Therefore, given all the developments, we have completely reviewed our economic forecast. Our today’s decision relies exactly on the forecast, and not on the latest statistics we are receiving. The statistics still show the previous month’s situation and cannot provide a clear view to estimate further trends. Building our forecast, we were rather taking into account leading indicators of the economic situation, including data on electric power consumption, financial flows, household spending, as well as the experience of other countries where the pandemic has been spreading for a longer period. I will now dwell on the main assumptions behind our baseline forecast. Our forecast relies on a conservative view of oil prices, especially in 2020. We assume that they will be slowly growing from the average level of USD 15 per barrel in the second quarter to USD 25 per barrel in the fourth quarter. There are large oil stocks accumulated, with a downfall in global demand. This will limit the recovery of oil prices, even if the new OPEC+ agreement is fully complied with. Further on, oil prices are expected to gradually rise to USD 45 per barrel in 2022 as global demand picks up and oil stock levels decrease. Another key assumption of our forecast is the duration of the coronavirus pandemic and the restrictions implemented in Russia and abroad. Our estimates suggest that governments will be gradually lifting or considerably easing the majority of current restrictions in the second quarter.
This recent decade has seen the rapid internationalisation of Islamic finance resulting in significant growth in cross border financial flows. The development of Islamic financial markets, in particular, the sukuk market, the progressive financial sector liberalisation, and the establishment of international arrangements and institutions to safeguard financial stability, cumulatively have contributed to enhance the international dimension of the industry. There are now more than 600 Islamic financial institutions operating in more than 75 countries. Given that Islamic financial transactions require an underlying economic transaction, it is a form of financial intermediation that is well anchored to serve the real economy. With its internationalisation, it has become an increasingly more important channel for the efficient allocation of financial resources across borders and for the diversification of risks. This new international dimension of Islamic finance has facilitated stronger financial ties between Asia and the Middle East. The sukuk market in particular has become an important avenue for international fund raising and investment activities that generate significant cross border flows. While the efforts to put in place these pre-conditions will continue, equally important is the role of the private sector in driving the Asian regional financial integration agenda, particularly in building the institutional capability to effectively intermediate funds in the region. While foreign presence throughout our region facilitates this process, it needs to be complemented by strong domestic regional intermediaries whose operations would be more inclusive and thus increase the potential for balanced growth in our region.