Moreover, in line with the MTP, it is envisaged that the rising debt-to-GDP ratios will reverse their course steadily starting from 2011, and hence the risk premium would not display any significant changes throughout the forecast horizon. BIS Review 143/2009  15  Table 1: Annual Growth Forecasts 2009  2010  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  Previous Forecast  New Forecast  World  -1,4  -1,1  2,5  3,1  Developed Economies  -3,8  -3,4  0,6  1,3  United States  -2,6  -2,7  0,8  1,5  Euro Area  -4,8  -4,2  -0,3  0,3  Developing Countries  1,5  1,7  4,7  5,1  All OECD  -4,1  -3,7  0,7  -  United States  -2,8  -2,8  0,9  -  Euro Area  -4,8  -3,9  0,0  -  World  -2,3  -2,3  2,6  2,7  United States  -2,6  -2,5  2,4  2,6  Euro Area  -4,4  -3,9  1,0  1,1  IMF  OECD  Consensus Economics*  Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, July and IMF World Economic Outlook Update, October. OECD Economic Outlook, June and OECD Economic Outlook, September. *Consensus Forecasts, September and October.
Greater emphasis and clarity are needed as to the purposes and limits of public intervention, and the extent to which those interests warrant different degrees, modes, and timing of public and private sector involvement, depending on the particular country and circumstances. In this way all parties will be better placed to understand current developments and how the international community might react to future strains. The argument against standstills There are of course other points of view. I would note that some have suggested that perhaps we should go in a different direction, that we should seek to build time back in by calling a time out. In particular, it has been suggested that an early recourse to comprehensive payment standstills (suspensions of debt service perhaps amplified or reinforced by capital controls) would increase the manageability of crises and enhance predictability. My reading of the record convinces me that trying to freeze market processes would do the opposite. I would like to share with you my thinking on this point. •  The desire for certainty and control which seems to underlie standstill proposals is understandable, as it offers the promise of using less public money, and seemingly entails less risk that creditors will be bailed out for poor credit decisions. But the control and manageability that might result may be more seeming than real. •  For one, a perceived disposition to preemptively lock the door seems likely to send investors heading for the exits all that much sooner.