The dismal dash

Which economist will win the medal-prediction gold?

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Connect The Dots

China and America will vie for the most Olympic medals. And it is a bit puzzling since the average Chinese is smaller, lighter, less muscled and with a less endowed physique than Americans. There are no black Chinese athletes. Yet China eclipsed America in Beijing in Gold. And may eclipse the Americans in London for total medals. And may lead them for the long Olympic future. It is a reflection of a Chinese Century.
Olympic sports are a combination of strength, skill and stamina.
And Americans will dominant the brute strength competitions. This includes head-to-head team sports, sprints, most track and field events, and swimming.
But China takes the medals in the many and more numerous skill competitions. Many sports are about control and precision like shooting, archery, table tennis, and fencing. And Asian combat sports like Tae Kwon Do, Karate, Judo with various weight classes and gender, provide more than 5x the number of medals than ALL team sports combined.
-- Remember the world's most popular sport of soccer only gets two olympic gold medals in total. A smart nation would abandon its resources for Olympic soccer and plug those resources into obscure sports like badminton or canoeing.
Africa dominates the long distance running. And small countries with smart olympic policies pursue medals with analytical cost effectiveness. See Canada's "Own the Podium" policy which has yielded a dramatic bounty at the Winter Olympics. And Australia's olympic program for the Summer Olympics. Or the excellence of Norweign Winter sports.
Small countries can have a big footprint with wise leadership: seeking out the obscure sports with less competition and low thresholds for world class competition and expertise. This includes new sports, weight lifting, rhymic gymnastics and shooting sports.
And surprise-- despite drug screening, there are athletes in London that are secretly juicing steroids. There will be daily disqualifications with urinalysis.
But quantity has its own quality. And no small countries can approach America and China for its large talented populations. Good management of olympic resources can improve Olympic Medal productivity. I believe the American program is underachieving, and China is smartly punching above its weight. It will pay off in London.
David beat Goliath.
Work smarter not harder.


This opening ceremony is unbelievably bad. I can’t believe Danny Boyle actually is the mastermind behind this royal mess. totally boring. the only good (kinda) bits are the Queen/Bond and Mr. Bean. The opening is like a travelogue and then we get non-stop music videos. Olympics opening cermont is supposed to be spectacular and grand for the international audience. This has to be worst ever Olympics opening I’ve ever watched. What a huge yawn fest!!

Sodark in reply to Tom Coyne

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Frank Lowther

Can we count on The Economist to publish a follow-up on this once the Games are concluded and the medal count is in?


Tell these "economists" to stop making a fool of themselves!

They had already failed miserably in their own job. And now they stick their nose into something they don't belong.


Ok, so I'm watching the Opening Ceremony with my daughters..............not really feeling the symbolism of the whole "Isles of Wonder" spectacle................from agrarian to industrial.........so far.........now the history of the wars, etc...............my 17 year old says "Beijing was SOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much better!!!!"


The home effect is not totally unknown. Host countries fund their Olympians in the years running up to their hosting and then defund them afterwards to save money. Countries who put money into their young to help them perform will naturally do better at the Olympics. Britain is no different as we will see with the numerous emotional fees post Olympics not to cut funding and shut facilities.

guest-iomjeoj in reply to limimilliili

The trouble is, with the huge influx of immigrants from all over the world, and the left's constant beating of UK's psyche over sins of its colonial past, the British people are no longer sure who they are or what their country represents anymore.

Connect The Dots

Economist do it the easy way with statistical regression models dependent on past performances.

Hard core sports fans just power through the events and past performances of indiividual athletes and their fields at recent world cup and world championships. But nobody can specialize in all Olympic events--it would be a heptathalon pentathalon decatholon with a final iron man triatholon on steroids.

Sports magazines have comprehensive summaries and they variably predict a race between America and China for the top slots.

But all events are not equal...the Queen of Sports is Woman's Gymastics, similar to Woman's figure skating in the Winter Olympics....it is a pity to rate it equal to weight lifting or Greco wrestling.

The Americans tend to overweight team sports like Basketball, Baseball, Volleyball and Soccer...Each of these team sports is a single men's and women's gold medal. All COMBINED, less than Greco wrestling with its various weight classes.

Europe cares most about Men's Soccer. America care most about Men's Basketball. India cares most about Field Hockey. Cuba cares most about Baseball. Africa cares about the Marathon.

A smart nation like Australia targets the easy and low hanging fruit for maximal medal stash: rthymic gymanstics, shooting competitions, archery, and combat sports. Don't fall in love with any sport. Just go for the GOLD!

Australia won one bronze medal in the sports you name in 2008.

Overall I'd say Aust has won about half a dozen gold medals at all Olympics in these sports ( & none in rythmic gymnastics )

Aust wins most of it's medals in water based events -not really surprising when you think about it -outdoor sports rather than gymnasium based sports

David906 in reply to Connect The Dots

China has an effect similar to the old soviet one- central planning, massive social pressure to perform, not to mention a huge population that should have a proportionally huge number of super-talented genes. With their newfound riches and highly developed programs, it's a shame to China that they don't already dominate the Americans. (Not to mention that they don't yet face the obeisity epidemic in many western nations, which shrinks the pool of young athletes from which to choose and train future olympians.)

Not to mention, I don't think most countries' populace really cares about 'efficiently allocating resources to smaller sports in order to maximize number of medals'. That may be the goal in China, who knows, but in America kids tend to play whichever sport they love. Who cares if there's a medal for it.


This time, the medal will NOT go to an economist. They remind he public of the weathermen!!!

Best wishes

Kishore Nair from Mumbai

Tom Coyne

Serious economists have better things to do with scarce and costly resources such as time, effort and money than to sit around pretending a multiple step-wise regression will explain anything of substance. SHAME on the lot of them!

Tom Coyne


By the time when the caldron is extingushed, the greek coffers may become empty. Greeks may not able to receive pension checks and salaries. At the same time, Brits may start to feel the post olympic slump. Let's hope that all those stadiums don't become another ghost relics of the greek curse. Creating ghost towns every four years is damn silly!

XDRTQnBNFA in reply to Connect The Dots

"And Americans will dominant the brute strength competitions." Obviously because westeners are just big barbarians with no brains. Whereas "But China takes the medals in the many and more numerous skill competitions" becasuse the Asian races is far more superior in intellect. Your racism is showing connect the dots.



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