Driverless Cars Becoming More Real, Less Science Fiction

       By Ian Sherr and Mike Ramsey 

    Driverless cars are no longer the domain of science fiction.

    Auto manufacturers are beginning to roll out serious prototypes of vehicles that were once the thing of dreams: cars that can drive themselves. But as car companies begin to sow the seeds of adoption--with new technologies like advanced self-parking, lane-departure correction, and collision avoidance--larger questions are beginning to crop up: How serious is this effort, and how will society respond?

    The driverless car is nothing new; car manufacturers have been creating prototype devices for decades. What's changed is that the advanced computers and sensors needed to make this technology work is cheaper and easier to access.

    That type of technology is already what powers devices like Google Inc.'s (GOOG) driverless prototype car, which began road tests in 2009. It uses various cameras, global positioning sensors and lasers to orient itself on the road, watch for obstacles and map its route. Google engineers say the device is a better driver than its human passengers.

    "This [technology] is the starting path to the ultimate fully autonomous vehicle," said Derek Kuhn, vice president of sales and marketing at Research In Motion Ltd.'s (RIMM) QNX software unit, which writes software for major auto manufacturers. Changes are also happening under the hood, he said, where various sensors placed in modules and separate computers throughout the car are beginning to be consolidated, allowing them to work together in quicker and more efficient ways.

    Efforts are underway to have cars begin speaking to one another, alerting drivers in cars several lengths back of an obstacle in the road or even sensing that they are about to collide. There also is a push to rebuild traffic lights, parking spots and other mainstays of the modern road with smarter equivalents, which can plan and organize where various cars go.

    Customers aren't yet convinced. A poll conducted of 5,000 drivers last year by the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, the Washington lobby group for the industry, found 72% of people thought driverless cars were a bad idea. In that group, more than half conceded that the technology might work, but it was years from being safe.

    Still, the group also found that people who had been exposed to safety features like forward-collision warning systems or blind-spot monitoring had a more favorable view, said Gloria Bergquist, a spokeswoman for the alliance.

    Ms. Bergquist said the main concern of the industry right now is establishing whether car makers or drivers are liable if there is a crash while one of these systems is in use.

    No federal regulations about autonomous technologies are under consideration at the moment, though the Department of Transportation is keen to test them as a means to save lives. Michigan, Arizona and Oregon may take up legislation similar to that of Florida, California and Nevada this year to allow for the driverless cars to be tested on the roads.

    Thilo Koslowski, an analyst at Gartner, said at some point, government officials and customers alike will realize that autonomous technologies make for better drivers.

    "There are some bumps in the road, no pun intended, to get us to that level," he said.

    The winding road of consumer opinion and government regulation are part of why auto manufacturers have emphasized that autonomous technology is designed to act as a helpful copilot, rather than a driver substitute.

    But by 2016, Mr. Koslowski said, at least three companies will announce plans for vehicles that allow drivers to keep their hands off the wheels and feet away from the pedals at most speeds and weather conditions.

    "The autonomous vehicle and all these steps in between will lead to this," Mr. Koslowski said.

    Audi AG (NSU.XE) recently unveiled a new self-driving technology that it says can allow a car to seek out a parking space in a garage, find it and park all without a driver in the seat.

    Ford Motor Co. (F) has begun selling technology for its mass-market cars that can sense collisions before they happen and warn the driver. It also offers cars that can be parked merely with the driver controlling the gas and brake pedals while the car turns the steering wheel. And within the next five years, the company plans to offer traffic jam assistance, in which the car can take complete control of driving in bumper-to-bumper traffic for up to roughly 20 miles per hour.

    Many of the features being used in cars today use technologies like cameras and radars, said Paul Mascarenas, Ford's head of technology, effectively seeding the technology a driverless car would need. Then, he said, "it's about layering these technologies to make it all work, which is no small task."

    But manufacturers warn it's still not clear when driverless cars will be coming. Toyota Motor Corp.'s (TM) recent unveiling of an autonomous vehicle is seen as a strong vote in support of such technology. The company emphasized, however, that its current focus is on creating safety systems that help drivers, rather than taking the steering wheel out of their hands, a sentiment many auto manufacturers have expressed as well.

    "We always feel that with autonomous driving, the driver should always be in control," said Jim Pisz, head of Toyota's business strategy in North America. "It's a critical element to our philosophy: Autonomous does not mean driverless."

    -Write to Ian Sherr at and Mike Ramsey at