In fact, the closure of domestic output gaps – i.e., the difference between actual and trend growth – that a year ago we expected to occur over the course of 2011, took place in the first part of the year. The unemployment rate has fallen rapidly and is now below its historic average. Inflation, meanwhile, has concluded a process of convergence to the 3-percent target. Inflation fears resurfaced during the first quarter of this year, but subsided after the Board’s monetary policy decisions and the changes in the external macroeconomic scenario. We have thus arrived at a situation where the monetary policy interest rate (MPR) stands within a range that is considered normal. However, the events of 2008 still cast their shadow over the world economic outlook. Despite the time elapsed and the economic and financial measures adopted by economic policymakers around the world, we are still seeing the aftereffects of this episode. The underlying problems that caused the disaster have not been totally resolved, and continue to hold back the recovery of private demand. Added to this is the erosion of trust in the public finance management in some Eurozone members and in the U.S., which prompted a new episode of financial stress in early August, and still another one a few days ago. The world economy is going through an extremely complex situation. Certainly, Chile has tools to soften the impact of adverse external conditions.
Add to this that monetary policy interest rates are at their all-time lows, with which the capacity of central banks to increase the stimulus is also limited. In short, the tools traditionally used to boost growth have little room for maneuver in the developed world. Another source of risks that is being increasingly debated is the possibility of developed economies, especially the U.S., enduring a long time of slow growth. Excessive private debts, particularly of households, and public debt, combined with weak labor markets, are determinants of this assessment. This could shape a similar situation to that of Japan after the bursting of its housing bubble in the late 1980s, which gave way to a period of stagnation that has seen no end. Although we believe this to be an unlikely scenario, its consequences on the global economy could be severe. Amidst these conditions, emerging economies continue to grow strongly. The risks of overheating we saw only a few months back have diminished, partly because of the very action of the adopted economic policies and, especially, of monetary measures. There are still risks, however. For one, it is obvious that if developed economies continue to lag, the external demand facing the emerging world will fall, hurting their growth potential. Although in the current scenario some dynamism and a certain degree of decoupling are expected, this cannot go on indefinitely. Given the weakness of domestic demands in developed countries, they rely on their exports to grow and to resolve their global imbalances.