all this stimulus will have a visible effect on activity; the lags in economic policy are notoriously long and unpredictable. But welldesigned policies implemented within a consistent policy framework will eventually work. BIS Review 8/2009  5  1. Ten largest monthly falls in UK equity prices  Percentage change on a year earlier  South Sea  Aug-Sep 1720  Black Monday  Oct-Nov 1987  South Sea  Sep-Oct 1720  10 Se p-10 O ct 2008  10 Sep-10 Oct 2008  Oil shock & secondary bank crisis  Nov-Dec 1973  Oil shock & secondary bank crisis  Jul-Aug 1974  France fall to Germany  Jun-Jul 1940  Oil shock & secondary bank crisis  Feb-Mar 1974  Unexpected rate hike  Aug-Sep 1981  Oil shock & secondary bank crisis  Nov-Dec 1974  2. Chinese electricity production 30 20 10 0 September 2008  -20 Jan 01  -60  -40 -20 Percent change  Jan 03  Jan 05  4.
Baltic dry index (monthly averages)  Percentage change, latest three months on previous three months  Percentage change on a month earlier  3  80  2  60  1  40 20  0  0  -1  -20  -2 September 2008 Jan 01  Jan 03  Jan 05  -40 September 2008  -3 -4  Jan 07  Jan 01  Jan 03  Jan 05  Jan 07  -60 -80 Jan 09  9. Consensus forecast for world growth forecast for 2009 calendar year growth  September 2008  Jan-08  M ar-08  M ay-08  Jul-08  Sep-08  5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0  Nov-08  Survey dates  BIS Review 8/2009  7