Humberto is the first hurricane in a quiet season so far

The Atlantic hurricane season is usually reaching its peak during the first half of September, but so far the season has been very quiet.

Humberto has just become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season. In the last 70 years only one season has seen the first hurricane form later.


There are various ways of measuring tropical storm activity including the number of storms, the number of hurricanes and something called the Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) Index. The latter measure takes into account both the strength and duration of storms and so gives a good indication of how active a season it has been. Whilst there have been eight tropical storms in the Atlantic so far, many have been weak and short-lived and thus the ACE Index is only running at 27% of where it would be in an average season at this time in the year.

It is not only the Atlantic which is seeing low levels of tropical storm activity. ACE Index across the whole northern hemisphere is running at 42% of average for this point in the season. There have only been two major typhoons in the west Pacific, which is an unusually low number.

It is worth noting that a quiet start to the Atlantic season does not necessarily mean the season will remain quiet. For example, in 2001 there had only been five tropical storms to this point in the season with just one becoming a hurricane. However, the remainder of the season saw another 10 tropical storms of which eight became hurricanes.

Official forecasts of current Atlantic tropical storms are provided by the National Hurricane Center. Visit our tropical cyclone pages for more information or follow @metofficestorms on Twitter.


3 Responses to Humberto is the first hurricane in a quiet season so far

  1. Any reason for hurricanes becoming fewer. What, if anything, does this predict?

    • Dave Britton says:

      Hello George
      New research from the Met Office has raised the possibility that man-made aerosols, industrial pollution, may have had an impact on the number of Atlantic hurricanes. You can read more about this here

  2. nuwurld says:

    Dear Met. Very interesting statistical breakdown. Thank you for that and the tentative remark to not think the season is over. Great reportage.

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