Scots have shaped the modern world through their contributions to culture and science. The pioneering work of Scottish economists from Adam Smith to Sir James Mirrlees has had great influence on my profession. Among them is David Hume, born just a short walk from here and a great friend and collaborator of Smith. While better known as a philosopher, Hume’s essay “Of the balance of trade” set out the theory of how trade imbalances between nations sharing a currency (gold) would self-correct as inflows of money to surplus countries raised their prices and reduced their competitiveness. As an empiricist, Hume would doubtless admit that recent euro area experience of persistent current account deficits leading not to self-correction but instead to crisis requires a more elaborate explanation. Fortunately economists have over the years obliged with substantial work on the economics of currency unions. Given the recent focus here on the currency and the fundamental role of the Bank of England in maintaining monetary and financial stability across the United Kingdom, I want to draw on that body of economics today to review some of the most important issues with respect to monetary union. I will stick rigidly to what Thomas Carlyle described as the dismal science. Any arrangement to retain sterling in an independent Scotland would need to be negotiated between the Westminster and Scottish Parliaments. The Bank of England would implement whatever monetary arrangements were put in place.
Transcript of the questions asked and the answers given by Dr. Willem F. Duisenberg, President of the ECB, and Christian Noyer, Vice-President of the ECB Question: I would be very interested if you had anything to say about the exchange rate of the euro, if the central bankers of Europe seem comfortable with it. It seems that the strategy of the ECB is now, in light of today’s actions, a double strategy to re-invigorate the European economy. On the one hand, you got the exports boosted by the euro and, on the other hand, you got an interest rate cut to lubricate the economy as well. Duisenberg: First of all, as far as the exchange rate of the euro is concerned, I always like to take a slightly longer term perspective than is normally done in articles and considerations about it. I would like to point out that, if you look at the rate of the euro, and look back to what we - in our jargon - call the synthetic euro, the euro that you can calculate before the euro was in existence, then you can observe that the rate of the euro to the dollar has been more or less stable at around a level of USD 1.08 to USD 1.10 from the middle of 1997 until early September 1998. In the middle of September it started to rise to reach a level of 1.16 at the end of the year, and that was the level at which we entered the euro era.