ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES Address by Governor Øystein Olsen to the Supervisory Council of Norges Bank and invited guests on Thursday 13 February 2020  THURSDAY 13 FEBRUARY 2020  Economic perspectives 2020  NORGES BANK ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 13 FEBRUARY 2020  FROM OIL AND GAS TO FINANCIAL CAPITAL “We are now moving into the final phase of a period where domestic raw materials and energy sources have provided an essential basis for economic expansion. Hereafter, growth must increasingly rely on the production of finished goods in areas where we do not have a natural advantage.”1 The same could be said about the challenges facing the Norwegian economy today. But this quote is from 50 years ago – from the annual address by central bank governor Erik Brofoss on 16 February 1970. The 50th anniversary of the first oil discovery on the Ekofisk field was commemorated in October last year. Aptly enough, this took place on the same day as the Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) topped NOK 10 000 billion. In the governor’s address on the economic situation, there was no mention of what was to become Norway’s main revenue source over the next half-century. In hindsight, it can be said that what was to be his last annual address may not have been the most prescient. To be sure, it was still highly uncertain at that time how much oil and gas were actually hidden under the ocean floor 320 kilometres southwest of Stavanger.
Perhaps the ability to pay high wages has been more dependent on the oil industry than thought earlier. Going forward, the key to success for Norway will be the same as for other countries: We must make the most of our number one resource - labour. The value of Norway’s human capital is around three times the sum of its natural resources, production capital and financial capital.7 Our future welfare level therefore depends on how many are in work and how productive they are. Employment in Norway is no longer as high as it once was. Today, a smaller share of the population aged between 25 and 54 is employed than 20 years ago (Chart 17), and the share is now higher in a number of countries, not least because female employment abroad has also risen. At the same time, the share of adult men in work in Norway has fallen. 7 See Meld. St. 29 (2016-2017), Long-term perspectives for the Norwegian economy 2017. 16  NORGES BANK  Chart 17a No longer at the top of the employment chart. Employment. Share of population aged 25-54.