Learning About Structural Errors in Models of Complex Dynamical Systems
Jin-Long Wu Matthew E. Levine Tapio Schneider Andrew Stuart
Complex dynamical systems are notoriously difficult to model because some
degrees of freedom (e.g., small scales) may be computationally unresolvable or
are incompletely understood, yet they are dynamically important. For example,
the small scales of cloud dynamics and droplet formation are crucial for
controlling climate, yet are unresolvable in global climate models.
Semi-empirical closure models for the effects of unresolved degrees of freedom
often exist and encode important domain-specific knowledge. Building on such
closure models and correcting them through learning the structural errors can
be an effective way of fusing data with domain knowledge. Here we describe a
general approach, principles, and algorithms for learning about structural
errors. Key to our approach is to include structural error models inside the
models of complex systems, for example, in closure models for unresolved
scales. The structural errors then map, usually nonlinearly, to observable
data. As a result, however, mismatches between model output and data are only
indirectly informative about structural errors, due to a lack of labeled pairs
of inputs and outputs of structural error models. Additionally, derivatives of
the model may not exist or be readily available. We discuss how structural
error models can be learned from indirect data with derivative-free Kalman
inversion algorithms and variants, how sparsity constraints enforce a "do no
harm" principle, and various ways of modeling structural errors. We also
discuss the merits of using non-local and/or stochastic error models. In
addition, we demonstrate how data assimilation techniques can assist the
learning about structural errors in non-ergodic systems. The concepts and
algorithms are illustrated in two numerical examples based on the Lorenz-96
system and a human glucose-insulin model.