A 5-year period is very short for the structural achievements made in a country with a 30-year inflationary past to repair the fragility in expectations in a permanent way. Therefore, in a period where financial fluctuations were observed in all developing countries, the shortterm market fluctuations originating from foreigners’ exits were perceived to be much more negative in Turkey, although there was not a permanent deterioration in macroeconomic fundamentals. As seen in the table in the slide, there have been eight fluctuations since the year 2001 when the floating exchange rate regime was put into practice, and exchange rates have even surpassed the top value that was recorded in the recent fluctuation. However, to the extent that the program was implemented decisively and policies were conducted without any interruption, there had always been a return to the main trend where the Turkish lira appreciated. It should be kept in mind that this process is also the process for the Turkish lira to gain credibility. As long as macroeconomic fundamentals are strengthened and structural reforms are achieved, this process is likely to continue. Table.
Meanwhile, depreciation of the Turkish lira due to excessive volatility observed in international markets in May and June, led to hikes in the prices of petroleum products, consumer durables and the prices of goods that are set in terms of foreign currencies and prices of imported goods. One of the sub-groups that are most severely affected by this situation is the transportation group. Petroleum products prices, which are registered under the transportation group, increased by 5.9 percent and 3.3 percent in June and July, respectively. Meanwhile, automobile prices registered under the same group increased by 10 percent in April-June 2006. Prices of processed food products, which displayed a limited rise in the  2  BIS Review 89/2006  first six months of the year, displayed a higher rate of increase in July due to the lagged effects of the fluctuations in exchange rates. The contribution of the depreciation of Turkish lira to consumer inflation in the May-June period reached 1.5 percentage points. When we analyze inflation under two groups as goods and services, it is observed that inflation in the services group has decreased throughout 2006 compared to the same period last year, however especially due to the high rates of increase in house rents and restaurant-hotel prices, annual inflation in the services group became 11.7 percent annually as of July and maintained its high level. The 20.5percent rise in house rents is remarkable in this group.