A Machine Learning-Based Framework for Clustering Residential
  Electricity Load Profiles to Enhance Demand Response Programs
Vasilis Michalakopoulos Elissaios Sarmas Ioannis Papias Panagiotis Skaloumpakas Vangelis Marinakis Haris Doukas
Load shapes derived from smart meter data are frequently employed to analyze
daily energy consumption patterns, particularly in the context of applications
like Demand Response (DR). Nevertheless, one of the most important challenges
to this endeavor lies in identifying the most suitable consumer clusters with
similar consumption behaviors. In this paper, we present a novel machine
learning based framework in order to achieve optimal load profiling through a
real case study, utilizing data from almost 5000 households in London. Four
widely used clustering algorithms are applied specifically K-means, K-medoids,
Hierarchical Agglomerative Clustering and Density-based Spatial Clustering. An
empirical analysis as well as multiple evaluation metrics are leveraged to
assess those algorithms. Following that, we redefine the problem as a
probabilistic classification one, with the classifier emulating the behavior of
a clustering algorithm,leveraging Explainable AI (xAI) to enhance the
interpretability of our solution. According to the clustering algorithm
analysis the optimal number of clusters for this case is seven. Despite that,
our methodology shows that two of the clusters, almost 10\% of the dataset,
exhibit significant internal dissimilarity and thus it splits them even further
to create nine clusters in total. The scalability and versatility of our
solution makes it an ideal choice for power utility companies aiming to segment
their users for creating more targeted Demand Response programs.