The remaining 55% of debts subject to redemption which make about $ billion can be covered from the current account balance and reduction of international reserves. According to our calculations, operations to close the gap of the balance of payments will require about $ billion next year. The Bank of Russia will carry out transactions aimed at maintaining stability of the balance of payments, i.e. the financial stability, in the stipulated volumes. We believe that the international reserves are sufficient to carry out foreign exchange transactions in such volume. Meanwhile, in the next three years, the reserves level will be significantly above the generally accepted adequacy indicators. There definitely will be no deficit of foreign exchange liquidity given these parameters of the balance of payments and the volume of our operations. We indent to conduct the aforementioned FX repos, extend foreign currency loans and carry out occasional direct FX buy/sell transactions, inter alia, to accumulate and use Government reserve funds. It should be noted that under this scenario the ruble should appreciate considerably next year due to both the compensation of the currently observed exchange rate overshoot or, in other words, excessive depreciation, and the oil price growth stipulated by the scenario. Let me remind you that according to the scenario oil price will be $ This is our baseline scenario. At the same time we are aware of the pessimistic sentiments in the market due to the dynamics of oil contract quotations observed over the last months.
Time lag of the reaction of the banking sector to the change of the Bank of Russia key rate remains large though, according to our estimates, gradually shrinking. This refers to deposit rates as well. As lags shrink, the effectiveness of the interest rate channel of the Bank of Russia monetary transmission mechanism will improve. As for the foreign exchange transmission channel, its impact is complicated due to the high volatility in the foreign exchange market which resulted, inter alia, from the restricted access of Russian banks and companies to external markets. In order to normalise the situation with foreign exchange liquidity, the Bank of Russia has introduced reverse transactions to provide it. Interest rates on these transactions have been decreased to the level of LIBOR rates plus 0.5 pp. The volume of foreign exchange liquidity provision is determined by the demand estimates based on the balance of payments forecast. The next one-year repo auction of 15 December will accept Eurobonds and provide for the possibility of early deal termination by borrowers. In the near future the Bank of Russia also intends to consider the introduction of foreign exchange lending secured by non-marketable assets. Foreign exchange loans, extended by banks to companies with stable income in foreign currency, are supposed to be eligible as collateral. Bank of Russia forecast The current situation requires updating the forecasts and adjusting the policy to ensure financial and price stability enabling the economy to adjust to the new conditions and start developing as quickly as possible.