There is psychological research, in the field of cognition, demonstrating that people have an easier time understanding conditional statements if they’re less abstract and more rooted in real-world experience. In addition, I suspect there may be sometimes a degree of wishfulness involved. None of us likes uncertainty. Longstanding research has identified related, and deep-seated, cognitive biases. We are all prone to over-confidence in our own predictions and, after the event, to the belief that what has happened was entirely predictable (and, indeed, that we predicted it[19]). I think there may be something of the same underlying phenomenon at work in people’s desire to know the “plan” for interest rates. In a letter to the FT in 2018, my former colleague Martin Weale made a similar point: “The pressure on the Bank of England for clearer communication is a consequence of people wanting the future to be less uncertain than it is.”[20] Anyhow, whatever the true cause, I sometimes worry that there’s a potential cost to this (one that matters more than the odd “unreliable boyfriend” tag). If people come to rely too much on explicit steers from the central bank, forward interest rates and other asset prices may become insufficiently sensitive to economic events. And if in turn the central bank acquiesces to the desire for more definitive statements about the future path of interest rates, and feels the need to signal policy changes well in advance, this could compromise its ability to respond to surprises that occur in the meantime.
This would institute a process by which these businesses, which are important infrastructure in the Thai foreign exchange market, are given attention and importance to ensure that they contribute to building confidence and trust. 12. In conclusion, let me congratulate once again the winners of this year’s FX Award. Let me also thank Thomson Reuters again for inviting me today. With the support and continued cooperation from all side, the Thai financial markets would continue to press on with the reform efforts that have been made over the years. These improvement will help raise the standard of practice and ensure that our financial market continue to make a positive contribution to the growth and development of the Thai economy which is the ultimate goal for sustainable development. Thank you. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches