GDP growth rates for most of these economies will likely turn positive in 1999. The outlook for the year 2000 is similarly benign. Indeed, the concern for the Korean economy has even turned into one of over-heating. Asia’s nascent recovery has set it apart from other emerging economies. Discerning international investors are placing much lower risk premiums on Asian economies compared to other emerging economies. For example, the difference between the yields on Latin American and Asian US dollar bonds has risen from less than 100 basis points in August 1998 to around 250 basis points in November 1999.1 The Singapore economy too, has recovered strongly, rising together with the regional economies. GDP grew by an estimated 5.6% last year, compared to 0.3% in 1998. This year, we expect the momentum to be sustained, with GDP growth at around 4.5-6.5%. But we cannot be complacent. To ensure that Singapore continues to prosper, we need to remain competitive, regionally and globally. Global markets have become much more integrated and global competition has intensified. We need to be part of this globalisation process and not close our doors to it. This is why we have been gradually introducing more competition into previously protected sectors of the economy, such as the financial sector and the telecommunications sector. These are challenging times ahead for us. But as economic recovery gathers pace, it is easy for euphoria to overtake the need for improvement and change. It could also tempt us to scale back or postpone painful restructuring initiatives.
Mr Lim gives a policymaker’s perspective on the role of macroeconomic modelling in public policy  Opening remarks by Mr Lim Hng Kiang, Member of the Board of Directors of The Monetary Authority of Singapore and Minister for Health and Second Minister for Finance, at the launch of The Monetary Authority of Singapore’s new macroeconometric model of the Singapore economy, the Monetary Model of Singapore (MMS) on 2 February 2000. *  *  *  Introduction It is my pleasure to be here today. This conference provides an excellent opportunity for networking and the exchange of ideas between policymakers, private sector economists as well as academics. Last July, at the Far Eastern Meeting of the Econometric Society in Singapore, I mentioned that the Economics Department of MAS was working on a new macroeconometric model of the Singapore economy, the Monetary Model of Singapore. This model incorporates the latest techniques and thinking in modelling. I am glad that the development work is completed and the model is now ready to be used for policy work. The staff of the Economics Department will be presenting the details of the model later this morning for review and discussion. Post-Asian crisis: a time for reflection The economic outlook for Asia has turned positive. Memories of the Asian financial crisis and of the economic recession that followed have already started to fade. The crisis Asian economies are recovering - we see production, exports and consumption growth rebounding, some even surpassing pre-crisis levels.