Chart 1  300  300 Projections  250  250  200  200  150  150  100  100  50  50  0  0  1970  1980 1990 2000 2010 2020  2030  Source: NB 2000 Legg inn filadresse her  Chart 2 Export value of oil as a share of total exports excluding ships and oil rigs. Per cent 50  50  40  40  30  30  20  20  10  10  0  0 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99  Source: Norges Bank Legg inn filadresse her  BIS Review 121/1999  2  Chart 3 Government net cash flow from the petroleum sector as a share of GDP. Per cent 10  10  8  8 Projections  6  6  4  4  2  2  0  0  1980  1990  2000  2010  2020  2030  Source: NB 2000 and Norges Bank Legg inn filadresse her  Chart 4 Government budget surplus and Petroleum Fund surplus. In billions of NOK Ex.
Focusing on the last 15 years, somewhat larger fluctuations have been observed since 1997. In 1998 the price of oil dropped temporarily below $ per barrel. This year the price has increased substantially above the $ to $ a barrel price range that we consider a more “normal” level. 4. Fluctuating oil prices and economic stability: Dutch disease and the Government Petroleum Fund  Oil revenues increase consumption possibilities. However, it is a challenge to manage these resources in a way that increases welfare for current and future generations. A rapid expansion of the sheltered sector based on uncertain and perhaps temporary increases in petroleum revenues may lead to the situation called Dutch disease. The impact of oil price fluctuations on the exchange rate and on economic stability in general will depend on the speed at which petroleum revenues are used. In general, income can either be used now, or saved by accumulating assets abroad, so as to redistribute the increased income and thus consumption between generations. The income can be used to increase net imports while resources BIS Review 121/1999  4  from the internationally exposed sector are transferred to the sheltered sector. This will allow for increased consumption of both exposed and sheltered sector goods. If petroleum revenues are to be used for increased sheltered goods consumption, a real exchange rate appreciation will be needed to initiate the reallocation of resources to the sheltered sector.