Distil the informative essence of loop detector data set: Is
  network-level traffic forecasting hungry for more data?
Guopeng Li Victor L. Knoop J. W. C. van Lint
Network-level traffic condition forecasting has been intensively studied for
decades. Although prediction accuracy has been continuously improved with
emerging deep learning models and ever-expanding traffic data, traffic
forecasting still faces many challenges in practice. These challenges include
the robustness of data-driven models, the inherent unpredictability of traffic
dynamics, and whether further improvement of traffic forecasting requires more
sensor data. In this paper, we focus on this latter question and particularly
on data from loop detectors. To answer this, we propose an uncertainty-aware
traffic forecasting framework to explore how many samples of loop data are
truly effective for training forecasting models. Firstly, the model design
combines traffic flow theory with graph neural networks, ensuring the
robustness of prediction and uncertainty quantification. Secondly, evidential
learning is employed to quantify different sources of uncertainty in a single
pass. The estimated uncertainty is used to "distil" the essence of the dataset
that sufficiently covers the information content. Results from a case study of
a highway network around Amsterdam show that, from 2018 to 2021, more than 80\%
of the data during daytime can be removed. The remaining 20\% samples have
equal prediction power for training models. This result suggests that indeed
large traffic datasets can be subdivided into significantly smaller but equally
informative datasets. From these findings, we conclude that the proposed
methodology proves valuable in evaluating large traffic datasets' true
information content. Further extensions, such as extracting smaller, spatially
non-redundant datasets, are possible with this method.