BIS Review 68/2010  1  Growth Rates and Unemployment Rates in Advanced and Emerging Economies Growth Rates (Annual Percentage Change)  Advanced Economies Unemployment Rates (Percent)  10  11 USA  Euro Area  8  9  6 4  7  2 0  5 -2 Advanced Economies Emergi ng Economi es Export Weight ed  6. 01 08  01 06  01 04  0309  0307  0305  0303  0301  0399  0397  Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. 01 02  3  -6  0100  -4  Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. Commodity prices, which fell drastically in the last quarter of 2008 due to the significant contraction in global economic activity, hovered at low levels in early 2009. However, commodity prices began trending upward as of the second half of the year mainly on the back of the growing optimism about the global economic recovery and the boosting demand stimulated by the fiscal incentives implemented in China. The liquidity glut that was particularly fuelled by stimulus packages implemented in advanced countries, and the accelerating global economic activity resulted in an increase in oil and commodity prices, which further continued into the first quarter of 2010 as well.
4  BIS Review 68/2010  Risk Premium Indicators 5-Year CDS Rate Changes*  EMBI+ 900  5.5  Turkey Brazil S.Africa Hungary S.Korea  4.5 3.5  EMBI+ Turkey 800 EMBI+  700 600 500 400  2.5  300  1.5  200  0210  1009  0609  0209  1008  0608  1007  0210  1209  1009  0809  0609  0409  0209  1208  1008  0808  *Rate changes with base August 2008 (equals 1 on August 29, 2008). Source: Bloomberg, CBRT. 0208  100  0.5  Source: Bloomberg. 13. However, an important point that needs to be highlighted is that risk indicators for the Turkish economy have exhibited a more favorable performance compared to that of other emerging market economies especially since the height of the crisis during the final quarter of 2008. This development not only implies the soundness of the Turkish financial structure, but also indicates that our economy has gained resilience and strength against global crises compared to previous periods. 14. Turkey’s CDS rating changed dramatically at the end of 2009. Medium to long-term forecasts for Turkey were revised positively, many investors increased the weight of Turkish assets in their portfolios, and more importantly, prominent credit-rating agencies upgraded Turkey’s credit rating. There may be some credit upgrades in the upcoming period, in case a fiscal discipline backed by structural reforms is achieved and maintained.