We are expecting employment to fall by around 300,000 persons from the peak in 2008 to a trough in 2011 and that unemployment will continue to rise to around 11 per cent (see Figures 15 and 16)  5  See the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators, 7 August, 2009, http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/45/9/43453886.pdf. 6  Economic Tendency Survey, July 2009, National Institute of Economic Research, 30 July 2009. 7  Institute for Supply Management (SILF) and Swedbank, 3 August 2009. 4  BIS Review 98/2009  After the recent monetary policy meeting new information was received from the Labour Force Surveys, which was roughly in line with our assessment. Employment fell by 1.7 per cent in June compared with the same month in the previous year and unemployment increased to 9.8 per cent. This was respectively two-tenths and one-tenth of a percentage point better than we had forecast. 8 Underlying inflation is in line with the inflation target of 2 per cent Inflation has fallen rapidly in recent months and is expected to become negative for a large part of the year. However, CPI inflation is strongly affected by interest rate changes and by changes in energy prices. It is therefore better to study the underlying inflation rate. Underlying inflation measured as the CPIF, where mortgage rates are held constant, is expected to be close to 2 per cent throughout the forecast period (see Figure 17). New inflation figures published after the most recent monetary policy meeting have also been roughly in line with our assessments.
Current account and public finances Per cent of GDP 12  12 Government net lending Current account  8  8  4  4  0  0  -4  -4  -8  -8  -12  -12 90  92  94  96  98  00  Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’ s forecasts. 02  04  06  08  10  12  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  22. Low repo rate over long period of time Per cent, quarterly average 7  7  6  6  90% 75% 50% Repo rate  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2 04  05  06  07  08  09  10  11  Note. The uncertainty interval is calculated using historical forecasting errors. 18  12  Source: The Riksbank  BIS Review 98/2009  23.