Let me put it differently: is potential growth in those economies being affected by the fact that one part of the world, with nearly two-thirds of its population, is growing on average by 6–7% (or more) per year? If so, in what ways? One hypothesis which we may want to assess and test is that the so-called “long term equilibrium” variables which are so important in our economic models are in fact affected by globalisation, as advanced economies are becoming smaller and smaller. Not taking this into account may induce policy-makers to misjudge the situation and cause international surveillance to fail. These are clearly very difficult issues to examine. However, it seems to me that the analysis so far is insufficient. I won’t go into detail but would just like to pose some questions. Growth The first issue, or question, I would like to raise is whether the increase in growth rates in EMEs has had, and will have, a negative or a positive impact on trend growth in advanced economies. Taking a standard neo-classical trade model, the answer depends on various assumptions. The prevailing consensus is that globalisation provides opportunities for all, including advanced economies; their growth will not necessarily suffer. This is the conventional wisdom.
In 2014, payment cards were used for more than 47 billion transactions in the European Union, that is to say a level almost identical to the overall combined number of transactions involving credit transfers and direct debits, respectively the second and third most used payment instruments. In France, payment cards were used in more than 50% of all non-cash payments transactions, amounting to nearly 9.5 billion operations in 2014, compared to only 3 billion transactions in 2001. The specificity of card payments is that they occur for transactions of a relatively small amount € in average in France), making it the strongest alternative to cash for proximity payments. This situation is the result of years of efforts made by market stakeholders to build a secure, efficient and convenient payment instrument. The French community was at the forefront of such evolution with the early adoption in 1992 of chip for payment cards, which has been followed by the introduction and the subsequent widespread adoption of the EMV standard. This latter evolution has been the cornerstone of the uptake of payment cards by allowing fast and secure transactions through Europe. This predominance of payment cards may nonetheless be at stake nowadays, with the conjunction of three main trends that have a disruptive effect on the market: new solutions, new behaviors and players, new regulations. First, innovative payment solutions based on SEPA schemes are very likely to emerge.