Therefore, I would say that this risk is less acute than at the moment of our previous key rate meeting. Furthermore, investment from the National Wealth Fund and geopolitical risks are still in the focus of our attention. Disinflationary factors are much weaker. A rich harvest might result in a more significant seasonal decrease in food prices. The pandemic situation is still uncertain. The spread of new coronavirus strains worldwide might force countries to introduce new restrictions and disrupt production and supply chains, which in turn might slow down global economic recovery. For Russia, this would involve a decrease in external demand and intensify disinflationary risks, on the one hand. On the other hand, if borders are closed, domestic demand will remain elevated longer, which might become a proinflationary factor. In conclusion, I would like to comment on monetary policy prospects. Beginning from March, we have raised the key rate by a total of 2.25 percentage points. We will assess how our earlier decisions have been influencing monetary conditions, aggregate demand, and inflation. We will also consider how quickly supply-side constraints have been weakening and, accordingly, what level of the key rate is needed to bring inflation back to the target. According to our revised forecast, the average key rate next year will equal 6.0–7.0% per annum. Further on, as inflation expectations go down and inflation decelerates, the key rate will return to its long-term neutral range.
We still estimate this neutral range to be at 5–6%, provided that inflation is close to the Bank of Russia’s target of 4%. Thank you all for your attention. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches