Malmendier, U, and Nagel, S (2011), “Depression Babies: Do Macroeconomic Experiences Affect Risk-Taking?”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, February 2011, vol. 126(1), pp. 373–416. Reinhart, C M, and Rogoff, K S (2010), “Growth in a Time of Debt”, American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pp. 573–78, May. Simonson, D G, and Hempel, G H (1993), “Banking Lessons from the Past: The 1938 Regulatory Agreement Interpreted”, Journal of Financial Services Research, pp. 249–267. Tuckett, D (2011), “Minding the Markets: An Emotional Finance View of Financial Instability”, Palgrave Maxmillan. Tversky, A, and Kahneman, D (1974), “Judgement under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases”, Science, New series, Vol.185, No 4157, pp. 1124–1131. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Chart 1:  Chart 2:  Changes to UK real GDP in crisis periods  Recessions and recoveries  1929 crash  cumulative % change since start of recession  1990 recession  Interquartile range financial recessions  16  2008 financial crisis  Financial recessions  Mean time to trough  Normal recessions  Mean time to trough Index: GDP peak = 100 106  12 8  104  4  102  0  100 98  -4  96 -8 0  1  2  3 4 years since crisis  5  6  Sources: Office for National Statistics, Thomson Reuters Datastream and Bank calculations. 8  0  1 2 Years from peak in output  3  Sources: International Monetary Fund and Bank calculations.
12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Chart 13:  Chart 14:  Corporate financial surplus(a)  Percentage of firms with interest payments greater than profits(a)(b)  Per cent 10  United Kingdom United States Euro area  Per cent 60  Firms with turnover > £ million  8  Firms with turnover < £ million  6  Real estate firms with turnover > £ million  50  4 2 + 0 2  40  4  20  30  6 10  8 10 00  02  04  06  08  10  Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, ECB and Bank calculations. (a) Per cent of GDP except Euro area which is as a per cent of GVA. 0 90  92  94  96  98  00  02  04  06  08  Sources: Bureau Van Dijk and Bank calculations. (a) Percentage of companies in each category with interest payments greater than their profits before interest. (b) Data include firms reporting turnover, profit and interest paid. These firms may not be representative of the population. Total sample size varies over time, ranging from around 14,000 in 1990 to over 90,000 in 2000. Changes in the composition of the data set may reduce comparability over time. Subsidiaries, as identified from company structures, are excluded. Company accounts are assigned to calendar years according to the statement date.