Wednesday, September 28, 2016

October Hurricanes in Louisiana

Tonight on FOX 8 Nicondra Norwood did a story showing Louisiana has had several major Hurricanes cross our coastline during the first week in October.  I have always said there was only one (1893), but that is incorrect.  Nicondra went back over the NHC records and found Hilda (1964) plus several far back in the 1860s that crossed our coast as Cat. 3 or higher.  Obviously the storms back in the 1860s had limited data, so I think it’s safe to say…IN MODERN TIMES, there have been only 2 major hurricanes cross our coastline after October 1st.   That’s 2 in 115 years making it a very rare event.   I bring this up because we are now tracking developing Tropical Storm Matthew  moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea that has some of the warmest water temperatures on the Planet.  Tonight’s satellite loops are indicating Matthew is becoming better organized and he’s likely to be a hurricane shortly.   Here’s what we do know tonight.  Matthew is moving due west at 15 mph.    Most computer models keep that direction for 2 more days before making a sharp turn to the north over the weekend.   IF that happens, Matthew will head east of Florida and NOT be a threat for the Gulf.  However, what if it doesn’t make the turn that the models currently indicate?     What if the turn doesn’t happen until Sunday or later?   A farther westward movement followed by a turn to the north would bring the Gulf into play.  So instead of trying to “blow smoke” and tell you I know where it’s going, I’ll just say we need to make sure it doesn’t get to 80 degrees west longitude (currently at 63.3 degrees) because that would be too late to keep it east of Florida.   Things to pay attention to tomorrow are 1)  forward speed (slowing down indicates a turn is coming) and 2) intensity as a stronger system will be affected by the upper trough now over the eastern states forcing a turn to the north, while a weaker system is likely to continue moving westward not affected by the upper steering.   So far NHC is predicting the turn around 75 degrees west taking Matthew just east of Jamaica.   That would be good for us.  If the turn doesn’t happen until after 80 degrees west, we will have to really pay attention Tuesday-Thursday of next week.  I certainly don’t want to have to work during my birthday week.  Yikes!  Of all the rudeness!   Until then, we have some noticeably drier air filtering into the Gulf South that will make for cooler overnight lows and less hot days.   Enjoy, but stay tuned!

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