It is true that the opinions on the optimal level and even on the relevance of this factor for successfully joining a currency union are quite diverse. However, to attain a certain degree of per capita income convergence before switching to the euro is essential, as a large convergence gap may complicate business cycle management in the absence of independent monetary policy. But even the countries that are already euro area members should continue to increase their level of real convergence. In my opinion, the direction of the real convergence process and its sustainability and smoothness are just as important as its degree. Romania has certainly come a long way in terms of economic convergence, a process whose inception is tied to the prospects of EU membership, witnessing a significant increase in per capita GDP as a share of the euro area average (based on PPS), from 31.7 percent in 2005 to 58.6 percent in 2017. Peer countries recorded a similar trend: Bulgaria went from about 33 to 47 percent, while the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland, which started from a more advanced level, added 9 to 20 percentage points to the same indicator during 2005–2017. However, this process is still far from completion in these non-euro New Member States. A smooth convergence path requires a combination of prudent macroeconomic policies (be they monetary, fiscal or macroprudential), even though in practice it is difficult to build support for such policies.
By contrast, Romania pursues both a floating exchange rate and a direct inflation targeting strategy, the same as Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic and, therefore, the approach is different, the changeover to the euro being more complex in this context. This is by no means to say that Romania is sceptical about euro adoption, but merely that it needs a comprehensive view, meant to ensure an adequate timing of this moment and a successful entry into the euro area. While we are on the subject, it cannot be overlooked either that the New Member States having adopted the euro – Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Slovakia, Slovenia – are relatively small countries, with a different level of real convergence. Referring to countries that are currently in the process of adopting the euro, I myself am among those who stress the need for sustainable convergence, being aware that, in order to reap the benefits of euro area accession, several essential prerequisites have to be cumulatively met. The fact that nominal convergence criteria need to be fulfilled in a lasting – not accidental, forced or temporary – manner is just one aspect. Actually, the durability of convergence has been set forth in the Maastricht Treaty itself (“high degree of sustainable convergence” is the exact wording), but this “detail” has been taken too lightly for a while. Moreover, now it is obvious for everybody that real convergence is also essential for the sustainability of the entire process of euro adoption.