Third, the estimates of the natural level of output at the end of 2022 are much lower than predicted before the pandemic. The current HLW estimates of r-star in the United States are shown in Figure 3. For comparison, the figure also shows estimates using a version of the model that is not adjusted to take into account COVID or outliers and holds the parameter values fixed at estimates using data through the end of 2019. The two sets of estimates are very similar through 2019. They differ sharply during the acute period of the pandemic, however, when the estimates from the unmodified model exhibit large swings due to the presence of sizeable outliers. Interestingly, the two estimates are very close to each other at the end of the sample. That is, the modifications to the model do not interfere with "letting the data speak." A Modest Imprint Based on the new r-star estimates for Canada, the Euro Area, and the United States, we see no signs of a significant reversal of the decline in r-star estimates evident in prior decades.13 In fact, in all three economies, the r-star estimates in 2022 are within twotenths of a percentage point of the corresponding estimate in 2019. The largest differences between model estimates pre- and post-pandemic relate to the level of each economy's potential output. Figure 4 compares the model's measure of the natural level of output based on estimates using data through the fourth quarter of 2019 (the blue line) to current estimates.
Interest income grew by 162% over the year and interest expense by 178%. In total, interest income increased by 15.6 b.kr. and interest expense by 13.7 b.kr. to leave net interest income of 1.9 b.kr. Operating expenses, i.e. salary and payroll expenses and other operating expenses, were 1.5 b.kr., depreciation 90 m.kr. and a supplementary contribution to the Bank Employees’ Pension Fund 386 m.kr., in accordance with an agreement between the Fund and its member organisations. By law, the transfer to the Treasury is calculated as one-third of net profit, i.e. 16 m.kr. Profit after transfer to the Treasury but excluding exchange rate gain therefore amounted to 32 m.kr. In 2006, the Central Bank's balance sheet total increased by 159 b.kr. to almost 322 b.kr. at the end of the year. The main explanation is that total Treasury deposits in the Central Bank rose by 135 b.kr. over 2006 to 211 b.kr. at the end of the year. The balance on Government current accounts increased by 47 b.kr. and the deposit in the foreign currency account amounted to 94 b.kr. at the end of the year. Most of the foreign currency deposit is accounted for by the € billion loan taken by the Treasury towards the end of the year to boost the Central Bank's foreign reserves. Notes and coin in circulation grew by 10% to 14.5 b.kr. and the Central Bank's liabilities towards deposit money banks by just over 10 b.kr.