The Bank of Albania has been present in the foreign exchange market throughout 2003 by buying foreign exchange. The foreign exchange activity of the Bank of Albania helped in injecting liquidity in the market and it has smoothed the Lek appreciating tendencies during the year. The forecasts for the main trends and inflation for 2004, suggest that the Bank of Albania should apply a similar policy in 2004, too. Developments in the consumption prices are characterized by low inflationary pressures. Our forecasts show that the inflation target of the Bank of Albania will be met during 2003. In case no shock phenomena emerge, inflation will be under control also for 2004. Besides, the expectations on the economy seem to speak about an inflation level sticking to the present one. Liquidity ratios and structures seem to be near their historic levels, whereas interests rates were characterized by downward trends during 2003. Therefore, the Bank of Albania might reconsider the possibility of a further reduction of interest rates, a possibility consisting in the future performance of the monetary and inflationary indicators. This will be in support of the economic activity or inflation target. Judging from the analysis of actual trends, we could say that interest rates during 2004 will be generally stable or in downward trend. The analysis of monetary indicators for 2004 shows that the Bank of Albania is going to be present in the foreign exchange market so as to impede the further appreciation of Lek.
The sector composition of the three Scandinavian stock exchanges provides an illustration. The Oslo Stock Exchange is heavily dominated by the energy sector, which is practically absent in Stockholm, Copenhagen and the two other Nordic exchanges. Norway has small traditional industries, but the IT and telecom sector is comparable to the other countries’ in relative size. The different sector composition of the stock exchanges also illustrates the potential for diversification by investing across the Nordic countries. The differences in industrial structure imply that international economic developments will affect the Nordic countries differently. Most notably, an oil price shock will have the opposite effect in Norway than in the other Nordic economies. In 2001, the petroleum sector in Norway accounted for around 20 per cent of total investments, 45 per cent of exports, 24 per cent of GDP and 35 per cent of central government revenues. The government net cash flow from the petroleum sector has increased in recent years. Since 1995, the fiscal surplus has been invested in the Government Petroleum Fund. The size of the Fund has increased rapidly in the last few years, and will reach close to 100 per cent of GDP towards the end of this decade, according to estimates from the Ministry of Finance. By investing a substantial part of petroleum revenues abroad, the Government Petroleum Fund limits the effect of the current account surplus on the exchange rate. GDP growth in Norway has been relatively high since 1990, also when excluding the petroleum sector.