that a significant proportion of these payments should be deferred over time, allowing for possible reductions in case losses materialize. This is an area, more than in any other where “business as usual” cannot apply anymore. Considering, especially, recent profits, it is clear that they would not have been possible without the wide array of public support and guarantees which have benefited the financial industry. It is only legitimate to ask that those profits should primarily be used to bolster capital and allow banks to focus on their core task of financing the economy. Tomorrow’s meeting will be an opportunity to ascertain that we have made a lot of progress but that much work remains to be done. It is an ongoing process, best described as “rebuilding the plane as we fly it", clearly a very challenging and perilous task. 2  BIS Review 104/2009
Norwegian money market premiums are expected to edge down ahead in line with premiums in global markets. BIS Review 37/2009  3  The global downturn led to a marked fall in prices for oil and other commodities through autumn 2008. Oil prices have for a period now hovered around USD 45 per barrel. Oil futures prices have fallen and indicate an oil price of around USD 55 per barrel in 2010. Other commodity prices that are important for the Norwegian economy have also fallen sharply. Metal prices are particularly sensitive to cyclical developments. Futures prices for a selection of raw materials indicate unchanged or moderately rising prices in the next few years. Many countries that have been hit by the economic setback will see an improvement in their terms of trade and growth in their disposable income. 4  BIS Review 37/2009  The current downturn followed a period of very high global and domestic economic growth, supported by favorable trading conditions. Few countries benefited more than Norway from the economic upturn, which drove up prices for oil, gas and other export commodities. At the same time, an increasing number of cheap consumer goods were imported from new EU countries and from Asia. Norway’s real disposable income increased by more than 40 per cent from 2002 to 2008, more than that of any other western country. But our terms of trade are now deteriorating.