For a small, open economy like Sweden the natural starting-point for the forecasting work is how economic activity and inflation develop in the world around us. The forecasting work therefore begins with an international outlook meeting, which has the purpose of reaching a preliminary forecast for international events. Soon after this a financial market meeting is held. At this meeting there is a discussion of market participants’ expectations of the repo rate and how these have changed since the previous monetary policy meeting. These are then compared with the model forecasts for the repo rate and how these have changed. In addition, there are analyses and discussions of what has happened in the financial markets since the previous assessment. House prices, credits, stock market rates, exchange rates, money supply, international rates and so on are also discussed at this meeting. After this a current status meeting is held, where the focus is on the current situation in the Swedish economy. One particularly important aspect is to assess how much of the Swedish economy’s total resources in the form of labour and machinery are currently being used to a normal extent. Apart from new information on the current economic situation, there are also discussions of other new information that may be important for the forecasts in the slightly longer term. The first monetary policy group meeting with the Executive Board summarises new information After this it is time for the first large monetary policy group meeting.
This assurance should also facilitate the further development of the financial sector in these countries, as foreign banks and other financial services providers seek to tap what is soon to become an enlarged market of almost 500 million people, either directly by setting up shop in these countries or indirectly through the cross-border provision of financial services. The advantages for financial stability of a diversified financial structure are well-documented. Suffice it to recall that because different financial market segments react differently to economic shocks, the presence of different types of intermediaries and markets functioning alongside each other should strengthen the financial system’s capacity to absorb liquidity shocks emanating from specific institutions or market segments. For accession countries, the scope for diversification presented by EU membership is significant, not only because the financial sector tends to be small relative to their economic size, but more so because intermediation in these countries is dominated by the banks. In fact, a recent ECB report concludes that the financial sectors of accession countries could assimilate a fifteen-fold increase in absolute 3 terms. Financial integration in the euro area, moreover, may also promote financial stability in the accession countries through the advantages inherent in a single currency area. For a start, the disruption arising from currency risk is eliminated, domestic economies become immune to currency misalignment episodes that disturb trade and currency risk premiums disappear from interest rates.