Output is still some 4% below its previous peak and more than 10% below where it would have been if the economy had simply continued growing at its pre-crisis historical trend. There have been few winners over the past few years. In a deep sense, the low level of real interest rates here and in the other advanced economies is a reflection of the impact on the financial crisis. Heightened uncertainty and, for some households, a desire to reduce their indebtedness have resulted in an increased propensity to save. And the same heightened uncertainty has reduced the appetite of businesses to invest and encouraged them to build up cash buffers. Substantial dissaving by the public sector could offset that initially, but there are limits to how long the markets will allow high deficits to be sustained. Fiscal consolidation was unavoidable at some juncture. Given that, the stance of monetary policy needs to be loose in order to sustain demand. If we had chosen to run a substantially tighter monetary policy, then that would only have served to depress activity and raise unemployment even further. By slowing growth, it would also make the task of fiscal consolidation and de-leveraging even more challenging. And by providing a gloomier climate for business, it would also inhibit investment and slow the necessary re-balancing of our economy towards manufacturing and internationally tradable services. Treating serious medical conditions often has unwanted side effects. But, unpleasant as those side effects sometimes are, treatment is invariably better than the alternative.
Gathering market intelligence in a more complex and transparent world  Given its responsibilities for monetary policy, macro-prudential regulation and microprudential supervision, it is quite rightly expected that the Bank’s policy decisions are taken with a detailed understanding of the financial market context in which the Bank operates. Since its inception, the Bank’s market operations have long provided a key input to this understanding, by providing first-hand information from financial institutions. Between the years 1786 and 1989, this was epitomised by the “Senior Broker to the Commissioners for the Reduction of the National Debt.” Clad in a top hat, and invariably with a tightly rolled umbrella (see Figure 4 for an example), the holder of that position was responsible for announcing (in person) changes in the Bank’s minimum lending rate, and at the same time gathering opinion on the state of the gilt market. He was expected to report to the Gilt Edged Division three times a day, providing information about market activity, the quantity of buying and selling, and the gilt maturities and coupons that were in particular demand. He was also responsible for reporting on the mood of investors and advised the Bank on the appetite for stock, institutional cash positions and expectations. 9, 10 Even if top hats are a thing of the past, the essence of Market Intelligence (MI) gathering remains the same today: our staff maintain a regular dialogue with financial market participants to draw on their expert knowledge and perspective of the markets in which they operate.