Growth momentum from the private sector has picked up more firmly, making it possible for the Government to begin moving toward fiscal consolidation to ensure medium-term fiscal sustainability. According to current estimates, effective tax collection together with the economic expansion could allow the Government to achieve a balanced budget a couple of years earlier than planned. It is therefore clear that the thrust of growth has now been shifted from the fiscal sector to private hands, with export also contributing in a very significant manner. This is a much welcome development, as sustainable growth cannot rest forever on the shoulder of the government who makes up only about 15 percent of the country’s GDP. Ladies and gentlemen, The key drivers of the current recovery, as you know, have been the strong performance of export and private consumption. Export of goods broke its highest record in May this year at 6.5 billion US dollars and has since remained at the monthly average of 6.4 billion US dollars, with the average monthly export growth of around 12 percent year-on-year. BIS Review 46/2003  1  To many, this is a pleasant surprise given the export performance of other regional countries of late. It owes partly to the diversification of Thai export, both in terms of product type and market destination. In particular, our export is not concentrated in just one or two commodities but rather well balanced between agricultural, agro-industrial, and manufactured goods.
That said, the studies that do exist tentatively support the conclusion that macro-prudential policy can be effective in the euro area. Assetside measures like LTV, LTI and DTI in particular have been found to be effective in dampening real estate booms. 10 As this was the sector at the heart of the crisis in several euro area countries, this is encouraging. Further research in this area is essential to help us better understand the impact and transmission channels of macro-prudential policies. Questions of effectiveness aside, where the SSM represents a major step forward in macroprudential policy, is in creating some centralisation of macro-prudential decision-making. The SSM Regulation gives the ECB the power to apply stricter macro-prudential measures than national authorities if it deems necessary. This allows us to take an integrated view of macroprudential policy – spillovers, arbitrage effects – and provides a safeguard against inaction bias at the national level. Moreover, the important role of the ECB Governing Council in macro-prudential decisionmaking allows for interactions between monetary policy and macro-prudential policy to be internalised and synergies to be exploited. To give just one example, several of the nonstandard measures we have adopted during the crisis, such as changes in collateral haircuts or reserve requirements, might in certain cases overlap with macro-prudential measures like liquidity ratios and margin requirements. This suggests that macro-prudential policies can support us in fulfilling our mandate. Conclusion Let me conclude. Since the launch of the euro, we have become more interconnected.