According to the current outlooks, the economy should stabilise in the second half of this year and it may start growing again either at the end of 2009 or at the beginning of 2010. However, all forecasts continue to be insecure. If our main trading partners' growth recovered faster, it would also give impetus to Estonia's economic activity, whereas a protracted global economic downswing would put a drag on rekindling growth here. Recent days' messages from the world have been slightly more optimistic after several months of bad news. It is thought the large support packages have finally started to render results. This requires even more urgently that countries be ready to take stapes to ensure long-term growth potential. It has happened before in the world that economic crises have been defeated by creating assumptions for a new crisis. Thank you for your attention! BIS Review 89/2009  5
In the US, the burden has been much more concentrated on those who have lost, and not regained, work. And in contrast to the UK, American companies have increased their profits significantly as a share of national income. The euro area What makes the UK performance even more remarkable is that we have faced the added challenge of rebuilding competitiveness. In the run-up to the crisis, the UK’s economy had become increasingly imbalanced. When the crisis hit, sterling fell by a quarter. Prices of imported goods rose sharply and that fed through to higher inflation. The squeeze on real incomes was pronounced. And yet there were relatively few calls for higher wages to compensate. As a result of that painful adjustment, the UK is more competitive. And if the world economy returns to a surer footing, there is a real prospect that the UK can properly rebalance its economy. 5  4  Outturns for unemployment have remained some way below what would have been expected given the past relationship between changes in unemployment and growth (Okun’s law). Year-on-year increases in unemployment during 2008-9, for example, remained around 1ppt below a simple Okun relationship based on data since the early 1970s. That is in stark contrast to the experience of the US in that period, where unemployment outturns were some way above past Okun’s law relationships. 5  See Carney, M (2014), Speech at the Mansion House, June; and Broadbent, B (2014), “The balance of growth”, Speech at the London School of Economics, January.