Chart 9A: Word cloud for “recession” topic in  Chart 9B: Fraction of speaking time devoted to  FOMC transcripts  “recession” topic in FOMC meeting, by speaker Recessions Median  Minimum Maximum  Proportion of speaker's time 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05  2008  2006  2004  2002  2000  1998  1996  1994  1992  1990  1988  0  Source: Hansen, McMahon and Prat (2014). Source: Hansen, McMahon and Prat (2014). Notes: Each word cloud represents the probability distribution of  Notes: The procedure estimates the allocation of each  words within a given topic; the size of the word indicates its  speaker’s time in the FOMC transcripts to a topic which we label  probability of occurring within that topic. “recession”. The chart shows a three-month moving average of the results for the first day of each FOMC meeting. The three lines show the proportion for the median FOMC member and the range around it. Shaded areas are NBER-dated recessions.
Uncertainties regarding the lagged effects of the strong monetary stimulus pose upside risks on both domestic and global economic activity. Given that the recovery in domestic demand has been relatively robust, a faster than envisaged recovery in external demand could lead to a rapid narrowing in the idle capacity, which, coupled with cost push pressures, may delay the attainment of the medium-term inflation targets. In this respect, should the recovery in economic activity turn out to be faster than expected, the monetary tightening implied in the baseline scenario may be implemented sooner than envisaged. Prospects regarding the pace of growth in developing economies, especially in China and India, have been posing upside risks regarding oil and other commodity prices. The increasing share of these economies in world demand has been creating additional pressures on commodity prices. I would like to emphasize that if commodity prices rise faster than expected in the forthcoming period and delay the disinflation, then we, as the Central Bank, may implement the monetary tightening described in the baseline scenario sooner than envisaged in order to eliminate the risks of deteriorating price setting behavior. The Central Bank will continue to monitor fiscal policy developments closely while formulating monetary policy strategy. Since the second half of 2009, economic activity has been stronger than envisaged in the Medium Term Program, leading to a better than expected performance in budget revenues.