A full normalization of credit demand and supply conditions will have to wait until the dust settles in the international financial scenario, to allow more clarity about global and domestic growth prospects. These risk factors have a direct incidence on credit risk premiums implicit in banking operations. We can see that the monetary policy action has more than offset the increase in risk premiums, resulting in a significant drop in credit costs, thus mitigating the effects that the global crisis has had on our economy. One important aspect of the access to credit, aside from its cost, draws from the effect of the environment of uncertainty and economic weakness on the credit approval conditions and credit demand. In these dimensions, we have recently seen signs of stabilization. Internationally, the various indicators of uncertainty and risk in global financial markets, while remain relatively high, have continued to fall. Domestically, the evidence at hand from the Banking Credit Survey for the second quarter of this year reveals that, on average, banking institutions have already stopped tightening their lending standards and perceive early signs of a recovery of the demand for credit. This is particularly evident in the mortgage segment, suggesting that the levels of the long-term interest rates on these loans are not necessarily holding back the demand for housing credit (figure 5).
Deposit rates dropped significantly at maturities of one year or more, while the rates on our instruments at terms of two or more years, also fell after the announcements. One issue that has been on the table, not only in Chile but in the developed world and a number of emerging economies as well, is precisely the behavior of longer-term interest rates. Unlike those at very short term, which are largely arbitraged by the monetary policy stance, interest rates on long term government bonds are more influenced by, among other factors, the appetite for risk, the evolution of interest rates around the world and the widespread uncertainty prevailing in the economy. This last point is connected with expectations for long-term inflation and growth and fiscal solvency prospects, with particular strength in those economies that have had to embark in costly financial packages and bank bail-out programs, thereby multiplying their levels of public debt. In some emerging economies, and even in some developed ones, this increased debt has spurred doubts about the sustainability of their fiscal accounts and monetary arrangements, questioning their capacity to grow in the coming years. Although luckily, and thanks to the efforts made, the Chilean economy is not in such a situation, the determination of the long-term interest rates does depend indisputably not only on the prospects for growth and inflation – and thus on monetary policy – but also on portfolio decisions of domestic agents and the appetite for risk. Developments early this year are very illustrative.