•  The sight deposit rate should be in the interval 3¼ - 4¼ per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 15 March 2007, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections. New information may reveal aspects of economic developments that indicate that the Norwegian economy is moving on a different path than projected. On the one hand, major shifts in trade patterns, strong competition, weaker global growth or a stronger krone exchange rate may result in low inflation. On the other hand, low real interest rates or a further depreciation of the krone may lead to a higher-than-projected rise in output and inflation. BIS Review 108/2006  5  Projections are uncertain. Disturbances in the economy will affect interest rate developments. This reduces the uncertainty about developments in prices and output. Monetary policy cannot fine-tune economic developments, but it can prevent the largest effects from occurring when the economy is exposed to disturbances. In some situations, it may be appropriate to guard against particularly adverse developments. In the baseline scenario, the interest rate is gradually raised to a more normal level. Norges Bank continuously assesses the effects of interest rate changes and other new information concerning economic developments. Thank you for your attention. 6  BIS Review 108/2006
For me it is not important that it is the Riksbank, rather than any other authority, that is given the responsibility and the instruments to conduct  22  See, for example, Apel, Mikael and Carl-Andreas Claussen (2012), “Monetary policy, interest rates and risk taking”, Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2012:2, pp. 66–80, for an outline of the relationship between low interest rates, increased credit expansion and the boom on the property market in many countries that to a large extent lay at the centre of the crisis. BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  macroprudential policy. But it is important that someone is given responsibility, otherwise we will have created a framework that is no clearer than the one we have today. Exactly how responsibility should be allocated is an issue that I am not prepared to discuss further today. It is an issue that will have to wait until the Riksbank submits its response to the interim report of the Financial Crisis Commission later in the spring. References af Jochnick, Kerstin (2013), “Monetary policy and macroprudential policy”, speech, Länsförsäkringar, Stockholm, 25 January 2013, Sveriges Riksbank. Apel, Mikael and Carl-Andreas Claussen (2012), “Monetary policy, interest rates and risktaking”, Sveriges Riksbank Economic Review 2012:2, pp. 66–80. Borio, Claudio and Mathias Drehmann (2009), “Assessing the risk of banking crises – revisited”, BIS Quarterly Review, March, pp. 29–46. Englund, Peter (2011), “Swedish house prices in an international perspective”, The Riksbank’s inquiry into risks in the Swedish housing market.