6  The latest macroeconomic projections point to robust growth in the coming quarters once the vaccination programme has gathered pace and restrictions on movement have been progressively lifted. However, significant uncertainties remain as to the course of the pandemic itself, private consumption, tourism flows, the economic impact of the NGEU funds and the damage to the productive system caused by the pandemic. Against this background, there is still the risk of credit quality impairment being more pronounced in the future than has been observed to date, especially in the sectors hardest hit by the pandemic, and particularly once the support measures are gradually withdrawn. In fact, some signs of credit quality impairment were already observed in 2020. Specifically, Stage 2 loans6 increased substantially in 2020 (24.3%), and their growth has quickened in 2021 to date (37.5% in March). Meanwhile, although forborne loans continued to fall year-on-year, these declines have been far more moderate since the onset of the pandemic (-2.3% in March 2021, compared with -19.6% in March 2020). Lastly, NPLs increased in the consumer portfolio in 2020, growing by 23% (but slowing to 15.9% in March 2021). Deeper analysis of the growth of NPLs and Stage 2 loans in the business lending segment reveals that the sharpest increases occurred in sectors severely affected by the pandemic.
Second, the banking sector’s resilience during the crisis has benefited crucially from the decisive economic policy response (monetary, fiscal and prudential), which has substantially alleviated the impact of the crisis on the financial position of households and non-financial corporations, thus lessening the effect on financial institutions’ balance sheet quality. The decisions taken by macro- and microprudential authorities have also allowed the banks’ capital positions to improve during the crisis, and have authorised the use of buffers to help smooth the provision of financing to other economic agents, as a complement to the fiscal and monetary measures. 1  Although banking was among the hardest-hit sectors – in terms of stock market valuations – during the initial stages of the crisis, its share price valuations have recovered significantly on international financial markets after the development of vaccines was announced in November 2020. This reflects the fact that, thus far, the crisis has largely been prevented from developing a relevant financial component. Some examples will suffice to illustrate the banking sector’s resilience during the crisis and the role played by economic policies in maintaining it. 2  The resilience and role of the banking sector during the crisis  First, let us look at the indicator reflecting credit developments. For the first time since the global financial crisis, the volume of bank lending to the resident private sector in Spain increased in 2020 (by 3.5%).