Since the June forecast the spectrum of risks has changed somewhat; the chances of inflation being higher than in the main scenario are now judged to be greater than the probability of a lower rate. The increased upside risk has to do with fears that inflation will react more quickly to the rising economic activity and that labour market shortages may be more serious and lead to a stronger development of wages. The assessment of an increase in upside risks is accompanied by less likelihood of a slowdown in the global economy. But there is still the risk of international activity being dampened appreciably in connection with a major correction of the high stock market prices and the financial imbalances that have been a feature of the American economy in recent years. Such a scenario would affect price tendencies in Sweden. The risk of financial bubbles, with serious real economic effects if they burst, is something that the Riksbank, along with other central banks, has to heed. Monetary policy In the late summer, at the monetary policy meeting on 12 August, the Executive Board had already noted that stronger economic growth in Sweden and rising resource utilisation pointed to growing upward pressure on prices. That in turn indicated that monetary policy might have to be given a less expansionary direction in the future. Two members of the Board even advocated a small repo rate increase in August.
The Central Bank forecasts the forthcoming inflation performance; this forecast is then compared to the targeted inflation rate; and the difference between the forecast and target determines the proper adjustment of the monetary political instrument. But, unfortunately or perhaps, fortunately, this relatively new monetary regime is not the rescue solution of a central banker’s affliction. I am confident that the honourable participants who are speaking during the three days of the seminar, shall enlighten in more details, based on the experiences of the central banks they represent, the complex issues and challenges they had to encounter, while adopting this regime. The agenda of this three-day seminar seems promising, and the interweaving of theory and practice is outstanding. It begins with the theoretical considerations on inflations targeting, proceeds with the three main pillars of monetary policy communication: independence, transparency and accountability. Not by accident, the new approach required by the inflation targeting regime has been defined as the “forecast path”. The distinguished economists from the Centre of Central Banking Studies shall introduce us to the econometric techniques, which come to help during the inflation forecast process. To conclude, the Czech National Bank, shall bring the experience of an economy in transition adopting this regime. And last but not least, on behalf of the Bank of Albania, I would like to thank the Centre of Central Banking Studies (Bank of England) for the opportunity granted to the institution I govern, to cooperate  1/2  and to consent the holding of this regional seminar in our country.