They have undertaken reforms in the areas most important for competitiveness, growth and the sustainability of public finances such as labour markets, products markets, social security, pension systems, etc. These reforms are a prerequisite for dynamic and sustainable growth in the future and they must be vigorously pursued. In addition to this very clear determination at the different national levels to reduce deficits and introduce the necessary reforms, Europe has equipped itself with a new disciplinary framework. The Heads of State signed a new fiscal compact over a year ago that fixes very strict rules and gives very extensive powers to the European Commission to assess the compliance of Member States. This new compact goes hand in hand with the introduction of rules for monitoring macroeconomic imbalances. It is important to understand what these institutional advances represent: in effect, they represent a new Treaty creating very strong commitments for the States via rules that are far better calibrated and far more binding than those in place when European monetary union began. 3. Monetary Union is to be enhanced with a banking union  As well as being a year that saw a considerable strengthening of fiscal and macroeconomic discipline in Europe, 2012 also saw significant progress towards a banking union. Why has a banking union suddenly become such an indispensable and urgent project? Simply because we are now certain that many of the problems we have experienced could have been avoided with a banking union.
A number of elements support this view: •  Our accommodative monetary policy stance – which will remain so for as long as necessary – should contribute to underpinning this recovery;  •  Recent developments in economic sentiment survey data have shown some improvement from their low levels;  •  Looking ahead to later in the year and to 2014, euro area export growth should benefit from a recovery in global demand, while domestic demand should be  BIS central bankers’ speeches  1  supported by our accommodative monetary policy stance and by the recent real income gains due to lower oil prices and lower overall inflation. •  Furthermore, the significant improvements in financial markets seen since last summer boost confidence and generate wealth effects and should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation. Nevertheless, the Governing Council continues to see downside risks surrounding the economic outlook for the euro area. They include the possibility of weaker-than-expected domestic and global demand and the slow or insufficient implementation of structural reforms in euro area countries. Overall, the June 2013 Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area foresee annual real GDP declining by 0.6% in 2013 and increasing by 1.1% in 2014 thanks to three main drivers: export growth, accommodative monetary policy and low inflation. 2. How can we boost growth further in the euro area? A strong fiscal stimulus obviously appears unfeasible, given the necessity to rebalance public finances.