These projections are somewhat inferior to those observed in the usual counterparties. In particular, in March the OECD said it expects global growth to grow 3.3% and 3.4% in 2019 and 2020, identical to the latest figures published by Consensus Forecasts and a little below the IMF’s January projections (figure 10). Turning to the terms of trade, most commodities increased their prices after the December Report. In the baseline scenario, prices for copper and oil are expected to be somewhat higher than predicted in December. A copper price of $ per pound is forecast for this year and the next two, which compares with the prices of $ and $ per pound that we assumed in December for 2019 and 2020, respectively. In the case of oil, average Brent-WTI average prices are expected of $ per barrel in 2019 and 2020 (59 dollars for both years, in December) and $ in 2021. With this, and the revisions to the historical numbers, the terms of trade should increase this year by a higher rate than we thought in December, but in terms of levels, they will be similar (figure 11). V. 2019 – 2021 Outlook  Our baseline projection assumes that the boost that the Chilean economy will receive from abroad in the next two years will be milder than it was in the last two. It will be still be positive, however, combining the downward adjustment of world growth and somewhat more favorable financial conditions than were foreseen in December.
But the extent to which continuing constraints on the supply of bank credit are likely to impede the recovery is less clear. On the one hand, banks still face significant challenges, especially in terms of the ease and cost at which they can refinance maturing funding. This is undoubtedly affecting the ability of some small firms to borrow at affordable rates. On the other hand, many companies started this recovery with increased levels of savings and so are in a position to finance increased investment if and when they wish to. And we have seen “creditless” recoveries in the past. For example, the corporate sector in aggregate repaid bank lending in each of the first three years of the 1990s recovery. I’m hopeful – but by no means certain – that strains within the banking system will exert increasingly less drag on the economy going forward. But what of the tailwinds that are pushing against these factors and ensuring that the burgeoning recovery continues? The most significant factor is the highly accommodative stance of monetary policy. As you know, Bank Rate remains at 0.5% and the stock of asset purchases – quantitative easing –  1  This is an annual survey conducted for the Bank by NMG Financial Services Consulting. This year’s survey was conducted between 24 and 30 September 2010 and covered almost 2000 households. Some results from this year’s survey featured in the November 2010 Inflation Report (pages 22–23).