To a large extent, the convergence of inflation to the 3% target in two years’ time is based on the assumption that the economy will continue to adjust the significant imbalances it accumulated in 2021. In the central scenario, the economy will grow below its potential for several more quarters, so that the gap will continue to narrow and will turn negative beginning at the end of this year. In this scenario, GDP will post annual variations between 1.75% and 2.25% this year, between -1.5% and -0.5% in 2023, and between 2.25% and 3.25% in 2024. For this three-year period, our projection contemplates a fiscal spending trajectory that is consistent with that described in the last Public Finance Report. Activity outlook foresees that private consumption will continue to tighten, a result that largely stems from the expiration of the massive income-support measures adopted in 2021, as well as from the tightening of monetary policy. About investment, weak performance is anticipated through the remainder of 2022 and all of 2023, reflecting less favorable financial conditions, increased business pessimism, a higher real exchange rate, and declining, albeit slowly, uncertainty (table 1). The current-account deficit will decrease in the coming quarters, in line with the continued adjustment of spending on tradables and a much more favorable savings-investment balance than in 2021. As income stimulus measures will not be repeated, both public and household 5  savings will improve drastically compared to 2021, triggering a significant drop in the current-account deficit from the second half of this year onwards.
We will do whatever is necessary to ensure that this pandemic, which is having a massive economic impact, does not turn into a debt crisis or a crisis of the financial system. We will not allow this to happen. We are dealing with a situation which requires us to act with extreme intensity. You have said that the measures taken by the Spanish government and other European governments are appropriate. But you have also hinted recently that the European Union has perhaps not responded quite as effectively. Are you afraid that a crisis of this kind could take its toll on the European project? Let’s hope not. The ECB has already acted. Basically what remains is for Member States also to act and continue to act through their fiscal policies. And we need a pan-European response. We need a coordinated EU fiscal policy response. I am sure that this is what will happen in the end. The ECB cannot be the only policy tool used from an economic standpoint. Monetary policy cannot be the only instrument employed. I am certain that Member States will do something about this and they will adopt a coordinated position in terms of the fiscal policy instruments employed by the EU in response to this huge crisis. The economic impact will be enormous. We just hope that it will be temporary.