I would once again like to emphasize that any new data or information on the inflation outlook may lead to a change in the policy stance of the Central Bank. Therefore, the indicated path for the policy rates should not be perceived as a commitment on behalf of the CBT. Distinguished Guests, Revised projections suggest that the contribution of energy, food and services will be close to 5 percent at the end of 2009. In other words, assuming no further hikes in administered prices (except those implied by automatic pricing mechanisms), meeting the 4 percent target at the end of 2009 would be possible only if the prices of goods excluding food, energy and tobacco deflate by 3 percent. However, factors such as rising import prices, potential second round impacts of supply shocks, and the structural inertia in inflation could continue to impose downward stickiness in goods prices. Therefore, converging to the medium term target of 4 percent may extend beyond two years, even when tight monetary policy is maintained for an extended period. Under these circumstances, getting inflation back to the 4 percent by the end of 2009 would require offsetting the first round effects, and thus create undesired fluctuations in economic  BIS Review 62/2008  11  activity and relative prices. That is why we envisage a framework in which inflation remains higher than 4 percent at the end of 2009. The forecasts presented above deserve particular attention, given that inflation is likely to stay above the target in the next two years.
Benoît Cœuré: Policy coordination in a multipolar world Remarks by Benoît Cœuré, Member of the Executive Board of the ECB, at the 5th annual Cusco conference organised by the Central Reserve Bank of Peru and the Reinventing Bretton Woods Committee: “70 years after Bretton Woods: Managing the interconnectedness of the world economy”, Cusco, 22 July 2014 *  *  *  I would like to thank Michele Ca’ Zorzi and G. Georgiadis for contributing to these remarks. I remain solely responsible for the opinions expressed herein. Dear Governor Velarde, dear Marc Uzan, ladies and gentlemen, I would like to thank the organisers for giving me the opportunity to share some thoughts with you on the changes in the international monetary system (IMS) and the role of monetary policy coordination. History casts a long shadow over the IMS. Over the past three decades, however, the global economy has changed in decisive ways. Three aspects are particularly striking. First, financial factors have become an increasingly relevant source of cross-country interlinkages, with some evidence of cross-country de-linkages since the global financial crisis. Second, emerging economies have raised their clout, as reflected by the impact of their business cycles on global growth and the growing use of their currencies: the global economy has become multipolar. And third, monetary policy in advanced economies has – more recently – entered new territory by resorting to unconventional measures.