According to Statistics Sweden’s first preliminary compilation of the National Accounts for the second quarter of this year, Swedish GDP increased by 1.2 per cent, compared with the first quarter (seasonally-adjusted). This is slightly more than the 0.9 per cent we have assumed in our report, and also slightly more than other forecasters have expected. GDP has thus increased for five quarters in a row and has recovered half of the large fall totalling 8 per cent that took place during the previous five quarters. (Figure: GDP per quarter). The picture of continued good growth is also supported by the National Institute of Economic Research’s Economic Tendency Survey, which was presented at the end of July. Although the indicator fell between June and July this year, the fall was marginal and the indicator still points to the mood among companies and households being much stronger than normal. (Figure: Economic Tendency Survey). The purchasing managers’ index in Sweden rose to 64.2 on the other hand, which can be compared with a figure of 62.4 in the previous month. It was primarily increased orders and production that contributed to the rise. (Figure: Purchasing managers’ index). Moreover, new statistics show that industrial production has continued to increase strongly, and slightly more than market expectations, while the production of services has remained at an almost unchanged level. However, industrial production is still far below the earlier peak levels. (Figure: Industrial and services production). Brighter labour market The recovery in the labour market has also continued.
Since April the IMF has also made an upward adjustment to its forecasts for this year’s global GDP growth. However, the IMF is expecting much higher GDP growth in what is known as the BRIC countries – that is, Brazil, Russia, India and China – than in the more developed countries. (Figure: GDP growth in the BRIC countries). BIS Review 109/2010  1  Growth in Asia was also very strong at the beginning of the year. During the first quarter, the Asian growth economies expanded by the equivalent of an annual growth rate of 10 per cent. It is primarily demand from China that has benefitted other countries in the region. However, new statistics for the second quarter imply that China’s GDP growth has slowed down, compared with the first quarter, which may imply some slowdown in Asia. GDP in Japan was also lower than expected during the second quarter of this year. Growth in the USA slowing down The US economy is also growing at a good rate after the GDP fall in 2009: our latest forecast is that GDP in the United States will increase by 3.2 per cent this year. One reason for this is the strong economic policy stimulation. However, our assessment at the end of June was that growth will slow down somewhat in 2011 and 2012, as the effects of the economic policy stimulation in the United States wane. (Figure: GDP growth in the USA).