It is difficult to know how quickly this type of measure can have  BIS Review 101/2006  5  an effect, or how substantial the effect will be. There is thus considerable uncertainty in assessments of this nature. The overall assessment we make today is that the new government’s economic policy will have an impact on both supply and demand in the economy, but that the effects on inflation will overall be slight. However, we will have to follow developments closely and regularly evaluate our forecasts. In short, just as we always do. Summary Let me in conclusion summarise the most important points I have taken up today. My main message from the backward glance is as follows: •  The changeover in economic policy that began almost one and a half decades ago has given good results. •  In an efficiently function regime inflation will from time to time deviate somewhat from the target. One reason is that various changes in the economy occur now and then, as they have done in recent years, and the effects of these can be difficult to predict. With regard to future developments, my most important points can be summarised as follows (Figure 15): •  The prospects for the Swedish economy look favourable. We are expecting growth to be good during the forecast period and the labour market situation to continue improving.
The part of the project which is quasi-consensual, with strong use-cases, is the one which raises little public interest – which does not mean that it is not key: wholesale CBDC. I will come back to this later. But let me start with the other face of the CBDC mountain: retail CBDC; this one, by contrast, is the focus of both public excitement and private questions. I. A ‘retail’ CBDC for a renewed intermediation in the digital age Let me suggest three hopefully shared principles to climb together this face of the mountain. 1. Our means of payment are and must remain a partnership between central bank money and commercial bank money  Page 2 sur 7 Until now, the coexistence and partnership of central bank and commercial bank money has structured the retail payment landscape and preserved the stability of the monetary system. Their respective roles are clearly assigned: central bank money anchors the stability of the financial system while the multiplicity of issuers of commercial bank money preserves competition and innovation. Their interplay and their interchangeability at par value ensures the safety and efficiency of the monetary and financial system. Neither one is better than the other, but in a joint venture each partner needs the other: a digital euro should never mean disappearance of commercial  bank money; conversely,  digitalisation cannot mean the disappearance of central bank money. Indeed these foundations – and especially the role of central bank money – are increasingly threatened by the digital revolution of the financial sector.