For 2024, the growth range is reduced by an equivalent magnitude, between 1 and 2% (between 2 and 3% in December). By 2025, the economy is projected to grow between 2 and 3% annually (table 2). We project that private consumption will continue to adjust in the coming period. Compared to December, this part of spending will fall less sharply in 2023 and rise more moderately in 2024. This projection assumes greater slack in the labor market, consistent with the expected 6  performance of the economy. It also considers greater uncertainty due to the external situation and that the local monetary policy will remain contractionary for a longer period of time. Access to credit will imply a more restricted consumption than in previous quarters, in line with the financial burden and delinquency of households that have increased rapidly in recent quarters, especially among lower-income households. All in a context of tighter international financial conditions. Our March 2023 Bank Lending Survey already reports a perception of lower demand for consumer credit and tighter lending standards (figure 13). Investment will continue to perform poorly this year and next. This assessment assumes a more deteriorated external scenario, greater global uncertainty and financial conditions that will remain constrained. Survey information —prior to the turmoil in the external banking sector— showed low levels of investment planned for the coming quarters (figure 14). The current account deficit will continue to tighten, to values in the order of 4% of GDP by the end of this year.
As foreseen in the central scenario of this MP Report, projected growth in the United States and Europe will be negatively affected by lower credit expansion and greater global uncertainty. This effect will be most visible in the second half of 2023 and early 2024. For these years, growth in those developed economies that are Chilean trading partners is expected to average 0.4%, which compares with the 0.7% forecast in December (figure 10). Emerging economies will face tighter financial conditions, which will also affect the external demand relevant to Chile. The better outlook for China after its reopening, together with the evolution of the copper and oil market balances, has been behind the improvement in our terms of trade, which are revised upwards from the last MP Report. This combines the better outlook for copper prices and lower projected prices for foods and fuels. For copper, our projected prices for this and the next two years are increased. We foresee an average price of 3.85 dollars per pound in 2023; 3.65 dollars per pound in 2024, and 3 and a half dollars per pound in 2025. Oil prices have been quite volatile due to the tensions in the financial markets in recent weeks and their possible implications for world growth. In addition, inventories have been accumulated and OPEC has recently announced production cuts. In the central scenario, the average Brent-WTI price is projected to gradually decline from 73 dollars per barrel in 2023 to 67 dollars in 2025.