(5) Includes Australia, Canada, New Zealand and South Africa. (6) WEO's April 2016 weights. Sources: Central Bank of Chile, Bloomberg and Emerging Portfolio Fund Research. Table 2 International baseline scenario assumptions 2014  2015 (e) Mar'16 Report  Jun'16 Report  2016 (f) Mar'16 Report  Jun'16 Report  2017 (f) Mar'16 Report  Jun'16 Report  Terms of trade Trading partners' GDP World GDP at PPP World GDP at market exchange rates Developed ec's GDP at PPP Emerging ec's GDP at PPP United States China Eurozone Latin America (excl. Chile) External prices (in $  -1.8 3.4 3.4 2.7 1.7 4.8 2.4 7.3 0.9 1.1 -0.9  -4.5 2.9 3.1 2.4 1.9 4.0 2.4 6.9 1.5 -0.7 -9.7  -4.5 3.0 3.1 2.4 1.9 4.1 2.4 6.9 1.6 -0.5 -9.8  -4.2 2.9 3.1 2.4 1.8 4.0 2.3 6.4 1.5 -0.9 -5.8  -3.9 2.8 3.0 2.3 1.7 4.1 1.9 6.5 1.5 -1.0 -3.8  0.7 3.1 3.3 2.7 1.9 4.5 2.4 6.1 1.6 1.3 1.0  0.1 3.2 3.4 2.7 1.9 4.6 2.3 6.2 1.6 1.5 0.6  LME copper price BML $ cents/lb) WTI oil price $ Brent oil price $ Gasoline parity price $ Libor $ (nominal, 90 days)  311 93 99 731 0.2  249 49 52 467 0.3  249 49 52 467 0.3  220 40 41 398 0.7  215 45 45 401 0.9  230 45 46 420 1.5  225 51 52 420 1.6  (e) Estimate. (f) Forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile.
The third term represents the desire for gradual interest rate changes in criterion 3, i.e. that the current interest rate it should not deviate too far from the rate in the previous period it-1. The fourth term represents criterion 4 and can be interpreted to mean that there is also a cost or risk in setting an interest rate it that deviates substantially from the interest rate implied by simple monetary policy rules itsimple. By giving some weight to the consideration that the key rate  BIS Review 113/2010  3  should not deviate too far from simple rules, monetary policy may become somewhat more robust. 1 Key policy rate  A monetary policy that only takes into account the consideration of bringing inflation rapidly back to target (criterion 1) would imply that the interest rate should rapidly have been reduced to below 1 per cent when we presented the latest Monetary Policy Report. In that case, the interest rate would have had to be raised rapidly again to prevent activity and inflation from becoming too high further ahead. Such a strategy could be consistent with the desire to safeguard against inflation expectations becoming entrenched below the inflation target, but could on the other hand have a substantial impact on output and employment. Developments become more stable if weight is also given to stabilising output (criteria 1 and 2). This would also imply an interest rate reduction first and then an interest rate increase further ahead.