a Deviation in the level of cumulative GDP in 5 years, the time considered necessary to reach the new "long term". The two simulations assume a "no-deal" that includes a long-term scenario under WTO rules. FORECASTS FOR THE SPANISH ECONOMY: MAIN RISKS. SURPRISES ON THE DOWNSIDE FOR INFLATION OIL PRICES  OVERALL INFLATION  3  CHART 6  %  Projections  70  Dollars/barrel  Projections  65 2  60 55  1  50 0  45 40  -1  35 -2 2013  2014  2015  2016  LATEST PUBLISHED PROJECTIONS  2017  2018  PROVISIONAL UPDATE  2019  30 2016  2017  2018  2019  ASSUMPTIONS USED IN LATEST PUBLISHED PROJECTIONS UPDATED PROJECTIONS  SOURCES: ECB, INE, Reuters and Banco de España. which Spanish general government has been immersed since 2009, as part of the “corrective arm” of the EU’s Stability and Growth Pact. Specifically, the budget deficit is expected to be below 3% of GDP both in 2018 and 2019. 1.3  Main risks and elements of vulnerability  The macroeconomic and financial scenario I have just sketched, which prolongs the expansionary phase of the Spanish economy, is, however, subject to certain downside risks. It should also be added that these risks have tended to increase recently and are being reflected in sharper downward revisions of analysts’ opinions on the outlook for the global economy in 2019 (see left-hand panel of Chart 5).
The survey revealed that 90% of the respondents recognize the need for digital innovation in the financial sector and 72% are already in the process of implementing some form of  2/3  BIS - Central bankers' speeches  digital transformation. There is an agreement among respondents that regulation can sometimes be a barrier for a swifter innovation. To eliminate regulatory barriers, a new Law on Payment Systems has been prepared and is currently undergoing a parliamentary procedure. We have already drafted the First National FinTech Strategy, which will soon be shared with other stakeholders. Tomorrow, under our initiative, all financial regulators will sign a Memorandum for setting up a FinTech Committee with a view of promoting digitalization in the financial sector. To recap, there are no doubts that faster and inclusive income convergence calls for strengthened efforts to lift the growth potential, and perhaps even more importantly to lift the quality of growth. In this context, we would like to express our gratitude to EBRD for supporting us for almost three decades with more than EUR 2 billion total investment to date aimed at supporting competitiveness, trade integration and green transition. Despite the current headwinds which put economic growth at risk and require immediate policy focus, we should not lose sight of a longer term structural agenda, including digitalization. As Andy Rooney said, "Everyone wants to live on top of the mountain, but all the happiness and growth occurs while you're climbing it." So, let us keep climbing. Thank you.