I have covered 250 years of labour market developments in 40 minutes. Perhaps a robot could have done it in half that time or twice as well. Perhaps “Peak Andy” has been reached. Either way, these are issues I know the TUC will want to take seriously in its words and actions over the next 150 years, as it has over the past 150 years. Thank you. BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  References Acemoglu, D (2008), “Introduction to modern economic growth.”, Princeton University Press. Aikman, D, Haldane, A G, and Nelson, B D, (2014) “Curbing the credit cycle.” The Economic Journal. Allen, R C (2001) “The great divergence in European wages and prices from the middle ages to the First World War”, Explorations in Economic History 38, 411–47. Allen, R (2009) “Engels’ pause: technical change, capital accumulation, and inequality in the British industrial revolution”, Explorations in Economic History 46, 418–35. Atkinson, A B, and Stiglitz, J E, (2015) “Lectures on public economics”, Princeton University Press. Autor, D H (2003) “Outsourcing at will: The contribution of unjust dismissal doctrine to the growth of employment outsourcing.” Journal of labor economics, Vol21(1), pages 1–42. Autor, D H (2015) “Why Are There Still So Many Jobs? The History and Future of Workplace Automation.” Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol29(3): pages 3–30. Barro, R J, and Lee, J (2015) “Education Matters: Global Schooling Gains from the 19th to the 21st Century”, Oxford University Press. BIS (2014) ‘Inflation: domestic and global drivers’, BIS 84th Annual Report page 49 onwards.
Industrial revolution and “hollowing-out” Or is it? Looking more closely at past phases of rapid technological change paints a more nuanced picture. Each phase has eventually resulted in a growing tree of rising skills, wages and productivity. But they have also been associated with a “hollowing out” of this tree. Indeed, this hollowing-out has widened and deepened with each new technological wave. Economic historians tend to partition the growth timeline into three distinct phases: the first Industrial Revolution, the era of steam engines and spinning jennies, commencing in the middle of the 18th century; the second, the era of mass industrialisation, commencing in the second half of the 19th century; and the third, the era of information technology, commencing in the second half of the 20th century (Haldane (2014)). These industrial revolutions each brought about a remarkable re-shaping of the jobs landscape (Chart 17). The employment share of agriculture and other primary activities has fallen from around 50% in 1700 to around 1% today. Secondary activities, notably manufacturing, rose to 45% of employment at the end of the 19th century, before falling to around 10% today. Meanwhile, the employment share of services has roughly doubled each century since 1700, to reach around 80% today. These dramatic shifts are even more striking at an occupational level. Chart 18 plots employment in four occupations since 1870: agricultural labourers, telephonists, accountants and hairdressers (Deloitte (2015a)).