We observe a downward trend of productivity growth – which is considered by some as “secular”, jumping perhaps too hastily to a very long-term conclusion. Furthermore, the ageing of the population means the labour supply is shrinking and potential growth is falling. Thanks to Japan’s G20 Presidency, the challenges posed by demographics are now on the agenda. The ECB’s monetary policy has played an important role in supporting the recovery of the euro area: estimates put the cumulated impact on growth at around 2.5 pp and on inflation at between 1 and 1.5 pp for the period 2014–181. In addition, 11 million jobs have been created since 2013. In September, the ECB introduced a further package of measures. Although it has received less attention, the most innovative part of this package is the strengthening of the state-dependent forward guidance on interest rates. Conditional on inflation developments, this will act as an automatic stabilizer through adjustments in the yield curve and financial conditions. In other words: what does matter is not only the level of our key short term interest rates, which are currently anticipated by markets, reasonably in my view, as close to bottoming out ; it is also and foremost the time horizon of our policy measures Clearly, monetary policy will be all the more effective if it will no longer be the only game in town. You may not realise it, but the euro area has more policy room than others in non-monetary domains, but under-uses it.
François Villeroy de Galhau: Digital innovation - what role can we play as central banks? Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the Singapore Fintech Festival, 8 November 2021. * * * Ladies and Gentlemen, It is always a great pleasure for me to have the opportunity to speak at the Singapore Fintech Festival, and I wish to thank Ravi Menon and the Monetary Authority of Singapore for organizing it. Although I am joining from Paris today, I look forward to coming back to Singapore soon to continue exchanging. Innovation may not be the first thing that comes to mind about central banks. After all, our institutions have been around for quite some time: MAS just turned 50 – and I take this opportunity to congratulate this golden Jubilee –, and Banque de France is more than 2 centuries old. We are more associated with stability than disruption… Yet the blossoming of digital innovation has the potential to transform the financial system in its entirety. We have to embrace these changes, but there are also things that we need to preserve in this process: the stability of the financial system. Innovation and stability can appear as contradictory in the short run; but they are complementary through a common value; a keystone: trust. Trust of the public in money. To be implemented effectively, these dual principles of innovation and stability require a cooperative setting.