I. Purpose of the project

In this project, we present essays that describe our current knowledge on various topics, such as poverty, globalization, democracy and development. Each section includes essays that outline or summarize the current situation or major trends. The sections also include essays that present alternative or contrary points of view. It is left to the reader to decide how to resolve any contrary presentations.

Overall, the main purposes of this project are to:

As the project grows, an additional goal of the project is to tie together the essays and present an integrated picture of the world.

II. Essay Presentations

In this introduction to the project, we describe overall global patterns of change.  This presentation provides the context for understanding the other essays in this project.

In general, the main essays will be reviewed by the management team and, when possible, by recognised knowledgable people in the area, to insure the essays are consistend with literature in the major journals and books and with the overview presented below. The alternative viewpoint essays, of course, do not necessarily follow generally accepted literature, but may serve to point out questions or issues not always included in the accepted points of view.

Also, while the essays are written for the general audience and will not be presented in an 'academic' style, they will still include references, so that those interested may have convenient pointers in where to look for further information.

III. World changes

In general, living conditions have improved globally in the last several decades. For example, infant mortality rates, and illiteracy have declined, and political freedom has increased. Not for everyone and not for all equally, but overall there has been improvement. Other changes including changes in world populations. These patterns are described in more detail below.

World population has moved

Population growth has slowed, but has still been higher in developing countries. Thus, the percent of world population living in the developing countries has grown from 70% in 1960 to 81% in 2001. In addition, urbanization has increased, so more of the world population is living in cities.

Changed material conditions

There have also been large changes in material conditions. For example, there has been growth in radio and TV receivers per capita, growth in newspaper circulation per capita among the less developed countries, and tremendous growth in internet use throughout the world.

Improved living conditions

Many changes have been in improved living conditions. For example infant mortality rates has declined, illiteracy and percent of population without any schooling has declined, especially among less developed countries, GDP per capita increased and (most likely) poverty has declined.

Political freedom has also increased in the last several decades, but this growth has only been moderate.

Slower improvement among less developed countries

However, improvements did not procede equally. For example, in 1960, infant mortality rate (IMR) was about 5 times higher in developing countries than it was among developed countries. In 2000, IMR in developing countries was about 11 times higher than it was in developed countries.

Table 1
  Infant Mortality Rate
( ratio of deaths under 1 year to 1,000 births in the same year.)

Regional summaries
N = 156
N = 194
Developed countries 43
Developing countries
Ratio = IMR of developing countries / 
            IMR of  developed countries
Data source:
Ratios calculated by Dr. Shackman

That is, infant mortality rate declined in both developing and developed countries, but it declined faster in developed countries. In addition, unfortunately several countries (e.g., Angola, Botswana, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Zambia) had increases in infant mortality rate.

Also, the illiteracy rate in developing countries changed from about 10 times larger than illiteracy rate in more developed countries in 1970 to about almost 20 times larger in 2000. Again, overall, illiteracy rates declined in both developing and more developed countries, but it declined faster in developed countries.

Similarly, political change happened at a much slower pace in less developed countries. While freedom is now almost universal among developed countries, there has only been moderate growth in freedom among less developed countries, and only 32% of people in less developed countries live in freedom.

Changing patterns and consequences of conflict

One common trend in conflict has been, in the 1970s to the mid 1990s, an increase in civil wars and refugees, then in the 1990s, a decrease in conflict and refugees. The number of terrorist attacks generally follows this pattern, except that the decline started in the late 1980s. Unfortunately, casualties from terrorism doesn't seem to follow this trend. There have been fewer terrorist attacks, but not fewer casualties. Casualties seem to have increased in Asia, and in the last several years in the Middle East as well.

Civil wars have generally involved at most 50 countries in any year, and more generally fewer than 40, out of about 223 countries. That is, most countries were not involved in conflicts, but a significant number were. Similarly, there have generally been 10 to 15 million refugees each year during the 1980s to 2000, out of a world population of 5 to 6 billion. Only a small percent were ever refugees, but the numbers who were refugees were still significant.

IV.  Changes at the individual country level 

However, social change is a very complex process. For example, while general patterns can be described for Less Developed Countries (LDCs), it is much more difficult to describe change in individual countries. Table 2 shows LDCs with declining living conditions in infant mortality rate, education and political freedom. As can be seen, none of the countries had more than one of these changes. At the specific country level, that is, a decline in living conditions in one area does not necessarily relate to a decline in other areas.

Table 2
Less Developed Countries with declining conditions

  Countries with increased infant mortality rate, 
1980 to 2000
Countries with largest increase in percent without schooling
1980 to 2000
Countries that changed from partly free to   not free.
1980 to 2000
Sri Lanka  
Trinidad and Tobago  
United Arab Emirates    

<>Used by permission from:
Shackman, Gene, Ya-Lin Liu and Xun Wang. 2004. How Societies Change Over Time: Summary.  Available at

May be cited and used provided proper citation is given.
Cite as:

Shackman, Gene, Ya-Lin Liu and Xun Wang. 2004. Introduction to Our Current Knowledge Project. Available at

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