It is always easy to know how one should have acted afterwards, when the result is a fact. The interesting part of an assessment is whether our decisions are understandable in the light of the picture available at the time the decision was made. When we analyse this question, we can conclude that we have acted consistently on the basis of the inflation forecasts we made, much as we usually do. A further question is how good we are at making forecasts. The accuracy of the forecasts for price trends as a whole in 2003, which were made during the two preceding years, appears relatively good. However, the general assessment hides a number of large forecast errors for individual components. For instance, domestic inflation was underestimated, while international prices and imported inflation were overestimated. We thus have some work left to do to achieve better precision in the individual components that are important to the total assessment. Despite this, I can observe that our inflation forecasts for 2003 were slightly better than the average of other forecasters. Some concluding reflections Let me now, in conclusion, emphasise a couple of issues connected with the present decision-making situation. As I have already mentioned, economic activity has essentially followed the paths we have been anticipating since early last autumn. On the other hand, new information has been received, which indicates lower price and cost pressure. This information concerns international prices, productivity in Sweden, the labour market situation and wage costs as well as inflation outcomes and expectations.
Denny H Kalyalya: Expansion of Zambia’s banking sector Remarks by Dr Denny H Kalyalya, Deputy Governor-Operations of the Bank of Zambia; at the official opening of Bank of China’s new premises, Lusaka, 9 December 2008. *  *  *  • Honourable Minister of Finance and National Planning, Dr. Situmbeko Musokotwane, MP; • His Excellency – the Chinese Ambassador to the Republic of Zambia; Mr. Li Qiangmin; • Managing Director of the Bank of China (Zambia) Limited; Mr Du Qiang; • Distinguished Invited Guests; • Ladies and Gentlemen. I am greatly honoured for having been invited to speak on the occasion of the official opening ceremony of Bank of China’s new premises. Ladies and Gentlemen As part of the on-going Zambia-Chinese relationship, the Bank of China was established in 1997. Since then the Bank has recorded tremendous progress. Distinguished Invited Guests During the past 8 years, the overall financial performance and condition of the banking sector has been satisfactory. The sector has continued to expand and we anticipate increased economic and investment activity in the period ahead. Banks are expected to continue to provide the required level of finance to consolidate the economic gains registered so far. The Bank has achieved tremendous growth since its inception in 1997. During the last eleven years, total assets have increased by 325% to K507.9 billion in October 2008 from K13.8 billion in December 1997. Regulatory capital increased by about 1,000% to K41.9 billion in October 2008 from K3.8 billion December 1997.