Over the past year, there has been  4  BIS Review 14/2003  extensive restructuring and downscaling, especially in the ICT sector and the airline industry. With the prospect of continued weak developments in the global economy and an uncertain stock market, reductions in capacity may still be necessary. The fall in share prices reflects weaker expectations concerning future earnings. This may prompt enterprises to postpone or cancel investment plans. When share prices are low, companies may also find that raising capital by means of new issues is not an attractive alternative. Strong growth in private consumption has contributed to sustaining activity in the Norwegian economy. Sharp wage growth, combined with reductions in direct and indirect taxes, resulted in close to 5% growth in household real disposable income last year. Real income growth will be considerably lower in 2003 and probably lower than projected earlier. Imbalances in the Norwegian electricity market have resulted in a sharp increase in electricity prices. This implies a considerable reduction in household real income growth. The interest rate reductions this winter will have the opposite effect. In addition, developments in employment are expected to be weaker and wage growth somewhat lower this year than previously projected. During the last six months, households have become less optimistic about the economic outlook. Increased uncertainty in the labour market and lower confidence point to heightened caution and increased saving in the household sector. Lower interest rates have the opposite effect. Household saving behaviour may also be affected by high electricity prices.
The letter says: “The rise in the cost of living in the past three years has been larger than has been seen in many other countries that compete with us in foreign markets. When the cost of living rises, so wages should also rise and consequently so too production costs, with the result that our competitiveness declines. Do we not have to fear this?” Unfortunately we do not know what advice Nurkse gave to Jaakson, and within only a couple of years the question was no longer of any great relevance for Eesti Pank. During the second world war, Ragnar Nurkse focused in his work on inflation and exchange rates. The research that he published on these topics has led many writers to call Nurkse one of the main architects of the Bretton Woods system. After the war Nurkse taught for thirteen years in the prestigious Columbia University in New York. There he mainly focused on development economics, earning a great reputation as an international advisor on the subject. He died unexpectedly and still relatively young at only 51. The view of Ragnar Nurkse of the time notes his thorough knowledge of economic theory and practice, his original ideas, and his clear vision. He was the sort of man who is clearly needed in the world today. When Estonia regained its independence it chose the path of reform, with a unique combination of conservatism, innovation and a recognition of its own limitations. Estonia chose once again the road to Europe.