There are still expectations of an increase in international interest rates, but market participants have lowered their growth and interest rate expectations as a result of high oil prices. Growth in the Norwegian economy picked up during the second half of 2003. The low interest rate has contributed to strong growth in private consumption and housing investment. Activity has picked up in service industries and the construction sector. High petroleum investment, the global economic recovery and a weaker krone through 2003 have improved conditions for manufacturing. Profitability is improving for mainland enterprises. There are signs of renewed growth in investment in a number of industries. Imports have expanded markedly. Potential growth in the Norwegian economy is estimated to increase somewhat more than normal this year as a result of increased competition and rationalisation in many sectors. This will contribute to fairly high growth in the Norwegian economy without the emergence of constraints on the supply of labour or productive capital. The high rate of growth in output nevertheless implies that the output gap will approach zero towards the end of 2004. The output gap is a measure of the difference between the actual level of output and potential output. Developments in the output gap provide a basis for assessing cyclical developments and can thus shed light on domestic price and cost pressures in the economy. It is difficult to know how high capacity utilisation is at any given time.
Financial needs are really driven by non-financial desires. People do not desire a housing loan or a fire insurance policy. People desire a house. To provide complete, holistic solutions, you need comprehensive customer data and you need a deep understanding of the customer journey. T h e customer data that most banks have are simply not sufficient to develop a good understanding of the financial situation or needs of their customers. Customers have multiple relationships, with deposits and loans, investments, insurance policies, and retirement plans, spread across many financial institutions. How many financial institutions advising a customer have a complete picture of the customer’s balance sheet – all his assets and liabilities? Some banks have started to offer aggregator services which consolidate financial information such as bank accounts, credit cards, loans, and investments from all the financial institutions serving their customers. This allows financial institutions to provide holistic financial planning. BBVA provides its corporate customers with a consolidated view of all their financial information from about 90 financial institutions. 3 / 10  BIS central bankers' speeches  Next, understanding the customer journey. Some banks have begun to offer their corporate customers complete, end-to-end solutions, based on a keen understanding of their customers’ work processes. United Overseas Bank in Singapore provides its corporate customers an integrated digital platform that enables the customer to: generate purchase orders and invoices with a few clicks; streamline its payroll process; and get up-to-date views of its financials.