For the moment, however, we have to work on the basis of the published statistics and our experience, which tells us that good macroeconomic data should not provide a basis for complacency. The importance of humility is emphasised by the recent experiences several countries have had in Asia. For instance, the experience of Japan at the end of the 1980s and Korea in the mid-1990s, when traditional macroeconomic measures, such as consumer price inflation and public finances long indicated a favourable development. What was not so evident were the imbalances built up through stock exchange and property valuations and through low-yield investments. What is the reason behind the positive developments? Is the positive development in Sweden due to computers and the Internet? It is of course possible that information technology has made a contribution, but is it a central part of the explanation? The new information technology is not very good at explaining what has happened so far in the Swedish economy. The path of inflation is not determined by technological or organisational developments. There have been periods of technological development with rising, falling and constant price levels. In Sweden, the shift in monetary and fiscal policy towards macroeconomic stability is an important part of the explanation for the improved economic developments. Moreover, we have moved away from a tax system that severely restrained the economy (Stig Malm called it perverse), to a system that is less restrictive.
Examples of this include the introduction of the steam engine and the telegraph at the beginning of the 19th century, the building of the railways somewhat later and the internal-combustion engine and electric motor in the 20th century. These changes usually follow a similar pattern of growth and structural transformation. The transitional phase initially involves a period of crisis, which is expressed in company closures and rising unemployment. After this, productivity and growth increase. Some industries expand rapidly and are met by expectations of large profits. The demand for labour is unevenly distributed and matching problems arise. Wage differentials increase. In many ways the “new” economy can be regarded as one in a row of structural changes taking place in society. It is thus more appropriate, in many respects, to talk of a blend of new and old, rather than a new economy. In comparison with the steam engine, the railways and electricity, today’s IT developments may be perceived as marginal. But, while there is considerable exaggeration in the discussion of the importance of IT, I would still say that today’s change process could be compared to these events. Computers and the Internet allow us to gather information easily, cheaply and rapidly, as well as facilitating contacts between buyers and sellers at almost all levels. IT affects a number of areas, such as financing, stock management and procurement. This often involves a dramatic reduction in costs.