It goes without saying that it is not only a quantitative issue and that at the same time the efficiency of research and development in terms of industrialisation  12  See P. Hartmann, F. Heider, E. Papaioannou and M. Lo Duca (2007), “The role of financial markets and innovation for productivity and growth in Europe”, ECB Occasional Paper forthcoming. 13  Some authors have calculated that if the average size of capital markets in the EU was bigger - in the US for instance this size is around 450% of GDP instead of 220% in the EU (based on an overall indicator measuring total financing in the economy by aggregating bank credit to the private sector, stock market capitalisation and the outstanding amount of domestic debt securities issued by the private sector) - then annual GDP per capita growth in the EU could be positively influenced (see G. Favara (2006), “An empirical reassessment of the relationship between finance and growth”, mimeo). 14  See the European Commission’s Green Paper entitled “Entrepreneurship in Europe”, 21.01.2003. 6  BIS Review 82/2007  is crucial. In the longer term, GDP could be up by 4.2% in 2015 and 7.0% in 2020, equivalent to an additional growth rate of nearly 0.5% per year 15 . Finally, to make these measures most effective, they need to be accompanied by efforts to improve the labour force’s level of education and expertise.
Times will become more demanding for the clusters of oil suppliers in Sørlandet, Nord-Jæren, Haugalandet and Stord and for manufacturing in Kongsberg, Grenland, Helgeland, Salten and Ofoten. 8  16  The historical figures are based on trend calculations. The figures for these years are therefore based on economic developments later in the 1990s. The degree of tightening may therefore also appear greater in retrospect. BIS Review 15/2010  Fortunately, manufacturing districts have shown the ability to adapt. Research shows that the degree of geographical and occupational mobility is high for the Norwegian labour force. Few people remain permanently outside the labour force after a period of restructuring. 9 But the communities are small and vulnerable and may disappear if the industry structure becomes too narrow. And as mentioned, the most important, perhaps the only, instrument available to the authorities in addressing this challenge is to restrain petroleum revenue spending in the Norwegian economy. The management of petroleum revenues It took a generation from the time the first oil field was discovered in the North Sea until the government began to set aside economic rent. The Government Petroleum Fund was established in 1990 and the first transfer to the wealth fund was made in 1996. Each year since that time, as a savings plan, the government has transferred a portion of current income from petroleum activities as deposits in the fund. Today, the value of the fund is around NOK 2.6 trillion, or slightly higher than annual GDP in Norway.