Since we published our Monetary Policy Report in July, new statistics have been published, which indicate that US growth is already beginning to slow down. According to the preliminary National Accounts for the second quarter of this year, GDP increased by 0.6 per cent compared with the first quarter, which is marginally less than the 0.7 per cent we were expecting, and less than during the first quarter. Employment in the private sector rose in July, but was still slightly lower than expected. US unemployment remained unchanged at the same time, at 9.5 per cent. There are also other signs of weakness. The housing market has not yet begun to recover from the deep fall in connection with the financial crisis. The purchasing managers’ index for the manufacturing industry in the United States fell from 59.7 in May to 56.2 in June and 55.5 in July. Although an index figure above 50 indicates growth in the sector, these listings are the lowest since December 2009. (Figure: Purchasing managers’ index). Inflation in the United States has fallen in recent months. Measured in terms of the consumer price index, inflation was 1.2 per cent, but when foods and energy are excluded, it was unchanged at 0.9 per cent. The relatively low inflation is linked to the low resource utilisation in the United States, among other things. Wages are also subdued. (Figure: Inflation in the USA).
According to Statistics Sweden’s first preliminary compilation of the National Accounts for the second quarter of this year, Swedish GDP increased by 1.2 per cent, compared with the first quarter (seasonally-adjusted). This is slightly more than the 0.9 per cent we have assumed in our report, and also slightly more than other forecasters have expected. GDP has thus increased for five quarters in a row and has recovered half of the large fall totalling 8 per cent that took place during the previous five quarters. (Figure: GDP per quarter). The picture of continued good growth is also supported by the National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic Tendency Survey, which was presented at the end of July. Although the indicator fell between June and July this year, the fall was marginal and the indicator still points to the mood among companies and households being much stronger than normal. (Figure: Economic Tendency Survey). The purchasing managers’ index in Sweden rose to 64.2 on the other hand, which can be compared with a figure of 62.4 in the previous month. It was primarily increased orders and production that contributed to the rise. (Figure: Purchasing managers’ index). Moreover, new statistics show that industrial production has continued to increase strongly, and slightly more than market expectations, while the production of services has remained at an almost unchanged level. However, industrial production is still far below the earlier peak levels. (Figure: Industrial and services production). Brighter labour market The recovery in the labour market has also continued.