In 95% of cases, the massive fluctuations in our income can be attributed to the fluctuating values in gold and foreign exchange positions. Experience has shown that valuation gains and losses on financial investments tend to level out again in the long term. Based on these conditions, we thus estimate the earnings potential of our assets to be between 2% and 3%, which translates into an income of between CHF 1.7 and CHF 2.5 billion per annum on the total assets of CHF 85 billion. Given the fluctuations in the exchange rate and gold price, however, the earnings generated can deviate greatly from this amount. For instance, the marked increase in the gold price this year has resulted in valuation gains of roughly CHF 8 billion to date. Should the gold price drop back next year to its end-2003 level, however, this would lead to a valuation loss of over CHF 7 billion. Long-term income estimates should not be based on such unusual gains and losses. Some of the income is allocated to provisions, thereby ensuring the growth of the currency reserves necessary for monetary policy. This allocation (currently approximately CHF 1 billion per annum) should be made in proportion to nominal GDP growth. After deduction of the SNB’s operating expenses of currently CHF 250 million, roughly CHF 1 billion remains for distribution to the Confederation and cantons. Based on the assumptions regarding the earnings potential of our assets, we can expect a distributable annual profit to be somewhere in this region in the foreseeable future.
Last year the Governing Council adopted a comprehensive action plan[9] to further incorporate climate change considerations into its monetary policy framework. There are a number of actions to which the ECB is committed under this plan. Let me now give a very concrete example of how the ECB has taken into account climate change considerations in the context of its corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP). Under the CSPP, the Eurosystem purchases corporate bonds for monetary policy purposes. Right now we are in the reinvestment phase which means that we are no longer increasing our portfolio but only reinvesting bonds that mature. Up until October 2022, the Eurosystem purchased these bonds in accordance with the “market benchmark”. However, owing to the way the corporate bond market functions, this “market benchmark” has been criticised as leading to the purchase of a larger proportion of bonds from carbon-intensive firms. Therefore, from October 2022, the ECB started to implement its decision to “tilt” CSPP reinvestments to increase the share of assets from issuers with better climate performance, rather than those with poorer climate performance. There are two main reasons for this decision. First, the ECB considered this essential in order to effectively pursue its primary objective of maintaining price stability. Given that carbon-intensive issuers are more vulnerable to physical and transition risks arising from climate change, large holdings of bonds from such companies pose higher financial risks to the Eurosystem’s balance sheet, which has an impact on the implementation of its monetary policy.