Consumer price inflation among a number of our trading partners is high as a result of rising energy prices, but the increase in prices for other goods and services remains moderate. Continued solid growth among our trading partners is in prospect. As global capacity utilisation increases to a more normal level, demand for Norwegian exports might remain buoyant. More export enterprises are facing capacity constraints. Export growth in the years ahead will probably occur in industries such as the engineering and shipbuilding industries. Production growth is now high in these sectors, and employment is rising after declining for several years. High growth in the global economy has also pushed up prices for non-oil commodities. Rising commodity prices and buoyant activity in markets that are important for Norway have generated growth impulses to the Norwegian economy. Since May this year, commodity prices have varied widely, but on the whole edged up since end-June. International equity markets have stabilised since the turbulence in May, and have edged up since the previous monetary policy meeting. The benchmark index on the Oslo Stock Exchange is now at a good 12 per cent higher than at the beginning of the year. Interest rates are still low among many of our trading partners, in spite of the increases in several countries as a result of rising energy prices and higher consumer price inflation.
High electricity prices may lead to a pick-up in CPI inflation through 2006. However, the rate of increase in energy prices is still expected to slow as from spring next year. A fall in energy prices may curb CPI inflation as from 2007. The rise in prices for non-energy goods has been moderate in recent years. Price impulses from imported consumer goods have been particularly weak. Their contribution to inflation has been negative virtually every year since the mid-1990s, partly reflecting increased trade, a shift in imports  2  BIS Review 92/2006  towards low-cost countries and a substantial improvement in distribution efficiency in Norway. Price impulses from imported consumer goods are expected to continue to exert downward pressure on inflation in the period ahead, albeit to a lesser extent than in previous years. The rise in prices for domestically produced goods and services pushed up CPI inflation until this year, but since the beginning of the year this measure of inflation has edged down again. The 12-month rise in prices for goods and services produced in Norway, excluding energy, was 1.1 per cent in August, 0.2 per cent lower than in July. This is the lowest domestic inflation rate witnessed since autumn 2004. The reduction in day-care rates in January this year has pushed down domestic inflation by an estimated 0.3 per cent over the past year. The rise in prices has been lower than expected for both goods and services.