Boris Vujčić: Macroeconomic developments and structural issues in CEE countries Speech by Mr Boris Vujčić, Governor of the Croatian National Bank, at the Roundtable on Macroeconomic Developments of the 16+1 Economies, Magyar Nemzeti Bank (the central bank of Hungary), Budapest, 9 November 2018. * * * Accompanying slides of the presentation. Economic expansion in the CEE region can be expected to continue in the near term supported by still favourable cyclical conditions. However, in many countries pace of growth might moderate, partly due to supply side constraints and maturing business cycles. Potential growth estimates indicate that in all countries output gaps are positive or have been closed, and unemployment rates are close or below pre-crisis levels, pushing-up the wage growth. While such a positive outlook for future growth is somewhat disturbed by rising risks to the global economy, such as escalation of trade tensions or tightening of financial conditions, CEE countries seem to be in a generally good shape to withstand the impact of negative shocks. Current account positions have improved and in many countries turned into surplus, while international liquidity positions are ample. Also, economic recovery coupled with efforts to push through fiscal adjustment programs led to improvement of general government balance and public debt was put on a declining path. Furthermore, financial systems in most countries remain robust and resilient, as attested by withstanding the shocks emanating from the global financial crisis and the European sovereign debt crisis.
8  All speeches are available online at www.bankofengland.co.uk/speeches  8  I noted above that changes in the world of work have very possibly changed the pricing power of labour and workers’ appetite for risk (i.e. job insecurity). This is in itself a large area of current debate and I do not want here to go into these in great detail. 18  Some of these important changes in the structure of the labour market, such as the rise in self-employment and decline in union membership, predated the financial crisis. Others, like the rise in temporary work and zero hours contracts, are more recent. Technology – and the rise of the gig economy – has further increased what my colleague Andy Haldane has called the ‘divisibility’ of labour. The impact of the financial crisis and subsequent recession itself may also have changed workers appetite for risk. Anecdotally this is certainly true; I have lost count of the number times in the last four years, when the discussion on regional visits has turned to pressure for pay increases that I have heard the explanation that workers were “happy just having a job”. This may well be more than anecdote. There is literature on the Great Depression that identifies the lifetime effects on the so called ‘depression babies’ and their attitude to risk.