13  -20  -10  0  Figure 3  Activity indicators  (index, December 2019=100, deseasonalized series)  110  Manufacturing output (1)  Retail sales (2)  110 110  110  100  100 100  100  90  90  90  90  80  80  80  80  70 12.19 Dec.19  70  03.20 Mar.20 China  70 06.20 12.19 Dec.19 U.S. Eurozone Japan  (1) Real series. (2) Nominal series. 03.20 Mar.20 U.K.  06.20 Jun.20  70  Sources: Bloomberg and Eurostat. Figure 4  GDP - selected economies  (quarterly change of deseasonalized series, percent)  20  First quarter  Second quarter  20  Comulative first half  Source: Bloomberg.
As for spending, after contracting by 4.2% this year, total consumption will resume positive growth in 2021 and 2022, consistent with a recovery in employment and household income, and with the positive short-term effect of the withdrawal of pension savings. Plus, the low base that will be left by this year’s contraction. The projection is that the recovery of economic growth will result in an increase in employment, albeit with lags that will vary according to the categories of occupations, sectors and activities involved. Thus, it is likely that, with the lifting of the strictest sanitary measures, employment in sectors such as construction and trade will show a significant upturn, as will self-employment. However, in activities more permanently affected by social distancing, changes in production methods or technology, the lags may be last much longer. In the short term, the expected recovery in consumption would be more biased towards goods—with a higher proportion of imports and a lower relative intensity of employment—than towards services. Thus, after rising by 6.8% in 2021, total consumption will reduce its expansion to 1.7% in 2022, considering that the temporary stimulus to household spending provided by the various income support measures will have dissipated and that 2021 will leave a higher basis for comparison. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), in particular its construction component, will recover as quarantines are lifted, especially in those works that were shelved.