This means that periods in which ex ante saving exceeds desired investment might lead to periods of persistent unemployment. In this respect, the financial system plays an important role. Financial intermediaries match borrowers and savers. If the financial system is under stress and lending standards are being tightened, ex ante investment is likely to decline relative to saving, all else being equal. The financial intermediation process and the creation of credit is the primary channel through which monetary policy affects the economy. By influencing the volume of credit creation, monetary policy strives to keep ex ante saving and investment – alternatively, aggregate demand and aggregate supply – in rough balance. Too rapid a pace of credit creation would overstimulate investment relative to saving, potentially increasing the rate of inflation and this, in turn, could damage the economy’s long-run performance. Too slow of a pace of credit creation would likely lead to an ex ante shortfall of investment relative to saving, causing unemployment to increase. This analytical framework also applies to the global economy, but with an added level of complexity. At the global level, income equals output and saving equals investment on an ex post basis. However, for an individual country, saving can exceed investment or, alternatively, production can exceed domestic demand to the extent that a country’s exports exceed its imports. This requires that, for some other economy or group of economies, investment must exceed saving, or alternatively, domestic demand must exceed production and imports must exceed exports.
The world economy, including the euro area, is still undergoing a severe downturn, with the prospect of both external and domestic demand remaining very weak over 2009 before gradually recovering in the course of 2010. This assessment incorporates a number of adverse developments which are likely to materialise over the coming months, such as a further deterioration in labour markets. At the same time, available indicators of inflation expectations over the medium to longer term remain firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of keeping inflation rates at levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. The outcome of the monetary analysis confirms that inflationary pressure has been diminishing, as money and credit growth have further decelerated in recent months. Against the background of these developments, after  BIS Review 56/2009  1  today’s decisions we expect price stability to be maintained over the medium term, thereby supporting the purchasing power of euro area households. Let me now explain our assessment in some more detail, starting with the economic analysis. Reflecting the impact of the financial market turmoil, economic activity continued to weaken in the euro area in the course of the first quarter of 2009, in parallel with the ongoing downturn in the world economy. This weakening in the first quarter appears to have been significantly more pronounced than projected in March. More recently, there have been some tentative signs in survey data of a stabilisation, albeit at very low levels.