weather weather application science technology predict state atmosphere given location human beings attempted predict weather informally formally nineteenth century weather forecasts collecting data current state atmosphere given place scientific understanding atmospheric processes project atmosphere change human endeavor based mainly changes barometric pressure current weather conditions sky condition weather relies computer based models atmospheric factors account human input required pick best possible forecast model base forecast involves pattern recognition skills knowledge model performance knowledge model chaotic nature atmosphere massive power required solve describe atmosphere error involved measuring initial conditions incomplete understanding atmospheric processes mean forecasts accurate difference current time time forecast range forecast increases use model consensus help narrow error pick likely outcome variety end uses weather forecasts weather warnings important forecasts protect life property forecasts based temperature precipitation important agriculture traders markets temperature forecasts utility companies estimate demand coming days everyday basis people use weather forecasts determine wear given day outdoor activities severely curtailed heavy rain snow wind forecasts plan activities events plan ahead survive history ancient people tried forecast weather predicted weather cloud patterns aristotle described weather patterns later compiled book weather called book signs chinese weather prediction lore extends far time ancient indian developed weather prediction methods discussed weather atmospheric changes signs alterations signs rain based observation lunar phases weather forecasts based movement winds ancient weather methods usually relied observed patterns events termed pattern recognition example observed sunset particularly red following day brought fair weather experience accumulated generations produce weather lore predictions prove reliable found stand rigorous statistical testing modern methods invention electric telegraph modern age weather began fastest distant weather reports travel miles day typically miles day day land sea late 1840s telegraph allowed reports weather conditions wide area received allowing forecasts knowledge weather conditions men credited birth science officer protégé influential men british naval governmental circles ridiculed press time work gained scientific accepted royal_navy formed basis today weather knowledge developed weather use journals remainder life promoted development reliable tide tables british shores friend expanded weather record keeping guard stations appointed chief new department deal collection weather data sea service forerunner modern ship captains tasked data weather computing use tested instruments loaned purpose storm caused loss royal charter inspired develop charts allow predictions called weather term weather forecast land stations established use new telegraph transmit daily reports weather set times leading gale warning service warning service shipping initiated february use telegraph communications daily weather forecasts published times following year system introduced storm warning principal ports gale expected weather book published far advance scientific opinion time electric telegraph network expanded allowing rapid warnings national network developed provide analyses instruments continuously record variations meteorological parameters photography supplied observing stations cameras invented earlier convey accurate information soon necessary standard vocabulary describing clouds achieved means series classifications achieved standardized international cloud numerical prediction 20th century advances understanding atmospheric physics led foundation modern numerical weather prediction english scientist published weather prediction numerical process finding notes worked ambulance driver world war described small terms fluid dynamics governing atmospheric flow neglected finite scheme time space devised allow numerical prediction solutions found richardson envisioned large auditorium thousands people performing calculations passing sheer number calculations required large completed use computers size grid time steps led unrealistic results deepening systems later found numerical analysis numerical instability weather forecast performed team led mathematician von publishing paper practical use numerical weather prediction began spurred development electronic computers broadcasts daily weather forecasts published times august weather maps produced later year began issuing marine weather forecasts radio transmission included gale storm warnings areas great_britain united_states public radio forecasts station boston came weather world televised weather forecasts including use weather maps broadcast bbc brought practice world war gave weather forecast televised map america experimental television forecasts cincinnati late 1970s early 80s pioneered use screen weather satellite information computer graphics television forecasts founder hour cable network models create forecasts basic idea numerical weather prediction sample state fluid given time use fluid dynamics estimate state fluid time future main country based weather services surface observations automated weather stations ground level land weather sea acts instrumentation observing practices timing observations worldwide stations report hourly reports hours reports sites launch rise depth data weather satellites areas traditional data sources available compared similar data satellite data advantage global coverage lower accuracy resolution meteorological radar provide information precipitation location intensity estimate precipitation time additionally pulse weather radar wind speed direction determined commerce provides pilot reports aircraft routes ship reports shipping routes research flights reconnaissance aircraft fly weather systems interest tropical cyclones reconnaissance aircraft flown open oceans cold season systems cause significant uncertainty forecast guidance expected high impact days future downstream continent models observed data irregularly spaced observations processed data objective analysis methods perform quality control obtain values locations usable model mathematical usually evenly spaced grid data model starting point forecast commonly set predict known physics dynamics atmosphere called primitive analysis data rates change determined rates change predict state atmosphere short time future applied new atmospheric state find new rates change new rates change predict atmosphere time future time stepping procedure continually repeated solution reaches desired forecast time length time step related distance points grid length time step chosen model related distance points grid chosen maintain numerical stability time steps global models order tens minutes time steps regional models minutes global models run varying times future unified model run days future forecasts model run days future global forecast system model run run days future visual output produced model solution known chart raw output modified presented forecast form statistical techniques remove known model adjustment account consensus numerical weather forecasts model output statistics technique interpret numerical model output produce site specific guidance guidance presented coded numerical form obtained nearly national_weather_service reporting stations united_states proposed long range forecasts range weeks impossible definitively predict state atmosphere owing chaotic nature fluid dynamics involved numerical models extremely small errors initial values double roughly days temperature wind velocity essentially model computer program produces meteorological information future times given locations altitudes modern model set known primitive predict future state atmosphere ideal gas law evolve density pressure potential temperature fields velocity field atmosphere time additional transport included primitive equation models partial differential impossible solve exactly methods exception cases numerical methods obtain approximate solutions different models use different solution methods global models use methods horizontal dimensions finite difference methods vertical dimension regional models global models usually use finite difference methods dimensions techniques persistence simplest method weather persistence relies today conditions forecast conditions tomorrow valid way weather steady state summer season tropics method strongly depends presence weather pattern useful short range forecasts long range forecasts use measurements barometric pressure pressure tendency change pressure time late 19th century larger change pressure especially hpa larger change weather expected pressure drop rapid low pressure system approaching greater chance rain rapid pressure rises associated improving weather conditions clearing skies looking sky pressure tendency condition sky important parameters forecast weather mountainous areas cloud cover invasion higher cloud deck indicative rain near future night high thin clouds lead moon indicates approach warm associated rain morning fog fair conditions rainy conditions preceded wind clouds prevent fog formation approach line thunderstorms indicate approach cold cloud free skies indicative fair weather near future bar indicate coming tropical cyclone use sky cover weather prediction led weather lore centuries weather hours referred time range possible forecast smaller features individual showers thunderstorms reasonable accuracy features small resolved computer model human given latest radar satellite data able better analysis small scale features present able accurate forecast following hours expert systems data numerical model better including evolution features time use forecast models past human responsible generating entire weather forecast based available observations today human input generally confined choosing model based parameters model performance consensus forecast models ensemble members models help reduce forecast error regardless small average error individual system large errors particular piece guidance possible given model run humans required interpret model data weather forecasts end user humans use knowledge local effects small size resolved model add information forecast increasing accuracy forecast models implies humans longer needed forecast process point future currently need human intervention analog technique analog technique complex way making forecast requiring remember previous weather event expected upcoming event makes difficult technique use rarely perfect analog event future type pattern recognition remains useful method observing rainfall data oceans precipitation amounts distribution future similar technique medium range known systems locations help pin location system surrounding regime example related phenomena communicating forecasts public end users forecasts members general public thunderstorms create strong winds dangerous lightning strikes lead deaths power outages widespread hail damage heavy snow rain bring transportation commerce stand cause flooding low lying areas excessive heat cold waves kill inadequate utilities impact water usage destroy vegetation countries employ government agencies provide forecasts watches warnings advisories public order protect life property maintain commercial interests knowledge end user needs weather forecast taken account present information useful way examples include national_weather_service traditionally newspaper television radio primary outlets presenting weather forecast information public increasingly internet vast specific information found cases outlets update forecasts regular basis severe weather advisories major modern weather severe weather advisories national weather services issue case severe hazardous weather expected protect life property commonly known severe weather advisories severe thunderstorm tornado warning severe thunderstorm tornado watch forms advisories include winter weather high wind flood tropical cyclone fog severe weather advisories broadcast media including radio emergency systems emergency alert system break regular programming low temperature forecast low temperature forecast current day calculated lowest temperature found evening following morning short today low likely tomorrow low temperature specialist number sectors specific needs weather forecasts specialist services provided users air traffic aviation industry especially sensitive weather accurate weather essential fog exceptionally low ceilings prevent aircraft landing taking significant flight hazards thunderstorms problem aircraft severe outflow boundaries heavy precipitation large hail strong winds lightning cause severe damage aircraft flight volcanic ash significant problem aviation aircraft lose engine power ash clouds day day basis routed advantage jet stream improve fuel efficiency prior takeoff conditions expect route destination additionally airports change runway advantage reduces distance required takeoff potential marine commercial recreational use waterways limited significantly wind direction speed wave heights tides precipitation factors influence safety marine transit consequently variety codes established efficiently transmit detailed marine weather forecasts vessel pilots radio example marine forecast typical weather forecasts received sea use agriculture farmers rely weather forecasts decide work particular day example drying hay feasible dry weather prolonged periods ruin cotton wheat corn crops corn crops ruined drought dried remains cattle feed substitute form play havoc crops spring fall example peach trees bloom potential peach crop spring freeze orange suffer significant damage regardless timing forestry weather wind humidity essential preventing controlling different like forest fire weather index index developed predict areas risk experience fire natural human causes conditions development harmful insects predicted evolution weather utility companies electricity gas companies rely weather forecasts demand strongly affected weather use quantity termed degree day determine strong use heating heating degree day cooling cooling degree day quantities based daily average temperature cooler temperatures force heating degree days degree warmer temperatures force cooling degree days winter severe cold weather cause surge demand people turn heating similarly summer surge demand linked increased use air conditioning systems hot weather anticipating surge demand utility companies purchase additional supplies power natural gas price increases circumstances supplies restricted use commercial companies increasingly private companies pay weather forecasts tailored needs increase profits avoid large losses example supermarket chains change stocks shelves anticipation different consumer spending habits different weather conditions weather forecasts invest market corn oil military applications royal_navy working specialist branch weather observers forecasters monitor forecast operational conditions globe provide accurate timely weather information submarines ships aircraft royal_air_force mobile unit raf working forecasts weather regions british allied servicemen women deployed group based camp provides forecasts british armed forces afghanistan navy similar private sector military weather forecasters present weather conditions war fighter community military weather forecasters provide pre flight flight weather pilots provide real time resource protection services military installations naval forecasters cover waters ship weather forecasts united_states_navy provides special service rest federal government issuing forecasts tropical cyclones pacific indian oceans joint typhoon warning center air_force united_states air force weather provides weather air_force army air_force forecasters cover air operations wartime peacetime operations provide army support united_states_coast_guard marine science technicians provide ship forecasts ice breakers operations realm marine forecasters provide support air based united_states marine_corps operations military branches initial enlisted technical training military civilian forecasters actively cooperate analyzing creating weather forecast products meteorological agencies academic governmental organizations provide limited forecast area interest website forecast greece ireland south swiss weather agency english joint online weather service spanish spanish based brazil external links economic history impact weather dynamic weather online educational tool weather world weather news january article international weather report systems set world war wireless broadcasting stations ships worldwide weather forecasts new technology increases warning time tornadoes hurricanes potentially save hundreds lives year april current aviation weather charts americas europe asia africa atlantic pacific oceans wind weather
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