In the central scenario, the projection that activity will accumulate several quarters of contraction is maintained. Accordingly, the activity gap will turn negative by the beginning of 2023, flatting out until the end of the policy horizon, which is necessary for bringing inflation down towards the target. In the central scenario, GDP will grow 2.4% in 2022, then fall between –1.75% and –0.75% in 2023 and recover between 2% and 3% in 2024. This upward revision for 2022 responds to actual data, while the bulk of the downward correction for 2023 and 2024 responds to the new assumption for trend growth. The projection continues to assume that consumption and investment will post negative variation rates in 2023. This reflects a weakening of the labor market, pessimistic household and business expectations, a high real exchange rate, and tight financial conditions for all credit categories. On the fiscal side, it considers expenditure in line with the approved budget for 2023, which follows a consolidation path over the following years (table 1). The current-account deficit will narrow in the coming quarters, as the economy restores its balance between savings and investment. The drop of transportation costs from its peak will also contribute. In the central scenario, the current account will close 2022 with a deficit of 8.7% of GDP, then will decline to 4.9% in 2023, and to 4.1% in 2024. The boost that the Chilean economy will receive from abroad is downgraded from our September estimate.
Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 4 Cost pressures a) Transportation costs and bottlenecks (1) (standard deviations)  b) IMCE: Cost expectations (1) (2) (diffusion index)  Manufacturing  100  Freight/amount imported Supply Chain Pressure Index (2)  5  Construction  Trade  4 3  80  2 1 60  0 -1 -2  10  12  14  16  18  20  40  22  17  (1) Standard deviations from average. (2) Global Supply Chain Pressure Index. Sources: Central Bank of Chile based on microdata of Chile's National Customs Service and New York Federal Reserve. 18  19  20  21  22  (1) Value above (below) 50 indicates expected expansion (contraction). (2) Dashed horizontal sines show historical averages between January 2004 and November 2022. Source: Icare/Universidad Adolfo Ibañez. 11  Figure 5 Activity indicators (index, 2019Q3 = 100, deseasonalized series)  GDP  110  Non-mining GDP  100  90  80  70 15  16  17  18  19  20  21  22  Source: Central Bank of Chile.