Both borrowers and lenders need to be careful not to over-stretch themselves. In line with the recent FPC statement, we will be keeping a very close eye on developments, and the Bank has a range of tools that can be used in mitigation of those risks. Stage 4: the flow of credit Annual growth in the stock of lending to households and businesses has remained close to zero since mid-2012, similar to rates seen in the run-up to the launch of the FLS. But it is important to bear in mind that prior to the announcement of the FLS, the Bank judged that UK bank lending was more likely to decline than increase over the following eighteen months. The profile of lending seen to date has been broadly in line with our original expectations: the trend in household net lending has been somewhat stronger than expected before the launch of the FLS and net lending to businesses has been perhaps a little weaker. We were also conscious that the stock of credit depends on both supply and demand. We were sure that the FLS would shift supply but the demand effects were always less certain. The price elasticity for firms in particular is likely to be low. It is possible at the margin that some firms will be better able to repay or refinance loans if their borrowing costs are a bit lower, but this effect is probably small relative to the importance of expected demand for a firm’s products.
Banks have improved their capital positions and profitability since the euro area crisis, and the stock of non-performing loans continues to decline at a moderate pace. But further improvements are needed in parts of the banking sector if banks are to achieve sustainable rates of return. In particular, overcapacity and cost inefficiencies weigh on many banks’ long-term profitability prospects. The better performance of some banks within the euro area, and in jurisdictions facing similar economic and financial conditions, illustrates the importance of addressing structural issues. The current interest rate environment has various implications for the resilience of the banking sector. Banks have benefited, and will continue to benefit, from the lower credit risk for borrowers, and from the higher asset valuations associated with lower interest rates and 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  better macroeconomic outcomes. This has helped support bank profitability across the euro area since the deposit facility rate turned negative in 2014. However, the negative interest rate policy also entails costs for banks, and these could increase the longer negative rates are in place, the lower policy rates are set and the larger the amount of excess liquidity held by banks. These vulnerabilities could crystallize if economic growth is much weaker than expected, or if weak growth persists for longer than expected. We thus welcome the measures taken by the banking sector in recent years to improve resilience, and support efforts to further strengthen resilience while conditions are benign.