Forecasting Auxiliary Energy Consumption for Electric Heavy-Duty
  Vehicles
Yuantao Fan Zhenkan Wang Sepideh Pashami Slawomir Nowaczyk Henrik Ydreskog
Accurate energy consumption prediction is crucial for optimizing the
operation of electric commercial heavy-duty vehicles, e.g., route planning for
charging. Moreover, understanding why certain predictions are cast is paramount
for such a predictive model to gain user trust and be deployed in practice.
Since commercial vehicles operate differently as transportation tasks, ambient,
and drivers vary, a heterogeneous population is expected when building an AI
system for forecasting energy consumption. The dependencies between the input
features and the target values are expected to also differ across
sub-populations. One well-known example of such a statistical phenomenon is the
Simpson paradox. In this paper, we illustrate that such a setting poses a
challenge for existing XAI methods that produce global feature statistics, e.g.
LIME or SHAP, causing them to yield misleading results. We demonstrate a
potential solution by training multiple regression models on subsets of data.
It not only leads to superior regression performance but also more relevant and
consistent LIME explanations. Given that the employed groupings correspond to
relevant sub-populations, the associations between the input features and the
target values are consistent within each cluster but different across clusters.
Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that such splitting
of a complex problem into simpler ones yields better regression performance and
interpretability.