Very high growth in demand for oil is one of the factors behind record high oil prices. In the first half of this year, the price of Brent Blend fluctuated for the most part between USD 45 and USD 55 per barrel. Oil prices rose further this summer, exceeding USD 60 per barrel in August and September. Oil futures have also increased. 4/7  Little excess production capacity in OPEC countries, combined with the prospect of lower production in non-OPEC countries, has probably influenced oil prices. At the same time, there are prospects of continued strong demand growth in important oil-importing countries, such as China and some other emerging economies. Rising or persistently high oil prices may gradually dampen growth among our most important trading partners. The slowdown may occur gradually and may not be particularly marked, but there are now growing concerns that high oil prices may have a stronger impact on inflation and inflation expectations. Monetary policy easing in response to this may then trigger a more pronounced downturn. High oil prices have a different impact in Norway than in oil-importing countries. A rise in oil prices improves our terms of trade. Other countries perceive this as an externally imposed tax. As a result of persistently high oil prices and expectations that oil prices will remain high, investment in the petroleum sector may reach record levels this year. The investment intentions survey for the petroleum sector points to very high growth.
Nothing is settled, and the French presidency will need to deepen and strengthen the main avenues that are currently the subject of global consensus. This is already a huge task. But the greatest responsibility that I see for the future presidency is the correction of large external imbalances at the global level; such a correction is crucial if we are to avoid another major crisis in the future. And in Seoul the G20 explicitly asked the French presidency to work on criteria for measuring these external deficits and surpluses. The financial crisis is over, but its effects can now be felt in terms of the economy. Do you believe that all the necessary lessons have been learned in order to avoid a new global crisis when one sees measures here and there that are perceived as protectionist, in particular in the United States and China? We are in the midst of reflecting at the international level on the lessons to be learned from the crisis. This is a considerable task and it is being undertaken by the whole of the international community, including emerging market economies. It will take some time. For example, in order to make the global financial system much less vulnerable, much more robust, the measures proposed by the Basel Committee and adopted by the G20 will necessarily take time to implement, given their scale. This applies in particular to a very considerable increase in banks’ capital requirements at the global level.