The economy moves from point B to point C, so employment recovers (to above its pre-crisis equilibrium), but wages continue to fall. BIS central bankers’ speeches  15  Weak wage growth With some additional structure, the simple model above can be used to understand unemployment and wage inflation.23 If wages are adjusted infrequently (ie there is nominal wage stickiness), then the following relation between wage inflation, 𝜋 𝑤 , and unemployment can be derived: 𝑤 𝜋 𝑤 − 𝛽𝐸𝜋+1 = −𝜆𝜑(𝑢 − 𝑢�)  (WPC)  𝑤 captures expected inflation, 𝑢� is the ‘natural’ rate of unemployment (which can where 𝛽𝐸𝜋+1 vary over time) and 𝜆 is a parameter capturing the degree of wage stickiness. Equation (WPC) is the Wage Phillips Curve. For a given natural rate of unemployment, WPC traces out the relationship between wage growth and unemployment. Chart 9 contains a reducedform representation of the WPC, taken from Broadbent (2014). As that chart shows, outturns for wages in 2013 and 2014 were considerably below the past relationship, which would otherwise suggest that unemployment would be expected to be around 10% given the observed decline in wages. In light of equation (WPC), one way to interpret this is as there having been a decline in 𝑢�, the natural rate, such that a given rate of unemployment puts greater downward pressure on wages. Broadbent (2014) discusses Chart 9 further. 23  16  See Gali, J (2011), “The return on the wage Phillips curve”, Journal of the European Economic Association, 9(3), June.
Mark Carney: Prospects for the UK labour market Speech by Mr Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England and Chairman of the Financial Stability Board, at the 146th Annual Trades Union Congress, Liverpool, 9 September 2014. *  *  *  President and Congress. It is a pleasure to be in Liverpool today to discuss the prospects for the UK labour market. The growth and distribution of jobs and incomes matter to everyone. Employment does much more than provide the means to support workers and their families; it is essential to personal fulfilment and human dignity. Part of that dignity is being paid a living wage. Over the past year, the Bank of England has ensured that it pays all of its 3,600 staff at least the living wage. And we have recently brought all our contracted service staff in central London up to the London living wage. We are in the process of our final review. But I can announce today the Bank’s intention to become an accredited Living Wage employer by the time of the next TUC conference. Of course, the Bank of England’s responsibilities for promoting the good of the people of the United Kingdom go much further than being a responsible employer. We manage monetary policy to achieve price stability: low, stable and predictable inflation. And we promote financial stability by regulating and supervising financial institutions as well as by taking targeted actions to insure against unsustainable indebtedness, as we did earlier this year for the housing market.