On one hand, in the aftermath of the 2008–2009 crisis the main central banks of the world had to adopt unconventional policies to cheer up their ailing economies, flooding the world with unprecedented levels of liquidity and thus increasing the price of financial assets. Today, the start of the US monetary policy normalization is around the corner, which will intensify the divergence with other developed economies whose cycles are behind. Meanwhile, after years of seemingly endless increases in commodity prices, we have seen the so-called super cycle of commodities wear out, and with it, the boom of investment and income that we experienced for the better part of the past decade. These two situations pose major challenges to emerging economies and Chile in particular. In the short term, it is very likely that we will see increased financial volatility, including unusual fluctuations in the exchange rate. This may complicate the inflation outlook, at least in the short term, as inflation is closely linked to fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate over short periods. The effects of these situations of increased volatility on the inflation trajectory at longer terms, which certainly are more important for monetary policy, are difficult to predict, as they depend on many factors, such as the cyclical state of the economy and expectations, which we carefully assess when making our decisions. Certainly these are not the only challenges that these transitions face us with.
About the monetary policy rate, at the statistical cutoff of this Report market expectations showed differences in  BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  the expected path for 2015. The surveys indicated that the MPR would remain in 3 percent throughout this year, to rise during 2016. Meanwhile, the prices of financial assets suggested that it should be raised during the second half of 2015. As a working assumption, the MPR is assumed to follow a trajectory that is somewhat above what is implicit in the surveys (figure 10). As is usual in our projections, the baseline scenario reflects those events estimated to be the most likely to occur with the information at hand at the close of this Report. There are risks, however that, if materialized, may reshape the macroeconomic scenario and, therefore, may alter the course of monetary policy. Abroad, there are several elements that might trigger new episodes of volatility in world financial markets, with significant effects on credit costs, currency parities and the short-term inflation outlook. On one hand, important surprises regarding the timing and the speed with which the Federal Reserve will raise the benchmark rate may cause significant volatility in global financial markets, pushing interest rates up and further appreciating the dollar. In such a scenario, one cannot rule out that, additionally, we observe an abrupt portfolio rebalancing, given the low level of long-term interest rates and the high stock prices in the United States.