Lowering the limit to 80 per cent would lead, over a 10-year period, to about the same effect as the proposed amortisation requirement, and even lowering it to 75 per cent would result in a smaller effect looking 10 years ahead than a debt-to-income limit of 600 per cent. It is clear from what I have said so far that it is hard to find an individual measure which could prevent indebtedness from increasing from a 10-year perspective. A combination of measures may therefore be needed. One example of a “package of measures”, which I have discussed on previous occasions, includes an amortisation requirement, halved tax relief and a debt-to-income limit of 400 per cent. A summary of the effects of these measures offers a very rough estimate of the total effect, and indicates in this case that indebtedness would level out to around the level seen today (see Figure 14).
Figure 11 Household debt as a percentage of disposable income Per cent 220  220 Scenario without measures  210  210  200  200  190  190  180  180  170  170  160  160  150  150  140  140  130  130 05  10  15  20  25  Note. Broken red line shows an estimate of developments over the next 10 years without further measures. Shaded area indicates a feasible lower limit for when the risks are elevated in the economy. Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank. We have also developed examples to broadly assess how different measures influence the development of household indebtedness, which can then illustrate what is required to help this indebtedness level out. Finansinspektionen’s proposal in the spring of an amortisation requirement means that new mortgage borrowers with loan-to-value ratios above 50 per cent must amortise 2 per cent of the loan per year down to 70 per cent, and then 1 per cent per year down to 50 per cent. 17  It is assumed in the debt forecast that rising interest rates between 2018–2025 will contribute to housing prices rising at a slower pace than the period 2005–2015. The development of housing prices is determined by a model in which price developments are determined in the long term by developments in households’ financial assets, disposable income and mortgage rates after tax. Debts are assumed to follow housing prices.