As a net importer of energy the sustained terms of trade shock to the UK from persistently high energy prices – and from the smaller but still significant increase in food prices and manufactured imports which also took place - has left the UK economy poorer. These price shocks have been the single biggest driver of the recession and very high inflation the UK economy is having to contend with. The ratcheting up in gas future curves has been a feature for most of this year (Chart 2). At the time of the August 2022 MPR the futures curve peaked at 450 pence per therm which would have implied average household energy bills of £ from October 2022, nearly three times higher than a year earlier. Although the futures curve has fallen back since and remains on a declining trend into the medium term, persistence has become more evident. Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P. and Bank calculations. Notes: Spot price is the one-day forward price of UK natural gas. Latest futures curve as of cob 21 November 2022. Bank of England  Page 6  In the November 2022 MPR the MPC moved to adopting the full futures curve for its conditioning assumption for the forecast of energy prices. In November 2021, energy prices directly accounted for only 0.8% of the inflation forecast for 2022Q4 compared to a direct impact of 3.8% in the latest forecast (Chart 3). Sources: Bloomberg Finance L.P., Department of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, ONS and Bank calculations.
Tarisa Watanagase: Future regulatory challenges for emerging markets – a case for Thailand Speech by Dr Tarisa Watanagase, Governor of the Bank of Thailand, at the Association of International Banks (AIB) Dinner Talk, Bangkok, 19 October 2009. *  *  *  Chairman, Board members and members of the Association of International Banks, Distinguished Guests, Ladies and Gentlemen First of all, I would like to thank you for inviting me to join you today. I welcome the honour and look forward to the opportunity of meeting you, especially at this important juncture in the history of global financial system development. In the past two years, we witnessed one of the most severe financial crises in modern time, and with it, a sharp impact on the global economy, especially after the demise of Lehman. Today, the global financial market has stabilized, albeit not having returned to normal, with many major parts still in retrenchment such as securtisation market. Today, an almost one year anniversary of the global fallout, the Dow Jones once again retraced its step, and touched 10,000 points. There are increasing positive signs of global economic recovery. Nevertheless, there are still significant uncertainty and downside risk, going forward. These include uncertainty on the exit policy of stabilization measures of various countries, the differential speed of adjustment of various regional economies, and not least, the impending challenge of regulatory reform demanded by the public at large. Throughout this turbulent period, Thailand’s financial system has remained resilient and stable.