Figures for 2010 and 2011 as well as the March forecast, with the national accounts with 2008 as the base year, using chained indexes. Sources: Central Bank of Chile based on a sample of investment banks, Consensus Forecasts, the IMF and statistics bureaus of respective country or region. Table 2 Economic growth and current account (*) (annual change, percent) 2012 (f) Sep.11 Report  GDP  Dec.11 Report  6.25-6.75  2013 (f) Sep.11 Report  Mar.12 Report  6.2  6.0  Dec.11 Report  4.25-5.25  Mar.12 Report  3.75-4.75  4.0-5.0  Domestic demand  9.1  9.5  9.4  4.5  3.7  5.3  Domestic demand (w/o inventory change)  9.7  10.2  10.3  5.4  4.8  5.8  Gross fixed capital formation  14.4  16.9  17.6  7.1  5.8  8.9  Total consumption  8.2  8.1  7.9  4.9  4.5  4.8  Goods and services exports  6.5  7.4  4.6  5.0  3.7  3.8  Goods and services imports  12.0  14.3  14.4  4.6  3.0  5.9  Current account (% of GDP)  -1.0  -1.5  -1.3  -2.1  -3.3  -3.4  (f) Forecast. (*) September and December forecasts were done with national accounts with 2003 as the base year. Figures for 2010 and 2011 as well as the March forecast, with the national accounts with 2008 as the base year, using chained indexes.
It also raises projections for the copper price to averages of $ and $ per pound this year and next. This translates into better terms of trade than previously thought (table 1). Greater appetite for risk has also fostered a resumption of capital inflows to emerging economies. Facing reduced tensions, many emerging economies’ central banks have suspended their processes of enhanced monetary stimulus they began in the second half of 2011. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  In Chile, the external financial turbulence has had limited impact, and a number of the signs of spill-over that were perceived in late 2011 have reverted, at least partially. Money market frictions have eased. Stock markets and the exchange rate have returned to values from before the resurgence of international financial tensions, although corporate risk premiums are now higher than they were in mid-2011. At the statistical cutoff date of this Report, the peso had appreciated nearly 6% against the dollar, since the closing of December’s Report. Considering the current level of the nominal exchange rate and the parities prevailing at the closure of this Report, the real exchange rate (RER) is estimated to be within the range consistent with its long-term fundamentals. On the other hand, domestic output and demand have grown faster than forecast in December. After losing strength in the third quarter of 2011 – which was the information at hand at the closing of the December Report – output figures of the fourth quarter accelerated.