However while such measures have removed near-term uncertainty, they could prove insufficient to provide a lasting change in the negative sentiment of investors on the mediumterm if budget deficits and debt situation are not considerably improved. In this context, European authorities have to show their strong level of cooperation and commitments to global and common solutions. Any unilateral and uncoordinated decision may notably prove to be less efficient and may amplify markets volatility. Finally, the removal of vulnerabilities in the banking sector is desirable to alleviate uncertainties. Effective risk management, transparency and robust business models are essential to strengthen banks’ resilience to shocks and to ensure adequate funding of real economy that underpins sustainable growth and financial stability. The effective and timely implementation of the G20 policy orientations is necessary to build the new international system on a solid and stable ground. This is notably the case for the G 20 provisions on the CDS market and on credit rating agencies. One cannot deny that certain OTC derivatives (CDS for instance) or certain types of transactions (short sales) are likely to exacerbate price movements or create instability that are detrimental to both issuers and investors. One may thus find it tempting to ban or drastically limit this type of operations and we indeed have observed national proposals going in that direction, including the bank of naked CDS, naked short sales or mandatory shorter time horizon for settling transactions. I am of the view that such measures may not be efficient and, worse, may be counterproductive.
Overall, although liquidity remains ample, it is unlikely at this stage that it will give rise to inflationary pressures, given the current economic environment and the expectation that some of the portfolio shifts will be reversed once the financial market uncertainty diminishes. This assessment is supported by the continuing moderate growth of loans to the private sector, particularly to non-financial corporations. As regards the information under the second pillar, recently published data and survey information indicate that economic growth in the euro area remained subdued around the turn of the year and that the overall sentiment in the economy remained lacklustre. While these indications suggest that growth dynamics will remain weak for the early part of this year, the most likely scenario remains that of a gradual increase of real GDP growth rates, starting in the second half of 2003. The current low levels of interest rates should contribute to this scenario materialising. In addition, while the appreciation of the euro over recent months is likely to contribute to a dampening of export growth to some extent, this should be counterbalanced by the assumed recovery in the world economy. In this respect, it should also be taken into account that the price competitiveness of euro area companies remains favourable in a medium-term perspective. At the same time, uncertainty regarding the economic outlook remains high, in particular due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions.