Chart 14. Revisions to Oil and Import Price Assumptions Oil Prices (USD/bbl)  Import Prices (2003=100)  Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Source: TurkStat, CBRT. Particularly due to supply-side developments, oil and other commodity prices remained considerably above our assumptions presented in the January Inflation Report (Chart 14). Hence, we revised our assumptions for oil and other commodity prices upwards (Table 2). As illustrated on the slide, these changes in assumptions led to an upward revision of about 50 basis points for the end-2011 inflation forecast and a slightly upward revision for the 2012 inflation forecast. BIS central bankers’ speeches  7  Table 2. Revisions to 2011 Assumptions  Oil (Annual Average, USD)  Prices  Import (Annual Percent Change)  Prices  Food Price (Year-end Percent Change)  Inflation  January 2011  April 2011  95  115  10.9  16.2  7.5  7.5  Another factor affecting 2011 inflation forecasts has been the tariff hike on fabrics and apparels. Although major uncertainties exist about how this development will be reflected on prices, we assumed that this would add to year-end inflation by about 50 basis points while revising our forecasts. Despite the recent benign course of food prices, we preserved our assumption regarding food inflation for end-2011 at 7.5 percent in view of the extreme volatility in unprocessed food prices and rapid increases in agricultural commodity prices (Table 2).
However, for online card payment transactions, due to the necessary significant technical changes, both for payment service providers and merchants operating e-shops, However, the delayed application of security requirements for online card transactions should not adversely affect customers. During the transitional period, payment service providers should recover the value of all unauthorized card payment transactions on the Internet for which no indepth identification of the customer has been applied, and the BNB monitors compliance with this requirement. Although the pandemic has led to some delays in the implementation of migration plans, according to available data, we expect Bulgaria to successfully complete migration by the end of the year within the projected pan-European deadline. Along with the work on the implementation of the current legal framework, many efforts are focused on its further improvement with a view to the emergence of innovative market participants, new technologies, changing business models. In September, the European Commission published the Digital Finance Package, part of which is the “EU Strategy for Retail Payments” and the “Strategy for the Digitalisation of EU Financial Services". The aim of both strategies is to outline the medium-term guidelines and priorities for the development of digitalization in the financial sector. Central to the payment strategy is immediate payments, executed within seconds, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year, called the “new rule” in the strategy. Bulgaria is not lagging behind these trends.