House prices in Norway have on average risen by 9 per cent annually between 1995 and 2002. House prices have also increased considerably in other countries. A sharp and sustained rise in house prices might contribute to high credit growth even after prices have levelled off. Since only a portion of the housing stock is sold each year, some dwellings will be sold at a higher price than when they were last sold for a long period. This has contributed to sustaining the high level of growth in credit to households in Norway even after the rise in house prices moderated through 2002 and into 2003. It is easiest to sell dwellings in the largest cities and some specific areas are particularly attractive. Residential property is now a fairly liquid and attractive investment. A persistently high rate of increase in house prices may in isolation engender expectations of a further rise and may thus prove to be selfreinforcing for a period. Moreover, there now seems to be a tendency towards investing in property and incurring loans at a more mature age so that younger generations not only inherit dwellings, but debt as well. Both debt and wealth are on the rise for these more mature age groups. Sharp increases in asset prices and debt accumulation may pose a risk to economic stability. With a view to mitigating this risk, it will be appropriate in some situations to apply a somewhat longer-thannormal time horizon than two years to attain the inflation target.
The impact of the interest rate decline on private consumption is likely to be stronger this year than in 2003. It takes time for changes in Norges Bank’s key rate to feed through fully to interest rates for households. Norges Bank’s calculations show that if we look at 2003 and 2004 as a whole, it appears that the impact of interest rate changes will result in an overall reduction of about NOK 15bn in household net interest expenses before tax. However, due to the increase in household net debt, net interest expenses will fall much less than this. The impact of the interest rate decline is also conditioned by the expected duration of the low interest rate level. When the sight deposit rate was reduced last autumn, longer interest rates showed relatively little change. The interest rate reductions in December and January, combined with the decline in inflation, have had a stronger impact on long-term interest rates. This indicates that financial market participants expect interest rates to remain low for a longer period. The fall in the value of the krone over the past year has strengthened Norwegian business and industry. With lower wage growth in Norway and a pick-up global activity, the prospects for Norwegian manufacturing and the business sector are brighter now than they were 12-18 months ago. The business sector is, however, still feeling the effects of a sharp rise in labour costs over a period of several years.