Ravi Menon: Economic dynamism amidst demographic change Transcript of remarks by Mr Ravi Menon, Managing Director of the Monetary Authority of Singapore, at the IPS Singapore Perspectives 2018, Singapore, 22 January 2018. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, good morning. I want to first thank IPS for the opportunity to share my thoughts with this large audience. I would also like to commend IPS for convening a conference on what is an important, existential topic: the implications of demographic change. I will focus my presentation on the economic implications of demographic change: what it means for economic growth and economic dynamism. The two are different. My presentation will centre around two broad themes. First, I will describe our demographic trilemma – the constraints and the choices we need to make. Second, I would like to argue that demographics is not destiny – why economic dynamism is not a numbers game and how we can remain dynamic amidst this demographic challenge. 1 / 17  BIS central bankers' speeches  Let’s start with the total fertility rate, or TFR. By the way, we must be one of the few countries in the world where most people know what TFR stands for! It is indeed an existential issue for us. The TFR is the starting point of all demographic analysis. Singapore has had a sustained decline in its TFR. Our TFR fell from around 1.8 in the 1980s (which is already below the replacement level of 2.1) to about 1.3 in the early 2000s.
The decentralised set-up of the Eurosystem - with the ECB representing the hub of the system and the national central bank its spokes - has contributed to the acceptance of the euro as the single currency of more than 300 million citizens, as in particular the national central banks are well-equipped, in terms of knowledge of language and national backgrounds, to communicate to the general public. Contrary to the public perception about other European institutions, the Eurosystem is being perceived as relatively close to the heart of the public. I am very pleased to chair tomorrow’s meeting of the Governing Council here in Rome. The fact that the Governing Council meets in Rome is symbolic, in many aspects. First, Rome is regarded as the cradle of the European-Christian civilisation, as we know it nowadays. The Roman Empire was the first attempt to create a unified Europe. Although this period in history has greatly contributed to the development of the European continent, this experience has also made clear that Europe cannot be unified by means of force, with some nations or peoples subordinated to others. Unfortunately, this was a lesson, which Europe had to learn the hard way. It took us almost 2,000 years to realise that the continuous perils of war and oppression had to end.