Various investment activity and business sentiment indicators show mixed dynamics. In particular, new (especially, export) order expectations in industry remain low. This reflects a slowdown in global economic growth, continuing global trade tensions and geopolitical risks. These are all restraining factors for our economy. Regarding the three-year forecast horizon, our expectations here have not changed overall since October. We expect that the GDP growth rate will gradually increase to 1.5–2.0% in 2020 and to 2–3% in 2022. Successful implementation of national projects should provide the largest contribution to the increase in growth rates. This will support internal demand while external conditions remain a factor of uncertainty in the forecast. As regards oil prices. Last week, the OPEC+ countries reached a deal to extend oil production cuts until the end of March 2020.As of now, we stick to a conservative assumption for oil prices in our forecast: their reduction to 55 US dollars per barrel in 2020 and to 50 US dollars per barrel in 2021 and further on. We will adjust this opinion depending on, among other factors, future changes in the OPEC+ agreements and global demand for energy commodities. As to the balance of payments, we have slightly adjusted some indicators for this year, taking into account the actual data available. Let me remind you that the current account balance will 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  gradually decrease over the forecast horizon remaining sustainably positive: approximately to 3% of GDP in 2020 and to 1–2% of GDP in 2021.
In the light of higher price and cost inflation in Norway than in other countries, it has been appropriate to maintain higher interest rates in Norway than in most comparable countries. Norges Bank increased the sight deposit rate - which is our key rate - by a total of 1½ percentage points last year. So far this year, the key rate has remained  1  2  The relationship between wage growth and price inflation was also discussed in the Annual Address in February this year. BIS Review 72/2001  unchanged. As a result, the difference between short-term rates in Norway and other countries has increased. The economic outlook The Bank last analysed the outlook for the Norwegian economy in the June 2001 Inflation Report. Price inflation is projected to fall to 2½ per cent by next year already. The risk picture is mixed. The Norwegian economy is still characterised by high capacity utilisation. The labour market is tight. There is a risk that domestic pressures may gradually translate into a stronger price impetus than we have projected. The consumer price index has risen by 2.7 per cent since July 2000. The consumer price index excluding the direct effects of changes in excise duties and energy prices (CPIXE) has risen by 2.6 per cent since July last year, as calculated by Norges Bank. Statistics Norway publishes a consumer price index excluding electricity prices and a consumer price index excluding energy prices. They have a broader definition of energy prices than we use in our calculations.