As that uncertainty dissipated and households began to feel more confident about the outlook, so the saving rate fell back (Chart 1). There is probably some scope for it to fall a little further, but continued firm consumption growth really depends on us seeing a pickup in household income growth, of which I will say more shortly. There is more scope for housing investment to continue driving growth. Housing starts and the level of housing transactions are still respectively around 25% and 10% below their averages during the pre-crisis decade (Chart 2). But the supply of new housing is not as elastic as one would like, because of planning restrictions and the like. Consequently there is a risk that increased demand for housing ends up mainly in higher house prices rather than more houses. In turn, if associated with excessive expansion in mortgage lending, that may create future financial stability risks. For that reason, the Bank’s Financial Policy Committee, which is charged with maintaining the overall stability of the financial system, is keeping a beady eye on the housing market. BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  For the recovery to be both sustained and sustainable, however, we really want to see three things happen. First, business investment needs to pick up the baton in supporting demand growth. Second, we need to see a revival in productivity growth, which in turn would sustain both higher real wages and higher profits, thus supporting continued household and business spending growth.
Page 15 sur 14 i  Delors J., Speech on the occasion of the opening of the academic year at the College of Europe, “50 ans Collège d’Europe”, September 1999 ii European Commission, Eurobarometer 93, October 2020 iii De Tocqueville A., Democracy in America, 1840 iv Blanchard O., “In defense of concerns over the $ trillion relief plan”, Peterson Institute for International Economics, February 2021 v Gordon R. J., “Is U.S. Economic Growth Over? Faltering Innovation Confronts the Six Headwinds”, National Bureau of Economic Research, August 2012 vi PatentSight vii Hanushek E. A. and Woessmann L., “The Economics of International Differences in Educational Achievement”, Handbooks in Economics, Vol. 3, 2011 viii Spain and Italy have the lowest PIAAC scores (respectively 252 and 250) in terms of adult literacy with France third but slightly above (262) vs. Netherlands (284), Norway (278) and Sweden (279). France has a 22% share of low-skilled workers, Spain and Italy around 27%, Sweden and Norway around 13%. Share of high-skilled workers: France 8 %, Spain 5 %, Italy 3 %, Sweden 16 %, Norway 14 %. Based on PIAAC 2012 and OECD 2013. ix The share of high-skilled adults among the population in the Netherlands, or in Finland, is more than twice as large as in France (17% and 19% respectively vs. 8% in France).