SPEECH  Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: Past, Present, and Future May 19, 2023 John C. Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer Remarks at the Thomas Laubach Research Conference, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC As prepared for delivery  Thank you, Trevor. And good morning, everyone. It is a special privilege to participate in this conference honoring my dear friend, colleague, and co-author, Thomas Laubach. Many of you knew Thomas personally, and all of you knew him through his work. He was a brilliant economist, trusted colleague, and an inspiring leader. We miss Thomas' dedication, good cheer, and sense of humor, and his impact on everyone he touched endures. Our collaboration started in the fall of 2000 with a shared interest in figuring out how to measure the elusive natural rate of interest, otherwise known as r-star. At the time, neither of us had any idea that our research on this topic would continue for 20 years. Kathryn Holston and I are carrying on this work. It's one of the many ways we can honor Thomas and his memory. Because of the unprecedented, pandemic-related shocks to the economy, we paused our regular publication of r-star estimates in late 2020. This conference is the perfect venue to announce that we are resuming them. But first, I want to take some time to share r-star's origin story, which is how I came to know Thomas.
In a comparison with a number of other inflation-targeting countries, it is evident that Swedish inflation was closest to the target level last year, measured as an annual average, and that it was fairly average with regard to deviations from the target level. As monetary policy’s effect on inflation has a time lag, the outcome of inflation in 2003 is largely a result of the monetary policy conducted in 2001 and 2002. Let me therefore report some of our considerations in the light of the developments and forecasts made then. At the beginning of 2001 the repo rate was 4 per cent. During the spring there was a severe depreciation of the krona. Despite the fact that economic activity in Sweden and abroad was in a weakening phase, domestic resource utilisation was at a high level, while inflation had increased significantly during the spring and exceeded the upper tolerance limit. Inflation expectations had also begun to rise. Given this, we raised the repo rate in summer 2001. Economic developments and monetary policy considerations in Sweden differed from those in many other countries, where monetary policy in many cases had begun to be more expansionary. The decision to raise the interest rate in July 2001 was not self-evident. Three Executive Board members entered reservations against the decision, with reference to the weakening economic activity. The terrorist actions in September 2001 caused us to cut the rate by half a percentage point. Our assessment was that confidence among both households and firms would deteriorate.