If you collapse the range of alternatives to the worst possible outcome – now you know for sure that a project isn’t worth pursuing – that would obviously hit investment, 7  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Pages/speeches/default.aspx  7  despite the drop in uncertainty. If it keeps open the possibility of better outcomes a lack of clarity may sometimes be worth putting up with. Monetary policy and DB pension schemes  Let me turn now to my second topic, the interaction between low bond yields, QE and the financial position of defined benefit (DB) pension schemes. These funds do exactly what they say on the tin: they promise their beneficiaries a fixed future payout, not unlike the coupon on a government bond. That’s why they’re obliged to discount these liabilities by the longer-term bond yield. That, in turn, means the present-value cost of those liabilities goes up when the bond yield falls. And because easier monetary policy tends in the first instance to do precisely that – to depress yields – central banks have been criticised in recent years for worsening the financial position of such funds. Since its decision to ease monetary policy in August, both by lowering Bank Rate and expanding its asset purchases, the MPC has again encountered this concern. Just as this point isn’t new, nor is what I’ll say in response.
The pre-positioning drive has gathered pace in the last year or so – there is now over £ of collateral pre-positioned for use in the DWF. After applying appropriate haircuts to each piece of collateral pre-positioned, this means the Bank could, subject to solvency and viability assessments and repayment plans, lend around £ in the DWF without the complications of further detailed collateral checks. 11 Although not a substitute for firms  9  Further details on how central banks can use their money market operations to implement monetary policy and provide liquidity support to banks are set out in Clews, Salmon and Weeken (2010), “The Bank’s money market framework”, available in the Bank’s Winter 2010 Quarterly Bulletin. 10  Further details are available at http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/markets/marketnotice100719.pdf. 11  That is around 10% of annual nominal UK GDP in 2011 – slightly higher than that in the United States, where the lendable value of collateral pledged by all depository institutions in the Discount Window (around $ in January 2012) is equivalent to around 8.5% of nominal US GDP in 2011. BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  building up their own holdings of high quality liquid assets to a more satisfactory level, that represents a very substantial “war chest” of potential liquidity in the event of significant adverse shocks. There is limited cost to the counterparty of pre-positioning, as collateral can be withdrawn on demand for use in other operations or market transactions.