The example of Germany's economic history in the 60 years since the Second World War, which may very briefly be described as 40 years of vigorous expansion and almost 20 years of sluggishness, should be food for thought when extracting all the strong and favourable aspects of decentralisation and avoiding those phenomena entailing risks to the efficient working of the economy, on which any lasting improvement in well-being ultimately hinges. Finally, another policy area to which great heed should be paid when seeking to sustain healthy public finances in the medium and long run is that of Social Security. Admittedly, the forecasts available denote a lack of major problems in the Social Security system in the coming years; however, looking further ahead, it is clear that if changes are not made, the system may become a considerable deadweight holding back growth in the Spanish economy. When the long-term consequences are taken properly into account, it is fairly clear that the sooner Social Security reform begins, the less costly it will be. Or stated the other way round, if Social Security reform continues to be delayed, we may find ourselves faced with a truly dangerous dilemma: either changes are undertaken that will have to be more drastic and may be traumatic in some respect, or otherwise growth in the Spanish economy will be seriously impaired. In sum, on viewing recent developments in the Spanish economy we can draw a positive assessment that should not disregard the accompanying imbalances.
Promoting an environment that is more conducive to both the creation and closure of companies would be a very effective means of modernising the Spanish economy, since it could provide the measures of flexibility and adaptability that are needed to compete amid the pressures generated by globalisation and to boost the incorporation of technological and managerial innovations. But of all the structural policies, the most important is undoubtedly education. As I have said, the educational and training drives of the past decades are largely responsible for the results achieved by the Spanish economy, and improving education and training today is, once again, pivotal to our future growth. When assessing the functioning of the economy, we often refer to differentials with other peer economies in terms of inflation, productivity and many other variables. And it is right to do so since, against a backdrop of international openness and integration, relative behaviour and, in short, competitiveness are essential for the continuous improvement of well-being. However, the most serious gap between Spain and the other major industrialised countries is in the field of education. True, we have improved in this area in recent years. The proportion of the population aged 25-64 with a secondary education has risen from 24% in 1992 to 48% in 2005. But we have yet to reach 50% when the figure is 83% in Germany, 72% in the United Kingdom, 66% in France and over 80% in the Nordic countries.