Jan F Qvigstad: On making good decisions Speech by Mr Jan F Qvigstad, Deputy Governor of the Norges Bank (Central Bank of Norway), at the Norwegian Academy of Science and Letters, Oslo, 9 November 2010. The text below may differ from the actual presentation. This speech does not contain assessments of the economic situation or current interest rate setting. *  *  *  I would like to thank Øyvind Eitrheim, Amund Holmsen, Marie Norum Lerbak, Kjetil Olsen and Øistein Røisland for their valuable assistance in preparing this lecture. I would also like to thank Helle Snellingen for her contribution to the translation of the Norwegian text into English. 1. Introduction  When Hans Rasmus Astrup was appointed minister in Johan Sverdrup’s government in 1885, he sold his business in Stockholm and moved back to Norway. As I mentioned in my lecture here two years ago 1 , Astrup was at the time perhaps Norway’s wealthiest man. On his return to Norway, he needed a place to live, bought a plot of land here in Drammensveien and decided to build the house we are sitting in now. The question might be raised whether it was a good decision to build such a large and ostentatious house. But Astrup was not just looking for a home for his family. The house was also intended to provide a venue for interdisciplinary and political discussions. 2 We all make many decisions every single day, some more important than others.
In hindsight, more micro-data would have detected increasing systemic vulnerabilities in the residential property market, as well as increasing exposures among economic agents throughout the economy. To this end, more granular data would overcome the limitations of aggregated data in detecting vulnerabilities that are concentrated in selected segments of the economy and financial system. While these challenges in totality may appear to be rather daunting, I strongly believe they are surmountable, especially with greater collaboration amongst statisticians, compilers and end-users of data. It is with this in mind that the Regional Statistics Conference was envisioned, organised and realised. On behalf of the Local Organising Committee, I would like to take this opportunity to thank all our key partners in making this conference a reality. Special thanks to the ISI and its SEA Regional Network for choosing to have this inaugural regional conference in Kuala Lumpur. I would also like to thank Tan Sri Andrew Sheng; Professor Dr. Pedro Silva; and Mr. Agus Sudjianto, as well as all paper presenters for sharing their thoughts and experiences at the conference. As part of our effort to encourage more involvement of young statisticians in statistical conferences and to recognise their participation in this conference, we will confer the Young Statistician’s Award of the ISI-RSC 2014 at the end of this conference. There are 26 entries for 4 prizes under this award. The winners will be announced at the closing ceremony on Wednesday afternoon.