Uncertainty Aware Training to Improve Deep Learning Model Calibration
  for Classification of Cardiac MR Images
Tareen Dawood Chen Chen Baldeep S. Sidhua Bram Ruijsink Justin Goulda Bradley Porter Mark K. Elliott Vishal Mehta Christopher A. Rinaldi Esther Puyol-Anton Reza Razavi Andrew P. King
Quantifying uncertainty of predictions has been identified as one way to
develop more trustworthy artificial intelligence (AI) models beyond
conventional reporting of performance metrics. When considering their role in a
clinical decision support setting, AI classification models should ideally
avoid confident wrong predictions and maximise the confidence of correct
predictions. Models that do this are said to be well-calibrated with regard to
confidence. However, relatively little attention has been paid to how to
improve calibration when training these models, i.e., to make the training
strategy uncertainty-aware. In this work we evaluate three novel
uncertainty-aware training strategies comparing against two state-of-the-art
approaches. We analyse performance on two different clinical applications:
cardiac resynchronisation therapy (CRT) response prediction and coronary artery
disease (CAD) diagnosis from cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) images. The
best-performing model in terms of both classification accuracy and the most
common calibration measure, expected calibration error (ECE) was the Confidence
Weight method, a novel approach that weights the loss of samples to explicitly
penalise confident incorrect predictions. The method reduced the ECE by 17% for
CRT response prediction and by 22% for CAD diagnosis when compared to a
baseline classifier in which no uncertainty-aware strategy was included. In
both applications, as well as reducing the ECE there was a slight increase in
accuracy from 69% to 70% and 70% to 72% for CRT response prediction and CAD
diagnosis respectively. However, our analysis showed a lack of consistency in
terms of optimal models when using different calibration measures. This
indicates the need for careful consideration of performance metrics when
training and selecting models for complex high-risk applications in healthcare.