meteorological history hurricane hurricane meteorological history began origins africa tropical wave lasted dissipation extratropical cyclone north united_kingdom tropical depression thirteen formed october southwestern caribbean_sea tropical wave exited africa october executed small loop intensified weakness ridge allowed storm track slowly north disorganized wind shear nearby upper level low quickly intensified response improving conditions included warm waters good outflow hurricane october developed eye turning west rapidly intensified major hurricane october category saffir simpson hurricane scale day peak intensity maintained maximum sustained winds mph northern coast honduras hurricane_hunters reported minimum barometric pressure mbar inhg time lowest month october tied fourth lowest atlantic hurricane initially national_hurricane_center nhc tropical cyclone forecast models anticipated turn north threatening yucatán_peninsula instead turned south ridge observed storm active land interaction weakening hurricane landfall honduras october winds mph turning westward slowly weakened land maintained deep convection adjacent waters moving mountainous terrain central_america surface circulation dissipated november day remnants reached gulf_of_mexico reorganized tropical storm november accelerated northeast ahead cold moving yucatán_peninsula striking southwestern florida november shortly storm extratropical cyclone tracked nhc november origins origin traced tropical wave elongated area low air pressure moving east west moved western africa october evidenced data october wave exited coast continued generally westward development strong wind shear wave reached eastern caribbean_sea october subsequent days developed organizing area convection thunderstorms system organized prompt hurricane_hunters investigation observed small circulation center flight level tropical storm force winds result national_hurricane_center nhc estimated system developed tropical cyclone utc october located south kingston jamaica classified tropical depression thirteen near tropical storm status established outflow time circulation northern periphery convection initially upper level low north convection steady intensification expected generally favorable conditions anticyclone expected develop aloft depression remained nearly stationary southwestern caribbean_sea eventually executing small loop east island convective structure initially described rainbands extending center late october hurricane hunters observed flight level winds mph indicated surface winds tropical storm force based reading nhc upgraded depression intensification upgraded tropical storm status small radius maximum winds flight level trough moving eastern united_states weakened ridge north allowing storm slowly northward additional forecast build trough turn west area near days significant intensification initially hampered upper level low northwest generating wind shear result convection weakened october despite improving cloud pattern tropical cyclone forecast models anticipated significant strengthening winds mph anticyclone aloft established nhc noted difficult intensification present poorly defined pattern observed satellite knowing global models tend rid fast hours disorganized thunderstorms reformed early october upper level low weakened shear diminished eye quickly formed center convection based hurricane hunter reports mph flight level winds nhc upgraded hurricane status october time storm moving slowly north located south kingston shortly hurricane began undergoing rapid deepening developed strong central dense overcast fueled low shear warm water temperatures eye better organized anticyclone established hurricane developed defined outflow directions early october intensified major hurricane category saffir simpson hurricane scale time hurricane begun turning west intensifying ridge gulf_of_mexico nhc described ideal environment strengthening continued rapidly intensifying hour period ending late october barometric pressure fell mbar inhg mbar inhg strengthening closest point approach jamaica passing west southwest island nhc noted potential weak steering currents hurricane reached western caribbean agency anticipated general northward turn yucatán_peninsula nhc estimated intensified category hurricane utc october utc day hurricane hunters observed flight level winds mph hurricane northeastern quadrant suggesting peak maximum sustained winds mph time recorded minimum pressure mbar inhg time considered fourth intense atlantic hurricane tied hurricane strongest month october surpassing hurricane records surpassed subsequent hurricanes time hurricane located north coast honduras tropical storm force winds extended center hurricane force winds reached center central_america landfall peak intensity nhc noted clear country countries northwest caribbean threatened late october navy operational global atmospheric prediction system forecast hurricane continue west strike belize computer model anticipated general movement north western caribbean maintained peak winds hours time moved offshore honduras motion westward despite continued predictions northerly turn convection eye ragged october gradual weakening occurred southern half circulation moving honduras cut south eye distinct early october weakened category status weak mid level anticyclone gulf_of_mexico observed operationally began slow southerly motion october passing near nhc anticipated movement small loop agency noted continued uncertainty steadily deteriorating weakened major hurricane intensity late october land interaction possibly eyewall replacement cycle october hurricane landfall honduras east winds mph despite land nhc continued predict turn north allow late october weakened tropical storm status moved slowly honduras turning west large circulation dropped heavy rainfall central_america particularly honduras nicaragua causing widespread flooding land initially maintained area deep convection allowed maintain tropical storm force winds october circulation poorly defined moving increasingly mountainous terrain strongest convection persisted adjacent pacific_ocean nhc noted potential pacific tropical cyclone later day weakened tropical depression near border guatemala honduras approaching trough weakened ridge western gulf_of_mexico allowing long intended turn northwest convection gradually diminished surface circulation dissipated november near border mexico guatemala regeneration extratropical transition surface low pressure center dissipated remnants maintained circulation aloft reached bay november day system began trigger convection late november hurricane hunters observed defined low level center flight level winds mph basis nhc began advisories west southwest yucatán_peninsula reforming moving east northeast influenced approaching cold early november landfall north winds mph quickly weakened tropical depression crossing yucatán_peninsula eastern mexico deep convection eastern periphery moderately warm waters potential intensification expected emerging gulf_of_mexico second time november tropical storm purely tropical cyclone convection minimal near core strongest winds center accelerated coast florida interacted approaching cold november circulation elongated nhc commented remnants probably calling tropical cyclone storm strengthened reach winds mph making final landfall southwestern florida near naples quickly crossed state producing tornadoes tropical storm force winds storm emerged southwestern atlantic_ocean late november hurricane hunters flight locate defined center associated instead observing elongated circulation embedded cold based observations nhc declared extratropical cyclone extratropical remnants continued quickly northeast november passed north bermuda following day intensified slightly winds mph november remnants passed west british isles monitored nhc later day
Meteorological history of Hurricane Mitch