What about “leaning against the wind” (as advocated by, for instance, Borio and White, 2003, and Cecchetti, Genberg and Wadhwani, 2002), the idea that central banks should raise the interest rate more than what appears to be warranted by inflation and resource utilization to counter rapid credit growth and rising asset prices? It has sometimes not been quite clear whether advocates of leaning against the wind mean that credit growth and asset prices should be considered targets and enter the explicit or implicit loss functions alongside inflation and resource utilization, or whether they mean that credit growth and asset prices should still be considered just indicators and are emphasized only because credit growth and asset prices may have potential negative effects on inflation and resource utilization at a longer horizon. In the latter case, leaning against the wind is a way to improve the stability of inflation and resource utilization in the longer run. Then it is completely consistent with flexible inflation targeting. However, in line with the previous discussion, other instruments than interest rates are likely to be much more effective in avoiding excessive credit growth and asset-price booms, since interest rates that are high enough to have a noticeable effect on credit growth and asset prices may have strong negative effects on inflation and resource utilization, and a central bank will probably rarely have sufficient information about the likely beneficial longer-horizon effects on inflation and resource utilization for the trade-off to be worthwhile and motivated.
Simon M Potter: The Federal Reserve’s counterparty framework – past, present and future Remarks by Mr Simon M Potter, Executive Vice President of the Markets Group of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 2015 Roundtable on Treasury Markets and Debt Management, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York City, 19 November 2015. *  *  *  Good evening. I would like to thank the Office of Debt Management for inviting me to speak at this year’s roundtable. This forum provides a valuable opportunity for policymakers, academics, and market participants to discuss issues related to the primary and secondary markets for U.S. Treasury securities. I will focus my remarks tonight on the counterparty framework employed by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which directly affects not only our implementation of monetary policy, but also the underwriting and distribution of Treasury debt issuance. I will begin with an overview of the objectives that underpin the framework, continue by describing how those objectives have influenced the historical development of the primary dealer system, and conclude by looking ahead as the private and official sectors adapt to the evolving structure of the Treasury market.