(3) Exports of goods and services minus imports of goods and services. Source: Central Bank of Chile. 8  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 6 Output gaps (*) (percent) 6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  -2  -2  -4  -4  -6  -6  08  09  10  11  IPoM Sep.10  IPoM Dec.10  (*) Gray area, as from fourth quarter of 2010, indicates forecast. Source: Central Bank of Chile. Figure 7 Consumer perception index  Labor market (percent, millions of persons)  90  140  70  120  50  100  30  80  10  60  03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 IPEC (1)  U. de Chile (2)  12  7,5  11  7,0  10  6,5  9  6,0  8  5,5  7  5,0  Mar.09 Sep.09 Mar.10 Sep.10 Unemployment rate Employment  (1) IPEC: value above (below) 50 points indicates optimism (pessimism). (2) Index, March 2001 = 100. Sources: Adimark, Central Bank of Chile, National Statistics Institute (INE) and Universidad de Chile.
In multilateral terms, the appreciation has also been smaller, because of the dollar’s loss in value with respect to other currencies; even some currencies of Chile’s trading partners have shown higher bilateral appreciations than the peso (figure 10). Among the long-lasting elements underlying this appreciation, we may highlight improved terms of trade, a better cyclical position of the Chilean economy compared with developed ones, the accumulated increase in the ratio of public expenditure to GDP and the reduction in our net debtor position relative to the rest of the world. In Chile, net capital flows have been limited. We have seen capital inflows as direct foreign investment and placement of bonds abroad by Chilean firms. But at the same time, these inflows have been offset by outflows due to higher investments abroad by residents, including pension funds. Considering the level of the nominal exchange rate and currency parities prevailing at the statistical closing of this IPoM, the real exchange rate (RER) is around its minimum consistent with its long-term fundamentals. The baseline scenario of this IPoM uses as a working assumption that the peso will post a moderate real depreciation into the long-term. Projections also use the assumption that the monetary stimulus will continue to be gradually withdrawn at a pace comparable to what can be inferred from the various expectations surveys (figure 11). The Board hereby states that this will depend, in any case, on the unfolding of domestic and external macroeconomic conditions.