Marzunisham Omar: Risk and opportunity – managing risk for development Welcoming remarks by Mr Marzunisham Omar, Assistant Governor of the Central Bank of Malaysia, at the WB-BNM Seminar on the World Development Report 2014 “Risk and Opportunity: Managing Risk for Development”, Kuala Lumpur, 29 April 2014. *  *  *  It is my pleasure to welcome you to Sasana Kijang this morning to the seminar on the World Development Report 2014, with the theme “Risk and Opportunity: Managing Risk for Development”. Reading through the Report, I’m struck by two observations: •  first, in the past 50 years, middle-income countries have been in recession 14 to 16 per cent of the time and low income countries, a staggering 27 per cent of the time. •  second, from 1970 to 2011, there were 147 banking crises in 116 countries. So, while the world has, in the last 50 years, made significant progress in terms of economic development, poverty eradication and overall standard of living, the above observation begs the question of whether the global economy is also more prone to crises, highlighting the fragility of the economic system that is currently in place. This reinforces the need to have a proper framework to identify and manage risks, towards achieving a common shared goal of sustaining long-term development. Almost six years after the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the world economy is still coping with the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis, notably the worst financial crisis in the last 70 years.
In strengthening the resilience of our economy and promoting the sustainability of growth, the role of policymakers go beyond managing short-term fluctuations in business and financial cycles. Equally important are structural reforms and institutional building that would increase the capacity and flexibility of the economy to absorb shocks and to improve the competitiveness and inclusiveness of the economy. The resilient and ability of an economy to face a crisis depends as much on  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  what has been done throughout the years to strengthen the economic fundamentals and the financial system. However, the implementation of structural reforms is not without risks. In this regard, reforms that are undertaken in an environment of growth and stability would have a higher chance of success, as it would cushion the potential disruptions to economic activity and dislocations to vulnerable segments of society. The formulation of appropriate and consistent short-term and long-term policies, in turn, requires policymakers to have a holistic understanding of the domestic economy and financial system. From experience, a broad macro-level understanding of issues alone may not be sufficient, as issues at the sectoral level may be obscured at the aggregate level. This highlights the importance of having a firm understanding of micro-level behaviour and reaction patterns of households and businesses, which would reinforce the design of macrobased policy strategies. In this regard, the World Development Report 2014 is useful in facilitating policymakers in making more informed policy decisions.