So far this year, the price of Brent Blend oil has largely moved between USD 45 and 55 per barrel. In the past few weeks, it has hovered around USD 50 per barrel. Oil futures have also increased. Little excess production capacity in OPEC countries, combined with the prospect of lower production in non-OPEC countries, has probably influenced oil prices. At the same time, there are prospects of continued strong demand growth in important oil-importing countries, such as China and some other emerging economies. The IMF has analysed supply and demand in the oil market for the period ahead in the latest issue of "World Economic Outlook": With price expectations at around the current level and global GDP growth at approximately 3 per cent, demand for oil is expected to increase by around 2 per cent per year over the coming decades up to 2030. The rise primarily reflects higher demand for fuel for motor vehicles, particularly in non-OECD countries. An increase in per capita income in China will in particular lead to a sharp increase in car use. Output in non-OPEC countries will peak soon – in 5 years, according to IMF estimates. Higher demand will thus require higher output in OPEC countries. These countries have substantial oil resources, but are currently producing close to capacity. Production capacity must therefore be increased. Higher demand can thereby be met by non-OPEC oil producers operating at full capacity while OPEC passively accommodates any remaining demand by increasing its production capacity.
Jarle Bergo: The Norwegian economy - possibilities and challenges Address by Mr Jarle Bergo, Deputy Governor of Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at a seminar hosted by Agder Research Foundation, Arendal, 12 May 2005. Please note that the text below may differ slightly from the actual presentation. The address is based on the assessments presented at Norges Bank’s press conference following the Executive Board’s monetary policy meeting on 20 April, Inflation Report 1/05 and on previous speeches. The  Charts in pdf-format can also be found on the website of the Norges Bank. *  *  *  The Norwegian economy is growing at a solid pace and there are prospects that growth will remain high. The recession was mild after the previous expansion culminated in 2002. The period of relatively high cost inflation in Norway came to an end without production being impacted to the same extent as during the recessions in the early 1980s and around 1990. One of the main reasons for this is probably that low inflation in the 1990s and current monetary policy have anchored expectations of low and stable inflation among economic agents. Together with private consumption and fixed investment in the petroleum sector, traditional exports were an important factor underlying growth in the early stages of the recovery that started in the first half of 2003. Prices for many of our main export goods have risen as a result of strong growth in new markets.