But adaptation requires reflection and caution However, this would not be an easy task. Firstly, the central bank is of course unable to change its behaviour so much that doubts arise as to whether it is actually trying to maintain low and stable inflation. What is known as the nominal anchor, that is the landmark for pricesetting and wage formation, may then be loosened. This would mean losing all we have achieved over the past two or three decades. But even if nothing this dramatic happened, sufficiently large changes in the central bank’s behaviour might nevertheless have undesired consequences. The flatter Phillips curve could reasonably be due to economic agents, such as the social partners, having adjusted their behaviour to how they believe the central bank will act. If the central bank changes its behaviour too much, this may have the consequence that economic agents begin to act differently, too. We will then once again have a new playing field, where the Phillips curve may once again have become steeper.7 Even with these reservations, I believe that it is generally valuable for the central bank to constantly ask itself how it can best ensure that it deserves its independence. What I mean by this, of course, is not that it should anxiously ask its principal what to do – that would mean its independence was lost.
In our latest forecasts, however, none of these factors has suggested that there will be any significant changes in the exchange rate for the krona in the period ahead. 25 The krona does not need to be strengthened, but Sweden is still affected by the global imbalances Despite the fact that Sweden has had a substantial current account surplus for 15 years there is nothing to suggest that this surplus must become a deficit within the near future to  24  See for example Lane and Milesi-Ferretti, 2002. 25  For a more detailed discussion of the long-term development of the krona see Lagerwall and Nessén, 2009. 12  BIS central bankers’ speeches  prevent Sweden from accumulating a large net claim in relation to the rest of the world. Nor is there anything to suggest that the Swedish krona should appreciate in real terms to enable a shift in the current account from a surplus to a deficit. As Sweden, as far as we can see, does not have any significant positive net external position, there is nothing to say that the real exchange rate needs to be strengthened for reasons relating to the net position. A general reduction in the global imbalances could, however, have consequences for Sweden.