From 2006, growth is expected to slow gradually to, and eventually somewhat below, the level of growth in potential output. In Inflation Report 3/04, the output gap is projected to become clearly positive in the course of 2005 and to remain positive until the end of the projection period. Inflation is projected to show a marked increase over the next year. In the short run, the depreciation of the krone in 2003 will continue to exert upward pressure on imported consumer goods. We also assume that the pronounced fall in prices for some goods and services last autumn will to some extent be reversed. In the somewhat longer term, inflation will show a more gradual rise. Higher resource utilisation in the Norwegian economy will lead to somewhat higher wage growth and will also make it possible for enterprises to increase their operating margins. However, inflation will still be restrained by low external price impulses. The positive contributions from the exchange rate depreciation in 2003 will unwind in the course of spring 2005. The contribution from the exchange rate to inflation will then gradually become slightly negative. There are prospects that inflation will reach the inflation target towards the end of the projection period. There is uncertainty surrounding the projections. The projections are partly based on our analysis of relationships in the economy, the exchange rate assumption and the forward interest rate assumption. We can give some indication of the uncertainty surrounding the projections on the basis of historical deviations between projected and actual price developments.
At stake is our ability to preserve public confidence in the financial system, and seize an unprecedented opportunity to come within striking distance of at least six of the Sustainable Development Goals: no poverty, zero hunger, good health and well-being, quality education, gender equality and reducing inequality. This Conference, themed “Empowering financial consumers in the digital age”, aims to help us untangle and develop sensible responses to the myriad of issues associated with the rapid digitalisation of financial services. Digital financial services adoption in Asia-Pacific The financial services industry has long been at the forefront of the digital revolution, benefitting from efficiency gains, cost savings and wider outreach. For traditional financial institutions, it has also been a matter of survival against an onslaught of highly innovative and nimbler competitors. In recent years, industry players – both traditional and non-traditional – have rapidly scaled up their use of technology to create better customer experiences by making financial products and services more accessible, flexible and competitive. As adoption rates rise, online banking, e-insurance and e-payments are quickly approaching a tipping point at which they will eclipse physical branches, ATMs and cash as conduits for financial transactions. In some markets, this is already a reality. It has been reported that nearly two-thirds of consumers in the Asia-Pacific region are active fintech users. The adoption rates are even higher in trailblazer markets such as China and India, where the share of active fintech users is estimated to be about 87%.