CPIF with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change 4  4  90% 75% 50% Outcome Forecast  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Figure 6. Forecasting performance for GDP and CPI 1-RMSE/SD, number of quarters ahead in time 1  1 GDP CPI  0.8  0.8  0.6  0.6  0.4  0.4  0.2  0.2  0  0 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  Note. Prior to the vertical line, the forecasts partly contain outcomes. Sources: The Riksbank and own calculations  BIS central bankers’ speeches  13  Figure 7. Forecasting performance for GDP, CPI and unemployment 1-RMSE/SD, number of quarters ahead in time 1  1 GDP CPI Unemployment  0.8  0.8  0.6  0.6  0.4  0.4  0.2  0.2  0  0 1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  11  12  Note. Prior to the vertical line, the forecasts partly contain outcomes. Sources: The Riksbank and own calculations  Figure 8.
Forecast for GDP according to the convergence programme GDP at fixed prices, index 1994=100 130  130 Outcome Convergence report 1995  120  120  110  110  100  100  90  90 94  95  96  97  98  99  00  Sources: Ministry of Finance and Statistics Sweden  BIS central bankers’ speeches  11  Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data 8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4  90% 75% 50% Outcome Forecast  -6 -8 05  06  -6 -8 07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  Figure 4. CPI with uncertainty bands Annual percentage change 6  6  90% 75% 50% Outcome Forecast  5 4  5 4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0  -1  -1  -2  -2 05  06  07  08  09  10  11  12  13  14  Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank  12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 5.