This means that domestic demand may be lower at the same time as the situation abroad dampens net exports. In the main scenario the Riksbank counts on GDP growth rates of 1.7 per cent this year and just over 2 per cent in each of the next two years. This means that we have revised the one- and two-year forecasts downwards by four tenths of a percentage point. Resource utilisation is judged to be comparatively high at present despite the economic slowdown. Together with the cautious recovery, this suggests that the path of inflation in the coming years will be relatively stable. In the main scenario we count on underlying inflation (UND1X) being 1.8 per cent one year ahead and 1.9 per cent after two years. As always, the spectrum of risks around this main scenario is also relevant for the formation of monetary policy. The financial market developments have, as I mentioned, heightened the uncertainty about the extent to which the stock market fall and poor earnings prospects are tending to subdue consumption and investment abroad and in Sweden. It is conceivable that the fall to date will dampen consumption more than the main scenario assumes. If the international stock markets were to continue their negative development, or if the effects of the fall become more extensive, the outcome for the Swedish economy could be considerably less favourable. Such a situation would also entail lower inflation.
Our efforts should therefore be focused on jump-starting investment. However, and this was really the crux of my argument, we will only manage to stimulate investment if structural, fiscal and monetary policies mutually reinforce each other. 4  BIS central bankers’ speeches