With few exceptions, all the advanced economies were already in a net debt position and many are now facing funding problems related to an aging population. If the global economy is to recover from the crisis, government debt must be stabilised fairly soon in order to prevent a string of crises in state finances. Norway is in a unique position due to government petroleum revenues. Monetary and fiscal policy have stimulated domestic demand and output. Growth in mainland GDP was higher in the second quarter than projected in the June Monetary Policy Report. Household consumption seems to be picking up again. Petroleum industry activity has also had a stabilising effect on the Norwegian economy. There are plans to develop a number of oil fields on the Norwegian continental shelf in the years ahead, but it is likely that these investments will require an oil price of more than USD 60–70 per barrel to be profitable. BIS Review 115/2009  3  The events of September 2009 spread rapidly to the firms in Norges Bank’s regional network. In August 2009, manufacturing enterprises reported that growth would hold up. In November, the turnaround was described as a “heart attack”. Norges Bank established its regional network in 2002. Regular interviews provide information about enterprises’ assessment of the economic outlook before other official statistics are available. This information is therefore an important part of the decision-making basis in the formulation of monetary policy. Statistics Norway’s quarterly national accounts are available about 50 days after the end of the quarter.
1 Firms became over-confident in their ability to hedge or exit positions if conditions changed, failing to recognise that many participants would be attempting to do the same and that market liquidity would then evaporate. Indeed, given a change in sentiment, the increased integration of financial markets transmits risks just as much as it disperses them. 1  2  See Bank of England Financial Stability Reports July 2006 and April 2007. BIS Review 50/2008  Banks’ funding thus became increasingly vulnerable to a sudden shift in financial market conditions. As covered extensively elsewhere, 2 the crystallisation of this risk in August 2007 led to a sharp decline in liquidity across a wide range of markets (as shown in Chart 3). Funding pressures intensified as asset managers lowered demand for asset-backed securities and complex products more broadly, to lower risks and to guard against pressures from their investors for early redemption. And as banks attempted to fund contingent claims, liquidity in wholesale term markets dried up – adding to the strain. A number of institutions across the globe, such as Northern Rock, IKB and Bear Stearns have succumbed to the pressure, necessitating public sector intervention to support financial stability. Section III: Defences against liquidity risks Banks have a range of defences to a sudden decline in the availability of wholesale funds. Recent developments have highlighted a number of limitations in these defences in addressing the recent system-wide liquidity shock. One potential counter-measure to liquidity pressures is to transform illiquid assets into cash.