Active Statistical Inference
Tijana Zrnic Emmanuel J. Candès
Inspired by the concept of active learning, we propose active
inference$\unicode{x2013}$a methodology for statistical inference with
machine-learning-assisted data collection. Assuming a budget on the number of
labels that can be collected, the methodology uses a machine learning model to
identify which data points would be most beneficial to label, thus effectively
utilizing the budget. It operates on a simple yet powerful intuition:
prioritize the collection of labels for data points where the model exhibits
uncertainty, and rely on the model's predictions where it is confident. Active
inference constructs provably valid confidence intervals and hypothesis tests
while leveraging any black-box machine learning model and handling any data
distribution. The key point is that it achieves the same level of accuracy with
far fewer samples than existing baselines relying on non-adaptively-collected
data. This means that for the same number of collected samples, active
inference enables smaller confidence intervals and more powerful p-values. We
evaluate active inference on datasets from public opinion research, census
analysis, and proteomics.