@article {7801, title = {Development of The Wildlife Adaptation Menu}, year = {2020}, month = {April 14}, abstract = {

For two decades, there has been a rapid acceleration of research on climate change effects on biodiversity and potential adaptation strategies to limit adverse changes. There have also been important contributions from researchers and practitioners to synthesize and structure recommended adaptation strategies. However, most adaptation recommendations are of limited use because they are too broad (e.g., protect large landscapes, create buffer zones), reflect current practices (e.g., reduce non-climate stressors), or are beyond the purview of an individual wildlife manager (e.g., increase connectivity). To advance climate change adaptation and management for wildlife, it is imperative to provide actionable recommendations for both population and habitat management. Importantly, recommendations should address not only vulnerable wildlife species, but also species that may benefit from climate change and increase the potential for human-wildlife conflict. To advance these goals, we conducted a comprehensive review of over 1300 peer-reviewed articles for adaptation actions suitable for wildlife management in terrestrial ecosystems. We identified primary strategies{\textemdash}11 related to population management and eight related to habitat management. We then identified numerous targeted actions{\textemdash}approaches and tactics{\textemdash} for each primary strategy. Finally, we engaged wildlife managers to develop the final product, a menu of adaptation actions, to inform planning and management decisions in an accessible format. To date, the menu has informed the development of 27 wildlife adaptation projects and will be further shared with natural resource managers in the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center /Northern Forest Station region through workshops, meetings, and web portals.

}, url = {https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5e98b56482ce172707f6aa86}, author = {LeDee, Olivia} } @article {7716, title = {Developing a decision-support process for landscape conservation design}, year = {2019}, pages = {66p}, institution = {U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station}, abstract = {


}, issn = {Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-190}, doi = {https://doi.org/10.2737/NRS-GTR-190}, url = {https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/58309}, author = {Bonnot, Thomas W. and Jones-Farrand, D. Todd and Thompson, Frank R. and Millspaugh, Joshua J and Fitzgerald, Jane A. and Muenks, Nate; and Hanberry, Phillip and Stroh, Esther and Heggemann, Larry and Fowler, Allison and Howery, Mark and Hammond, Shea and Evans, Kristine} } @article {7628, title = {Developing a decision-support process for landscape conservation design}, journal = {Gen. Tech. Rep. NRS-190. Newtown Square, PA: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station. 66 p.}, year = {2019}, month = {07/2019}, publisher = {U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Northern Research Station}, address = {Newtown Square, PA}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {climate change, dynamic, habitat, population model, restoration, risk, structured decision making, urbanization}, doi = {10.2737/NRS-GTR-190}, url = {https://www.nrs.fs.fed.us/pubs/58309}, author = {Bonnot, Thomas W. and Jones-Farrand, D. Todd and Thompson, Frank R. and Millspaugh, Joshua J. and Fitzgerald, Jane A. and Muenks, Nate and Hanberry, Phillip and Stroh, Esther and Heggemann, Larry and Fowler, Allison and Howery, Mark and Hammond, Shea and Evans, Kristine} } @article {7711, title = {Dibaginjigaadeg Anishinaabe Ezhitwaad: A Tribal Climate Adaptation Menu}, year = {2019}, pages = {54 p}, institution = {Great Lakes Indian Fish and Wildlife Commission}, address = {Odanah, Wisconsin}, abstract = {Climate change has impacted and will continue to impact indigenous peoples, their lifeways and culture, and the natural world upon which they rely, in unpredictable and potentially devastating ways. Many climate adaptation planning tools fail to address the unique needs, values and cultures of indigenous communities. This Tribal Climate Adaptation Menu, which was developed by a diverse group of collaborators representing tribal, academic, intertribal and government entities in Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan, provides a framework to integrate indigenous and traditional knowledge, culture, language and history into the climate adaptation planning process. Developed as part of the Climate Change Response Framework, the Tribal Climate Adaptation Menu is designed to work with the Northern Institute of Applied Climate Science (NIACS) Adaptation Workbook, and as a stand-alone resource. The Menu is an extensive collection of climate change adaptation actions for natural resource management, organized into tiers of general and more specific ideas. It also includes a companion Guiding Principles document, which describes detailed considerations for working with tribal communities. While this first version of the Menu was created based on Ojibwe and Menominee perspectives, languages, concepts and values, it was intentionally designed to be adaptable to other indigenous communities, allowing for the incorporation of their language, knowledge and culture. Primarily developed for the use of indigenous communities, tribal natural resource agencies and their non-indigenous partners, this Tribal Climate Adaptation Menu may be useful in bridging communication barriers for non-tribal persons or organizations interested in indigenous approaches to climate adaptation and the needs and values of tribal communities.}, keywords = {adaptation, adaptation workbook, climate change, tribes}, url = {http://www.glifwc.org/ClimateChange/TribalAdaptationMenuV1.pdf}, author = {Tribal Adaptation Menu Team} } @booklet {7746, title = {Double Trouble: Understanding Risks from Invasive Species + Climate Change}, year = {2019}, abstract = {

Individually, invasive species and climate change are major threats to global ecosystems. Together they create new challenges for effective management. Before we can design management strategies to respond to this double trouble, we need to understand how these two forms of global change interact.

}, doi = {10.7275/mrf6-p616}, author = {Bradley, Bethany and Beaury, Evelyn and Fusco, Emily and Griffin, Bridget and Laginhas, Brittany and Morelli, Toni Lyn} } @article {7422, title = {Drivers and Management Implications of Long-Term Cisco Oxythermal Habitat Decline in Lake Mendota, WI}, journal = {Environmental Management}, year = {2019}, month = {Jan-13-2019}, abstract = {

Cisco (Coregonus artedi) are an important indicator species for cold-water lake habitats in the Great Lakes region, and many populations have been extirpated at their southern range limit over the last century. Understanding the roles of climate and water quality in these extirpations should inform protection of cold-water fishes. Using the water temperature at the depth where dissolved oxygen falls to 3 mg L-1\ (TDO3) as a metric, we investigated the roles of climate and water quality as drivers of habitat availability for cisco in Lake Mendota, WI, USA from 1976 to 2013. We find that summer (Jun-Aug) air temperatures, spring (Mar-May) phosphorus load, and spring inflow influence summer TDO3. Warm air temperatures lead to the greatest increases in TDO3, whereas reduced phosphorus loads can reduce TDO3, thus alleviating oxythermal stress. Under air temperatures expected under the A1B climate change scenario, a 25\% reduction in phosphorus load would stabilize TDO3 at current levels, while a 75\% reduction in phosphorus loading would be required to expand oxythermal habitat. Costs of these reductions are estimated to range from US$16.9 million (-25\%) to US$155-167 million (-75\%) over a 20-year period but may be feasible by expanding upon current watershed phosphorus reduction initiatives if sustained funding were available. Identifying targeted reductions will become increasingly important throughout the region as warmer temperatures and longer stratification reduces cool- and cold-water fish habitat in many Midwestern lakes under the expected future climate.

}, keywords = {{\textquoteright} Lake Mendota, Cisco, climate change, Fisheries management, Phosphorus reductions}, issn = {0364-152X}, doi = {10.1007/s00267-018-01134-7}, url = {http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00267-018-01134-7}, author = {Magee, Madeline R. and McIntyre, Peter B. and Hanson, Paul C. and Wu, Chin H.} } @article {7403, title = {Decadal changes in tree range stability across forests of the eastern U.S.}, journal = {Forest Ecology and Management}, volume = {429}, year = {2018}, month = {Jan-12-2018}, pages = {503 - 510}, abstract = {

The monitoring of tree range dynamics has emerged as an important component of adaptive responses of forest management to global change scenarios such as extreme precipitation events and/or invasive species. Comparisons between the locations of adults versus seedlings of individual tree species using contemporary forest inventories is one tool widely used to assess the status of tree ranges in light of these changing conditions. With the consistent remeasurement of standard forest inventory plots across the entire eastern US occurring since the 2000s, the opportunity exists to evaluate the stability of tree ranges of focal species across a decade. Using said inventory, the northern range margins of tree distributions were examined by comparing differences (Holm-Sidak adjusted p-value=0.2) in the 95th percentile locations of seedlings to adults (i.e., trees) by 0.5 degree longitudinal bands over nearly 10 years and by categories of canopy disturbance (i.e., canopy gap formation) for 20 study species. Our results suggest that range margins are stable for 85\% of study species at both time one and at remeasurement regardless of canopy disturbance. For the very few species that had a significant difference in seedlings and adults at their range margins, there was nearly a 0.4 degree difference in latitude with seedlings being farther south irrespective of disturbance. Our findings of tree range stability across forests of the eastern US indicate a general propensity towards range contraction, especially for study species forecasted to lose range and located on disturbed sites, which may present substantial hurdles for adaptive management strategies focused on maintaining and enhancing forest ecosystem resilience in the context of global change and associated rapid climate change.

}, keywords = {canopy gaps, disturbance, global change, seedlings, Tree range, tree species migration}, issn = {03781127}, doi = {10.1016/j.foreco.2018.07.049}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378112718309903}, author = {Woodall, C.W. and Westfall, J.A. and Anthony D{\textquoteright}Amato and Foster, J.R. and Walters, B.F.} } @mastersthesis {7585, title = {Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate on Bird Abundance Along Elevation Gradients in the Northern Appalachians}, volume = {Masters}, year = {2018}, school = {University of Massachusetts}, type = {Masters}, address = {Amherst}, abstract = {

The stratification of bird species along elevational gradients is widely reported, with montane bird communities typically characterized by distinctive species occurring in relatively small and isolated populations; as such, these species are the subject of considerable interest to ecologists and conservationists. The stratification of species along elevation is largely attributed to compressed climatic zonation. Recent evidence that bird species are shifting up in elevation has fueled speculation that these species are tracking their climactic niches in response to climate change. However, there is also evidence plant communities are shifting in elevation, presenting a potential additional mechanism explaining changes observed in the bird community. Uncertainty as to the degree to which climate directly influences bird abundance versus the degree to which climate indirectly influences bird abundance via habitat composition and structure represents a key impediment to understanding the ecology of these species in montane environments. To address this question I measured species abundance, habitat characteristics, and temperature at 150 survey points located along 15 elevational transects in the Presidential Mountains of New Hampshire in the summers of 2014 and 2015. I used N-mixture models to correct for imperfect detection of species and structural equation models, incorporating abundance, habitat, temperature, and precipitation derived from a downscaled regional dataset to assign variation to the direct and indirect effects of climate upon birds. Analysis of 21 species revealed species-specific patterns on how climate exerts direct effects and indirect effects mediated by forest composition and structure on bird abundance. This work represents an important contribution to the ecological understanding of the pathways by which climate influences bird abundance. Finding that 62\% of species experience both direct and indirect effects of climate, with 62\% experiencing stronger direct than indirect effects, these results underscore the vulnerability of these species to climate change. With 81\% of species found to experience indirect effects of climate via forests, these findings indicate great conservation value of maintaining forest habitat amidst climate change. Overall, this information will facilitate the refinement of predictive models of the abundance of montane bird species and represents an approach that will advance future investigations of climate effects in the Northern Appalachians and other systems.

}, keywords = {bird abundance along elevation gradients, climate change, maintaining forest habitat amid climate change, montane bird, Northern Appalachians}, url = {https://scholarworks.umass.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1597\&context=masters_theses_2}, author = {Duclos, Thomas and King, David I.} } @mastersthesis {7573, title = {Direct and Indirect Effects of Climate on Bird Abundance Along Elevation Gradients in the Northern Appalachians}, volume = {Master of Science (M.S.)}, year = {2018}, school = {University of Massachusetts}, type = {Master}, address = {Amherst}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {bird abundance, climate change, Northern Appalachians}, url = {https://scholarworks.umass.edu/masters_theses_2/555/}, author = {Timothy Duclos and David I. King} } @article {7313, title = {Discontinuities in soil strength contribute to destabilization of nutrient-enriched creeks}, journal = {Ecosphere}, volume = {9}, year = {2018}, month = {Jan-08-2018}, pages = {e02329}, abstract = {

In a whole-ecosystem, nutrient addition experiment in the Plum Island Sound Estuary (Massachusetts), we tested the effects of nitrogen enrichment on the carbon and nitrogen contents, respiration, and strength of marsh soils. We measured soil shear strength within and across vegetation zones. We found significantly higher soil percent organic matter, carbon, and nitrogen in the long-term enriched marshes and higher soil respiration rates with longer duration of enrichment. The soil strength was similar in magnitude across depths and vegetation zones in the reference creeks, but showed signs of significant nutrient-mediated alteration in enriched creeks where shear strength at rooting depths of the low marsh{\textendash}high marsh interface zone was significantly lower than at the sub-rooting depths or in the creek bank vegetation zone. To more closely examine the soil strength of the rooting (10{\textendash}30\ cm) and sub-rooting (40{\textendash}60\ cm) depths in the interface and creek bank vegetation zones, we calculated a vertical shear strength differential between these depths. We found significantly lower differentials in shear strength (rooting depth\ \<\ sub-rooting depths) in the enriched creeks and in the interface zones. The discontinuities in the vertical and horizontal shear strength across the enriched marshes may contribute to observed fracturing and slumping occurring in the marsh systems. Tide gauge data also showed a pattern of rapid sea level rise for the period of the study, and changes in plant distribution patterns were indicative of increased flooding. Longer exposure times to nutrient-enriched waters and increased hydraulic energy associated with sea level rise may exacerbate creek bank sloughing. Additional research is needed, however, to better understand the interactions of nutrient enrichment and sea level rise on soil shear strength and stability of tidal salt marshes.

}, keywords = {eutrophication, marsh loss, sea level rise, soil shear strength, wetland soil}, doi = {10.1002/ecs2.2329}, url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/ecs2.2329}, author = {Wigand, Cathleen and Watson, Elizabeth B. and Martin, Rose and Johnson, David S. and Warren, R. Scott and Hanson, Alana and Davey, Earl and Johnson, Roxanne and Deegan, Linda} } @article {6681, title = {A decision support mapper for conserving stream fish habitats of the Northeast Climate Science Center region}, year = {2017}, month = {04/2017}, type = {Final Report}, abstract = {

Human impacts occurring throughout the Northeast and Midwest United States, including urbanization,\ agriculture, and dams, have multiple effects on the region{\textquoteright}s streams which support economically valuable stream fishes. Changes in climate are expected to lead to additional impacts in stream habitats and fish assemblages in multiple ways, including changing stream water temperatures. To manage streams for current impacts and future changes, managers need region-wide information for decision-making and developing proactive management strategies. Our project met that need by integrating results of a current condition assessment of stream habitats based on fish response to human land use, water quality impairment, and fragmentation by dams and road crossings with estimates of which stream habitats may change in the future. Results are available for all streams in the NE CSC region through a spatially-explicit, web-based viewer (FishTail). With this tool, managers can evaluate how streams of interest are currently impacted by land uses and assess if those habitats may change with climate. These results, available in a comparable way throughout the NE CSC, provide natural\ resource managers, decision-makers, and the public with a wealth of information to better protect and conserve stream fishes and their habitats.

}, keywords = {climate change, land-use, Stream fish habitats, Temperature, Water quality}, url = {https://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5900aefbe4b0c2e071a84b0a}, author = {Wesley Daniel}, editor = {Nick Sievert and Dana M. Infante and Joanna Whittier and Jana Stewart and Craig Paukert and Kyle Herreman} } @article {7089, title = {Describing habitat suitability of bobcats ( Lynx rufus ) using several sources of information obtained at multiple spatial scales}, journal = {Mammalian Biology}, volume = {82}, year = {2017}, month = {Jan-01-2017}, pages = {17 - 26}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {camera traps, Citizen science, GPS telemetry, Hierarchy, Incidental sightings, Lynx rufus, Species distribution model}, issn = {16165047}, doi = {10.1016/j.mambio.2016.10.002}, url = {https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S161650471630146X?via\%3Dihub}, author = {Reed, Gregory C. and Litvaitis, John A. and Ellingwood, Mark and Tate, Patrick and Broman, Derick J.A. and Alexej P. K. Sir{\'e}n and Carroll, Rory P.} } @article {6793, title = {Designing Sustainable Landscapes Project Executive Summary Report}, year = {2017}, month = {03/2017}, institution = {UMass Amherst}, type = {Executive Summary Report}, abstract = {

The overall purpose of this project (known colloquially as the\ Designing Sustainable Landscapes\ project, or\ DSL\ for short) is to assess the capability of current and potential future landscapes, currently within the extent of the Northeast United States (13 states), to provide integral ecosystems and suitable habitat for a suite of focal (e.g., representative) species, and provide guidance for strategic habitat conservation. To meet this goal, we developed the\ Landscape Change, Assessment and Design\ (LCAD)\ model, as described in the documentation (see documentation page). This project is supported primarily by\ the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative (NALCC), with additional support from the Northeast Climate Science Center (NECSC) and the University of Massachusetts - Amherst.

}, url = {http://jamba.provost.ads.umass.edu/web/lcc/DSL_documentation_exec_summary.pdfl}, author = {McGarigal K. and Compton B and Plunkett EB and Deluca, William V. and Grand J.} } @article {6909, title = {Developing a translational ecology workforce}, journal = {Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment}, volume = {15}, year = {2017}, month = {Jan-12-2017}, pages = {587 - 596}, abstract = {

We define a translational ecologist as a professional ecologist with diverse disciplinary expertise and skill sets, as well as a suitable personal disposition, who engages across social, professional, and disciplinary boundaries to partner with decision makers to achieve practical environmental solutions. Becoming a translational ecologist requires specific attention to obtaining critical non-scientific disciplinary breadth and skills that are not typically gained through graduate-level education. Here, we outline a need for individuals with broad training in interdisciplinary skills, use our personal experiences as a basis for assessing the types of interdisciplinary skills that would benefit potential translational ecologists, and present steps that interested ecologists may take toward becoming translational. Skills relevant to translational ecologists may be garnered through personal experiences, informal training, short courses, fellowships, and graduate programs, among others. We argue that a translational ecology workforce is needed to bridge the gap between science and natural resource decisions. Furthermore, we argue that this task is a cooperative responsibility of individuals interested in pursuing these careers, educational institutions interested in training scientists for professional roles outside of academia, and employers seeking to hire skilled workers who can foster stakeholder-engaged decision making.

}, keywords = {steak holder engaged, translational ecology}, doi = {10.1002/fee.1732 }, url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/fee.1732}, author = {Schwartz, Mark W and Hiers, J Kevin and Davis, Frank W and Garfin, Gregg M and Stephen T Jackson and Terando, Adam J and Woodhouse, Connie A and T. L. Morelli and Williamson, Matthew A and Brunson, Mark W} } @article {6917, title = {Development of dynamically-based 21st century projections of snow, lake ice and winter severity for the Great Lakes Basin to guide wildlife-based adaptation planning, with emphasis on deer and waterfowl}, year = {2017}, month = {12/2017}, type = {Final Project Report}, abstract = {

We developed high-resolution climate projections for the mid- and late 21st century across the Great Lakes region, including the Midwest and Northeast United States and southern Canada. We applied a regional climate model that addresses future changes in Great Lakes{\textquoteright} water temperatures, ice cover, and evaporation, which critically impact lake-effect snowfall. This new dataset is highly valuable, given that most global climate models applied in the reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and National Climate Assessment either completely lack the Great Lakes or largely under-represent their coverage and impacts. After quantifying projected changes in weather severity based on air temperature and snow depth, we examined the impacts on dabbling duck migration and white-tailed deer survival. Future delays in the southward migration of dabbling ducks during the autumn-winter will increase foraging pressures in the Great Lakes region and need for available wetlands, while negatively impacting hunting and birdwatching in the southern states.

}, keywords = {adaptation planning, deer, Great Lakes, lake ice, snow, Waterfowl, Wildlife}, url = {https://necsc.umass.edu/projects/development-dynamically-based-21st-century-projections-snow-lake-ice-and-winter-severity-gr}, author = {Notaro, Michael} } @article {7027, title = {Different influences on the tropical Pacific SST gradient from natural and anthropogenic forcing}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {38}, year = {2017}, month = {12-October-2017}, pages = {2015 - 2028}, abstract = {

The influences of natural forcings (i.e. solar radiation and volcanic aerosol) and anthropogenic forcings (i.e. greenhouse gases) on the tropical Pacific zonal sea-surface temperature (SST) gradient are investigated through numerical sensitivity experiments, forced by natural forcing, anthropogenic forcing, or full forcing (both natural and anthropogenic forcing) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) over the past two millennia. Under full forcing, during the present warming period (PWP; 1901{\textendash}1999), the Pacific SST shows a larger warming over the tropical Pacific region than the subtropical Pacific region. This pattern is composed of an El Ni{\~n}o-like SST gradient (due to the greenhouse gas forcing) and a La Ni{\~n}a-like SST gradient (due to natural forcing). Two sensitivity experiments, the PWP under greenhouse gas forcing and the medieval warming period (MWP; 751{\textendash}1250) under natural forcing, were used to examine the mechanisms. The results showed that under the greenhouse gas forcing, the larger warming over the eastern tropical Pacific is induced by an increased surface net heat flux, which is mainly caused by short-wave radiation and long-wave radiation. Under natural forcing, a larger warming is induced over the western tropical Pacific by changes in the ocean vertical heat transportation, caused by surface wind anomalies

}, keywords = {anthropogenic forcing, natural forcing, tropical Pacific SST gradient}, doi = {10.1002/joc.5313}, url = {https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5313}, author = {Ning, Liang and Liu, Jian and Wang, Zhiyuan and Bradley, Raymond S.} } @article {6875, title = {Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change}, journal = {Ecosphere}, volume = {8}, year = {2017}, month = {Jan-07-2017}, pages = {e01890}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {climate, forest succession, landscape change, wildlife conservation}, doi = {10.1002/ecs2.1890}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ecs2.1890/full}, author = {Bonnot, Thomas W. and Thompson, Frank R. and Millspaugh, Joshua J.} } @article {6589, title = {Density-dependent vulnerability of forest ecosystems to drought}, journal = {Journal of Applied Ecology}, year = {2016}, month = {Dec-10-2016}, abstract = {

Climate models predict increasing drought intensity and frequency for many regions, which may have negative consequences for tree recruitment, growth, and mortality, as well as forest ecosystem services. Furthermore, practical strategies for minimizing vulnerability to drought are limited. Tree population density, a metric of tree abundance in a given area, is a primary driver of competitive intensity among trees, which influences tree growth and mortality. Manipulating tree population density may be a mechanism for moderating drought-induced stress and growth reductions, although the relationship between tree population density and tree drought vulnerability remains poorly quantified, especially across climatic gradients.
In this study, we examined three long-term forest ecosystem experiments in two widely-distributed North American pine species, ponderosa pine\ Pinus ponderosa\ (Lawson \& C. Lawson) and red pine\ Pinus resinosa\ (Aiton), to better elucidate the relationship between tree population density, growth, and drought. These experiments span a broad latitude and aridity range and include tree population density treatments that have been purposefully maintained for several decades. We investigated how tree population density influenced resistance (growth during drought) and resilience (growth after drought compared to pre-drought growth) of stand-level growth during and after documented drought events.
Our results show that relative tree population density was negatively related to drought resistance and resilience, indicating that trees growing at lower densities were less vulnerable to drought. This result was apparent in all three forest ecosystems, and was consistent across species, stand age, and drought intensity.
Synthesis and applications. Our results highlighted that managing pine forest ecosystems at low tree population density represents a promising adaptive strategy for reducing the adverse impacts of drought on forest growth in coming decades. Nonetheless, the broader applicability of our findings to other types of forest ecosystems merits additional investigation.

}, keywords = {climate change adaptation, Drought impacts, ecosystem services, Pinus ponderosa, Pinus resinosa, Semi-arid forests, Temperate forests, Thinning, Tree population density}, doi = {10.1111/1365-2664.12847}, url = {http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2664.12847/abstract}, author = {Bottero, Alessandra and Anthony D{\textquoteright}Amato and Palik, Brian J. and Bradford, John B. and Fraver, Shawn and Battaglia, Mike A. and Asherin, Lance A.} } @article {6489, title = {Detecting Unusual Temporal Patterns in Fisheries Time Series Data}, journal = {Transactions of the American Fisheries Society}, volume = {145}, year = {2016}, month = {Mar-07-2016}, pages = {786 - 794}, abstract = {


}, keywords = {Bayesian model, ecosystem dynamics, fisheries, temporal dynamics, temporal patterns}, issn = {0002-8487}, doi = {10.1080/00028487.2016.1150879}, url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00028487.2016.1150879}, author = {Wagner, Tyler and Midway, Stephen R. and Tiffany E. Vidal and Irwin, Brian J. and Jackson, James R.} } @article {6517, title = {Developing Fish Trophic Interaction Indicators of Climate Change for the Great Lakes}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, type = {Final Report}, abstract = {

This project addressed regional climate change effects on aquatic food webs in the Great Lakes. We sought insights by examining Lake Erie as a representative system with a high level of anthropogenic impacts, strong nutrient gradients, seasonal hypoxia, and spatial overlap of cold- and cool-water fish guilds. In Lake Erie and in large embayments throughout the Great Lakes basin, this situation is a concern for fishery managers, as climate change may exacerbate hypoxia and reduce habitat volume for some species. We examined fish community composition, fine-scale distribution, prey availability, diets, and biochemical tracers for dominant fishes from study areas with medium-high nutrient levels (mesotrophic, Fairport study area), and low nutrient levels (oligotrophic, Erie study area). This multi-year database (2011-2013) provides the ability to contrast years with wide variation in rainfall, winter ice-cover, and thermal stratification. In addition, multiple indicators of dietary and distributional responses to environmental variability will allow resource managers to select the most informative approach for addressing specific climate change questions. Our results support the incorporation of some relatively simple and cost-efficient approaches into existing agency monitoring programs to track the near-term condition status of fish and fish community composition by functional groupings. Other metrics appear better suited for understanding longer-term changes, and may take more resources to implement on an ongoing basis. Although we hypothesized that dietary overlap and similarity in selected species would be sharply different during thermal stratification and hypoxic episodes, we found little evidence of this. Instead, to our surprise, this study found that fish tended to aggregate at the edges of hypoxia, highlighting potential spatial changes in catch efficiency of the fishery. This work has had several positive impacts on a wide range of resource management and stakeholder activities, most notably in Lake Erie. The results were instrumental in the development of an interim decision rule for dealing with data collected during hypoxic events to improve stock assessment of Yellow Perch. In addition, novel findings from this study regarding spatial and temporal variability in hypoxia have aided US-Environmental Protection Agency in the development of a modified sampling protocol to more accurately quantify the central basin hypoxic zone, and this directly addressed a goal of the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement of 2012 to reduce the extent and severity of hypoxia. Finally, the study areas developed in this project formed the basis for food web sampling in the 2014 bi-national Coordinated Science and Monitoring Initiative work in Lake Erie.\ 

}, keywords = {climate change, fish community structure, fish condition, fish diets, Great Lakes, hydroacoustics, stable isotope, trophic, Water quality}, author = {Kraus, Richard T}, editor = {Knight, Carey T and Gorman, Anne Marie and Kocovsky, Patrick M. and Weidel, Brian C. and Rogers, Mark W.} } @article {7367, title = {Development and assessment of indices to determine stream fish vulnerability to climate change and habitat alteration}, journal = {Ecological Indicators}, volume = {67}, year = {2016}, month = {Jan-08-2016}, pages = {403 - 416}, abstract = {

Understanding the future impacts of climate and land use change are critical for long-term biodiver- sity conservation. We developed and compared two indices to assess the vulnerability of stream fish in Missouri, USA based on species environmental tolerances, rarity, range size, dispersal ability and on the average connectivity of the streams occupied by each species. These two indices differed in how environmental tolerance was classified (i.e., vulnerability to habitat alteration, changes in stream temper- ature, and changes to flow regimes). Environmental tolerance was classified based on measured species responses to habitat alteration, and extremes in stream temperatures and flow conditions for one index, while environmental tolerance for the second index was based on species{\textquoteright} traits. The indices were com- pared to determine if vulnerability scores differed by index or state listing status. We also evaluated the spatial distribution of species classified as vulnerable to habitat alteration, changes in stream tempera- ture, and change in flow regimes. Vulnerability scores were calculated for all 133 species with the trait association index, while only 101 species were evaluated using the species response index, because 32 species lacked data to analyze for a response. Scores from the trait association index were greater than the species response index. This is likely due to the species response index{\textquoteright}s inability to evaluate many rare species, which generally had high vulnerability scores for the trait association index. The indices were consistent in classifying vulnerability to habitat alteration, but varied in their classification of vulnera- bility due to increases in stream temperature and alterations to flow regimes, likely because extremes in current climate may not fully capture future conditions and their influence on stream fish communities. Both indices showed higher mean vulnerability scores for listed species than unlisted species, which provided a coarse measure of validation. Our indices classified species identified as being in need of con- servation by the state of Missouri as highly vulnerable. The distribution of vulnerable species in Missouri showed consistent patterns between indices, with the more forest-dominated, groundwater fed streams in the Ozark subregion generally having higher numbers and proportions of vulnerable species per site than subregions that were agriculturally dominated with more overland flow. These results suggest that both indices will identify similar habitats as conservation action targets despite discrepancies in the clas- sification of vulnerable species. Our vulnerability assessment provides a framework that can be refined and used in other regions.

}, keywords = {climate change, Freshwater conservation, stream fish, Traits, vulnerability assessment}, issn = {1470160X}, doi = {10.1016/j.ecolind.2016.03.013}, url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1470160X16301170}, author = {Sievert, Nicholas A. and Paukert, Craig P. and Tsang, Yin-Phan and Dana M. Infante} } @article {6365, title = {Development and Evaluation of High-Resolution Climate Simulations over the Mountainous Northeastern United States}, journal = {Journal of Hydrometeorology}, volume = {17}, year = {2016}, chapter = {881}, abstract = {

The mountain regions of the northeastern United States are a critical socioeconomic resource for Vermont, New York State, New Hampshire, Maine, and southern Quebec. While global climate models (GCMs) are important tools for climate change risk assessment at regional scales, even the increased spatial resolution of statistically downscaled GCMs (commonly ~ 1/8{\textdegree}) is not sufficient for hydrologic, ecologic, and land-use modeling of small watersheds within the mountainous Northeast. To address this limitation, an ensemble of topographically downscaled, high-resolution (30"), daily 2-m maximum air temperature; 2-m minimum air temperature; and precipitation simulations are developed for the mountainous Northeast by applying an additional level of downscaling to intermediately downscaled ( 1/8{\textdegree}) data using high-resolution topography and station observations. First, observed relationships between 2-m air temperature and elevation and between precipitation and elevation are derived. Then, these relationships are combined with spatial interpolation to enhance the resolution of intermediately downscaled GCM simulations. The resulting topographically downscaled dataset is analyzed for its ability to reproduce station observations. Topographic downscaling adds value to intermediately downscaled maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature at high-elevation stations, as well as moderately improves domain-averaged maximum and minimum 2-m air temperature. Topographic downscaling also improves mean precipitation but not daily probability distributions of precipitation. Overall, the utility of topographic downscaling is dependent on the initial bias of the intermediately downscaled product and the magnitude of the elevation adjustment. As the initial bias or elevation adjustment increases, more value is added to the topographically downscaled product.

}, keywords = {applications, circulation, Climate models, DYNAMICS, geographic location/entity, mathematical and statistical techniques, models, North America, observational techniques and algorithms, regional effects, surface observations, topographic effects}, doi = {10.1175/JHM-D-15-0052.1}, author = {Winter, Jonathan M. and Beckage, Brian and Bucini, Gabriela and Clemins, Patrick J} } @article {6603, title = {Discontinuities concentrate mobile predators: quantifying organism-environment interactions at a seascape scale}, journal = {Ecosphere}, volume = {7}, year = {2016}, month = {26-Feb-2016}, abstract = {

Understanding environmental drivers of spatial patterns is an enduring ecological problem that is critical for effective biological conservation. Discontinuities (ecologically meaningful habitat breaks), both naturally occurring (e.g., river confluence, forest edge, drop-off) and anthropogenic (e.g., dams, roads), can influence the distribution of highly mobile organisms that have land- or seascape scale ranges. A geomorphic discontinuity framework, expanded to include ecological patterns, provides a way to incorporate important but irregularly distributed physical features into organism{\textendash}environment relationships. Here, we test if migratory striped bass (Morone saxatilis) are consistently concentrated by spatial discontinuities and why. We quantified the distribution of 50 acoustically tagged striped bass at 40 sites within Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts during four-monthly surveys relative to four physical discontinuities (sandbar, confluence, channel network, drop-off), one continuous physical feature (depth variation), and a geographic location variable (region). Despite moving throughout the estuary, striped bass were consistently clustered in the middle geographic region at sites with high sandbar area, close to channel networks, adjacent to complex confluences, with intermediate levels of bottom unevenness, and medium sized drop-offs. In addition, the highest striped bass concentrations occurred at sites with the greatest additive physical heterogeneity (i.e., where multiple discontinuities co-occurred). The need to incorporate irregularly distributed features in organism{\textendash}environment relationships will increase as high-quality telemetry and GIS data accumulate for mobile organisms. The spatially explicit approach we used to address this challenge can aid both researchers who seek to understand the impact of predators on ecosystems and resource managers who require new approaches for biological conservation.

}, keywords = {coastal, ecology, Estuary, striped bass}, doi = {10.1002/ecs2.1226}, url = {https://esajournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/ecs2.1226}, author = {Kennedy, Cristina G. and Mather, Martha E. and Smith, Joseph M. and John Finn and Deegan, Linda A.}, editor = {Jones, J.} } @mastersthesis {7271, title = {Drought Management Using Streamflow Forecasts: A Case Study of the City of Baltimore Water Supply}, year = {2016}, month = {05/2016}, school = {Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst}, type = {Master}, address = {Amherst MA}, abstract = {

This research investigates forecast skill in predicting the onset and severity of drought in the Susquehanna River Basin. Streamflow forecasts developed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration{\textquoteright}s (NOAA{\textquoteright}s) Mid-Atlantic River Forecast Center (MARFC) are incorporated with other key drought indices in an aggregate drought index to predict and classify drought severity and to trigger drought mitigation actions. Climate drought index parameters for the Susquehanna River Basin, such as the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Days of Storage Remaining Index (DSR), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), are evaluated by their ability to detect water supply droughts of record. Drought indicators and streamflow forecasts are evaluated in the Drought Action Response Tool (DART), a systems model created specifically for this research. The value of drought indices constructed by combining system and climate status parameters with streamflow forecasts is demonstrated through a case study on the City of Baltimore water supply. Early warning skill improves using the aggregate indices, providing two advantages to the systems under study: 1) maintaining higher reservoir storage in Baltimore{\textquoteright}s system that results in improved water quality and 2) Baltimore{\textquoteright}s peak water demands from the Susquehanna River will decrease during low-flow conditions with improved timing to supplemental usage during drought conditions. A drought measure, Days of Supply Remaining (DSR), constructed from MARFC forecasts with reservoir storage and demand estimations is recommended for incorporation into the City of Baltimore{\textquoteright}s Drought Management Plan, to facilitate proactive drought response and increased system performance.

}, doi = {10.7275/c4c4-pz27}, author = {Kathryn Booras} } @article {7055, title = {Dynamics of a fringe mangrove forest detected by Landsat images in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam}, journal = {Earth Surface Processes and Landforms}, volume = {41}, year = {2016}, month = {May-3-2016}, pages = {2024 - 2037}, abstract = {

Mangrove forests dominate many tropical coastlines and are one of the most bio-diverse and productive environments on Earth. However, little is known of the large-scale dynamics of mangrove canopies and how they colonize intertidal areas. Here we focus on a fringe mangrove forest located in the Mekong River Delta, Vietnam; a fast prograding shoreline where mangroves are encroaching tidal flats. The spatial and temporal evolution of the mangrove canopy is studied using a time series of Landsat images spanning two decades as well as Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) elevation data. Our results show that fast mangrove expansion is followed by an increase in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the newly established canopy. We observe three different dynamics of the mangrove fringe: in the southwest part of the fringe, near a deltaic distributary where the fringe boundary is linear, the canopy expands uniformly on the tidal flats with a high colonization rate and high NDVI values. In the northeast part of the fringe, near another distributary, the canopy expands at a much lower rate with low NDVI values. In the fringe center, far from the river mouths, the fringe boundary is highly irregular and mangroves expansion in characterized by sparse vegetated patches displaying low NDVI values. We ascribe these different dynamics to wave action and southwest longshore transport triggered by energetic northeasterly monsoons during winter. We further link the large-scale dynamics of the fringe to small-scale physical disturbances (waves, erosion and deposition) that might prevent the establishment of mangrove seedlings. Based on these results, we include mangrove encroachment in an already published conceptual model of progradation of the Mekong River Delta. We conclude that high NDVI values and a constantly linear vegetation{\textendash}water interface are indicative of stable mangrove canopies undergoing fast expansion, probably triggered by sediment availability at the shore. Our results can be applied more generally to mangrove forests growing in minerogenic and high tidal range environments with high sediment inputs.

}, keywords = {coastal geomorphology, ecogeomorphology, mangrove, Mekong River Delta, Remote sensing}, doi = {10.1002/esp.3968}, url = {http://doi.wiley.com/10.1002/esp.3968}, author = {Nardin, William and Locatelli, Silvia and Valerie J. Pasquarella and Rulli, Maria Cristina and C.E. Woodcock and Fagherazzi, Sergio} } @mastersthesis {7587, title = {Distribution Patterns of Melampus Bidentatus and Their Implications on the Effects of Climate Change on Salt Marsh Animal Populations.}, volume = {Bachelor}, year = {2015}, type = {Undergraduate Honors}, abstract = {

Climate change and its associated effects such as sea-level rise and increased temperature are critical concerns for salt marsh ecosystems. We have just begun to understand the effects of climate change on salt marsh plant communities, and while work has been done to determine the effects of these changes on different bird species, none has focused on salt marsh invertebrates. The coffee-bean snail, Melampus bidentatus, is a numerically dominant high-marsh invertebrate with a wide geographic distribution. Given that it is a pulmonate ({\textquoteright}air-breathing{\textquoteright}) gastropod and susceptible to desiccation effects, it may be a useful animal model for understanding potential effects of sea-level rise, which will increase inundation and temperature of animal communities. One prediction of sea-level rise is a shift in marsh vegetation patterns, which could create a change in Melampus distribution. We first sampled eight marshes to determine density and size-class patterns of Melampus across three habitats: creek-side Spartina alterniflora, Sparina patens, and short-form Spartina alterniflora. We found that significantly larger Melampus were found in the short-form Spartina alterniflora while smaller Melampus were found in the Spartina patens, suggesting that Spartina patens acts as a nursery habitat for this species. Melampus were not found in the creek-side Spartina alterniflora. We then conducted a series of experimental field and lab manipulations to assess potential mechanisms driving these patterns and to assess the potential impact of climate change on this abundant marsh gastropod. Thermal, desiccation, and predation stress were all important factors in producing the size-class distribution pattern of Melampus, preventing small Melampus from inhabiting the short-form Spartina alterniflora and all Melampus from inhabiting the creek-side Spartina alterniflora. Our results suggest snails will physiologically be able to survive increased inundation, however, will be exposed to increased predation. Melampus will be more susceptible to increased temperatures and desiccation stress through shifts in vegetation patterns. We know that with climate change, vegetation patterns may shift to increased short-form Spartina alterniflora. Therefore, this could lead to a change in the size pattern distribution of Melampus on salt marshes and possibly a decrease in population due to lower survivorship through increased thermal stress. Changes in the Melampus population could be used to determine the effects of climate change on other salt marsh invertebrate populations such as the saltmarsh amphipod, Orchestia grillus, and the salt marsh isopod, Philoscia vittata, which are also susceptible to thermal and predation stresses. A loss of these species over time could lead to a change in ecosystem function.\ 

}, keywords = {climate change, coffee bean snail, Melampus bidentatus, salt marsh}, url = {http://diginole.lib.fsu.edu/islandora/search/Sea-level\%20rise\%20effects\%20on\%20the\%20coffee-bean\%20snail\%2C\%20Melampus\%20bidentatus?type=edismax}, author = {Bethany Williams} } @article {1823, title = {Drivers of spatial and temporal variability in estuarine food webs}, journal = {Marine Ecology Progress Series}, volume = {533}, year = {2015}, month = {08/2015}, pages = {67 - 77}, abstract = {A critical challenge to understanding the response of ecosystems to anthropogenic drivers is characterizing the spatial and temporal variability of controls on food web dynamics. We used a long-term (9 yr) isotope survey and a community metric isotope approach to determine the major physical factors influencing the source of energy to estuarine food webs. Overall, food web architecture was similar throughout the estuary, but there were some spatial differences. We observed greater overall variability in the primary production source to the food web in the upper estuary (which is more influenced by freshwater inputs) compared with the middle and lower estuary. The trophic level of one dominant species, mummichog Fundulus heteroclitus, was also highly correlated with tidal height, which controls high marsh access in the middle estuary. We also observed a strong influence of freshwater input on the benthic-pelagic coupling in the upper estuary. Our work demonstrates that the temporal and spatial variability of food webs in estuarine systems is highly coupled to physical drivers.}, keywords = {Estuarine, Food webs, Long-term, stable isotopes}, issn = {1616-1599}, doi = {10.3354/meps11389}, author = {Nelson, J. A. and Deegan, Linda A. and Garritt, R.} } @article {1703, title = {Dynamic hypoxic zones in Lake Erie compress fish habitat, altering vulnerability to fishing gears}, journal = {Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences}, year = {2015}, month = {03/2015}, pages = {1 - 10}, abstract = {Seasonal degradation of aquatic habitats from hypoxia occurs in numerous freshwater and coastal marine systems and can result in direct mortality or displacement of fish. Yet, fishery landings from these systems are frequently unresponsive to changes in the severity and extent of hypoxia, and population-scale effects have been difficult to measure except in extreme hypoxic conditions with hypoxia-sensitive species. We investigated fine-scale temporal and spatial variability in dissolved oxygen in Lake Erie as it related to fish distribution and catch efficiencies of both active (bottom trawls) and passive (trap nets) fishing gears. Temperature and dissolved oxygen loggers placed near the edge of the hypolimnion exhibited much higher than expected variability. Hypoxic episodes of variable durations were frequently punctuated by periods of normoxia, consistent with high-frequency internal waves. High-resolution interpolations of water quality and hydroacoustic surveys suggest that fish habitat is compressed during hypoxic episodes, resulting in higher fish densities near the edges of hypoxia. At fixed locations with passive commercial fishing gear, catches with the highest values occurred when bottom waters were hypoxic for intermediate proportions of time. Proximity to hypoxia explained significant variation in bottom trawl catches, with higher catch rates near the edge of hypoxia. These results emphasize how hypoxia may elevate catch rates in various types of fishing gears, leading to a lack of association between indices of hypoxia and fishery landings. Increased catch rates of fish at the edges of hypoxia have important implications for stock assessment models that assume catchability is spatially homogeneous.}, keywords = {fish habitat, hypoxia, Lake Erie, vulnerability}, issn = {1205-7533}, doi = {10.1139/cjfas-2014-0517}, author = {Kraus, Richard T. and Knight, Carey T. and Farmer, Troy M. and Gorman, Ann Marie and Collingsworth, Paris D. and Warren, Glenn J. and Kocovsky, Patrick M. and Conroy, Joseph D. and Prairie, Yves} } @article {1911, title = {Dynamical downscaling-based projections of Great Lakes{\textquoteright} water levels}, journal = {Journal of Climate}, year = {2015}, month = {12/18/2015}, abstract = {

Projections of regional climate, net basin supply (NBS), and water levels are developed for the mid- and late 21st century across the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin. Two state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) are dynamically downscaled using a regional climate model (RCM), interactively coupled to a one-dimensional lake model, and then a hydrologic routing model is forced with time series of perturbed NBS. The dynamical downscaling and coupling with a lake model to represent the Great Lakes create added value beyond the parent GCM in terms of simulated seasonal cycles of temperature, precipitation, and surface fluxes. However, limitations related to this rudimentary treatment of the Great Lakes result in warm summer biases in lake temperatures, excessive ice cover, and an abnormally early peak in lake evaporation. While the downscaling of both GCMs led to consistent projections of increases in annual air temperature, precipitation, and all NBS components (over-lake precipitation, basin-wide runoff, and lake evaporation), the resulting projected water level trends are opposite in sign. Clearly, it is not sufficient to correctly simulate the signs of the projected change in each NBS component but also their relative magnitudes. The potential risk of more frequent episodes of lake levels below the low water datum, a critical shipping threshold, is explored.

}, issn = {1520-0442}, doi = {10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00847.1}, url = {https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00847.1}, author = {Notaro, Michael and Bennington, Val and Lofgren, Brent} } @article {1689, title = {Disturbance and diversity of wood-inhabiting fungi: effects of canopy gaps and downed woody debris}, journal = {Biodiversity and Conservation}, volume = {23}, year = {2014}, month = {8/2014}, pages = {2155 - 2172}, abstract = {

Experimental canopy gap formation and additions of coarse woody debris (CWD) are techniques intended to mimic the disturbance regime and accelerate the development of northern hardwood forests. The effects of these techniques on biodiversity and ecosystem functioning were investigated by surveying the abundance and diversity of wood-inhabiting fungi in six treatments: (i) unharvested control, (ii) control + fenced to exclude deer, (iii) gap creation + fenced to exclude deer, (iv) gap creation, (v) gap creation + CWD addition, and (vi) CWD addition under closed-canopy. A total of 1,885 fungal occurrences (polyporoid and corticoid fruiting bodies) representing 130 species were recorded on 11 tree species, with eight fungal species accounting for 52 \% of all observations. A linear mixed model demonstrated significant differences in the abundance and diversity of wood-inhabiting fungi by treatment, with the gap creation + CWD addition treatment supporting the highest abundance and richness of fungal species. Non-metric multidimensional scaling demonstrated that stumps, sugar maple substrates, medium (20 to \<25 cm) and large-diameter (\>40 cm) substrates most strongly influenced fungal species occurrences. Rarefaction curves indicated that smaller diameter substrates (\<20 cm) supported a rich fungal community, yet substrates in the largest diameter class (\>40 cm) supported nearly 25 \% of all fungal species detected. Rarefaction curves also highlighted the importance of well-decayed substrates and minor host tree species. A subset of fungal species was significantly more abundant in gap treatments. The results indicate that wood-inhabiting fungi are responsive to forest management intended to promote the structural attributes of old-growth northern hardwood forests.

}, keywords = {biodiversity, Decay fungi, Gap-phase, northern hardwoods, restoration, Sugar maple}, issn = {1572-9710}, doi = {10.1007/s10531-014-0710-x}, author = {Brazee, Nicholas J. and Lindner, Daniel L. and Anthony D{\textquoteright}Amato and Fraver, Shawn and Forrester, Jodi A. and Mladenoff, David J.} } @article {845, title = {Densification and State Transition Across the Missouri Ozarks Landscape}, journal = {Ecosystems}, year = {2013}, abstract = {World-wide, some biomes are densifying, or increasing in dense woody vegetation, and shifting to alternative stable states. We quantified densification and state transition between forests ecosystems in historical (ca. 1815{\textendash}1850) and current (2004{\textendash}2008) surveys of the Missouri Ozark Highlands, a 5-million ha landscape in southern Missouri, USA. To estimate density of historical forests, we used the Morisita plotless density estimator and applied corrections for surveyor bias. For contemporary forests, we used known densities at plots to predict continuous densities with random forests, an ensemble regression tree method. We also calculated basal area and percent stocking to determine changes in wood volume. Historical forests had densities ranging from about 75 to 320 trees/ha. Current forest densities were about 2.3 times greater and more uniform, at about 300{\textendash}400 trees/ha (DBH >= 12.7 cm). Not all forests have increased in basal area and percent stocking because trees in contemporary forests are smaller in diameter than historical forests. Although oak species still are dominant (as defined by >=10\% composition), oak dominance is being replaced by many fire-sensitive species, of which only eastern redcedar and maples have become dominant. Densification and community changes in functional traits have produced a state transition from open oak forest ecosystems to predominantly closed eastern broadleaf forests in the Missouri Ozarks. This shift is not at equilibrium, as fire-sensitive species are continuing to increase and turnover in long-lived oaks is slow.}, keywords = {alternative stable state, eastern redcedar, encroachment, facilitation, fire suppression, juniper, mesophication, presettlement, regime shift}, issn = {1435-0629}, doi = {10.1007/s10021-013-9707-7}, author = {Hanberry, Brice B. and Kabrick, John M. and Hong He} } @article {649, title = {The distribution, diversity, and importance of cephalopods in top predator diets from offshore habitats of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean}, journal = {Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography}, year = {2013}, month = {6/2012}, pages = {182-192}, abstract = {Large pelagic predators were used as biological samplers to gain information on cephalopod diversity, abundance, distribution, and their role as prey in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. Fish predators were caught by recreational anglers in offshore waters of New England (NE; 2007{\textendash}2010), the Mid-Atlantic Bight (MAB; 2009{\textendash}2010) and the South Atlantic Bight (SAB; 2010{\textendash}2011). In total, 2362 cephalopods, including 22 species of squid and 4 octopods, were identified in the diets of 13 species of predatory fishes. Cephalopod body sizes were obtained for 1973 specimens through direct measurement of mantle lengths (ML) or estimated using lower rostral/hood lengths of lower beaks. Cephalopod diversity (number of species) was highest in predator diets from the SAB (N=19), intermediate in NE (N=18), and lowest in the MAB (N=9); however, differences may reflect unequal sampling effort among regions. The most important cephalopods across predator diets by number and frequency of occurrence were from the families Ommastrephidae, Argonautidae, Loliginidae, and Histioteuthidae. Shortfin squid (Illex illecebrosus) and paper nautilus (Argonauta sp.) were the most recurrent species identified across spatiotemporal scales; size distributions of these two species varied significantly among regions, and the largest individuals on average were found in the MAB. Results demonstrate that although pelagic predators consumed a broad range of cephalopod species, octopods and squids from the families Argonautidae and Ommastrephidae dominated the collective diets of numerous pelagic teleosts and elasmobranchs, and play a key role in offshore food-webs of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean. This study emphasizes the value of using predators as biological samplers to gain information on cephalopod biogeography, and as a potential approach to track ecosystem changes in this region due to environmental and anthropogenic stressors.}, keywords = {Argonautidae, Cephalopod diversity, Ommastrephidae, pelagic predators, trophic relationships}, issn = {09670645}, doi = {10.1016/j.dsr2.2012.06.004}, url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0967064512000859}, author = {Staudinger, Michelle D. and Juanes, F. and Salmon, B. and Teffer, A.K.} } @article {1348, title = {Divergent Roosting Habits of Rafinesque{\textquoteright}s Big-eared Bat and Southeastern Myotis During Winter Floods}, journal = {The American Midland Naturalist}, volume = {170}, year = {2013}, month = {07/2013}, pages = {158 - 170}, abstract = {Despite the importance of winter roosts to bat ecology, much less is known about tree roosts used by bats in winter than in summer. Rafinesque{\textquoteright}s big-eared bat (Corynorhinus rafinesquii) and southeastern myotis (Myotis austroriparius) are species of concern whose winter tree roost selection may be constrained by seasonal flooding in cypress-gum swamps. To evaluate winter roost selection by these species, we compared characteristics of winter roosts to trees not occupied in winter and to summer roost trees in the Oconee River floodplain, Laurens County, Georgia. We located 23 Rafinesque{\textquoteright}s big-eared bat winter roosts and 5 southeastern myotis winter roosts by climbing and visually inspecting hollow trees and by radio telemetry. We analyzed differences between used and unused trees in winter and between winter and summer roosts. Despite extensive flooding in winter, Rafinesque{\textquoteright}s big-eared bats roosted in cypress-gum swamps in summer and winter. Accordingly, they used similar large hollow water tupelo (Nyssa aquatica) in both seasons, although roost entrances were higher in winter. In contrast, southeastern myotis roosted in cypress-gum swamps in summer and switched to a diverse hardwood floodplain forest with shallower flood waters in winter. As a result they used smaller roosts in different tree species in winter than in summer. The divergent roosting habits in winter are likely due to the height of roost entrances in relation to flood waters. In summer Southeastern myotis use basal openings that are submerged during winter flooding, whereas Rafinesque{\textquoteright}s big-eared bats use openings located higher on the tree bole that are not submerged. Therefore, management for southeastern myotis may require provision of separate summer and winter roosting habitats.}, keywords = {Corynorhinus rafinesquii, Myotis austroriparius, roost selection}, issn = {1938-4238}, doi = {10.1674/0003-0031-170.1.158}, author = {Clement, Matthew J. and Castleberry, Steven B.} } @inbook {655, title = {Doryteuthis pealeii, Longfin inshore squid.}, booktitle = {Advances in Squid Biology, Ecology, and Fisheries}, year = {2013}, pages = {205-240}, publisher = {Nova Science Publishers, Inc.}, organization = {Nova Science Publishers, Inc.}, address = {Hauppauge, NY}, abstract = {The longfin inshore squid (formerly Loligo pealeii) has been a premier biomedical model organism in neuroscience for many decades, and since the 1800s has been the subject of a valuable commercial fishery. This loliginid squid species is widely distributed in the western North Atlantic Ocean from Newfoundland to Venezuela and tolerates a wide range of temperatures from 9-30{\textdegree}C. It is most abundant along the northeast coast of the US, where squids migrate inshore during the spring and summer, and offshore to canyons on the continental slope during winter. The current fishery has a large offshore winter component and a relatively smaller inshore component that targets animals as they migrate to spawn. Growth is exponential throughout the life cycle: average adult size is 14 {\textendash} 17 cm dorsal mantle length and the life span in the temperate range is estimated to be 9-12 months. Longfin squid play a vital role in the coastal food web of the western North Atlantic by serving as a link between higher and lower tropic levels. Extremely high consumption rates make longfin squid major predators and competitors of juvenile fishes, crustaceans, other squid species and conspecifics. In addition, numerous commercially and ecologically important finfishes, elasmobranchs, and marine mammals forage on longfin squid, and demonstrate shifts in predation that are dependent on predator and prey behavior, and seasonal availability in coastal waters. Predators that target adult squids and exhibit high predatory demand compete directly with the summer and winter commercial fishery for squid biomass. The biology of reproduction has been worked out in considerable detail. Squids in the northern ranges spawn inshore during spring and summer; those in the southern ranges throughout the year. The mating system is complex and flexible, and DNA fingerprinting combined with lab and field behavioral studies show that multiple paternity in egg capsules is widespread and common. A powerful contact pheromone that initiates extreme aggression in males has recently been discovered in the outer tunic of egg capsules. Overall, the life history of D. pealeii is characterized by very fast growth, predation on a wide variety of crustaceans and fishes, high daily mobility, substantial migrations, flexible reproductive tactics, and a short life span.}, keywords = {ecology, fisheries, Longfin inshore squid}, url = {https://www.novapublishers.com/catalog/product_info.php?products_id=46170}, author = {Hanlong, R T and Buresch, K and Moustahfid, H and Staudinger, Michelle D.}, editor = {Rosa, R and Pierce, G and O{\textquoteright}Dor, R} } @article {16, title = {Decision Support System for Optimizing Reservoir Operations Using Ensemble Streamflow Predictions}, journal = {Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management}, volume = {137}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {72}, abstract = {This paper investigates the value of ensemble streamflow predictions and energy price forecasts as aid to decision makers in scheduling the quantity and timing of reservoir releases for daily, weekly, and seasonal operations while meeting regulatory constraints. A decision support system (DSS) is described as it incorporates two integrated models of system operation: a simulation model that replicates general operating rules for the hydropower system and an optimization model that refines operations based upon forecasts of state variables. The DSS provides a series of recommendations for the quantity and timing of reservoir releases to optimize the economic value of the electrical energy produced, while balancing requirements and concerns related to flood control, environmental flows, and water supply. The DSS generates a range of optimal reservoir releases using an ensemble streamflow forecast and identifies robust operational solutions. The results indicate the value of the forecasts in improving system operation.}, keywords = {climate science center, Decision support systems, forecast, Hydropower, Optimization, Reservoir operation, Simulation}, author = {Alemu, Eset T. and Palmer, Richard N. and Austin S. Polebitski and Meaker, Bruce} } @article {13, title = {Developing coastal adaptation to climate change in the New York City infrastructure-shed: process, approach, tools, and strategies}, journal = {Climatic Change}, volume = {106}, year = {2011}, month = {5/2011}, pages = {93 - 127}, abstract = {While current rates of sea level rise and associated coastal flooding in the New York City region appear to be manageable by stakeholders responsible for communications, energy, transportation, and water infrastructure, projections for sea level rise and associated flooding in the future, especially those associated with rapid icemelt of the Greenland and West Antarctic Icesheets, may be outside the range of current capacity because extreme events might cause flooding beyond today{\textquoteright}s planning and preparedness regimes. This paper describes the comprehensive process, approach, and tools for adaptation developed by the New York City Panel on Climate Change (NPCC) in conjunction with the region{\textquoteright}s stakeholders who manage its critical infrastructure, much of which lies near the coast. It presents the adaptation framework and the sea-level rise and storm projections related to coastal risks developed through the stakeholder process. Climate change adaptation planning in New York City is characterized by a multi-jurisdictional stakeholder{\textendash}scientist process, state-of-the-art scientific projections and mapping, and development of adaptation strategies based on a risk-management approach.}, keywords = {New England Climate}, author = {Rosenzweig, Cynthia and Solecki, William D. and Blake, Reginald and Bowman, Malcolm and Faris, Craig and Gornitz, Vivien and Horton, Radley M. and Jacob, Klaus and LeBlanc, Alice and Leichenko, Robin and Linkin, Megan and Major, David C. and O{\textquoteright}Grady, Megan and Patrick, Lesley and Sussman, Edna and Yohe, Gary and Zimmerman, Rae} } @article {21, title = {Development and assessment of a landscape-scale ecological threat index for the Lower Colorado River Basin}, journal = {Ecological Indicators}, volume = {11}, year = {2011}, month = {03/2011}, pages = {304 - 310}, abstract = {Anthropogenic disturbances impact freshwater biota but are rarely incorporated into conservation planning due to the difficulties in quantifying threats. There is currently no widely accepted method to quantify disturbances, and determining how to measure threats to upstream catchments using disturbance metrics can be time consuming and subjective. We compared four watershed-scale ecological threat indices for the Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB) using landscape-level threats of land use (e.g., agricultural and urban lands), waterway development and diversions (e.g., number of canals, dams), and human development (e.g., road and railroads density, pollution sites). The LCRB is an ideal region to assess ecological threat indices because of the increasing need for conservation to ensure the persistence of native fishes in highly altered habitat. Each threat was measured for severity (i.e., level of influence on the upstream watershed) and frequency throughout each watershed; both severity and frequency were measured using two different methods. Severity values were based either on peer-reviewed literature and weighted in accordance to their published ecological impact, or assumed equal severity across stressors. Threat frequency was calculated according to either the presence/absence of each stressor, or on the relative density of each stressor in the watershed. Each measure of severity was combined with a measure of frequency, creating four ecological threat indices, and transformed to a 0{\textendash}100 scale. Threat indices were highly correlated (slopes of 0.94{\textendash}1.63; R2 of 0.82{\textendash}0.98), and were highest for watersheds close to urban centers, including Phoenix, Tucson, and Flagstaff, Arizona, and Las Vegas, Nevada. Road crossings and density appeared to be the most influential stressors in the index, but the removal of any individual stressor only changed the index by <5.1 units. Our results indicate that a simpler index with less subjectivity (i.e., presence/absence of a stressor in a watershed) provides similar results to the more subjective measure of threats (i.e., peer-reviewed threat severity). Because these threats have been linked to ecological health, the development of the index should be a useful tool to identify regions of greatest potential threat to aquatic biota and can aid in conservation planning for the Lower Colorado River Basin.}, keywords = {Anthropogenic threats, Ecological stressors, Freshwater conservation planning, Lower Colorado River Basin}, author = {Paukert, Craig P. and Pitts, Kristen L. and Whittier, Joanna B. and Olden, Julian D.} } @article {17, title = {Differences and implications in biogeochemistry from maximizing entropy production locally versus globally}, journal = {Earth System Dynamics Discussions}, volume = {2}, year = {2011}, month = {2011}, pages = {1 - 44}, abstract = {In this manuscript we investigate the use of the maximum entropy production (MEP) principle for modeling biogeochemical processes that are catalyzed by living systems. Because of novelties introduced by the MEP approach, many questions need to be answered and techniques developed in the application of MEP to describe biological systems that are responsible for energy and mass transformations on a planetary scale. In previous work we introduce the importance of integrating entropy production over time to distinguish abiotic from biotic processes under transient conditions. Here we investigate the ramifications of modeling biological systems involving one or more spatial dimensions. When modeling systems with spatial dimensions, entropy production can be maximized either locally at each point in space asynchronously or globally over the system domain synchronously. We use a simple two-box model inspired by two-layer ocean models to illustrate the differences in local versus global entropy maximization. Synthesis and oxidation of biological structure is modeled using two autocatalytic reactions that account for changes in community kinetics using a single parameter each. Our results show that entropy production can be increased if maximized over the system domain rather than locally, which has important implications regarding how biological systems organize and supports the hypothesis for multiple levels of selection and cooperation in biology for the dissipation of free energy.}, keywords = {climate changes, dynamics of the earth system, earth system change, earth system interactions with the biosphere, management of the earth system, sustainable development}, author = {Vallino, Joseph J.} } @article {23, title = {Distinguishing the Roles of Natural and Anthropogenically Forced Decadal Climate Variability}, journal = {Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society}, volume = {92}, year = {2011}, month = {02/2011}, pages = {141 - 156}, abstract = {Given that over the course of the next 10{\textendash}30 years the magnitude of natural decadal variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales, it is envisioned that initialized decadal predictions will provide important information for climate-related management and adaptation decisions. Such predictions are presently one of the grand challenges for the climate community. This requires identifying those physical phenomena{\textemdash}and their model equivalents{\textemdash}that may provide additional predictability on decadal time scales, including an assessment of the physical processes through which anthropogenic forcing may interact with or project upon natural variability. Such a physical framework is necessary to provide a consistent assessment (and insight into potential improvement) of the decadal prediction experiments planned to be assessed as part of the IPCC{\textquoteright}s Fifth Assessment Report.}, keywords = {adaptation strategies, decadal variations, predictability}, author = {Solomon, Amy and Goddard, Lisa and Kumar, Arun and Carton, James and Deser, Clara and Fukumori, Ichiro and Greene, Arthur M. and Hegerl, Gabriele and Kirtman, Ben and Kushnir, Yochanan and Newman, Matthew and Smith, Doug and Vimont, Daniel J. and Delworth, Tom and Meehl, Gerald A. and Stockdale, Timothy} } @article {24, title = {Drought duration and frequency in the U.S. Corn Belt during the last millennium (AD 992{\textendash}2004)}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {151}, year = {2011}, month = {02/2011}, pages = {154 - 162}, abstract = {Drought is among the most costly natural hazards affecting the United States, averaging $6 to $8 billion annually in damages, primarily in crop losses. Mitigating the impacts of drought through planning and preparedness has the potential to save billions of dollars. We used a new long tree-ring chronology developed from the central U.S. to reconstruct annual drought and characterize past drought duration, frequency, and cycles in the U.S. Corn Belt region during the last millennium. This is the first paleoclimate reconstruction achieved with subfossil oak wood in the U.S. and increases the current dendroclimatic record in the central U.S. agricultural region by over 500 years. A tree ring-width drought response function was calibrated and verified against monthly instrumental Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index (PHDI) during the summer season (JJA). Separate reconstructions tailored to emphasize high-frequency and low-frequency variations indicate that drought conditions over the period of instrumental records (since 1895) do not exhibit the full range of variability, severity, or duration of droughts during the last millennium. For example, three years in the last millennium were drier than 1934, a classic Dust-Bowl year and the driest year of the instrumental period. Thirteen decadal to multidecadal droughts (i.e., >=10 years) occurred during the last millennium {\textendash} the longest lasting sixty-one years and centered on the late twelfth century. Reconstructions exhibited quasi-periodicity at bidecadal and century-scale periods. Significant rhythms in drought were identified near 20-yr and 128-yr periods. The tree-ring drought reconstruction shows promise in providing new information about long-term climate variability in the agricultural regions that could potentially span multimillennia. We postulate that tree-ring chronologies (i.e., tree growth), thus far under-utilized in agricultural applications, have the potential to match contributions of instrumental climate data.}, keywords = {agriculture, Dendrochronology, Palmer drought, Quercus, Tree ring}, author = {Stambaugh, Michael C. and Guyette, Richard P. and McMurry, Erin R. and Cook, Edward R. and Meko, David M. and Lupo, Anthony R.} } @article {25, title = {Drought duration and frequency in the U.S. Corn Belt during the last millennium (AD 992{\textendash}2004)}, journal = {Agricultural and Forest Meteorology}, volume = {151}, year = {2011}, month = {02/2011}, pages = {154 - 162}, abstract = {We describe methods and progress in developing the American Long Oak Chronology (ALOC), an effort to construct an oak tree-ring chronology from the Central US that spans the Holocene. Since 2000, we have collected and measured ring widths on over 550 pieces of subfossil oak (Quercus) wood. Over 330 oak samples have been radiocarbon dated, with ages ranging up to 14,000 cal yr B.P. A 1,093- year-long tree-ring record has been constructed from live and subfossil bur oaks (Q. macrocarpa Michx.) and swamp white oaks (Q. bicolor Willd.) growing along and buried in sediments of streams that flow through northern Missouri and southern Iowa, USA. Here we describe the ALOC for the period A.D. 912{\textendash}2004 to demonstrate its dendrochronological value, display the material quality, and emphasize the importance of chronology construction. We also report on progress in developing older floating chronologies. The development of more long, multi-millennium chronologies will be an important contribution to dendroclimatology. These chronologies will be particularly useful to the Central US, a region with a continental climate and limited temporal depth of annually resolved paleorecords. Perhaps more critical is its location in the middle of one of the most important agricultural regions in the world.}, keywords = {Dendrochronology, Holocene, Iowa, Missouri, Quercus bicolor Willd., Quercus macrocarpa Michx., subfossil wood, Tree rings}, author = {Stambaugh, Michael C. and Guyette, Richard P. and McMurry, Erin R. and Cook, Edward R. and Meko, David M. and Lupo, Anthony R.} } @conference {65, title = {Determining and Mitigating the Impacts of Climate Change on Stormwater Management and Hydrology in Wisconsin}, booktitle = {Proceedings of the 2010 Watershed Management ConferenceWatershed Management Conference 2010: Innovations in Watershed Management under Land Use and Climate Change}, year = {2010}, pages = {5 - 5}, publisher = {ASCE}, organization = {ASCE}, address = {Madison, Wisconsin}, abstract = {

Studies on the impacts of anthropogenic climate change have found that the magnitude and frequency of intense precipitation events are expected to increase over the next century. The goal of this paper is to determine the projected changes in Wisconsin{\textquoteright}s precipitation using statistically-downscaled GCM data and assess how those changes will impact the design of stormwater-related infrastructure in the state. The primary findings are that the magnitude of low-frequency, high-intensity events are projected to experience significant but modest increases, and the total amount of precipitation and frequency of intense events during March and April are projected to increase as well. Adaptation strategies for the increases in low-frequency quantiles are available, and additional hydrologic studies are needed to determine the potential impacts of the March and April precipitation changes.

}, keywords = {climate change, Hydrology, stormwater management, WISCONSIN}, author = {Schuster, Zachary T. and Potter, Kenneth W.} } @article {47, title = {Diversity in destinations, routes and timing of small adult and sub-adult striped bass Morone saxatilis on their southward autumn migration}, journal = {Journal of Fish Biology}, volume = {77}, year = {2010}, month = {12/2010}, pages = {2326 - 2337}, abstract = {Almost three-quarters of the 46 young adult and sub-adult striped bass Morone saxatilis that were acoustically tagged in Plum Island Estuary, Massachusetts, U.S.A., in the summer of 2006 were detected in one or more southern coastal arrays during their autumn migration. On the basis of the trajectories along which these M. saxatilis moved from feeding to overwintering areas, three migratory groups emerged. After leaving Plum Island Estuary, about half of the fish were detected only in a mid-latitude array, Long Island Sound. The other half of the tagged fish were detected during autumn and winter in a more southern array, the Delaware Estuary. This latter group of fish may have used two routes. Some travelled to the Delaware Estuary through Long Island Sound while other fish may have taken a second, more direct, coastal route that did not include Long Island Sound. Consequently, a seemingly homogeneous group of fish tagged at the same time in the same non-natal feeding location exhibited a diversity of southward movement patterns that could affect population-level processes. These three groups that differed in overwintering location and migration route could be movement contingents with migratory connectivity.}, keywords = {estiarine, massachusetts, migration, Plum Island, striped bass, wintering}, author = {Mather, M. E. and John Finn and Pautzke, S. M. and Fox, D. and Savoy, T. and Brundage, H. M. and Deegan, Linda A. and Muth, R. M.} } @article {77, title = {Diagnosis of the record discharge of Arctic-draining Eurasian rivers in 2007}, journal = {Environmental Research Letters}, volume = {4}, year = {2009}, month = {12/2009}, pages = {045011}, abstract = {Aggregate annual discharge from the six largest Arctic-draining Eurasian rivers achieved an all-time record high in 2007, accentuating a long-term upward trend that argues for intensification of the Arctic hydrologic cycle. This record discharge was due in part to strong positive anomalies in late winter snow water equivalent across much of northern Eurasia. These anomalies arose in response to an unusual pattern of atmospheric circulation in late 2006 and early 2007, characterized by an extreme northeastward extension of the Icelandic Low and a contraction of the Siberian High. Positive net precipitation anomalies then continued into summer, further contributing to discharge.}, keywords = {atmospheric circulation, NAO, river discharge, SWE}, author = {Rawlins, Michael A. and Serreze, Mark C. and Schroeder, Ronny and Zhang, Xiangdong and McDonald, Kyle C.} } @article {273, title = {Distribution, species composition and management implications of seed banks in southern New England coastal plain ponds}, journal = {Biological Conservation}, volume = {142}, year = {2009}, month = {7/2009}, pages = {1350 - 1361}, abstract = {Buried seeds that germinate during periods of low water or water level drawdown can play important roles in shaping plant community composition, community dynamics and species richness in ecosystems with fluctuating water levels. Northeastern US coastalplainponds have fluctuating water levels and contain a characteristic shoreline flora that contains many rare plants. The objectives of this study were to: (1) test whether geographically distant ponds in Cape Cod and Martha{\textquoteright}s Vineyard had distinct seedbanks, (2) determine if hydrologic status as permanent and ephemeral ponds led to differences in seedbanks, and (3) examine seed diversity and seed abundance across gradients of shoreline elevations and sediment characteristics. Viable seeds of 45 plant species were identified from nine ponds. Native species dominated pond-shore seedbanks and made up 89{\textendash}100\% of all species. There was high overlap in seedbankcomposition across hydrological classes and geographic regions. One hydrological class captured 73{\textendash}76\% of total species and one geographical region captured 69{\textendash}78\% of the total species recovered from the entire suite of seedbank samples. Seeds were relatively evenly distributed along the shorelines of ephemeral ponds but seed diversity and abundance were lower at low elevations in permanent ponds. Results suggest that strategies to protect pond shorelines to capture maximum diversity of coastalplainpond plants contained in pond sediment seedbanks should be implemented across pond hydrologic classes and across a wide geographic area. Shoreline seeddistributions indicate that ground-water withdrawals or climate changes that lower pond water levels in permanent ponds will reduce the diversity and abundance of plants recovered from seedbanks by shifting water levels to a shoreline zone of high sediment organic matter where seed densities are lower. This effect will be much less in ephemeral ponds where seed diversity and abundance on pond bottoms was high.}, keywords = {freshwater wetland, pond shore, seed germination}, issn = {00063207}, doi = {10.1016/j.biocon.2009.01.020}, author = {Neill, Christopher and Bezerra, Maira Ometto and MCHORNEY, RICHARD and O{\textquoteright}Dea, Claire B.} } @article {71, title = {Divergence in seasonal hydrology across northern Eurasia: Emerging trends and water cycle linkages}, journal = {Journal of Geophysical Research}, volume = {114}, year = {2009}, month = {2009}, abstract = {Discharge from large Eurasia rivers increased during the 20th century, yet much remains unknown regarding details of this increasing freshwater flux. Here, for the three largest Eurasian basins (the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena) we examine the nature of annual and seasonal discharge trends by investigating the flow changes along with those for precipitation, snow depth, and snow water equivalent. On the basis of a multiperiod trend analysis and examination of station data, we propose two characteristic regimes to explain the long-term discharge increase from these large Eurasian rivers. Over the early decades from approximately 1936 to 1965, annual precipitation correlates well with annual discharge, and positive discharge trends are concurrent with summer/fall discharge increases. The latter decades were marked by a divergence between winter/spring flows, which increased, amid summer/fall discharge declines. A comparison of cold season precipitation (CSP) and spring discharge trends across subbasins of the Ob, Yenisei, and Lena shows limited agreement with one precipitation data set but good agreement (R2 > 0.90) when a second is used. While natural variability in the Arctic system tends to mask these emerging trends, spatial and temporal changes can generally be characterized by increased solid precipitation, primarily to the north, along with a drier hydrography during the warm season.}, keywords = {permafrost, river discharge, snow}, author = {Rawlins, Michael A. and Ye, H. and Daqing Yang and Shiklomanov, Alexander and McDonald, Kyle C.} } @article {85, title = {Downscaling Indonesian precipitation using large-scale meteorological fields}, journal = {International Journal of Climatology}, volume = {30}, year = {2009}, month = {09/2010}, pages = {1706 - 1722}, abstract = {This study investigates the skill of linear methods for downscaling provincial-scale precipitation over Indonesia from fields that describe the large-scale circulation and hydrological cycle. The study is motivated by the strong link between large-scale variations in the monsoon and the El Ni{\~n}o{\textemdash}Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and regional precipitation, and the subsequent impact of regional precipitation on rice production in Indonesia. Three different downscaling methods are tested across five different combinations of large-scale predictor fields and two different estimates of regional precipitation for Indonesia. Downscaling techniques are most skillful over the southern islands (Java and Bali) during the monsoon onset or transition season (Sep-Dec). The methods are moderately skillful in the southern islands during the dry season (May-Aug), and exhibit poor skill during the wet season (Jan-Apr). In northern Sumatra downscaling methods are most skillful during January to April with little skill during other times of the year. There is little difference between the three different linear methods used to downscale precipitation over Indonesia. Additional analysis indicates that downscaling methods that are trained on the annual cycle of precipitation produce less-biased estimates of the annual cycle of regional precipitation than raw model output, and also show some skill at reconstructing interannual variations in regional precipitation. Most of the skill of downscaling methods is attributed to year-to-year ENSO variations and to the long-term trend in precipitation and large-scale fields. While the goal of the present study is to investigate the skill of downscaling methods specifically for Indonesia, results are expected to be more generally applicable. In particular, the downscaling models derived from observations have been effectively used to debias the annual cycle of regional precipitation from global climate models. It is expected that the methods will be generally applicable in other regions where regional precipitation is strongly affected by the large-scale circulation.}, keywords = {downscaling, ENSO, Indonesia, monsoon, precipitation}, author = {Vimont, Daniel J. and Battisti, David S. and Naylor, Rosamond L.} } @article {110, title = {The digestive adaptation of flying vertebrates: High intestinal paracellular absorption compensates for smaller guts}, journal = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences}, volume = {104}, year = {2007}, month = {11/2007}, pages = {19132 - 19137}, abstract = {Anecdotal evidence suggests that birds have smaller intestines than mammals. In the present analysis, we show that small birds and bats have significantly shorter small intestines and less small intestine nominal (smooth bore tube) surface area than similarly sized nonflying mammals. The corresponding >50\% reduction in intestinal volume and hence mass of digesta carried is advantageous because the energetic costs of flight increase with load carried. But, a central dilemma is how birds and bats satisfy relatively high energy needs with less absorptive surface area. Here, we further show that an enhanced paracellular pathway for intestinal absorption of water-soluble nutrients such as glucose and amino acids may compensate for reduced small intestines in volant vertebrates. The evidence is that l-rhamnose and other similarly sized, metabolically inert, nonactively transported monosaccharides are absorbed significantly more in small birds and bats than in nonflying mammals. To broaden our comparison and test the veracity of our finding we surveyed the literature for other similar studies of paracellular absorption. The patterns found in our focal species held up when we included other species surveyed in our analysis. Significantly greater amplification of digestive surface area by villi in small birds, also uncovered by our analysis, may provide one mechanistic explanation for the observation of higher paracellular absorption relative to nonflying mammals. It appears that reduced intestinal size and relatively enhanced intestinal paracellular absorption can be added to the suite of adaptations that have evolved in actively flying vertebrates.}, keywords = {digestion, gut morphometrics, nutrient absorption, paracellular uptake}, author = {Caviedes-Vidal, Enrique and McWhorter, T. J. and Lavin, S. R. and Chediack, J. G. and Tracy, C. R. and Karasov, William H.} } @article {841, title = {Distribution and abundance of forest birds in low-altitude habitat on Hawai{\textquoteright}i Island: evidence for range expansion of native species}, journal = {Bird Conservation International}, volume = {16}, year = {2006}, month = {6/2006}, pages = {175}, abstract = {The Hawaiian honeycreepers are thought to be limited primarily to middle- and high-altitude wet forests due to anthropogenic factors at lower altitudes, especially introduced mosquitotransmitted avian malaria. However, recent research has demonstrated that at least one native species, the Hawai{\textquoteright}i {\textquoteright}Amakihi (Hemignathus virens virens), is common in areas of active malaria transmission. We examined the current distribution and abundance of native and exotic forest birds within approximately 640 km2 of low-altitude (0{\textendash}326 m) habitat on south-eastern Hawai{\textquoteright}i Island, using roadside variable circular plot (VCP) at 174 stations along eight survey transects. We also re-surveyed 90 stations near sea level that were last surveyed in 1994{\textendash}1995. Overall, introduced species were more abundant than natives; 11 exotic species made up 87\% of the total individuals detected. The most common exotic passerines were Japanese White-eye (Zosterops japonicus), House Finch (Carpodacus mexicanus) and Northern Cardinal (Cardinalis cardinalis). Two native species, Hawai{\textquoteright}i {\textquoteright}Amakihi and {\textquoteright}Apapane (Himatione sanguina), comprised 13\% of the bird community at low altitudes. Hawai{\textquoteright}i {\textquoteright}Amakihi were the most common and widespread native species, being found at 47\% of stations at a density of 4.98 birds/ha (95\% CI 3.52{\textendash}7.03). {\textquoteright}Amakihi were significantly associated with {\textquoteright}ohi{\textquoteright}a (Metrosideros polymorpha)-dominated forest. {\textquoteright}Apapane were more locally distributed, being found at only 10\% of stations. Re-surveys of 1994{\textendash}1995 transects demonstrated a significant increase in {\textquoteright}Amakihi abundance over the past decade. This work demonstrates a widespread recovery of Hawai{\textquoteright}i {\textquoteright}Amakihi at low altitude in southeastern Hawai{\textquoteright}i. The changing composition of the forest bird community at low-altitudes in Hawai{\textquoteright}i has important implications for the dynamics of avian malaria in low-altitude Hawai{\textquoteright}i, and for conservation of Hawai{\textquoteright}i{\textquoteright}s lowland forests.}, keywords = {forest birds, Hawai{\textquoteright}i, lowland forests}, issn = {1474-0001}, doi = {10.1017/S0959270906000244}, author = {SPIEGEL, CALEB S. and Hart, Patrick J. and Woodworth, Bethany L. and TWEED, ERIK J. and LeBrun, Jaymi J.} } @article {136, title = {Disciplinary breadth and interdisciplinary knowledge production}, journal = {Knowledge, Technology \& Policy}, volume = {11}, year = {1998}, month = {3/1998}, pages = {4 - 15}, abstract = {As the complexity of the challenges presented by our interactions with our planet continues to grow, we must develop new modes of knowledge production. In these modes, distinctions between multidisciplinary and inter-disciplinary activities and processes have renewed importance. There are at least two distinct types of interdisciplinary activities distinguished by the disciplinary breadth they attempt to bridge. In the narrow case, reductionist processes reveal a common underlying principle or process which can serve as a Rosetta stone. In the broad case, no such common arbiter exists. Investigators must develop integrating vocabulary in the context of the full breadth of their work.}, keywords = {climate science center}, author = {Gilbert, Lewis E.} }