Specifically, the ASEAN Roadmap on Capital Account Liberalization, launched in 2003, aims to gradually achieve a freer flow of capital over the medium-term. Malaysia has since progressively further liberalised its rules for foreign exchange transactions culminating in the removal of most of the rules in April 2005. Strengthened regional financial cooperation During the 1997/1998 crisis, Asia did not come together to collaboratively and cumulatively act to contain the crisis and subsequently to facilitate its resolution. Perhaps, it was due to the nature of the crisis, its severity on the financial markets and the economies. Domestic stability had to be first restored before time could be taken to formulate a holistic crisis management solution. The instability in the currency markets lasted for about one and a half years. There was also no entity in the region during that period that provided any authoritative assessment on whether the programmes that were subsequently being implemented would in fact produce the desired outcomes. While efforts to strengthen the domestic economies and the financial systems will continue, this has now being reinforced by the improved regional surveillance including on cross border financial flows, and by institutional arrangements that would contribute towards crisis containment and management. The regional cooperative efforts going forward will continue to gain momentum. These efforts should not be seen as attempting to substitute but rather as efforts to complement the existing international arrangements.
The fact is that policy has to be made in ignorance of how the future will turn out, and one has to weigh certain near-term costs against uncertain longer-term gains. Moreover, it seems unlikely that higher interest rates in this country alone would have prevented us experiencing a severe recession. Events in the United States would have proceeded in much the same way, regardless of what the MPC chose to do. And, as we have seen, the downturn has been global in nature, not confined to those economies with overblown financial or housing markets. Would it have helped if our target variable had, say, included a measure of asset prices, particularly house prices? There is certainly a good case for including a measure of owneroccupied housing costs in any consumer price measure, as for many households it represents their largest single expenditure. And, depending on the measure used, that could have resulted in higher inflation figures during the years leading up to the crisis. That does not, however, translate directly into a higher level of Bank Rate. Monetary policy affects inflation with a long and somewhat variable lag and there is little the MPC can do to offset unanticipated movements in near-term inflation. Instead, we have to look at inflation prospects two or three years ahead. But it is in the nature of asset prices, including house  6  BIS Review 31/2010  prices, that one can say rather little about their likely direction of movement that far ahead.