Poland and Hungary stand at around 67 percent (both posting values of no more than 45 percent in 2000), Czechia at 86 percent (from 61 percent in 2000) and Bulgaria at 47 percent (against 24 percent in 2000). As a matter of fact, Romania boasts the fastest growth rate in the group of peer countries with similar trends. Can we, therefore, say that this is proof of a successful catching-up in real terms? Furthermore, can we claim that having a flexible policy framework (including a managed floating exchange rate) helped us in this respect? Allow me to assert that more time is needed in order for these questions to be appropriately answered. However, a general remark can be made: the EU and NATO anchors helped us all make progress as concerns real convergence. The second lesson derives from the answer to the following question: did the strategic decisions on the exchange rate regime and monetary policy framework matter? It is known that some countries in the region (Romania, Poland, Czechia, Hungary) opted for flexible exchange rate arrangements and adopted inflation targeting, while others (Bulgaria and the Baltic states) resorted to a fixed exchange rate regime under a currency board. At first sight, it seems that the latter group of countries are better prepared in terms of euro adoption (the Baltic states have already taken this step but they, being much smaller and more open economies, are a special case), given the fiscal discipline pursued and the nominal convergence stage in those economies.
2/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  While this could be in itself regarded as a lesson, I will go further and add that the recent views expressed by policymakers in Hungary and Poland appear to favour the idea that euro area membership contains the room for growth. A number of public statements are relevant in this respect. The Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, said in April 2013 that “Hungary cannot seriously consider joining the euro zone until the country’s average economic development reaches 90 percent of the level of euro states”. Poland’s former central bank governor Marek Belka stated in 2015: “You shouldn’t rush when there is still smoke coming from a house that was burning… As long as the eurozone has problems with some of its own members, don’t expect us to be enthusiastic about joining”. His successor at the helm of the monetary authority in Poland, Adam Glapiński, said that – and I quote – “We will not give up on the zloty (currency), because it will dramatically limit growth opportunities for the Polish economy”. Back in 2001, Leszek Balcerowicz noted that structural reforms are those that harmonise nominal and real convergence, as there are also unavoidable tensions between the two. The more comprehensive the structural reforms, the less costly the disinflation and the more robust the economic growth over the long term.