I cannot finish without reminding you that tomorrow is the 300th anniversary of the birth of Benjamin Franklin, arguably the greatest of the American founding fathers. During his lengthy stays in England, Benjamin Franklin visited Kent many times. To celebrate his tercentenary the American Brewing Association has produced a new recipe for Franklin’s favourite beer. The hops recommended for the recipe are Kent Goldings. Despite the fears of the demonstrators on Hop Saturday in 1908, the Kent hop industry has not disappeared altogether. The area under planting is certainly much smaller, but research in centres such as Wye College has produced the new hedgerow hops which are recognised worldwide. Employment in Kent, though, has moved into new and more productive sectors. Adapting to changes in the external environment is not easy for any of us- whether running a business or setting monetary policy - but if we do adjust the benefits will accrue, if not to everyone immediately then to the great majority over the years to come. BIS Review 9/2006  3
We are assuming in our most recent forecast that GDP in Sweden will increase by 2.2 per cent this year and by 3.7 per cent next year. These are upward revisions of around one percentage point and half a percentage point respectively, compared with July last year. They are not very large changes in growth, but they are changes in the right direction and a sign that economic activity is on firmer ground. The largest change in our forecasts concerns the labour market, as I mentioned earlier. In July we were assuming that employment would fall by just over 3 per cent a year and would not begin to rise until 2011. Now we have already seen an upturn in employment and we are instead forecasting a marginal increase in the number of persons employed. In July we were assuming that unemployment would peak at 11 per cent in 2011. Following the large fall in production this appeared to be a reasonable forecast in line with historical patterns, and it was also shared by most other analysts. However, developments are now rather different  BIS Review 58/2010  5  and our current forecast is that the current unemployment level of 9 per cent is a peak and that unemployment will be 8 per cent at the end of our forecast period. How has the stronger labour market affected the interest rate decisions?