If we include retirement due to disability, the average retirement age is only 60.9 The number of persons on benefits in the working age population has shown a marked rise. Up to the beginning of the 1990s, there were small differences between Norway and its neighbours. Over the past decade, however, the increase has been clearly strongest in Norway. There are two sides to the conclusion as to the question of Dutch disease. On the positive side, we have avoided dramatic changes in industry structure, and we use our resources fairly efficiently. We have managed to insulate the Norwegian economy from oil market fluctuations and gradually managed to keep macroeconomic developments on a fairly steady course. On the negative side, there are signs that labour supply over a life-cycle is falling faster in Norway than in other countries. This may indicate that, with our current income level, we give high priority to increasing our leisure time. However, it may also indicate that we do not, as individuals, pay the true economic costs of leisure time and early retirement. Pension rules, benefits and taxes contribute to this. Similarly, enterprises are perhaps being offered the wrong incentives. On balance, the picture is still fairly positive: so far, petroleum wealth has not led to developments in the mainland economy that are negative in relation to other Nordic countries. However, it must be stressed that it is too early to draw a conclusion; there will probably be a substantial increase in petroleum revenue spending ahead.
Thus, by 2017 a contraction of this component of gross fixed capital formation is expected, while the machinery and equipment component is slightly adjusted upwards, reflecting the actual data to date and also the steady growth in imports of capital goods excluding non-regular transportation. Externally, exports are forecast to contract this year as a result of some supply-side shocks in manufacturing and mining downtime in the first half of the year, which has already been reflected in lower shipments from the sector. However, as these factors are estimated to be transitory, by 2018 these shipments should post a visible recovery. For the purposes of the trade balance, the aforementioned increase in the terms of trade, in particular the higher price of copper, translates into an increase in valued copper exports, which more than offsets the lower volumes of non-mining exports. However, in a context of higher copper prices and lower costs in the mining industry, rents paid abroad increase, so in 2017, the current account has a slightly bigger deficit than was forecast in June (table 2). Inflation has been below expectations, standing at 1.7% annually in July. Although the evolution of core inflation was not very different from projections, the unusual drop in the fruits and vegetables component during these months has taken a little more than half a percentage point off annual inflation. Added to this is the significant appreciation of the peso since June, intensified in recent weeks.