See, for instance, Brunnermeier and Sannikov (2013). BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  I think that the division into these three main views provides a good reflection of the current debate. But there are of course no sharp dividing lines between them, rather the dividing lines are relatively fluid. And where one finds oneself on the scale ultimately depends on which argument or arguments one allocates the greatest significance. It will probably come as no surprise to those of you who follow the monetary policy debate in Sweden that I myself have great sympathy for the principle that monetary policy needs to support macroprudential policy. I would therefore place myself fairly close to the second view in Smets’ description. So what has led me to this view? Allow me to begin by giving my interpretation of what a monetary policy that leans against the wind entails. What does it mean that monetary policy leans against the wind? There are different ways of illustrating how and why financial imbalances and risks should be included in the monetary policy deliberations. Essentially it is a question of avoiding scenarios where the imbalances will lead to very negative effects on GDP, unemployment and inflation. So in principle it is a question, as usual in monetary policy, of stabilising inflation and the real economy.
Investments into the GCC are being driven by several positive factors: infrastructure development to cater for its hydrocarbon sector, rapidly-growing populations, market liberalisation and diversification beyond oil and gas. A 2014 industry survey 1 by Mergermarkets highlighted that investments from Asia into the GCC would soon equal that traditionally sourced from Europe, as Asian companies become more active in the Middle East. The converse is also true. Attracted by Asia’s good growth prospects, GCC investors have increased their investments not just in energy markets, but also in telecommunications, finance, and other industries in Asia. For instance, GCC state-owned oil firms have been investing in ASEAN energy sectors, while GCC Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are also showing interest in the agriculture sector across ASEAN. 5. Thirdly, continued growth of GCC and Asian economies, and an expanding network of Free Trade Agreements, will reinforce connectivity between the regions. Notwithstanding more volatile and lower oil prices, the IMF expects the GCC to expand 3.4% in 2015 2, and 3.2% in 2016. Asia will remain the world’s fastest growing region, recording 5.6% growth in 2015, before easing slightly to 5.5% in the following year. Trade and investment linkages will be strengthened with the conclusion of trade discussions between GCC and China, Korea,  1  Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Investment Outlook 2014, Mergermarkets. 2  IMF Regional Economic Outlook Update for Middle East & Central Asia, May 2015. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  India, Pakistan, Malaysia and ASEAN.