On a number of occasions in recent years I have expressed the view that although there were many factors leading to the Global Financial Crisis and the European Debt Crisis, the root cause of our present predicament is the excessive leverage and indebtedness built up over the past two to three decades in the household, corporate and government sectors in the advanced economies. During this period, the indebtedness of many industrial economies, such as the US, the UK, France and Germany increased steadily from 160% or 1.6 times of GDP to over 320% of GDP. Japan, of course, ranked the highest in this “league table” with over 450% of GDP. This is alarming not just because the stock of debt was rising, but the speed of the increase outpaced the economic or income growth of these economies by 100% over this period. What is even more depressing is that the aggregate public and  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  private sector indebtedness ratios actually increased even further after the financial crisis in most advanced economies except for Germany. 6. The increases were mostly due to a sharp pick up in public debt in most advanced economies after the Global Financial Crisis, as substantial amounts of public funds were deployed by the crisis-hit countries to salvage their financial systems, while the real economies were suffering from falling fiscal revenues with slow growth and rising public spending.
This divergence in the regional focus becomes even more apparent when Asia is viewed as a whole. This is because Switzerland maintains far closer trade ties with Asia’s industrialised countries than the EU does, particularly with the four Asian tiger economies of Hong Kong,  6  The USD value of goods exports to developing and emerging economies (excluding the tiger economies of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan) has grown by an average of 7.5% since 1990, i.e. it has quadrupled. Goods exports to industrialised counties increased by 4.7% annually during the same period, representing an increase by a factor of only 2.5. 7  From 1990 to 2008, the GDP of developing and emerging economies rose by an average of almost 8% (China alone grew by more than 10%). The GDP of the EU15, by contrast, rose by just 1.9% on average (US: 2.7%). 8  The USD value of Swiss goods exports to emerging Asia (excluding the tiger economies) has grown by an average of 9.1% since 1990 (since 2000: 18%). The corresponding growth rates for Germany amounted to 11.4% (since 2000: 17.8%), and for the EU, 9.6% (since 2000: 13.6%). 9  Including intra-EU trade. BIS Review 157/2010  3  Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan. Overall, Switzerland’s share of exports to Asia, including Japan, came to 15% last year – more than twice the EU average. 10 Furthermore, Switzerland is one of the few European countries – alongside Ireland, Sweden and Finland – to run a trade surplus with Asia.