12  12  10  10  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0 81  83  85  87  89  91  93  95  97  99  01  03  05  07  09  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  BIS Review 132/2007  11  8. Wages expected to rise faster Different agents’ expectations of the rate of wage increase two years ahead, Per cent 5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  Employer organisations Employee organisations Purchasing managers  1  1  Wages in the business sector, outcome 0  0 98  99  00  01  02  03  04  05  06  07  08  09  Sources: The National Mediation Office and Prospera Research AB  9. Cost pressures increasing Annual percentage change. Broken lines and striped bars refer to the Riksbank’s forecasts. 8  8 Unit labour cost 7 6  Hourly labour cost  7  Productivity  6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 -1  -1 94  96  98  00  02  04  06  08  10  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  12  BIS Review 132/2007  10.
There were also some problems with the earlier signalling which we wanted to avoid. In certain situations it was probably difficult to determine whether the signal in a speech should be interpreted as an individual member’s opinion or whether it reflected the views of a majority on the Executive Board. If the individual Board members sent out different signals it could probably also be difficult to distinguish a clear message. In addition, it was unclear when and if the signals should be sent out. Finally, and at least as important in my opinion, there was also a democratic aspect to this question. This has to do with the fact that we are an independent authority and that the general public should have good insight into the decision-making process. There must be no doubt that the interest rate decisions are actually made at the monetary policy meetings and not at some other, more diffuse, point in time – in some informal way that prevents insight. If the signalling prior to the meetings leads people to believe that the interest rate decisions have been made in advance of the meetings, then doubts may arise. Why has this led to a debate? The fact that the debate on our communication has been fairly lively probably has several explanations. To begin with, the pace of our development towards openness and clarity has been fairly high over the past two years. And if one makes a lot of changes in a short time it is not so surprising that discussions arise.