This occurred because the fiscal policy during the pre-crisis boom had been strongly procyclical, so that the economic advance of over 9 percent in 2008 was followed by sharp falls in the next two years: –5.5 percent in 2009 and –3.9 percent in 2010. The lesson learned here  is that there is no viable alternative to a predictable and coherent mix of economic policies and structural reforms. Let me stress that this mix should remain in place even when facing the challenges of election years, and there are several election rounds in Romania in 2019 and 2020. The fourth lesson could deal with the issue of whether joining the euro area ensures faster growth or not. I attended the celebrations marking the 10th anniversary of euro adoption in Slovenia and Slovakia. While in the latter country euro area membership is considered a success story, in Slovenia it is viewed as a necessary, yet painful, step. During my conversation with a Slovenian expert, I argued that the difficulties faced after euro adoption were the consequence of not cleaning up banks’ balance sheets before euro area entry. He replied that the people were not interested in these details, as what they cared about most was the standard of living, which declined after the euro changeover.
Overall, the conditions for recovery look favorable enough and there is general optimism that the Thai economy looks set on a continuous growth path. That said, a key weak pocket in the current recovery process appears to be the domestic investment climate but even that should get better as the external environment is improving. BIS Review 94/2010  1  Unfortunately, the political unrest during April–May had somewhat set back the recovery process. Most activities slowed down during May on a month on month basis. The tourism sector, in particular, was hit hard. In May, the number of foreign tourist arrivals in Thailand declined by 11.8 percent year-on-year. Correspondingly, hotel occupancy rate fell to 34.9 percent, mainly from a significant drop in Bangkok and the central region. Nevertheless, the impact was rather confined. The occupancy rate in the southern region remained intact at 45.5 percent, higher than the last 5-year average of 42.9 percent. On the whole, we expect that the second quarter GDP growth would be less buoyant than that of the first quarter. Nevertheless, economic data during April–May came out better than expected, reflecting the ongoing momentum of the Thai economic recovery led by exports. In fact, the export value in May continued to expand by 42.5 percent year-on-year in line with favorable expansions in all export categories and markets. Ladies and Gentlemen, Despite headwind from both external and domestic factors, it is now important to embark on policy normalization, both fiscal and monetary policies.