The latest economic data and survey information suggest tentative signs of a stabilisation at very low levels, after a first quarter which was significantly weaker than expected. The world economy, including the euro area, is still undergoing a severe downturn, with the prospect of both external and domestic demand remaining very weak over 2009 before gradually recovering in the course of 2010. This assessment incorporates a number of adverse developments which are likely to materialise over the coming months, such as a further deterioration in labour markets. At the same time, available indicators of inflation expectations over the medium to longer term remain firmly anchored in line with the Governing Council’s aim of keeping inflation rates at levels below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. A cross-check with the outcome of the monetary analysis confirms that inflationary pressure has been diminishing, as money and credit growth have further decelerated in recent months. Against the background of these developments, after today’s decisions we expect price stability to be maintained over the medium term, thereby supporting the purchasing power of euro area households. All in all, since the intensification of the financial crisis in September 2008, the Eurosystem has taken a series of measures that are unprecedented in nature, scope and timing. As a consequence, we have observed a clear decline in key money market interest rates that euro area banks typically use as benchmarks to reset floating rate loans and price new short-term loans.
This very significant advance in terms of financial regulation should not obscure the progress that still needs to be made regarding the work underway, especially in the areas of market infrastructures (including for commodity markets), tighter regulation of activities included under the designation the “shadow banking system” and the behaviour of market players themselves. Once again, I underscore our collective responsibility, which is to ensure that all of the G-20 countries and, more widely, the international community as a whole apply international standards. Today’s discussions will be divided into four sessions. The first, chaired by Axel Weber, will examine the notion of disequilibrium after the crisis and will allow us to discuss the unpredictable evolution of global imbalances in the medium term, in the light of different assumptions concerning economic growth and savings trends in the different zones. Mario Draghi has agreed to chair the second session that will focus on questions related to supervision and coordination. As I have already said, the current context is characterised by the reform of global governance and regulation, a process given impetus by the G-20. Therefore, at this stage, it seems appropriate to explore topics such as the evolution of the role of international financial institutions and the accomplishments and future progress in harmonising global financial regulations. The third session, chaired by Michel Camdessus, should help us to gain further insight on what could, or should, be the role of central banks in a post-crisis environment.