Countries in Asia in turn import intermediate goods from, for example, Sweden. Sweden is thus exposed not only to the direct effect but also to indirect so-called third country effects because the downturn in the United States affects Asia and other parts of the world. When we at the Riksbank produces forecasts for Swedish exports we take into account both direct and indirect effects. The forecasts are based on growth on the Swedish export market and take into account the growth in imports in the recipient countries as well as how much Sweden exports to the respective countries. The latest forecast for Swedish exports and the growth of the Swedish export market is shown in Figure 2. Swedish exports grew rapidly in 2010 and during the early part of this year, but already in the July Monetary Policy Report it was stated that growth was expected to enter a calmer phase. Since then, demand abroad has weakened which, in combination with the recent international financial turbulence, led us in September to believe that exports would grow even more slowly than previously calculated. This is because Swedish exports consist to a large extent of investment goods and in times of unrest companies in Sweden as well as abroad often choose to postpone their investments, which has a negative impact on Swedish exports.
The reasons behind the setting of the minimum exchange rate in September 2011 retain their validity. The financial problems in many countries continue to provide a basis for potential safe haven capital flows. In addition, at its current rate, the Swiss franc remains high and is weighing on the Swiss economy. Consequently, at its most recent monetary policy assessment in September, the SNB confirmed that it would leave the minimum exchange rate unchanged and continue to enforce it with the utmost determination. 6  BIS central bankers’ speeches