This means that the different opinions must instead be brought together into a compromise as far as this is possible. The Monetary Policy Reports and Updates that we publish can thus be said to reflect the average stance of the members of the Executive Board. If one or more of us considers that the opinions expressed in the Report or Update differ too much from our own opinion to be able to express support from them, we must enter a reservation at the monetary policy meeting. We have, of course, also had the opportunity to put forward any dissenting opinions during a number of earlier meetings. When a member of the Executive Board enters a reservation at a meeting, it therefore rarely comes as a surprise to those initiated in the  BIS Review 65/2010  5  forecasting process or to the rest of the Executive Board. Most of the Executive Board members believe that they know roughly how their colleagues on the Executive Board will vote at the actual meeting. This is usually true, according to the conclusions of a study made by the Monetary Policy Department, and which is based on a questionnaire sent to all current and previous members of the Executive Board. 8 The reservation and motivation are published after the monetary policy meeting, in the press release and in the minutes of the meeting.
The more information we receive on the effects that different risk scenarios have on the economy, the clearer the base for the monetary policy decisions will be. Then it is necessary for decision-makers to realise that it is not always possible to explicitly include all possible scenarios in the forecast. Sometimes this is impossible due to lack of resources. In principle, we Executive Board members have insight and the possibility to discuss the forecasts with the Monetary Policy and Financial Stability Department throughout the whole of the forecasting process. We can then question the assessments made. The Board members’ assessments of which risks are most relevant for the decision naturally also affect which analyses are made by the Monetary Policy Department. The analyses published in Monetary Policy Reports and Updates are normally just one part of those made during a forecasting round. Of course, the entire Executive Board does not always agree with the analyses presented as these are the results of a compromise where the different opinions are weighed together. But in this case it is clear, either from the Board member’s contribution to the debate as published in the minutes, or in the form of a reservation entered. In this way the general public has very good insight into how we Executive Board members have though when making our decision. BIS Review 65/2010  7