As in other countries, the outlook for the Spanish economy remains uncertain, although this has abated somewhat recently in light of the brighter figures for the world economy. It is likely that the recovery in the Spanish economy will lag that in the euro area to some extent. This is due above all to the marked weakness of investment, not only in the case of housing, but also in that of business investment, given the very low levels of capacity utilisation. While public investment will continue to account for a high proportion of GDP in 2010, this figure will be lower than in 2009. The outlook for private consumption is more uncertain. The main determinants of consumption will not be favourable, given the foreseeable behaviour of employment and the difficulty of reversing the high unemployment rate. Yet as the decline in households’ consumption has been much more drastic than that of their incomes, the saving rate is climbing to very high and indeed unprecedented levels. Hence, if the factors of uncertainty were to abate, consumption might contribute more significantly to the recovery. Given these constraints, the main support factor of activity in 2010 has to be the external sector. This will be assisted by the earlier recovery of our main trading partners and the relatively favourable course that Spanish exports are following.
And the threat posed by climate change means we need to give serious consideration to the resilience of our physical and digital infrastructure. The New York Fed has the appearance of an historic institution, but behind the stone façade 1/2  BIS central bankers' speeches  we’re grappling with these issues in the same way that you are. In our economic research, our supervision of financial institutions, the payments systems we operate, in short – in all that we do. Talent, technology, and innovation challenge us every day. They create incredible opportunity, but they also test us by exposing new vulnerabilities. I know that over the next couple of days there will be lots of valuable insights shared by experts about how to handle the challenges posed by big data, cryptocurrency, and climate change. But first, to kick off the conference, it’s my pleasure to introduce John Dugan, Chair of Citigroup. Citigroup has operations in over 150 countries, with about 200 million customer accounts worldwide.2 As head of a global employer with complex, international operations, John is no stranger to the changing nature of risk. John became Chair of Citigroup at the start of this year. Prior to that he was chair of the Financial Institutions Group at the law firm Covington & Burling LLP, where he spent much of his career. He has also held a number of public sector roles, including Comptroller of the Currency during a critical time for our financial system and economy, from 2005–2010.