Among our activities, we monitor economic performance on a monthly basis, we tap into the insights of the members of our Small Business and Agriculture Advisory Council and Upstate Advisory Board, we have constructed a consumer credit panel that allows us to better understand the financial condition of homeowners and students, we have developed a “Regional Mortgage Conditions” dataset and other housing tools at the county and zip code level to ensure that policymakers and counselors are well informed, and we conduct a biannual poll of small businesses to understand their credit needs and availability. Interestingly, our most recent poll, released in May of this year, shows improvements in small businesses’ ability to get credit throughout the region, though it remains a major growth challenge for these types of firms. As you can see, we have a lot to keep us engaged with the region. Much of this information can be found on our website, which I would invite you to visit and use as a resource. Now, I’d like to review recent developments in the local and national economies, and at the end of my talk will be happy to answer any questions you have. As always, what I have to say reflects my own views and not necessarily those of the Federal Reserve System or the Federal Open Market Committee.
The Great Recession and sluggish recovery that has followed has made it difficult for people to find jobs, and I’m sure you may be wondering about whether going to college will turn out to be a good investment, especially if faced with the burden of student debt, something we track quite closely. Let me reassure you, the benefits of a college degree remain significant. Research we have undertaken at the New York Fed shows that young people with a college degree are more likely to have a job and they tend to earn considerably higher wages than those without degrees – and this is true even for those who may be underemployed initially when they first enter the labor market after graduation. Although the labor market has been challenging for college graduates in recent years, I am confident that most will find work and transition into higher-skilled jobs as they gain experience and as the labor market improves. Now, I’d like to turn my attention to recent developments in the national economy. National economic conditions Let me begin by taking stock of where we are at the moment. Then I will address my expectations for the performance of the economy in 2014 and 2015. 2  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Since the end of what is now called the Great Recession in mid-2009, the U.S. economy has experienced 17 consecutive calendar quarters of positive growth of real GDP.