Hence, the current account deficit has been 13.9 billion USD in 2009, while the ratio of current account deficit to GDP fell from 5.6 percent in 2008 to 2.2 percent in 2009. 8  BIS Review 68/2010  Current Account Balance/GDP* 3 (Percent)  2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 01-I  02-II  03-III  04-IV  06-I  07-II  08-III  09-IV  *Annualized data. Source: CBRT. Distinguished Guests, 24. Uncertainties led by the global crisis adversely affected the credit market in Turkey as well. On the supply side, 2009 is evaluated as a year in which the banks were cautious in lending basically due to risk perceptions. On the demand side, the demand for investment loans has been on a decline because of the slowdown in economic activity. On the other hand, the willingness of firms to restructure their debts emerged as a significant factor that increased credit demand.
This is attributable to hikes in unprocessed food prices driven by supply-side shocks. 12  BIS Review 68/2010  CPI by Subcategories  Contribution to CPI Inflation in 2009  (Annual Percentage Change)  (Percentage Point)  25  Go ods exc l. Food and Energy 29%  2006 2007  20  2008  Foo d 40%  2009 15  Energy 11%  10  Serv ices 20%  5  0 Food  Energy  Goo ds e xcl. Fo od a nd En ergy  Services  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. 35. Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. Despite having followed a volatile course during periods when temporary tax adjustments were effective, core inflation, which is useful for predicting underlying inflation, had a remarkable downtrend consistent with medium-term targets throughout 2009. Core Inflation Indicators and CPI Inflation (Annual Percentage Change)  12 10 8 6 4 2 0  CPI  SCA-H  SCA -I  Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT. 36. Recent data releases indicate that the pace of recovery in economic activity continues. Domestic demand rises gradually as the lagged effects of monetary policy implementations become evident, whereas, uncertainties regarding external demand persist. Accordingly, we expect that after following a volatile course significantly above the target for some period, inflation will be back on a downtrend by the phasing out of temporary effects as of the last quarter of the year and return to target-consistent levels as of early 2011.