Also, in this case, the effects have been uneven across banks, given what were diverging starting positions and the differing degree of exposure to the regions, sectors, firms and population groups most affected by the crisis. One area where the impact of the crisis is most visible is public finances, which have seen a deterioration with few precedents in peacetime. The budget deficit was up almost 7 pp to over 10% of GDP. And the rise in the public debt ratio exceeded 20 pp, to around 120%. In short, a little over a year later, the consequences of the pandemic remain very much apparent in the economy. Output and employment are still some distance off their preCOVID levels, markedly so in certain services sectors, and the general government sector as a whole and some households and firms segments have seen their financial position worsen significantly. Further, financial institutions, whose profitability has fallen, will foreseeably witness a progressive worsening of their credit portfolio. The medium-term outlook: uncertainty remains high But what is the outlook ahead? As stated, the successive waves of the pandemic have checked the recovery after the summer. Indeed, quarterly GDP growth in Spain was zero in 2020 Q4 and, for 2021 Q1, our projections under the baseline scenario point to slightly negative growth of -0.4%. 2  Specifically, in the industries involving social interaction, half the people employed reside in households where saving is lower than one-quarter of their annual income.
I am pleased to now introduce the first President and Dean of the Asia School of Business, Professor Charles Fine. Professor Fine is the Chrysler Leaders for Global Operations Professor of Management, and a Professor of Operations Management and Engineering Systems, at MIT Sloan. He has served as a Professor at MIT Sloan for over 30 years, and has teaching experience as a visiting faculty at the Stanford Business School, the Harvard Business School and the Indian Business School. His research focuses mainly on supply chain strategy and value chain roadmapping. His work has supported the design and improvement of supply chain relationships for companies in the electronics, automotive, aerospace, communications, and consumer products industries. Kindly join me in welcoming Professor Fine. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches