I nevertheless think that one can draw some conclusions from these exercises: Firstly: Whatever the authorities do in terms of macroprudential policy measures, changes in fiscal policy or in monetary policy, it will affect the price of money in the economy, that is, loan costs, and thereby the incentives for indebtedness. This means that measures taken in one area must take into account what is being done in other areas. The one hand must be aware of what the other is doing, even if they are not completely coordinated. 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Secondly: It is clear that of the measures now being discussed, some have much greater potential than others for influencing the incentives for households to borrow. Here the challenge will be to find measures that are sufficiently forceful, but will not be the actual straw that breaks the camel’s back. What one wants to achieve is a controlled adjustment. Thirdly: If we are to deal with the excessively high indebtedness, it is unavoidable that this will have an effect on individual households and entail costs for the economy as a whole – although of course the benefits will ultimately weigh heavier, if we can avoid a really poor outcome. Let me be clear that I do not believe it is enough to solely implement measures that affect the supply and demand for credit through increased loan costs for households. Other measures are also needed.
After a quick look at the statistics, we can conclude that an average household of this type in Upplands Väsby has a total income of around SEK 44,000 a month after tax and a first mortgage of around SEK 1.75 million. A corresponding household in Luleå can be assumed to have a total income of approximately SEK 39,000 a month and a mortgage of approximately SEK 1.1 million. I am here talking about two average households without extremely high incomes or loans. The debt ratio, that is, the loan in relation to disposable income, is in this case 331 per cent for the family from Upplands Väsby and 235 per cent for the family in Luleå.17. For the family in Upplands Väsby this is just above the average in the country for households with mortgages, while the family in Luleå is well below average. At the same time, we know that it is not unusual for households to have debt ratios of 600 per cent, for example in central Stockholm. Let us therefore include one of these households in our comparison. For a similar family with two children in central Stockholm, with a total income after tax of almost SEK 55,000 per month, a loan of almost SEK 4 million entails a debt ratio of around 600 per cent. 16  According to the Financial Accounts, Swedish households’ debt currently amounts to around SEK 3,300 billion, while their disposable income amounts to a total of around SEK 1,900 billion, according to the National Accounts.