There are also signs that employment is rising in education, the public sector and health and social services, from the weak levels recorded in the first six months of last year. Manufacturing employment remained well below the level one year earlier in the fourth quarter of 2003, but is falling at a slower pace. Unemployment has been fairly stable. Adjusted for seasonal variations, LFS  4  BIS Review 16/2004  unemployment stood at 4.6 per cent of the labour force as measured by Statistics Norway’s Labour Force Survey (LFS) in the fourth quarter of 2003. Growth in household demand, petroleum investment and increased activity in the business sector are paving the way for a rise in employment in the period ahead. On the other hand, intensified competition and continued rationalisation in the business sector may have a dampening impact on labour demand. This year, employment growth is expected to be fairly moderate even if there is a sharp rise in output. Only a slight decrease in unemployment is projected for 2004. Unemployment is projected to edge down in 2005 and 2006. After several years of high wage growth, pay increases in last year’s settlement were more moderate. Annual wage growth was nonetheless 4½% as substantial increases with effect from 2003 were awarded in the 2002 main wage settlement. Wage growth is projected to decline to 3¾% this year. The labour market appears to be improving somewhat more rapidly than expected previously. In isolation, this may contribute to pushing up wage growth relative to previous projections.
This also applies to Rogaland. In recent year, non-residential investment has accounted for more than a third of total investment in services and distributive trades. The large investments in this sector in the latter half of the 1990s has led to a high non-residential vacancy rate. Statistics Norway’s new price index for non-residential commercial property shows that in Norway as a whole, prices peaked in the first half of 2001 and have since fallen by over 9 per cent up to the first half of 2003. This situation is likely to curb overall investment growth in the years ahead. In 2004, many companies will probably realise the gains provided by the efficiency measures that have been implemented. Continued brisk growth in household demand is expected to boost investment activity in 2005 and 2006. Petroleum investment will also increase as a result of the Orme Lange project. This is also the case for Rogaland. Our regional network reports that demand is on the increase, the market outlook for the next six months is favourable and corporate profitability has improved considerably. The economic upturn is primarily being reinforced and driven by stronger household demand, although without any substantial increase in investment or employment. The upturn has both broadened out and gained momentum in the past months. All sectors report stable or increasing demand and sales. The market outlook for the next six months in this county is very positive. Optimism does not translate into a stronger willingness to invest, however.