A March 2021 survey shows that central banks’ interest in big data and machine learning has increased markedly over the last few years. 8 The SNB is no exception. The COVID-19 pandemic brought the need to exploit non-standard data into sharp focus. In normal times, official economic indicators and surveys are sufficient to monitor economic developments. But such standard data are only available at lower frequency and with a certain time delay. With events unfolding rapidly during the first wave of the COVID19 crisis, the need for non-standard, real-time data that are available at higher frequency became more pressing than ever before. To monitor economic activity, daily mobility and daily card transaction data became particularly useful as concurrent economic indicators. During the first lockdown in spring  8  Sebastian Doerr, Leonardo Gambacorta and José María Serena Garralda (2021), ‘Big data and machine learning in central banking’, BIS Working Papers, No. 930, March 2021. Page 7/10  2020, card payments data showed the sharp drop in economic activity in real time. 9 While online payments in retail trade – represented by the red bars in Chart 7 – increased, stationary card payments fell by more than 20% in March and April compared to the previous year, as can be seen from the blue bars. Such data also allow a sectoral and regional breakdown. We could thus observe the pronounced payment shifts that took place from urban to suburban and rural areas, and across cantons.
As I have noted, to the extent that these are sensible regulatory improvements in line with global norms intended to enable delegation and global business models to operate effectively and practically while managing risk, one would have little concern. To the extent, however, that they are motivated by Brexit and a desire to pull activity and risk back within jurisdictional boundaries,  22  contrary to current global practice, I do have a concern that they could act as the  harbinger of fragmentation to come. That would raise the cost and reduce the efficiency of market-based intermediation of savings in the EU and, if it led to wider effects, further afield. It would also slow, and perhaps frustrate, the development of market-based finance globally as a way of diversifying economic risks and benefits across jurisdictions and of dampening economic and financial shocks. And from a macroprudential perspective, for the reasons I have set out earlier this morning, that could be the biggest long-term loss. 22  The stated aims of the European Commission’s proposal are to ensure effectively supervision of outsourcing, delegation and risk transfer arrangements in third countries.