The new technologies are making lending more efficient, for example by enhancing the way in which information on consumer behaviour  3/4  and requirements is managed, facilitating new data management processes, or by applying automation processes to loan origination, thus speeding up its management. As these new firms make their entry, a new map will be drawn for this financial sector. The most recent trends highlight the importance of collaboration and strategic agreements between new and established firms, to harness the competitive advantages of each: the new technologies of the new firms and the sector experience and knowledge of the established ones. And here I conclude. It is now time for a toast to celebrate your 60th anniversary, in the hope that the National Association of Specialised Lending Institutions will continue its fruitful work for many years to come. I now pass the floor back to your president, who has the pleasurable task of proposing the toast. 4/4
But an appreciably weaker development of consumption, which was a prominent component of one of the alternative scenarios, seems to have become somewhat less probable. Exchange rate The Riksbank does not target the exchange rate. The monetary policy target is price stability. But the exchange rate does feature as one important factor in the Riksbank’s assessment of inflation in the coming two years. The exchange rate conditions demand in the economy, particularly in the export sector, and also affects inflation directly in the form of import prices. The latter, more immediate effect is, however, transitory and of secondary interest provided it does not influence inflation expectations and thereby price and wage setting behaviour. An assessment of future inflation therefore requires a forecast or judgement of the exchange rate in the coming two years, yet this is a variable that is notoriously difficult to predict and has fluctuated widely for Sweden since 1992. A natural starting point for this is the current exchange rate together with an estimate of what a reasonable long-term level might be in relation to competitiveness, financial saving, etc. The past six months provides an example of how the argument might go. Since October 1996 the krona’s effective exchange rate has weakened by about 7 per cent. Most of this change stems from the appreciation of sterling and the US dollar against currencies in continental Europe (Diagram 6).