For the same reason, although we believe that the evolution of macroeconomic conditions will make it necessary to reduce the monetary stimulus and that the external impulse facing the Chilean economy has not seen significant changes, we will continue to implement this process with particular caution. Let me now share with you some more detail of our assessment of the macroeconomic scenario, its prospects and monetary policy implications. 1  II. Recent evolution of inflation  As is well known, in January, the INE updated the CPI basket and measurement methodology, giving rise to a new CPI series with base 2018=100, that supersedes the former base of 2013. The new CPI uses a basket of products that responds to the current consumption patterns of the population, taken from the Family Budget Survey of 2017, and incorporates a series of methodological improvements in the collection of some price data. This certainly makes the new CPI a more accurate indicator of current inflation. In introducing the new series, the INE has applied the same procedures of the last two updates, in 2009 and 2014. Thus, for analytical purposes, it has generated a benchmark series, corresponding to the CPI level calculated with the new methodology for the months of January to December 2018. This allows estimating the average prices established by the base of the indicator and twelve-month variations, beginning in January 2019.
As I said, although in the medium-term immigration should have an expansionary effect on GDP and a limited one on inflation, it is unclear how the supply and demand channels will interact, and which one will dominate as the economy absorbs the population inflow. Second, on the activity side, it is possible for investment to be even more dynamic if larger-scale projects keep coming, but it can also happen that the greater external risks induce a more conservative behavior by entrepreneurs and consumers. Third, the expected evolution of inflation could also be affected if the pass-through of the peso depreciation returns to near average magnitudes earlier than expected and pushes up inflation of CPIEFE goods. Finally, we cannot rule out a faster depletion of the oneoff effects of sectoral supply shocks, particularly the heavier competition in some areas. V.  Final remarks  The global economic scenario poses important challenges to our country. For two years now, events have been unfolding that have added uncertainty to the global growth Outlook, such as the trade conflict between  7  the US and China or the Brexit resolution. Thus, we have seen several episodes in which global markets have been stressed, generating less favorable conditions for the emerging world. The most recent of these events is still underway, putting pressure on economies that are perceived to have weaker macroeconomic fundamentals. Chile, being a small economy, commercially and financially integrated in the world, has not been spared these tensions.