If we calibrate that using multipliers from the Bank’s model, cumulative recession probabilities would rise from around 45% to around 65% at a 3-year horizon. These ready-reckoners are, if anything, likely to understate the behavioural impact of a tightening in a nerve-frazzled environment. This suggests that a policy of early lift-off could be self-defeating. It would risk generating the very recession today it was seeking to insure against tomorrow. In that sense, the low current levels of interest rates are a self-sustaining equilibrium: moving them higher today would run the risk of a reversal tomorrow. These self-reinforcing tendencies explain why the glue sticking interest rates to their floor has been so powerful. Taking these risks together, my judgement on the appropriate monetary stance in the UK is relatively little altered from earlier in the year. The current level of interest rates remains, in my view, appropriate to assure the on-going recovery and to insure against potential downside risks to demand and inflation. Looking ahead, I have no bias on either the size or direction of future interest rate moves. Conclusion In Stuck, the boy’s attempts to unstick his kite from the tree come, well, unstuck. The cat, the gorilla and the ocean-liner, along with assorted other objects, get stuck up the tree too. In  10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  trying too hard to unstick his kite, the boy makes a difficult situation worse. Eventually, with the passage of time, the kite comes free of its own accord.
The education and training sector will play a critical role both in developing entrepreneurial mindsets and in equipping future entrepreneurs with the skills necessary to successfully position new enterprises and manage their development and growth. Ladies and Gentlemen, it is a fact that a thriving entrepreneurial culture has the potential to make a substantial contribution to our economic and social development and to achieving a balanced economic growth. The key therefore, is for businesses to be innovative and competitive at all times. To achieve this we need to develop outstanding young men and women who can be leaders in their fields and who are ambitious with a mindset to be successful and to compete at the highest level. Mr Chairman, I have no doubt that awards like yours can be hugely influential in fuelling the entrepreneurial urge and in inspiring youths to emulate the achievements of those whose enterprising dreams will be rewarded this evening. The award will also be key in raising public awareness on the need for continuous innovation among our youths. As you are aware, the engine of the fast growing economies such as China and India is the innovation and creativity of the young entrepreneurs in those economies. It is incumbent upon us therefore to also encourage our youths to take up their rightful place and contribute to the country’s development.