Both the second-quarter Spanish Labour Force Survey figures and the Quarterly National Accounts estimates released at the end of August reflect high employment growth rates in the first half of the year (3% yearon-year; around half a million new jobs). The most recent data on Social Security registrations,  2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  i.e. those for July and August, show a certain moderation in the rate of job creation in this period, albeit still in a positive vein. Labour costs continued to moderate in the first half of the year, reflecting the greater flexibility with which firms can adjust their labour conditions to the macroeconomic environment. If the trend prevailing in the past year and a half continues, the rise in employment may put the unemployment rate at around 20% in 2016 Q4. In the realm of inflation, the recent energy price falls have interrupted the course of recovery of the CPI. After posting positive year-on-year rates in June and July, for the first time in nearly a year, the overall price index slipped back (by –0.4%) in August. It is important, however, to emphasise the temporary nature of this new bout of disinflation, linked to the recent oil price fall in the international markets. In fact, the rate of change of the CPI excluding energy increased by 0.9% in August, growing slightly faster than in July, while the indicator which excludes unprocessed food as well, so-called “core inflation”, grew by 0.7%.
Luis M Linde: Performance of and outlook for the Spanish economy Testimony by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, before the Senate in connection with the draft State budget for 2016, Madrid, 23 September 2015. *  *  *  Luis M Linde: Performance of and outlook for the Spanish economy Testimony by Mr Luis M Linde, Governor of the Bank of Spain, before the Senate in connection with the draft State budget for 2016, Madrid, 23 September 2015. Ladies and gentlemen, In my appearance today, as part of the process of discussion and approval of the budget in the Senate, I will focus on analysing the performance of, and outlook for, the Spanish economy and on the role of the State budget for 2016, following approval of the draft law by the government on 31 July, and the role of the Budget Plan for 2016, submitted to the Council of Ministers on 11 September. The external setting of the Spanish economy Heightened uncertainty is presently the most noteworthy feature of the external setting of the Spanish economy. The recovery in the advanced economies and the return to normal on the international financial markets have been affected by the consequences of the global economic slowdown, as a result of the downturn in some emerging economies, particularly China, and especially in light of the difficulties involved in assessing its real magnitude in the medium term.