Figure 20: Risk Premium Indicators 2008 yılının Ağustos Ayına Göre Ülkelerin 5 Yıllık CDS Değişim Oranları (29.08.2008 değeri, 1 olarak alınmıştır) 5.5  Turkey Türkiye Brazil Brezilya S. Africa G.Afrika Macaristan Hungary G.Kore S. Korea  4.5 3.5  900 800  EMBI+ Türkiye  700  EMBI+  EMBI+  600 500 400  2.5  300 1.5  EMBI+ Turkey  200  0609  0109  0808  1007  0308  100  0809  0609  0409  0209  1208  1008  0808  0.5  Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. In the third quarter of 2009, in line with the improvement in global risk perceptions, capital inflows towards emerging markets through portfolio movements increased and currencies of the said countries began to appreciate (Figure 21). Turkey was no exception to this development. This development prevented the hikes in commodity prices in the third quarter to translate into domestic unit costs. Figure 21: Exchange Rate Developments  Brazil Brezilya Chile Şili Czech Rep. Çek Cumh.
I will then discuss the other side of global economic integration, namely the interdependencies between countries and markets. At the end of my remarks, I will offer some thoughts on what is likely to change with regard to monetary policy if global economic integration were to decrease again as a result of the war. Monetary policy in an integrated global economy The world has become increasingly interconnected economically over the past decades. Until a short while ago, we thought these ties would continue to become closer. The US-China trade dispute of recent times had already cast some doubt on the durability of global integration. The coronavirus pandemic has restricted mobility and strained global supply chains. However, the geopolitical confrontation we see today has an entirely different dimension. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reopened old rifts in many respects. We therefore have to ask what the consequences would be if the economic fragmentation already caused by the war were to persist, or even increase further? To assess this, I would first like to look briefly at the process of globalisation over the past thirty years or so. At the beginning of the 1990s, the erstwhile closed-off states of the Eastern bloc gradually began to open up, and so too did China and other Asian countries. Since then, economic integration worldwide has been considerable. Today, the value of goods and services traded internationally is three and a half times higher than it was then. Average real per capita income worldwide has increased by two thirds.