While employment growth moderated in the second half of last year, in 2018 it was significantly higher than would be expected based on the static long-term relationship between employment and GDP growth.7 As a result, real disposable income has remained resilient and households’ assessment of their own financial situation, which is a good leading indicator of consumption, remains positive. The resilience of the employment-consumption relationship helps explain why, even as the manufacturing outlook has worsened, services have remained relatively robust. Services is the most labour-intensive sector and is associated closely with consumers’ expenditure.8 There are however lags between changes in GDP and in employment, and surveys on employment, while remaining in expansionary territory, have decelerated since the middle of last year. So should the growth slowdown turn into a more persistent phenomenon, employment and consumption are likely to be affected. All in all, the current data suggest that external demand has not yet spilled over significantly into domestic demand, but the risks have risen in the last months and uncertainty remains high. This is why our medium-term outlook remains that growth will gradually return to potential, but the risks remain tilted to the downside. That outlook is also being buttressed by the pre-emptive reaction of stabilisation policies.
As a result, the overall GDP growth for the quarter came in at 1.3 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis. Ladies and Gentlemen, In 2010, the Thai economy is expected to stay on the course of a gradual recovery due to two important factors. First, the continued world recovery, and second the fiscal stimulus. Let me go into each of these briefly. First, the IMF and market consensus expect the world economy to return to positive growth next year, owing primarily to monetary and fiscal policies of the industrialized economies that are expected to remain accommodative. Emerging market economies including Asia are expected to rebound faster and stronger than developed economies. This is because Asia’s financial sectors were not directly affected by the current crisis. Brighter prospect for the global economy next year means our export sector can continue to be our main growth engine going forward. Secondly, the government spending under SP2 or the Strong Thai scheme will also continue to support the nascent recovery. As we are all aware, we cannot indefinitely rely on fiscal stimulus to keep the economy going so it is our hope that public spending will eventually crowd in private demand so that the recovery will continue after the stimulus tapers off. Now let me turn to the risks associated with this outlook. Despite several good signals, the recovery of the world economy is still subject to a number of downside risks.