Following the monetary policy meeting on 21 September, the Executive Board stated that developments in output, demand and underlying inflation had been consistent with the projections in the June Inflation Report. The Executive Board also stated that its monetary policy strategy and assessments indicate that the interest rate should be gradually increased in the period ahead. One option was to increase the interest rate at this meeting, but the Executive Board found it appropriate to leave the interest rate unchanged. Household credit growth Monetary policy easing through 2003 and into 2004 has resulted in low real interest rates. Short-term real interest rates may now be considerably lower than the level that implies long-term balance in the economy – the neutral real interest rate. A low real interest rate, and expectations of a continued low real interest rate, will contribute to stimulating activity even after the effects of the interest rate fall unwind. Although the projections are based on rising real interest rates, the real interest rate will be lower than the neutral rate during the entire period. The monetary policy stance is therefore expansionary. So far, the effects do not appear to be stronger than expected, but we have little experience of such low interest rates. How quickly prices and wages will react when growth in output and employment picks up is uncertain. There is also a risk that an interest rate that is kept low for a longer period may lead to expectations of a persistently low interest rate.
So far, there is no indication that the US has problems in financing its deficit. If creditors begin to fear a fall in prices and withdraw from the market, substantial corrections may nevertheless be triggered. This may lead to higher interest rates and perhaps also a fall in US equity markets that spills over to other countries’ financial markets. In that case, the dollar will also depreciate. The household debt burden in the US may be another source of instability if households abruptly reduce both housing demand and consumption. Strong demand in the US has sustained growth in the world economy. We assume that growth will slow somewhat in the US in the period ahead. A more pronounced downturn cannot be ruled out, however. An abrupt and pronounced downturn might fairly rapidly lead to declining growth in the entire OECD area. The US is not the only source of trade imbalances. They also reflect very low growth in continental Europe and largely export-based growth in Asian countries. Therefore, countries other than the US must also contribute in order to prevent a decline in world economic growth. With limited domestic growth capacity and high unemployment, many industrial countries are poorly equipped to cope with a weaker dollar and lower demand from the US. The challenges are perhaps particularly demanding in  3/7  some large European countries, whereas it appears that the Japanese economy is becoming more self-driven.