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Mar 21

Deep Stochastic Kinematic Models for Probabilistic Motion Forecasting in Traffic

In trajectory forecasting tasks for traffic, future output trajectories can be computed by advancing the ego vehicle's state with predicted actions according to a kinematics model. By unrolling predicted trajectories via time integration and models of kinematic dynamics, predicted trajectories should not only be kinematically feasible but also relate uncertainty from one timestep to the next. While current works in probabilistic prediction do incorporate kinematic priors for mean trajectory prediction, variance is often left as a learnable parameter, despite uncertainty in one time step being inextricably tied to uncertainty in the previous time step. In this paper, we show simple and differentiable analytical approximations describing the relationship between variance at one timestep and that at the next with the kinematic bicycle model. These approximations can be easily incorporated with negligible additional overhead into any existing trajectory forecasting framework utilizing probabilistic predictions, whether it is autoregressive or one-shot prediction. In our results, we find that encoding the relationship between variance across timesteps works especially well in unoptimal settings, such as with small or noisy datasets. We observe up to a 50% performance boost in partial dataset settings and up to an 8% performance boost in large-scale learning compared to previous kinematic prediction methods on SOTA trajectory forecasting architectures out-of-the-box, with no fine-tuning. In this paper, we show four analytical formulations of probabilistic kinematic priors which can be used for any Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-based deep learning models, quantify the error bound on linear approximations applied during trajectory unrolling, and show results to evaluate each formulation in trajectory forecasting.

Improving Language Model Negotiation with Self-Play and In-Context Learning from AI Feedback

We study whether multiple large language models (LLMs) can autonomously improve each other in a negotiation game by playing, reflecting, and criticizing. We are interested in this question because if LLMs were able to improve each other, it would imply the possibility of creating strong AI agents with minimal human intervention. We ask two LLMs to negotiate with each other, playing the roles of a buyer and a seller, respectively. They aim to reach a deal with the buyer targeting a lower price and the seller a higher one. A third language model, playing the critic, provides feedback to a player to improve the player's negotiation strategies. We let the two agents play multiple rounds, using previous negotiation history and AI feedback as in-context demonstrations to improve the model's negotiation strategy iteratively. We use different LLMs (GPT and Claude) for different roles and use the deal price as the evaluation metric. Our experiments reveal multiple intriguing findings: (1) Only a subset of the language models we consider can self-play and improve the deal price from AI feedback, weaker models either do not understand the game's rules or cannot incorporate AI feedback for further improvement. (2) Models' abilities to learn from the feedback differ when playing different roles. For example, it is harder for Claude-instant to improve as the buyer than as the seller. (3) When unrolling the game to multiple rounds, stronger agents can consistently improve their performance by meaningfully using previous experiences and iterative AI feedback, yet have a higher risk of breaking the deal. We hope our work provides insightful initial explorations of having models autonomously improve each other with game playing and AI feedback.

Evaluating Cognitive Maps and Planning in Large Language Models with CogEval

Recently an influx of studies claim emergent cognitive abilities in large language models (LLMs). Yet, most rely on anecdotes, overlook contamination of training sets, or lack systematic Evaluation involving multiple tasks, control conditions, multiple iterations, and statistical robustness tests. Here we make two major contributions. First, we propose CogEval, a cognitive science-inspired protocol for the systematic evaluation of cognitive capacities in Large Language Models. The CogEval protocol can be followed for the evaluation of various abilities. Second, here we follow CogEval to systematically evaluate cognitive maps and planning ability across eight LLMs (OpenAI GPT-4, GPT-3.5-turbo-175B, davinci-003-175B, Google Bard, Cohere-xlarge-52.4B, Anthropic Claude-1-52B, LLaMA-13B, and Alpaca-7B). We base our task prompts on human experiments, which offer both established construct validity for evaluating planning, and are absent from LLM training sets. We find that, while LLMs show apparent competence in a few planning tasks with simpler structures, systematic evaluation reveals striking failure modes in planning tasks, including hallucinations of invalid trajectories and getting trapped in loops. These findings do not support the idea of emergent out-of-the-box planning ability in LLMs. This could be because LLMs do not understand the latent relational structures underlying planning problems, known as cognitive maps, and fail at unrolling goal-directed trajectories based on the underlying structure. Implications for application and future directions are discussed.

NAVSIM: Data-Driven Non-Reactive Autonomous Vehicle Simulation and Benchmarking

Benchmarking vision-based driving policies is challenging. On one hand, open-loop evaluation with real data is easy, but these results do not reflect closed-loop performance. On the other, closed-loop evaluation is possible in simulation, but is hard to scale due to its significant computational demands. Further, the simulators available today exhibit a large domain gap to real data. This has resulted in an inability to draw clear conclusions from the rapidly growing body of research on end-to-end autonomous driving. In this paper, we present NAVSIM, a middle ground between these evaluation paradigms, where we use large datasets in combination with a non-reactive simulator to enable large-scale real-world benchmarking. Specifically, we gather simulation-based metrics, such as progress and time to collision, by unrolling bird's eye view abstractions of the test scenes for a short simulation horizon. Our simulation is non-reactive, i.e., the evaluated policy and environment do not influence each other. As we demonstrate empirically, this decoupling allows open-loop metric computation while being better aligned with closed-loop evaluations than traditional displacement errors. NAVSIM enabled a new competition held at CVPR 2024, where 143 teams submitted 463 entries, resulting in several new insights. On a large set of challenging scenarios, we observe that simple methods with moderate compute requirements such as TransFuser can match recent large-scale end-to-end driving architectures such as UniAD. Our modular framework can potentially be extended with new datasets, data curation strategies, and metrics, and will be continually maintained to host future challenges. Our code is available at https://github.com/autonomousvision/navsim.

What's in a Prior? Learned Proximal Networks for Inverse Problems

Proximal operators are ubiquitous in inverse problems, commonly appearing as part of algorithmic strategies to regularize problems that are otherwise ill-posed. Modern deep learning models have been brought to bear for these tasks too, as in the framework of plug-and-play or deep unrolling, where they loosely resemble proximal operators. Yet, something essential is lost in employing these purely data-driven approaches: there is no guarantee that a general deep network represents the proximal operator of any function, nor is there any characterization of the function for which the network might provide some approximate proximal. This not only makes guaranteeing convergence of iterative schemes challenging but, more fundamentally, complicates the analysis of what has been learned by these networks about their training data. Herein we provide a framework to develop learned proximal networks (LPN), prove that they provide exact proximal operators for a data-driven nonconvex regularizer, and show how a new training strategy, dubbed proximal matching, provably promotes the recovery of the log-prior of the true data distribution. Such LPN provide general, unsupervised, expressive proximal operators that can be used for general inverse problems with convergence guarantees. We illustrate our results in a series of cases of increasing complexity, demonstrating that these models not only result in state-of-the-art performance, but provide a window into the resulting priors learned from data.

Reduced Precision Floating-Point Optimization for Deep Neural Network On-Device Learning on MicroControllers

Enabling On-Device Learning (ODL) for Ultra-Low-Power Micro-Controller Units (MCUs) is a key step for post-deployment adaptation and fine-tuning of Deep Neural Network (DNN) models in future TinyML applications. This paper tackles this challenge by introducing a novel reduced precision optimization technique for ODL primitives on MCU-class devices, leveraging the State-of-Art advancements in RISC-V RV32 architectures with support for vectorized 16-bit floating-point (FP16) Single-Instruction Multiple-Data (SIMD) operations. Our approach for the Forward and Backward steps of the Back-Propagation training algorithm is composed of specialized shape transform operators and Matrix Multiplication (MM) kernels, accelerated with parallelization and loop unrolling. When evaluated on a single training step of a 2D Convolution layer, the SIMD-optimized FP16 primitives result up to 1.72times faster than the FP32 baseline on a RISC-V-based 8+1-core MCU. An average computing efficiency of 3.11 Multiply and Accumulate operations per clock cycle (MAC/clk) and 0.81 MAC/clk is measured for the end-to-end training tasks of a ResNet8 and a DS-CNN for Image Classification and Keyword Spotting, respectively -- requiring 17.1 ms and 6.4 ms on the target platform to compute a training step on a single sample. Overall, our approach results more than two orders of magnitude faster than existing ODL software frameworks for single-core MCUs and outperforms by 1.6 times previous FP32 parallel implementations on a Continual Learning setup.