In particular, it surveys inflation expectations over the medium term, at a 4-year horizon, and delivers very useful information since each forecaster is asked about his own probability distribution of inflation over the forecast horizon. It might then be completed by other surveys looking at longer horizons, such as the Consensus Forecast for instance. According to these surveys, medium to long-term expectations have proven remarkably stable in the euro area, standing at a level around 1.8 - 1.9%, in spite of short-term inflation dynamics being adversely affected by a series of sizeable supply shocks that have impacted the economy since 2000. Another very useful kind of survey is the European Commission’s harmonised survey of price expectations of individual households, which completes the set of alternative measures of inflation expectations. Here, households are asked whether they expect price over the next 12 months to rise more or less rapidly than over the past 12 months. The time horizon here is very short and, since 2000, the survey has delivered more worrisome results. A divergence has actually emerged, both in France and the euro area as a whole, between actual inflation and inflation as perceived by households. The proportion of households that feel that prices have risen sharply has substantially increased, without any correlation to actual developments in the general price level.
A deep, single capital market will also strengthen the international role of the euro,5 as further developed euro-denominated markets, derivatives and benchmarks will reduce transaction costs, curb spreads and mitigate rollover risks. This will in turn attract foreign investors and widen the possibilities of using the euro in international transactions. Conclusion Let me conclude. Assessing potential vulnerabilities in the light of current challenges is key to making financial markets and infrastructures more resilient. Authorities and market participants are reflecting on the lessons to be learned from the pandemic and this will be a key topic of today’s discussions. Our panellists will provide insights on CCP margin practices and the related funding and operational complexities that emerged last spring and which we need to address. This conference will also provide an opportunity to discuss the direct and indirect implications of climate change for central clearing. Cash and derivatives markets have already developed products to facilitate sustainable investments and help hedge against climate risks. Our panellists will also consider the changing clearing landscape, including some of the regulatory and supervisory cooperation issues I have mentioned and the global dimension of this debate. Given the challenges currently faced by economies and financial markets, finding the right mix of internal capacity building, cooperation and innovation will be crucial to make central clearing even more resilient. I am sure this conference will give rise to a fruitful exchange of views. Thank you for your attention.