Labour market indicators such as redundancy notices and the number of job vacancies are pointing to a continued rapid decline in the labour market. In the February Report our forecast is for employment to decline by almost 200,000 persons at the end of 2010, from the top level in 2008, and for unemployment to rise to around 9 per cent in 2010. However, our most recent forecast is that the current economic downturn will not be as severe as that during the crisis in the 1990s. On the other hand, we are assuming that it will be more severe than the most recent economic downturn in connection with the dotcom crash in 2000. This is indicated by the various measures of resource utilisation we regularly produce. Since the monetary policy meeting in February Statistics Sweden has published the National Accounts for the fourth quarter of 2008. GDP fell by just over 9 per cent calculated as an annual rate during the fourth quarter of 2008. This is the weakest rate of change measured during the period for which statistical comparisons are available, that is, since 1980. Our forecast in the February Monetary Policy Report assumed that GDP would fall by almost 4 per cent calculated as an annual rate during the fourth quarter. Inflation will fall rapidly In 2008 CPI inflation rose up to September. It then peaked at 4.4 per cent. Since then inflation has fallen rapidly. In January 2009 it amounted to 1.3 per cent.
Of great interest in any survey of its role in nation-building is Bank Negara’s promotion of forms of financial intermediation that are of special relevance to Malaysia's needs and culture. The Bank has been a pioneer in the promotion of microfinance, and a leading participant in the national agenda to promote a strong SME sector. Considerable funding and expertise have been devoted to these activities in recent years, with the result that the share of SME financing in total business financing has increased from 31% in 2000 to 44% in 2007. The experience and networks established in this field have been of great value in the Government's efforts to mitigate the effects of the current global financial crisis, which have included the recent launch of a substantial Micro  BIS Review 12/2009  1  Enterprise Fund. Like many other economies in this region, Malaysia is a land of small businesses, but the attention that has, during years of stability, been given to strengthening channels of finance to the smallest of enterprises offers lessons for all economies at this time of pervasive credit crisis. Bank Negara has also taken a prominent part in the development and advocacy of Islamic finance, which has seen rapid growth in the country since 2003, with annual growth rates in Islamic banking assets and insurance assets approaching 20%, and Malaysia now accounting for about 70% of all global sukuk issues. Islamic finance is increasingly recognised as an important alternative channel of financial intermediation, and not only within primarily Islamic communities.