The sooner such a comprehensive plan is designed and announced the better, as this would help boost confidence and reduce the uncertainty surrounding Spanish economic policies. Such confidence is particularly important in the context of monetary policy normalisation (with the consequent tightening of financial conditions) in which we find ourselves. This will be the topic of tomorrow’s policy panel discussion. Let me conclude. The economy is currently in a highly uncertain environment characterised by the aftermath of two major shocks, the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, with consequences that are difficult to anticipate, especially in a context of ongoing monetary policy normalisation. This setting interacts with the enormous structural challenges that the Spanish economy faces, highlighting the need for a comprehensive strategy of ambitious and lasting reforms in order to boost growth and promote the well-being of our society. 5  Only a resolute economic policy response to the multiple challenges facing the Spanish economy will enable us to follow a robust and sustained growth path that offers opportunities for all in the coming years. Moreover, it is essential that this response is based on high-quality theoretical and empirical analyses that provide a necessary diagnosis of the situation from different angles as well as a rigorous discussion of the pros and cons of the policies available. This conference will certainly contribute to that goal. The quality and range of the speakers and papers covering these topics will guarantee that this is the case.
Some of these uncertainties are already having a negative impact on the world economy and have the potential to affect significantly growth prospects. As an illustration, a hypothetical interruption of energy commodity imports from Russia would hit the European and Spanish economy hard. Indeed, simulations prepared by Banco de España staff show that such a scenario would have a negative impact of between 0.8% and 1.4% on Spanish GDP in the first year, depending on the assumption made regarding the European economies’ ability to replace Russian energy sources. 2  In this uncertain scenario, one of the main worrisome developments is being the significant increase in the rate of inflation at the world, European and Spanish level. In particular, inflation in Spain rose significantly in 2021 and accelerated further in early 2022, reaching 10% in June. Moreover, although the price rises were initially concentrated in commodities and food and seemed to be relatively temporary in nature, in recent quarters their intensity has systematically surprised on the upside, spreading to the rest of the goods and services in the consumption basket and showing signs of greater persistence. Therefore, analysing the current inflationary episode, with a particular focus on the factors that may influence the persistence of these dynamics in the future is of paramount importance for the recovery of the Spanish economy. Wage and mark-up dynamics are particularly relevant in this regard.