And central bank facilities such as the Bank of England’s Term Funding Scheme have offered a cost effective source of funding to support additional lending to the real economy, providing insurance against adverse conditions in bank funding markets. These changes have led many banks to choose simply not to borrow in unsecured markets as the costs increase. Overall, this leaves Libor rates capturing (at best) only a tiny fraction of overall funding costs even in benign market conditions. As transactions become scarce during periods of stress, this reduces yet further. For example, during March and April Libor rates were impacted by liquidity mismatches in money market activity. Money Market Funds, that are important investors in unsecured bank funding markets, experienced large outflows, the so called ‘dash for cash’. This meant Libor linked borrowers were immediately exposed to a sharp increase in rates driven by these more esoteric liquidity factors in addition to any perceived changes in bank credit risk. When the banks that provide the data on which the Libor rates are based can’t reference actual transactions that they have undertaken, they are asked to provide Libor’s administrator with a submission based on transactions in other markets, where they are able. More commonly though, those data aren’t available either, so they have to rely on ‘expert judgement’ which is an estimate of the rates that the firm would expect to pay in those wholesale unsecured funding markets.
The same may undoubtedly be said about the Central Bank. After all, useful and supportive as these institutions may be, they neither can nor should play a leading role. That role can only be performed by the financial companies themselves. Because they rely so heavily on open access to credit markets, it is crucial for them to enjoy the confidence of their creditors. In this respect like many others, credibility is a fragile thing and a very high price can be paid for losing it. Turbulence in global markets is sure to continue. Naturally people try to read the signs and foresee the most important parameters, in order to adapt to them in good time or respond sensibly. Important as it is to keep a close watch on developments and changes in global markets, what matters most of all is to be strong and well-positioned enough to withstand the most unexpected shocks. Global liquidity has been exceptionally abundant in recent years, and has been widely tapped on good terms. The benefits of resourcefulness and bold, quick action can be realised to the full in such circumstances. It is impossible to rule out that such a climate will persist for a long while, but this is by no means certain. And when a change does take place, it may be caused by unexpected circumstances and strike quickly. It is then that caution and prudence prove most effective.