This is consistent with both lower terms of trade for Chile and tighter financial conditions, given the expected monetary policy response in the major economies. In addition, the projections consider a slowdown in the growth of our main trading partners (table 1). In the central scenario, the narrowing of the activity gap that began early this year will last for several quarters. Thus, GDP will see annual change between 1.5% and 2.25% this year, between zero and -1.0% in 2023, and between 2.25% and 3.25% in 2024. Regarding fiscal policy, for this three-year period, the projection envisages a spending path consistent with that reported in the last Public Finances Report (table 2). The Board estimates that, following the hike agreed at the June monetary policy meeting, further smaller adjustments in the MPR will be needed to ensure the convergence of inflation to 3% over the two-year horizon. Still, risks are still high, especially considering the level that inflation has reached and its long-lasting persistence. Risks surrounding the evolution of the macroeconomic scenario remain significant. The upper part of the MPR corridor reflects sensitivity scenarios where inflation could prove more persistent than expected. This could occur if private consumption continues to show no significant adjustment in the coming quarters.
Ardian Fullani: Recent economic and monetary developments in Albania Speech by Mr Ardian Fullani, Governor of the Bank of Albania, at the press conference on the Monetary Policy Decision of the Bank of Albania Supervisory Council, Tirana, 29 May 2012. *  *  *  Today, on 29 May 2012, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania reviewed and approved the monthly Monetary Policy Report. Based on the analysis of Albania’s latest economic and monetary developments, and following discussions on their performance outlook, the Supervisory Council of the Bank of Albania decided to keep the key interest rate unchanged at 4.25%. This decision reflects the Supervisory Council’s opinion that the actual monetary conditions are adequate to meet the Bank of Albania’s inflation target in the medium run. It holds the key interest rate at a record low, thereby maintaining the strong stimulating nature of monetary policy, in order to boost aggregate demand and economic growth. This decision also reflects the heightened uncertainty deriving from the external economic environment and, particularly, from the recent economic developments in Greece. Let me now proceed with an overview of the economic developments and key topics discussed at today’s meeting. *** Annual inflation marked 1.6% in April, continuing to pursue an upward trajectory over the last two months and approaching the lower limit of the target band. After marking a minimum low in February, the rising trend of inflation was expected and communicated by the Bank of Albania.