Despite the fact that risk attitudes, as such, are positive, demand for safe investments and thus for the Swiss franc has remained particularly strong. Consequently, recent movements in the Swiss franc have been influenced not only by the divergence between the dollar and euro regions, but also by persistent safe haven flows. The discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate led to a very substantial but short-lived appreciation in the Swiss franc. The extent of this appreciation is shown in chart 3. The extreme movements in the exchange rate were accompanied by a sharp increase in volatility on the Swiss franc foreign exchange market. Since then, Swiss franc volatility has declined, although it remains high in a long-term comparison with the period prior to the financial crisis. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  At the same time, bid-ask spreads, i.e. differences between the best purchasing and selling offers, widened substantially following the end of the minimum exchange rate. These, too, have declined in the past few months, although the bid-ask spreads remain relatively large. In trade-weighted terms, the Swiss franc is no longer at the extreme levels that prevailed immediately after the discontinuation of the minimum exchange rate. However, it is still some 12% above the level at the beginning of the year. Thus, the Swiss franc is still substantially overvalued.
Main risks identified outside the euro area financial system  A main risk to the euro area financial stability is the possibility that concerns about the sustainability of the public finances persist, or even increase, with an associated crowding out of private investment (slide 5). The progressive intensification of market concerns about sovereign credit risks among industrialised economies in the early months of 2010 opened up a number of hazardous contagion channels and adverse feedback loops between financial systems and public finances, in particular in the euro area. The main reason for the severe deterioration of public finances was the activation of automatic stabilisers as a result of the marked contraction of economic activity which followed the collapse of Lehman Brothers. At the same time, because the structural fiscal deficits of a number of euro area countries were sizeable before the financial crisis erupted, fiscal deficits in those countries rose to very high levels. Added to this were the discretionary fiscal measures taken by many countries to stimulate their economies, following the adoption in December 2008 of the European Economic Recovery Plan. By early May this year, adverse market dynamics had taken hold across a range of asset markets in an environment of diminishing market liquidity. Ultimately, the functioning of some markets, such as the government bond markets in countries with a very negative fiscal outlook, became impaired, thereby triggering a significant widening of government bond yield spreads in these countries, as shown on Chart 1 on slide 5.