Foreseeably, demographic changes will affect consumption and saving patterns and tend to reduce productivity growth. This is why I must stress that addressing the population challenge calls for the adoption of a multidisciplinary strategy. Among other aspects, this strategy must encourage the participation of older workers, tailor migratory policy to labour market needs and boost the birth rate. In this scenario, education and vocational training policies are crucial. 8/18  Fourthly, the unemployment rate remains very high (14.7% in 2019 Q1), despite the fact that since the onset of the recovery almost 2.5 million jobs have been created. Moreover, around 45% of the unemployed have been looking for a job for a year or more. Improving the employability of the most vulnerable groups – namely youths and elderly workers, in particular the least skilled – is essential to reduce this scourge and thus help correct the strong rise in wage inequality that stemmed from the crisis. In this respect, it would be desirable to improve the human capital of the least skilled unemployed and to align job training measures to employers’ demands. These measures should be structured to fit others aimed at reducing the high temporary employment ratio, in light of its negative influence on human capital accumulation – to which I shall refer later – and, once again, on inequality. Indeed, despite trending more favourably over the past year, the temporary employment ratio stood in 2019 Q1 at almost 26%, far above that in other European countries.
In New Jersey, private-sector job growth was quite robust in the fourth quarter, despite a small dip in December. New York State, in contrast, slowed more in December and has seen only minimal job gains since we last met in August. 2  For more information, see Indexes of Coincident Economic Indicators on the New York Fed website. BIS central bankers’ speeches  3  Job growth in the region no longer appears to be out-performing the nation, and regional unemployment rates remain unacceptably high: at around 9 percent in both New York City and New Jersey, and close to 8 percent across New York State. Turning to New York City, the local job market, which had been quite resilient during and after the recession, has lagged recently – partly reflecting weakness in the city’s securities industry. Still, the Big Apple has recovered over half of the jobs lost during the recession, whereas the nation has recouped only about a third of its job losses thus far. Despite recent weakness in the securities industry, other industries, such as tourism, and professional and business services, have fared reasonably well in the City. Weakness in financial activities industry – and securities in particular – is worrisome because this sector has tended to drive overall local growth and provide a major source of tax revenue for the city and the state. The New York Fed also conducts the Empire State Manufacturing Survey to track conditions for regional manufacturers.