If that happens, this summer’s crisis will influence the economy – and potentially the interest rates set by the MPC – for some time to come. Energy prices Let me now turn to the second of the global developments I mentioned earlier: higher energy prices. During the past month , the oil price has threatened to breach the $ a barrel. Just last January a barrel of oil cost $ four years ago, it cost less than $ Some of this is due to the weakness of the dollar. But the rise in sterling terms has been pretty spectacular too – from £ a barrel four years ago, to £ last January, to around £ now. At these levels, oil is almost back to its 1979 high, after correcting for inflation 3 . What’s going on? It’s always hard to disentangle underlying demand and supply factors from the speculative froth. It’s possible to point to some short run factors behind the recent surge. Stocks of oil across the OECD economies have been falling, at a time of year when they should be rising. This reflects temporary supply disruptions such as weather-related problems in Mexico and in the North Sea. As production comes back on stream, the market should ease. But short-run influences can only have this kind of leverage over the price because underlying market conditions are so tight. World demand for oil has been boosted by a strong world economy, led by booming emerging markets.
Cyber security The consequences of cyberattacks can be considerable. What we are now witnessing is probably just the beginning. We must find a suitable way to mitigate risk, without making our systems needlessly expensive. Cyber-security challenges are among the most significant challenges to our payment system. Without an efficient defence system, trust in the system can be undermined over time. For its part, Norges Bank is devoting considerable resources to securing its systems, oversight of activities and implementing measures to protect against cyber attacks. As part of oversight and supervision, we will increase our monitoring of cyber-security risks in the payment system. This requires cooperation, both nationally and internationally, to identify and combat cyberattacks. Nationally, this takes place through, for example NorCERT, part of the Norwegian National Security Authority (NSM), and for the financial sector through the Norwegian Financial Sector Cyber Security Center (FinansCERT) under Bits. The Nordic financial sector has established 3/5  BIS central bankers' speeches  Nordic Financial CERT as an extension of the Norwegian FinansCERT. The need for cooperation does not stop at a Nordic level. The challenges are international, and are shared by private financial undertakings, their service providers and subcontractors and authorities in many countries. Measures to promote cyber security are technically complicated and require specialist expertise. But it is management and boards of directors in institutions and companies that have the final responsibility and decide strategy and resource use. This responsibility cannot be delegated or outsourced to others. Owners and managers must be aware of their ultimate responsibility.