One of the more pronounced differences with earlier periods is that Sweden has broken the pattern of high inflation, recurrent cost crises and devaluations that characterised the 1970s and 1980s. Surveys and other information indicate that for some time now, households and firms have adapted their inflation expectations to the Riksbank’s target. In that it influences the behaviour of those who set prices and wages, this in itself assists our endeavours to keep inflation down. Estimates by the Riksbank suggest, moreover, that the long-term component of inflation decreased appreciably in the 1990s, in which case there is a more permanent restraining force that is not directly dependent on how the real economy is functioning. But as I mentioned earlier, there are good grounds for supposing that a low, stable path for inflation can generate positive indirect effects on the real economy. There are also certain signs that the cyclical fluctuations in inflation - and not just its average level - have been smoothed in recent years. 5  BIS Review 18/2000  Thus, there are some indications that the present cyclical upswing will not generate the same acceleration of inflation as its predecessors. But as output in the Swedish economy has been below the sustainable trend ever since the beginning of the 1990s - so that what we have experienced, strictly speaking, is a long period of low activity - it is difficult to tell whether the behaviour of inflation over a complete cycle has in fact changed.
In this respect, I would like to thank the organization committee for their efforts in bringing these very interesting and enlightening studies under this conference. I wish the conference a complete success and I would like to thank all our guests for their participation. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches