The fact that forecasters revise their assessments is not at all strange, as new information is received all the time. This indicates that as the conditions for the real economy change and new information is received the forecasts for the repo rate path need to be adjusted. There is nothing particularly dramatic about this. It applies to all market agents, to the major banks, to the Ministry of Finance and also to us at the Riksbank. The great uncertainty factor means that all forecasters should be humble, but this should not prevent them from making forecasts. I would therefore like to emphasise once again that the repo rate path we present in the Monetary Policy Report is a forecast and not a promise. The Riksbank cannot undertake, regardless of what  BIS Review 62/2007  3  happens in the economy, to follow the path published. The interest rate path is quite simply the best assessment we can make at a given point in time, given the information that is then available. New information may change the picture of the economy and then the Executive Board will have to rethink how we set the repo rate. The reason why we have chosen to publish our interest rate forecast despite the uncertainty over the future is largely because we believe this is the best way of explaining our thoughts on monetary policy. It also makes it easier for us to justify forecasts and interest rate decisions and to outline alternative scenarios for the repo rate.
We have now concluded that there is not normally reason to indicate prior to the monetary policy meetings in speeches and press releases how our views of the repo rate path have changed. Our assessment is that it is enough to signal our intentions clearly in connection with the seven monetary policy meetings held every year. In connection with three of these meetings we will publish our own forecast for the future repo rate, and our Monetary Policy Report will show clearly why we have chosen this particular path. On the other four occasions we will make a qualitative assessment of how the most recently published interest rate forecast relates to the new information received. Even if the interest rate path forecast is only a forecast and not a promise, a central bank can hardly be clearer than this with regard to its views on economic developments and the consequences for the interest rate. There may also in exceptional cases be justification for some signalling between two monetary policy meetings. If, for instance, something occurs to radically alter the economic situation, while there is a long time until the next meeting, it may be necessary to make a comment in order to avoid the risk of unnecessary uncertainty in the financial markets. It should then be clear whether the entire Executive Board supports this view or whether it is the opinion of an individual member.