What is Hans Reiser&#39;s earliest release date?
<p>This question is about <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hans_Reiser" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Hans Reiser</a>, a well known software developer who murdered his wife and is currently serving his prison term for that.</p>

<p>His case has drawn significant media attention, mainly because there wasn't a body. It is still exceptional in the sense that he was convicted without the body of his wife having been found, which is nearly impossible in Californian criminal law.</p>

<p>He was arrested in Oct, 2006 and was convicted on first-degree murder on April 28, 2008 for 25 years to life. Later, as a result of a plea bargain, this was reduced to second degree murder and to 15 to life. As the result of the plea bargain, he can't appeal his conviction or sentence.</p>

<p>He was sentenced under California Law, and sits since his arrest in different Californian state prisons.</p>

<ul>
<li>In some countries, if a convict has a good behavior, a part of his term can be reduced, typically 1/4 or 1/5. Can it happen in California, in his case?</li>
<li>The 15 years are counted from his arrest, or from his conviction?</li>
<li>In what circumstances could he ever be released? As I understood, "15 to life" means essentially a lifelong prison term, with the possibility of release after at least 15 served years. Which depends on what? Who decides it?</li>
</ul>

<p>According to an article on SFGATE.com:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>There is no guarantee Reiser will ever be a free man again, Goodman
  pointed out. The state Board of Prison Terms must determine whether he
  is eligible for release. The earliest he can go before the board is
  2021.</p>
</blockquote>

<p><em><a href="http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/Reiser-confesses-to-strangling-estranged-wife-3197731.php" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Reiser confesses to strangling estranged wife</a>, August 30, 2008</em></p>

<p>So, to answer the questions:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p><em>In some countries, if a convict has a good behavior, a part of his
  term can be reduced, typically 1/4 or 1/5. Can it happen in
  California, in his case?</em></p>
</blockquote>

<p>No, there is no such rule in California (nor in most other US states, AFAIK). The 15 years minimum must elapse first.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p><em>The 15 years are counted from his arrest, or from his conviction?</em></p>
</blockquote>

<p>From his arrest. He was arrested in 2006, thus the earliest possible release in 2021 = 2006 + 15.</p>

<blockquote>
  <p><em>In what circumstances could he ever be released? As I understood, "15
  to life" means essentially a lifelong prison term, with the
  possibility of release after at least 15 served years. Which depends
  on what? Who decides it?</em></p>
</blockquote>

<p>This depends on the state. In California, this is handled by the <a href="http://www.cdcr.ca.gov/parole/" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Division of Adult Parole Operations</a>, a division of the California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation.</p>

<p>Reiser received an <em>indeterminate sentence</em> ("... to life"), thus the following applies:</p>

<blockquote>
  <p>There are two general classes of inmates in our California prison
  system. Inmates sentenced to determinate sentences, such as a term of
  seven years, serve a finite period of time that has been set by the
  criminal court and, upon expiration of the sentence, they are
  released.</p>
  
  <p>Inmates sentenced to an indeterminate term, such as life
  with the possibility of parole, are <strong>released only after it is
  determined that he or she is not a current, unreasonable risk of
  danger to the public</strong>. The Board of Parole Hearings conducts life
  prisoner suitability hearings to determine whether these inmates are
  suitable for parole.</p>
</blockquote>

<p><em><a href="http://www.cdcr.ca.gov/BOPH/lifer_parole_process.html" rel="nofollow noreferrer">Lifer Parole Process</a>, emphasis mine</em></p>

<p>So Reiser will serve at least 15 years. Then he will have to convince a parole board that he is no longer a danger to the public. How long that will take is anyone's guess. However, according to <a href="http://www.npr.org/2014/05/26/315259623/in-california-life-with-parole-increasingly-leads-to-freedom" rel="nofollow noreferrer">this article</a>  from 2014, the percentage of parole hearings resulting in a parole grant has increased in recent years, to 29% in 2013. So he may be granted parole a few years after 2021.</p>

california murder probate prison