John C Williams: No man is an island Remarks by Mr John C Williams, President and Chief Executive Officer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, at the 2019 Asia Economic Policy Conference, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, San Francisco, California, 14 November 2019. * * * As prepared for delivery “No man is an island entire of itself,” wrote the poet John Donne in 1624. Almost four centuries later, his words still ring true. And they are particularly salient when it comes to the financial fortunes of the global economy. Today I’m going to explore the commonalities and interconnectedness of the global economy, and what that means for the outlook in the United States. But before I delve into these ideas, I want to say what a pleasure it is to be back at the San Francisco Fed, among so many friendly faces. The Asia Economic Policy Conference is always a fascinating day, and I’d like to thank Mary Daly for the invitation to speak, and Zheng Liu and Mark Spiegel for putting together an outstanding program. I knew I was back in San Francisco when this morning I spent 20 minutes in line, waiting to spend five dollars on a cup of coffee. This is one thing for which inflation appears to be alive and well.
As policymakers, we need to take in how far-reaching those ripples are going to be. Monetary Policy The adjustments to monetary policy we made this year were designed to balance maintaining a strong U.S. economy with slowing global growth, and provide insurance against ongoing and potential future risks. And that’s what they’ve done. The economy is in a good place, and monetary policy is as well. My forecast is for moderate GDP growth, the labor market remaining strong, and inflation moving back to our symmetric 2 percent target. Of course, things can change. Data dependency remains our motto, and if there were a material change to this outlook, we would adjust monetary 3/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  policy in support of our goals of maximum employment and price stability. Conclusion I’ll conclude with this. John Donne’s words are perhaps more relevant in 2019 than they were in 1624. No man is an island, and no economy can insulate itself—for better or worse—from the fortunes of its neighbors. At the same time, all economies are having a common experience as a result of longer-term structural changes. Shifts in demographics and productivity growth point clearly in the direction of low neutral interest rates and slowing growth. We’re seeing the reality of these changes in the form of sluggish inflation and interest rates much lower than in previous decades. Central banks and policymakers around the world need to prepare for economies that are more connected than ever before. I’ll now take your questions.