Although we fully appreciated the benefits that Switzerland would draw from the creation of the euro in terms of increased transparency and lower transaction costs, we were also quite concerned about the possible risks. Three of these came to mind. First, we feared that the Swiss franc might be in for a bumpy ride. In the past, whenever the dollar was under attack, international investors turned their attention to the German mark and the Swiss franc. Their status as safe-haven currencies meant that at times of turbulences on foreign exchange markets they would move well beyond what economic fundamentals could justify. In fact, the Swiss franc often revealed a tendency to appreciate even more than the German mark, a phenomenon that was generally attributed to the relative narrowness of the Swiss financial markets. Now with the German mark gone, wouldn’t all attention focus almost exclusively on our currency? Would it not mean that in a dollar crisis the franc would have to bear even more of the adjustment than in the past? Even more frightful, what would happen if the euro itself were under attack? The last thing we needed was for the franc to become the first currency in the line of fire, or something like the lightening rod of the international monetary system. A second apprehension that we had was that it might become very difficult in the future to conduct an autonomous monetary policy. Switzerland, together with Liechtenstein, would now be totally surrounded by a single monetary zone.
Second, the uncertainty regarding future consumer behaviour remains. During the quarantine and long self-isolation period, a lot of people abandoned some services, formed new consumption preferences, and changed their mode of life. We do not know whether they will become steady and how they will be influencing price trends. Third, after the boundaries are reopened, it is natural to expect that the demand will shift towards outbound tourism services. As labour migrant flows and logistics chains restore, this will become  a disinflationary factor. Finally, as the restrictions are eased, companies will be able to reduce their costs for the sanitation of their premises and the anti-pandemic protection of their staff and customers, which will ease pressures on businesses’ costs. In conclusion, I would like to comment on monetary policy prospects. The accommodative monetary policy and the Government’s package of anti-crisis measures have been promoting economic revival after the acute phase of the crisis. According to our estimates, we consider that the potential for monetary policy easing has been exhausted. Its further easing could additionally increase proinflationary risks. Nonetheless, monetary policy will remain accommodative on average throughout 2021, supporting the recovery of the Russian economy. The baseline scenario provides for a gradual return to neutral monetary policy. We will assess the timeline and pace for this return taking into account our goal to maintain inflation at our target. 3/3  BIS central bankers' speeches