Prediction of the 2023 Turkish Presidential Election Results Using
  Social Media Data
Aysun Bozanta Fuad Bayrak Ayse Basar
Social media platforms influence the way political campaigns are run and
therefore they have become an increasingly important tool for politicians to
directly interact with citizens. Previous elections in various countries have
shown that social media data may significantly impact election results. In this
study, we aim to predict the vote shares of parties participating in the 2023
elections in Turkey by combining social media data from various platforms
together with traditional polling data. Our approach is a volume-based approach
that considers the number of social media interactions rather than content. We
compare several prediction models across varying time windows. Our results show
that for all time windows, the ARIMAX model outperforms the other algorithms.