Moreover, the wage demands that have been presented are higher than before the previous round of negotiations. Wage outcome, wage expectations Nov-00 and unfilled job vacancies Per cent and thousands, respectively 8  45  7  40  6  35 30  5  25 4 20 3  15  2 1 0 1994  10 Wafe outcome (left scale) Faktisk lön (vänster skala) Arbetsmarknadens nov-00 (vänster skala) Wage expectations (leftförväntningar scale) Kvarstående lediga platser Unfilled vacancies (right scale) (höger skala)  5 0  1996  1998  2000  2002  Sources: Prospera Research AB and Statistics Sweden  5  BIS Review 107/2000  When it comes to judging future inflationary pressure, the degree of resource utilisation is the crucial concept, at least as long as inflation expectations are parked around the 2% target. The next chart is instructive here (Chart 4). As you know, we estimate total resource utilisation econometrically in terms of the output gap. If we take the October estimates as a starting point and project them with the accompanying GDP forecast, we find that for the first time in a number of years we look like having full or more than full resource utilisation in the years ahead. Perhaps the picture exaggerates the risk of future inflationary tensions. The cyclical position, for example, may be somewhat calmer than we counted on in October.
The same is true for your Study group: you are about to release a seemingly very attractive study on “net worth at risk” which aims at describing the ability of companies to face an external financial shock, with a focus on recent years: it will certainly attract a lot of attention when you publish this work. As it is time to conclude, I would like first to confirm that BDF, a founding member of the ECCSBO, is still very dedicated in all that is related with corporate analysis. Your presence here today is certainly the expression of a commitment similar to our own one; it is a good augur for your future works and an encouragement for our joint efforts to be pursued. Finally, I would like to thank personally President Manuel Ortega because I know all what you do to keep the dynamics of this Committee. Many thanks also to all of you for being here today, for your support and your participation in this meeting, because I have  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  no doubt that you will have fruitful debates. If I may, I would add a special thanks for my colleagues from the Companies Directorate and for the protocol office, who deployed a lot of efforts in organising this event for the better: without their help we wouldn’t have been able to meet at this venue. Thank you for your attention. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3