Slow recovery Quarterly changes in per cent calculated as annual rate, seasonallyadjusted data 6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4  -6 -8  -6 Euro area  -8  USA  -10  -10 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 2004  2005  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011  2012  Note. Broken columns represent the Riksbank’ s forecasts in July 2009. Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank  BIS Review 98/2009  9  5. The oil price, Brent crude USD per barrel 140  140  120  120  100  100  80  80  60  60  40  40  20  20  Outcome Forward rates, average up to and including 25 June 2009  0  0 00  01  02  03  04  05  Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecasts. 06  07  08  09  10  11  12  Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank  6.
The assessment which guided today's monetary policy decision was that, overall, the prospect has strengthened for inflation to fall below 2% in the course of 2003 and to remain in line with price stability thereafter. Our decision should also help to improve the outlook for the euro area economy by providing a counterweight to some of the existing downside risks to economic growth, thereby supporting confidence. The most likely scenario is that economic growth will gradually recover in the course of 2003 towards rates more in line with potential. Falling inflation should support real disposable income and, together with a reduction in the gap between perceived and actual inflation rates, should underpin private consumption. Moreover, we expect an improvement in world demand. This, and the low level of interest rates, should benefit investment. Let me point out that, with today's decision, the key ECB interest rates have reached a very low level by historical standards. The Governing Council will continue to monitor closely all factors that may affect the prospects for inflation in the euro area. The outlook for the euro area economy will also very much depend on visible progress in other policy areas. Regarding fiscal policies in the euro area, I would like to reiterate that budgetary discipline strengthens the conditions for sustainable growth of GDP and employment. Therefore, sound fiscal positions, as enshrined in the Treaty and further developed in the Stability and Growth Pact, are in the interest of all the Member States.