This assessment derives from studies conducted by the Eurosystem but also from the reports published by “ECB Watchers”, with whom, incidentally, the ECB has regular contact, notably in the context of annual conferences. Figures 5 and 6 show for example that on average, the Eurosystem’s monetary policy decisions were anticipated by financial markets, whatever their orientation, at least two weeks in advance, and fully factored in at least a week before. A comparison with the Fed, moreover, does not reveal significant differences between the two institutions with regard to the ability of markets to anticipate the monetary policy decisions of the two institutions. This point to the transparency of the single monetary policy. In particular, the fact that the ECB has chosen channels other than the publication of minutes of the meetings of the Governing Council has not prevented it from reaching a high level of predictability. As regards the frequency, since the inception of the euro in 1999, the Eurosystem has changed its policy rates 16 times (8 cuts, 8 hikes), which is on average close to the usual average frequency of interest rate changes 1 However, compared to the Federal Reserve, in particular since 2001, the frequency of the changes is by far lower. Does this necessarily imply that the Eurosystem does not move enough or too low?
Benjamin Franklin is the very example of what was known at the time as an “honest man”. Benjamin Franklin showed a marked interest in Europe from a very early age. He started learning French, Italian and Spanish (in addition to Latin) in 1733. He journeyed abroad and lived both in France and England. I would like to stress his interest in France by pointing out that he was elected Associé Etranger of the French Academy in 1772 and became Plenipotentiary Minister in Paris in 1779. When referring to Benjamin Franklin, one often has in mind the great inventor, the philosopher, the essayist or the polemicist but one often forgets to mention that he also published a number of economic essays and studies. It is worth mentioning the book “Way to Wealth”, which some people consider as “the first American book on personal finance” or as “the best and the wisest money book ever written… ”. As you can probably imagine, Benjamin Franklin’s philosophy has crossed the Atlantic and still guides decision-makers today, including at the European Central Bank. In that regard, I would like to touch on a few ideas drawn from his autobiography. I need not remind you of his great fondness for quotations, especially in Poor Richard’s Almanack. In his autobiography, Benjamin Franklin defined a number of virtues that he believed to be cardinal. They included temperance, silence, order, resolution, frugality, industry, sincerity, justice, etc. I find his interpretation of these terms interesting.