However, with the normalisation of the external economic environment and opening up of access to the global capital markets for Russian companies, the investment demand will gradually recover. Implementation of large infrastructure financing projects, including energy export project in the framework of co-operation with China, will also contribute to the investment growth. According to our estimates, the decline in fixed capital investment will cease in 2015, and in 2016–2017 the investment growth rate will gradually pick up. The restrictions on the imports of certain food products introduced in August 2014 will be conducive for import substitution. The import growth rates will remain low in 2015. Against the backdrop of low growth in the world economy and in the external demand combined with a decline in energy prices, no significant increase in export growth is expected. The impact of these factors on export and import dynamics will result in a decrease of the current account surplus to $ billion in 2017, whereas the private capital outflow will be gradually reducing. In the baseline scenario, we expect an acceleration of the GDP growth from 0.4% in 2014 (these are our assessments for this year) to 1.0% in 2015, 1.9% in 2016 and 2.3% in 2017. At the same time, the inflation will gradually decrease to 4.5–5.0% in 2015 (I stress again, that these assessments are based on rather optimistic assumptions of the baseline scenario) and to 3.7–4.2% in 2016–2017.
We welcome the policy aimed at ensuring the sustainability of public finance, especially bearing in mind long-term risks which may be caused, firstly, by the demographic situation, secondly, by the escalation of pension system problems, and thirdly, by a possible fall in oil and gas revenues. These long-term risks are already in place, and, therefore, in our opinion, it is very important to maintain a conservative approach to budgeting process over a longer-term horizon. Besides, it is necessary to continue improving the efficiency of budget spending, particularly in terms of investment projects, in order to increase the share of expenditures that have a multiplication effect on the economic growth within the budget structure. It will also indirectly affect the monetary policy and the possibility of its easing. In our opinion, the Bank of Russia contributes to creating conditions for structural changes in the economy by decreasing inflation and keeping it at a consistently low level. Firstly, we need to bring the inflation to a low level, and secondly, we need to keep it there. In 2014, the Bank of Russia is completing the longstanding transition to the inflation targeting regime, and from 2015 it plans to conduct monetary policy within the framework of this regime. Why does the Bank of Russia pursue its previously set goals, in spite of the current difficult situation, high uncertainty of its future development and volatility of financial and foreign exchange markets?