Figure 4  Oil and copper prices (dollars per barrel; dollars per pound)  150  5  120  4  90  Food prices (2) (index, 2009=100) 200  200  180  180  160  160  3  140  140  120  120  60  2  100  100  30  1  80  80  60  60  0  0  40  40  06  07  08  Oil  09  10  Copper (1)  06 07 08 Edible oils Meats Cereals  09  10 Sugar Dairy  (1) At the London Metal Exchange. (2) Based on FAO figures that consider average trading prices in main markets. Source: Bloomberg. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Table 1 World growth and commodities (annual change, percent) Average  Average  2009  2010  2011  2012  90-99  00-07  (e)  (f)  (f)  (f)  World GDP at PPP World GDP at mkt exchange rate Trading partners  2.9 2.4 3.1  4.2 3.2 3.6  -0.6 -2,0 -0.2  4.9 3.7 5.1  3.8 2.9 3.6  4.5 3.7 4.2  United States Eurozone Japan China Asia excl. China, India, and Japan Latin America (excl.
Thus, GDP will grow in the 5.5%–6.5% range in 2011, with a smaller contribution of supplyside sectors – i.e., fishing, mining and hydroelectric generation – than foreseen in the latest IPoM, while the other sectors will converge to trend growth as the monetary and external impulses are normalized (table 2). Prospects for trend growth are similar to September’s, that is, around 5%. In this scenario, which also features improved terms of trade, the current account of the balance of payments will post a surplus of 0.3% of GDP in 2010, contrasting with the deficit forecast in September, owing mainly to better export prices. However, estimations yield that in 2011 the current account will reach a deficit of 1.4% of GDP. Y-o-y headline inflation has remained in the lower zone of the tolerance range, while the core measure CPIX1 is still in negative territory. This low core inflation has been partly offset by increases in the prices of foodstuffs, both perishable and non-perishable and, most recently, by increased fuel prices (figure 8). Since last July, there has been a renewed, markedly ascending trend in food prices in the global market. Given the experience of 2008, it has become again cause for concern for policy-makers in some countries. As shown in a box in our IPoM, in Chile a little more than one percentage point of inflation is due to food prices. Until now, the recovery of margins in the aftermath of the crisis has allowed cushioning the local inflationary effects of world price increases.