I am optimistic that Europe will come out of the crisis stronger and more robust. But that won’t be true of the euro area’s growth potential, will it? Many economists now think that will be much lower. We don’t traditionally publish our estimate of that. However, we must work on the assumption that the potential growth rate has slowed down – owing to the lower use of labour and, especially, the fall off in investment. The long-term development is still unclear. If the crisis is used to push through the necessary reforms, potential growth may accelerate. But we also need to consider the rapid ageing of the population, which will depress potential growth. Let’s now look at the current situation. The ECB is more sceptical than many economists – many would even say “pessimistic” – when it comes to the economic outlook. What is that assessment based on? I wouldn’t say that we are pessimistic. We are currently seeing the confirmation of what we have been expecting since December: the euro area is recovering very slowly in the course of the year, and that improvement will continue next year. However, there is no reason for our growth forecasts to go shooting up, and that is why we remain cautious. And that is why the ECB is continuing to try to use its forward guidance to shield the euro area economy from rising market interest rates in the event that the ultra-loose monetary policy in the United States comes to an end?
Our forward guidance comprises two elements: it aims to further clarify our views regarding the economic situation and the manner in which we intend to react to it. It is important to note that the United States and the euro area are at completely different stages of the economic cycle. Here in the euro area economy, an imminent change in the direction of monetary policy would certainly come far too early. But how realistic is decoupling from the United States? The markets, at any rate, don’t seem to have all that much faith in that prospect, if you look at the rising money market rates. I think it’s a little early to be judging that. Overall, we believe that we’ve been successful in reducing the volatility of rates. We’ve been moderately successful as regards the actual level of interest rates. Rates have risen on account of positive economic data. It remains to be seen how the situation will develop in the likely presence of further cautiously positive data. And if things do not go according to plan, will the ECB reduce its key interest rates again or conduct new LTROs? We will continue to monitor the situation. We haven’t said any more than that. Sometimes you have to keep calm, rather than coming up with something new every month. Why is the ECB not publishing inflation projections beyond 2014?