In turn, the budgetary consolidation measures and the cyclical improvement in the economy have brought about a decline in the public spending/GDP ratio, largely owing to the improvement in spending once interest on debt is discounted. Interest payments as a proportion of GDP held at a similar level to 2013, despite the significant decline in the Treasury’s financing costs, owing to the increase in public debt. The public debt/GDP ratio rose in 2014 to 97.7%, thereby meeting forecasts. The latest Updated Stability Programme (which confirms the deficit targets to 2017) presages a continuing increase in debt this year to 98.9% of GDP, with a reduction commencing in 2016, although the better growth now projected for 2015 may improve these projections. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Private-sector deleveraging Secondly, there has been headway in correcting private-sector indebtedness. Spanish household debt stood at end-2014 at 71% of GDP, 10 pp above the euro area average, when in 2010 we were 20 pp above it; non-financial corporations’ debt stood at the end of last year at 92% of GDP, 8 pp above the euro area average, when in 2010 the gap was 35 pp. In the coming years, the nominal growth of the economy will make for a readier adjustment and will ease the pressure still exerted by past debts on new financing flows. Indeed, new lending was seen to expand in 2014, and this has continued into the opening months of 2015.
Thus, now more-than-ever, macro-surveillance process, early warning models, stresstesting, ever more vigilant risk-based supervision, and strong internal risk management by financial institutions will be instruments crucial for safeguarding our financial stability. In closing this introduction, I am certain that this seminar will be extremely useful and provide an important opportunity for building a close network amongst supervisors in SEACEN, as well as for fostering a closer cooperation between regulators in our region and the US-OCC. So, without further ado, let me declare the second SEACEN-OCC Advanced Seminar on Quantitative Techniques for Macro Surveillance and Determining Resilience of the Banking Sector open, and wish you all every success in this seminar, as well as in your career, and have a pleasant stay in Thailand. Thank you. 2  BIS Review 98/2007