"Economist Arthur Okun said yesterday that while the worst recession since the 1930s is not over for the United States, the ?ÛÏspeed oi' decline is moderating?Û? and lower interest rates should remain stable for a long period of time.</br></br>Addressing stockholders and officers of American Security & Trust Co. at the Washington bank?Ûªs annual meeting, Okun said there are no signs yet that an economic upturn is beginning.</br></br>But the ?ÛÏmost drastic plunge?Û? in economic activity since the Depression is behind us, Okun said, and the automobile and housing industries"" have reached a bottom from which some recovery is possible?ÛÓperhaps by late this year.</br></br>There are remaining sectors about which government leaders should be concerned, Okun said, such as capital goods spending and construction which held up while most of the industry was in depression.</br></br>The possibility of corporate insolvencies cannot be ruled out, he added, and any hopes for recovery must be keyed to consumer spending ?ÛÓafter a tax cut?ÛÓand a homebuilding revival."