This year’s Current Account deficit will match the March forecast, because the higher copper price compensates for the expansion of domestic expenditure. All in all, between 2020 and 2021, the Current Account balance will turn negative, reflecting the increase in domestic demand. Compared to March, during the three-year period 2021-2023, the world economy will see slightly higher growth rates and the average annual copper price will be 20 to 30 cents above the downsloping trend projected in March. In addition to the recent rise, this correction responds to the higher long-term copper price, which is increased to USD 3.3 per pound, from USD 2.7 previously. Despite the oil price hike over the projection horizon, the terms of trade are, on average, 4 percent higher than we estimated in March (Table 2). The better actual and expected performance of GDP this year leads to an earlier closing of the output gap than anticipated in the March central scenario. This considers that the strong growth in domestic demand, associated with consumption, will boost effective GDP in the short term. Because of this, and despite the second-quarter pullback and the upward correction to potential GDP (which I will touch upon in a few moments), the gap will close during the third quarter of this year, turning positive for a few quarters. It will then fall in 2022 in line with the reduction of stimulus to private spending, oscillating around zero until the end of 2023 (Figure 16).
We have also worked on a data dashboard for the top management to track gender progress through KPIs on an annual basis, we have launched leadership and mentoring programs to strengthen strategic skills and encourage female to apply for management positions, we guarantee gender equitable panels in managerial recruitment processes, we are deploying training in unconscious bias, we have an internal D&I manifesto and we are working closely on a regular basis with our colleagues of the ESCB and SSM on a specific network to advance diversity and inclusion in our institutions. These actions are already proving we are on the right path, but events, such as this, sharing different views, challenges, approaches, and possible ways of improving, allow us to discover new pathways to become more efficient in the fulfilling of our goal: gender equality in central banks. Thank you very much and enjoy the sessions! 2