Hypothesis Generation with Large Language Models
Yangqiaoyu Zhou Haokun Liu Tejes Srivastava Hongyuan Mei Chenhao Tan
Effective generation of novel hypotheses is instrumental to scientific
progress. So far, researchers have been the main powerhouse behind hypothesis
generation by painstaking data analysis and thinking (also known as the Eureka
moment). In this paper, we examine the potential of large language models
(LLMs) to generate hypotheses. We focus on hypothesis generation based on data
(i.e., labeled examples). To enable LLMs to handle arbitrarily long contexts,
we generate initial hypotheses from a small number of examples and then update
them iteratively to improve the quality of hypotheses. Inspired by multi-armed
bandits, we design a reward function to inform the exploitation-exploration
tradeoff in the update process. Our algorithm is able to generate hypotheses
that enable much better predictive performance than few-shot prompting in
classification tasks, improving accuracy by 31.7% on a synthetic dataset and by
13.9%, 3.3% and, 24.9% on three real-world datasets. We also outperform
supervised learning by 12.8% and 11.2% on two challenging real-world datasets.
Furthermore, we find that the generated hypotheses not only corroborate
human-verified theories but also uncover new insights for the tasks.