Although the sector has shed jobs over the past two years, it remains an important and valuable component of the local economy. There are also numerous corporate headquarters in the county and a notable manufacturing presence, particularly in the pharmaceuticals, electrical equipment and aerospace industries. In addition, the whole tri-state region has benefited from its proximity to New York City, where the rebound in the economy – and also in employment – has been much stronger. Fairfield County’s connection to New York City is not quite as strong as Long Island’s or the lower Hudson Valley: About 7 percent of working residents in the county commute to New York City compared to about 20 percent in those areas. Still, the city’s strong pace of job creation during the current recovery is supporting incomes in the county. Turning to the recent performance of the economy, this area is growing pretty much in line with the nation, at least in terms of employment. That’s a bit of an improvement from 2012 when, after solid gains in 2010 and 2011, job creation in both Fairfield County and Connecticut had stalled. Some sectors, such as education, health, and professional and business services were adding jobs; but those were offset by job losses not only in finance, but also in the goods-producing and distributing sectors. And at the end of October, Superstorm Sandy hit the region, causing major damage and disruption.
As Chairman Bernanke noted in his most recent press conference, a strong majority of FOMC participants no longer favor selling agency MBS securities during the monetary policy normalization process. This implies a bigger balance sheet for longer, which provides additional accommodation today and continuing support for mortgage markets going forward. Fourth, even under this scenario, a rise in short-term rates is very likely to be a long way off. Not only will it likely take considerable time to reach the FOMC’s 6.5 percent unemployment rate threshold, but also the FOMC could wait considerably longer before raising short-term rates. The fact that inflation is coming in well below the FOMC’s 2 percent objective is relevant here. Most FOMC participants currently do not expect short-term rates to begin to rise until 2015. To reiterate what I said last week, some commentators have interpreted the recent shift in the market-implied path of short-term interest rates as indicating that market participants now expect the first increases in the federal funds rate target to come much earlier than previously thought. Setting aside whether this is the correct interpretation of recent price moves, let me emphasize that such an expectation would be quite out of sync with both FOMC statements and the expectations of most FOMC participants. Regional economic conditions Turning to the regional economy, my colleagues and I at the New York Fed continually track conditions in our District, and we have a number of tools we use for that purpose.