The benchmark figure used for the weighting is based on the top panel of Figure 1B in Mayer and Pence (2008): “Subprime Mortgages: What, Where and to Whom?” Finance and Economics Discussion Series Paper No. 2008-29, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System – available on the Board of Governors website at http://www.federalreserve.gov/PUBS/FEDS/2008/200829/200829pap.pdf. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  suggests that inflation is not likely to be a problem, then we can more comfortably align policy to continue supporting the recovery. Some observers and analysts have voiced great concern that the nascent economic recovery, combined with the actions of the Federal Reserve that have expanded its balance sheet, will lead to significant inflation. However, Figure 11 provides a variety of different measures of core inflation; core CPI, core PCE, trimmed core CPI and trimmed core PCE. It is striking how much all four series have declined. In fact many of these series are at their historical lows. Figure 12 shows the different measures of core inflation in the top panel, and the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet in the bottom panel. In the fall of 2008, the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet expanded significantly – but that period also corresponds to the emergence of disinflation (a reduction in the inflation rate) in the U.S. While monetary policy works with lags, why has the unprecedented increase in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet corresponded with continued significant disinflation?
Eric S Rosengren: Two key questions about the economic recovery Remarks by Mr Eric S Rosengren, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, at the New England Mortgage Expo, hosted by the Connecticut Mortgage Bankers Association and The Warren Group, Boston, Massachussetts, 14 January 2011. *  *  *  I’d like to thank the conference organizers for inviting me to speak with you today. The beginning of a new year is a good time to discuss the outlook for the economy. I will also try to answer a couple of the key questions that most everyone seems to be asking about, in relation to this recovery.1 As I’m sure you know, over the past several weeks we have been getting economic data consistent with a somewhat happier new year. A recovery that has been anemic for the past year and a half looks to be increasingly supported by private spending as 2011 begins. The Blue Chip forecast for 2011 has increased 4 tenths over the previous month, to 3.3 percent. And I am slightly more optimistic than the Blue Chip; my own forecast is for growth of 3.5 to 4.0 percent over 2011. This is certainly an improvement, but – soberingly – would still leave the unemployment rate close to 9 percent at the end of this year, a rate far above anyone’s estimate of full employment.