This is very much work in progress, with the aim of helping the MPC to form judgements both about the most likely outturns and the uncertainty surrounding them. Handling uncertainty and disagreement Even armed with a range of economic models to aid structured discussion and enforce a degree of intellectual discipline, how is it possible for a group of nine individually accountable economists to reach sufficient agreement to publish a forecast which is described as reflecting their best collective judgement? An important part of the answer lies in the use of formal techniques to capture uncertainty and risk. These antedate the MPC. The Bank of England started publishing fan charts for its inflation projections in February 1996, following an early experiment with what might be called ‘trumpet charts’.7 The motivation was purely to illustrate the uncertainty inherent in all economic projections. While trumpets consisted of a single shaded area around a central projection, corresponding to average absolute forecast errors (see Chart 1), fan charts (see Chart 2) were graduated to show the full distribution of possible outcomes.8 Chart 1. November 1995 RPIX inflation projection – symmetric error bands  Chart 2. February 1996 projection – fan chart  RPIX  inflation  6  Ashley, J, Driver, R, Hayes S and Jeffrey, C (2005) ‘Dealing with data uncertainty’ Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin Winter 2005, published on 14 March 2005. 7  I am indebted to Mark Allan and James Bell for this nice descriptor.
The same focus is required for our reports, where even footnotes contain important data that 2/3  BIS central bankers' speeches  ensure analytical and studious rather than only informative reporting. Accurately and precisely communicated or analyzed data is crucial for timely and professional information to the public. Unfortunately, even unintentionally inaccurate or incomplete communication or analysis of central bank data and views, especially in times when the information/news are transmitted at the speed of light, can create undesired environment for the economy, especially if it creates an unreasonable panic among the public. Comprehensive and thorough communication requires understanding of many methodological aspects, information and data that the NBRM uses, and which we feel obliged to supply you with through our communication. Among other things, guided by our firm commitment to social responsibility, for several years now we have hosted this workshop, which becomes a tradition. This year’s workshop has a different format, which is the result of our attempt to follow your interest, as well as your recommendations expressed during the successful cooperation so far. It will be focused on two very important, but so far insufficiently covered topics – the Lending Survey and the profitability of the banking sector.