7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  7  For example, micro data studies from the UK, US, Denmark and Norway have all found statistically significant correlations between higher levels of household debt and the size of consumption cuts in a shock.13 And macro studies have also found correlation between rapid credit growth and the severity of downturns.14  But new studies have also sought to deepen the knowledge base. In particular, they have looked at why more highly indebted households cut consumption in response to shocks – the channels through which the observed association is working. For example, there could be debt financed ‘over-consumption’ prior to a downturn that is then cut back when expectations adjust to reality or credit becomes unavailable. This channel might work directly through unsecured consumer borrowing or through mortgage financed borrowing to consume. Alternatively, there are channels through which higher levels of debt constrain household budgets without appealing to ‘over-consumption’: some indebted households may be unable to consume as much as they would like in a downturn because they do not have a sufficient buffer of liquid savings and find themselves unable to access additional credit when they need it the most. This situation is more likely when falls in house prices reduce the value of the borrower’s collateral. The situation is also likely to be exacerbated if the downturn is accompanied by rising uncertainty. The combination of rising uncertainty and credit constraints would tend to lead to further reductions in spending as households build precautionary buffers.
Ashton, T. (1959), Economic Fluctuations in England 1700-1800, Clarendon Press, Oxford. Baker, Scott R. (2018), Debt and the Response to Household Income Shocks: Validation and Application of Linked Financial Account Data, Journal of Political Economy, 126 (40), pp. 1504-1557. Barker, Kate (2004), Barker Review of Housing Supply, HM Treasury, London. Bridges, Jonathan, Chris Jackson and Daisy McGregor (2017), Down in the slumps: the role of credit in five decades of recessions, Staff Working Paper No. 659, Bank of England. Bunn, Philip and May Rostom (2014), Household debt and spending, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, 54 (3), pp. 304-315. Cunliffe, Jon (2014), Momentum in the housing market: affordability, indebtedness and risks, Speech at the Worshipful Company of International Bankers dinner, London. Dimsdale, Nicholas and Anthony Hotson (2014), British Financial Crises since 1825, Oxford University Press, Oxford. Dynan, Karen and Wendy Edelberg (2013), The Relationship Between Leverage and Household Spending Behavior: Evidence from the 2007-2009 Survey of Consumer Finances, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 95(5), pp. 425-48. Fagereng, Andreas and Elin Halvorsen (2016), Debt and Household Consumption Responses, Norges Bank, Staff Memo. Hoppit, J. (1986), Financial Crises in Eighteenth-Century England, The Economic History Review, 39(1), pp. 39-58. Huang, Huaxiang and Ryland Thomas (2016), The ghost of crises past, present and future: The Bank Charter Act goes on trial in 1847, Bank Underground. Jordà, Òscar, Moritz Schularick and Alan M. Taylor (2015), Leveraged bubbles, Journal of Monetary Economics, 76, pp. S1-S20.