In Japan, industrial production fell by 8.5% in just one month in November, and in Germany, the value of exports declined by over 10%. In the United States, over a million jobs were lost in the final two months of last year – the fastest rate of job losses in over 60 years. And in the United Kingdom, manufacturing output contracted at its fastest rate since 1980. Trade was badly affected – the Baltic Dry Index, an indicator of demand to ship materials around the world – fell at the fastest pace on record in October. For the world economy as a whole, consensus forecasts of growth in 2009 have been revised down from 3% to just 1% since September.1  1  See charts below. Sources: Chart 1: Composite indices from Global Financial Database, comprising of: East Indies share for 1693; Bank of England and East Indies shares from 1694 to August 1711; Bank of England, East Indies and South Sea shares from September 1711 to January 1811; Rostow's Total Index of Share Prices from 1811 to 1867; the London and Cambridge Economic Service Index from 1867 to 1906; The Banker's Magazine Index from 1907 to May 1933; the Actuaries General Index from June 1933 to April 1962; and the FTSE All-Share from April 1962 onwards. Data are monthly until 1965, then weekly until 1968, and daily afterwards.
No risk assessment is ever really complete and it is essential for all of us to keep up with what is going on to ensure that we are employing our resources as effectively and efficiently as possible, while achieving the dual objectives of risk-based AML/CFT efforts as well as ensuring legitimate customers have access to services. 23. So those are the three issues that I would like to highlight and which would be explored in the various sessions of this Conference. All in all, I would emphasise that the global AML landscape is an evolving one - geopolitical developments will continue to affect sanctions risks, criminals will come up with new ways of stealing money and of hiding and moving those money. Technology can hinder or help us in our AML efforts, and I have to say that although we are already doing a lot, we are far from having the perfect solution. The challenge that we face collectively, in the region, is to develop responses to existing and new risks that: Are agile and adaptable, while providing a framework of principles and rules that that we can all agree to and follow; Recognise innovation and make the best use of technology; and perhaps more importantly Challenge our established ways of meeting some expectations, and ensure the response always relates to effectiveness. 24. I note that you have a very full agenda the coming days covering these and other topics.