In the first quarter, the seasonally-adjusted GDP series declined 0.8% from the previous quarter, with a drop of 0.2%  2  in non-mining GDP. In April, the seasonally-adjusted Imacec series showed a 0.3% drop compared to March; however, this variation was positive (0.2%) for the non-mining Imacec. Demand has evolved with a marked difference between private consumption and investment, where the former is persistently high. First-quarter data show that private consumption has not lost any significant dynamism and remains above expectations in March, remaining around the highs observed during 2021. Consumption of durable goods has undone part of the fall of the end of last year and services consumption has continued to perform strongly, especially in areas such as health care, restaurants & hotels, and transport, reflecting that the economy has been easing restrictions. Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), in contrast, has shrunk in its every line, as we anticipated in March. In the first quarter, its seasonally-adjusted series fell by almost 6% from the previous quarter. The most notable decline was seen in the construction and other works component, although machinery and equipment also fell (figure 4). In the labor market, the demand for work has lost strength. This is reflected in the decline in the online job postings Index from its peak of a few months ago, although it is still above its levels of mid-2019.
The background data for the May Business Perceptions Report also points to less dynamic employment in the months ahead, in line with business expectations as reported in the IMCE. This is consistent with declining real wages amid rising inflation. In any case, the unemployment rate remains below its historical averages, standing at 7.7% in the February-April quarter (figure 5). On the external front, global inflation has risen significantly in recent months, with core inflation accelerating in several economies. In the United States, in addition to high goods inflation, there has been higher records in services and volatile components of the basket, amid a still tight labor market and high house prices. In the Eurozone, while energy remains the main factor behind price increases, food inflation and core measures have accelerated lately. In the United Kingdom, in addition to higher goods and energy inflation, services have become more prevalent, amid upward wage pressures. In Latin America, energy and food prices have continued to drive inflation, which has also passed through to higher prices for some services (figure 6). The rise in inflation has occurred in a scenario of high cost pressures around the world. The continuing impact of the pandemic on global supply chains and commodity prices has been compounded by the effects of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and recent confinements in China. Producer price indexes have risen to unprecedented levels and across countries in the last year, reflecting the higher costs of commodities and intermediate inputs.