Last year was exceptional, with euro area GDP growing by about 3% in real terms between the first quarter of 2017 and the first quarter of 2018, with the combination of strong growth in domestic demand and a rebound in international trade. This year, international trade dynamics seem weaker. It may be attributable to a delayed impact of the appreciation of the euro since the beginning of 2017. Temporary factors and supply-side tensions related to very high levels of capacity utilisation in some euro area countries also contributed to a moderation in economic growth in early 2018. In a nutshell, both demand and supply-side factors are at work, and our baseline scenario is surrounded by more uncertainty. So we must be prudent and carefully monitor economic developments. Why? 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  The level of uncertainty has increased. Protectionism, for example, is having an effect on business sentiment, which might already be holding back investment. It is still too early to tell. In addition, Brexit will have financial implications for firms not only in the United Kingdom, but at this stage no one knows what the final Brexit conditions will be. Are these uncertainties the reason for your prudence in the way the asset purchase programme is being concluded? Our baseline scenario still holds, but we must monitor the risks. This is why we decided to express an anticipation about the evolution of our net asset purchases. By doing so we are keeping what we call optionality.
Peter Praet: Interview in Expresso Interview with Mr Peter Praet, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank, in Expresso, conducted by Mr João Silvestre on 18 June 2018 and published on 23 June 2018. * * *  Is the asset purchase programme (APP) really going to conclude at the end of this year? What we did last week was to express an anticipation that net asset purchases would end at the end of the year. We didn’t say we were now deciding to stop the programme in December. We still have six months to go. We translated the increased confidence we expressed about developments in the economy and inflation into an anticipation about the APP. And, at the same time, we also enhanced the forward guidance on interest rates. But, in any event, to anticipate the end of the programme is to give a strong signal. What exactly do you mean by giving a strong signal? We undertook a careful review of the progress made towards a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation to levels below, but close to, 2%. It was a strong signal because, in spite of a recent moderation in euro area economic growth, we concluded that progress towards our aim has been substantial so far, and actually sufficiently substantial for us to be in a position to express this anticipation of an end to net asset purchases at the end of the year.