In this scenario, energy and food commodity prices are assumed to increase substantially due to severe supply disruptions associated with an intensification of the war in Ukraine, combined with other negative shocks to the European economy.5 The result would be an inflation rate of 6.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024. Let me emphasise, however, that despite all the recent developments regarding gas supply through the Nord stream pipeline, one cannot assume that we are already in the downside scenario. This is because the other shocks assumed in this downside scenario have not materialised yet. Indeed, several key commodity prices – including energy prices - are currently below the ECB baseline scenario (and more so in comparison to the downside scenario), which may reflect lower than expected demand. 4  For a discussion of second round effects in the euro area, see Battistini, N. , H. Grapow, E. Hahn and M. Soudan “Wage share dynamics and second-round effects on inflation after energy price surges in the 1970s and today”, ECB Economic Bulletin, Issue 5/2022 5 See Box 3 of the September ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area,  2  Finally, an additional element of uncertainty is related to the synchronised tightening of monetary policy across countries and its impact on activity – including global spill-overs – and inflation.6 Framing our monetary policy response: the ECB’s monetary policy strategy As I said before, it is the ECB’s responsibility to preserve price stability in the euro area.
In order to achieve a harmonized application of legislation at European level and to support payment initiation and account information service providers, the European Banking Authority (EBA) adopted an opinion on obstacles in early June 2020. within the meaning of Art. 32 (3) of the regulatory technical standards for in-depth identification of the customer and common and secure standards of communication1. The opinion highlights a number of technical or organizational obstacles that payment service providers, which maintain accounts, pose to the new services and which should be removed. Examples of such obstacles include the unavailability of all procedures for performing in-depth identification of the customer when using the new services, requiring manual entry of the IBAN on the payment account from which payment is initiated or requesting account information, repeated in-depth establishing the identity when initiating payment, the need to provide prior consent to the client to use the new services, etc. 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  Improving the security of electronic payments is the second major aspect of PSD2. In September 2019, the requirements for payment service providers to apply a procedure for indepth identification of the customer when the payer accesses his payment account online, initiates an electronic payment transaction or performs another remote action that could occur risk of payment fraud. These requirements have started to apply to credit transfers made through the Internet and mobile banking platforms.