Impact of data usage for forecasting on performance of model predictive
  control in buildings with smart energy storage
Max Langtry Vijja Wichitwechkarn Rebecca Ward Chaoqun Zhuang Monika J. Kreitmair Nikolas Makasis Zack Xuereb Conti Ruchi Choudhary
Data is required to develop forecasting models for use in Model Predictive
Control (MPC) schemes in building energy systems. However, data usage incurs
costs from both its collection and exploitation. Determining cost optimal data
usage requires understanding of the forecast accuracy and resulting MPC
operational performance it enables. This study investigates the performance of
both simple and state-of-the-art machine learning prediction models for MPC in
a multi-building energy system simulation using historic building energy data.
The impact of data usage on forecast accuracy is quantified for the following
data efficiency measures: reuse of prediction models, reduction of training
data volumes, reduction of model data features, and online model training. A
simple linear multi-layer perceptron model is shown to provide equivalent
forecast accuracy to state-of-the-art models, with greater data efficiency and
generalisability. The use of more than 2 years of training data for load
prediction models provided no significant improvement in forecast accuracy.
Forecast accuracy and data efficiency were improved simultaneously by using
change-point analysis to screen training data. Reused models and those trained
with 3 months of data had on average 10% higher error than baseline, indicating
that deploying MPC systems without prior data collection may be economic.