This stability is underscored by our latest quarterly consumer credit panel data, which shows that total household debt burdens have remained relatively low by national standards and that mortgage delinquency rates are lower in the Syracuse region than in other parts of the state and nation. However, while the national recovery has started to gain some momentum in recent months, job growth in Syracuse has remained somewhat weak. To date, the region has regained only about a third of the roughly 13,000 jobs that were lost during the downturn. So the recovery has been disappointing thus far. Despite the weak overall job growth, the region continues to undergo substantial economic restructuring. And, in fact, many parts of the economy are growing. Most prominently, the business services sector has added about 2,000 jobs since the recession ended, and the leisure and hospitality sector has also expanded. As a result of the economic restructuring in Syracuse, health and education are now among the most important industries in the region, employing roughly a fifth of all workers. While the “eds and meds” sector experienced some job losses last year, it is generally less susceptible to downturns than other sectors of the economy, and expanded before, during and after the Great Recession. No doubt, the area’s many local colleges and universities play an important role in this regard. Syracuse’s colleges and universities deserve special attention because they are important regional assets that can help Syracuse continue to actively participate in the knowledge economy.
Our own research at the New York Fed has shown that higher-education institutions can help to build their local area’s skilled workforce, which is critical to the long-run economic success of any region. These institutions produce highly skilled labor and help their regions innovate by creating new knowledge and inventions through academic research and development. It can be especially beneficial for local businesses to take advantage of the research facilities available at local colleges and universities. Partnerships between private industry and higher-education institutions are an important ingredient in this regard. Going forward, I believe these partnerships will become more important than ever – particularly for places like Syracuse that continue to experience economic restructuring. Fortunately, this region already has a strong higher education industry in place. Conclusion To sum up, the incoming data on the U.S. economy has been a bit more upbeat of late, suggesting that the recovery may be getting better established. But, while these developments are certainly encouraging, it is far too soon to conclude that we are out of the woods in terms of generating a strong, sustainable recovery. On the inflation front, the year-over-year rate of consumer price inflation has slowed in recent months, and despite the recent rise of gasoline prices, we expect inflation to moderate further in 2012. Here in Syracuse, while the recovery to date has not been as strong as we would like, the region’s vibrant health and education sector provides a solid base for longer-term growth. Thank you for your kind attention.