But one can often nevertheless have some suspicion of what might happen, even if it may be difficult to quantify. My impression is that there are risks on the domestic side that are not conspicuous or visible yet but may build up. Although resource utilisation is low and unemployment is high at present, the labour market is constantly improving and we have had to revise our forecast for employment up several times. The shortage figures are also rising. The levels may not be alarming, but an upward trend is clear. And there is a clear risk that labour shortages may arise further ahead. During the previous economic upturn a labour shortage arose fairly early, despite relatively high unemployment, and it is easy to forget that the major theme before the crisis was the severe problems in obtaining skilled labour. Although structural reforms have been made, it is difficult to say how great an effect they will have, and at what range. If monetary policy is too expansionary for too long, and the wheels are allowed to spin too fast, this could create problems with bottlenecks, if not during the forecast period then immediately thereafter. Household borrowing is also a risk factor, and perhaps an even larger one, in the slightly longer run. A lower repo rate means there is a risk that the debt ratio will continue to build up from already high levels.
Niklaus Blattner: A look behind the scenes of system oversight Introductory remarks by Mr Niklaus Blattner, Vice-Chairman of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank, at the end-of-year media news conference, Zurich, 16 December 2004. *  *  *  It is the task of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to contribute to the stability of the financial system. Implementation rests on three pillars: macroprudential oversight of the banking sector (Financial Stability Report), oversight of systemically important payment and securities settlement systems (system oversight) and crisis management measures. This is what I talked about at the last press conference. Today, I would like to give you a look behind the scenes of system oversight. Then I will turn to the regulatory environment, which we are also obliged to critically monitor and shape. System oversight: a look behind the scenes In the last few months, we had to define which payment and securities settlement systems are systemically important. Only these systems have to comply with the minimum requirements stipulated in the National Bank Ordinance. To be classed as systemically important, it is not sufficient that a system is significant to the national economy, ie we do not merely consider the number and volume of transactions settled through a system. Rather, we focus on whether the failure of a system jeopardises the economy’s supply of liquidity. This is the case particularly if participants in a flawed payment or securities settlement system have no other alternatives.