Yet, when jobs are tallied, the contribution of oil and gas accounts for only 2 percent of the Texas workforce. Indeed, if you peruse our website, you will see that since the National Bureau of Economic Research proclaimed the recovery’s start in June 2009, education and health services, which employs 13.5 percent of Texas’ workers, and professional and business services, which employs another 12.5 percent, have gained 173,000 jobs during the recovery – nearly 60 percent of all the jobs added in Texas. The Texas workforce consists of more than just roustabouts and cowboys, though we are certainly proud of that heritage. Those of you who are here for the first time have no doubt already noticed this as you have wandered around Dallas and have seen nary an oil rig nor a cow. While you are looking at the research material on our site, you might also look over the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey, which we refer to by the acronym TMOS. Since 2004, TMOS has had the highest correlation of all Fed bank surveys with the Institute for Supply Management’s national manufacturing index. And you might find of interest our monthly service sector and retail outlook surveys. Mine might brief you on the most recent results of these during your session with her this afternoon. Policy background Enough about Texas per se. I am, however, going to put up on the screen behind me a slide that bridges developments in the Texas economy and the nation’s economic predicament.
Now, we’ve all become very familiar with breathless reports on China’s “economic miracle,” so I won’t go over this at length. Still, the startling pace of growth does warrant underlining. In a little over a decade since the year 2000, the Mainland’s nominal GDP increased sixfold from 1.2 to 7.2 trillion US dollars; and its external trade expanded more than sevenfold, from less than 500 billion to over 3.6 trillion US dollars. At the same time, its cross-border direct investments rose fourfold, from just over 40 billion to approaching 180 billion US dollars. These are all impressive indicators of the vast amount of business opportunities present. It is perhaps even more astonishing that, by 2016, the Mainland is expected to contribute over a third of total world economic growth, according to the projections of the International Monetary Fund. Change in the international financial system Such shifts in the global economy have inevitably foreshadowed a change in the international financial system. As the Mainland economy has grown, its currency and financial sector have moved increasingly centre-stage. Over the last decade or so, policymakers, investors and others have shown more interest in using a greater mix of currencies for international trade and financial transactions. This trend has been accelerated by the recent Global Financial Crisis, as the need to reduce reliance on just one or two global currencies has grown. Taken together, these trends imply a greater role for the RMB in the Mainland’s trade and investment with the rest of the world.