Unbeknownst to the other participants, one member in each group had been instructed to argue for the wrong answer within one of the question sets. They did their job well. The groups did very poorly on the set of questions where the conference organiser’s confederates argued for the wrong answer. 26 There is thus a danger that members of a group can be swayed by other members to make the wrong choice. But falling into the opposite trap – paying insufficient heed to others’ advice – is not unusual either. This is a pitfall that many people, who have been in management for a while, will be acquainted with. Psychologists have known that such  22  See more about this in Erling S. Andersen, Ingeborg Baustad and Åge Sørsveen (1994): Ledelse på norsk [Norwegian management], Ad Notam Gyldendal, Oslo, pp. 117–126. 23  Three in Switzerland and 22 in the European Central Bank. 24  See more about this in for example Alan S. Blinder (2008) and Anne Sibert (2006): “Central Banking by Committee”, International Finance 9:2, pp. 145–168. In September 2007 Norges Bank hosted a conference on monetary policy committees. The opening address was given by Alan S. Blinder, former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, and is one of the economists who has focused most on group decision making. Anne Sibert also attended this conference.
The author-narrator has embarked on an expedition to a South Pacific island with six companions. On the island they experiment with different forms of social organisation. After the group tries despotism, anarchy, democracy, etc., Loe concludes that enlightened despotism has much to recommend it: “Of course it very much depends on who the ruler is and how enlightened he or she is, but at its best this is probably one of the more sensible forms of government.” 16 Martin, one of the other members of the expedition, also thinks that this system might work well. He stresses, however, that the form of despotism must be a truly enlightened one: “Not just moderately enlightened, but ultra-enlightened. The ruler needs to be highly educated, plus be well travelled and have lots and lots of varied interests (…) Just find an exceedingly likeable individual, someone you trust, someone who is warm-hearted and good-natured, and ask him or her to manage things as best they can.” 17 Most people would probably argue that despite certain benefits, enlightened despotism would not be very robust. As you may have noted, a number of assumptions underlie Martin’s conclusion, and these assumptions are not always satisfied. Delegating decisionmaking responsibility to a group may help to guard against situations where the individual’s weaknesses and vested interests come to dominate. It can also provide some insurance  attending the IMF meeting). The business card revealed the date and magnitude of the British devaluation. It was a busy night.