We see that as we move further down on the list, fewer countries satisfy the criteria. Based on this approach, Norges Bank is among the five most transparent central banks, as we satisfy every criterion on the “natural order”. The point I will make by showing this is not to win transparency competitions, but to illustrate that transparency has many dimensions, and there is no unique way to measure it. As a general guideline, Norges Bank applies Wim Duisenberg’s definition of transparency: The external communication reflects the internal deliberations. 10 When assessing whether we should publish a given piece of information, we do not ask ourselves if there are any good reasons for publishing it. Instead, we ask ourselves if we have any good reasons for not publishing it. Usually, we find no convincing arguments for not publishing what we find useful in the internal deliberations. An argument often heard against publishing certain information is that the public might misinterpret it or put excessive weight on it. However, the danger of misleading the public by providing additional information could also be seen as an advantage: It forces us to be clear and pedagogic in our communication. Transparency is, however, not just a means to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy and discipline in the internal decision process. We should not forget that transparency is important for democratic accountability. Central banks have gained considerable independence during the last 20 years, and central bank independence is probably an important commitment mechanism for securing price stability.
The stabilising effect of the minimum exchange rate against the euro played a major role in this development, with goods exports declining only slightly in the first quarter, in an international environment that remained weak, while exports of services rose. An improvement in consumer confidence encouraged a substantial increase in private consumer spending. However, GDP growth was also supported by temporary effects. Value added in the banking industry benefited from the optimistic mood on the financial markets during the first months of the year. In manufacturing and the hospitality industry, however, activity declined, underscoring the particularly negative impact of the strong Swiss franc on these industries. For the second quarter, we expect a significant slowdown in GDP growth. Since the global economy is expected to recover slowly, and the value of the Swiss franc is still high, the demand for exports is likely to remain subdued, even in the subsequent period. The high level of uncertainty and the pressure on profit margins are impacting negatively on corporate investment. Only because of the unexpectedly strong winter half-year does the SNB now expect growth of around 1.5% for 2012. Swiss inflation outlook The inflation outlook for Switzerland has remained largely unchanged from the monetary policy assessment in March. Since the fourth quarter of 2011, the annual inflation rate has been in negative territory. This is mainly attributable to a base effect, because last quarter the price level remained almost unchanged from the previous quarter.