The statistics gathered from these talks – for example on firms' inflation expectations, but also on other evidence, such as changes in companies' price-setting behaviour – can be useful in assessing regime changes before they show up in the official statistics. Systematically collecting and evaluating as much information as possible is crucial. However, in a situation of exceptionally high uncertainty, a key challenge for policymakers is to find the right balance between waiting for additional information and not falling behind the curve. This brings me to the third principle for decision-making: determination. Determination The literature provides arguments for both a wait-and-see approach and more aggressive policies, depending, for example, on whether the uncertainty is related to measurement, the effectiveness of policies, or unforeseen developments. In practice, in an environment such as the one we face today, mixed signals on the persistence of inflation might tempt policymakers to postpone further reaction to inflationary pressures until uncertainty about future inflation has receded. Yet uncertainty must not mean indecision. A risk management approach to policymaking sometimes calls for decisive action. At times, the optimal policy decisions may be those that provide insurance against particularly bad, though very unlikely, events. The SNB's tightening of its monetary policy over the past year should be seen in this context. Towards the end of 2021, at a time when the inflation outlook was still relatively benign, we began to tolerate a certain nominal appreciation of the Swiss franc.
While climate policy is being strengthened in a number of countries, the international picture is also one of resistance to the introduction of effective measures. A stricter climate policy also raises difficult discussions about burden sharing - not least between mature advanced economies and emerging economies. It is not surprising then that the EU’s carbon tax plans are being met with accusations of protectionism. So far, it has been difficult to achieve a sufficient reduction in global greenhouse gases. Instead, emissions have increased. Emissions in advanced economies are still high (Chart 11). Emerging economies account for virtually the entire increase in global emissions in recent years. Since 1990, emissions have tripled in Asia, while they have been reduced by 30 percent in Europe. Chart 11 Emissions on the rise in emerging economies. CO2 emissons. Gigatonnes 35  35 Africa Americas ex. US Asia ex. China China US Europe  30 25  30 25  20  20  15  15  10  10  5  5  0 1850  0 1875  1900  1925  1950  1975  2000  Source: Our World in Data  At the same time, both energy consumption and living standards are low in many developing countries, and their emissions are barely visible in the chart. If these countries succeed in raising living standards, energy consumption will rise, which is unlikely to occur without higher emissions.