Figure 4  10  CPIEFE inflation (2) (annual change, percentage) 10  10  8  8  8  8  6  6  6  6  4  4  4  4  2  2  2  2  0  0  0  0  -2  -2  -2  -2  -4  -4  -4  -4  10  CPI inflation (1)(2) (annual change, percentage)  07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14  07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14  MP Report Sep.2012  MP Report Dec.2012  (1) December 2012 figure uses median of monthly inflation forecast in the EES. (2) Gray area, as from the fourth quarter of 2012, shows forecast. Sources: Central Bank of Chile and National Statistics Institute (INE). 10  BIS central bankers’ speeches  Figure 5 MPR and expectations (percentage) 9  9  8  8  7  7  6  6  5  5  4  4  3  3  2  2  1  1  0  0 07  08  09  10  FBS first half December 2012  11  12  13  14  EES December 2012  MPR  Source: Central Bank of Chile.
“Smooth Landing or Crash? Model Based Scenarios of Global Current Account Rebalancing”, NBER Working Paper 11583; O. Blanchard et al. „The U.S. Current Account and the Dollar”, NBER Working Paper 11137 and many others. 4  BIS Review 19/2006  thanks to the intensified scale of those phenomena and thanks to including an increasing number of countries into the international economic processes. Taking into consideration the labour market, it may be observed that the inclusion of the CEE countries as well as the former Soviet Union countries, India, China, and other developing countries resulted in an increase in the global labour supply of 2 billion workers. Thus, we are witnesses to the establishment of the global labour market. Actions of international corporations undertaken to relocate manufacturing or orders to countries with lower manufacturing costs simply make use of the existing comparative advantages. The foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow between 1990 and 2004 increased more than threefold, amounting to ca. USD 648 billion in 2004. In the same period, the FDI inflow to developing countries was six times higher and in 2004 it amounted to USD 233 billion 17 . A significant factor contributing to intensification of the above phenomena is trade liberalisation, which involves reduction or elimination of customs tariff rates and all other non-tariff barriers that increase the costs of trade. Studies undertaken so far 18 point to a significant role of preferential trade agreements, which in the years 1993-1997 involved about 70% of all trade exchange of West European countries.