Unnecessary fluctuations in the real economy can then be avoided. As I  BIS Review 98/2000  4  mentioned earlier, the Riksbank has therefore clarified that if higher or lower inflation is judged to be a transitory phenomenon, attempts to counter it immediately and fully are sometimes not desirable. From these clarifications it will be clear that in the conduct of monetary policy we do in fact also take the real economic consequences directly into account. It should be underscored, however, that making allowances of this kind does presuppose a basic confidence in monetary policy - that different economic agents count on our fulfilling the inflation target, if not immediately then at least in the near future. There has been a discussion recently, among economists as well as in the public debate, as to whether the interest rate should be raised already even though a threat to the inflation target is not apparent in the coming two years. In that way we could avoid a build-up of imbalances that in the longer run might necessitate a drastic repo rate increase and thereby expose the real economy to major strains. I have no objections to this view in principle. We can indeed take such matters into account in our intellectual framework. It is important, however, to be clear about which imbalances one is referring to and what real economic effects they might have.
The latest business surveys and economic data point towards some moderation of late, which is 1/4  BIS central bankers' speeches  not specific to France but also seen in other euro area economies. GDP growth in the first quarter could thus prove somewhat softer than previously anticipated. However, the underlying momentum remains solid and broad-based, and we interpret recent data as reflecting a temporary pull-back from the very strong and above-trend pace recorded in the second half of last year. It does not alter the inflation outlook over the medium term horizon that is relevant for our monetary policy. [slide 6] Against this backdrop, we forecast GDP growth in France to remain robust in 2018, at 1.9%, after 2.0% in 2017, and to stabilize at around 1.6%-1.7% per year in 2019–20, which would remain above potential. Thanks to this performance, the output gap is expected to close in 2019. The engines of growth should be more balanced. Household consumption is expected to accelerate somewhat, with significant gains in the purchasing power of households of + 1.5% to 2% per annum. In particular, the tax measures set out in the budget laws should help to boost household income from the end of 2018. Total investment should lose some momentum but remain a significant contributor to output growth. And as exports pick up, the contribution of external trade should turn neutral. [slide 7] The performance on the labour market has been very encouraging as well.