Thus, GDP will grow in the 5.5%–6.5% range in 2011, with a smaller contribution of supplyside sectors – i.e., fishing, mining and hydroelectric generation – than foreseen in the latest IPoM, while the other sectors will converge to trend growth as the monetary and external impulses are normalized (table 2). Prospects for trend growth are similar to September’s, that is, around 5%. In this scenario, which also features improved terms of trade, the current account of the balance of payments will post a surplus of 0.3% of GDP in 2010, contrasting with the deficit forecast in September, owing mainly to better export prices. However, estimations yield that in 2011 the current account will reach a deficit of 1.4% of GDP. Y-o-y headline inflation has remained in the lower zone of the tolerance range, while the core measure CPIX1 is still in negative territory. This low core inflation has been partly offset by increases in the prices of foodstuffs, both perishable and non-perishable and, most recently, by increased fuel prices (figure 8). Since last July, there has been a renewed, markedly ascending trend in food prices in the global market. Given the experience of 2008, it has become again cause for concern for policy-makers in some countries. As shown in a box in our IPoM, in Chile a little more than one percentage point of inflation is due to food prices. Until now, the recovery of margins in the aftermath of the crisis has allowed cushioning the local inflationary effects of world price increases.
BIS central bankers’ speeches  5  Figure 1  World output (*) (index, second quarter 2007=100)  Unemployment rate (*) (percent)  120  120 10  10  110  110  8  8  6  6  4  4  2  2  100  100  90  90  07  08  09  10  08  Jul. 09  Jul. 10  Jul. Emerging economies  Developed economies  (1) Regions weighted at PPP. Developed economies include: Australia, Canada, the Eurozone, Japan, Sweden, Switzerland, the U.K. and the U.S. Emerging economies includes: Argentina, Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Hong Kong, India Indonesia, Israel, Malaysia, Mexico, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Venezuela. (2) Regions weighted at PPP. Developed economies include: Canada, the Eurozone, Japan, the U.K. and the U.S. Emerging economies include: Brazil, Mexico, South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan. Sources: Central Bank of Chile based on Bloomberg, OECD and each country's statistics offices, and U.S. Federal Reserve.