6  3  Uncertainty about the distribution over time and the use of the NGEU programme’s funds also conditions the projections. In this case, as regards our December forecast, a delay in the investment expenditure financed by the programme in 2021 is assumed. Accordingly, the impact on GDP is expected to fall from 1.3 pp in December to 1 pp in the latest projections, with the estimated contribution for 2022 rising at the same time, as a result of the assumptions that funds not invested this year will be applied the following year. Based on these assumptions, GDP would grow by 6% in 2021 under the baseline scenario, dipping to 3.2% under the severe scenario and increasing to 7.5% under the mild scenario. Following a sluggish first half of the year, activity would quicken in the second half under the baseline scenario. Greater dynamism as from the summer would give rise to a powerful carryover effect in 2022, added to by the greater estimated impact of the European funds for next year, whereby GDP would post high growth in 2022 of 5.3%, before easing to 1.7% in 2023. These figures represent a downward revision of 0.8 pp in GDP growth for this year compared with those projected in December. The lesser momentum of activity in the short term and, to a lesser extent, the revised distribution of spending under the European funds largely account for this revision.
In the new banking package, the concept of “transition plans” is important. Under Article 76 of the proposed amendments to the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD VI)[13], a bank’s management board is required to monitor and address environmental risks arising in the short, medium and long term. [14] Banks have to make sure that their business model and strategy are not misaligned with the relevant Union policy objectives towards a sustainable economy and they need to manage potential risks from such misalignments. Article 11 TFEU, the requirement to integrate environmental requirements into the policies and activities of the Union, plays a role in supervision. The ECB has a duty to integrate the Climate Law’s neutrality objectives into its supervisory policies and activities. However, we have some discretion as to how we do this. After all, the climate neutrality objective affects the ECB’s mandate in many respects and Article 11 TFEU does not prescribe how the ECB should integrate the environmental requirements. Do not expect us to act to regulate or enforce environmental policies. We will stick to our mandate. Our mandate is to keep under control the risks that banks and the financial system are facing, and in that capacity we have to look closely at the risks that are building up in the banking sector as a consequence of the climate crisis. Lastly, I would like to draw your attention to the work of the Central Banks and Supervisors Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS).