More police unlikely to reduce already low...
Bookmark and Share
Mar 15, 2013  |  Vote 0    0

More police unlikely to reduce already low Canadian crime levels

Guelph Mercury

Contrary to conventional wisdom, more police in Canadian cities does not necessarily lead to less crime.

In fact, a new report from the Frontier Centre for Public Policy, a Winnipeg-based think-tank, examining the relationship between police staffing levels and crime found cities with more police tend to have more crime. Of course, the causality almost certainly runs in the other direction: that is, cities with more crime have more officers as a result. Nevertheless, hiring more police is not a silver bullet. Policing practices likely matter as much as staffing levels.

But aside from calling into question the simplistic logic that more police necessarily leads to less crime, the report raises a tricky question: if not more police, then what?

While providing some examples of potential methods to improve public safety, the report also highlights a notable lack of serious debate over much less politically salient, but potentially more cost-effective methods of crime reduction.

It’s important to recognize that while outbreaks of violent crime do happen in Canada, they are relatively rare. The most accurately comparable metric for judging public safety is the homicide rate. There is a large variance between the safest Canadian cities, such as Ottawa (with a homicide rate of 1.5/100,000 in 2010), to the highest, such as Saskatoon (4.4/100,000). This difference can’t be explained away by the number of police in Ottawa — the city has 153 officers per 100,000 residents, compared to 197 in Saskatoon.

There are many factors at play that can be difficult to disentangle. But let’s not forget just how low even Saskatoon’s homicide rate is in comparison to dangerous U.S. cities. In 2009, the homicide rate per 100,000 was 51.7 in New Orleans, 40.3 in St. Louis, 40 in Detroit, and 37.3 in Baltimore. In fact, the odds of being murdered by a stranger in Canada each year (1 in 500,000) aren’t that different than the odds of being struck by lightning (1 in 775,000).

While we shouldn’t be complacent about crime, there is no need to panic. Canadian cities do not face the type of crime epidemic seen in large American cities. Moreover, some level of homicides is virtually inevitable. For instance, domestic homicides often can’t be stopped, since they often occur within people’s homes.

Instead of increasing the number of officers, cities with notable crime problems should focus on more efficient policing practices, such as shifting toward more one-officer patrol cars. Moreover, the limitation of policing highlighted by the paper should cause us to think more about other methods of crime reduction.

Gang-related crime is typically at the forefront of crime reduction discussions. However, gang-related violence takes place between individuals who make their living evading the authorities. While some targeted interventions can be effective, serious reductions in gang-related violence would likely only be possible by undermining their business models, which can be done on the demand side by legalizing some prohibited substances, or on the supply side by reducing their prospective labour force. The former really depends on whether Canadians are willing to trade lower gang-related crime for potentially higher rates of drug use.

The latter strategy is likely less controversial, though it would likely have a more limited impact. Nevertheless, some programs targeted at keeping at-risk youth out of gangs have demonstrated success.

Another potential avenue for crime reduction not mentioned in the report, since it goes beyond police agencies, is a serious attempt at cracking down on repeat offenders. A recent Macdonald-Laurier Institute paper noted that 15 per cent of offenders are responsible for 58 per cent of all crime. Provincial and federal governments should give serious thought to harsher sentencing for repeat offenders to keep lifelong criminals off the streets.

Canadian politicians would better serve citizens by avoiding simplistic policy prescriptions such as hiring more police. More efficient staffing practices can free up officers to target the most troubled neighbourhoods, and targeted interventions to undermine criminal organizations can help to reduce crime rates.

But we also need to realize that there is a limit to how much crime can be reduced. People are imperfect, after all.

Steve Lafleur is a policy analyst at the Frontier Centre for Public Policy ( and is co-author of More Police Does Mean Less Crime. (Troy Media/

Bookmark and Share

(0) Comment

Join The Conversation Sign Up Login


In Your Neighbourhood Today