Figure 4 2020 growth forecast in latest Monetary Policy Reports (*) (annual change, percent)  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4 EE.UU. Eurozona  China  A. Latina  (*) Evolution of forecasts from MP Reports of September 2018 to March 2020. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 10  Figure 5 Commodity prices 2020 forecasts (1)  Terms of trade (2)  (USD/lb; USD/ barrel)  (índex, 2013=100)  3.00  65  110  110  2.75  55  100  100  2.50  45  90  90  2.25  35  80  80  2.00  25  70  Copper  70 04  Oil  07  11  14  17  20  (1) Evolution of the forecast between the MP Reports of March 2019 and March 2020. (2) Red diamonds show forecasts for the period 2020-2022 contained in the MP Report of March 2020. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 6 How do you feel about the performance of your business over the next six months? 100  Very preoccupied  Slightly preoccupied  Not preoccupied  50  100 50  0  0 Unfolding of social conflict  Effects of Covid-19  Global economic situation  Tightened lending standards  How will your firm's number of employees evolve in 2020 with respect to today?
Despite significant downward corrections, it is still possible for the economy to perform below expectations, particularly towards 2021 and 2022. This could be the case if the control of the sanitary emergency and containment measures around the world need to be kept in place longer than anticipated. This could also happen if the significant financial needs of businesses and households fail to be met by the supply of credit. Such scenarios would entail solvency problems and bankruptcies of companies in the most affected sectors, with a greater loss of jobs and a slower speed of recovery for the next two years. In such case, convergence to the inflation target may require keeping the MPR at its technical minimum for a longer 6  period of time. This is reflected in the monetary policy trajectory that describes the lower part of the MPR corridor (Figure 12). Another possible scenario is that the sanitary crisis is resolved faster, and the economy restarts its normal activities sooner than expected, lending support to inflation towards late 2020 and the turn of 2021. In such a case, monetary policy could begin normalizing gradually some quarters before, i.e. consistently with the upper bound of the MPR corridor (Figure 12). Inflation could also rise if the companies’ downtime results in a large drop in the available supply of goods and services, pushing up prices. In that case, it is not evident that the MPR path has to be changed, in particular if medium-term inflation expectations continue to be aligned with the target.