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The Flu Shot's Not A Great Vaccine, But You Should Get One Anyway

We seem to be in the throes of an early beginning to the flu season. I’m not sure that the coverage, which would indicate this year is far worse than others, is anything other than premature, but that would be a good thing if it leads more people to get flu shots and to wash their hands more frequently. Every year, influenza kills tens of thousands of Americans, and there is no reason to take the many strains of the virus that are circulating lightly.

Flu shots? Lots of people don’t get them. They’re a nuisance to get, they can cause side effects including headache and fever, and lots of people are skeptical that they even work. And you know what? That skepticism is warranted. Influenza vaccine will only prevent infection 60% to 70% of the time, in the best of cases. That means that of every 10 people who would have gotten the flu without the shot, three or four still will. And flu shots can take two weeks to take effect. No wonder a lot of people complain that they got the shot and got sick anyway, or even that they suspect the shot gave them the flu. That’s exactly what you’d expect. I even wonder if the loud calls by public health experts can be counterproductive, because they leave people thinking that the flu shot is more effective than it is.

And flu vaccines work even less well in the elderly. The archaic technology for making them, which involves injecting influenza virus into chicken eggs and separating out the resulting antibodies, only allows for a few flu strains to be included and they must be picked far in advance. A recent review by a panel of expert scientists, including former executives from GlaxoSmithKline and Eli Lilly,  found that studies of the vaccines probably overstate their effectiveness. Most vaccines don’t get used unless they are 80% or 90% effective; of our commonly used vaccines, the flu shot is probably the worst.

As New York University bioethicist Arthur Caplan notes, that’s exactly why everyone should get one. We know that flu shots really do work at slowing the virus down. In the past, they’ve helped limit the spread of pandemics — see this video of legendary Merck vaccine-maker Maurice Hilleman talking about what happened in 1957. It’s healthy people, with healthy immune systems, in whom the vaccine works best.

Hopefully, in the future, we’ll have much better options when it comes to the flu vaccine. There’s already the live virus nasal flu vaccine, sold by AstraZeneca, and this year brought the first U.S. flu shots made in cell cultures, not chicken eggs, from Novartis. The real hope, though, is that a biotechnology company or drug maker will create a vaccine that works for a decade, or, better yet, works against all flu. A universal flu vaccine that could be given to infants could be a blockbuster on the scale of Pfizer’s Prevnar, the best-selling vaccine in the world. But in the meantime, we need to stick with the lame old flu shots we have.

Also: please wash your hands. Often. For twenty seconds at a time. That means you should stand there at the sink for as long as it takes to sing happy birthday twice. And if you see anybody jetting rapidly from the sink, it’s not impolite at all to ask them why they don’t care more about infants or the elderly.


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  • EdTaussig EdTaussig 2 years ago

    Just to connect the dots a little more explicitly for the non-scientific reader,
    it is often stated that: “Influenza vaccine will only prevent infection 60% to 70% of the time”
    but those are only the odds for a specific individual that is exposed directly to the flu virus. In reality, as more and more people get vaccinated, everyone’s odds of getting the flu actually go down, as you have less chance of being exposed to the virus in the first place, this is why it is so important that as many people as possible get vaccinated, even if you are very healthy, even if you have never gotten the flu in the past.
    If enough people get vaccinated, an epidemic can be stopped.
    Please get vaccinated!

  • You are so brain washed…. It isn’t often stated for no reason.. Vaccines are no guarantee in fact they generally cause more harm then help especially on younger individuals

  • Matthew Herper Matthew Herper, Forbes Staff 2 years ago

    Vaccines are no guarantee. But the y reduce risk of transmission. In my lifetime I have seen pneumococcal disease and chickenpox dramatically reduced. I am not brainwashed. I am simply not blind.

  • This is nonsense.. If you read this don’t allow anyone you care about to get any vaccine they will be fine without it http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eoMrkPLBuCs&feature=related



    Correlation and Causation aren’t the same thing but there are delayed effects and Herd Immunity is a weak argument as fully Vaccinated communities still come down with illness and affliction….

    Sigh I don’t understand the people who are really controlling vaccines honestly believe they stand to gain something by hurting people… Even if they succeeded fully …. They would live in a world with themselves..Miserlyness,Greed and any and all forms of negativity would take over.

  • xexon xexon 2 years ago

    I beg to differ.

    I’ve had ONE flu shot my entire adult life. And I’m an older adult now. I’m the healthiest person I know. Had a physical just this past week. The nurses struggled to find something in my paper thin medical records to talk about. But hey, maybe I’m the exception rather than the rule? Maybe it’s my 30+ years as a vegetarian? Or my love of bicycles? Or my low stress lifestyle?

    Infants and the elderly are at greatest risk. So perhaps for them, this shot is a good idea. The rest of you should probably try to live better lives so your immune system is in top condition to fight this stuff naturally.


  • Matthew Herper Matthew Herper, Forbes Staff 2 years ago

    The vaccine appears to be less effective in the elderly. One of the best ways to protect them is for others to get the shot.

  • EdTaussig EdTaussig 2 years ago

    That is incredibly selfish! Just because your odds of getting the flu -might- (no certainty) be lower than someone else, by not getting vaccinated, you *INCREASE* the risk that an elderly person, or an infant, or someone that isn’t in the best of health due to no fault of their own will get the flu! You don’t have to come down with obvious symptoms to be a carrier of the flu or to be able to spread it!!
    Nobody can predict who will come down with the flu, often people who are quite healthy -can- get it. Again, the more people that get vaccinated, the more you help protect the elderly, infants, and people who might not be as strong due to having an illness at the moment.

  • James James 2 years ago

    Have you ever heard of anything called a “carrier”?

    Let’s say that you, yourself, feel fine; you live a healthy, active lifestyle, with a robust immune system that fights off any sickness in a short period of time. That’s awesome. Unfortunately, if you’re an asymptomatic carrier (you have no symptoms, you’re not sick, but you’re still capable of transmitting the virus) then you can still get a hell of a lot of people sick–including the elderly and children.

    Herd immunity is a tactic that has proven itself against viruses and diseases in the past. If no one gets sick, then no one can pass that sickness on to those vulnerable to it. While eating right, being active, etc. is definitely good advice–it’s not a helpful solution to keeping the very young and very old free of infection (even if they get the vaccine themselves.)

  • John Hayes John Hayes 2 years ago

    @xexon, so the universe really does revolve around you? You’re enjoying your “low stress” lifestyle, so the thousands of people suffering from the flu should feel better?


  • john2011 john2011 2 years ago


    Hmm, organic foods, regular exercise, low stress lifestyle? Sounds a lot like the lifestyle of Native Americans in the 1400s before the continent was swept by epidemics of smallpox, measles, and other European illnesses.

    My guess is that it might be something else.