We must continue to do so if we want to win our economic marathon. Paterson showed us the need for a central bank. Its modern variant is a leading macroprudential institution, well equipped to face the challenges of promoting a balanced expansion. Hume demonstrated the virtues of free trade. The UK, already one of the most open economies, can help lead the development of new EU trade deals as our businesses diversify their markets. Smith showed us the importance of social capital. With a financial system that is a global good and a national asset, the UK is leading financial reforms to build a resilient global financial system with fair and effective markets at its core. And finally Wells and McColgan showed us the enormous pay-offs for hard work, dedication and perseverance. Winning the economic marathon will take similar determination. But the prize of a durable expansion is great and, if inspired by some of Scotland’s many heroes, we should not fail. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Chart 1: Average GDP growth (2008–2013) of UK export destinations(a)(b) %  11%  23%  4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5  2012 share of UK exports =66%  1.0 0.5  US, EU, Switzerland, Japan  (a) (b)  6  Commonwealth  Other emerging markets  0.0  Bars show the mean calendar-year GDP growth rate between 2008 and 2013 for all countries included in the groupings. UK export share data is not available for all countries.
In this age of increased connectivity and correlation of markets, respondents felt that a shock event such as a terrorist attack, pandemic or geopolitical instability could cause market disruptions. Respondents also highlighted the current liquidity in the financial markets. They observed that speculative liquidity was circulating in the financial system. This has led to historically unprecedented pricing and terms. When referring to the new players in the financial markets, respondents spoke of hedge funds and private equity in the same breath as “highly leveraged”, “covenant-lite structures” and “large speculative positions”. In the current low interest rate environment, many yield-hungry investors have become hedge providers for institutions. Respondents expressed concern about the systemic risks such providers posed and their default risk in a severe market correction. In summary, the responses to the survey indicated that there seems to be a heightened level of risk in the macroeconomic and financial environment. Nevertheless, these responses are encouraging from another perspective. They indicate that financial institutions are aware of this heightened level of risk. With acceptance comes preparedness for the risks that may materialize in future. It is important for banks not to become complacent. As banks pursue the many opportunities that lie ahead, we must not let our guard down. Banks must not be lulled into a false sense of security by the external environment’s bullishness and resilience to shocks so far. We must not allow ourselves to get over-confident with our knowledge and analyses of the risks out there. Risks may deviate from expectations.