We can also look at medians of various percentiles of the individual distributions.27 We measure aggregate forecast uncertainty as the median across respondents of the individual IQRs. We also monitor the probability that respondents attach to extreme inflation outcomes by computing, for instance, the median probability of deflation: in other words, the median of the individual subjective probabilities assigned to outcomes with inflation less than zero. Finally, to characterize the variation in inflation expectations across respondents, we compute the dispersion of expected values: the IQR of individual density means. Again, we can look at other percentiles of the distribution across respondents to detect possible clustering and polarization.28 We publish at a monthly frequency many of the aggregate measures of inflation expectations, as well as measures for a broad range of labor market  25  Delavande et al. (2011b). 26  See Bruine de Bruin et al. (2011b). 27  By tracking the same individuals over time, we can in principle study the extent to which respondents update their expectations in response to new information. For instance, if respondents receive information that deviates from their priors, their density forecasts could initially exhibit greater uncertainty and even become bimodal until they converge to a new value for their central tendency. 28  For example, in the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, we detected a certain amount of polarization in the distribution of inflation expectations, with some consumers expecting relatively high inflation, and some expecting deflation.
2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  While foreign direct investment continues to gravitate to emerging economies, in particular to Asia, the scale of such investment activity has also moderated. Finally, the international regulatory reforms and the unilateral initiatives in a number of the major advanced economies have also had their intended and unintended consequences. The reforms, which have focused on building a stronger global regulatory framework and raising the resilience of the banking system, are still in their early stages of implementation. While it is too early to verify the concerns raised on the new prudential standards, the call has, however, been for the need to ensure that the benefits of greater systemic resilience will exceed any costs to the efficient functioning of the financial intermediation process and to the real economy. For Asia, the new standards contribute positively for regional financial integration, as they promote a more consistent regional approach to regulation. They also work to strengthen regional financial stability arrangements, through more robust frameworks for the oversight of systemically important financial institutions at the regional level. These reforms have, therefore, encouraged increased communication and closer coordination on financial stability developments between regulators in the Asian region. These financial reforms are, however, not without challenges for emerging economies. In particular, the standardised regulatory prescription goes against the grain of regulation that is proportionate to risk.