changes in the relative prices of exports compared to imports: this is the theme of today’s conference. The subject chosen is highly topical, following the very sharp drop in commodity prices, in particular oil prices, between mid-2014 and early 2016, the effects of which on exporting countries had been underestimated, both by the countries themselves, but also by the international financial community. Thus, the economic growth forecasts for sub-Saharan Africa made by the main international organisations were revised downwards only very late. In January 2016, the IMF still expected Sub-Saharan Africa to grow by 4% in 2016 and by 4.7% in 2017, but the forecasts in the October 2016 global economic outlook were only 1.4% for 2016 and 2.9% for 2017, almost solely as a result of the recession in the oil economies. The Ivorian economy is another illustration of the importance of the terms of trade for economies focused on commodities. After experiencing exceptional growth over the last three years, partly driven by the good performance of cocoa prices, contrary to that of other commodities, activity appears to have slowed down, in the wake of the downturn in prices. The subject is also of major importance for central banks because the challenge here is to find how to implement appropriate counter-cyclical policies in the face of large-scale shocks that monetary policy cannot deal with either on its own or in the long run.
Public action should instead focus on improving the business climate, which is the only way to promote entrepreneurship in the formal sector and ultimately improve the country’s international attractiveness. Diversification is only sustainable if one avoids the Dutch syndrome, characterised by an excessive appreciation of the real exchange rate, restricting the growth of other export sectors. The accumulation of external savings contributes to this objective. Finally, the third priority concerns the robustness of the financial sector. I will emphasise the importance of measuring, via stress tests, the potential effects of a sharp drop in commodity prices on the solvency of the banking system. These stress tests make it possible to determine the adequate level of bank capital needed to withstand shocks. * * * Allow me to conclude briefly by expressing once again my gratitude to all the speakers and participants who came here today to share their thoughts on these crucial issues. I wish you fruitful exchanges and now give the floor to Patrick Guillaumont. Thank you for your attention. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches