Financial markets are more likely to cry wolf, making Paul Samuelson’s observation fifty years ago that “the stock market has predicted nine of the past five recessions” as relevant today as it was then.3 For what it is worth, market-implied probabilities of a recession in the US are around 20%, nearly three times higher relative to this time a year ago (Chart 4). There are multiple definitions of what constitutes a global recession. Some have used a benchmark of global GDP growth falling below 2½% or 3%, whilst the IMF uses a definition of a fall in global GDP per capita.4 On the IMF’s definition, there have been four global recessions since WWII: in 1975, 1982, 1991 and 2009. 2  See: Baker, S, Bloom, N and Davis, S (2015) Measuring economic policy uncertainty, NBER Working Paper No.21633 From Samuelson’s 1966 column ‘Science and Stocks’ in Newsweek. 4 This is equivalent to global GDP growth falling below the current rate of population growth of 1%. 3  4  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  4  Chart 4: Market-implied probabilities of a US recession have risen Per cent  100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0  1973  1978  1983  1988  1993  1998  NBER recessions  2003  2008  2013  2018  Fed recession indicator  Sources: Federal Reserve Board; NBER.
François Villeroy de Galhau: Technological innovations in payments and beyond Opening speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Bank of France and CNPS (French Payments Committee) conference "Technological innovations in payments and beyond", Paris, 6 January 2017. * * * Ladies and gentlemen, I am very pleased to welcome you all to Paris, for this conference on technological innovations in payments and, more generally, in the financial system. Representatives from a wide range of stakeholders, from market to regulatory spheres, are here today and I have no doubt that this variety of backgrounds will make the discussions fruitful. Before leaving the floor to the speakers and panellists, I would like to share with you a few thoughts on three challenges raised by digitalisation, from the perspective of a central banker. 1. Technological innovations are opening up new opportunities for payments, which can provide benefits to the whole economy Payments are often viewed as a very technical and incidental activity, and sometimes even just as a matter of “plumbing”. And yet they are crucial for our economy and for central banks. For the Banque de France, payments are of the essence in all our three missions – what we call the “3 Ss”: monetary strategy, financial stability and economic services. First, monetary strategy: what is at stake with payments is the future of money.