11 In particular, according to Met Office (2018), by 2100, in parts of the UK sea levels could rise by up to 70cm in a ‘low emissions scenario’, and by up to 115cm in a ‘high emissions scenario’, relative to their 1981–2000 levels. See Box 6 in PRA report (2018): ‘Transition in thinking: The impact of climate change on the UK banking sector’ for more detail on the impact of flood risk on residential mortgage portfolios. 12 See announcement. 13 See IEA and IRENA (2017), ‘Perspectives for the Energy Transition’. The estimates are for a scenario compatible with limiting the rise in global mean temperature to 2°C by 2100 with a probability of 66%, as a way of contributing to the ‘well below 2°C’ target of the Paris Agreement. 9  6  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  6  Financial companies will need to continue to adapt if they are to be able to serve in this new environment. Their business decisions will need increasingly to reflect the risks. So we’re testing their ability to do this. We’re going to stress test individual firms and the financial system for resilience to climate risks. Our stress test will be the first of its kind to integrate fully climate scenarios with macroeconomic and financial system models. The Network – of central banks and supervisors – for Greening the Financial System is currently working to develop a set of climate scenarios for regulators to use.
He worked on economic reconstruction in Afghanistan, and on coordination of financial policy with the G7 countries. All in all, an impressive job. Currently, John is a member of the G20 Eminent Persons Group on Global Financial Governance, which aims at improving the functioning of the global financial architecture and governance. No less fascinating is John Taylor the teacher in both ‘quantitative’ and ‘qualitative’ terms. On the one hand, he has given countless speeches, hundreds of lectures, written several Page 3/4  textbooks and developed online courses. On the other hand, he is known for mixing teaching with entertainment. Indeed, John does not hesitate to use special didactic techniques to help students understand or remember material. During his classes, to cite just one example, John enters into a humorous dialogue with Adam Smith, revealing deep enthusiasm and dedication to the job. And by the way, this example is quite remarkable for someone who describes his humour “as mostly deadpan”, so that it generally takes a few lectures before his students are able to figure out when something is actually a joke. Having talked about John’s three occupations separately, I should emphasise how well they interact and stimulate one another. Research is integrated into college lectures; government work has enabled him to understand policy constraints, while this in turn has stimulated research. “Economic research,” John once wrote, “is most exciting and productive when it is policy-driven.” Karl Brunner could not have agreed more.