The different surveys and asset prices can be read in more than a way in regards the true pace of normalization. Actually, the same as in June, the MPR implicit in swap contracts is lower than the one that can be inferred from the forward curve, mainly reflecting significant differences between the rates on non-indexed Central Bank bonds and swap contract as equivalent maturities. It is possible that these differences originate in the type of institutions operating in each market, which are not fully integrated, reflecting different preferences for instruments in pesos and in UF by resident and non-resident institutions. Similarly, this partial integration may mean that swap contract rates reflected more quickly and more intensely the movements of risk-free interest rates abroad. The baseline scenario of this Report uses as a working assumption an MPR trend that is comparable to the one observed in various expectations surveys (figure 11). Certainly, if actual conditions differ from those assumed in this baseline scenario, alternative policy measures will be required. Specifically, the Board believes that the scenario outlined here is subject to a number of risks. Considering that in June domestic demand – and output – already was showing faster than foreseen velocity, we cannot rule out gaps closing faster than assumed in the baseline scenario. Nor can we rule out that some part of that strength responded to merely temporary factors, such as the earthquake, and output will slow down before we think. In the global context, several risks are still latent.
(2) Red diamonds correspond to forecasts in the central scenario of June 2023 MP Report for each year in 2023-2025 period. (3) For oil: WTI-Brent average price per barrel. Sources: Central Bank of Chile, Bloomberg, and FAO. 18  Figure 20  MPR corridor (*)  (quarterly average, percent)  25.II  25.I  24.IV  24.III  24.II  24.I  23.IV  23.III  23.II  23.I  22.IV  22.III  22.II  22.I  21.IV  21.III  21.I  21.II  Jun.23 corridor FTS EES Mar.23 corridor MPR  13.0 12.0 11.0 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0  (*) The corridor is built with the methodology described in box V.1 in March 2020 MP Report and box V.3 in March 2022 MP Report. For details, see methodological note in figure II.10, June 2023 MP Report. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 19