In the second quarter, sickness absence stood at 6.5 per cent of contractual person-days, although there are substantial occupational and geographical variations. In Rogaland, sickness absence is 1.4 percentage points lower than the national average. If sickness absence in the rest of the country falls as low as in Rogaland, nearly 30 000 additional person-years would be available for productive activity. Reduced sickness absence and reduced outflows into social security schemes – particularly among young people – would result in substantial economic gains. Economic developments The Norwegian economy is in a period of strong expansion after a marked upturn since summer 2003. The upturn followed a period of slow growth since 1998 and a mild slowdown in 2002 and into 2003. Growth in the mainland economy has been high since then, and higher than expected. When the key policy rate was reduced in 2003, demand and output picked up quickly. The upturn was supported by strong productivity growth, reflected in exports, petroleum investment and, after a period, public demand. So far in the cyclical upturn, the mainland economy has grown by an average of just over 4 per cent annually. The upturn is now in a mature phase. Even though output increased rapidly, it took a long time for employment to edge up. The increase in employment was for a long period slower than in the upturns in the 1980s and 1990s. Employment only began to pick up towards the end of 2005, and has since risen sharply.
Thus, now more-than-ever, macro-surveillance process, early warning models, stresstesting, ever more vigilant risk-based supervision, and strong internal risk management by financial institutions will be instruments crucial for safeguarding our financial stability. In closing this introduction, I am certain that this seminar will be extremely useful and provide an important opportunity for building a close network amongst supervisors in SEACEN, as well as for fostering a closer cooperation between regulators in our region and the US-OCC. So, without further ado, let me declare the second SEACEN-OCC Advanced Seminar on Quantitative Techniques for Macro Surveillance and Determining Resilience of the Banking Sector open, and wish you all every success in this seminar, as well as in your career, and have a pleasant stay in Thailand. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 98/2007