Andrew G Haldane: Managing global finance as a system Text of the Maxwell Fry Annual Global Finance Lecture, given by Mr Andrew G Haldane, Executive Director and Chief Economist of the Bank of England, at Birmingham University, Birmingham, 29 October 2014. *  *  *  Accompanying charts can be found at the end of the speech. The views are not necessarily those of the Bank of England or the Monetary Policy Committee. I would like to thank Ambrogio Cesa-Bianchi, Edd Denbee, Jeremy Franklin, Carsten Jung, Matt Roberts-Sklar, Stephanie Quiet and Benedict Roth for assistance in preparing the text. I would also like to thank to Rob Elder, Jeremy Harrison, Kristin Forbes, James Smith and Stacy Williams (HSBC FX Quantitative Strategy Team) for insights and comments. It is a great honour to be giving this year’s Maxwell Fry Global Finance Lecture. Max was a tremendous colleague, both during his time here at Birmingham University and as Director of the Centre for Central Banking Studies at the Bank of England. Max also had a rare gift. Through his exceptionally rich academic and public policy career, he was able to integrate the insights from disciplines which all too rarely communicated – monetary theory and central bank practice, advanced and emerging market experience, financial markets dynamics and mainstream macro-economics. The global financial crisis could not have provided a clearer demonstration of the benefits of combining these insights.
60  60  40  40  20  20  0  0 Will drop significantly  Will drop slightly  Will not change  Source: Business survey, Central Bank of Chile. 11  Will increase slightly  Figure 7 National unemployment rates and extended measures (2)  Total employment (1) (contribution to annual change, percentage points)  4  4  Self-employed  Salaried informal 3  Total employment  3 2  (percent)  20  10 Potential rate( 4)  18  2  Unemploy't rate (right axis)  16 1  1  0  0 Salaried formal  -1  -1  9  8  14  7  12  Labor pressure rate 6 (3)  Other -2  -2 10 18 Sep.  19 19  19 May  19 Sep.  20  5 14  15  16  17  18  19  20  (1) First quarter 2020 uses information up until the moving quarter ending in January. Salaried formal comprises dependent workers with access to social security, i.e. health-care and pension fund associated to their employment. Salaried informal are dependent workers with no simultaneous access to social security or is not guaranteed by the employer. Others correspond to employers, and non-remunerated family services or household help. (2) Considers information up to the moving quarter ending in February.