A crisis of the depth we have now passed through leaves behind feelings of uncertainty regarding the future. Previously-observed relationships have not been able to provide us with the same guidance as before, and moreover it is difficult to know what these deviations from historical patterns will lead to further ahead. The way this situation develops in the future will depend on many different things. If the world economy returns after the recovery to a situation similar to that before the crisis, then countries which have conducted a policy that has helped companies to retain their labour force through the recession will be in a very good position. Companies in these countries will then easily be able to increase production. However, if it turns out that the world demand is for other goods and services than those prior to the crisis, these countries may instead find themselves in a situation where they need to undergo a necessary structural transformation. This could lead to a more protracted period of high unemployment and lower production. In the future, countries like China may account for an increasingly large share of world consumption. If consumption patterns differ in different countries, this could mean that different types of product will be in demand in the future. A deep recession may also affect the internal demand picture within a country permanently, for instance, by individuals changing to more energy-saving and cheaper alternatives.
Firstly, it should be said that it is not possible to point to any individual variable that will alone be a determining factor in an interest rate decision. Prior to each interest rate decision we weigh together all of the new information received since the previous decision. But employment is of course an important element; when, for example, we said in February that economic activity was now on firmer ground one of the things we were referring to was the stronger labour market. It was a contributing factor to the marginal adjustment in the repo rate path we made then; with a first repo rate increase coming slightly sooner than implied in the repo rate path from December. Our most recent repo rate decision entails both the repo rate and the repo rate path being held unchanged. A weaker GDP outcome for the fourth quarter could on its own have been a negative signal and made us more doubtful about the timing of the coming interest rate increase. But we also had surprisingly positive information on the labour market, which provided support for the assumption that the economy is moving in the right direction. Our forecasts are based on employment only increasing at a slow rate in the future and on resource utilisation being lower than normal for the greater part of the forecast period. But the situation is that the crisis has hit the export industry particularly hard, while the services sector has escaped relatively lightly.