It has not yet been established what kind of transition scenario we would have in Sweden. Nor is it yet clear how much time would be required, partly because the political process has not yet chosen a transition scenario and partly because changes are constantly being made in operations and IT systems that affect the time required for a potential transition. Examples of measures that reduce the time required for a potential membership are that IT systems that are being modernised for other reasons are designed to also process euros. Within the Riksbank we are working on reducing the length of time calculated as necessary for the production of Swedish euro coins. The result of our preparations and those of the financial sector are reported, as I mentioned earlier, in regular progress reports. Number 8 will be published in May. Conclusion In the event of a "yes" in a Swedish referendum on full participation in the third stage of the EMU, the whole of society needs to prepare for a cash changeover, and many decisions need to be taken as to how we shall proceed. In this situation Sweden would be under slightly different conditions than the current euro countries, as euro banknotes and coins already exist in the market. This is a circumstance that we must take into account in our planning, but despite this we will have considerable assistance from the fact that twelve countries have already implemented an introduction of the euro. We all have a lot to learn from studying their methods.
Chart 4: Global economic policy uncertainty reached record highs Index 375 350 325 300 275 250 225 200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 2019  US implements first China-specific tariffs Iraq invasion 9/11  1999  2001  London bombings Ukraine / ISIS  Madrid Transatlantic bombings aircraft plot  USS Cole bombings  1997  Paris attacks  2003  2005  2007  2009  2011  2013  2015  2017  Source: Baker, S, Bloom, N and Davis, S (2015), “Measuring economic policy uncertainty”, NBER Working Paper No. 21633. 5  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/news/speeches  5  Chart 5: Expected corporate earnings growth expectations sharply lower Expected growth in earnings per share in 2019 Indices: 02 Jul 2018 = 100 140 120 100 80  S&P 500 FTSE All-share  60  Euro Stoxx  40  MSCI EM  20 0  Jul. 18  Sep. 18  Nov. 18  Jan. 19  Mar. 19  May. 19  Sources: Eikon from Refinitiv and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Chart 6a: Global business confidence down Differences from averages since 1999 2.0 (number of standard deviations)  Median  1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 G7 swathe -1.0 Jan. 16  Jul. 16  Jan. 17  Jul. 17  Jan. 18  Jul. 18  Jan. 19  Sources: OECD Business Confidence Indicator and Bank calculations.